读者寄语: 不管是您想投资美股, 还是想投资港股， 保持好自己的心态是最重要的。特别在美股、港股市场拥有一套成熟的金融市场，市场鼓励长期持有，而不是短期的投机炒作。选择一个好的公司, 耐心的等待, 做时间的朋友。如果您想咨询美股开户、港股开户相关的问题, 或者您对美股、港股感兴趣可以添加微信交流: xiaobei060537
DowDuPont Inc. (NYSE:DWDP) Bernstein 35th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference May 29, 2019 9:00 AM ET
Ed Breen - Chief Executive Officer
- Ed Breen - 首席执行官
Jonas Oxgaard - Bernstein
- 乔纳斯奥克斯加德 - 伯恩斯坦
Great pleasure that I host Ed Breen with, well, this says DuPont here. It's still technically DowDuPont for another four days. I made a comment offhand a few weeks/months ago that this was the most complicated corporate action in corporate history. And I made that comment offhand, but I've since tried to substantiate it and I just cannot find one that's been more complicated.
The Pharmacia/Upjohn merger split, merger/merger split is close, but not quite. So we're now, well, some like to call it at the end of that journey. I know Ed likes to say that this is just the beginning of DuPont's journey. We'll talk about that, I suppose. But with that, Ed Breen's going to give a few prepared remarks and then we'll do the Q&A. As always, please write down questions on the little piece of paper, hold them up and one of our assistants will collect them and hand them over to me.
With that, Ed.
很高兴我主持Ed Breen，好吧，杜邦在这里说。 技术上还是DowDuPont还有四天。 几周/几个月前，我发表评论说这是公司历史上最复杂的公司行为。 我随便做了那个评论，但我已经试图证实它，我找不到一个更复杂的评论。
Pharmacia / Upjohn合并拆分，合并/兼并拆分很接近，但并不完全。 所以我们现在，好吧，有些人喜欢在那段旅程结束时给它打电话。 我知道艾德喜欢说这只是杜邦旅程的开始。 我想我们会谈论这个问题。 但有了这个，Ed Breen将准备一些准备好的言论，然后我们将进行问答。 和往常一样，请在小纸上写下问题，把它们拿起来，我们的一位助手将收集它们并交给我。
They had a nice nutrition and health business; we had a nice nutrition business. They have a great construction business; we had a great construction business. They were in electronics; we were in electronics. And I can go down the list with you. So we really got scale in a lot of what I consider great secular end markets that we want to be in, which has really created this portfolio. We already have and by the way, I would say we do benchmark best in class.
Our EBITDA margins are already running at 28% combined for DuPont. I'll talk in a minute about where I see some improvement opportunities. But a couple other metrics I like about the company is we are very globally diverse. We are 38% in Asia, we're 32% in North America, we're 25% in Europe, and we're 5%-6% in Latin America. So a pretty globally diverse company.
And one other interesting metric I like, I didn't always have this in my life when I ran my first couple companies, is we have no customer that is really large, one single customer we rely on or two or three. They're all important customers, but we only have three customers that are slightly over 1% of our sales. And by the way, two of them happen to be distributors who then distribute to hundreds of end customers themselves. So, very diverse customer base also.
So this is the portfolio up here on the chart. We really run as four independent segments. They have full P&L responsibility. R&D. Everything is embedded in the businesses. Very different than the way DuPont used to run with a matrix organization. And again, I think the cost structure you will see is best in class. There are two businesses where we're really driving the EBITDA margins up still. One is our nutrition and health business, which last year ran at 24%. That's a mix enrichment story. Our businesses like probiotics are growing faster at higher margins and you're watching those margins continue to drive up quarter after quarter in the business. So it's more the mix of business as we go forward.
In the safety and construction business we know we have room for improvement in that business. And again, we made great business again last quarter. We were up 330 basis points on margins year over year in the safety and construction business. And by the way, back to my thing about tracking key programs. A lot of the improvement in safety and construction was pricing discipline. We had 4% price last quarter and a big part of it was our factory efficiency program, because safety and construction has our bigger, tougher facilities that had a lot of room for improvement and we're seeing that come through in our results. So again, room for improvement, too.
I'd say electronics and transportation are both running at world-class EBITDA levels now. And by the way, so is nutrition and health if you study our peer set. 24% is a good margin. That doesn't mean, though, we can't improve it and we can continue to improve that. So last quarter when we announced our results, we were very I think clear with all of you investors that we're creating a non-core segment. These are assets that we're going to divest. It's about 10% of our portfolio.
We already over the last six to eight months divested six or seven businesses, so we'll be a little over 10% in total when we're done. I would give you kind of three metrics, although there's more thinking behind it than this. But these businesses organically last year, when DuPont grew last year, when DuPont grew 5% last year organically, these businesses were minus-3%. They're 23% EBITDA margins. DuPont's at 28%. And they're much more volatile businesses than the rest of the portfolio, just to give you kind of three metrics that I don't love. By the way, we will get good money for these businesses.
They're nice businesses. 23% EBITDA margins is nothing to sneeze about. That's good for a lot of companies. So, we'll divest these as quick as we can. One caveat I'd put on there. The Hemlock JV will probably take us a little bit longer because we do have two partners in that JV that we've got to work our way through. But again, very focused on cleaning up the portfolio as we move forward. By the way, if I just give you a high level, running DuPont and the way I really look at it, and I'd say the single biggest change from the way DuPont was run for 20 years before is we're very focused on the two big spend buckets.
We have the G&A totally in control, where we want it. We're lean and mean. Our corporate expense is going to be 6/10th of 1%. I've always said world class is under 1%. We're well below 1%. By the way it used to be 3.5 years ago 2.3% of sales, so you can see what we've done to run kind of the overhead structure lean. But where we spend money, and we spend pretty heavily I think, is on R&D and CapEx. And we have a maniacal focus on returns on those two piles of cash.
So we spend $900 million a year on R&D, which is 4% of sales, and we spend 4% to 5% of sales on CapEx. And we track every single program, the timing of it, who's responsible, what's the return going to be on the program. And to me, that's not that hard to do, to track $2 billion of spend, track those programs as you move forward. And that's what's really driving, and in my opinion will continue to drive, our ROIC up very nicely. We have had great progress the last three years significantly driving up ROIC. And we'll be driving that up in at least the mid-30s on an incremental basis and continue to get at least 100 basis point improvement year over year as we move forward. And from a free cash flow conversion standpoint, we've committed to over 90%. But quite frankly, we've been over 100% the last three years so we should be able to keep that whole conversion going.
On the CapEx side, I would just make one other point. Most of our programs are 10, 15, 20 million kind of safe return programs. We only have three big ones and they're all to expand our growth capability because we're out of capacity. One is, our biggest CapEx is Tyvek. We're adding line 8. That's $400 million over three years. That's more because of Tyvek on medical packaging, not because of house wrap as you would normally think of Tyvek. That's a very fast-growing area for us.
他们是好事。 23％的EBITDA利润无助于打喷嚏。这对很多公司都有好处。所以，我们会尽可能快地剥离它们。我要在那里提出一个警告。 Hemlock合资公司可能会花费我们一点时间，因为我们在合资公司中有两个合伙人，我们必须通过这个合作伙伴。但是，在我们前进的过程中，我们再次专注于清理投资组合。顺便说一句，如果我只是给你一个高水平，运行杜邦和我真正看待它的方式，我会说杜邦在20年之前运行的最大变化是我们非常专注于这两个大花钱。
Our second one is our Kapton line, which we're spending $220 million on. Again, we're out of capacity and we need more Kapton as you move into 5G cellphones. And we just finished our $100 million expansion on probiotics, which again we were out of capacity and needed that. So that's our three big ones. Everything else is very safe incremental kind of return projects that we have. We are very focused on our R&D on kind of the macrotrends we like. I won't get into the
detail. We can talk more about this, but we've really said, all right, where is the places we want to double down on our spending. And we just think our portfolio plays into a lot of great macrotrends that we just think we're going to really like for the next 5, 10, 15 years.
And as I just mentioned a minute ago, just the one. I don't know exactly when 5G networks will get built out in a big way. Everyone has a different answer to it. But 5G is coming and we've got some neat technologies and opportunities there as an example as we move forward. So we're going to spend our R&D where we see these high growth secular areas that we like. So these are kind of our priorities moving forward. We are very focused on getting price. So when I go back to organic growth, for the last three years we have basically quarter in and quarter out, until the last quarter which I'll talk about in a moment, we were last quarter which I'll talk about in a moment, we were running 5% organic growth. So we can run a little above GDP on a consistent basis. But we get it both through volume and price. And if you kind of look at the last three years and just kind of average it all out, we were getting about 3% volume, 2% price, which got you to 5%. So we're again very focused and we've got to be very disciplined about pricing.
Pricing is key when we launch all our new products. We launch so many products every year you've got to get the right price for it out of the chute. So that discipline is really important to us. We're still getting the synergies from the merger. Again, remember, almost half this portfolio came together with the other half. So we got $130-some million in the first quarter. We're going to get about $450 million in additional synergies this year. And it'll be about $150 million, $160 million left to get the following year in 2020 and then we'll be through the synergy program. And again, very focused as I said on ROIC and driving that up as we go forward.
So by the way, we hit December and we saw a major downturn in about 20% of our portfolio and it was totally tied to China consumer spending, and it was really two main end markets, which by the way we're very big in so it definitely affected us, and that was smartphones and the auto business. And it was pretty amazing the drop that occurred. Literally, you got to December and auto sales were down 18% in China, so it was a very significant drop off that occurred. So, that 20% of the portfolio is still running at a lower level. We're going through a destocking phase.
当我们推出所有新产品时，定价是关键。我们每年推出这么多产品，您必须从滑槽中获得合适的价格。因此，纪律对我们来说非常重要。我们仍然从合并中获得协同效应。再说一遍，记住，这个投资组合的近一半与另一半一起。所以我们在第一季度获得了130美元 - 几百万美元。今年我们将获得约4.5亿美元的额外协同效应。这将是大约1.5亿美元，到2020年将获得1.6亿美元，然后我们将通过协同计划。而且，正如我在ROIC上所说的那样非常专注并在我们前进的过程中推动它。
So we think the destocking is going to still last through this quarter. Now, that doesn't mean automobiles just come back miraculously. But once you get through the destocking, the severe downturn kind of ends and then we'll see where volumes end up in the business. And we're pretty confident on the smartphone side. We're a big player in high-end smartphones. We have more content to go into them and we have all the new product launches from the big cellphone – or providers of smartphones that are coming out in the September October timeframe for the holiday season, and we know the orders we're getting there that we're going to participate in.
It's interesting. The other 80% of the portfolio kind of running just like it's been. No real change there. And that comment is also true of in China. The rest of those businesses, if you track them in China, the industrial businesses, the water business and all are running just normally as they were. It was really the consumer-driven high-ticket items that kind of took a downturn here. And again, we think that lasts through this quarter still, the first and second quarter. We see some uplift as we go into the third and fourth quarter. From a financial policy standpoint, we're where we want to be. We want to be a strong BBB plus so that's important to us. We are announcing a share repurchase program as soon as the new board is officially constituted, some day next week, and we will announce a $2 billion program and we will be buying shares back in this calendar year once we get that approved.
From a guidance standpoint, in a press release this morning we definitely reconfirmed our guidance. You can see what it is here. I won't go through all the details with you. Again, we need some stabilization on the auto side in China, mostly destocking then. I don't need the market to grow 3%-4% because we will outpace auto builds by about 10%, which we've done quarter in and quarter out, because we play in the light weighting of vehicles and electrification and they're just a faster growing area. We get both volume and price and we expect that trend to continue, but the destocking to end. And maybe I'll just close with the last bullet point here because I've talked about the others. One of the fun parts about the new DuPont is I think we can run this company really well the way we're organized now. It's a great company to run like this. I think we're going to be really able to drive up our returns as I talked about. But it's a fundamental portfolio because there is optionality in this portfolio. And kind of the way I would just describe it to you, I think we're going to run a great Company and create a lot of value for our shareholders. We will definitely be studying all the other options available to us. And if there's something else that's a way to create significant long-term value for our shareholders, we will not be shy about pursuing that path also. So, it kind of gives us a lot of options to create the value for all of you as we move over the next few years.
所以我们认为去库存化将持续到本季度。现在，这并不意味着汽车奇迹般地回归。但是，一旦你完成去库存化，严重的经济衰退就会结束，然后我们会看到交易量最终会在业务中出现。我们对智能手机方面非常有信心。我们是高端智能手机的重要人物。我们有更多的内容可以参与其中，我们拥有大型手机的所有新产品发布 - 或者是假日季节9月10月即将推出的智能手机供应商，我们知道我们在那里获得的订单我们要参加。
I think with that, Jonas, I'll just do Q&A.
As a reminder, please, if you have questions write the little notes, hold them up and our assistants will collect them and give them to me. Don't be shy. So with that, would you mind talking about the very last thing you talked about, optionality. I know you've been asked this ad nauseum, but how do you think about your portfolio in the both near and longer term?
提醒一下，如果你有问题写下小笔记，请把它们拿起来，我们的助手会把它们收集起来送给我。 别害羞。 那么，你有没有想过谈论你谈到的最后一件事，选择性。 我知道你被问到这个广告很糟糕，但你如何看待你的投资组合近期和长期？
Yes. So look, once we clean up the portfolio with the 10%, we want to sell, the secular areas we're in, where we're growing, I really like. I mean you've probably heard me say this before. I've run a few different companies and this portfolio is a good portfolio. So I like all that. And again, I think we can run it great. We have been running it well. I think all the metrics, when you track them, we've been improving on. So that's an option. But I'm a big believer, and I've talked to the board about this optionality thing. And if there really is a path that creates significant value for shareholders by doing some other transaction or so, we would definitely look at it. We're not going to let ego stand in the way. We want to do the right thing.
是。 所以，看看，一旦我们以10％的价格清理投资组合，我们想要出售，我们所处的世俗领域，我们正在成长的地方，我真的很喜欢。 我的意思是你之前听过我说过这个。 我经营过几家不同的公司，这个投资组合很好。 所以我喜欢这一切。 而且，我认为我们可以很好地运行它。 我们运行得很好。 我认为所有指标，当你跟踪它们时，我们一直在改进。 所以这是一个选择。 但我是一个坚定的信徒，我已经和董事会讨论过这种可选性问题。 如果真的有一条通过做其他交易左右为股东创造重大价值的道路，我们肯定会关注它。 我们不会让自我阻碍。 我们想做正确的事。
Okay. And what about spinning off some companies? I mean that's what you ended up doing at Tyco. So rather than selling, spinning into separate entities.
好的。 那些剥离一些公司怎么样？ 我的意思是你最终在泰科做的事情。 因此，而不是出售，旋转成独立的实体。
Yes. So there's a whole bunch of ways you could go about it. One would be looking at the option of do you spin them all – by the way, each of those four companies is pretty much the market leader in that space. I'd put a couple others in each category, like the nutrition and health, kind up near our size although we are the biggest. You'd put a company like Kerry. You'd put Givaudan up there. They're great companies. So you could definitely put all these companies on their own. Probably the electronics Company would be the largest in the space also. Integris and Versum, if they merged they would have been a nice number two, but this would be a market leader in that business.
So, an option to study would be just what you just asked, but there's also all kinds of interesting things we have to look at, which would be maybe structured transactions with other companies that would be very beneficial potentially to shareholders. You'd get a lot of synergies. You'd create a de facto world leader in the business, and you'd be very tax efficient for our shareholders. So you've got to look at all that possibility also. And again, whichever option is the most beneficial we should pursue it. I will say just legally, if we look at things like a structured transaction or things like that, we can't have any substantive conversations with other companies until after September, which is the two-year anniversary of the Dow merger, for tax reasons.
是。所以有很多方法可以解决它。人们会考虑选择将它们全部旋转 - 顺便说一下，这四家公司中的每一家都是该领域的市场领导者。我会在每个类别中添加其他几个，比如营养和健康，虽然我们是最大的，但它们接近我们的规模。你会把像克里这样的公司。你把奇华顿放在那儿。他们是伟大的公司。所以你绝对可以把所有这些公司都放在自己的位置上。电子公司可能也是该领域最大的电子公司。 Integris和Versum，如果他们合并，他们将是一个不错的第二，但这将成为该业务的市场领导者。
Yes. And there's almost an academic or philosophical debate, but the value of a conglomerate versus focused businesses. I know we've talked about this again over the years, but has your thinking evolved on that? Where are you now?
是。 几乎有一个学术或哲学辩论，但一个集团与重点企业的价值。 我知道这些年来我们已经再次讨论过这个问题了，但你的想法是否已经发展了？ 你现在在哪里？
So I'm where I've always been on this topic. And it's fascinating to watch all these other conglomerates going through what they're going through. It's pretty interesting. And most of them I've talked to along this path I've talked to along this path about it. But there's a whole bunch of questions you have to answer, and I'll just give you the high level one that I always kind of look in the mirror and I always say to myself, is what value is the corporate office bringing to the table? Are you a better capital allocator than each of the individual businesses, or are you driving the M&A decisions or the businesses? And you really have to answer why you're running it that way and is that the best path. Are you the best at doing each of the things you should look at?
By the way, if you can answer that question that's a pretty nice conglomerate to run. And can you do it year in and year out very consistently the right way? You've got to kind of – you have to take your ego out of it and really have an honest conversation about what's the best path. When you have to make the top 10 decisions, is it better that you have the corporate umbrella, or can each business do it better?
And then you have to go to my last point about structure. Can you create a powerhouse in an industry that potentially creates a lot of extra value with extra synergies, scale and R&D? And you've got to answer those questions.
顺便说一句，如果你能回答这个问题，那就是一个非常好的企业集团。你可以一年又一年地以正确的方式做到这一点吗？你必须要做到这一点 - 你必须把自己从自我中解脱出来，并真正坦诚地谈论什么是最好的道路。当你必须做出前10个决定时，你有更好的公司保护伞，或者每个企业能做得更好吗？
Okay. And in your view, what would Wilmington add to the conglomerate over the next couple of years?
Well, I think it – by the way, it's a great management team. It's a great operating team and I think it's just – look at all the metrics the last three years, how we've driven things. So we have very key programs that we drive out of corporate. By the way, the businesses do it, but we track it. We've driven them across all these key metrics, like our pricing metric, like our factory efficiency program, like our ROIC, how are we going to improve that.
We've very maniacal, as I said, about ROIC. So a lot of that's been driven from kind of a top and then really driving it into the company. By the way, ROIC, for instance, we're just putting it in our pay metric now that we've been DuPont. It's never been in the metric which I don't like. It needs to be there, and everyone's got to wrap their head around it. So there's a lot of great things that we drive, and I think we're going to add a lot of value.
The question is very simple. Can you add more value doing something else? And by the way, I don't view it any different than my Tyco days. Tyco was doing very, very well. I went to the board and said I think we can create way more value by doing some other – making some other decisions. And I remember most of the board members were like you've got to be kidding me, Ed. Like, why would you do that? You're running a great company and all this and that. And our stock was up a lot. And I think the other path was a better path in that decision as it played out over five, six, seven years.
嗯，我认为 - 顺便说一句，这是一个伟大的管理团队。这是一个伟大的运营团队，我认为只是 - 看看过去三年的所有指标，我们如何驱动事物。因此，我们有非常关键的计划，我们驱逐出公司。顺便说一下，企业会这样做，但我们会跟踪它。我们已经将它们推向了所有这些关键指标，比如我们的定价指标，比如我们的工厂效率计划，就像我们的ROIC一样，我们将如何改进它。
问题很简单。你能在其他方面增加更多价值吗？顺便说一下，我认为这与我的泰科时代没什么不同。泰科的表现非常非常出色。我去了董事会，说我认为我们可以通过做其他事情来创造更多的价值 - 做出其他决定。我记得大多数董事会成员都像是在开玩笑，Ed。就像，你为什么要这样做？你正在经营一家伟大的公司以及所有这一切。我们的库存增加了很多。而且我认为另一条道路在这个决定中是一条更好的道路，因为它在五年，六年，七年之后发挥了作用。
Fair enough. So you mentioned very early on that the new DuPont here is very different from the old DuPont. Can you elaborate on that beyond just the portfolio being different? How else would you characterize it?
很公平。 所以你很早就提到新杜邦在这里与旧杜邦非常不同。 除了投资组合不同之外，您能详细说明吗？ 你还有什么特点呢？
Yeah. So look, there was a lot of great things about DuPont I liked when I got there, and I'll just give you one really core strength of the company is its application engineering. It is so embedded at the people level with our customers, solving problems for them. It's really incredible to watch. And by the way, it's across almost all our industries. And I've never seen it like that in my whole career, where that relationship is literally like a partnership.
So there's a ton of things I liked about it, but it was a very matrix organization. No one, in my opinion, was responsible for the ultimate decisions and performance of the company. Literally almost half the people in the company reported in separate matrix organizations outside the business. A lot of the R&D did, Jonas. A lot of the operations and marketing was literally outside of the businesses. So you sort of had the business presidents sort of like the front end of a company, not controlling any of the back end of the company. So we collapsed everything together. And if you remember, that's how I took $1 billion of cost that's how I took $1 billion of cost out at DuPont, literally in my first three or four months. It was actually not that hard to do because we organized it all into the business. So I say that was a humongous change.
And then instituting a real culture of returns was something I didn't feel was embedded in the thinking of the company well enough. So we really drove that into the company. And again, I said it's not hard to manage a $900 million R&D spend and a $1.1 billion CapEx spend and track every program and make sure you're getting the right return. It's just not that hard to do. And there just wasn't a focused enough process around that in the company. So I'd say just high level, that's kind of the cultural change we've been going through.
Okay. What is your role as Executive Chairman? People are a bit confused about the structure. This is like a European setup with an Executive Chairman that is still in the business and a CEO running the day to day.
好的。 你担任执行主席的角色是什么？ 人们对结构有点困惑。 这就像一个欧洲的设置，一个执行主席仍然在业务中，并且是一个日常运营的CEO。
Yes. So it's not totally the way it is, but generally speaking, I'm going to focus very heavily on the strategy of the company and what decisions we want to make or not make moving forward. So you just said one high level there. Marc Doyle will be very focused on the operations of the company, which he has been. He's been running these set of businesses, well, not the whole thing because we put some, but for basically the last three years. Obviously, I'm very involved in all the metrics of how we're going to get there but let them drive the company operationally. And I think because of the options we have in the company, or potential options we have in the company, I'm going to put a lot of my thinking around that. And I am going to be doing it on a full-time basis.
是。 所以它并不完全是这样，但总的来说，我将非常关注公司的战略以及我们想要做出或不做出哪些决定。 所以你刚才说了一个高级别。 Marc Doyle将非常专注于公司的运营，他一直都是。 他一直在经营这些业务，好吧，不是因为我们放了一些，但基本上是过去三年。 显然，我非常关注我们将如何实现目标的所有指标，但让他们在运营中推动公司发展。 而且我认为，由于我们在公司中的选择，或者我们在公司中的潜在选择，我将围绕这一点进行大量的思考。 我将在全职的基础上进行。
Okay. And with Tyco, you eventually engineered your own obsolescence or whatever you want to call it. You divested until the last business was small enough that it really wasn't worth your time running it. At which point would you be obsolete here?
好的。 而对于Tyco，你最终设计了自己的过时或任何你想称之为的东西。 你离开了，直到最后一项业务足够小，以至于你真的不值得花时间去运行它。 那么你会在这里过时吗？
That's hard to answer.
Yes, that's a hard one to answer. But let me say it this way. I'm committed to staying as long as I feel like there's a lot of value to be created and there's, we've looked at all the options. So it's not a short-term thing. I'm not here for six months. It's, I'm here for quite a while.
是的，这很难回答。 但是让我这样说吧。 只要我觉得有很多价值可以创造，我就会坚持下去，而且我们已经考虑了所有的选择。 所以这不是一个短期的事情。 我已经六个月了。 是的，我在这儿已经有一段时间了。
Okay. Let's talk about the economy and the impact on you guys. The economy, trade war, the combination of them, how does that impact you in the near term? And if it doesn't get any better, what should we expect the next couple of years to look like?
好的。 让我们来谈谈经济以及对你们的影响。 经济，贸易战，它们的结合，这对你在短期内有何影响？ 如果它没有变得更好，我们应该在未来几年看到什么？
Yes. So it was interesting. The actual supply chain part of the trade war, which is always the first question you get asked, was minimal to us. So on the DuPont side it maybe cost us about $50 million of EBIT on $6.5 billion of EBIT, so it's kind of a rounding error. That wasn't the real impact. I think the impact is exactly what you're hearing from everyone else now. It was I think the confidence of the consumer in China got hit by two things. One, the lending standards and shadow banking system got tightened up starting kind of in the early fall. And you could start to see auto sales, if you just tracked that, start to drift down every single month. September, October, November it's drifting down.
And then in December it really went, just like Tim Cook at Apple, I got up it said on the smartphones. I think Samsung said the same thing. And I'm convinced that it was more the concern over the tariff talk that kind of just ruined the confidence of the consumer to spend on big ticket items. Again, all the industrial business in China humming along, doing fine. So it was really a fascinating situation.
So my gut is – if this continues for a while, my gut is consumer spending is going to be a little bit weaker there. Again, there's two issues going on, though. There's destocking, which you do get through. Supply chain corrects itself. And then what's the real volume level and that would be the question mark if this thing lingers on. Are you going to get positive growth, flat growth? Who knows the answer to that?
所以我的直觉是 - 如果这种情况持续一段时间，我的直觉是消费者支出在那里会稍微弱一些。不过，有两个问题正在发生。有去库存，你通过。供应链纠正自己。然后是什么是真正的音量水平，如果这个东西徘徊，那将是问号。您是否会获得正增长，持续增长？谁知道答案呢？
And are you seeing any indicators on which way we're heading in your current business?
So through April and into May the order rates and sales rates are basically what we thought. We didn't expect to see any improvement in about 20% of the portfolio. The other 80% is running up just about kind of how we thought. The 20% is also. We should see order pickup in June because, if you track back the supply chain, that's when we get orders in the T&AP business for auto builds. My assumption, we're through destocking which I'd say we're about 80% through if you track the numbers, the third-party numbers that are out there. And the smartphones we know we're getting orders because it's for the new models that are all getting introduced in the September/October timeframe.
And remember one thing on this that I think people don't fully get is we – in a typical cellphone, we sell about $0.50 just on a regular run-of-the-mill cellphone. If it's a high-end smartphone we sell about $2.50 into the phone. The phones coming out, the high-end phones coming out in September October are 5G antenna enabled. We sell about north of $5.00 in that phone. So we know there's orders coming. The issue is how many units will get sold and how well do the models do. But those models are all being introduced then and we get those – we know kind of the months we get those orders.
所以到4月份到5月份，订单率和销售率基本上都是我们的想法。我们预计大约20％的投资组合不会有任何改善。另外80％的人正在考虑我们的想法。 20％也是。我们应该会在6月份看到订单回升，因为如果您追踪供应链，那就是我们在T＆AP业务中获得汽车构建订单的时候。我的假设是，我们通过去库存来说，如果你跟踪数字，那么第三方的数字就会超过80％。而我们知道的智能手机我们正在获得订单，因为这些新型号将在9月/ 10月的时间框架内推出。
记住一件事，我认为人们并不完全得到我们 - 在一部典型的手机中，我们只是在普通的普通手机上卖出约0.50美元。如果它是一款高端智能手机，我们会在手机上卖出约2.50美元。手机问世，10月9日推出的高端手机启用了5G天线。我们在那部手机上售价约为5.00美元。所以我们知道订单即将到来。问题是出售的单位数量以及模型的表现如何。但那些模型都是当时引入的，我们得到了那些 - 我们知道我们得到这些订单的那几个月。
Okay. And if it gets worse, if we end with an actual recession, how do you see both your growth and your margins evolving in that scenario?
Yeah. So what we would do, and we've already laid out an 8- or 9-point plan, which don't take this as I'm overly panicked about a recession. I'd do this anyway just to be ready. We've kind of laid out a bunch of steps we would take in the company. One thing I would not touch is the R&D. I remember when '08, '09 hit, I remember saying to our team keep spending exactly what you're spending on R&D because we'll come out of it stronger. But we would take more cost actions. We would do things like furloughs. I would not kill the CapEx programs, but I would delay some of the growth initiatives, spread it out more. We would take those kinds of steps. And our goal – again, it depends on what you call a recession. If you want to go to '08, '09, just as an example, which I can't imagine that, this portfolio, we tried to reconstruct it to kind of see what happens in a downturn.
And most industrial companies, if you lumped all industrial companies together – so you've got to do each one individually, obviously. But if you lump them all together, revenues dropped at the very worse of that recession 18% for industrials. As a lump.
Our portfolio, the way we tried to reconstruct it and look back at what these pieces did, we would drop 14% to 15%. And the one – the biggest reason is our nutrition and health business would not drop like the electronics business would, for instance, to use an example. It just holds up way better, more like Covidien did in Tyco. If you're going to get an operation, you're getting your operation. I don't care if there's a recession going on. So it just holds up better and that's 30% of our portfolio. But we would definitely take some pretty significant actions on kind of the G&A cost side in a recession.
是啊。那么我们会做什么，而且我们已经制定了一个8点或9点的计划，由于我对经济衰退过度恐慌，所以我们没有采取这种计划。无论如何我只是为了做好准备。我们已经制定了一系列我们将在公司采取的措施。我不接触的一件事是研发。我记得08年'09年的时候，我记得在我们的团队中继续说你正在花费在研发上的费用，因为我们会更强大。但我们会采取更多的成本行动。我们会做像休假这样的事情。我不会杀死资本支出计划，但我会延迟一些增长计划，将其分散开来。我们会采取这些步骤。我们的目标 - 再次，这取决于你所谓的经济衰退。如果你想去'08，'09，作为一个例子，我无法想象，这个投资组合，我们试图重建它，看看在经济低迷时期会发生什么。
大多数工业公司，如果你把所有的工业公司集中在一起 - 所以你必须单独做每一个，显然。但如果把它们全部混为一谈，那么工业企业的收入就会在经济衰退的18％左右下降。作为一个肿块。
我们的投资组合，我们尝试重建它的方式以及回顾这些产品的作用，我们将下降14％至15％。而一个 - 最大的原因是我们的营养和健康业务不会像电子商务那样下降，例如，使用一个例子。它只是保持着更好的方式，就像Covidien在Tyco所做的那样。如果您要进行手术，您就可以开始手术了。如果经济衰退，我不在乎。所以它只是更好地占据了我们投资组合的30％。但我们肯定会在经济衰退时对G＆A成本方面采取一些非常重要的行动。
Okay. And is there anything else that you would say is in your control in a recession scenario that – at least as a short-term measure?
好的。 在衰退情景中你还有什么可以说是你可以控制的 - 至少作为一个短期措施？
Well, the other, yes, there's a bunch of things in your control, but the one thing that you'd have to look at, and it depends on what the recession is, how it hits, is you'd really have to still stay disciplined on your product launches and pricing. I mean there's two things. We consistently get price in the portfolio, which you should get in a specialty company. You get it from just the discipline across the board. It's capacity tight. You probably lose that in a recession, or you don't get that part of it. But we launch so many new products every year. I always like to use the Apple. They're great at pricing new products. We've got to be really disciplined to get the margin on the new stuff. We're obviously bringing a benefit when we launch a product. There's an extra benefit, get the pricing. So you want to definitely be maniacal about that discipline. In any period of time, but especially as you maybe hit a little recession area.
好吧，另一方面，是的，你手中有很多东西，但是你需要关注的一件事，这取决于经济衰退是什么，它是如何打击的，你真的还需要 对您的产品发布和定价保持纪律。 我的意思是有两件事。 我们一直在投资组合中获得价格，您应该在专业公司获得。 你从全面的学科中得到它。 这是容量紧张。 你可能会在经济衰退中失去这一点，或者你没有得到它的那一部分。 但是我们每年推出这么多新产品。 我总是喜欢用Apple。 他们非常擅长定价新产品。 我们必须真正受到纪律处分才能获得新资料。 当我们推出产品时，我们显然会带来好处。 有一个额外的好处，获得定价。 所以你想要对这个学科肯定是疯狂的。 在任何时期，尤其是你可能会遇到一个小衰退区。
Okay. And given the uncertainty around global trade, economic outlook, why not take a more conservative approach with the guidance?
So there's a couple things as you model out the year. First, raw material headwinds are a pressure in the first half of the year, they're not a second half of the year headwind, and that's $200 million. And by the way, that's carry forward from last year. It's not, prices aren't going up any more, but it was just the carry through from the price increases that hit the second half of last year. So you have that. Secondly, we know we're getting some recovery in electronics because, again, I won't worry you with all the details, but the smartphone thing I was explaining to you. Then the question mark is are we through the destocking on auto. If we're a little bit off on that and we're a little light on the revenue side, we will take some cost actions to protect ourselves and that's kind of our thinking as we model out the year.
所以当你模拟年份时，有几件事情。 首先，原材料逆风是上半年的压力，它们不是下半年的逆风，而且是2亿美元。 顺便说一下，这是从去年开始的结果。 不是，价格不再上涨，但这只是去年下半年价格涨幅的延续。 所以你有。 其次，我们知道我们在电子产品方面有了一些恢复，因为我再也不会担心所有的细节，而是我向你解释的智能手机。 然后问号是我们通过汽车去库存。 如果我们稍微偏离这一点，并且我们对收入方面有所了解，我们将采取一些成本行动来保护自己，这就是我们在计算年度时的想法。
Okay. What would you say would be the bottom of cycle sort of key metrics, including ROIC?
Well, you mean recession?
Yes. How low can it get?
I mean, look, a typical recession is your revenue line, I use a few years ago, right? Your revenue line drops 2%, 3%. I mean that's a recession. I mean '08/'09 was a very different problem with the banking system. So in a scenario like that, you try to keep your EBITDA margin, your drop in EBITDA kind of the same as your revenue drop. You'd take the extra actions. That would be our goal. And by the way, if you had an '08/'09, that's not true. But you have a typical recession, that's what you try to do if you're running a great company.
我的意思是，看，一个典型的经济衰退是你的收入线，我几年前用过，对吗？ 您的收入线下降2％，3％。 我的意思是经济衰退。 我的意思是'08 / '09与银行系统是一个非常不同的问题。 因此，在这种情况下，您尝试保持EBITDA利润率，EBITDA类型的下降与收入下降相同。 你会采取额外的行动。 那将是我们的目标。 顺便说一句，如果你有一个'08 / '09，那不是真的。 但是你经历了一次典型的经济衰退，如果你经营着一家伟大的公司，那就是你要做的事情。
Okay. Regardless of recessions, what would you say your key drivers of ROIC improvement are at this point?
It's the CapEx spend and the R&D spend. It's really not being wasteful there, not doing risky projects. I mean I know people in our company don't like me using this term moonshots all the time, but we're not going to spend $300 million on something that's maybe a 50/50, which we had done in the past. And one of the great examples, which is sad to say this, was the cellulosic ethanol facility. It was supposed to, this is just talking about being maniacal, about tracking every program. It was supposed to be a $250 million program. It ended up being $520 million and I had to shut it down. If we had that $520 million to spend, $10 million, $15 million incrementally on a bunch of different projects, I mean I was like, oh, my gosh.
We're not doing that kind of stuff. And that was a little more prevalent in the way the company is run. Everything we're doing I think is a much safer program; again, tracked. And it's interesting. When you spend $900 million on R&D, and this is typical of a pharmaceutical company and my old life where we did a lot of R&D. It's okay where we did a lot of R&D. It's okay to kill projects. What happens in companies when you're not maniacal about it – I don't mind scientific work. Like, do it. That doesn't have to prove out overnight, but you've got to just stay on top of it because you're probably going to kill 15%, 20% of projects at some point. Because, hey, if it's not going to turn into a product, you're not going to get a return on it, then that's smart. Redeploy the capital. Put it onto some other great idea you have.
So it's that focus that's getting a – driving up our incremental returns and why we're highly confident we're going to continue to get at least 100 basis point improvement. I'll give you one other area of just – you reminded me talking about ROIC – where we don't benchmark best in class. There's actually a few areas that I don't think we do yet. But one of them is we have a $1 billion opportunity on working capital if you really want to benchmark us to where you'd say, okay, that's a world-class level to run at. It was $2 billion a few years ago. We've worked that. We've got about a $1 billion opportunity there also that we've got to get better at.
By the way, just to give you a few others while my mind is thinking about it, our factory efficiency program. I used to say I gave us a C on the report card. I now give us a B. We've made tremendous progress. S&C's making the most progress. Last quarter our margins were up 330 basis points. A lot of that was that. But we still have room to drive there. We know by facility where we've got to get to. So I'd say that's another big metric.
And then by the way, the third one where we're not world-class, just to show you the delta still, we've driven up ROIC significantly in the last three to four years. But if you actually benchmark us against a best-in-class company – not incrementally, incrementally we're up best in class. But aggregate, our ROIC is 1,000 bps off of what you'd call the best companies that run. So again, driving that up continually. That'd be three of the metrics that – a lot of room for improvement.
Okay. Now how much more can drop CapEx at this point? You already dropped it by 50%?
好的。 现在，还有多少可以降低资本支出？ 你已经把它下降了50％？
No, we're not going to drop CapEx. CapEx is going to run 4% to 5% every year. What's interesting about the model, which is a little bit different than for instance Dow or other compatriots, we don't have big greenfield builds that cost $2 billion. Literally, our biggest CapEx program, if you take away that cellulosic problem I just described, our biggest CapEx is actually the Tyvek line we're adding now for $400 million. And that's a spend over three years, by the way. And we don't have many of those. So it's going to be a steady 4% to 5% year in and year out, which I think is a really nice kind of steady machine to manage.
And by the way, just back to my point on Tyvek, which is important, a lot of the underlying technologies in DuPont, it's not what people think it is. It's we broaden the applications. So Tyvek, only a third of Tyvek is with house wrap and everyone assumes it's like 100% of the business. The biggest growing areas for Tyvek are medical packaging and protective apparel. So you remember the Ebola thing over in Africa, you'd see everyone in the suits? They were Tyvek suits.
In Kevlar, everyone thinks of it as the vest that saves lives, which it's only a third of the business now. It's – thermal apparel is a big one and aerospace applications because of the light weight but the durability of it. And they're a faster-growing area. So we have a lot of product areas like that where we need capacity for the new applications that we're using it for.
在凯夫拉尔，每个人都认为它是拯救生命的背心，现在只占业务的三分之一。它是 - 热服装是一个很大的和航空航天应用，因为它的重量轻但耐用。而且它们是一个增长较快的领域。因此，我们有很多产品领域，我们需要容量用于我们正在使用它的新应用程序。
Okay. And last on the ROIC here. How much of your incentive pay will be tied to ROIC?
好的。 最后在ROIC这里。 您的奖励金额中有多少与ROIC挂钩？
So there's going to be a stock performance plan instituted literally in the next week. I don't know what day you'll see it, but during the next week. And it'll be a significant part – obviously, because it's shares. It's not just a bonus every year. So it's a long-term play, multi-year. And it's not going to everybody, obviously, but it's going to all the people we think pull the key levers to continue to improve the ROIC in the company. So it's a pretty broad list but, again, not as broad as we'd typically do a stock option plan. And we'll drive that out. And we're not only just going to put it out there, we're going to talk about why we're doing it. And people get it. I mean we've been running it this way for three years, but just to really prove it. Your pay's going to be performance paid based on that metric.
因此，下周将实施一项股票表现计划。 我不知道你会在哪一天看到它，但在下周。 它将是一个重要的部分 - 显然，因为它的份额。 这不仅仅是每年的奖金。 所以这是一个长期的比赛，多年。 显然，并不是每个人都会这样，但是我们认为所有人都会抓住关键杠杆来继续改善公司的ROIC。 因此，这是一个相当广泛的清单，但同样，并不像我们通常做的股票期权计划那么广泛。 我们会把它赶出去。 我们不仅要把它放在那里，我们还要谈谈我们为什么这样做。 人们得到它。 我的意思是我们已经用这种方式运行了三年，但只是为了真正证明它。 您的工资将根据该指标支付绩效。
Okay. You don't want to give magnitude yet. We need to wait for next week?
好的。 你还不想给出数量。 我们需要等下周？
It's not insignificant in the scheme of their percentage of pay.
Okay. And is it incremental ROIC or absolute ROIC?
Okay. Embedding the R&D into the divisions, does that limit new product application across the verticals?
There is very little overlap between the four companies. So I know DuPont in the past used to talk about it a lot. There is not a lot of overlap. One of the big overlap areas that is a good one that we've got a program going on, the head program is the auto business because there's a little bit of overlap because of what we do in T&AP and what we do in the electronics business. But by and large, they're very independent. Nutrition and health has nothing to do with electronics.
T&AP doesn't have much besides auto customer together. It's a different R&D machine and you run them differently. And if you look at our R&D, R&D's always going to run around 4% of sales. I don't see that changing much. Because if you look at it by business, we're spending very differently. And if you line us up against the peer companies, we spend kind of right in the middle of our peer set. So in electronics, it's a faster cycle business. We spend 8% on R&D. But in T&AP we only spend 2%, and half of the business in T&AP doesn't even need R&D. It's more of a manufacturing machine. So it's very different. Nutrition and health is about 7%. So it's very different depending on the business. I feel like we're spending very significantly, but at the right level. And again, it depends on the business.
Okay. And can you talk a little bit about how do you think about R&D focus and capital allocation within R&D? Do they compete with each other for funding? How does that work?
好的。 您能否谈谈您如何看待R＆D研发中的研发重点和资本配置？ 他们互相竞争资金吗？ 这是如何运作的？
No. So we review every CapEx program. I tend to by nature let that one get tensioned a little bit. So I'll give you last year. We cut it off. And we had five or six projects that still looked like we should probably do them. And we didn't start out the year approving them. And by the way, the list is like 50 things, right? And there was like five or six of them and we're like let's just wait on that. Let's study it a little bit more. As we were going through the year, we kind of knocked off all five or so of those and added them in, kind of started them midyear.
So we do tension that one a little bit just to be safe. But again, we'll get to it. If we didn't do it, we would've probably done it the next year. It would've moved up our list. So that one gets tensioned a little bit. The R&D, I truly have said to the businesses, and Marc has said to the businesses, what level do you need to run at, or is there anything else you need to do? Like if I had to take it up to 4.5% of sales, we would do it. But we're not holding anybody back there. We're truly letting them spend to the level they say they need to spend at.
Okay. They have to convince you it's worth doing.
我们没有根据SG＆A百分比的具体情况进行指导。 但我会告诉你，由于基思在发布中谈到的成本降低，其中大部分已经在5月份实施，与我们预订的与员工相关的成本削减有关，以及与削减顾问使用相关的事项。 以及旅行费用和其他绝对可控费用的领域。 到目前为止，我们看到了非常积极的结果，正如我们对预算预测的预期。...
Well, we track every program. That's the difference.
Okay. So on a share basis at least, thus far the DowDuPont merger hasn't created value. Can you give your take on what's been happening here? And then can you give us a sort of holistic update on the broader merger process and your confidence in creating value from here?
好的。 所以至少在股票基础上，到目前为止DowDuPont的合并还没有创造价值。 你能否对这里发生的事情有所了解？ 那么你能否就更广泛的合并过程以及你从这里创造价值的信心给我们一个全面的更新？
Yeah. So look, I think it's – I hate to say it's simple this way. We have some macro issues right now. The big one we talked about, which is actually affecting all three companies on the power front. And again, not because of the supply chain, just the demand side of it. And by the way, in ag you got the weather issue. In Dow you got some compression going on because of pricing right now. So there's a few macro issues. I don't mean this flippantly at all: this too shall pass. If you track every metric in all three of the companies, everything is running better. Overhead structures are best in class. Incremental returns. Dow is going to be very different from a return standpoint, doing brownfield incremental upgrades. Corteva needs to be a launch machine and they've been doing a great job launching the new products. I think when Jim presents, you'll see all the new launches just since the merger, which will really drive the results there.
So if you just – I'm a long-term thinker, like I'm thinking how's this thing going to look in five or seven years. I will hold the stock of all three companies like I did at Tyco. Each one of these you can see it's run so much better than it was run and you'll get the value out of it.
是啊。所以看，我认为 - 我不想这样说这很简单。我们现在有一些宏观问题。我们谈到的最重要的一个，实际上影响了所有三家公司的权力。而且，不仅仅是因为供应链，而是需求方面。顺便说一句，在ag你遇到了天气问题。在陶氏，你现在因为定价而受到一些压缩。所以有一些宏观问题。我根本不是轻浮的意思：这也应该过去。如果您跟踪所有三家公司的每个指标，一切都运行得更好。架空结构是同类产品中最好的。增量回报。道琼斯指数将与回归观点截然不同，进行棕色地带增量升级。 Corteva需要成为一台发射机器，他们在推出新产品方面做得非常出色。我想当吉姆出现时，你会看到自合并以来所有的新发布，这将真正推动那里的结果。
所以如果你只是 - 我是一个长期的思想家，就像我在想这五年或七年后会发生什么样的事情。我会像在泰科那样持有三家公司的股票。你可以看到它们中的每一个都比运行时运行得更好，你将从中获得价值。
Okay. What's your biggest learning through this whole process?
I don't know that it's a learning as much as – what was interesting about this deal, maybe the difference, which are the highly unusual – it was a merger of equals. So when I say a learning – but I don't know that we could've done it any differently – we should've made some decisions sooner than we were able to and I'll give you just one of the big ones.
Well, I'll give you two. It took us a little while to convince every part of the company that they were a little bit bloated on their cost structure. It was obvious to a lot of people, so it was a little more work than normally which, if it wasn't a merger of equals, that wouldn't have happened.
The second area was the shift in the portfolio did not happen until we merged the companies a year-and-a-half ago. So we were – whenever we worked on it, a year-and-ahalf into it, going through antitrust approval, that should've all been done right away and it wasn't. And we had to go through a very laborious process and get the other third party involved, do an analysis.
Now by the way, at the end of the day we totally made the right decision. And that was huge. Back to your point about creating value. DuPont would be a shell of itself now and Dow would not be as good a company. With all the specialty businesses in Dow for 10 years, which was basically the [indiscernible] acquisition, they never got the value for it. They tracked along with a couple other chemical companies. If you do the charts – I'm sure you've done them. I think you have. I've read them.
我不知道这是一个学习 - 这个交易的有趣之处，也许是差异，这是非常不寻常的 - 它是平等的合并。因此，当我说一个学习 - 但我不知道我们可以做任何不同的事情 - 我们应该尽快做出一些决定，我会给你一个大的。
第二个领域是投资组合的转变直到我们在一年半前合并这些公司之后才发生。所以我们 - 无论何时我们在它上面工作，一年又一年，通过反托拉斯批准，应该立即完成，但事实并非如此。我们不得不经历一个非常艰苦的过程并让其他第三方参与，做一个分析。
顺便说一句，在一天结束时，我们做出了正确的决定。那是巨大的。回到你关于创造价值的观点。杜邦现在将成为一个自己的壳，道琼斯不会是一个好公司。道琼斯的所有专业业务已经持续了10年，基本上是[音频不清晰]的收购，他们从来没有得到它的价值。他们跟几家其他化学公司一起跟踪。如果你做图表 - 我相信你已经完成了它们。我想你有。我读过它们。
I think they're quite below their competitors.
Yeah, yeah. So it was a huge shift for us that should not have taken that long. So merger of equals are a little bit more complex from some of that decision-making standpoint. But I will say at the end of the day everything that I thought was major ended up getting done. It just was a tougher road to get to home plate.
是啊。 所以这对我们来说是一个巨大的转变，不应该花那么长时间。 因此，从一些决策角度来看，平等的合并会稍微复杂一些。 但我会在一天结束时说，我认为主要的一切都结束了。 到达本垒板只是一条更艰难的道路。
Fair enough. Fair enough. A couple very specific questions here on – from the audience. With the huge success of the Beyond Meat IPO, apparently now trading at 55 times sales – I was not aware of that, why not spin off your nutrition business to create value?
很公平。 很公平。 这里有几个非常具体的问题 - 来自观众。 随着Beyond Meat IPO的巨大成功，显然现在的销售额是55倍 - 我不知道这一点，为什么不剥离营养业务以创造价值？
I think I answered – I think that was written after I answered that one.
我想我回答了 - 我认为那是在我回答了那个之后写的。
It literally just came in, so maybe someone did not feel that you were answering it specifically.
Well, I can't be more specific than what I said. But by the way, I will add this, but I also said this already. You've got to look at does a spin make sense? You've also got to look is there a structured transaction that makes sense? So it's not as easy as just say, ah, just spin everything. There are things, and by the way, I'll give you a great example. At Tyco I spun out four companies, but one of them we did an RMT. It was a very interesting structure for us, and it was better than just spinning that part of our business on its own.
好吧，我不能比我说的更具体。 但顺便说一句，我会补充一下，但我也已经说过了。 你必须看看旋转有意义吗？ 您还必须看一下有意义的结构化交易吗？ 所以它并不像说，啊，只是旋转一切都那么容易。 有些东西，顺便说一句，我会给你一个很好的例子。 在泰科，我分拆了四家公司，但其中一家我们做了RMT。 对我们来说这是一个非常有趣的结构，它不仅仅是单独转动我们业务的这一部分。
Yeah. No, I remember that one. It created a lot of value doing it that way.
是啊。 不，我记得那个。 它以这种方式创造了很多价值。
I think the Tyco stock, I might be a little off because I was even surprised that day. I think the Tyco stock the day we announced it, by the way, that was the smallest division pretty much in Tyco that we were getting spun out. And if I remember this right, the Tyco stock went up 4% that day and the company we RMT'd with went up 18% on the announcement. Because it made a lot of sense. There were a lot of synergies that fit together. It gave scale in the end market. Some of the things we talked about earlier this hour.
我认为泰科股票，我可能会有点休息，因为那天我甚至感到惊讶。 顺便说一句，我认为Tyco股票是我们宣布它的那一天，这是Tyco中最小的部门，我们正在分拆出来。 如果我没记错的话，泰科股票当天上涨了4％，我们RMT的公司股价上涨了18％。 因为它很有意义。 有很多协同作用合在一起。 它在终端市场上取得了规模。 我们今小时提到的一些事情。
That makes sense. There was a very specific question in the same division. They wrote what was the key variable that drove the write-down on the industrial biosciences business? I'm assuming this refers to the ethanol.
那讲得通。 同一个部门有一个非常具体的问题。 他们写了什么是推动工业生物科学业务减记的关键变量？ 我假设这是指乙醇。
Yes. It's very simple and I wouldn't over-read this one. We've been highlighting this in our filings. Remember, when we did the merger we were, quote, DuPont was acquired, we had to step up everything to kind of full value. So we've known all along. And now you're doing, you're testing smaller segments and there's a lot of them you test. We were like, all right, there's going to be a goodwill impairment on something.
Remember, it's a business in non-core. It's a good business, by the way, because of the biomaterial Sorona side. It's a little light. So when you actually do the testing and there's a couple different testes you do which is why we gave a range. One, that we knew we were probably going to have some impairment along the way. So it's a non-cash issue. But it's because, what really created it was the total step up in the valuation.
是。 这很简单，我不会过度阅读这个。 我们在文件中一直在强调这一点。 请记住，当我们进行合并时，我们说，杜邦被收购，我们必须加强一切，以达到完全的价值。 所以我们一直都知道。 现在你正在做，你正在测试较小的片段，你测试的很多片段。 我们就像是，好吧，对某些事情会有一种善意的损害。
请记住，这是非核心业务。 顺便说一下，这是一个很好的生意，因为生物材料Sorona方面。 这有点轻松。 因此，当您实际进行测试时，您会做几种不同的测试，这就是我们给出范围的原因。 一，我们知道我们可能会在途中受到一些损害。 所以这是一个非现金问题。 但这是因为，真正创造它的是估值的总体提升。
Okay. Almost running out of time, but before we do that just capital allocation. You talked about doing buybacks. but how much cash will you have available for buybacks this year? Because there's still a lot of synergy capture and spinoff costs to pay for.
好的。 几乎耗尽时间，但在我们这样做之前只是资本分配。 你谈到做回购。 但今年你有多少现金可用于回购？ 因为还有很多协同捕获和衍生成本需要付费。
Yes. So I won't put an exact number on it, but we have the capacity to do what we want based on the $2 billion announcement. We could finance it one way or another if we want. The true excess cash, if you model it out, a lot of it's, to your point, Jonas, is getting used this year on some transaction costs. We've got to fund a couple pension things because of the deal to use some cash. But if you just look at it past the dividend and everything and you kind of look 2020 on, there's basically $2 billion of excess cash. And obviously we'll grow with our earnings, but that's a pretty consistent number to look at. But also, remember we're going to get a lot of value out of the non-core assets we're going to sell during this year. So we've got all that cash going to come in to redeploy or share buyback. And then you've got the ongoing true excess free cash flow 2020 on.
是。 因此，我不会在其上加上确切的数字，但我们有能力根据20亿美元的公告做我们想做的事情。 如果我们愿意，我们可以通过这种或那种方式为其提 真正的超额现金，如果你说出来的话，很多，就你的观点而言，乔纳斯今年会因某些交易成本而被使用。 由于使用现金的交易，我们必须资助一些养老金。 但是，如果你只是看看它已经超过了股息和所有你看起来有点看，那么基本上有20亿美元的超额现金。 显然，我们会随着收入的增长而增长，但这是一个非常一致的数字。 但是，请记住，我们将从今年将要出售的非核心资产中获得很多价值。 因此，我们已经将所有现金用于重新部署或分享回购。 然后你就可以获得2020年真正的超额自由现金流。
Okay. And what is the appetite for acquiring something to merge up with any of the verticals you have?
Well, if we did, first of all, I'm not sitting around looking at, like, oh my gosh, let's go do a deal right now. And by the way, these other strategic things I talked about earlier, obviously we're going to study that real time. But as far as a deal, if we did anything it would be bolt on, it would be 2 to 4, I'm just ballparking it, don't hold me. it would be a $2 billion to $4 billion type of thing. We're not going to do a $15 billion acquisition. And I just don't feel like we, I'm not urgent to do anything because we have a great portfolio as it is. Again, I want to clean up that 10%. That's more important right now. If something really strategic and interesting came along to bolt on, we would obviously look at it, but it's not like I'm sitting around dying to do it.
好吧，如果我们做了，首先，我不是坐在那里看着，就像，哦，天哪，我们现在就去做吧。 顺便说一句，我之前谈到的其他战略性事情，显然我们将要研究那个实时。 但就交易而言，如果我们做了任何事情，那么它将是2到4，我只是在停球，不要抱着我。 这将是一个价值20亿到40亿美元的东西。 我们不打算进行150亿美元的收购。 我只是不喜欢我们，我不急于做任何事情，因为我们有很好的投资组合。 再次，我想清理那10％。 那现在更重要。 如果一些真正具有战略性和趣味性的东西出现了，我们显然会看到它，但这并不像我正坐在那里去做它。
Okay. A last question is one that we're trying to ask of all our presenters this conference. What investments you're doing today do you think will be most impactful five years from now?
好的。 最后一个问题是我们试图向所有演讲者询问此次会议。 你认为今天你正在做什么投资将在五年后最具影响力？
Well, I would say if you put it that – the R&D shift and the doubling down on the R&D spend in more of the secular growth areas, and not spreading the peanut butter across the bread, if you know what I mean. It's not like everyone gets their – it's where are these secular growth areas. Fund more of the R&D into those spaces. I do think cleaning up the portfolio I put very high on the list also, because it really optimizes the value and the returns we're going to drive and where we're going to spend the R&D in the rest of the portfolio. So just higher level that would be it. And then just not doing any sloppy CapEx stuff that blows money I would say is just another big one that's going to pay off huge and has been the last few years.
好吧，如果你知道我的意思，我会说如果你说的那样 - 研发转移和研发支出在更多的长期增长领域，而不是将花生酱涂在面包上。 这并不是每个人都能得到他们的 - 这就是这些长期增长的领域。 将更多的研发资金投入这些空间。 我确实认为清理我在列表中排名很高的投资组合，因为它确实优化了我们将要推动的价值和回报，以及我们将在其他投资组合中进行研发的地方。 所以只是更高的水平。 然后就是不要做任何蹩脚的CapEx东西吹钱，我会说这只是另一个巨大的回报巨大而且已经过去几年了。
Okay. And with that, thank you very much.
Great. Thank you.
- 陶氏杜邦 电话会议
- 陶氏杜邦 财务报告
- 老虎证券开户教程 美股8折佣金， 11股小米股票（价值385港币）, 还会邀请你进付费交流群
- 雪盈证券开户教程 开户后 最高可领取1066港币。美股佣金最低0.002美元/股，港股小额免佣，打新手续费全免
- 富途牛牛证券开户教程 开户即可领取1股汇丰，入金达到2万港币即可领取1股腾讯；新股一键认购，最高支持10倍杠杆融资，免新股认购手续费，暗盘交易免佣；
- 华盛通开证券户教程 开通美股或者港股， 享受现金200元,美股8折奖励。
- 微牛证券开户教程 首次入金到账2000美金以上，可以免费抽取5只股票，每只价值9-1400美金。转仓可以报销，上限100美金。
- 必贝证券开户教程 开通后 享有280元现金奖励
- 玖富证券开户教程 开通后 最低入金1W港币可以领218元红包
- 长桥证券开户教程 开通后 可获得15美金~25美金奖励
- 盈立证券开户教程 注册随机领3股，注册后可随机抽取苹果、腾讯、阿里、京东等热门股票
- 如何办理新加坡卡, 在线办理, 没有资金门槛