Illumina,Inc。(ILMN) 首席执行官 Francis deSouza 出席高盛全球医疗保健会议 (成绩单)

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年06月13日 · 68 次阅读

Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ:ILMN) Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conference June 12, 2019 3:00 PM ET

Illumina,Inc。(纳斯达克股票代码:[ILMN])高盛全球医疗保健会议2019年6月12日美国东部时间下午3:00

公司参与者

Francis deSouza - CEO

  • Francis deSouza - 首席执行官

电话会议参与者

Patrick Donnelly - Goldman Sachs

  • 帕特里克唐纳利 - 高盛

Patrick Donnelly

I think we can look to get started. Thanks for being here. I'm Patrick Donnelly, the tools and diagnostics analyst here at Goldman Sachs. Happy to have Francis deSouza, CEO of Illumina, with us today. It's open Q&A so feel free to just raise your hand, and we'll try to get you. But Francis, I think you wanted you read a safe harbor statement before we get started.

我想我们可以开始了。 谢谢你在这里。 我是高盛(Goldman Sachs)工具和诊断分析师Patrick Donnelly。 很高兴Illumina首席执行官Francis deSouza今天和我们一起。 这是一个开放的问答,所以请随意举手,我们会尽力帮助你。 但弗朗西斯,我想你在开始之前想要你读一个安全的港湾声明。

Francis deSouza

Yes, thank you, Patrick, and good morning to all of you and thank you for attending our session this morning. Before we start I'd like to remind you that my comments today could include forward looking statements. You should refer to our SEC filings for a discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from our current expectations. It's our intent that all forward looking statements regarding our financial results and commercial activity made during today's discussion will be protected under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

是的,谢谢你,Patrick,大家早上好,感谢你们今天上午参加我们的会议。 在我们开始之前,我想提醒您,我今天的评论可能包括前瞻性陈述。 您应参考我们的美国证券交易委员会备案文件,讨论可能导致结果与我们当前预期产生重大差异的风险和不确定因素。 我们的意图是,在今天的讨论中所做的所有有关我们的财务业绩和商业活动的前瞻性陈述将受到1995年“私人证券诉讼改革法案”的保护。

Patrick Donnelly

All right. Yes, may be just to start Francis, maybe you can just kind of talk through how the year has gone so far for you guys. Obviously, the 1Q results were solid, you had some NovaSeq shipments kind of shift in and out of other quarters. So maybe start there and then we can kind of dive into the Q&A, top level.

行。 是的,也许只是为了开始弗朗西斯,也许你可以谈谈你们今年迄今为止的表现。 显然,1Q的结果是稳固的,你有一些NovaSeq出货量的进出其他季度。 所以也许从那里开始,然后我们可以深入到Q&A,顶级。

Francis deSouza

Sure. So we came into this year obviously with good momentum coming out of last year. Well we had a strong growth last year and as we talked about this year and the last couple of years, one of the themes that is playing out is the upgrade cycle and high throughput part of our portfolio. The upgrade cycle from HiSeq X and HiSeq to NovaSeq. And we talked about the fact that we've designed that upgrade cycle which frankly is the biggest that's happened in the sequencing market ever to be a multi-year upgrade cycle and that the first year in '17, we expected so the very large high throughput labs we expect and the commercial labs to lead the upgrade cycle.
And then, we expected to see the overall upgrade cycle play out over a three to five year win. So we're in the midst of that this year. And coming into this year we did a number of things to activate a part of the HiSeq customer base to upgrade. So, we launched the S Prime at the low end of the first half portfolio which also has a longer read length. We lowered the price of the S1 and the S2 and the intent is this year to catalyze the upgrade of the smaller end of the high throughput labs the core lives. And so that's sort of one theme that's playing out.
Another theme that's playing out is when we talked about that this year we are going to start to see more revenue coming from a more diverse set of population sequencing estimates that the story of population sequencing for the last few years an exciting story was really driven by GeL in the U.K., but this year we expect it to see whether it's projects in the U.S. but maybe half a dozen projects around the world that would contribute to population sequencing revenue for us. So that's been playing out this year.
We're also talking about the fact that we're seeing continued momentum build in the clinical markets whether it's a build in the reimbursement frameworks for NIPT especially in Europe but also a good progress in terms of reimbursement and regulatory approvals in oncology. And so that's another theme playing out this year.

当然。因此,我们今年进入明年的势头很明显。好吧,去年我们有了强劲的增长,正如我们今年和过去几年所谈到的那样,其中一个主题是我们产品组合的升级周期和高吞吐量部分。升级周期从HiSeq X和HiSeq到NovaSeq。我们谈到了这样一个事实,即我们设计了升级周期,坦率地说,这是在测序市场中发生的最大的升级周期,而且是在17年的第一年,我们预计会出现这么高的升级周期。我们期望吞吐量实验室和商业实验室引领升级周期。

然后,我们预计整个升级周期将在三到五年的胜利中发挥作用。所以今年我们正处于这个阶段。进入今年,我们做了很多工作来激活HiSeq客户群的一部分进行升级。因此,我们在上半年投资组合的低端发布了S Prime,这也有更长的读取长度。我们降低了S1和S2的价格,并且今年的目的是促进核心生产的高吞吐量实验室的较小端的升级。所以这就是一个正在发挥作用的主题。

正在播出的另一个主题是,当我们谈到今年我们将开始看到更多收入来自更多样化的人口测序估计时,过去几年人口测序的故事是一个激动人心的故事真的是由GeL在英国,但今年我们希望看看它是否在美国的项目,但可能是全世界的六个项目,这将有助于我们的人口测序收入。所以今年一直都在玩。

我们还谈到这样一个事实,即我们看到临床市场的持续增长动力是否构建了NIPT的报销框架,特别是在欧洲,而且在肿瘤学的报销和监管审批方面取得了良好进展。这是今年的另一个主题。

Patrick Donnelly

Maybe we start on population sequencing and seems to be the biggest focus for investors. Maybe just talk through the projects that you're seeing out there and you mentioned maybe half a dozen certainly some big ones in the U.S. that are in focus group. There's talk through the visibility you guys have again the second half you're talking about I think a $55 million step up that Sam broke out on the call. There's talk through those projects, the pipeline, and then the visibility and those of them playing out the back up?

也许我们从人口排序开始,似乎是投资者最关注的焦点。 也许只是谈谈你在那里看到的项目,你提到可能有六个肯定是美国的一些大型焦点小组。 在你谈论下半场的时候,你们再次见到了可见性,我认为Sam在电话会议上爆发了5500万美元。 通过这些项目,管道,然后是可见性以及它们在后面播放的内容进行了讨论?

Francis deSouza

Yes. So, population sequencing efforts just to sort of ground setting are efforts that are driven in a lot of cases by governments. But the intent is to sequence big chunks of the population and there are really two flavors of them. The first population sequencing effort in genomics England, started in the 2013, 2014 timeframe and was primarily a research project and it wound down sort of end of last year beginning of this year, doing a 100,000 genomes and the intent was to do good research and discovery around the clinical utility, the economic value of doing next generation sequencing testing in the health care system.
And so one flavor of population sequencing projects is to create the next GeL in other countries. So for example in the U.S. you have the All of Us research project that's modeled on GeL it's a research project and the intent is to learn about the economic value of using next generation sequencing and what we can get out of it.
We're seeing though and what's very exciting is we're seeing through the next generation of population sequencing efforts and the difference is projects like the project in France for example aren't research projects. They are driven by the health care system and that's also happening in the U.K. now.
So the next step of GeL, GeL 2 some people are calling it's really not a research project at all it's driven by the NHS, the National Health System where they are building into the standard of care in the U.K. the use of Next Generation Sequencing where people who have genetic diseases and who have cancer.
And so that's really exciting because you're no longer seeing it as a research project with a beginning and an end or a certain number of genomes. It's not just getting baked into the standard of care in the U.K. but the entire U.K. population. And you're seeing that flavor of population sequencing projects now in a lot of cases around the world. France is another example of that.
And so today when we talk about the fact that we have a team in our company that's specifically focused on population sequencing efforts. They are deeply engaged with the countries around the world that are looking to do these populations sequencing efforts.
In some cases they're helping design those efforts. And they're sharing the learnings we had in going through the journey with GeL. And so helping those together, and so that gives us a unique seat of table and a unique point of view around what projects are happening and when. We are working on over 50 projects around the world, not all of them are public but if you write them you'll see maybe 30 ish are public. And so we're working on them being rolled out and a lot of them as I said are really about national systems embracing sequencing as a standard of care for their populations going forward from now on.

是。因此,人口测序工作只是为了进行地面设置,这是许多政府在很多情况下所做的努力。但目的是对大量人群进行排序,其中有两种口味。英格兰基因组学的第一次群体测序工作始于2013年,2014年时间框架,主要是一个研究项目,它在今年年底开始结束,做了100,000个基因组,目的是做好研究,围绕临床应用的发现,在医疗保健系统中进行下一代测序测试的经济价值。

因此,一种人口测序项目就是在其他国家创建下一个GeL。因此,例如在美国,您拥有以GeL为蓝本的All of Us研究项目,这是一个研究项目,目的是了解使用下一代测序的经济价值以及我们可以从中获得的经验。

我们正在看到,令人兴奋的是,我们正在通过下一代人口测序工作看到,而不同之处在于像法国项目这样的项目不是研究项目。它们由医疗保健系统驱动,现在也在英国发生。

因此GeL的下一步,GeL 2有些人称它真的不是一个研究项目,它完全由NHS驱动,即国家卫生系统,他们正在建立英国的标准护理,使用新一代测序患有遗传性疾病和患有癌症的人。

因此,您真的很兴奋,因为您不再将其视为具有开始和结束或一定数量基因组的研究项目。它不仅仅是融入英国的护理标准,而是整个英国人口。而且你现在在世界各地的许多案例中都看到了这种人口测序项目的风格。法国就是另一个例子。

所以今天我们谈论的事实是我们公司的团队专注于人口测序工作。他们与世界各地正在寻求进行这些人口测序工作的国家密切合作。

在某些情况下,他们正在帮助设计这些努力。他们分享了我们在与GeL一起旅行时所学到的知识。因此,帮助这些人,从而为我们提供独特的桌子座位,以及围绕项目正在发生和何时发生的独特观点。我们正在全球范围内开展50多个项目,并非所有项目都是公开的,但如果你写这些项目,你会发现可能有30个是公开的。所以我们正在努力推广它们,其中很多正如我所说的那样,实际上是关于国家系统将测序作为他们从现在开始的人口照顾的标准。

Patrick Donnelly

And maybe just talk through what you learned from GeL, so I think the cadence was maybe a little chunkier than sort of I expected with large number of it coming through last year obviously I think around 75,000 to 100,000 and expectations of other POPSEQ initiatives relative to that.

也许只是谈谈你从GeL学到的东西,所以我认为节奏可能比我预期的那样大一点,去年大量的节奏明显我认为大约75,000到100,000以及其他POPSEQ举措的期望相对于 那。

Francis deSouza

Yes, we had - GeL is a terrific project, it's a really exciting project obviously U.K. is pioneering the world there. And we're really happy in terms of thinking - as an industry we're very happy about the learnings that came out of GeL, and the result is also promising. It's obviously being rolled out into the health care system.
And we learned a lot about the utility using next generation sequencing in genetic disease and in oncology. And I'll compare sort of where we are right. So, if you have a child born with a genetic disease and it's estimated that north of 5% of children today are born with a genetic disease. Some of them will present immediately after birth with symptoms like epileptic seizures, and it's not uncommon for a child to be placed in the NICU with the seizures, the doctors trying to figure out what's wrong and if they can't figure out what's wrong then the child is sent home with a diagnosis as a failure to thrive.
And then on average in the U.S., the child will go through a diagnostic odyssey that could be seven to nine years. On average the child will be misdiagnosed two to three times. In a 9% to 10% of those families will go bankrupt. That's the standard of care here. And what we found working with GeL in the U.K., that there's a better way to do this. And what they're looking to do in the NHS is they're saying, look if on pick it any day, five day, seven you still haven't found a diagnosis.
And then what you do is you do a whole genome sequence of the child and the parents, and 50% plus cases they're able to do a diagnosis right there. And so you're talking about now day seven to day nine versus year seven to year nine. And so the economics are so compelling that the pain avoidance is so compelling that they're building it into their health care system.
So we learned that to roll that out in the health care system and it's in the U.K., but it is the lesson that can translate everywhere. We've learnt a lot about the protocols that you have to put into place, the physician education you have to put into place. For example, one of the things we learnt in the U.K., was for the use NGS testing to select therapies for cancer patients you really want the tumor to be fresh frozen samples, not FFPE because you get too much degradation and we had to rework the accession protocol for tumors.
And so that's the kind of lesson you learn. Just having gone through that process and that's the kind of lesson we can share with population sequencing efforts around the world either through our experience but also connecting them with the U.K., and saying look here's how you think about it. Here's where the highest value is initially. But to do it here's what you need to do in the health care system.

是的,我们有 - GeL是一个了不起的项目,这是一个非常令人兴奋的项目,显然英国正在那里开拓世界。我们在思考方面非常高兴 - 作为一个行业,我们对GeL的学习感到非常高兴,结果也很有希望。它显然正在推广到医疗保健系统。

我们在遗传病和肿瘤学中使用新一代测序技术了解了很多。而且我会比较一下我们是对的。所以,如果您的孩子出生时患有遗传性疾病,并且估计今天有5%的儿童出生时患有遗传性疾病。他们中的一些人会在出生后立即出现癫痫发作等症状,并且孩子被癫痫发作放入新生儿重症监护病房的情况并不少见,医生试图弄清楚什么是错的,如果他们不知道什么是错的那么孩子被送回家,诊断为茁壮成长。

然后在美国平均来说,这个孩子将经历七到九年的诊断性冒险。平均而言,孩子将被误诊两到三次。在这些家庭的9%至10%将破产。这是这里的标准护理。我们发现在英国与GeL合作,有更好的方法来做到这一点。而他们在NHS中想要做的就是他们说,看看是否在任何一天,五天,七天你都没有找到诊断。

然后你做的是你做一个孩子和父母的全基因组序列,50%以上的病例他们能够在那里做出诊断。所以你现在谈论的是第7天到第9天,而第7年到第9年。因此,经济学是如此引人注目,以至于避免疼痛是如此引人注目,以至于它们正在将其纳入其医疗保健系统。

因此,我们了解到要在医疗保健系统中推广它,而且它在英国,但这是可以在任何地方转换的教训。我们已经了解了很多关于您必须实施的协议,以及您必须实施的医生教育。例如,我们在英国学到的一件事就是使用NGS测试为癌症患者选择治疗方法,你真的希望肿瘤是新鲜的冷冻样本,而不是FFPE,因为你得到了太多的退化,我们不得不重做肿瘤的登录协议。

这就是你学到的那种教训。刚刚完成了这个过程,这是我们可以通过我们的经验与世界各地的人口测序工作分享的那种教训,也可以将它们与英国联系起来,并说看看你如何看待它。这是最初的最高值。但要做到这一点,你需要在医疗保健系统中做些什么。

Patrick Donnelly

Yes useful. I’ll just repeat the question. It's just around visibility on the population sequencing initiatives revenue timing?

是有用的。 我只想重复一下这个问题。 这只是围绕人口测序计划收入时间的可见性?

Francis deSouza

Yes. In the cases that I talked about the 50 plus, we are engaged with the teams directly. We are working with those teams, we're helping plan the rollout, we're helping contribute thinking around the infrastructure for the rollout. And so we are actively in dialogue now, we know even from our experience with GeL these are a lot of cases government initiatives, they're complex, there are multiple stakeholders.
And so there is a timing that gets laid out that we work with and in some cases it goes later than expected. But generally we're at the table right with those conversations. In all of those cases what we're hearing is it's not a case of - if they will go forward, it's a case of when they will go forward.

是。 在我谈到50多个的情况下,我们直接与团队合作。 我们正在与这些团队合作,我们正在帮助计划推出,我们正在帮助围绕基础设施进行思考。 所以我们现在正在积极地进行对话,我们甚至从我们对GeL的经验中了解到这些是政府举措的很多案例,它们很复杂,有多个利益相关者。

因此,有一个时间安排我们合作,在某些情况下,它比预期更晚。 但通常情况下,我们会与这些对话进行对话。 在所有这些情况下,我们所听到的并非如此 - 如果它们将向前发展,那么它们将在何时向前发展。

Patrick Donnelly

Then maybe on last one on the population sequencing side obviously the volumes up front are important and sort of a big piece of revenue. But maybe talk a little bit about the back end - something like GeL where the data obviously analyzing that is a big piece of Illumina's role.

然后也许在人口排序方面的最后一个,显然预先的量是重要的,并且有点大的收入。 但也许可以谈谈后端 - 像GeL这样的数据显然分析了Illumina的一大部分作用。

Francis deSouza

That's right. And GeL I think is very exciting from a research perspective and a project. But the knock-on effects are huge. The one that I touched on first was making it a part of the standard of care in the health care system is hugely strategically important. It dwarfs the financial value of the GeL project by a lot because now it's NHS and in perpetuity for genetic diseases for oncology testing.
Another big aspect of the value of GeL as you touched on is the data. The data that comes out from sequencing the 100,000 genomes that they did and matching it with good phenotypic data. And so you create this very rich database of genomic and phenotypic data that has other uses. They're making it available to the research community, they are charging players like pharmaceutical companies to get access to that data because that data presents a very rich data source or drug development. Look for novel targets and so you should expect that that data will continue to generate value going forward.
From Illumina's perspective, there are a number of roles we are playing right. So obviously we generate the data from our sequencers and the idea is to make it as easy as possible to process that data. And so we have a number of things we're doing on that front. And it becomes more and more important as we look at the other systems, the other national systems that are coming online. Because we talk about GeL and the U.K. and we talk about all of us here in the U.S. but there are initiatives that have been announced from companies like Bangladesh or India and even some of the developed countries like Finland or Denmark that may say look we don't want to go and figure out all the different parts. Show us the reference architecture and make it easy.
And so what we do is the sequencers today generate baseball and with the Edico acquisition we did last year what we are able to do is we're able to provide you a pipeline that takes you from base calls to variance. And that's a pretty big step forward.
And so, as a customer you no longer have to go and figure out what's the best designer tool or what's the best variable color tool. How do they all work together. We provide that standardized pipeline for you. And we've built it into hardware. And so we use FPGA. So you get hardware acceleration of that pipeline.
And I'll give you an example of what one customer is able to show is they're saying look, going through the standard leading pipeline today it took them about sort of 19 hours to get that processing done. By using the technology we bought for medical, they were able to do it and depending on the run between 20 and 46 minutes.
And so, you get that substantial acceleration, plus you get a standard pipeline that you don't have to go and choose the tools yourself. So, we're helping our customers and say here's how we'll take you from base calls all the way to variance and then we provide tools and go from variance to interpretation. We have a case lock tool for example.

那就对了。从研究角度和项目来看,我认为GeL非常令人兴奋。但是连锁效应是巨大的。我首先提到的那个是将其作为医疗保健系统标准护理的一部分,具有极大的战略意义。它使GeL项目的财务价值相形见绌,因为​​它现在是NHS,并且是用于肿瘤学测试的遗传疾病的永久性。

当你触及时,GeL价值的另一个重要方面是数据。从他们所做的100,000个基因组测序得出的数据,并将其与良好的表型数据相匹配。因此,您可以创建这个非常丰富的基因组和表型数据数据库,这些数据库还有其他用途。他们正在向研究界提供这些数据,他们正在向制药公司等公司收取访问该数据的费用,因为这些数据提供了非常丰富的数据来源或药物开发。寻找新的目标,因此您应该期望这些数据将继续产生价值。

从Illumina的角度来看,我们正在扮演一些角色。很明显,我们从序列发生器生成数据,其目的是使数据处理尽可能简单。所以我们在这方面做了很多事情。当我们看到其他系统,其他国家系统即将上线时,它变得越来越重要。因为我们谈论的是GeL和英国,我们在美国谈论我们所有人,但孟加拉国或印度等公司,甚至芬兰或丹麦等一些发达国家都宣布了一些措施。我想去弄清楚所有不同的部分。向我们展示参考架构并使其变得简单。

所以我们所做的是今天的序列发生器产生棒球,而去年我们做的Edico收购我们能够做的就是我们能够为你提供一条管道,让你从基本调用到差异。这是向前迈出的一大步。

因此,作为客户,您不再需要去弄清楚什么是最好的设计工具或什么是最好的可变颜色工具。他们如何一起工作。我们为您提供标准化管道。我们已经将它构建到硬件中。所以我们使用FPGA。因此,您获得该管道的硬件加速。

我将举例说明一个客户能够展示他们所说的内容,今天通过标准的领先管道花了大约19个小时来完成处理。通过使用我们购买的医疗技术,他们能够做到并且取决于20到46分钟之间的运行。

因此,您获得了实质性的加速,而且您获得了一条标准管道,您无需自行选择工具。所以,我们正在帮助我们的客户并说明我们将如何将您从基本调用一直带到差异,然后我们提供工具并从方差到解释。例如,我们有一个箱锁工具。

In addition to that, we are cultivating an ecosystem of partnerships where if you want to apply more sophisticated analysis to the data we allow you to.

除此之外,我们正在建立一个伙伴关系生态系统,如果您想对我们允许的数据应用更复杂的分析。

问答环节

…or so that we don't think of it as a product cycle company and that you concentrate on you have price tiered and architecture has changed that NovaSeq and that it would be more like software services, speed and things like that. Is that kind of the general thinking?

...或者我们不认为它是一个产品周期公司,你专注于你的价格分层和架构改变了NovaSeq,它更像是软件服务,速度和类似的东西。 这是一般的想法吗?

Francis deSouza

I think that's an evolution that is happening. And it's one that we are actively sort of moving along. Right. So, you think about it historically. You're right. One of the lines you look at us on and you'd see a product launch, you would see sort of significant pop in revenue in the product launch and then you would see the next pop at the next product launch and over time, you shouldn’t see quite the same the pop and the drop as you saw before and the number of things are driving it.
One as you look at our business today, our sequencing system revenue is just a much smaller part of our total revenue than it used to be and so what it used to be in the 30s a few years ago percentage of revenue, it’s now in some of the mid teens percentage of revenue.
And that mid teens revenue is now split across a broader portfolio, so in the old days we are a very small number of sequencers, today we have a much broader portfolio from the HiSeq, MiniSeq, MiSeq, NextSeq and the NovaSeq and so no single upgrade cycles is responsible for that mid teens sequencing revenues. And so the numbers alone will tell you that we’re moving away from the world if you know this is the big product launch and the big ramp and then sort of defining it. In addition as a company we are we are making sort of moves to move in that direction.
So for example if you look at the NovaSeq upgrades cycles, we have a very deliberate about driving that to be a multiyear upgrade cycle rather than big bowler in year one and then diminishing in year two going forward and how we have done that. We have done that by having a family of flow cells that target different parts of the HiSeq base and making those flow cells available in a measured way over time and so that we’re activating the upgrade cycle of different parts of the customer base at different times and so we launched with a flow cell that was ready geared at the higher end of the larger end of that customer base and then a couple of years later we launched the S Prime that was targeting the smaller end of that customer base and activating the upgrade cycle of that base.
And so that also helps have this be a more measured upgrade cycle rather than big and what you saw then is you saw more NovaSeq been sold in year two than year one of the launch and that’s similar but more in year two and so that is part of strategic intent is sort of drive as to be more smooth over time rather than popping up.
In addition you are seeing the clinical customer base be it bigger part of our customer base as we go forward and that customer base, that is not necessarily the first to jump on a new product that comes out and so that dynamic also will help us get to a world where we have a smoother ramp than you might see from a product lifecycle company.

我认为这是一种正在发生的演变。这是我们积极前进的一个方面。对。所以,你从历史角度思考它。你是对的。你看到我们的其中一条线,你会看到一个产品发布,你会在产品发布中看到一些重要的收入,然后你会看到下一个产品发布的下一个流行音乐,随着时间的推移,你不应该你看到之前看到的流行音乐和音乐下降完全相同,并且事物的数量正在驱动它。

当你看到我们今天的业务时,我们的测序系统收入只是我们总收入的一小部分,而不是以前几十年前收入的百分比,现在是一些中青年收入的百分比。

现在,十几岁的中期收入分散在更广泛的产品组合中,所以在过去我们只是极少数的序列发生器,今天我们有更广泛的产品组合来自HiSeq,MiniSeq,MiSeq,NextSeq和NovaSeq,所以没有单一的升级周期负责中期青少年测序收入。所以只有这些数字会告诉你,如果你知道这是一个重要的产品发布和大匝道,然后再定义它,我们就会离开这个世界。此外,作为一家公司,我们正朝着这个方向迈进。

因此,例如,如果你看看NovaSeq的升级周期,我们非常谨慎地推动这是一个多年的升级周期而不是第一年的大投球手,然后在第二年逐渐减少,以及我们如何做到这一点。我们通过拥有一系列流通池来实现这一目标,这些流通池针对HiSeq基座的不同部分,并且随着时间的推移以可测量的方式使这些流通池可用,从而我们在不同的客户群的不同部分激活升级周期所以我们推出了一个流动池,该流通池准备好在该客户群较大端的较高端,然后几年后我们推出了针对该客户群较小端的S Prime并激活了该基地的升级周期。

所以这也有助于让这个更加稳定的升级周期而不是大而你所看到的是你看到更多的NovaSeq在第二年的销售比第一年的销售更多,而且类似但更多的是在第二年,所以这是一部分战略意图是一种驱动力,随着时间的推移而变得更加平稳而不是突然爆发。

此外,随着我​​们前进和客户群的出现,您看到临床客户群成为我们客户群的重要组成部分,这不一定是第一个跳出新产品的人,因此动态也将帮助我们获得在一个我们拥有比您从产品生命周期公司看到的更平滑的坡道的世界。

Patrick Donnelly

Let me just expand on the instrument side, you guys had I think it was $6 million shortfall in 1Q primarily based on timing, maybe just talk through the conference you guys had was timing and if those play out in the next two quarters capturing those before obviously the big up tick in 4Q?

让我扩展一下乐器方面,我们认为第一季度缺口600万美元主要是基于时间安排,也许只是在会议上谈论你们的时机,如果那些在接下来的两个季度发挥作用 显然第四季度的大幅上涨?

Francis deSouza

Yes, from our perspective the timing of specific sales is driven by our customers and so we want to make sure that we are very responsive to when our customers wants the system and so they tell us and in some cases there are issues where the lab may not be ready on time or personnel maybe not ready on time and we are very flexible with customers about if they tell us it’s next week rather than this week and this week again, that’s six systems were rather in the system our business has $4 million, $5 million that doesn’t change the shape of our business and so we are very responsive to our customers and say here is tell us wanted and we will work to make sure that happens. We look at those numbers but those kinds show signals big change in that.

是的,从我们的角度来看,具体销售的时间是由我们的客户推动的,因此我们希望确保我们对客户何时需要系统非常敏感,因此他们告诉我们,在某些情况下,实验室可能存在问题 没有按时准备或人员可能没准备好准时我们对客户非常灵活,如果他们告诉我们下周而不是本周和本周,那六个系统相当于我们的业务有400万美元的系统, 500万美元不会改变我们的业务形式,所以我们对客户非常敏感,并说这里告诉我们想要的,我们将努力确保这一点。 我们看看这些数字,但这些数字显示出信号发生重大变化。

Patrick Donnelly

Okay. And then I was thinking about 4Q, you guys have talked about 4Q placements being two times what they were in 1Q, maybe just talk through the drivers there and again visibility into that margin up tick which is probably little more than that?

好的。 然后我想到了第四季,你们谈到第四季的位置是他们在第一季度的两倍,或许只是通过那里的车手进行交谈,再次看到这个边缘上升的可能性比这更多?

Francis deSouza

Yes, so I will start by saying that seasonality, our hardware business and the way we see seasonality play out is we have end of the year budgets that play out at different times for example the Japan end of year budget is Q1, small part of our business but we definitely see interest in Japan pick up in Q1. The bigger seasonality for us is in Q3 and Q4 and Q3 is going to be end of the U.S. government budget cycle and so we see builders spending driven by that and in Q4 it’s typically the end of the corporate budget cycle and you see budgets happened there and so that dynamic is definitely part of our business and has been every year. And so there is an element playing out here. This year in addition to that there is a further back end loading given the projects that we talked about, the larger projects that are ramping up over the back half of the year.
And so we start with the regular seasonality and then you overlay some of your specific factors and that's what results in the numbers we talked about. Last Q4 we had over 100 NovaSeq and so it’s not unusual for us to see those kinds of numbers that play out.

是的,所以我首先要说的是季节性,我们的硬件业务以及我们看到季节性发挥的方式是我们在不同时间的年终预算,例如日本年终预算是Q1,小部分我们的业务,但我们肯定看到日本对第一季度的兴趣增加。对我们来说,更大的季节性是第三季度和第四季度,第三季度将是美国政府预算周期的结束,所以我们看到建设者的支出受此推动,而且在第四季度它通常是公司预算周期的结束,你看到预算发生在那里因此,动态绝对是我们业务的一部分,并且每年都是如此。所以这里有一个元素在播放。除了这一点之外,鉴于我们谈到的项目还有更多的后端装载,这些大型项目在今年下半年逐渐增加。

因此,我们从常规季节性开始,然后覆盖您的一些特定因素,这就是我们谈到的数字的结果。去年第四季度我们有超过100个NovaSeq,所以我们看到那些数字出现的情况并不罕见。

Patrick Donnelly

Okay. And then maybe just on the staying on NovaSeq, we've got the long awaited consumable pull through number last quarter, caught some people by surprise but a million dollars maybe stuck through I guess the thought process on giving that number and where you expect it to go over that?

好的。 然后也许只是留在NovaSeq上,我们在上个季度得到了期待已久的消耗品数量,让一些人感到意外,但一百万美元可能会陷入困境我猜想这个数字的思考过程以及你期望的地方 过去那个?

Francis deSouza

Yes, the NovaSeq pull through number, I recognize it's an important number in terms of how people model our business. So I'll talk about in terms of building their models. How many instruments and the average pull through per instrument. From our perspective though the pull through number is really an outcome, it's not a number we try and optimize for what we wanted to do with NovaSeq strategically is we want to make sure we are democratizing access to high throughput sequencing what we wanted to do was put the power of our highest end machines into more labs than we ever had before.
And if you look at where we were before, the most powerful movie machine we had is the HiSeq X and there were less than 50 customers around the world that bought the HiSeq X and if you bought the HiSeq X, you had a significant price advantage in doing whole genome sequencing than customers who bought HiSeq 2500, 3000, 4000 and so the dynamic that’s created in the market was you had the 800 HiSeq customers, the under 50 X customers and if these customers wanted to do whole genome economically the most economically possible, they would outsource to the fifth.
We wanted to know the secrets but that power in the hands of as many customers as possible. And so today we're at a stage where the price differential that a customer can get between running NovaSeq themselves or going through the very big labs is the narrowest it's ever been. And so that's very exciting for our customer. And so we want to get NovaSeq’s out there and want to catalyze the upgrade from the HiSeq base. And so as long as we're democratizing access as long as we're decentralizing access to high throughput sequencing, that's sort of the strategic win for us.
That will generate a pull through number and now we've had a couple of years of data and a million dollar numbers higher than some people thought and so we wanted to share that number. So people knew sort of where we were. That number will move around a little bit going forward. We just launched the S prime, the S1, S2 flow cell that we priced and we only have 25% of our HiSeq customers have bought NovaSeq so far.
So it's still three quarters to buy. And so that number will move around. We said that we expect that number to drift up over the course of this year and where it makes sense, we will provide that number as relevant but we won't be updating that number quarter.

是的,NovaSeq通过号码,我认为这是人们如何模拟我们的业务的重要数字。所以我将谈谈建立他们的模型。每台仪器有多少仪器和平均值。从我们的角度来看,虽然拉动数字确实是一个结果,但我们并没有尝试优化我们想要对NovaSeq做什么,我们希望确保我们能够实现高吞吐量排序的民主化我们想要做的是将我们最高端机器的强大功能投入到比以往更多的实验室中。

如果你看看我们之前的位置,我们拥有的最强大的电影机是HiSeq X,世界上只有不到50个客户买了HiSeq X,如果你买了HiSeq X,你就有了显着的价格优势在进行全基因组测序时,比购买HiSeq 2500,3000,4000的客户更有市场创造的动态是你拥有800个HiSeq客户,50个X以下的客户以及这些客户是否想要经济上最经济地做全基因组可能,他们将外包给第五名。

我们想知道秘密,但掌握尽可能多的客户手中的权力。因此,今天我们处于一个阶段,客户可以在运行NovaSeq之间或通过非常大的实验室之间获得的价格差异是迄今为止最小的。这对我们的客户来说非常令人兴奋。因此我们希望将NovaSeq放在那里,并希望促进HiSeq基础的升级。因此,只要我们将访问权限分散到高吞吐量排序,我们就可以实现访问的民主化,这对我们来说就是战略性胜利。

这将产生一个拉动数字,现在我们有几年的数据和一百万美元的数字高于一些人的想法,所以我们想分享这个数字。所以人们知道我们在哪里。这个数字将会向前移动一点点。我们刚刚推出了我们定价的S prime,S1,S2流通池,到目前为止我们只有25%的HiSeq客户购买了NovaSeq。

所以现在还需要三个季度才能购买。所以这个数字会随处移动。我们说我们希望这个数字在今年的过程中有所上升,在合理的情况下,我们会提供相关的数字,但我们不会更新该数字季度。

Patrick Donnelly

Okay. And then maybe thinking about democratizing the flow cell changes. Let me just talk through how that is catalyzing some of the lower throughput HiSeq users again the S1, S Prime, the price stream, what went into that decision, how the reception has been?

好的。 然后可能考虑将流动池变化民主化。 让我来谈谈如何催化一些较低吞吐量的HiSeq用户再次购买S1,S Prime,价格流,进入该决定的内容,接收方式如何?

Francis deSouza

Yes, so the way we thought about the NovaSeq upgrade cycle as we've talked about it being three to five year upgrade process. And then we'd launch the NovaSeq in 2017, the way we thought about it is the first customers that will upgrade are going to be the highest throughput labs. They're going to be and we expected to be the commercial lab. And the reason for that is a lot of academic customers have to go through the grant writing cycle. And so when we launched a product in Q1, we knew that a lot of the academic customers and Core Labs will have to wait until the next grant cycle before they can get the funds to buy NovaSeq.
We also knew that a lot of big projects were already underway from a research perspective. And so those labs that are doing those projects, those funding agencies that were funding those projects weren't going to want to switch midstream from an X to a NovaSeq. And so the first year was really primarily around making sure we were activating the very large high throughput customers and then we knew that starting the second year we'd start to see some of the grants kick in and more of the academic customers coming.
And then this year the third year the intent is to catalyze the low end of that. It's still the high throughput customer, it’s the low end of that customers in the Core Labs and to do that we had to do a number of things. One is we had to provide a full scale that was sized to the sample volume that those Core Labs would see and that's what you saw with the S Prime. We also had to lower the price of the S1 of the S2 to make it accessible to those customers. The other thing that we did with the S Prime was we gave the longer read capabilities to 250. And what we've heard from our customers was that was still one advantage that customers had in running the 2500 that they weren't able to match on the NovaSeq.
And so the portfolio that came out this year closes that gap. And so if you were using that and there's still some applications where that's relevant you now had access to that capability on NovaSeq and so those are the customers that were catalyzing this year. And that's sort of the reaction we're seeing their reaction to S Prime in Q1 as we said was very positive.
The thing that surprised us overlaid in all of these years as we saw it in 2017, we saw it in 2018, we saw in Q1 was the percentage of customers that were new to sequencing or straight from bench tops, the new to high throughput that came in with note, that came in larger than we expected and north of 25% in each of those in each of those periods. We weren't expecting to be quite that.

是的,所以我们考虑NovaSeq升级周期的方式,因为我们已经谈过它是三到五年的升级过程。然后我们将在2017年推出NovaSeq,我们认为这是第一批升级的客户将成为最高吞吐量的实验室。他们将会成为商业实验室。其原因是许多学术客户必须经历授权写作周期。因此,当我们在第一季度推出产品时,我们知道很多学术客户和核心实验室必须等到下一个授权周期才能获得购买NovaSeq的资金。

我们也知道很多重大项目已经从研究的角度出发。那些正在进行这些项目的实验室,那些为这些项目提供资金的资助机构并不想将中游从X转换为NovaSeq。因此,第一年主要是确保我们激活非常大的高吞吐量客户,然后我们知道从第二年开始,我们开始看到一些补助金开始,更多的学术客户来了。

然后今年第三年的意图是催化低端。它仍然是高吞吐量的客户,它是核心实验室中客户的低端,为此我们必须做很多事情。一个是我们必须提供一个完整的规模,其大小与核心实验室将看到的样本量一样,这就是你用S Prime看到的。我们还必须降低S2的S1的价格,以使这些客户可以访问它。我们对S Prime做的另一件事是我们将更长的读取能力提供给250.我们从客户那里听到的是,客户在运行2500时无法与之匹配的优势之一在NovaSeq上。

因此,今年出现的投资组合弥补了这一差距。因此,如果您正在使用它,并且仍然存在一些相关的应用程序,您现在可以在NovaSeq上访问该功能,因此这些是今年催化的客户。这就是我们在第一季度看到他们对S Prime的反应的那种反应,正如我们所说的非常积极。

我们在2017年看到的所有这些年来都让我们感到惊讶的是,我们在2018年看到它,我们在第一季度看到了新的测序或直接来自台式机的客户百分比,新的高吞吐量请注意,这比我们预期的要大,并且在每个时期的每个中都超过25%。我们并没有想到会那样。

Patrick Donnelly

And maybe just shifting over to the PacBio side. Maybe just update us on where you guys stand there and maybe some quick background of deal for us?

也许只是转移到PacBio方面。 也许只是更新我们你们站在那里的地方,也许是我们的快速交易背景?

Francis deSouza

Yes, so we announced in the fall of last year that we were acquiring PacBio, PacBio provide sequencers in the long read market. So that's about 5% of the overall sequencing market that we actually don't serve today. And it’s a segment of the market where customers will want to sequence for example a new species where there isn't a reference genome or they'll want to or applications like organ transplant, they want to read parts of the genome for example where it's hard to read using short read technology.
We play in different parts of the market. You wouldn't use a long read sequencer for example in markets like NIPT where you're reading 160 base fragments reading it 10,000 it doesn't make sense for those markets, it's a higher cost per sequencing to do the long read sequencing.
But in those markets where you want that data that's what you'll do. So we announced last year that we are looking to acquire PacBio. That acquisition will require approval both in the U.S. and in the U.K. and we're in process with both the FTC here in the U.S. and the CMA. We said we expect that acquisition to close mid-year and that we're expecting to hear back from both the CMA and the U.K. and the FTC in the U.S.
In the U.S., the decision will be made by the five commissioners of the FTC and in the CMA, we'll be hearing about they’re in the first phase of review and the choices are they can approve it, reject it or they can move into a second phase of review. And so we don't really have new news around that, we're still in that process.

是的,所以我们在去年秋天宣布我们收购了PacBio,PacBio在长期阅读市场中提供了测序仪。因此,我们今天实际上没有服务的整个测序市场约占5%。而且它是市场的一部分,客户想要排序,例如没有参考基因组或他们想要的新物种或器官移植等应用,他们想要阅读基因组的部分,例如它的位置使用短读技术难以阅读。

我们在市场的不同部分发挥作用。你不会在像NIPT这样的市场中使用长读取序列器,在那里你正在读取160个基本片段,读取它对于那些市场没有意义的10,000个基因片段,进行长读取测序的每次测序成本更高。

但是在那些您想要数据的市场中,这就是您要做的事情。所以我们去年宣布,我们正在寻求收购PacBio。该收购将需要在美国和英国获得批准,我们正在与美国的FTC和CMA进行交易。我们表示,我们预计此次收购将在年中结束,我们期待收到美国CMA,英国和美国联邦贸易委员会的回复。

在美国,将由FTC的五个委员和CMA做出决定,我们将听到他们处于审查的第一阶段,他们可以批准选择,拒绝或者他们可以进入第二阶段的审查。所以我们并没有真正有新的消息,我们仍然在这个过程中。

Patrick Donnelly

Okay. Maybe just on the competitive landscape you guys have long held a pretty dominant market share. Maybe just talk through any changes there particularly maybe in China, we've seen some IP lawsuits buyback and forth with you guys. Maybe just an update?

好的。 也许只是在竞争格局上,你们一直占据着相当大的市场份额。 也许只是谈谈中国的任何变化,特别是在中国,我们已经看到一些知识产权诉讼与你们一起回购。 也许只是一个更新?

Francis deSouza

Yes, look with the market as big as the sequencing market with a market that is rapidly growing as the sequencing market. We expect to see and we'll continue to see competition, we'll see existing players in our short rate market for example. You have companies like Thermo that acquired technology and they have a sequencer companies like Caogen in that market. You have PGI in China that's in that market. And then you see every year there are sort of the new companies that are funded by the venture community. So we look at those as well. Across the board and it's true for all our franchises or assays including our sequencers. We have a very strong IP position.
Both around our SPS, our sequencing technology as well as some of our assay technology and we are vigilant in protecting our position. And so we are currently, we filed IP infringement lawsuits against PGI in markets where we've seen them because we believe they infringe on our SPS technology and we'll continue to do that. We fully expect to compete. We expect people to innovate on their own technologies. But if we feel that somebody is infringing, we will protect ours.

是的,看看与测序市场一样大的市场,市场正在作为测序市场快速增长。我们期待看到并且我们将继续看到竞争,例如,我们将看到我们的短期利率市场中的现有参与者。您有像Thermo这样的公司获得了技术,并且他们在该市场拥有像Caogen这样的音序器公司。你在中国有PGI在那个市场。然后你会看到每年都有一些由风险投资界资助的新公司。所以我们也看一下。对于我们所有的特许经营或分析,包括我们的测序仪,它都是全面的。我们拥有非常强大的知识产权地位。

围绕我们的SPS,我们的测序技术以及我们的一些检测技术,我们都保持警惕,保护我们的地位。因此,我们目前正在向我们看到它们的市场提起针对PGI的IP侵权诉讼,因为我们认为它们侵犯了我们的SPS技术,我们将继续这样做。我们完全期待竞争。我们希望人们能够在自己的技术上进行创新。但如果我们觉得有人侵权,我们就会保护我们的。

Patrick Donnelly

And maybe since you touched on kind of ventured backed companies one market that's certainly got a lot of attention liquid biopsy side. Maybe just talk about that market. Your guys role in supplying a lot of those customers. And where do you think we are in the progression of coming there?

也许既然你谈到了一些风险投资支持的公司,一个市场肯定会得到很多关注液体活检方面。 也许只是谈论那个市场。 你们这些人为很多客户提供服务。 你认为我们在那里的进展在哪里?

Francis deSouza

Yes, liquid biopsy is very exciting. And the idea there is that you can actually, you can sequence a tumor or tumor fragments by just taking a blood test from the patient rather than getting a biopsy, a tissue biopsy. So as you can imagine that's really exciting in a number of areas. And you have companies like Guardant that are really sort of pushing the envelope and then sort of leading the industry around using our sequencing technology and their assay technology to do blood tests to do a number of things to profile the tumor, to monitor the effectiveness of the therapy and they are very moving quickly, they’ve got MCD, they have got reimbursement in place for using their tests for conditions like non-small cell lung cancer where it’s very hard to get high quality tissue samples of lung cancer right and you certainly don’t want to be biopsying a patient multiple times whereas you can do multiple blood tests to look at the progression of a lung cancer.
But they’ve also got reimbursement for solid tumors as well and you have other players like Grail which we incubated internally to Illumina and then spun out that are looking to use liquid biopsy and blood test to do early stage cancer screening using a blood test, we thought obviously life changing because the survival rates if you catch somebody with a stage 1 cancer across a variety of cancer types is so much higher than if we catch three and four which you do a lot in cancer cycle rectal and pancreatic where there aren’t symptoms, Grail had terrific results which they showed at Pascal Labs and then ASCO again this year and so we’re excited about the progress they’re making in the use of liquid biopsy for cancer screening.
Our role in that is well in Grail’s case we incubated the company and then spun it out but across the we are talking dozens and dozens of companies now in liquid biopsy, we provide the sequencing and so in that space, the application plays very, very well to the strength of our sequencers, you need sequencers that are that can do high throughput sequencing, that can do very deep sequencing in some case, you need very accurate sequencers because of the end of that sequencing run, you are influencing the care of a patient and so those are the customers typically that are aggressive adopters of our high throughput sequencing system.

是的,液体活检非常令人兴奋。实际上,您可以通过从患者身上进行血液检查而不是进行活检,组织活检来对肿瘤或肿瘤碎片进行排序。所以你可以想象在许多领域真的令人兴奋。你有像Guardant这样的公司,它们正在推动这个问题,然后利用我们的测序技术和他们的检测技术引领整个行业进行血液检测,以便对肿瘤进行分析,监测肿瘤的有效性。治疗和他们非常快速移动,他们有MCD,他们已经获得报销,使用他们的测试非条件细胞肺癌等条件,很难得到高质量的肺癌组织样本和你当然不希望多次对患者进行活检,而您可以进行多次血液检查以了解肺癌的进展情况。

但是他们也得到了实体肿瘤的报销,你还有其他像Grail这样的玩家,我们在内部孵化到Illumina,然后旋转出来,希望使用液体活检和血液检测,通过验血进行早期癌症筛查,我们认为明显改变生活是因为如果你在一系列癌症类型中找到患有1期癌症的人的生存率远远高于我们在癌症周期直肠和胰腺中你做了很多而且在那里你做了很多的三个和四个这些症状,Grail的结果非常好,他们今年再次在Pascal实验室和ASCO上展示,因此我们对他们在使用液体活检进行癌症筛查方面所取得的进展感到兴奋。

我们在Grail的案例中的作用很好,我们孵化了公司,然后将其旋转出来,但我们正在谈论数十家公司现在正在进行液体活检,我们提供测序,因此在该空间中,应用程序非常非常鉴于我们的测序仪的强度,您需要能够进行高通量测序的测序仪,在某些情况下可以进行非常深度的测序,您需要非常精确的测序仪,因为测序运行结束,您正在影响一个病人,所以那些客户通常是我们高通量测序系统的积极采用者。

Patrick Donnelly

Okay. Maybe sneak one last one in here, in some the consumer genomics market that was big growth area last year as seem to had a bit of a low here, give us an update on your thinking of that market and then go forward?

好的。 也许在这里偷走最后一个,去年一些消费基因组学市场是一个很大的增长区域,因为这里看起来有点低,给我们一个关于你对那个市场的看法然后前进的最新消息?

Francis deSouza

Yes, to play it out we saw really strong growth in the direct to consumer market in 2017 and 2018 we had now north of 20 million people have had that is done through those DTC companies and the vast majority of that happened in 2017 and 2018 and we’re now seeing a pause in that market. And that’s happening as the market is transitioning from being a genealogy led market to being a health market and over time the health market is a much bigger market than the genealogy market but we’re seeing that transition happen now.
We are also seeing another transition play out which is the story of direct to consumer genomics has really been or see U.S. story and that’s been the vast, vast majority of the revenue of company and really a story driven by two companies Ancestry and 23andMe and you’re seeing both those drag, if those dynamics start to change. We are now tracking over 100 companies in DTC around the world, it’s an exciting stuff happening in China, Japan, Korea and so you’re seeing diversification of that customer base both in terms of number of customers and in geographies. But it will take time sort of that to build.

是的,为了实现这一目标,我们看到2017年和2018年直接面向消费者市场的增长非常强劲,我们现在已经有2000万人通过这些DTC公司完成了这项工作,其中绝大多数发生在2017年和2018年以及我们现在看到那个市场暂停了。这种情况正在发生,因为市场正在从家谱主导市场转变为健康市场,随着时间的推移,健康市场是一个比族谱市场更大的市场,但我们现在看到这种转变发生了。

我们也看到了另一个过渡期,直播到消费者基因组学的故事真的是或者看到了美国的故事,这是公司收入的绝大部分,真的是由两家公司Ancestry和23andMe和你驱动的故事如果那些动力开始发生变化,我们会看到这两种阻力。我们现在跟踪全球DTC的100多家公司,这是在中国,日本,韩国发生的令人兴奋的事情,因此您在客户数量和地理位置方面看到了该客户群的多样化。但这需要时间来构建。

Patrick Donnelly

I think we’re out of time Francis, thank you so much.

我想弗朗西斯已经没时间了,非常感谢你。

Francis deSouza

Thank you so much. We appreciate it.

非常感谢。 我们很感激。

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