Blackstone Group L.P.(BX) 管理层出席摩根士丹利金融会议 (成绩单)

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年06月13日 · 86 次阅读 · 黑石集团

The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE:BX) Morgan Stanley Financials Conference June 12, 2019 12:00 PM ET

Blackstone Group L.P.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:[BX])摩根士丹利金融会议2019年6月12日中午12:00东部时间

公司参与者

Jon Gray - President and COO

  • Jon Gray - 总裁兼首席运营官

电话会议参与者

Mike Cyprys - Morgan Stanley

  • Mike Cyprys - 摩根士丹利

Mike Cyprys

All right. Why don’t we go ahead and get started. Great. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Mike Cyprys, Morgan Stanley’s Brokers and Asset Managers Analyst. And I’ve been asked to read our disclosure statements that we have some important disclosures, including personal holding disclosures, Morgan Stanley disclosures that appear on our public website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures and you should also get them at the registration desk.
So I’m honored to have with us today, Jon Gray, Blackstone’s President and Chief Operating Officer. Jon has been with the firm for 27 years, I believe it is and is currently on the board of directors, the management committee and he was previously Global Head of Real Estate at Blackstone. Also here in the audience is Weston Tucker, Head of Investor Relations. There he is.
Blackstone, as many of you know, is a diversified alternative asset manager, over 500 billion in investor capital under management across four main businesses, private equity, real estate, credit and hedge fund solutions. And as you know, Blackstone recently announced plans to convert from a partnership structure to a C-Corporation effective in July. So with that, Jon, welcome.

行。为什么我们不继续开始。大。大家下午好。我是Mike Cyprys,摩根士丹利的经纪人和资产经理分析师。我被要求阅读我们的披露声明,我们有一些重要的披露,包括个人控股披露,摩根士丹利披露在我们的公共网站morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures上,您也应该在登记处获取。

所以我很荣幸今天和我们在一起,黑石集团总裁兼首席运营官乔恩格雷。 Jon已在该公司工作了27年,我相信它现在是董事会,管理委员会的成员,并且曾担任Blackstone的全球房地产主管。投资者关系负责人韦斯顿塔克也在观众席上。他在那。

众所周知,百仕通是一家多元化的另类资产管理公司,管理着超过5000亿投资资本,涉及四大主营业务,私募股权,房地产,信贷和对冲基金解决方案。如你所知,百仕通最近宣布计划在7月份从合伙结构转变为C-Corporation。乔恩,欢迎你。

乔恩·格雷

It's great to be here.

很高兴来到这里。

问答环节

Thanks for joining us. And before we start our fireside chat, I thought we’d start with some polling questions, so we all [ph] can get a sense of some of the views in the room. So first question, what is the main catalyst that would drive you to buy Blackstone? Is it, a, growth in assets under management; b, fee related earnings growth and margin expansion; c, stronger investment performance, boosting value of the accrued carry receivable; d, cash performance fees [indiscernible]; or e, more positive outlook on macro economic growth and extension of the cycle? So with that, 10 seconds.
Well, I was quick. Do you want to reset that? That was only two seconds. All right. There we go. Wow. This is cool. Yeah. All right. And we'll see. The answer is, b, fee related earnings growth and margin expansion and that's been consistent with what we saw from a number of the other peers that have presented yesterday as well in terms of investor perceptions.
Okay, next question. How much incremental benefit from C-Corp conversion do you see from current levels? Remember, Blackstone announced that they converted -- will convert to a C-Corp in July. How much incremental benefit to the shares from here do you see? Is it, a, less than zero percent; b, zero to 5%; c, 5% to 10%; d, 10% to 15%; or e, 15% plus? 10 seconds.

感谢您加入我们。在我们开始我们的炉边聊天之前,我认为我们会从一些轮询问题开始,所以我们所有人都可以了解房间里的一些观点。所以第一个问题,推动您购买黑石的主要催化剂是什么?是,a,管理资产的增长

乔恩·格雷

We need a little Jeopardy music.

我们需要一点Jeopardy音乐。

Mike Cyprys

All right. We’ll consider that for next year. And the answer is, c, 5% to 10%. Remember, it's a little mixed all over the place. But generally, most people expect some incremental appreciation from here from the C-Corp conversion.
Okay, we’ll bring up the third question. What primary valuation metric do you expect will be the most commonly used to value Blackstone in three years time? Is it, a, sum [ph] of the parts; b, price to earnings; c, DCF; d, price to fee related earnings; or e, dividend yield? 10 seconds. And the answer, b, price to earnings. Is that what you would have picked as well?

行。 我们会考虑明年。 答案是,c,5%到10%。 记住,整个地方都有点混合。 但总的来说,大多数人都希望从C-Corp转换中获得一些增量升值。

好的,我们将提出第三个问题。 您期望的主要估值指标是三年内最常用于评估黑石的? 是,a,部分的总和[ph]

乔恩·格雷

No, but I think it's helpful.

不,但我认为这很有帮助。

Mike Cyprys

Is there one that you would have picked?

有没有你会选择的?

乔恩·格雷

Actually, I think it's a positive thing for us because it says people want to look at us as a company. When I say I wouldn't have picked it, I wouldn't have picked it because I thought this audience would have gotten into this, breaking apart, look at the pieces, but I think more and more as we become a C-Corp, people will look at us like other C-Corps. So, I think it should be the right metric over time.

实际上,我认为这对我们来说是一件好事,因为它说人们希望将我们看作一家公司。 当我说我不会选择它时,我不会选择它,因为我认为这个观众会进入这个,分开,看看碎片,但我想越来越多,因为我们成为一个C-Corp 人们会像其他C-Corps一样看着我们。 所以,我认为随着时间的推移它应该是正确的指标。

Mike Cyprys

Okay. Great. Last question. How do you think the market will value Blackstone’s shares on a PE basis a year from now, assuming no recession? Is it a, 13 times; b, 14 times; c, 15 times; d, 16 times; or e, 17 times or higher? And just as context, Blackstone trades at 14 times consensus earnings today, and the S&P is trading about 17 times today on 2020 numbers. And the answer, c, 15 times.
Great. So why don't we dive in? Lot of different topics to get through. Maybe we could just start off, Blackstone, yourself and others have been on the road meeting with investors post the recently announced C-Corp announcement decision, I guess what's the pitch you've been telling investors and why is it now a good time for investors to be buying Blackstone’s shares?

好的。 大。 最后一个问题。 假设没有经济衰退,您认为市场将在一年后以PE为基础重视Blackstone的股票? 是13次,是13次

乔恩·格雷

Sure. So I will start with the short form elevator pitch and then maybe put in a little detail. First off, we’re in a sector of alternatives that is fast growing and benefiting from some really powerful trends. Secondly, we are the global leader in that sector, growing materially faster than the sector overall, and have built a powerful business that relies on our brand name, not capital.
Third, despite the strength of the business model, we have historically traded at big discounts to the market, both from a multiple standpoint and a dividend yield standpoint. And the fourth is that we think, because of two powerful factors, there's a re-rating process that's starting, that's the C-Corp conversion, number one, and the step up in our fee related earnings is number two.
So I'll just go through each of those. I'll start with the sort of mega trend, which is, everyone here knows we're in a very low interest rate environment around the world, I think lower than almost all of us would have expected looking back a year, 5, 10 years ago. That is leading investors to look for higher rates of return. And it's not just pension funds or endowments or sovereign wealth funds, or individual investors, or insurance companies, it's pretty much everybody.
And when you look at the track record of alternatives, and the data is out there publicly, from our returns, other big players, the public pension plans, you see very strong performance over long periods of time. So almost all those investors are increasing their allocations to alternatives. I spend a lot of time with these investors and it's pretty much universal. So that's the backdrop we're operating in.
Secondly, we are a fast growing player in that space, despite being the largest player. We have grown our AUM six fold since our IPO in 2007. We had gross inflows of over $100 billion in 2017, over 100 billion in ‘18. We said we'd raise even more this year. Why do we raise all this capital? Again, it's based on performance. We've delivered 15 net in private equity, and real estate private equity, both of those over, call it 30 years.
We've done it 14% net in secondaries, 12% in credit. That performance has built up enormous confidence with investors, so that they'll allocate capital to us and trust and allow us to expand. So our secondaries business goes from private equity secondaries to real estate, to infrastructure, to impact, to technology, wherever it goes and that's true across real estate and credit and hedge funds and so forth. And our business is increasingly a branded business.
I think when you think about investment firms, you think about, oh, what are the things they buy and hold, we have 512 billion of assets under management, and less than $2 billion of capital in our funds. Growth for us does not require capital. We have no net debt as a firm and we pay out basically 100% of our earnings between mostly dividends, but also now some share buybacks and our margins today, of our – our FRE margins, 50 plus percent.

当然。所以我将从短型电梯间距开始,然后可能会有一些细节。首先,我们处于一个快速增长的替代品领域,并受益于一些非常强大的趋势。其次,我们是该领域的全球领导者,其增长速度远远超过整个行业,并建立了一个依赖我们品牌而非资本的强大业务。

第三,尽管商业模式有实力,但从多方面和股息收益率的角度来看,我们历史上一直以较大的市场折扣交易。第四是我们认为,由于两个强有力的因素,重新评级过程即将开始,即C-Corp转换,排名第一,而我们的费用相关收益的增长是第二。

所以我会仔细阅读其中的每一个。我将从这种大趋势开始,也就是说,这里的每个人都知道我们处于世界各地非常低的利率环境中,我认为低于几乎我们所有人都期望回顾一年,5,10几年前。这导致投资者寻求更高的回报率。它不仅仅是养老基金或捐赠基金或主权财富基金,个人投资者或保险公司,它几乎是每个人。

当你看到替代品的记录,并且公开的数据,从我们的回报,其他大公司,公共养老金计划,你会看到很长一段时间的非常强劲的表现。所以几乎所有这些投资者都在增加对替代品的配置。我花了很多时间与这些投资者合作,这几乎是普遍的。这就是我们运营的背景。

其次,尽管我们是最大的球员,但我们在这个领域是一个快速成长的球员。自2007年首次公开募股以来,我们的AUM已经增长了六倍。我们在2017年的总流入量超过1000亿美元,在18年超过1000亿。我们说今年我们会涨得更多。为什么我们筹集所有这些资金?同样,它基于性能。我们已经在私募股权投资中获得了15个净值,房地产私募股权投资已经超过30年。

我们已经完成了2%的净值,12%的信用额度。这种表现已经与投资者建立了巨大的信心,因此他们将为我们分配资金并信任并允许我们扩大。因此,我们的二级业务从私募股权二级市场转向房地产,基础设施,影响力,技术,无论走到哪里,房地产,信贷和对冲基金等都是如此。我们的业务越来越多地成为品牌业务。

我认为,当你考虑投资公司时,你会想到,哦,他们购买和持有的东西是什么,我们管理着512亿资产,而我们的资金资金不到20亿美元。我们的增长不需要资金。我们作为一家公司没有净债务,我们基本上100%的收益主要是股息,但现在还有一些股票回购和我们今天的利润 - 我们的FRE利润率,50%以上。

That is a powerful combination and speaks to the branded nature of the business. And we see the growth potential for the business from here. And I'm sure we'll talk about some of that as significant. So, the stock, however, has not reflected that. If you look prior to our conversion announcement, we matched the S&P in terms of total return over that 12 year period. And because we grew so much, what happened obviously, massive multiple compression and high dividend yield, to put it in context, we've historically traded at 10 to 12 times earnings, call it a 30 plus percent discount to the market.
And we've had a dividend yield that is always right around the top of the 150 biggest companies. Generally, the people around us are in the tobacco business or landline phone companies. So we obviously have been looking at this, we do own, the insiders, roughly half the company. And we have been focused on what can we do to get people to recognize this company as very special. And as I said, there are now, I think, two very important catalysts.
The first is this conversion. After tax reform, we steadied this quite a bit. Fortunately, a couple of our competitors did this before as we got to watch the response. We obviously looked at the data, which said 20% of our shares were held by index funds and long-only managers. And a typical company of our size would be more than 60% owned by those folks. We went out and talked to people and what we would hear in talking to people is, look, we can't buy your stock because of the K1.
And it was true of institutional guys. Clearly, the index guys were prohibited, foreign investors were prohibited, we were hearing this everywhere we went. And now that we've made the change, we're hearing a bunch of folks say, hey, we're going to now look at this company, you have a really special and powerful business model, we've never been able to buy it. And this process, yes, the stock has moved up a bit. But people, most of these folks still can't buy until July 1. I think that's very powerful.
And then the second thing, as I mentioned, is this growth in fee related earnings. Our business, we get two sources of income, we get our fee related earnings, management fees against virtually all of our expenses. And then performance related net realizations. And those tend to be more episodic. And obviously, all of you value more of those fee related earnings. What we've said to the marketplace is, we started last Investor Day that because of four flagship funds at the time we were going out to raise and because of the growth in our core plus real estate business, we thought over a reasonable period of time, we would go to $2 a share, at the time we were at low $1, today, trailing 12 months, $1.24.
This was just a fee related component. What's happened since then? We've raised the vast majority of those four flagship funds, approximately $65 billion, most of which was raised in a single closing in each of those funds, something that's pretty extraordinary. If you looked historically, given their scale, and our core plus real estate business has continued to march along and our private REIT in particular has been accelerating. So we think as we go from a third of our earnings being fee related to a majority and overtime even a bigger percentage being fee related, again, the opportunity to re-rate the stock, because we're seeing both growth in earnings and an improvement in the composition.

这是一个强大的组合,并说明了业务的品牌性质。我们从这里看到了业务的增长潜力。我相信我们会谈论其中的一些重要内容。因此,股票并未反映出这一点。如果您在我们的转换公告之前看一下,我们就该标准普尔在12年期间的总回报率进行了匹配。而且由于我们增长如此之多,显而易见的是,大规模的多重压缩和高股息收益率,在上下文中,我们的历史交易价格是市盈率的10至12倍,称其为市场30%以上的折扣。

我们的股息收益率始终位于150家最大公司的前列。一般来说,我们周围的人都是烟草业或固定电话公司。因此,我们显然一直在关注这一点,我们拥有内部人员,大约是公司的一半。我们一直专注于我们可以做些什么来让人们认识到这家公司非常特别。正如我所说,我认为现在有两个非常重要的催化剂。

首先是这种转换。在税制改革之后,我们相当稳定了这一点。幸运的是,我们之前的一些竞争对手在我们观察响应之前就这样做了。我们显然看了数据,其中20%的股票由指数基金和长期经理持有。我们规模的典型公司将由这些人拥有超过60%的股份。我们出去和人们交谈,在与人交谈时我们会听到的是,看,由于K1,我们无法购买你的股票。

对于机构人员来说也是如此。显然,指数家伙被禁止,外国投资者被禁止,我们到处都听到这个。现在我们已经做出了改变,我们听到一群人说,嘿,我们现在要看看这家公司,你有一个非常特殊和强大的商业模式,我们从来没有能够买它。而这个过程,是的,股票已经上涨了一点。但是人们,这些人中的大多数人直到7月1日仍然无法购买。我认为这非常强大。

然后,正如我所提到的,第二件事就是费用相关收益的增长。我们的业务,我们获得两个收入来源,我们得到我们的费用相关收入,管理费几乎所有我们的开支。然后是与性能相关的净实现。那些往往是更多的情节。显然,你们所有人都更重视这些与费用相关的收入。我们对市场说的是,我们上一个投资者日开始,由于当时我们要筹集的四个旗舰基金以及由于我们的核心业务和房地产业务的增长,我们认为在一个合理的时期时间,我们每股2美元,当时我们处于1美元的低位,今天是12个月,1.24美元。

这只是一个与费用相关的组成部分。从那时起发生了什么?我们已经筹集了这四个旗舰基金中的绝大部分,大约650亿美元,其中大部分是在每个基金的单笔收盘中筹集的,这是非常特别的。如果从历史角度来看,考虑到它们的规模,我们的核心和房地产业务继续向前发展,特别是我们的私人房地产投资信托基金正在加速发展。因此,我们认为,从我们收入的三分之一开始,与大多数和加班相关的费用,甚至更大的百分比与费用相关,再次,重新评估股票的机会,因为我们看到收益增长和改善成分。

So, we're a persistent bunch, we think this is a very, very special franchise. And the market, I think, is starting to see this. And the idea that you can raise capital and move into adjacencies and grow without putting up capital and that you're really differentiated in your space, I think that's powerful. And the idea that we still trade at discounts to market to us still seems a bit odd and we're hoping that that will change, it's begun. We think we're still early in that process.

所以,我们是一个坚持不懈的群体,我们认为这是一个非常非常特殊的特许经营权。 我认为,市场开始看到这一点。 而且你认为你可以筹集资金并进入邻接关系并在不增加资金的情况下实现增长以及你真正在自己的领域中脱颖而出,我认为这是强大的。 我们仍以折扣价格向我们交易的想法似乎有点奇怪,我们希望这会改变,它已经开始了。 我们认为我们在这个过程中还处于早期阶段。

Mike Cyprys

Do I hear growth, brand, capital light, high margin. Follow up question is, how should we be thinking about or how do you think about what your comp set is, who should we be comping you against?

我听到增长,品牌,资本,高利润。 跟进问题是,我们应该如何思考或如何思考你的组合是什么,我们应该与谁竞争?

乔恩·格雷

Well, if you look at more branded companies, traditionally, they trade at high multiples, because they generate high returns on invested capital and they grow quickly. In financial land, those are companies like MasterCard, and Visa, MSCI and they trade at 30 to 35 times earnings. Now, if I say that to this room, they're going to say, oh, but a component of your earnings are more volatile, blah, blah, blah. I would say, okay, but is 10 to 15 times the right metric for business of our quality that I think has real moats around it and it's difficult to replicate? So, I think if you recognize the power of the brand and what it can do, and the way we can grow, and the way we can distribute out cash flow to investors, I think this re-rating process will get us to a higher multiple. It may take a little bit of time, but I think because of these two catalysts, it feels like it's coming more quickly than certainly in the past.

那么,如果你看看更多的品牌公司,传统上,他们以高倍数交易,因为它们可以产生高投资回报率并且增长迅速。 在金融领域,这些公司包括万事达卡,维萨卡,摩根士丹利资本国际公司,他们以30至35倍的市盈率交易。 现在,如果我对这个房间说,他们会说,哦,但你收入的一部分更不稳定,等等,等等,等等。 我会说,好吧,但是对于我们的质量业务而言,它是正确度量标准的10到15倍,我认为它具有真正的护城河并且很难复制吗? 所以,我认为,如果你认识到品牌的力量,它能做什么,我们的发展方式,以及我们向投资者分配现金流的方式,我认为这种重新评级过程将使我们更高 多。 这可能需要一点时间,但我认为,由于这两种催化剂,感觉它的速度比过去更快。

Mike Cyprys

Great. And you’ve worked at Blackstone your entire career, you’ve built a real estate business into what it is today. You've been in the President role now for about a year and a half. Can you talk about your priorities, as you manage the firm day to day, what has the first one and a half year has been like relative to your expectations?

非常好。 你在整个职业生涯中都曾在Blackstone工作,你已经把房地产业务打造成今天的样子。 你现在担任总统一职的角色已经有一年半了。 你可以谈谈你的优先事项,因为你每天都在管理公司,第一个半年与你的期望有什么关系?

乔恩·格雷

Well, that part is very busy, would be the answer. I'll come back to that. So in terms of my priorities, our priorities, I'd start by saying the firm was on a great trajectory. So there was no need to sort of do any dramatic course correction. I'd focus on a few things. First off, in an environment where technology is so rapidly changing so many industries, making sure that we're thinking about growth in all of our areas and transformation is really important.
I would also say, in an environment where multiples are high by historic standards, and you can expect multiple expansion, you need to again buy things that will grow more quickly in order to generate returns. So what does that mean for us? It means we have to be bigger in Asia. We raised our first Asian private equity fund a little over a year ago. Last year, we raised two real estate vehicles in Asia. I'll be in Asia again next week. I think that's a big area -- is a big area of focus.
Life Sciences, another fast growing area, given what's happening in genomics and precision medicine, and the need for capital, we acquired a business called Clarus, have now integrated them in and created Blackstone Life Sciences. I think that's really important. We just hired a senior partner in the growth equity space, again, taking advantage of Blackstone, our scale, what we own, our brand, and then the ability to do more there. And then I would just say more generally, across the firm, thinking about growth, it can be in real estate, it can be in credit, private equity, everywhere across the firm.
Secondarily I'd say that's a real focus for me, integration of the firm. We have a business that operates in some regards, very integrated, but also, we have some large separately run businesses that can benefit from the information we see. So, when you're the largest owner of real estate in the world, that has benefits to your corporate business. When you're the biggest investor in leverage loans and our GSO business, that has benefits. How can we do a better job, systemizing the sharing of information, building a data science business to share, making sure our portfolio companies are communicating, making sure our support functions are working more closely together, our marketing functions, the danger of these businesses is that they're not connected, that you have sort of free floating molecules and making sure we make this as integrated as possible is important.
I would say on the stock side, what we've been focusing on is trying to make this a more understandable and accessible security to own. So, one of the things we did about a year ago, was put in place a share buyback program and just say, hey, look, we're going to keep the organic share count constant, we want to do that for investors, we’re big owners too, that became a goal. We used to use this E&I metric, for those of you who follow the industry, which was a volatile balance sheet metric, which really masked what was happening in the underlying business. When we reflected on it, we talked to you and a bunch of investors out there and we moved to distributable earnings, which is essentially the cash earnings of the business. And if you want to understand our future potential carry, look at our net accrued carry, but we simplified that. And the third step, of course, was the conversion to make our security much more accessible to the world.

好吧,那部分很忙,就是答案。我会回到那个。因此,就我的优先事项,我们的优先事项而言,我首先要说公司处于一个很好的轨道上。所以没有必要做任何戏剧性的课程修正。我会专注于一些事情。首先,在技术如此迅速地改变这么多行业的环境中,确保我们考虑所有领域的增长和转型非常重要。

我还要说,在历史标准的倍数很高的环境中,你可以期待多次扩张,你需要再次购买能够更快地增长的东西以产生回报。那对我们意味着什么呢?这意味着我们必须在亚洲更大。我们在一年多前就筹集了第一家亚洲私募股权基金。去年,我们在亚洲筹集了两辆房地产车辆。下周我将再次来到亚洲。我认为这是一个很大的领域 - 是一个重点关注的领域。

生命科学,另一个快速发展的领域,鉴于基因组学和精准医学正在发生的事情,以及对资本的需求,我们收购了一家名为Clarus的企业,现在已将它们整合并创建了Blackstone Life Sciences。我认为这非常重要。我们刚刚在增长股权领域聘请了一位资深合伙人,再次利用Blackstone,我们的规模,我们拥有的,我们的品牌,以及在那里做更多的能力。然后我会更广泛地说,整个公司,考虑增长,它可以是房地产,它可以是信贷,私募股权,整个公司的所有地方。

其次,我会说这是我真正关注的焦点,即公司的整合。我们有一个业务在某些方面运作,非常一体化,但是,我们有一些大型独立运营的业务,可以从我们看到的信息中受益。因此,当您是世界上最大的房地产所有者时,这对您的公司业务有利。当您是杠杆贷款和我们的GSO业务的最大投资者时,这会带来好处。我们如何才能做得更好,系统化信息共享,建立数据科学业务以分享,确保我们的投资组合公司正在沟通,确保我们的支持功能更紧密地合作,我们的营销职能,这些业务的危险是因为它们没有连接,你有一些自由漂浮的分子,并确保我们尽可能地整合它是很重要的。

我会说在股票方面,我们一直在关注的是试图让这个更容易理解和更容易获得。所以,我们大约一年前所做的事情之一就是实施股票回购计划,只是说,嘿,看,我们要保持有机股份数不变,我们想为投资者这样做,我们“也是大业主,这成了一个目标。我们过去常常使用这个E&I指标,对于那些关注行业的人来说,这是一个不稳定的资产负债表指标,它真正掩盖了基础业务中发生的事情。当我们反思它时,我们与你和一群投资者进行了交谈,我们转向可分配收益,这基本上就是业务的现金收益。如果您想了解我们未来的潜在进展,请查看我们的净应计账面,但我们对此进行了简化。当然,第三步是转换为使我们的安全更容易被世界所接受。

In terms of the experience, I'd say it's been incredible. I love the firm. I love the people at the firm, the energy at the firm, the dynamism about the place, the number of growth initiatives, and the level of caring of the people at Blackstone to work with a group of people who are this committed is extraordinary. I'd say the challenge is, because we run a centralized investment committee process, it is a lot of [indiscernible]. And so, the time demands of the job are significant, plus all the issues that come up along the way invariably operating a business at this scale, but for me, it's the only place I've ever worked and so to have the opportunity to help lead it and work with Steve and Tony James as well, is a great gift.

就经验而言,我认为这是令人难以置信的。 我爱这家公司。 我喜欢公司的员工,公司的活力,关于这个地方的活力,增长计划的数量,以及黑石集团与一群致力于这一目标的人一起工作的关怀程度是非凡的。 我要说的挑战是,因为我们运行一个集中的投资委员会流程,所以很多[音频不清晰]。 因此,工作的时间要求是显着的,加上一路上出现的所有问题总是以这种规模经营一家企业,但对我而言,这是我曾经工作的唯一地方,所以有机会 帮助带领它并与史蒂夫和托尼詹姆斯一起工作,是一个很棒的礼物。

Mike Cyprys

Great. And Blackstone has grown six fold since the IPO, you mentioned some of the new initiatives, I guess how much growth is really left on the table at this point to drive future inflows. You touched upon some of the new initiatives. I guess, what are the next steps with those?

非常好。 自首次公开募股以来,黑石集团已经增长了6倍,你提到了一些新的举措,我想在这一点上真正留下多少增长来推动未来的流入。 你谈到了一些新举措。 我猜,接下来的步骤是什么?

乔恩·格雷

Yeah. So I’d start with the backdrop I mentioned at the beginning, which is what's driving this growth is a need for return. So, we still see very strong investor appetite for our activities. In terms of where the growth can come from, we have a bunch of engines that are up and just beginning to get to scale. I mean, you've seen our tactical opportunities business, started very small, 30 plus billion.
Same story with our secondaries business; infrastructure, today, relatively small, I think, big potential, particularly as another perpetual capital vehicle, which is another important point about our business, which is the vast majority of our capital is either on 10 plus year contracts or now increasingly in these perpetual vehicles. So, infrastructure, very interesting area, I talked about life sciences, I talked about growth equity.
Core plus real estate today has four vehicles. The private REIT and three open ended institutional funds in the US, Europe and Asia, all now growing fairly quickly. Our public mortgage REIT, again, another perpetual capital vehicle that's been growing very nicely. And then I would say, continue to look at adjacencies in different areas in credit, in private equity and so forth where we can add on.
Then I guess, I’d switch to the channels. And I would say, while we’ll continue to grow in the pension fund channel, sovereign wealth fund, still, there's plenty of room, there are areas where penetration of alternatives are low single digit, retail insurance. So in the retail space, this year, we're going to raise over $20 billion, which is many multiples, I would guess of any competitor in that space. The opportunities there, yes, are for some of our traditional drawdown funds, but are even more so for perpetual capital, for things that are on the shelf for some of our liquid alternatives, our direct lending vehicles.
We can create vehicles, again, based on the power of our brand and our relationship and the confidence in those institutions that can grow to big scale. Retail, early stages, I would say. And there's obviously an opportunity at some point around 401(k). Why does a 22 year old who's got a retirement plan, a target date fund, need daily liquidity for money he or she own access for 40 plus years. And I think policymakers, over time may open that up.
In insurance, in a very low interest rate environment, you can't just be in corporate investment grade bonds. So private credit, something we can create, through our GSO business or real estate debt business becomes very attracted, structured credit, and more exposure to alternatives, again, driving returns. So for us, I sort of feel like the limiting factor in a lot of ways because of the ability we have to raise capital is really about the organization, the culture and the investment discipline. That has to grow, because we cannot do a poor job for our investors. That's the most important thing.
And so because there's so much desire for return, and so much confidence in the Blackstone brand, and domain expertise, I would say in many respects, we're governing this by our ability to roll things out that really are part of our system, and are going to operate at the quality we need.

是啊。所以我从一开始就提到的背景开始,这就是推动这种增长需要回报的原因。因此,我们仍然看到投资者对我们的活动非常强烈的兴趣。就增长的来源而言,我们有一堆发动机正在上升并且刚刚开始扩大规模。我的意思是,你已经看到我们的战术机会业务,开始非常小,30多亿。

与我们的二级业务相同的故事

Mike Cyprys

And given all that growth, and amid all the expected future growth, how do you maintain your culture? What do you have to do differently today versus five or 10 years ago? And how do you evolve the firm here to be successful?

鉴于所有这些增长,以及所有预期的未来增长,您如何保持自己的文化? 与五年或十年前相比,今天你有什么不同的做法? 你如何在这里发展公司才能获得成功?

乔恩·格雷

So that's, I think, when you ask about my job, that's really the most important thing, which is, the key question is, as a business like this grows, how do you maintain the processes, the discipline, the energy, everything that's made the firm so successful over the last 30 years, and I think there are two elements to this. One is really the culture of the place. So you have to get enormously talented people to come to the firm. My favorite stat is we had 15,000 young people apply for 85 jobs, analyst jobs last year.
I would say I'm lucky, I applied a long time ago. That's really important. Get them in the door, and then make sure you have a real meritocracy, where super talented people can rise up and you also are very thoughtful around succession and transition, something the firm I think has done very, very well. And then when you have people in the building, you encourage them to be entrepreneurial, to think about telecom infrastructure in emerging markets or buying single family homes, that the way we generate returns is by finding new geographies, areas to go into being creative. And you have a place that really encourages that. So, that's sort of one side of the equation.
The other side of the equation is having a really robust superstructure that provides order and process connectivity and discipline to all that talent and energy. And so when we create a new business, we don't have a franchise operation where you get the right to the Blackstone name and you report back at the end of the year how you've done. We have centralized investment committee functions, no matter where you are around the globe. We make sure we have very disciplined written memos around heads up committee, pre IC, IC committees, we’re focused on the downside on technological disintermediation, rising interest rates, regulatory risk, currency risk, labor costs going up and we plug this all together.
And the key thing is, as we move into a new area, as we build out our infrastructure business, they get in a 11 o'clock slot on Monday to review their deals, we populate it with a group of our senior most professionals who sit there and review those transactions and we have the same process. And to me, that's core to the business. And if you said, what do I think the most about it, as we grow, we maintain this, we move our people around the world, we bring them together, lots of little things, we've moved our partners’ meetings to the mornings, instead of the evening, so our Asian and European partners, you travel a ton, you really want to keep this thing together as you grow. And if we do that, then we can benefit from this enormous scale and reach an ability to write big checks and nobody else can. And yet, we're still super disciplined and super tight.

所以,我认为,当你询问我的工作时,这真的是最重要的事情,关键问题是,随着这样的业务增长,你如何维持流程,纪律,能量,一切都是在过去的30年里,公司取得了如此成功,我认为这有两个要素。一个是真正的文化。因此,你必须让非常有才华的人来到公司。我最喜欢的数据是,去年我们有15,000名年轻人申请了85个工作岗位。

我会说我很幸运,很久以前我申请了。这非常重要。让他们进入大门,然后确保你有一个真正的精英,超级有才能的人可以站起来,你也非常考虑到继任和过渡,我认为公司做得非常非常好。然后,当你在建筑物中有人时,你鼓励他们具有企业家精神,思考新兴市场的电信基础设施或购买单户住宅,我们产生回报的方式是找到新的地理位置,创造性的领域。你有一个真正鼓励这个的地方。所以,这就是方程式的一个方面。

等式的另一面是具有非常强大的上层结构,为所有人才和能源提供秩序和流程连通性和纪律。因此,当我们创建新业务时,我们没有特许经营业务,您可以获得Blackstone名称的权利,并在年底向您报告您的业绩。无论您身在何处,我们都拥有集中的投资委员会职能。我们确保我们在负责委员会,预备IC,IC委员会之间有非常严谨的书面备忘录,我们专注于技术脱媒,利率上升,监管风险,货币风险,劳动力成本上升的缺点,我们将这一切都插入一起。

关键是,随着我们进入一个新的领域,当我们建立基础设施业务时,他们会在周一11点进入审查他们的交易,我们将与一群我们最资深的专业人士一起填写。坐在那里审查这些交易,我们有相同的过程。对我来说,这是业务的核心。如果你说,我认为最重要的是,随着我们的成长,我们保持这一点,我们将我们的人员带到世界各地,我们将他们聚集在一起,很多小事情,我们已经将合作伙伴的会议转移到了早上,而不是晚上,所以我们的亚洲和欧洲伙伴,你旅行了很多,你真的想在你成长的时候把这个东西放在一起。如果我们这样做,那么我们就可以从这个巨大的规模中受益,并达到编写大支票的能力,而其他任何人都无法做到。然而,我们仍然是超级纪律和超级紧张。

Mike Cyprys

Great. Want to dive into some of the newer initiatives, maybe just starting off with BREIT, that’s been a focus of the firm recently, strategy is raising, I think about 600 million a month, if I'm not mistaken. Can you talk about what's special about this product? How big do you think this could be? And maybe you could also touch upon broadly, how do you think about retail investors becoming more invested, gaining exposure to real estate in a bigger way?

非常好。 想要深入了解一些较新的举措,也许只是从BREIT开始,这最近一直是公司的焦点,战略正在提高,我认为每月约6亿,如果我没有弄错的话。 你能谈谈这个产品有什么特别之处吗? 你认为这有多大? 也许你也可以广泛地谈谈,你如何看待散户投资者变得更加投资,以更大的方式获得房地产?

乔恩·格雷

So, the history of private REITs is bad. So historically, this was sort of a backwater of finance, where you would charge 10 points upfront to the investor, you'd layer that with acquisition, disposition and financing fees, you'd hire a bunch of people somewhere in a warehouse in Phoenix or Dallas, who didn't have a lot of investing experience, who would buy high yielding properties, even if they were leased way above market to get a dividend yield. And then it would end with losses, substantial losses for the investors and litigation. And that went on for 25 or 30 years in different places.
And we had a simple view that what if we brought Blackstone quality expertise underwriting, adding value to the underlying assets, charged investors basically what we charged our institutional clients. Wouldn't investors like that? And we were able to convince some of the big wire houses who were nervous about this product, to do it with us. And again, I think it speaks to the power of our brand that these firms said, okay, we trust you Blackstone, and we’ll do this. And we’ve built a product that's performed extremely well, that's focused primarily on rental housing, and also on logistics assets in basically the smile states, has performed great for the investors, the customers like it.
And because it's 10.99, we're starting to --we get investors now around the world where it's continuing to grow out, and the capital is growing. And 600 plus million dollars a month, when you do the math, the power of that is significant and again, speaks to the strength of the franchise and what can be created. This was an idea, 2.5 years ago. That's now going to grow to be, I think, over time, one of the largest businesses at Blackstone, and it says to us, in the retail channel, if we build things that meet the investors’ needs and this case is liquidity, yield and asset class, they like real estate, that there is a big audience for our products.

因此,私人房地产投资信托基金的历史很糟糕。因此,从历史上看,这有点像金融的后果,你可以向投资者收取10点积分,你可以通过收购,处置和融资费用来支付,你可以在凤凰城的仓库里雇佣一大群人或者达拉斯,他们没有很多投资经验,谁会购买高收益的房产,即使他们以高于市场的方式租赁以获得股息收益率。然后它将以亏损,投资者和诉讼的重大损失告终。这在不同的地方持续了25或30年。

我们有一个简单的观点,即如果我们带来黑石质量专业知识承销,增加基础资产的价值,基本上是我们向机构客户收取费用的投资者。投资者不会那样吗?我们能够说服一些对这种产品感到紧张的大型电线公司,并与我们合作。再说一遍,我认为这些公司所说的我们品牌的力量说得好,好吧,我们相信你是Blackstone,我们会做到这一点。我们已经建立了一个表现非常出色的产品,主要集中在出租房,而且基本上是微笑状态的物流资产,对投资者和客户都很喜欢。

因为它是10.99,我们开始 - 我们现在让投资者在世界各地继续发展,并且资本正在增长。每月600多万美元,当你进行数学计算时,这种力量是重要的,并且再次说明了特许经营的力量和可以创造的东西。这是一个想法,2。5年前。我认为,随着时间的推移,这将是黑石集团最大的业务之一,如果我们建立满足投资者需求的东西,这个案例就是流动性,收益率和资产类一样,他们喜欢房地产,我们的产品有很多受众。

Mike Cyprys

Insurance, just another new initiative, it's something you've been involved with for years, you've always had insurance clients going back many years, I guess. So, what, I guess, how do you think about the new initiative here relative to what you've been doing in the space historically, how big is the opportunity? But also, how are you differentiating in the marketplace versus some of the competitors out there?

保险,这是另一项新计划,这是你多年来一直参与的事情,我猜你一直有保险客户可以追溯多年。 那么,我想,你怎么看待这里的新举措相对于你在历史上一直在做的事情,机会有多大? 但是,您如何区分市场与一些竞争对手?

乔恩·格雷

So again, I think the need here is about returns and the need to move beyond sovereign bonds and corporate investment grade. We see it, as we've served insurance clients historically, they've been relatively limited in the amount of alternatives they've done. We're now saying, there's an openness to doing more of that, there's an openness to more structured credit that they moved away from certainly post-crisis and there's definitely an openness in the US and Europe to more private credit that we originate.
And so our thought here is to serve both third-party insurance companies, as well as more strategic relationships, which we have with Fidelity & Guaranty, which we own a stake in as well. I see this as an asset class that has something like $30 trillion globally, that needs to generate higher rates of return. We brought on all sorts of people around risk and regulatory capital, legal, we’re building this again like any Blackstone business for the long term. And so I think the potential is significant. I'm not going to predict the timing of when this happens. But I think certainly from an AUM and an earnings perspective, I think this can be a meaningful contributor over time.

因此,我认为这里需要的是回报以及超越主权债券和企业投资等级的必要性。我们看到,正如我们历来为保险客户服务的那样,他们在替代品方面所做的相对有限。我们现在说,开放更多的是开放性,对于更有条理的信贷是开放的,他们在危机后肯定会离开,而美国和欧洲肯定会对我们产生的更多私人信贷开放。

因此,我们的想法是服务于第三方保险公司,以及我们与Fidelity&Guaranty建立的更具战略性的关系,我们也持有该公司的股份。我认为这是一个资产类别,全球有30万亿美元,需要产生更高的回报率。我们带来了各种各样的风险和监管资本,合法的人,我们正在重建这个问题,就像黑石公司的长期业务一样。所以我认为潜力很大。我不打算预测何时会发生这种情况。但我认为从AUM和盈利的角度来看,我认为随着时间的推移,这可能是一个有意义的贡献者。

Mike Cyprys

Taking a step back, maybe we could talk about the broader macro environment, nine years into a bull market here, starting to see some cracks show, I guess, what's your take on the US and global economy?

退一步,也许我们可以谈谈更广泛的宏观环境,九年进入牛市,开始看到一些裂缝显示,我想,你对美国和全球经济的看法是什么?

乔恩·格雷

Yeah. So the US economy started decelerating, let's say, a little bit over a year ago, it felt like up until six weeks ago, with the Fed going a little more dovish, the trade thing at that time, feeling like it was going to get resolved, that we were getting a little bit of a bounce, by the way, Europe and China had slowed more than the US. I think it's too soon to say how significant the impact of the trade friction will be, although we're seeing the Fed and central banks around the world become a little more dovish, which is helpful.
But I think we're still in sort of the same place, a slower rate of growth than we were a year before. We talked -- the hotel business has gone from sort of same store revenues, nationally from 3% to 2%. To me, that's sort of a good proxy, we've seen a deceleration. But I don't -- on the flip side, we don't see the kind of excesses in housing, commercial real estate, banking that generally precipitate a recession.
So we're operating under the assumption over the next couple of years that growth will be slower, but again, not negative. The bigger challenge, of course, is investors with as I said, multiples pretty high, where do you find opportunity, in this kind of backdrop, which is a bit more of a challenge. But overall, I think we'd be in the camp of, growth continues, albeit at this somewhat slower pace.

是啊。所以美国经济开始减速,比如一年多一点,这感觉好像直到六周前,美联储稍微温和一点,当时的交易,感觉它会得到我们得到了一些反弹,顺便说一句,欧洲和中国的放缓速度超过了美国。我认为现在说贸易摩擦的影响有多大还为时尚早,尽管我们看到美联储和世界各地的央行变得更加温和,这是有帮助的。

但我认为我们仍然处于同一个地方,增长速度比一年前慢。我们谈到了 - 酒店业务已从同类商店收入,全国从3%增加到2%。对我来说,这是一个很好的代理,我们看到了减速。但我不这样做 - 另一方面,我们看不到住房,商业房地产,银行业的过度行为,这些行为通常会导致经济衰退。

因此,我们在未来几年的假设下运营增长将会放缓,但同样不是负面的。当然,更大的挑战是投资者,正如我所说,在这种情况下,你会在哪里找到机会,这会更加挑战。但总的来说,我认为我们会在阵营中继续增长,尽管速度有点慢。

Mike Cyprys

Which leads my follow-up question, of course, against that backdrop, where are you seeing the most attractive opportunities to deploy capital today, across the globe?

当然,这引出了我的后续问题,在这种背景下,您在哪里看到今天在全球范围内部署资本的最具吸引力的机会?

乔恩·格雷

So, there are a handful of places that I would argue are inexpensive. There's not a lot of distress around the world. I think the secondary space in alternatives is interesting, because the sector has grown so much, there's not a lot of liquidity. I think private lending in Europe, non-investment grade is interesting. There are, I’d call those, a handful of niches, what we’re generally looking for are a few things, situations where we can really add value. So buying a public company or a large division of a public company that has been under managed, where you can really transform that business, we're working on a couple of those today. I think that’s interesting and for us, scale remains a big competitive advantage, be it Thomson Reuters, or the GLP deal we did in the warehouse space recently in real estate.
Beyond intervention in scale, I'd say the main area of focus is where do you have a differentiated view versus the market overall? Where do you see trends differently, and then try to express that, not just in one part of Blackstone, but across the firm. So that would be like the movement of goods from physical retail to online retail. If you believe that, then you go out and buy $20 billion of warehouses, particularly last mile warehouses closed in to serve customers. You buy an online payments business, you buy businesses that do warehouse racking systems, you try to express it in that way.
At the same time, people are doing a lot of online shopping, they're still physically looking for ways to entertain themselves. So what does that mean? By arenas, by exhibitions, and meeting space businesses, by resort, hotels, all sorts of things where people come together, we've been buying gaming businesses, across real estate and tactical opportunities and private equity, all sorts of things because physical entertainment still exists.
In the US, on the energy front, what we're seeing is the impact of the shale revolution, which may not necessarily be great for energy prices, but it's good for energy volumes. So in our energy equity business, try to develop pipelines in our infrastructure business by existing pipeline systems; in our energy debt business, lend against them. We have a public manager who buys public MLPs, called Harvest, try to find a way to express it and you could go through lists of global travel, which is clearly a growth industry, aging demographics around the world.
I think India is on a very positive trajectory now. We've been big players there in real estate where we're the largest office owner in the IT services space. So as you get deeper in the cycle, you go from having your arms really wide, to looking at a more narrow set of opportunities. And that's what's happening. But because of the range of places we operate and scale, we're still finding a way to deploy capital.

所以,有一些我认为便宜的地方。世界上并没有太多的苦恼。我认为替代品的二级空间很有意思,因为该行业增长如此之多,流动性不足。我认为欧洲的私人贷款,非投资级别很有意思。有一些,我称之为一些利基,我们通常寻找的是一些事情,我们可以真正增加价值。因此,购买一家上市公司或一家上市公司的大型部门,您可以真正改变这项业务,我们今天正在开展其中几项工作。我认为这很有意思,对于我们来说,规模仍然是一个巨大的竞争优势,无论是汤森路透,还是我们最近在房地产仓库中做的GLP交易。

除了规模干预之外,我会说主要关注的领域是你与整体市场有何区别?你在哪里看到不同的趋势,然后尝试表达,不仅在黑石的一部分,而且在整个公司。这就像货物从实体零售到在线零售的运动。如果你相信,那么你就去购买200亿美元的仓库,特别是最后一英里的仓库,以便为客户提供服务。您购买在线支付业务,您购买做仓库货架系统的企业,您尝试以这种方式表达它。

与此同时,人们正在做很多网上购物,他们仍然在寻找娱乐方式。那是什么意思呢?通过竞技场,展览和会议空间业务,度假村,酒店,人们聚集在一起的各种事物,我们一直在购买游戏业务,跨房地产和战术机会和私募股权,各种各样的东西,因为物理娱乐还存在。

在美国,在能源方面,我们所看到的是页岩革命的影响,这可能不一定对能源价格有利,但对能源产量有利。因此,在我们的能源股权业务中,尝试通过现有管道系统在我们的基础设施业务中开发管道

Mike Cyprys

Any particular areas that you're avoiding, but that seemed a bit…?

你正在避免的任何特定领域,但似乎有点......?

乔恩·格雷

Well, I would say that sort of deep value more buggy with businesses, I think one of the big challenges today is distressed investing, because a lot of the companies that are distressed face really significant secular challenges, and their businesses are in decline and their multiples are compressing a lot. So, it doesn't mean you won't buy these businesses. But there are lots of media businesses and other type of distribution businesses that are under enormous pressure. Retail is clearly a challenge business, both the stores themselves, doesn't mean every retailer, doesn't mean every geography. But, yeah, sort of in many cases, I'm nervous about being on sort of the wrong side of history, because a lot of these trends feel very powerful and still in early stages.

好吧,我认为那种对企业有更大价值的东西,我认为今天的一大挑战是陷入困境的投资,因为许多陷入困境的公司面临着非常严重的长期挑战,他们的业务正在衰退,他们的 倍数正在压缩很多。 所以,这并不意味着你不会购买这些业务。 但是,有很多媒体业务和其他类型的分销业务面临巨大压力。 零售显然是一项挑战性业务,无论是商店本身,并不意味着每个零售商,并不意味着每个地理位置。 但是,是的,在许多情况下,我对于处于历史的错误方面感到紧张,因为很多这些趋势感觉非常强大并且仍处于早期阶段。

Mike Cyprys

Want to dive in a little bit more on real estate. You mentioned $19 billion GLP transaction, the warehouse acquisition there. I guess, what does that mean for BREP 9, for BREP 8, does that use up the rest of BREP 8 and what attracted you to this particular asset? It seems like some of the logistics prices are a bit high.

想要更多地了解房地产。 你提到了190亿美元的GLP交易,那里的仓库收购。 我想,对于BREP 8来说,对于BREP 9来说,这意味着什么呢?它是否会消耗BREP 8的其余部分,是什么吸引了您对这一特定资产的影响? 看来有些物流价格有点高。

乔恩·格雷

Yeah. So in terms of what it means for the firm, yes, it will end our BREP 8 fund and start our new BREP 9 global fund. I don't know if we’ve said that publicly yet. But yes, that will be the case. I just did. We did the transaction. Interestingly, again, speaking to the power of the platform, two-thirds of it went into the BREP 8, BREP 9 opportunistic complex and a third went in to BREIT and the ability to show up to the seller, and write a single check was very powerful. And investors on both sides of our firm definitely benefited from that.
Why did we do it? As I said, the simple movement of goods from land based retail to online. Today, 20% of apparel in the US is bought online. 10 years ago, it was 5%. I'd be willing to make a guess, it's going to be a lot higher than 20%, when you look out another 10 years, and this particular portfolio, because it was focused on what we called the last mile, which is stuff in New Jersey and in and around LA, Seattle, San Francisco, these places, that's the most valuable logistics real estate, because it's hard to replicate, stuff that's more out in the cornfield, obviously, there's a limit on how much the value there can grow. The infill nature of a lot of this portfolio was quite attractive to us.
And again, it was thematic investing where we had real conviction, you're less exposed here, obviously, to some of the labor cost issues that exist in other portions of real estate today, and you have this powerful trend. We certainly didn't buy it at some bargain basement price. But we think because of the strength of the fundamentals, we’ll do well here. And to put it in context, we've now bought nearly 1 billion square feet of warehouses all around the world since 2010. So we are definitely believers.

是啊。因此,对于对公司意味着什么,是的,它将结束我们的BREP 8基金,并启动我们新的BREP 9全球基金。我不知道我们是否已经公开表达过。但是,是的,就是这样。我已经做了。我们完成了交易。有趣的是,再一次,谈到平台的力量,其中三分之二进入了BREP 8,BREP 9机会主义复合体,第三个进入了BREIT并且能够向卖家出示,并且写了一张支票就是很强大。我们公司双方的投资者肯定从中受益。

我们为什么这样做?正如我所说,货物从陆上零售到网上的简单运输。今天,美国20%的服装是在线购买的。 10年前,它是5%。我愿意做出一个猜测,当你再看10年时,它会高出20%,这个特殊的投资组合,因为它专注于我们所谓的最后一英里,这是新泽西以及洛杉矶,西雅图,旧金山这些地方,这些地方,这是最有价值的物流房地产,因为它很难复制,而在玉米地里的东西更多,显然,那里的价值有多大限制增长。很多这种投资组合的填充性质对我们来说非常有吸引力。

再一次,这是我们有真正信念的主题投资,显然,你今天在房地产的其他部分存在的一些劳动力成本问题,你很少暴露,你有这种强大的趋势。我们当然没有以低廉的价格购买它。但我们认为,由于基本面的力量,我们在这里会做得很好。为了说明问题,自2010年以来,我们已经在全球范围内购买了近10亿平方英尺的仓库。所以我们绝对是信徒。

Mike Cyprys

And probably I guess, where do you think we are in the real estate cycle relative to the overall economic cycle? And how does this recent significant decline in rates so quickly impact that -- the real estate market at all, so how did [indiscernible]?

也许我想,你认为我们在整个经济周期中的房地产周期在哪里? 最近这种显着的利率下降如何迅速地影响了这一点 - 房地产市场根本没有影响,那么[音频不清晰]怎么样呢?

乔恩·格雷

Look, there's a good news, bad news story in commercial real estate if we focus here in the US. The good news is, supply has not come back the way it typically does. It's still in the low 1% range. Demand, which ties to economic growth, is fine. And so you're still seeing declining levels of vacancy, which is a good sign. Generally, this late in an economic cycle, the developers are out there building lots and lots of stuff and that creates issues. So that's the positive.
The challenges that the rate environment has kept cap rates, yields on real estate low. And so there's -- and there's very little distress. So I think real estate, and I've said this publicly, can grow in value, as a sector, but at a lower rate, certainly than it did, let's say, over the previous five years. And again, the importance of sector selection goes way up. So logistics, we like single family, multifamily, rental housing, where we're building today, only 1.2 homes in the United States, probably need 1.5 million or 1.6 million, have really good fundamentals. Places like the West Coast in the United States, Berlin, Bangalore, India, Shenzhen, wherever you see lots of technology and creative industries housed, you're seeing really powerful trends in terms of demand. Obviously, other parts of the country in the world, not as strong.
So I think, again, in real estate, sort of buying the market is probably a little bit tougher. But because of the overall healthy supply demand fundamentals, we don't see any sort of sharp decline ahead.

看,如果我们专注于美国,这里有一个好消息,商业地产的坏消息。好消息是,供应并没有像通常那样回归。它仍处于1%的低位。与经济增长挂钩的需求很好。所以你仍然看到空缺率下降,这是一个好兆头。一般来说,在经济周期的后期,开发人员会在那里建造大量的东西并产生问题。所以这是积极的。

利率环境保持上限率,房地产收益率低的挑战。所以有 - 而且很少有困扰。因此,我认为房地产,我公开表示,作为一个行业,其价值可以增长,但是在过去的五年中肯定会比它更低。同样,行业选择的重要性也在增加。物流,我们喜欢单身家庭,多户住宅,出租房屋,我们今天在那里建造,在美国只有1.2家,可能需要150万或160万,基本面确实很好。像美国西海岸,柏林,班加罗尔,印度,深圳这样的地方,无论你在哪里看到很多技术和创意产业,你都会看到真正强大的需求趋势。显然,这个国家的其他地方在世界上并没有那么强大。

因此,我认为,再次,在房地产领域,购买市场可能有点困难。但由于整体健康的供应需求基本面,我们认为未来不会有任何大幅下跌。

Mike Cyprys

And hotels, that's been an area you've been involved with in the past, whether it's Hilton or Strategic Hotels there, I guess, how are you thinking about that today, as an opportunity set, either on the physical brand side, physical side or on the brand side?

和酒店一样,这是你过去参与过的一个领域,无论是希尔顿还是战略酒店,我想,你今天如何看待这个,作为一个机会集,无论是在实体品牌方面,物理方面 还是在品牌方面?

乔恩·格雷

Yeah. Well, we really like the branded business. And I'm still the Chairman of Hilton, even though we've sold out of that. I think the brands, particularly the biggest best brands have, again, very high return on invested capital businesses. They put up almost no money to Hiltons and Marriott. So, I really like that business.
In terms of physical real estate, the biggest challenge today in the US is the increase in labor costs. And, our expense is now growing faster, or in line with revenues or faster. And therefore, EBITDA growth is very little to negative. And what it makes you look for, again, is geographically places with faster growth, or sectors where there's less construction. So big meetings hotels, big resort hotels are more attractive, sort of run of the mill urban hotels, which are more exposed to the Airbnb phenomena, and are exposed to rising labor costs, become a little less interesting.

是啊。 好吧,我们真的很喜欢这个品牌的业务。 我仍然是希尔顿的主席,尽管我们已经卖光了。 我认为品牌,特别是最大的最佳品牌,再次获得了非常高的投资资本回报率。 他们几乎没有钱给希尔顿和万豪。 所以,我真的很喜欢这个行业。

在实体房地产方面,今天美国面临的最大挑战是劳动力成本的增加。 而且,我们的费用现在增长得更快,或者与收入或更快相符。 因此,EBITDA的增长很少为负。 再次,它让你寻找的是地理位置增长更快的地方,或者那些建筑较少的地方。 因此,大型会议酒店,大型度假酒店更具吸引力,有些类型的城市酒店,更容易受到Airbnb现象的影响,并且面临劳动力成本上升,变得有点不那么有趣。

Mike Cyprys

What happens to some of the mall properties, retail properties that are out there?

一些商场物业,那里的零售物业会发生什么?

乔恩·格雷

I think we're going to see, I think the best malls will see significant capital reinvestment. They'll become more entertainment oriented, more restaurants, smaller size stores will still exist, but will require a lot of capital investment. I don't know if the rents will grow as fast. I think you will see a fair amount of retail that is torn down or repurposed over time. That trend here in the US, and certainly in the UK seems inexorable.

我想我们会看到,我认为最好的购物中心将会看到重大的资本再投资。 他们将变得更加以娱乐为导向,更多的餐馆,规模较小的商店仍然存在,但需要大量的资金投入。 我不知道租金会不会快速增长。 我认为随着时间的推移,你会看到相当数量的零售业被拆除或改变用途。 这种趋势在美国,当然在英国,似乎是无情的。

Mike Cyprys

Great. Maybe shifting gears a bit. Monetization, 2018 was a bit lighter than what we saw in 2017. That was a record year for Blackstone. I guess what does it take for realization activity to pick up from here? And what sort of that market outlook?

非常好。 也许换档了一下。 货币化,2018年比我们在2017年看到的要轻一点。这对Blackstone来说是创纪录的一年。 我想从这里获取实现活动需要什么? 什么样的市场前景?

乔恩·格雷

So, part of it is obviously the stock market and asset values generally, [indiscernible] do people have confidence to make big commitments? That's part of it. The second condition, though, is obviously for the individual assets, be it in private equity or real estate private equity, have we completed our mission, we say buy it, fix it, sell it, if we haven't completed the fix it, we're not going to sell. So it's hard to say, well, the market is at this level, therefore Blackstone can sell this.
What you can look at is the storehouse of value, which is we have accrued carry on our balance sheet at the end of Q1 of, I think $3.22 a share. That should be harvested over the next few years. It's just difficult to say exactly what the timing is. And a lot of it can be based on an individual investment. In ‘17, we sold our European logistics platform that led to a big realization. So it tends to be a bit lumpier.

那么,部分显然是股票市场和资产价值,[音频不清晰]人们有信心做出重大承诺吗? 这是它的一部分。 然而,第二个条件显然是针对个人资产,无论是私募股权还是房地产私募股权,我们是否完成了我们的使命,我们说买它,修理它,卖它,如果我们还没有完成修复它 ,我们不打算卖。 所以很难说,市场处于这个水平,因此黑石可以出售这个。

您可以看到的是价值仓库,这是我们在第一季度结束时累计的资产负债表,我认为每股3.22美元。 这应该在未来几年内收获。 很难准确说出时机是什么。 其中很多都可以基于个人投资。 在17年,我们出售了我们的欧洲物流平台,从而实现了巨大的实现。 所以它往往有点笨拙。

Mike Cyprys

And we're going to open up to the audience questions in just a moment. I just wanted to ask a question about C-Corp. July 1, is that still the date that you expect there and can you just help us understand some of the moving pieces under the hood around taxes, on the tax leakage side, your views around index inclusion and expectations around expansion of the shareholder base.

我们将在短时间内向观众提出问题。 我只是想问一个关于C-Corp的问题。 7月1日,那仍然是你期望的日期,你能否帮助我们了解一些关于税收,税收漏税方面,你对指数包含的看法以及围绕股东基础扩张的预期。

乔恩·格雷

Yes, so it is July 1. That is not changing. On the tax side, as I mentioned, it turned out better than we expected. So low single digit, we said publicly leakage in years one to five on average and low double digit we think afterwards, which was a lot better than when we originally set off on this. As it relates to long-only managers, the meetings we've been having, Weston Tucker, who you noted, Michael Chae, our CFO, have been doing a lot of this, the responses have been very positive. I think people -- most people said, look, we love your company, we know your company, we just haven't been able to buy it. We've seen some of that. Obviously, the share price performance since the announcement has greatly outperformed the market. But we still feel like there's a ways to go because many of these folks have been doing work, still haven't been able to buy.
On the index inclusion side, we would expect as a group of indices who can buy as you know. I think it represents about 40% of the total index investors out there. There are some like S&P who have been -- who are resistant now who have grandfathered certain companies, but said, you can't have dual class stock. What we think is interesting is if you look at the data, the dual class companies have generally, in the S&P, produced more than twice the performance, which makes sense when you have companies like Nike or Berkshire Hathaway or Google, or you have somebody like Steve Schwarzman, who wakes up every day intensely focused on the success of the business. We think investors should have the opportunity to participate in that. And we'll see over time, we hope that changes, but there will be a big chunk of index inclusion that will happen, but we just won't get to all of them, at least not yet.

是的,所以它是7月1日。这不会改变。在税务方面,正如我所提到的,它比我们预期的要好。如此低的个位数,我们说平均在一到五年内公开泄漏,之后我们认为是低位数,这比我们最初推出时要好得多。因为它与长期经理有关,我们所见过的会议,你注意到的Weston Tucker,我们的首席财务官Michael Chae,已经做了很多这样的事情,回应非常积极。我认为人们 - 大多数人说,看,我们爱你的公司,我们了解你的公司,我们只是无法购买它。我们已经看到了一些。显然,自公告发布以来的股价表现大大优于市场。但是我们仍然觉得还有很长的路可走,因为这些人中的很多人一直在做工作,但仍然无法购买。

在指数包含方面,我们期望作为一组指数可以按照您的知识购买。我认为它占总指数投资者的40%左右。有一些像标准普尔一样的人 - 他们现在已经抗拒某些公司,但是说,你不能拥有双级股票。我们认为有趣的是,如果你看一下这些数据,标准普尔的双级公司通常会产生两倍以上的性能,这在你拥有像耐克或伯克希尔哈撒韦公司或谷歌这样的公司时是有意义的,或者你有一些人就像Steve Schwarzman一样,他每天都在醒来,专注于业务的成功。我们认为投资者应该有机会参与其中。我们会随着时间的推移看到,我们希望这些变化,但是会有大量的索引包含将会发生,但我们只是不会得到所有这些,至少现在还没有。

Mike Cyprys

Great. Why don't we see if there's any questions here in the audience? We have microphones coming around. Maybe just on C-Corp, what concerns did you have initially? And how did you get over those concerns? What did it take?

非常好。 为什么我们不知道观众中是否有任何问题? 我们有麦克风出现。 也许就在C-Corp上,您最初有什么顾虑? 你是如何克服这些担忧的? 它需要什么?

乔恩·格雷

Well, we're very value and cash flow oriented, so to say to a group of people who spends all their time discounting cash flows, that you should voluntarily increase and pay more taxes and that's going to lead to a higher NPV. I can tell you that did not happen in one meeting. That was a journey. And look, this was a very big decision for us. And, we just really struggled thinking about that. And I will say that we looked at it analytically, we got to see the other folks in our industry. We saw good signs in all of that. But the most powerful thing was, I think, the feedback we were getting from investors, Weston and I in particular, were up in Boston.
And, this was in February, we went to a bunch of meetings, and at the end of the meetings, we would ask, can you buy the stock, and there would be two of the 10 or 12 PMs in the room who would say yes. And that hit home. And I remember talking to Steve after that, and we were talking and ultimately we had a bunch of meetings with our management committee and board, that you really can't have a security where more than two thirds of the potential buyers won't buy your stock. And given that the leakage ended up being relatively small, ultimately, the decision became fairly straightforward. But because of the importance of it to our shareholders, we wanted to make sure we made the right call.

好吧,我们非常注重价值和现金流,所以对一群花费所有时间来折现现金流量的人说,你应该自愿增加并支付更多税款,这将导致更高的净现值。我可以告诉你,在一次会议中没有发生。那是一段旅程。看,这对我们来说是一个非常重大的决定。而且,我们真的在努力思考这个问题。我会说,我们分析地看待它,我们看到了我们行业中的其他人。我们在所有这些方面看到了好的迹象。但最重要的是,我认为,我们从投资者那里得到的反馈,特别是韦斯顿和我在波士顿的反馈。

而且,这是在2月份,我们参加了一系列的会议,在会议结束时,我们会问,你能不能买到股票,房间里的10或12个PM中有两个会说是。那打到了家。我记得在那之后与史蒂夫谈话,我们正在谈论,最终我们与管理委员会和董事会进行了一系列会议,你真的无法获得超过三分之二的潜在买家不会购买的证券你的股票。鉴于泄漏最终相对较小,最终决定变得相当简单。但由于它对股东的重要性,我们希望确保我们做出了正确的决定。

Mike Cyprys

Okay. Any other questions? A question over here.

好的。 还有其他问题吗? 这是一个问题。

身份不明的分析师

Thanks. Quick question on some of the initiatives that you mentioned, specifically around data science and some of the capabilities and software to implement around portfolio company management, would you go so far as to use some of that data in the investment decision process? Or is it more to improve margins and growth within core companies?

谢谢。 关于您提到的一些举措的快速问题,特别是围绕数据科学以及围绕投资组合公司管理实施的一些功能和软件,您是否会在投资决策过程中使用某些数据? 或者更重要的是提高核心公司的利润和增长?

乔恩·格雷

Yeah, well, I think the data science area is really important. And again, back to an advantage of Blackstone is because of the scale of our business, we can afford today, what is a 15 person data science team that over time, I think will grow to be much larger. And I think getting real time data and investing initially is probably the most helpful thing. Some of that will come from our own portfolio companies, some of it will be accessing third party data. And we're doing that now real time as we're looking at both companies in private equity and in real estate, we looked at it in the context of an infrastructure deal we were doing, there are all sorts of real time data sets that exist, that if you have the right people to access them, they're really helpful.
The second area is with our portfolio companies, we were going through an example this week, where one of our businesses targets a certain type of customer profile. And our data science team was able to say, look, you're going out and talking to hundreds of customers. But here's what the profile of your customers actually, what they look like. And if we run this against what's out there publicly available, and this is an industry where there's a lot of publicly available data, we can make this a much more efficient process. So I think all of us, we were in liquids and alternatives, will the machines get better than us? I think about the machines helping to augment what we do. And we want to be the leader in this and because of our scale, we should be able to invest more than others.

是的,我认为数据科学领域非常重要。再说一次,回到Blackstone的优势是因为我们的业务规模,我们今天能负担得起,15人的数据科学团队,随着时间的推移,我认为会变得更大。我认为获取实时数据和最初投资可能是最有帮助的。其中一些将来自我们自己的投资组合公司,其中一些将访问第三方数据。我们正在实时这样做,因为我们正在寻找私募股权和房地产两家公司,我们在我们正在进行的基础设施交易的背景下看待它,有各种各样的实时数据集,存在,如果你有合适的人来访问它们,它们真的很有帮助。

第二个领域是我们的投资组合公司,我们本周将通过一个例子,其中一个业务针对某种类型的客户档案。我们的数据科学团队能够说,看,你出去和数百名客户交谈。但这就是您的客户的个人资料,他们的样子。如果我们针对那些公开可用的内容进行此操作,并且这是一个拥有大量公开数据的行业,我们可以使这个过程更加高效。所以我认为我们所有人,我们都是液体和替代品,机器会比我们更好吗?我认为机器有助于增强我们的工作。我们希望成为这方面的领导者,因为我们的规模,我们应该能够比其他人投资更多。

Mike Cyprys

Other questions? Well, if you have any questions, just raise your hand, and I'll call you, but maybe if you could talk about direct lending private credit. You're rebuilding your BDC business after selling your last business. So just, can you give us an update on how that's progressing? And how you're differentiating in the marketplace?

其他问题? 好吧,如果您有任何疑问,请举手,我会打电话给您,但也许您可以谈谈直接贷款私人信贷。 您在销售上一笔业务后正在重建您的BDC业务。 那么,你能告诉我们这个进展的最新情况吗? 以及您如何在市场中脱颖而出?

乔恩·格雷

Yeah, so we had a joint venture in direct lending, which is not something we normally do and we like to control our brand and our destiny. So, we exited the vehicle with our partners, we got a $600 million payment. It was a good outcome on both sides. And we said -- and this is really rare, very few organizations would voluntarily give up $20 billion of AUM and say, oh, we can rebuild this. And we've started back on that process. It's now a year plus, we have something like $10 billion now, we've raised the buying power.
Obviously, that's not all in the ground yet, because you raise the capital, you'll deploy it. But it reflects the fact that given our track record in that space, again, and our brand name, we can raise capital in that case, both in the retail systems as well as institutionally. I think our advantage, and the reason why it works is, we're continuing to do what we've always done, which is provide capital to companies who aren't big enough to access public markets to borrow and want a one stop solution. And so we've got a very healthy pipeline in our direct lending business.
I would also, just because we're here, make one other comment around the leverage loan business, which I know this, you read every day in the press about, it is the next subprime according to many of the reports. That area, which we’re also active in syndicated leverage loans, mostly from private equity deals, is seeing very low levels of defaults and has the highest coverage ratios that it's had since the crisis. People talk about covenant light, but that really reflects the fact that the leverage loan market now looks and feels more like the high yield market. The high yield market, which is junior credit, doesn't have covenants, maintenance covenants, because it's distributed credit, and you have a zillion holders.
As the leverage loan market on the senior side has become more and more owned and distributed to CLOs, it makes sense that some of those maintenance covenants go away. But when we look at loan to values, and we look at coverages, we don't see the kind of deterioration where people are comparing this to the subprime market. We actually think it's a pretty interesting space, getting paid LIBOR plus 400, call it, unleverage today, 6.5%, 7% for taking on risk that goes from zero to four times debt to EBITDA on the capital structure.
So generally, private credit still feels like a pretty good business to us, despite a lot of negative color out there.

是的,所以我们有一个直接贷款的合资企业,这不是我们通常做的事情,我们喜欢控制我们的品牌和命运。因此,我们与合作伙伴一起退出了车辆,我们获得了6亿美元的付款。双方都是一个好结果。我们说 - 这是非常罕见的,很少有组织会自愿放弃200亿美元的资产管理规定并说,哦,我们可以重建这个。我们已经开始重新开始这个过程了。现在是一年加上,我们现在有100亿美元,我们提高了购买力。

显然,这还不是全部,因为你筹集资金,你将部署它。但它反映了这样一个事实:鉴于我们在该领域的记录,以及我们的品牌名称,我们可以在这种情况下筹集资金,无论是在零售系统还是在制度上。我认为我们的优势及其运作的原因是,我们将继续做我们一直以来所做的事情,这为那些规模不足以进入公共市场借款并想要一站式解决方案的公司提供资金。 。因此,我们在直接贷款业务中拥有一条非常健康的渠道。

我也会,因为我们在这里,围绕杠杆贷款业务发表另一条评论,我知道这一点,你在媒体上每天都在阅读,根据许多报道,它是下一个次级抵押贷款。该领域,我们也积极参与银团贷款,主要来自私募股权交易,其违约率非常低,并且具有自危机以来最高的覆盖率。人们谈论契约之光,但这确实反映了杠杆贷款市场现在看起来和感觉更像高收益市场的事实。作为初级信贷的高收益市场没有契约,维护契约,因为它是分配信贷,而且你有很多持有者。

随着高级杠杆贷款市场越来越多地拥有并分发给CLO,其中一些维护契约就会消失。但是,当我们考虑贷款价值观,并且我们关注覆盖面时,我们看不到人们将其与次级抵押贷款市场进行比较的恶化程度。我们实际上认为这是一个非常有趣的空间,获得LIBOR加400,称之为,今天的非杠杆,6.5%,7%用于承担从债务的零到四倍到EBITDA的风险。

所以一般来说,私人信贷对我们来说仍然是一个非常好的业务,尽管有很多负面的颜色。

Mike Cyprys

Great. And we had a question in the back. We have two minutes left.

非常好。 我们在后面有一个问题。 我们还剩两分钟。

身份不明的分析师

Yeah, so just thinking about kind of shifting societal trends, private capital, direct lending, something that kind of comes to mind is [indiscernible]. So here's, kind of a sector where there is some yield relative to other sectors where there's a lack of yield, and certainly a flat yield curve and a store for yield. So does Blackstone do anything in this space, I guess, specifically on the real estate side, would that be debt or equity, just kind of curious.

是的,所以只考虑社会趋势的变化,私人资本,直接贷款,某种想到的东西是[音频不清晰]。 所以,这是一个相对于其他收益率较低的部门而言有一定收益率的行业,当然收益率曲线平稳且收益率存储。 因此,黑石集团在这个领域做任何事情,我想,特别是在房地产方面,这将是债务或股权,只是有点好奇。

乔恩·格雷

Yeah, we have big real estate and credit lending businesses. So as I was talking about, we do big leverage lending in the syndicated market, we do direct lending in both Europe and the United States. In real estate, we've got a public mortgage REIT that does first mortgages, we've got a mezz fund, we invest in CMBS. So, we are big players across the credit spectrum. And our strength has been that we started as an equity shop. And that's really made us, I think, very effective on the credit side. And so yes, in this environment, where there's a hunger for yield, be it retail investors, insurance investors, traditional pension funds, all of them are looking for yield. And it's one of the reasons why our credit business has grown to be so large.

是的,我们有大型房地产和信贷业务。 因此,正如我所说的那样,我们在银团市场上做大杠杆贷款,我们在欧洲和美国直接贷款。 在房地产方面,我们有一个公共抵押房地产投资信托基金,它做第一抵押贷款,我们有一个mezz基金,我们投资于CMBS。 因此,我们是信用范围内的重要参与者。 而我们的优势在于我们从一家股票店开始。 我认为,这确实使我们在信贷方面非常有效。 所以,是的,在这种对收益率有所渴望的环境中,无论是散户投资者,保险投资者,传统的养老基金,所有人都在寻求收益。 这也是我们信贷业务发展如此之大的原因之一。

Mike Cyprys

Any other questions? Maybe just last one. As you look out next three to five years, which business at Blackstone you think will be the biggest three to five years from now?

还有其他问题吗? 也许只是最后一个。 当你看到未来三到五年,你认为Blackstone的业务将是从现在开始的三到五年最大的业务?

乔恩·格雷

Well, the question is the measure of biggest. If the measurement is the earnings production, I think real estate has and is likely, because of the growth of the core plus and that perpetual capital will continue to be the largest earnings contributor to Blackstone. I think that will continue.
AUM wise, that's hard to say. Credit with insurance embedded in it could grow to be the largest private equity complex because of what's happening in secondaries and tactical opportunities could grow quite a bit. So, that's hard to say exactly where it is. But I would say again, for us, the focus really isn't AUM. The focus is delivering great returns for our investors, and then delivering great returns for our shareholders. And AUM obviously comes along with it. But we don't want to move into low margin businesses. We don't want to buy AUM, we want to grow the business really thoughtfully.

嗯,问题是最大的衡量标准。 如果计量是盈利产量,我认为房地产已经并且很可能,因为核心加上增长,永续资本将继续成为黑石集团的最大盈利贡献者。 我想这会继续下去。

AUM明智,这很难说。 嵌入其中的保险信用额度可能会成为最大的私募股权投资组合,因为二级市场发生的事情和战术机会可能会有相当大的增长。 所以,很难准确说出它的确切位置。 但我要再说一遍,对我们来说,重点确实不是AUM。 重点是为我们的投资者带来丰厚回报,然后为我们的股东带来丰厚回报。 AUM显然也伴随着它。 但我们不想进入低利润业务。 我们不想购买AUM,我们想要非常周到地发展业务。

Mike Cyprys

Great. Let's leave it there. Thanks very much. Please join me in thanking Jon Gray.

非常好。 我们把它留在那里。 非常感谢。 请和我一起感谢Jon Gray。

乔恩·格雷

Thank you, all.

谢谢你们。

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