埃克森美孚公司 (XOM) 出席摩根大通 2019年 能源电话会议 (成绩单)

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年06月19日 · 65 次阅读

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) JPMorgan 2019 Energy Conference Call June 13, 2019 8:35 AM ET

埃克森美孚公司(纽约证券交易所股票代码:[XOM])摩根大通2019年能源电话会议2019年6月13日美国东部时间上午8:35

公司参与者

Liam Mallon - President, ExxonMobil Upstream Oil and Gas

  • Liam Mallon - 埃克森美孚上游石油和天然气公司总裁

电话会议参与者

Phil Gresh - JPMorgan

  • Phil Gresh - 摩根大通

Phil Gresh

Good morning. I'm Phil Gresh, the North American Integrated Oils and Refining Analyst here at JPMorgan. Next up for today, we have Exxon Mobil. We're thrilled to have Liam Mallon, who's the President of Exxon Mobil Upstream Oil and Gas as of earlier this year. Prior to this role, Liam was the President of Exxon Mobil Development Company since January 2017. And I noted that, Liam, you've been with Heritage, I guess, Mobil since 1990. So almost 30 years at the company and 35 years in the industry.
So we're looking forward to your presentation here today with the spotlight on Guyana for about 35 minutes, I believe. And then we're going to take some questions at the end, and the audience can feel free to ask questions as well. So with that, turn it over to you. Thank you.

早上好。 我是摩根大通的北美综合油和炼油分析师Phil Gresh。 接下来的今天,我们有埃克森美孚。 我们很高兴有Liam Mallon,他是今年早些时候埃克森美孚上游石油和天然气的总裁。 在担任此职位之前,Liam自2017年1月起担任埃克森美孚开发公司总裁。我注意到,Liam,你自1990年以来一直在Heritage,我想,Mobil。在公司工作了近30年,在公司工作了35年。 行业。

所以我们期待你今天在这里的演讲,我相信圭亚那大约35分钟的聚光灯。 然后我们将在最后提出一些问题,观众也可以随意提问。 所以,把它交给你。 谢谢。

利亚姆马龙

Good morning, everyone. Great pleasure to be here and thanks, Phil, for that kind introduction. Special thanks to all of you in the room and for everybody listening in. We appreciate the opportunity. And we know that there is a significant level of interest in Exxon Mobil's upstream strategy. I'm very excited to share my perspectives on our upstream business, which for me, has the richest set of opportunities that I've seen in my 35 year career. That's the five plus that Phil mentioned that I started out with a couple of other companies. But it is the richest set I've seen, and is very, very exciting to be part of it.
It's also an honor to be here. I've had the chance over my 35 year career to live and work all over the world in some of the best countries in the world. And in some of the toughest countries in the world. Never had the chance to work in New York. So I'm not quite sure which bucket to put that in.
So today as Phil said, I’ll spend a little time up front and in the closing with some general upstream remarks. But most of the discussion and -- will be on Guyana. First of all, I know all of you are very interested in Guyana, but also we are very close to bringing the first of those FPSOs to first oil likely early next year. So it's getting very close. And I wanted to give you a sense for the real excitement that's building, both in the country and beyond as we get towards that point.
I've been personally involved on this particular effort for the last five years, very intensely. So, I know it well, and it's a story frankly that for me, I'm thrilled to be given the opportunity to tell you about today.
I'm quite sure there will be interest in other areas such as the Permian. We did do a spotlight on the Permian last year. And in addition, we have a detailed review on the Permian planned actually for Midland, in October. So I will cover the Permian and of course, we can take questions, but it's not the intention of the spotlight for today. So with that, let's begin and let me just say a few words about our standard cautionary statement.
We can't predict the future. It's particularly difficult in our industry given the number of variables that we deal with. And that's really why we don't try. We focus on building a business that's robust to a range of future outcomes. So the future may look materially different than anything discussed today, depending on how these various variables affecting our industry evolve. Additional details are in the material that was this morning posted publicly on the website.
So let me start with just a general comment on our upstream investment strategy. And I would like to just start by thinking through with you how we think about investments. First and foremost, our investments are underpinned by an intent to grow upstream value. They're grounded in a view of long-term demand and supply fundamentals that are shared annually with all of you in our energy outlook.
We know we can create industry leading value through unique, competitive advantages applied to high value opportunities that are resilient across the price cycle. So let me start with the first of these components and that's the fundamentals and why the fundamentals strongly support our strategy.

大家,早安。非常高兴能够来到这里并感谢菲尔,感谢他的介绍。特别感谢房间里的所有人和每个人都在聆听。我们很高兴有机会。我们知道埃克森美孚的上游战略存在很大的兴趣。我非常高兴能够分享我对上游业务的看法,对我而言,这对我35年职业生涯中所见到的机会最为丰富。这是菲尔提到的五个加号,我开始与其他几家公司合作。但它是我见过的最富有的一套,并且非常非常令人兴奋。

能够来到这里也是一种荣幸。在我35年的职业生涯中,我有机会在世界上一些最好的国家生活和工作。而且在世界上一些最艰难的国家。从来没有机会在纽约工作。所以我不太清楚把它放在哪个桶里。

所以今天菲尔说,我将花一点时间在前面,并在结束时提出一些一般性的上游言论。但大多数讨论和 - 将在圭亚那。首先,我知道你们所有人对圭亚那都非常感兴趣,但我们也非常接近于明年年初将第一批FPSO带到第一批石油。所以它变得非常接近。而且我想让你感受到正在建立的真正的兴奋感,无论是在国内还是在我们这一点上。

在过去的五年里,我一直亲自参与这项特别的工作,非常激烈。所以,我很清楚,这是一个坦率的故事,对我来说,我很高兴今天有机会告诉你。

我很确定会对其他领域如二叠纪感兴趣。去年我们确实对二叠纪做了一个聚光灯。此外,我们还详细审查了10月份实际为米德兰计划的二叠纪。所以我将介绍二叠纪,当然,我们可以提出问题,但今天不是聚光灯的意图。那么,让我们开始吧,让我就我们的标准警示声明说几句话。

我们无法预测未来。鉴于我们处理的变量数量,在我们的行业中尤其困难。这就是为什么我们不尝试。我们专注于建立一个对未来结果具有强大影响力的业务。因此,未来可能看起来与今天讨论的任何事情有很大不同,这取决于影响我们行业的各种变量如何演变。其他详细信息在今天上午在网站上公开发布的材料中。

因此,让我首先对我们的上游投资策略进行一般性评论。我想首先考虑一下我们对投资的看法。首先,我们的投资基于增加上游价值的意图。它们的基础是长期需求和供应基本面,这些基本面在我们的能源展望中每年与大家分享。

我们知道,通过应用于价格周期中具有弹性的高价值机会的独特竞争优势,我们可以创造行业领先的价值。因此,让我先从这些组件中的第一个开始,这是基础知识以及为什么基本面强烈支持我们的战略。

It all begins with people. Standards of living, economic activity that supports those increased standards of living. In the next two decades, we expect global population to grow by 30%. Middle class will double from what it is today. There's a billion people in the world today without access to electricity. All of this in our view is expected to result in a 25% increase in demand for energy. In this scenario, oil demand is expected to grow 0.7% per year, driven by commercial transportation and chemical feedstock.
Gas demand is expected to grow by 1.3% per year to meet electricity and industrial demand. This outlook for demand led some to see our industry as relatively low growth. However, and a really fundamental point, this view discuss the impact of depletion. When you factor in depletion rates, the need for new oil grows at close to 8% per year, and new gas at close to 6% per year.
If you look at this chart behind me on the left you can see this interaction of supply, demand and depletion. The dark blue area on the chart shows existing supplies that decline overtime. The top of the both the oil side and the gas side are our demand outlooks. And then the 2 degrees scenario is plotted in the diamond below just so you ground in the chart. So the dark blue is existing supplies declining overtime.
The light blue area on both the oil and the gas shut side shows the additional supplies needed to meet the expected demand. And again, you can see regardless of whether our demand outlook is correct, or if we're in this 2 degree scenario demand outlook, the need for new supply and associated investments in our industry is significant. This suggests actually that perhaps the biggest risk facing our industry today is under investment. The IEA estimates $21 trillion of investments needed through 2040.
For Exxon Mobil, based on our relative production and our relative size, this would suggest we should be investing roughly $33 billion per year. So, based on the fundamentals, we believe there is a compelling case for industry investment, even more so for Exxon Mobil, when taken together with our competitive advantages, and our industry leading portfolio. So let me start by sharing the second component of our strategy, leveraging our competitive advantages.
There are five of these shown on this page, I will cover them pretty quickly, I think you've seen them in some of the forums. And I'll bring some of these to life later as we talk and Guyana, in particular on the deep dive, and you'll see more precisely, how we see these competitive advantages playing out.
Starting with the first one, technology; fundamental competitive advantage that we believe results in not only industry advantaged assets, but also processes, products and applications. On top of that, dramatically improving existing applications and processes and plays a significant role that you'll see clearly in what we're doing in opening up new play areas and new discoveries around the world.
A great example for Guyana is this is the whole subsurface capability, how we integrate our reservoir, geoscience, et cetera, et cetera, through this full wave field inversion technology. That's a processing technique for seismic, that really has been an exceptional way to look at multiple scenarios, real time and really get much more comfortable with what we're doing the pace we can do at and the confidence that we have in what we see in the subsurface.

一切都始于人。支持提高生活水平的生活标准,经济活动。在接下来的二十年中,我们预计全球人口将增长30%。中产阶级将比现在增加一倍。如今,全世界有十亿人无法获得电力。我们认为所有这些都预计会导致能源需求增加25%。在这种情况下,由商业运输和化学原料驱动的石油需求预计每年增长0.7%。

预计天然气需求每年将增长1.3%,以满足电力和工业需求。这种需求前景导致一些人认为我们的行业增长相对较低。然而,这是一个非常基本的观点,这个观点讨论了耗尽的影响。当你考虑到耗尽率时,对新油的需求每年接近8%,新的天然气每年接近6%。

如果你看看左边我后面的这张图表你可以看到供给,需求和消耗的这种相互作用。图表上的深蓝色区域显示现有供应量下降超时。石油方面和天然气方面的顶部是我们的需求前景。然后在下面的钻石中绘制2度情景,以便您在图表中进行磨削。所以深蓝色是现有的供应量下降加班。

石油和天然气关闭侧的浅蓝色区域显示了满足预期需求所需的额外供应。而且,无论我们的需求前景是否正确,或者如果我们处于这种2度情景需求前景,您都可以看到,对我们行业的新供应和相关投资的需求是巨大的。这实际上表明,当今我们行业面临的最大风险可能还在于投资。 IEA估计到2040年需要21万亿美元的投资。

对于埃克森美孚而言,基于我们的相对产量和相对规模,这表明我们应该每年投资约330亿美元。因此,基于基本面,我们认为有一个令人信服的行业投资案例,尤其是埃克森美孚与我们的竞争优势以及行业领先的投资组合。因此,让我首先分享我们战略的第二部分,利用我们的竞争优势。

这个页面上显示了其中的五个,我会很快介绍它们,我想你已经在一些论坛中看到了它们。当我们和圭亚那交谈时,我会带来其中的一些,特别是深度潜水,你会更准确地看到,我们如何看待这些竞争优势的发挥。

从第一个开始,技术;我们认为,基本的竞争优势不仅会带来行业优势资产,还会带来流程,产品和应用。最重要的是,显着改善现有的应用程序和流程,并发挥重要作用,您可以清楚地看到我们在开放全球新游戏区域和新发现方面所做的工作。

圭亚那的一个很好的例子就是整个地下能力,我们如何通过这种全波场反演技术整合我们的水库,地球科学等等。这是一种用于地震的处理技术,这实际上是一种特殊的方式来查看多个场景,实时并真正让我们更加自如地了解我们正在做的事情以及我们对所看到的信心在地下。

Scale, scale covers just about everything we do. But for us being able to leverage our scale, whether that's in terms of accelerating learnings, looking at improvements, managing risks, our financial capability, it allows us to stay committed through the cycles that's fundamentally important, particularly when we look at businesses like the Permian, et cetera, and capture structural advantages with our global portfolio based approach, a key, key, key competitive advantage.
The third one is integration, basically, this is all about optimizing and capturing benefits along the whole value chain regardless of where the value chain starts and stops. And maybe later we'll talk about our new upstream reorganization, if we have time in the Q&A, and you'll see where that is integrated, well ahead to sales point, a very different approach than we've had before.
So this whole concept of being integrated, and being able to capture the benefits along the value chain, regardless of where they are, or where they move to overtime is a significant competitive advantage that applies in all of our facilities, in our organization, and throughout our skills and capabilities.
Functional excellence, the fourth competitive advantage, we were organized functionally for many years. So we were -- we have built a very deep functional capability throughout our company. And we certainly don't intent to lose that in any way with the reorganization. But this concept of being able to bring deep expertise across disciplines quickly and effectively to the toughest issues we have around the world, including on large scale complex resource developments is a key competitive advantage and we’ll demonstrate where we see that most acutely in Guyana.
And lastly, our people, all of this is made possible by our people, our people with world class capabilities, we’ve gained those capabilities through a broad set of challenging assignments and global experiences. And today are connected digitally through platforms to share and capture learnings from one place to another.
So they are the five key ones, each of them in their own right are significant. But when taken together, they provide unparalleled strength and have taken generations for us to establish.
So, now that we've talked about our investment case underpinned by the fundamentals, we've talked about the unique competitive advantages that we believe Exxon Mobil have to make sure those investments are successful. Let me talk about the outstanding portfolio of opportunities, to which we're applying that fundamental view, and those five competitive advantages.
This is all aimed at growing value. Fundamentally, our strategy is about growing value, cash, making sure we're on the left side of the supply curve, and making sure everything we do is resilient across a series of prices. Fundamentally, that's what it's about. And in my opinion, as I said at the very start, it's the best set of opportunities I have seen in my 35 year career.
Let me just quickly hit the five what we call growth areas. And there are many more than this to be clear, and I'll talk about some of those here in a minute. But these are -- these five contribute up to 50% of the earnings potential that we shared with you all back in the recent March Investor Day. All of these are outstanding developments.

规模,规模几乎涵盖了我们所做的一切。但是,对于我们能够利用我们的规模,无论是在加速学习,寻求改进,管理风险,我们的财务能力方面,它都使我们能够在基本重要的周期中保持承​​诺,特别是当我们看到像二叠纪等,利用我们基于全球投资组合的方法捕捉结构优势,这是一个关键的关键竞争优势。

第三个是整合,基本上,无论价值链在哪里开始和停止,这都是关于优化和捕获整个价值链的利益。如果我们有时间参与问答,我们可能会谈到我们新的上游重组,你会看到它在哪里整合,远远超过销售点,这是一种与以前不同的方法。

因此,这整个整合的概念,能够在价值链中获取利益,无论它们在何处,或者在何时加班,都是一个重要的竞争优势,适用于我们所有的工厂,我们的组织,以及贯穿我们的技能和能力。

功能卓越,第四个竞争优势,我们在功能上组织了多年。所以我们 - 我们在整个公司内部建立了非常深厚的功能。我们当然不打算以重组方式以任何方式失去这一点。但是,能够快速有效地将跨学科的深厚专业知识带到世界各地最棘手的问题上,包括大规模的复杂资源开发,这是一个关键的竞争优势,我们将展示我们在圭亚那最敏锐的地方。 。

最后,我们的员工,所有这一切都是由我们的员工,具有世界级能力的员工实现的,我们通过广泛的挑战性任务和全球经验获得了这些能力。今天,通过平台以数字方式连接,共享和捕捉从一个地方到另一个地方的学习。

所以他们是五个关键的,每个人本身都很重要。但是,当它们结合在一起时,它们提供了无与伦比的力量,并为我们建立了几代人。

因此,既然我们已经谈到了基本面支撑的投资案例,我们就谈到了我们认为埃克森美孚必须确保这些投资成功的独特竞争优势。让我谈谈我们正在应用这一基本观点的优秀机会组合,以及这五大竞争优势。

这一切都旨在增加价值。从根本上说,我们的策略是增加价值,现金,确保我们处于供给曲线的左侧,并确保我们所做的一切都在一系列价格中具有弹性。从根本上说,这就是它的意义所在。在我看来,正如我在一开始所说的,这是我在35年职业生涯中看到的最好的机会。

让我快速点击我们称之为增长领域的五个。还有很多东西要清楚,我会在一分钟内谈谈其中的一些。但这些是 - 这五个因素贡献了我们在最近的3月投资者日期间与您分享的盈利潜力的50%。所有这些都是杰出的发展。

Starting with the Permian, we are on track to deliver on the million barrels a day by 2024. We believe our innovative development plan is key to that. And we continue to see and achieve the milestones that we set out for ourselves.
In Mozambique, area for potential is up to eight trains, 40 million tons. And the first two trains that 15 you see, we said that we would start up by 2025. What I will say about Mozambique is it continues to be in a challenging environment from a security perspective, you all saw that.
But what I will also tell you is that we received our development plan here recently. Frankly, in just over a year, a staggering achievement when you consider the complexity of getting that development plan, technically, commercially, and otherwise approved with quite a complex partnership and through the government.
So really good news, from the perspective of the development plan approved. Some uncertainties with security and uncertainties and frankly with the recent Anadarko announcement in terms of just what does that really mean in terms of common facilities, remember this area is a shared area where two facilities are being constructed jointly. So we remain on track for the investment decision this year that we communicated externally, but we need to work through some of those uncertainties in the coming months.
In PNG, high performing base, you've all seen it continues to exceed expectations 20% to 30%, higher than the original design basis. And you know, we have plans to double the capacity in PNG by the mid-2020s, again, progress per the milestones.
The message I want to leave you with continuously today is we are executing on the commitments that we said we would execute on. This gas agreement led by Total was signed back here in early April to enable the Papua feed to start. We're waiting on the P’nyang piece of that, which is the third train in the Papua development. And we're hoping to engage the new government here on that in the next few weeks.
So again, great progress getting the gas agreement in place. We have some uncertainty to deal with from the political dimension. But at the same time, the P’nyang resource, which underpins the third train continues to get better, as does the other exploration activity that we have progressing in PNG. So I'm very excited about the potential of PNG. And I'm confident that we will deliver on the milestones that we've committed externally.
Brazil, high quality acreage position 2.3 million acres, our plans are to start exploring that with wells next year and then aggressively thereafter. Many of you know in addition to the exploration potential, we are in partnership with Equinor who are leading the development of the Carcará field. That is also on schedule and I will tell you we have been able to leverage a significant amount of the learnings from Guyana bring those into the Carcará development to reduce cycle time, change the design of the FPSO with a very, very cooperative partner and government to do that.

从二叠纪开始,我们有望在2024年前每天运送百万桶石油。我们相信我们的创新发展计划是关键。我们将继续看到并实现我们为自己设定的里程碑。

在莫桑比克,潜力区域最多可达8列火车,4000万吨。你看到的前两列火车,我们说我们会在2025年之前启动。我对莫桑比克的看法是,从安全角度来看,它仍然处于一个充满挑战的环境中,你们都看到了。

但我还要告诉你的是,我们最近在这里收到了我们的发展计划。坦率地说,在一年多的时间里,当你考虑到通过相当复杂的合作关系和通过政府获得该技术,商业和其他方面的开发计划的复杂性时,这是一个惊人的成就。

从批准的发展计划的角度来看,这真是个好消息。安全性和不确定性存在一些不确定性,坦率地说,最近阿纳达科就公共设施的真正含义发表了公告,请记住这个区域是共同建造两个设施的共享区域。因此,我们在今年的外部沟通中做出了投资决策,但我们需要在未来几个月内解决其中的一些不确定因素。

在巴布亚新几内亚,高绩效基地,你们都看到它继续超过预期20%至30%,高于原设计基础。你知道,我们计划到2020年中期将巴布亚新几内亚的产能翻一番,这也是每个里程碑的进展。

我今天要留给你的信息是,我们正在履行我们所说的将要执行的承诺。道达尔领导的这份天然气协议于4月初在这里签署,以启动巴布亚饲料。我们正在等待P'nyang的一块,这是巴布亚发展的第三列火车。而且我们希望在未来几周内与新政府就此展开合作。

因此,在达成天然气协议方面取得了很大进展。从政治层面来看,我们有一些不确定性。但与此同时,支撑第三列火车的P'nyang资源继续变得更好,我们在巴布亚新几内亚进行的其他勘探活动也是如此。所以我对PNG的潜力感到非常兴奋。而且我相信我们将实现我们在外部承诺的里程碑。

巴西,高质量的种植面积230万英亩,我们的计划是开始探索明年的井,然后积极探索。除了探索潜力之外,你们中的许多人都知道,我们与Equinor合作,他们正在领导Carcará油田的开发。这也是按计划进行的,我将告诉你,我们已经能够利用圭亚那的大量知识将这些进入Carcará开发项目以缩短周期时间,通过非常非常合作的合作伙伴和政府改变FPSO的设计要做到这一点。

And then finally, on Guyana, we're going to spend a lot of time on that today. So I won't dwell on it on this slide.
I did say that this was 50%. The other 50% of this earnings potential that you see over on the left side, frankly, comes from many things. First and foremost, I always wanted to remind myself and everybody else that we have a significant base business excluding those growth opportunities that generates tremendous value every single day and to extract maximum value and maximum earnings in cash is clearly important that we make that the most efficient we can, the most reliable we can and the safest we can. And I feel good about where we're at on managing the base. There are a whole list of other opportunities that are not on that top five, smaller projects, smaller developments, that equally will contribute.
And then finally, and as discussed extensively, I think with all of you, in the recent Investor Day, we have ramped up our upstream divestment plans and executing on those divestment plans, which so far are exactly on the track we said we would be on are important to delivering that earnings outlook.
So the chart on the left is simply there for reference. As a reminder, it is not a target, it's an outcome of executing to what we said we would do, it was built using a 2017 Brent, $60 flat real basis, and obviously, will vary as prices vary. But as I said before, our plans are robust across the cycles. This is a view of the $60 case, and a view of what it will look like when we execute on those major growth opportunities I mentioned.
So with that, let me start a little bit of a transition into Guyana and give you a deep dive. First thing I'd like to say, the way I characterize Guyana, it really is a result of technology driven exploration, and frankly, great integrated capabilities across multiple disciplines. It's a remarkable and unprecedented success story.
So what I'd like to do is start with a summary of where we're at today, just so you have the full picture, then take you through a little bit of the history, up to today's status and provide some perspective on what we think lies ahead.
So, summary of where we are today to get started, the little chart down on the bottom shows you the resource growth that we've seen in the Stabroek Block. I mean staggering by any accounts. Just look at the numbers, the current resource base is estimated at 5.5 billion barrels. That does not include some recent discoveries that we just made. We've had an 87% exploration success rate, 87%. 13 of the 15 wells were discoveries.
For calibration, the average success rate in a frontier area is 10%. This well is a frontier area. I'll show you why in a minute, arguably, as it grows, it's the longer frontier, the 10% versus 87%, phenomenal. The other thing is it's not just one play; we've unlocked many different plays outside of the original lives of play. So it's very exciting.
And the other very exciting thing is, we're not just exploring, in parallel with exploring, we are developing. What was phenomenal is on the lies of discovery well, one well, we started the development. And that is what you're going to see and is what enabled us to bring this thing on so fast. But let me take a little bit of a step back in history and I'll flip through these next set pretty quickly. Just to give you a feel for how did we get to where we are today, how do you get to an 87% success rate and this type of opportunity so quickly?

最后,在圭亚那,今天我们将花费大量时间。所以我不会在这张幻灯片上详述。

我确实说这是50%。坦率地说,你在左侧看到的另外50%的盈利潜力来自很多方面。首先,我一直想提醒自己和其他所有人,我们有一个重要的基础业务,不包括那些每天产生巨大价值的增长机会,并以现金提取最大价值和最大收益,这显然是我们最大限度地做到这一点的重要因素。我们能够有效,最可靠,最安全。我对我们管理基地的方式感到很满意。有一大堆其他机会没有列入前五,较小的项目,较小的开发项目,这些机会同样会有所贡献。

最后,正如广泛讨论的那样,我认为,在最近的投资者日,我们已经加大了上游撤资计划并执行了那些撤资计划,到目前为止,这些计划正好在轨道上我们说我们会对于实现盈利前景非常重要。

所以左边的图表仅供参考。提醒一下,它不是目标,它是执行我们所说的我们会做的结果,它是使用2017年布伦特,60美元的实际基础建造的,显然,随着价格的变化而变化。但正如我之前所说,我们的计划在各个周期都很稳健。这是对60美元案例的看法,以及当我们执行我提到的那些重大增长机会时的情况。

那么,让我开始一点点过渡到圭亚那,给你一个深刻的潜力。我想说的第一件事就是我对圭亚那的描述,它实际上是技术驱动探索的结果,坦率地说,它是跨多个学科的强大综合能力。这是一个非凡而前所未有的成功故事。

所以我想做的是从今天的总结开始,只是让你全面了解,然后带你了解一段历史,直到今天的状态,并提供一些关于什么的观点我们认为未来。

因此,总结我们今天开始的地方,底部的小图表显示了我们在Stabroek区块中看到的资源增长情况。我的意思是任何说法都令人咋舌。只看数字,目前的资源基数估计为55亿桶。这不包括我们刚刚发现的一些最新发现。我们的勘探成功率为87%,87%。 15口井中有13口是发现。

对于校准,边界区域的平均成功率为10%。这口井是一个前沿区域。我会告诉你为什么在一分钟内,可以说,随着它的增长,这是更长的前沿,10%对87%,非凡。另一件事是它不仅仅是一场比赛;我们在游戏的原始生活之外解锁了许多不同的戏剧。所以非常令人兴奋。

另一个非常令人兴奋的事情是,我们不仅仅是在探索的同时探索,我们正在开发。什么是惊人的发现谎言,一个好,我们开始发展。这就是你将要看到的东西,也是我们能够如此快速地推动这件事的原因。但是让我在历史上稍稍退一步,我会很快翻阅下一组。只是为了让您了解我们如何到达今天的目标,您如何快速达到87%的成功率和这种机会?

Well, the reality is it wasn't quick. It was quick in the Exxon Mobil history, but in the oil and gas timeframe, just for perspective, as you think about these type of plays, it's really all about frankly staying power patience and having the capacity to stay the course over a long time with hypotheses that you believe in. And very few companies can stay the course with that belief and stay at it like we can. And not allowing what others couldn't see to deter us and we'll come on to that story a bit later on.
History has always said the best place to look for oil is where there is oil, many of you have heard this, it is an absolute truism. The best place to look for oil is where there is oil. We knew that the Guyana Suriname Basin had an active production system. Many of you probably don't know but there is heavy oil field producing today in Suriname that started back in the 60s.
So that implied even back then, when people were out there drilling, that implied if you had a heavy oilfield, the way the geological depositional environment works in that part of the world, it's likely that that was sourced from somewhere offshore. So this is back in the 60s. So keep that in your mind, so there's a hypothesis out there even back in the 60s, and there is a heavy oilfield after multiple years, by the way of drilling before that point.
Many companies including ours, look to test this hypothesis between the 60s leading up to the late 90s staggering numbers. Before the lies of discovery, 61 wells were drilled in the basin with no discoveries, 61 wells with no discoveries in total, including onshore. So that we're drilling onshore and offshore, 320 wells were drilled in this basin. Some of these had oil shows. You'd be glad to know I didn't show all 320 on the map to show you the dots that is just a sampling. And that timeframe says 2009, but that dot goes way back into the 70s and the 60s. In fact SO drilled a dry hole in 1978 in Suriname.
So, point being, this is a sobering picture back to my point about 10% risk in high risk frontier plays. People had spent a lot of money. It had taken decades, hundreds of wells were drilled hypothesis was those oil, but nobody had yet found exactly where is it at.
Undeterred, and particularly in the 1990s, we did pretty extensive rework on our regional studies. Bringing together our very best geoscientists people with a unique understanding and this is really important of the tectonic history and the basin genetics in Guyana. And our geoscientists didn't lose faith. This business is all about taking risk, being committed, not losing faith. They persisted with this hypothesis and they said two things. The first you heard me say it, this base, based on the regional study based on everything that was done, based on the shows, based on the heavy oil should have world class source rock potential.
The second thing they said is they believe the type of hydrocarbon traps, our stratigraphic traps. And that based on our understanding of these type of depositional environments worldwide those type of stratigraphic traps should exist in this basin.

嗯,现实是它不快。埃克森美孚的历史很快,但在石油和天然气的时间框架内,只是为了观点,当你想到这些类型的戏剧时,它真的是坦率地保持力量耐心并且有能力长时间坚持下去我相信你的假设。很少有公司可以坚持这个信念并坚持下去。并且不允许别人看不到的东西阻止我们,我们稍后会谈到这个故事。

历史总是说寻找石油的最佳地点就是有石油的地方,很多人都听过这个,这是绝对不言自明的。寻找石油的最佳地点是有石油的地方。我们知道圭亚那圭亚那盆地有一个积极的生产系统。你们当中许多人可能都不知道,但今天苏里南的重油现在可以追溯到60年代。

因此,即便在那时,当人们在那里钻井时,这意味着如果你有一个重油田,地质沉积环境在世界这个地区运作的方式,这可能是来自海外的某个地方。所以这可以追溯到60年代。因此,请记住这一点,因此即使在60年代就有一个假设,并且在多年之后有一个重油田,在此之前进行钻探。

包括我们在内的许多公司都试图在60年代之间测试这一假设,直到90年代后期的数字令人咋舌。在发现之前,在盆地钻了61口井没有发现,61口井没有发现,包括在岸。因此,我们在陆上和海上钻井,在这个盆地钻了320口井。其中一些有油画。你很高兴知道我没有在地图上显示所有320,以显示只是一个采样的点。那段时间表示2009年,但这个点可以追溯到70年代和60年代。事实上,SO于1978年在苏里南钻了一个干洞。

所以,重点是,这是一个令人警醒的画面回到我的观点,高风险边境游戏的风险约为10%。人们花了很多钱。几十年来,钻了数百口井假设是那些石油,但是没有人发现它到底在哪里。

没有被吓倒,特别是在20世纪90年代,我们对我们的区域研究做了相当广泛的改造。汇集了我们最优秀的地球科学家,他们具有独特的理解,这对圭亚那的构造历史和盆地遗传非常重要。我们的地球科学家并没有失去信心。这项业务完全是为了承担风险,承诺而不是失去信心。他们坚持这个假设,他们说了两件事。第一个你听到我这么说的话,这个基础是基于所做的一切的区域研究,基于显示,基于重油应该具有世界级的源岩潜力。

他们说的第二件事是他们相信碳氢化合物陷阱的类型,我们的地层陷阱。基于我们对全球这些类型的沉积环境的理解,这个盆地中应该存在这种类型的地层圈闭。

The thing to be aware of is strat traps are inherently risky, the hard to identify, and they're leaky. So it was still a very risky proposition, even if you found one did the oil stay in it. Hypothesis was accepted, the block was acquired, we then collected 2D and 3D out into the 2013 period. And I want to show you what we saw from this data.
Okay. So we generated this seismic view, 3D seismic view back in the 2012, 2013, 2014 timeframe. And to simplify it, if you just look at the red circle and then the bright green colors inside it. So inside that red circle, the green colors are potential reservoirs. And the black colors are potential seals. What was really intriguing without getting into a science discussion, but what was really intriguing was that the way these green colors stopped at this dashed white line. Meaning that there was a transition going on, if you see above and below this green just goes on.
This inferred to us that there was oil in those green colors. And it was transitioning down through an oil water contact. So it confirmed our hypothesis that we thought that this was an oil bearing structure and this was a strat trap. I will say this exact same image, exact same image is the image that Shell our partner walked away from Shell left in 2014, thought this was too risky. We then at 100%, we wanted to take on some partners to manage risk, as well. We sent this exact image out to a data room and had over 20 people the names you would expect. Come look at this. Only two companies put a proposal on the table, only two.
So it's back to this point of patience, persistence, unique understanding. So 2 out of 22, saw something that looked like what we thought was there and thought it was worth taking the risk. And of course, shortly thereafter, we welcomed Hess and we welcomed CNOOC into the partnership.
So we had a geological model, we had an idea of how it could work, but we still undrilled it. And we start take the risk. And even at that point, the geologic risk was 22% going in. But we drilled a well, we made a major discovery, and it gave us a taste of what this block could hold. So we had proven this hypothesis after all these years, and found where we thought at least one part of this source rock was located.
We quickly moved after that and acquired this massive seismic survey, the biggest at the time in industry. And we did that really for two reasons. First of all, we wanted to see how much running room there was way beyond just that initial lines of discovery. And secondly, we wanted to make sure that the data we had was properly calibrated, and we could make rapid development decisions, without too much risk. It was a really important operation. I won't go through the details suffice to say, this was the most complex survey ever shot in the industry by anybody. And the data that it's provided us has frankly been key to unlocking the rest of the Guyana story.
So now we had the challenge of a new survey confirming essentially that we could expand and there were more prospects beyond Liza. But we also wanted to get going and make some money and get Liza on stream as fast as we could. So the key challenge as you looked at it was balancing exploration and development at the same time.

需要注意的是,策略陷阱具有内在风险,难以识别,而且它们是漏洞。所以它仍然是一个非常冒险的主张,即使你发现一个人留下了油。假设被接受,块被收购,然后我们收集2D和3D到2013年期间。我想向您展示我们从这些数据中看到的内容。

好的。因此,我们在2012年,2013年,2014年的时间框架内生成了这个地震视图,3D地震视图。为了简化它,如果你只看红色圆圈,然后看到它内部的亮绿色。因此,在红色圆圈内,绿色是潜在的水库。黑色是潜在的密封。在没有进入科学讨论的情况下真正有趣的是,但真正令人感兴趣的是这些绿色的颜色停留在这条虚线的白线上。意味着正在进行转换,如果你看到上面和下面这个绿色只是继续。

这向我们推断出这些绿色中有油。它正在通过油水接触过渡。所以它证实了我们的假设,我们认为这是一个含油结构,这是一个策略陷阱。我会说这个完全相同的图像,完全相同的图像是我们的合作伙伴壳牌于2014年离开壳牌离开的图像,认为这太冒险了。然后,我们100%,我们想要一些合作伙伴来管理风险。我们将这张精确的图像发送到数据室,并为超过20人提供了您期望的名称。快来看看吧。只有两家公司提出了一项提案,只有两项。

所以它回到了耐心,坚持,独特理解的这一点。所以22个中的2个,看到的东西看起来像我们认为的那样,并认为值得承担风险。当然,不久之后,我们欢迎赫斯,我们欢迎中海油参与合作。

所以我们有一个地质模型,我们知道它是如何工作的,但我们仍然没有钻研它。我们开始承担风险。即使在那一点上,地质风险仍然是22%。但是我们钻了一口井,我们做了一个重大的发现,它让我们体会了这块可以容纳的东西。所以这些年来我们已经证明了这个假设,并且发现了我们认为这个源岩的至少一部分所在的位置。

之后我们迅速采取行动,并获得了当时业界规模最大的地震调查。我们这样做真的有两个原因。首先,我们希望看到有多少跑步空间不仅仅是最初的发现线。其次,我们希望确保我们所拥有的数据得到适当校准,并且我们可以做出快速的开发决策,而不会有太大的风险。这是一项非常重要的行动。我不会详细说明,这是任何人在业内拍摄的最复杂的调查。它为我们提供的数据坦率地说是解开圭亚那其他故事的关键。

所以现在我们接受了一项新调查的挑战,基本上证实我们可以扩大,并且除了丽莎之外还有更多的前景。但我们也想开始赚钱并尽可能快地让Liza上线。因此,您所看到的关键挑战是同时平衡勘探和开发。

How do you manage that risk? How do you manage your execution capacity? How do you manage your partnership? How do you manage your government? How do you manage all those things so that we can quickly move on and establish the full extent of this opportunity, but at the same time get some oil on and create some value.
And again, remember only companies with our scale back to that competitive advantage of scale and technology. Only companies like Exxon Mobil could have done this at this scale and this pace.
So I want to spend just a minute flipping through what's happened between 2016, which was the year after we discovered Liza and now from an exploration side. And then I want to come back it’s a little awkward and talk about what's happened on a development side.
So in 2016, we discovered Liza deep so that was the first step out, you see it there on the chart. In 2017 we discovered Payara, Snook and Turbot. And we had essentially developed a new core area around that Turbot area that you can see south and east of Liza in 2017.
In 2018, we further tested different plays, tested more outlying areas and discovered Pacora, Longtail, Pluma, Ranger and Hammerhead. These are all significant, multi-hundred million type discoveries in their own right. All growing this whole concept, but again, not necessarily the same play, not necessarily the same characteristics of what we saw in Liza. And then this year alone, you've seen the announcements, we discovered Haimara and Tilapia and Yellowtail and truly validated that area that you can see all those dots, as for sure, a fourth or fifth hub beyond the first three that we have talked about before.
So we've had a wonderful run of success in a very short time, opening up opportunities in multiple plays, and giving us huge optionality for future developments. So with this confidence in exploration, success, which basically means we understood the subsurface very deeply, and our data was extremely well calibrated, it provided us the confidence to start pursuing developments in parallel.
So let me start by talking about the most mature of those developments, which is Liza Phase 1. A simple message on this slide, if you just glance at the slide, we will bring on Liza Phase 1 in less than five years from discovery to first oil. It's a long time in our industry, since that's been done, I won't say it's never been done. But it's a long, long time, since anything like that has been achieved.
So it is a staggering achievement, you can see that the industry average, and this is today is nine years, nine years between discovery and bringing it on stream for deepwater, FPSO, floating production and storage type development. So we are half the industry average. And I'm very confident we will achieve that.
If I take it from where do we made the investment decision, it's less than three years, we have never done that. And I'll talk about why here in a minute. But this is from a value creation perspective, decreasing the cycle time between when you discover something, and you bring it on, is ultimately the key to value creation. And this is a textbook example of that. So what do we believe are the things that have enabled this rapid pace of development.

你如何管理这种风险?你如何管理你的执行能力?你如何管理你的伙伴关系?你如何管理你的政府?你如何管理所有这些事情,以便我们能够快速前进并建立这个机会的全部范围,但同时获得一些石油并创造一些价值。

再次,请记住只有规模和技术的竞争优势的公司。只有埃克森美孚这样的公司能够以这种规模和速度实现这一目标。

因此,我想花一点时间浏览2016年之间发生的事情,这是我们发现Liza之后的一年,现在是探索方面。然后我想回来它有点尴尬,并谈谈发展方面发生了什么。

所以在2016年,我们发现Liza很深,所以这是第一步,你在图表上看到它。 2017年,我们发现了Payara,Snook和Turbot。我们基本上在Turbot地区开发了一个新的核心区域,您可以在2017年看到Liza的南部和东部。

在2018年,我们进一步测试了不同的游戏,测试了更多的边远地区,并发现了Pacora,Longtail,Pluma,Ranger和Hammerhead。这些都是重要的,数亿种类型的发现本身。所有这些概念都在增长,但同样不一定是相同的游戏,不一定与我们在丽莎看到的相同。然后仅在今年,你已经看到了这些消息,我们发现了Haimara和Tilapia以及Yellowtail并真正验证了那个区域,你可以看到所有这些点,当然,除了我们谈过的前三个之外的第四或第五个枢纽关于之前。

因此,我们在很短的时间内获得了巨大的成功,为多个游戏开辟了机会,并为我们未来的发展提供了巨大的选择。因此,有了探索,成功的信心,这基本上意味着我们非常深刻地理解了地下,我们的数据得到了极好的校准,它使我们有信心开始并行开发。

因此,让我先谈谈最成熟的那些发展,即Liza第1阶段。这张幻灯片上的简单信息,如果您只是看一下幻灯片,我们将在不到五年的时间内将Liza第1阶段从发现带到第一油。在我们的行业中已经有很长一段时间了,因为已经完成了,我不会说它从未完成过。但这是很长很长一段时间,因为这样的事情已经实现了。

所以这是一个惊人的成就,你可以看到行业的平均水平,今天是九年,九年之间的发现,并为深水,FPSO,浮动生产和存储类型开发投入使用。所以我们是行业平均水平的一半。而且我非常有信心我们会实现这一目标。

如果我从哪里做出投资决定,那不到三年,我们从未这样做过。我会在一分钟内谈到为什么。但这是从价值创造的角度来看,减少你发现某些东西之间的循环时间,并且你带来它,最终是价值创造的关键。这是教科书的一个例子。那么我们认为能够实现这种快速发展的因素是什么呢?

Very quickly, first and foremost, the relationships with our partners, and the relationship with the regulator and the government is key. Everybody has to be aligned to the same goal, and you have to do things that enable this pace in a way that satisfies standards of good oilfield practice around the world that is a wonderful partnership. It's a partnership with the country of Guyana and it's enabled us to move at a very, very rapid pace.
The second thing is our global development capability. And that covers the whole gambit from drilling through our contracting strategy, through our supply chain integration, I will tell you, because many of my peers have asked me about this, this contracting strategy, the way that we sourced the boat, the way that we pre-invested in the hole, the way that we moved rapidly to industry standard specs, the industry has talked about using standard specs for years, find it very hard to do it, we did it on this boat makes a big, big difference.
So with that as a backdrop, let me just brief you update on the other two. So this one I've mentioned, it's almost ready to go, I'll show you a picture in closing, just to give you the current state. The second boat Liza Phase 2. That was FID, May of this year, it's a 220 kbd boat. So it's much bigger than the first one you see there, which is the 120. Obviously, we're leveraging all the learnings, we're using the exact same set of contractors.
So this is the ultimate, once you've done it once you replicate, you just scale up and you replicate. And the cost advantages, the time advantages, the efficiency advantages are absolutely enormous. And that's what we're seeing. We're on schedule to start this up in middle of 2022.
And then the third what I would call project in that same general play, that's probably not precisely accurate, but in that same general play area, Payara, is what we're calling it, it'll be the same size as Liza Phase 2, you're seeing a range there, early engineering is progressing and our plans are to get that development plan into the government here in the coming months with a view to make a final investment decision on that boat by the end of this year, and start it up in 2023. And even more so the one to two, two to three is basically exactly the same. So we don't have to redo feed and redo many of the things that take time. So very excited.
And just before I shift, the chart on the left simply reminds us of what we showed at the Investor Day in 2018, which was the red diamonds, and where we are today. And simply that shows the goal to get to 750 by 2025, the three boats that I've talked about the lead up to the diamond, and then I'm going to quickly talk about future developments here, on the next slide.
So let me shift to those future developments. Basically, what we're seeing as we've moved from that Liza area, and you saw all the different successes we've had to the Southeast, to the west, we continue to encounter significant hydrocarbons, significant resource. You saw the numbers, and we didn't even announce the last three. So we're not getting any surprises in terms of finding significant resource as we expand out beyond the Liza area.

很快,首先,与合作伙伴的关系以及与监管机构和政府的关系是关键。每个人都必须与同一目标保持一致,你必须做的事情能够满足世界各地良好的油田实践标准,这是一种美妙的伙伴关系。这是与圭亚那国家的合作伙伴关系,它使我们能够以非常非常快的速度前进。

第二件事是我们的全球发展能力。通过我们的合同策略,通过我们的供应链整合,这涵盖了整个开局,我会告诉你,因为我的许多同行都问我这个,这个合同策略,我们采购船的方式,方式我们预先投资了这个漏洞,我们迅速采用行业标准规格的方式,业界多年来一直在讨论使用标准规格,发现很难做到这一点,我们在这艘船上做了很大的差异。

因此,以此为背景,让我简要介绍一下其他两个的更新。所以我已经提到了这个,它已经准备好了,我会在结束时向你展示一张图片,只是为了给你当前的状态。第二艘船Liza第2阶段。那是FID,今年5月,这是一艘220 kbd的船。所以它比你看到的第一个大得多,即120.显然,我们正在利用所有的知识,我们正在使用完全相同的承包商。

所以这是最终的,一旦你复制完成它,你只需按比例放大并复制。而成本优势,时间优势,效率优势绝对是巨大的。这就是我们所看到的。我们正按计划在2022年中期开始这项工作。

然后第三个我称之为同一个普通游戏的项目,可能并不准确,但在同一个普通游戏区域,Payara,就是我们所说的,它与Liza Phase 2的大小相同你在那里看到了一个范围,早期工程正在进行中,我们的计划是在未来几个月将这个发展计划纳入政府,以便在今年年底前对该船做出最终投资决定,并且在2023年启动它。甚至更多,一到二,二到三基本完全相同。因此,我们不必重做Feed并重做许多需要时间的事情。非常兴奋。

就在我转移之前,左边的图表只是提醒我们在2018年的投资者日,即红色钻石,以及我们今天所处的位置。简单来说,这显示了到2025年达到750的目标,我已经谈过钻石的三条船,然后我将在下一张幻灯片中快速谈谈未来的发展。

那么让我转向那些未来的发展。基本上,当我们从Liza地区搬走时,我们看到了什么,你看到了我们对东南部所有不同的成功,在西部,我们继续遇到重要的碳氢化合物,重要的资源。你看到了这些数字,我们甚至都没有公布最后三个。因此,当我们扩展到Liza地区以外时,我们在寻找重要资源方面没有任何惊喜。

What is varying, is some parameters that are normal. Things like pressures, things like precise gas oil ratios, things like the hydrocarbon characteristics, and all of those things require us to do very detailed concept selection planning to make sure that those next two projects are fully optimized for what we expect them to deliver. That work is ongoing and we have not yet defined exactly on which fields those boats will be on, but it will likely be on a combination of the areas that I've highlighted on the chart, i.e. one almost certainly in this Turbot, Longtail, Yellowtail area, and then one in either the Hammerhead area or an area that we are currently testing.
But we remain confident in our goal to get to 750 and we remain confident to FID those next two major developments in the 2021, 2022 time frame and start them up by 2025, as we’ve discussed before. Over on the right, the simple message is, despite all this, it's still early in the exploration phase. It's still early. We have more than 30 leads that we've identified that we have yet to drill. And we will have four rigs operating with the fourth coming in by the end of this year.
Two roughly working on exploration, the other two working on development, recognizing that there are time clocks and other factors that need to be considered. So very exciting, very early, multiple projects, all on track, all delivering to our expectations.
Wrapping it up back on technology and people, I won't go through in the spirit of time, all of the things that are on this slide. Suffice to say that in addition to that fundamental advantage on the subsurface and how we integrate that. Some of the things we're doing digitally are phenomenal. On one of the rigs, you can see it there the noble Bob Douglas, again, when you're in this business. We went slip to slip, which means basically drilling a section of the hole, completely automated, using digital technology here late last year.
First in the industry to do it has the potential to save lots of time, but very importantly, to take people out of harms’ way from that rig floor, so hugely important step. But we are advancing digital in all aspects of this development, all aspects, all of these boats are equipped with fiber optic connectivity. So that all be connected through a digital hub. There'll be digital twins, both in Georgetown and Houston. Our people will be able to work completely differently than they worked before. And we expect to see a significant prize from reliability improvement as a result of all of that.
I won't go through the other ones on there, our high performance computing we've talked about in these audiences before. But it really is what enables us to rapidly create potential scenarios for development and be confident that we can rapidly assimilate new data and new scenarios and do sort of scenario based approaches to our development decisions, and quickly understand what could be no regrets. And we have not found that point yet. But that's the technology that enables that.

变化的是一些正常的参数。诸如压力,精确的瓦斯油比率,碳氢化合物特性以及所有这些因素之类的事情要求我们进行非常详细的概念选择计划,以确保接下来的两个项目完全针对我们期望的项目进行优化。这项工作正在进行中,我们还没有准确确定这些船将在哪些领域上,但它可能是我在图表上突出显示的区域的组合,即几乎肯定在这个大菱鲆,Longtail,黄尾区,然后是Hammerhead区域或我们目前正在测试的区域。

但我们对达到750的目标仍然充满信心,我们仍然有信心在2021年,2022年的时间框架中对下两个主要开发项目进行FID,并在2025年之前启动它们,正如我们之前所讨论的那样。在右边,简单的信息是,尽管如此,它还处于探索阶段的早期阶段。现在还早。我们已经确定了30多个我们尚未钻取的潜在客户。我们将有四个钻井平台在第四个钻井平台上运行,到今年年底。

两个大致致力于探索,另外两个致力于开发,认识到有时钟和其他因素需要考虑。非常令人兴奋,非常早,多个项目都在轨道上,都达到了我们的期望。

把它重新放在技术和人员身上,我不会在时间精神上完成这一幻灯片上的所有事情。我只想说,除了地下的基本优势以及我们如何整合它。我们以数字方式做的一些事情是惊人的。在其中一个钻井平台上,当你从事这项业务时,你可以再次看到高贵的鲍勃道格拉斯。我们滑倒了,这意味着基本上在去年年底使用数字技术钻完一段完全自动化的洞。

业内首先有可能节省大量时间,但非常重要的是,要让人们摆脱钻井平台的伤害,这是非常重要的一步。但我们正在推动数字化在这一发展的各个方面,所有方面,所有这些船都配备了光纤连接。所有这些都通过数字中心连接。在乔治敦和休斯敦都会有数字双胞胎。我们的员工将能够以与以前完全不同的方式工作。我们期望看到所有这些因素带来的可靠性提升的重要奖励。

我不会在那里看到其他的,我们之前在这些受众中谈到过的高性能计算。但它确实使我们能够快速创建潜在的开发方案,并确信我们可以快速吸收新数据和新方案,并为我们的开发决策做一些基于场景的方法,并快速了解什么是无悔。我们还没有发现这一点。但这就是实现这一目标的技术。

The rest of this I think is pretty clear. It isn't just technology, technology in and of itself is not the game. The game is how do you apply that technology and how do you integrate that technology with all the capabilities you've got. And I think this example is the best example that we have today of where we are doing that to an extraordinary degree.
Okay, so that is Guyana. Very exciting, real time. And, as it says here amongst the most valuable plays in the industry, but what I'm doing here is I'm now bringing you back to the upstream. I started with the upstream I’ll bring you back to the upstream.
So we started with talking about the investment case, driven by the fundamentals. We then talked about the five unique competitive advantages that Exxon Mobil are bringing to the best set of opportunities we've had since the Exxon Mobil merger to create industry leading value, industry leading returns, industry leading cash flow.
This chart attempts to graphically show you that. And the simple message on this is, if you think about, a lot of people want to hear us talk about what is your breakeven Brent cost to deliver a 10% return. In essence, that's what I'm showing you here. So if you look at Guyana, that's about $40 a barrel and that's for the whole of Guyana. The individual projects within that are better, Liza-1 was lower than that, et cetera, et cetera. So that's when you take the whole development into account.
So basically, it says $40 is that cost of supply 10 that we all have a keen interest in talking about. The other deepwater opportunities, you can see Brazil on the chart, this is a WoodMac chart over on the left. It's of WoodMac’s FID tracker, which are those projects that we’ll FID between now, essentially now and 2023. And it gives you a sense for where the breakevens are. You really should just look at the left axis, the X-axis. The bubble size is an indication of value.
So it's a little confusing, but look at the X-axis. And it'll give you a sense, just look at the size of the bubble as value and what the breakeven 10 is for those things. You can see our Brazil, Carcará also has a very low breakeven 10 right at $40 a barrel. And remember, that is only Carcará that does not include any success from any of our exploration activity, which is all ahead of us. That's why the bubble is a little smaller than the Guyana bubble.
And then just for completeness, I wanted to put on here the remainder of those large growth opportunities that you saw when we talk about at the start to calibrate with you my point that they're extremely resilient at low prices. And they're also resilient, by the way as price stretches. But the Permian, again, on average, $35. Brazil, I've talked about $40. And then the two LNG projects, we tend to put on MBTU basis, but $5 a barrel, they're roughly the same.
So all of these new opportunities, firstly, deliver extraordinary value. Secondly, are very resilient, have a low cost of supply compete on the left side of our portfolio of opportunities, on just about all the metrics that we care, we care to look at.

其余的我认为很清楚。它不仅仅是技术,技术本身并不是游戏。游戏是如何应用该技术的,以及如何将该技术与您拥有的所有功能相结合。我认为这个例子是我们今天所做的最好的例子。

好的,那就是圭亚那。非常令人兴奋,实时。而且,正如它在这里所说的业内最有价值的游戏中所说的那样,但我现在正在做的是我现在将你带回上游。我从上游开始,我会带你回到上游。

因此,我们开始讨论由基本面驱动的投资案例。然后,我们谈到了埃克森美孚为埃克森美孚合并以来创造行业领先价值,行业领先回报,行业领先现金流的最佳机会所带来的五大独特竞争优势。

此图表试图以图形方式向您显示。关于这一点的简单信息是,如果你想到的话,很多人都想听我们谈谈你的盈亏平衡成本是什么才能带来10%的回报。从本质上讲,这就是我在这里向您展示的内容。因此,如果你看看圭亚那,那大约每桶40美元,这就是整个圭亚那。其中的个别项目更好,Liza-1低于其他项目,等等。所以当你考虑整个开发时。

所以基本上,它说40美元是供应成本10,我们都非常有兴趣谈论。其他深水机会,你可以在图表上看到巴西,这是左边的WoodMac图表。这是WoodMac的FID追踪器,这是我们现在之间,现在基本上和2023年之间的FID追踪项目。它让您了解失败者的位置。你真的应该只看左轴,X轴。泡沫大小是价值的指标。

所以它有点令人困惑,但看看X轴。它会给你一种感觉,只要把泡泡的大小看作是价值,那么盈亏平衡10就是那些东西。你可以看到我们的巴西,Carcará也有一个非常低的盈亏平衡10,每桶40美元。请记住,只有Carcará在我们的任何勘探活动中都没有取得任何成功,这一切都在我们面前。这就是泡沫比圭亚那泡沫小一点的原因。

然后,为了完整起见,我想在这里谈谈你在开始时谈到的那些巨大的增长机会的其余部分,与你一起校准我的观点,即它们在低价时具有极强的弹性。而且,随着价格的延续,它们也具有弹性。但是,二叠纪平均价格为35美元。巴西,我谈到了40美元。然后是两个液化天然气项目,我们倾向于以MBTU为基础,但每桶5美元,它们大致相同。

因此,所有这些新机遇首先都能带来非凡的价值。其次,我们非常有弹性,在我们的机会组合左侧具有较低的供应成本竞争,几乎所有关注的指标,我们都在关注。

The one thing I would say before we close is, we have been very deliberate about these choices. Very, very deliberate, we pick them up at a great time, we took advantage of the low end of the cycle, Darren likes to use the words we leaned in when others were leaning out. And really that lean in and commit to the cycle is what enabled us to pick up these world class opportunities that have these type of returns. And we are very well positioned to execute on this.
Fundamentally, we've got them now it's about executing them. And we have the greatest execution company in the world. And I feel very good, recognizing the uncertainties that we talked about earlier to execute on these plans.
So, in summary the key messages from the upstream that I would like to leave you all with. Firstly, long-term fundamentals underpin our growth plans, I think that's pretty clear. Secondly, our unique competitive advantages enable long-term value creation. Thirdly, upstream earnings growth potential is supported not only by those five outstanding new developments, but also by the existing base. And lastly, as we just talked about our portfolio was attractive throughout the commodity price cycles.
It's pleasure to be here with you all today, I will tell you in the picture you can see, that's the Liza Destiny. So that's that first boat I talked about. That was taken a few weeks ago. All that scaffolding and stuff that you can see is now off and in fact, I leave for Singapore this Thursday -- this Saturday, the first lady of Guyana and myself amongst others will launch and cresset [ph] the Liza Destiny with the normal bottle, it should be a very, very special event. And shortly thereafter, the boat will set sail it takes about 60 days to get to Guyana.
And we'll have some work to do when it gets there in the field, it's got to pick up a lot of flow lines, do some infield commissioning, that kind of stuff. And we are on track to start up in early 2020. If everything goes perfectly weather blah, blah, blah, there's a chance that it could be even a little earlier, but we are on track for early 2020.
So again, let me close by saying a very special thanks to JPMorgan, and all of your teams for this extraordinary event. For everyone that's in the room, for the many that are listening, we really appreciate this opportunity and I'd be happy to spend the next however long flow once on the Q&A. Thank you.

在我们结束之前我会说的一件事是,我们一直非常慎重地考虑这些选择。非常非常谨慎,我们在很短的时间内接受它们,我们利用了周期的低端,Darren喜欢使用我们在其他人倾斜时倾斜的话。而真正倾向于并致力于循环的因素使我们能够获得具有这些类型回报的世界级机会。我们非常有能力执行此操作。

从根本上说,我们现在已经掌握了它们的执行方式。我们拥有世界上最大的执行公司。我感觉非常好,认识到我们之前谈到的不确定性,以执行这些计划。

所以,总结来自上游的关键信息,我想留给大家。首先,长期基本面是我们增长计划的基础,我认为这很清楚。其次,我们独特的竞争优势可以实现长期价值创造。第三,上游盈利增长潜力不仅得到了五个优秀新开发项目的支持,也得到了现有基础的支持。最后,正如我们刚刚谈到的那样,我们的投资组合在整个商品价格周期中都具有吸引力。

很高兴今天能和你们在一起,我会在你能看到的图片中告诉你,这就是Liza Destiny。这就是我谈到的第一艘船。几个星期前就采取了这种做法。所有那些脚手架和你能看到的东西现在已经关闭了,事实上,我本周四前往新加坡 - 本周六,圭亚那的第一夫人和我自己将在正常的瓶子里发射和摧毁Liza Destiny ,这应该是一个非常非常特殊的事件。不久之后,这艘船将起航大约需要60天才能抵达圭亚那。

当它到达现场时我们还有一些工作要做,它需要选择很多流水线,进行一些内场调试,这类东西。而且我们有望在2020年初启动。如果一切顺利,天气,等等,等等,它甚至可能更早一点,但我们有望在2020年初。

让我再次特别感谢摩根大通以及所有团队参加这次非凡的活动。对于那些在房间里的每个人,对于那些正在倾听的人来说,我们非常感谢这个机会,我很乐意在Q&A上花一次长时间的流程。谢谢。

问答环节

Thank you very much, Liam. We really appreciate this overview and very interesting, deep dive on Guyana. We will take a few questions from the audience, but I'll just kick it off with a couple myself first, if it's possible to click back two slides.

非常感谢,利亚姆。 我们非常感谢圭亚那的这一概述和非常有趣的深度探索。 我们将从观众那里得到一些问题,但如果可以点击两张幻灯片,我会先与一对夫妇开始。

利亚姆马龙

I think it is.

我觉得是这样的。

Phil Gresh

Yes, so this slide. Just looking at the size of the bubble there for Guyana, and even Brazil, as you've highlighted, really it hasn't been that long that you've been discovering resources in Guyana. So, how should we think about where we are in this life cycle of discoveries, we've talked about future phases four, and five, et cetera. But how do you think about the -- in three years from now what this resource base could look like, what would be the size of that bubble, three to five years from now? And ultimately, like, where do you want to get from a production plateau standpoint? Is it too early to even be talking about that or just generally how are you thinking about it today?

是的,所以这张幻灯片。 只要看看圭亚那,甚至巴西的泡沫大小,正如你所强调的那样,你在圭亚那发现资源的时间并不长。 那么,我们应该如何思考我们在这个发现生命周期中的位置,我们已经讨论了未来的第四阶段和第五阶段等等。 但是你如何看待 - 从现在开始的三年内这个资源基础可能是什么样的,那个泡沫的大小,从现在起三到五年会是什么? 最终,就像,你想从生产高原的立场获得什么? 现在谈论这件事还为时尚早,或者一般来说你今天怎么想呢?

利亚姆马龙

Well, I think it is a little early, Phil, to talk about specifically, what those numbers would be, I mean, I think the thing to remember is, it's early. And a good comparison -- I'm not sure if I'm talking at the two mics here at the same time. But a good comparison might be and if you go back, and you think about Angola, and the success we had in Angola, Block 15, which is still producing healthily today was about 2.5 billion barrels. So we're already at 5.5 billion here, without those new discoveries.
So, the potential is even greater and I think, you know, there are several plays that we have not tested yet. We have 30 leads ahead of us. And you can envisage a much brighter even story, then we have today. But honestly, right now, we're focused on getting revenue going, which is very important for the country, delivering on what we’ve said we’d do for the partnership, and continuing to optimize the exploration periods that we've got on the contracts. But, thus far early, encouraging, and the potential remains, I would say greater than what we've even seen thus far.

嗯,我认为现在有点早,菲尔,具体谈谈,这些数字是什么,我的意思是,我认为要记住的是,它是早期的。和一个很好的比较 - 我不确定我是否同时在这两个麦克风说话。但是一个很好的比较可能是,如果你回去,你想到安哥拉,以及我们在安哥拉取得的成功,今天仍然健康生产的15区块约为25亿桶。所以我们这里已经达到了55亿,没有那些新的发现。

所以,潜力更大,我想,你知道,有几部剧我们尚未测试过。我们有30个领先优势。你可以设想一个更加光明的故事,然后我们今天就拥有。但老实说,现在,我们专注于增加收入,这对国家非常重要,实现我们所说的我们为合作伙伴关系做的事情,并继续优化我们已经拥有的勘探期在合同上。但是,到目前为止,我所说的迄今为止早期,令人鼓舞和潜在的遗骸仍然比我们所看到的要大。

Phil Gresh

Sure. Okay. The second question, just going back, you talked about the big five developments, and you highlighted some potential risk areas for a few of them. Obviously, there has been some changing dynamics in a couple areas in Mozambique, PNG, even in Guyana, maybe you could just elaborate a bit more on what you're seeing on that front? And perhaps if you had to -- if possible, maybe rank order where you see the greater risks or the lesser risks of things have been happening recently.

当然。 好的。 第二个问题,回过头来,你谈到了五大发展,你强调了其中一些潜在的风险领域。 显然,莫桑比克,巴布亚新几内亚的几个地区,即使在圭亚那也有一些变化的动态,也许你可以详细说明你在这方面看到的内容? 也许如果你必须 - 如果可能的话,也许排名顺序,你看到更大的风险或最近发生的事情的风险较小。

利亚姆马龙

I think the biggest risk is when we're dealing with a personal safety risk. The security risk in Mozambique that’s obviously something that regardless of the opportunity. We won't put our people into an environment that we can't keep them safe.
So that the evolution of what appears to be a very difficult security problem in a very, very localized area, but it happens to be close to our facility that you've all seen publicized. I would say, Phil, I mean, it's not to say it's not manageable, it is manageable. That's our job, and we're working very closely with the government to manage that. But that’s a risk that there's not a workaround unless we can address it.
The other risks, I would say, a risk we've dealt with in many countries around the world. Over many, many years, none of them are particularly unique. I think the key thing to think about is developing the right partnerships with the country. So, for Guyana, I really don't think about it as necessarily what's the risk with party A or party B, we really do approach it as a partnership with Guyana. And I think if you have that mindset, first of all, your stakeholders are broad enough that it's not any one particular individual or any one particular party. But fundamentally, what you're doing is for the benefit of the country.
So I think thinking about it as a partnership with the country is really the key, and lining up that value proposition. And once you do that, then we find that dealing with the normal things that come up, the normal challenges about different things, whether it's contract awards, or people's opinions, or the procurement processes, or development plan, approval pace, or all those things that we manage, are much easier to manage. So that's generally how I would answer it.
But fundamentally, we believe we can execute on the plans, we communicate it. And there will be bumps along the way. And we will deal with those bumps. And the only one of significance in terms of we have to resolve it simply because there's no other option is the security issue in Mozambique.

我认为最大的风险是当我们处理个人安全风险时。莫桑比克的安全风险显然无论机会如何。我们不会把我们的人民置于一个我们无法保证他们安全的环境中。

因此,在一个非常非常局部的区域中,似乎是一个非常困难的安全问题的演变,但它恰好接近我们所见过的设施。我会说,菲尔,我的意思是,这并不是说它不易管理,而且可以管理。这是我们的工作,我们正与政府密切合作来管理这一点。但除非我们能够解决这个问题,否则这是一种风险。

我想说,其他风险是我们在世界上许多国家都面临的风险。在很多年里,它们都不是特别独特。我认为要考虑的关键是与国家建立正确的伙伴关系。因此,对于圭亚那来说,我真的不认为它必然是甲方或乙方的风险,我们确实将其视为与圭亚那的合作关系。我认为,如果你有这种心态,首先,你的利益相关者足够广泛,不是任何一个人或任何一个特定的政党。但从根本上说,你所做的是为了国家的利益。

因此,我认为将其视为与国家的伙伴关系确实是关键,并排除了这一价值主张。一旦你这样做,我们发现处理正常的事情,不同事物的正常挑战,无论是合同授予,人们的意见,采购流程,发展计划,审批速度,还是所有这些我们管理的事情更容易管理。所以我通常会如何回答它。

但从根本上说,我们相信我们可以执行计划,我们会进行沟通。一路上会有颠簸。我们将处理这些颠簸。而我们必须解决这个问题的唯一重要因素莫过于莫桑比克的安全问题,因为没有其他选择。

Phil Gresh

Sure, that makes sense. Another area I wanted to touch on, I guess, from a risk perspective, would be around capital spending. Obviously, the upstream business, Exxon Mobil raised the capital spending budget at last year's Analysts Day for new activity. And there are some other areas that you've highlighted even recently, Vaca Muerta some additional new activity that you're progressing. We had dinner last night with, Andy. And we're also talking a bit about contract availability, things like that on especially in the LNG side. So I'm curious if you take all of these pieces of activity based acceleration or inflation risk, and then maybe labor inflation and other factors that could drive a higher spending budget. How comfortable are you from an upstream side around the budget?

当然,这是有道理的。 我想从风险的角度来看,我想谈的另一个领域是资本支出。 显而易见,上游业务埃克森美孚在去年的分析师日筹集了新的活动资本支出预算。 还有一些其他领域,即使是最近你已经突出显示,Vaca Muerta还有一些你正在进行的新活动。 我们昨晚和安迪共进晚餐。 我们还谈到合同可用性,特别是LNG方面的情况。 因此,我很好奇你是否采取了所有这些基于加速或通胀风险的活动,然后是劳动通胀和其他可能推动更高支出预算的因素。 您对预算周围的上游有多舒适?

利亚姆马龙

Well, again, I think it's a milestone driven process. First and foremost, Phil, and sometimes, things change, and we have to adjust those milestones. And there might be some near-term variability. But over the long-term, we're very confident in those budgets X things like new acquisitions and stuff like that. But, I think our whole approach to cast capital discipline, it's not really target driven, as we've talked about. It's really driven by the best opportunities, first and foremost. And are they accretive to our portfolio. And do they increase the value of the portfolio.
And then, once we've answered that question, it's are they competitive against what others are doing against our alternatives. And is that the best use of our capital. So first and foremost for our company, the first use of our capital is investing in accretive opportunities. And we will continue to look at all the accretive opportunities, not by geography, not by play type, but by value.
Once we've done that, as you know, we'll focus on the dividend, and then we’ll focus on the balance sheet. And then lastly, if there's money left, we'll focus on share redistributions, but it really is a discussion around not so much. Obviously, we are trying to manage the long-term value creation with the near-term necessities of the business and that causes us to set CapEx targets and to try and manage those CapEx targets.
But the other piece of it that Andy mentioned is very valid is to many degrees it set by capacity as well. How much work can you do. Whether it's the industry contractors, and what we've seen is a pretty dramatic consolidation of those over the last several years, particularly in the LNG business.
The numbers I think went from 11 or 12, major LNG contractors 10 years ago to six today. And they have lots of work, right? Lots of work in the Gulf lots of work in other parts of the world. So I would tell you as much as anything what limits our ability to do things is actually the capacity that's available in the contracting industry and internally. But we don't let a number limit the opportunity space that's available to us if it's the right thing to do.

好吧,我认为这是一个里程碑式的过程。首先,菲尔,有时候,事情会发生变化,我们必须调整这些里程碑。并且可能存在一些近期变化。但从长远来看,我们对这些预算非常有信心,比如新收购等等。但是,正如我们所讨论的那样,我认为我们采用的是整个投资纪律的方法,而不是真正的目标驱动。它首先是由最好的机会驱动的。它们是否会增加我们的产品组合。它们是否会增加投资组合的价值。

然后,一旦我们回答了这个问题,那就是他们与其他人对我们的替代方案所做的事情竞争。这是我们资本的最佳用途。首先,对我们公司而言,首次使用我们的资本就是投资于增值机会。我们将继续关注所有增加的机会,而不是地理位置,不是游戏类型,而是价值。

一旦我们完成了这项工作,如您所知,我们将专注于股息,然后我们将专注于资产负债表。最后,如果剩下的钱,我们将专注于共享再分配,但它实际上是一个讨论,而不是。显然,我们正试图通过业务的近期必需品来管理长期价值创造,这使我们设定了资本支出目标并尝试管理这些资本支出目标。

但安迪提到的另一部分非常有效,在很大程度上也是由容量决定的。你能做多少工作?无论是行业承包商,还是我们所看到的是过去几年中非常引人注目的整合,特别是在液化天然气业务方面。

我认为10年前的主要液化天然气承包商从11个或12个到今天的6个。他们有很多工作,对吧?海湾地区有很多工作在世界其他地方开展很多工作。因此,我会尽可能地告诉你,限制我们做事能力的任何事情实际上是承包行业和内部可用的能力。但是,如果这是正确的事情,我们不会让一个数字限制我们可用的机会空间。

Phil Gresh

Okay. I'm going to ask one more, and then I'll see if the audience has any questions, but I did want to address a comment you made about the reorganization of the business that happened not too long ago and give you an opportunity to maybe elaborate on the objective of that and what you're seeing in terms of early days of the returns of that reorganization?

好的。 我将再问一次,然后我会看看观众是否有任何问题,但我确实想要解决你对不久前发生的业务重组的评论,并给你机会 或许详细阐述了这个目标以及你在重组回归的早期阶段看到了什么?

利亚姆马龙

Good question, Phil. Thank you. On the reorganization, many of you know that we reorganized here effective 1st of April. And this was the first major reorganization since the Exxon Mobil merger. We were designed along in the upstream a very functional structure. We had an exploration company, a development company, a production company. And I would say in simple terms, ownership and accountability for the opportunity moved through the life cycle.
So there was a lot of internal handoffs, there was very deep functional capability, but a lot of handoffs, which in today's world of speed and data and the dynamic nature of the portfolio perhaps wasn't given us exactly the speed and efficiency and agility right across the value chain we wanted. But, it brought great strengths and it was very good at the time for what we wanted it to do.
So we fundamentally reorganized around three things. First and foremost, to help us execute this great portfolio. Secondly, around this whole speed, agility, simplicity. And then thirdly, to really bring a deep focus to three things. One, this whole concept of being the best dynamic portfolio manager and for all the reasons we talked about whether it's bringing new things in, whether it's the divestment story, whether it's managing the base.
Today, we're in a world of abundance that appears and we are seeing more opportunity than we've seen in a long time. So we have to be extremely focused and extremely good. And it has to be a core competence around dynamic portfolio management. So that whole upstream business development company, that's their job working with the rest of the business. The oil and gas company that I run was organized into five global value chains, deepwater, unconventional, conventional, heavy oil and LNG.
And back to what I said, it really leveraging scale and integration to a huge degree. Again, we were not integrated and I think being fully integrated end-to-end those two things. First of all, it changes the capability and competency of your people. Because business acumen becomes a very, very important component of how they think and what they do, in addition to their normal technical and commercial skills.
But secondly, it allows you to see opportunities, the whole way through that value chain. And to the extent you were leaving money on the table because you weren't participating. It gives you a much better view of that and a choice as to whether you want to or not. So that's really important. So -- and the profit and loss of the entire upstream is in that business. And then, the final piece and back to competitive advantages is, we want to maintain functional excellence.
Our previous organization was structured around functional excellence. This puts the responsibility and accountability for functional excellence in the third company, which is called our integrated solutions company. So the role of the integrated solutions company is to ensure that we have the right capabilities, that they're deployed to the right problems, and that our processes and systems are constantly being updated to be the best in the industry. That's what that company does. And all those three come together to create more value than they could individually.

好问题,菲尔。谢谢。关于重组,很多人都知道我们在4月1日重组了这里。这是自埃克森美孚合并以来的首次重大重组。我们在上游设计了一个非常实用的结构。我们有一家勘探公司,一家开发公司,一家生产公司。我想简单地说,机会的所有权和责任感贯穿整个生命周期。

所以有很多内部切换,有很深的功能,但是很多切换,在今天的速度和数据世界以及组合的动态性质可能没有给我们准确的速度,效率和敏捷性正好在我们想要的价值链上。但是,它带来了很大的优势,当时它非常适合我们想做的事情。

所以我们从根本上重组了三件事。首先,帮助我们执行这个伟大的投资组合。其次,围绕这整个速度,敏捷性,简洁性。然后,第三,真正把重点放在三件事上。其中一个是作为最好的动态投资组合经理的整个概念,并且出于所有原因,我们谈到了它是否带来新事物,是否是撤资故事,是否是管理基础。

今天,我们正处于一个充满世界的世界,我们看到的机会比我们在很长一段时间里所看到的更多。所以我们必须非常专注并且非常好。它必须是围绕动态投资组合管理的核心竞争力。所以整个上游业务开发公司,这是他们的工作与其他业务。我经营的石油和天然气公司组成了五个全球价值链,深水,非常规,传统,重油和液化天然气。

回到我所说的,它确实在很大程度上利用了规模和集成。同样,我们没有整合,我认为完全整合端到端这两件事。首先,它改变了人们的能力和能力。因为除了正常的技术和商业技能之外,商业敏锐度成为他们思考和做事的非常重要的组成部分。

但其次,它允许您在整个价值链中看到机会。而且你在桌子上留下钱是因为你没有参加。它为您提供了更好的视图,并可以选择是否要。所以这非常重要。所以 - 整个上游的盈利和亏损就在那个行业。然后,最后一块并回到竞争优势,我们希望保持功能卓越。

我们以前的组织围绕功能卓越而构建。这为第三家公司(称为我们的综合解决方案公司)提供了卓越功能的责任和义务。因此,集成解决方案公司的作用是确保我们拥有正确的功能,将其部署到正确的问题中,并确保我们的流程和系统不断更新,以成为业内最佳的。这就是那家公司所做的。所有这三个人聚在一起创造的价值超出了个人的价值。

So it's two months in, two and half. What I'm seeing is very exciting; all of the elements of why we did it are very evident. There's lots going on, on the portfolio side, the ability for me to see my LNG business cradle the grave, not just the upstream piece, the upstream, the shipping, the trading, the marketing, the financing, and have someone accountable for all of that is very different than we had before. So I'm pretty excited about it.

所以这是两个月,两个半月。 我所看到的是非常令人兴奋的; 我们为什么这么做的所有要素都非常明显。 在投资组合方面,有很多事情可以让我看到我的液化天然气业务摇篮坟墓,而不仅仅是上游部分,上游,航运,交易,营销,融资,还有人对所有人负责 这与我们以前非常不同。 所以我很兴奋。

Phil Gresh

Great. So we have maybe five minutes if we have a question or two, go ahead.

非常好。 所以如果我们有一两个问题,我们可能需要五分钟,继续。

身份不明的分析师

You mentioned that some uncertainty when you talked about Papua New Guinea, can you elaborate it?

你在谈到巴布亚新几内亚时提到了一些不确定性,你能详细说明一下吗?

Phil Gresh

The question was about uncertainty around Papua New Guinea.

问题是关于巴布亚新几内亚的不确定性。

利亚姆马龙

The only uncertainty and nothing to suggest there's any issue, is we have the gas agreement approved, here on Papua and we’re moving forward, we're in the process of trying to get the P’nyang piece. So that's important to landing on the final concept as to the number of trains. And just with the government change, the pace at which we've been able to get the P’nyang agreement signed has been impacted by that change. That's all.
So we have planned to go into feed, here shortly, and it may take us a little longer to get that agreement. And it's really just a question of the new players. And, getting them in place and getting them up to speed.

唯一的不确定性并没有任何迹象表明存在任何问题,我们已经批准了天然气协议,在巴布亚,我们正在向前推进,我们正在努力获得P'nyang的一块。 因此,关于列车数量的最终概念是非常重要的。 而且随着政府的变化,我们能够获得签署P'nyang协议的速度受到了这一变化的影响。 就这样。

所以我们很快就计划进入饲料阶段,我们可能需要更长时间才能达成协议。 这真的只是新玩家的问题。 而且,让他们到位并让他们加快速度。

Phil Gresh

We have no other questions from the audience. So I'll ask one more, it's going to be a shorter term one, but Neil told me it was okay. So in the interest of increased disclosure around shorter term dynamics is a public opportunity to talk about how things are looking in trends in the second quarter. Is there anything you'd be able to share with us about the upstream side of the business, based on what you're seeing right now?

我们没有其他观众提问。 所以我会问一个,这将是一个短期的,但尼尔告诉我它没关系。 因此,为了增加对短期动态的披露,公众有机会讨论第二季度的趋势。 根据您现在所看到的情况,您是否可以与我们分享有关业务上游方面的信息?

利亚姆马龙

Yes, I think a few things I would say, I mean, first and foremost, I would Phil, take us back to the fundamentals, we plan on a long-term basis, you saw those charts that we talked about today, our plans over the long-term are very healthy, they generate strong returns, and they generate strong returns over those price cycles. So I think it's really important, when we talk quarter-to-quarter that we put it in the context of it is a long-term business. And the growth plans that we've talked about are multi-year growth plans. That said, we also recognize that, we are in a cyclical commodity business. And that requires us to have a long-term view just by its definition.
But as we said before, and we've seen these cycles, when you're in a cyclical commodity business, with that long-term view you still need to be cognizant of the business cycle in the short-term. So that's how I would characterize it. So as an example of that, if we look at market conditions and what we're seeing in the first half of the year, there are several factors that could impact the second quarter. These are not I would say things that happen routinely occur, but I think it's worth mentioning them in this call.
During our first quarter earnings call, we discussed that we expected lower gas demand in Europe. That's normal in the second quarter, as the weather gets warmer, this is not new and we've seen that every year for the last four years. And we've seen a consistent pattern of around 200 kbd type impact. I don't know what the precise number will be this year. But as you would expect with seasonal demand, it impacts prices.
We also see seasonal demand in the U.S. to different degrees, also impacting gas prices with lower relative demand in the second quarter relative to the first quarter. So as a consequence of that, Europe and U.S. prices are creating a downward pressure on our gas realizations. And the exact magnitude of that it's early in the quarter to tell, but I think you would see that.
Additionally, I think when people think about our LNG business, most of it being liquid linked. And you would expect to see pretty much that moving in line with liquids, but most of our LNG contracts are lagging contracts. They’re pricing out three, four or five months ago. So it's just a timing effect, but you might not see the full effect of what you saw happening on the Brent price directly on the LNG sales. But that's something that quarter-to-quarter normalizes, but in a particular quarter you're seeing prices that were agreed back probably in the fourth quarter of 2018.
And then the last thing to mention and again it's normal, I would say, but we are in maintenance season. So you should expect without getting in into specific assets. You should expect that a number of our major assets have been going under planned maintenance during the second quarter and into the third quarter and that will have an impact on volumes.

是的,我想我要说的一些事情,我的意思是,首先,我要菲尔,把我们带回基础,我们长期计划,你看到我们今天谈到的那些图表,我们的计划从长远来看,它们非常健康,它们可以产生强劲的回报,并且在这些价格周期中产生强劲的回报。所以我认为这非常重要,当我们按季度讨论时,我们将其置于其背景下是一项长期业务。我们谈到的增长计划是多年增长计划。也就是说,我们也认识到,我们处于周期性的商品业务中。这要求我们只根据其定义来制定长远的观点。

但正如我们之前所说的,我们已经看到了这些周期,当你处于周期性商品业务时,从长远来看,你仍然需要在短期内认识到商业周期。这就是我如何描述它。因此,作为一个例子,如果我们看一下市场状况以及我们在今年上半年所看到的情况,有几个因素可能影响第二季度。这些不是我会说经常发生的事情,但我认为在这次电话会议中值得一提。

在我们第一季度的财报电话会议上,我们讨论了我们预计欧洲天然气需求下降。这在第二季度是正常的,随着天气变暖,这不是新的,我们在过去的四年中每年都看到这一点。我们已经看到了大约200 kbd类型影响的一致模式。我不知道今年的确切数字是多少。但正如您所期望的季节性需求,它会影响价格。

我们也看到美国的季节性需求受到不同程度的影响,同时也影响了天然气价格,第二季度的相对需求相对于第一季度相对较低。因此,欧洲和美国的价格正在对我们的天然气实现产生下行压力。而且这个季度早期的确切幅度可以说明,但我想你会看到。

此外,我认为当人们考虑我们的液化天然气业务时,大部分都是与液体相关的。而且你会发现几乎与液体一致,但我们的大部分液化天然气合约都是滞后的合约。他们在三,四,五个月前定价。所以这只是一个时间效应,但你可能看不到你所看到的布伦特价格直接对液化天然气销售产生的影响。但这是季度与季度正常化的情况,但在特定季度,您看到的价格可能在2018年第四季度得到回应。

然后最后一件事情,我会说,这是正常的,但我们正处于维修季节。所以你应该期待不进入特定资产。您应该期望我们的一些主要资产在第二季度和第三季度一直在进行计划维护,这将对数量产生影响。

Phil Gresh

Great. And just to clarify, these are all upstream comments.

非常好。 只是为了澄清,这些都是上游评论。

利亚姆马龙

Yes, these are all upstream comments. Thank you.

是的,这些都是上游评论。 谢谢。

Phil Gresh

Okay. I think we'll stop it there if there are no other questions. So thank you again so much for taking the time today. Great presentation on deep dive in Guyana and we really appreciate you being here.

好的。 如果没有其他问题,我想我们会停在那里。 非常感谢你今天抽出时间。 关于圭亚那深潜的精彩演讲,我们非常感谢你来到这里。

利亚姆马龙

Thank you.

谢谢。

Phil Gresh

Thank you.

谢谢。

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