AbbVie Inc.(ABBV) 首席执行官 Rick Gonzalez 收购 Allergan 电话会议 (成绩单)

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年06月26日 · 80 次阅读

AbbVie Inc. (NYSE:ABBV) Acquisition of Allergan Plc M&A Conference Call June 25, 2019 8:30 AM ET

AbbVie Inc.(纽约证券交易所股票代码:[ABBV])收购Allergan Plc并购电话会议2019年6月25日美国东部时间上午8:30

公司参与者

Liz Shea - VP, IR
Rick Gonzalez - Chairman and CEO
Rob Michael - SVP & CFO
Michael Severino - Vice Chairman and President
Laura Schumacher - Vice Chairman, External Affairs, CLO and Corporate Secretary
Bill Chase - EVP of Finance and Administration
Henry Gosebruch - EVP, Chief Strategy Officer

  • Liz Shea - IR副总裁
  • Rick Gonzalez - 董事长兼首席执行官
  • Rob Michael - 高级副总裁兼首席财务官
  • Michael Severino - 副主席兼总裁
  • 劳拉舒马赫 - 对外事务副主席,CLO和公司秘书
  • Bill Chase - 财务和行政执行副总裁
  • Henry Gosebruch - 首席战略官,首席战略官

电话会议参与者

Jason Gerberry - Bank of America
Navin Jacob - UBS
Josh Schimmer - Evercore ISI
Terence Flynn - Goldman Sachs
Geoffrey Porges - SVB Leerink
Zhu Shen Ng - Morgan Stanley
Vamil Divan - Credit Suisse
Tim Anderson - Wolfe Research
Andrew Baum - CItigroup
Greg Gilbert - SunTrust

  • Jason Gerberry - 美国银行
  • Navin Jacob - UBS
  • Josh Schimmer - Evercore ISI
  • Terence Flynn - 高盛
  • Geoffrey Porges - SVB Leerink
  • 朱申吴 - 摩根士丹利
  • Vamil Divan - 瑞士信贷
  • 蒂姆安德森 - 沃尔夫研究
  • Andrew Baum - CItigroup
  • Greg Gilbert - SunTrust

会议主持员

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AbbVie Investor and Analyst Conference Call. All participants will be able to listen-only until the question-and-answer portion of this call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded by AbbVie.
I would now like to introduce Ms. Liz Shea, Vice President of Investor Relations.

美好的一天,谢谢你的支持。 欢迎来到AbbVie投资者和分析师电话会议。 所有参与者都可以只收听此呼叫的问答部分。 [操作员说明]此呼叫由AbbVie记录。

我现在想介绍一下投资者关系副总裁Liz Shea女士。

Liz Shea

Good morning and thanks for joining us for the special conference call to discuss AbbVie's acquisition of Allergan, which we announced this morning. Joining me on the call today are Rick Gonzalez, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Rob Michael, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Joining us for the Q&A portion of the call are Michael Severino, Vice Chairman and President; Laura Schumacher, Vice Chairman, External Affairs, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary; Bill Chase, Executive Vice President of Finance and Administration; and Henry Gosebruch, Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer.
Rick will provide an overview of the strategic rationale for this acquisition and Rob will discuss the key financial aspects of the transaction. Following the prepared remarks, we'll take your questions.
Please be aware that while we will do our best to address all of your questions, because this transaction falls under Irish Takeover Rules, there are certain limitations to the information we can provide. Please note that we have also posted a slide presentation, which includes additional background on the transaction for your reference.
Before we get started, I remind you that some statements we make today may be considered forward-looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. AbbVie cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information about these risks and uncertainties is included in our 2018 annual report on Form 10-K, and our other SEC filings and the related set of slides posted on our website. AbbVie undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements except as required by law.
So with that, I'll now turn the call over to Rick.

早上好,感谢您参加特别电话会议,讨论AbbVie收购Allergan,我们今天上午宣布了这一消息。今天与我联系的是董事会主席兼首席执行官Rick Gonzalez;和Rob Michael,高级副总裁兼首席财务官。加入我们的问答部分是Michael Severino,副主席兼总裁; Laura Schumacher,对外事务副总裁,首席法务官兼公司秘书; Bill Chase,财务和行政执行副总裁;和执行副总裁,首席战略官Henry Gosebruch。

Rick将概述此次收购的战略基本原理,Rob将讨论交易的主要财务方面。在准备好的评论之后,我们将回答您的问题。

请注意,尽管我们会尽力解决您的所有问题,但由于此交易属于爱尔兰收购规则,因此我们可以提供的信息存在某些限制。请注意,我们还发布了幻灯片演示文稿,其中包含有关交易的其他背景信息供您参考。

在我们开始之前,我提醒您,我们今天发表的一些声明可能被视为1995年“私人证券诉讼改革法案”的前瞻性陈述.AbbVie警告说,这些前瞻性陈述可能会导致风险和不确定性实际结果与前瞻性陈述中的内容大不相同。有关这些风险和不确定性的其他信息包含在我们的2018年10-K表年度报告中,以及我们在其网站上发布的其他美国证券交易委员会文件和相关的幻灯片组。除法律要求外,AbbVie没有义务更新这些前瞻性陈述。

因此,我现在将电话转到Rick。

Rick Gonzalez

Thank you, Liz. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let me begin by saying how pleased I am to announce our acquisition of Allergan. This is a transformative transaction that provides important strategic benefits for both AbbVie and Allergan, while further advancing AbbVie's mission to be an innovation-driven, patient-focused biopharmaceutical company delivering a consistent stream of innovative new medicines.
The transaction significantly advances the strategy AbbVie embarked upon when we first became an independent company to reduce dependence on HUMIRA through the rapid expansion of our non-HUMIRA business, the AbbVie growth platform. The growth platform represents the future of AbbVie and it is delivering on its strategic mandate with critical launches and indication expansions across IMBRUVICA, VENCLEXTA, SKYRIZI, ORILISSA, and later this year Upadacitinib.
The acquisition of Allergan represents a rare and unique opportunity for AbbVie to accelerate the progress of the growth platform by adding highly valuable on-market assets with leadership positions across attractive growth segments. With today's announcement, AbbVie's growth platform will be put on a course to achieve immediate standalone scale with sales of more than $30 billion in 2020 and best-in-industry growth prospects.
This will have a profound impact on AbbVie's overall growth story, while addressing concerns about the Company's reliance on HUMIRA. And in the process, we will create the fourth largest global biopharmaceutical company with leadership positions in immunology, hematological oncology, medical aesthetics, neuroscience, women's health, eye care and virology.
Before I discuss the combined business, I'd like to address the question of why now. AbbVie has clearly delivered outstanding performance and we are confident our strategy is working, but we recognize our job is to continuously identify opportunities to maximize our growth, fortify our position and put the Company on the strongest possible footing.
Assets of the quality of Allergan are not always available and certainly not at this value. The opportunity to access these attractive durable franchises and immediately rescale on our growth platform, and at the same time, have ample HUMIRA cash flow to deleverage before the U.S. LOE, is an incredibly compelling opportunity, and one that we did not want to pass up.
Now, let's take a look at how the pieces of the combined company fit together. We remain well positioned to grow our strong leadership position in immunology with the recent launch of SKYRIZI, which is tracking significantly ahead of our expectations and the forthcoming approval of Upadacitinib for RA.
In their respective initial indications, both of these therapies have demonstrated across multiple clinical trials, superiority versus HUMIRA and other competitive offerings. And with the collective potential of these two therapies across more than a dozen indications each represent multibillion dollar peak sales potential.

谢谢你,利兹。大家早上好,谢谢你今天加入我们。首先让我说我很高兴宣布收购Allergan。这是一项变革性交易,为AbbVie和Allergan提供重要的战略利益,同时进一步推动AbbVie的使命,即成为一家以创新为导向,以患者为中心的生物制药公司,提供一致的创新药物。

该交易大大推进了AbbVie在我们成为一家独立公司时开始实施的战略,通过快速扩展我们的非HUMIRA业务AbbVie增长平台来减少对HUMIRA的依赖。这个增长平台代表了AbbVie的未来,它正在通过IMBRUVICA,VENCLEXTA,SKYRIZI,ORILISSA以及今年晚些时候Upadacitinib的关键发布和指示扩展来履行其战略任务。

收购Allergan为AbbVie提供了一个难得的独特机会,通过在具有吸引力的增长领域中增加领导地位的高价值市场资产来加速增长平台的进展。随着今天的宣布,AbbVie的增长平台将实现立即实现独立规模,2020年销售额超过300亿美元,行业内增长前景良好。

这将对AbbVie的整体增长故事产生深远影响,同时解决对公司依赖HUMIRA的担忧。在此过程中,我们将创建第四大全球生物制药公司,在免疫学,血液肿瘤学,医学美学,神经科学,女性健康,眼科护理和病毒学领域处于领先地位。

在我讨论合并后的业务之前,我想谈谈为什么现在这个问题。 AbbVie明显表现出色,我们有信心我们的战略正在发挥作用,但我们认识到我们的工作是不断发现机会,以最大化我们的增长,巩固我们的地位,并使公司处于最有力的基础。

Allergan质量的资产并不总是可用,当然也不是这个价值。有机会获得这些具有吸引力的持久特许经营权,并立即在我们的增长平台上重新调整规模,同时在美国LOE之前拥有足够的HUMIRA现金流去杠杆化,这是一个令人难以置信的令人难以置信的机会,而且我们不想放弃。

现在,我们来看看合并后公司的各个部分是如何组合在一起的。最近SKYRIZI的推出使我们在免疫学领域取得了强有力的领导地位,我们仍然处于有利地位,这一目标明显超出了我们的预期,并且即将获得Upadacitinib对RA的批准。

在他们各自的初步适应症中,这两种疗法已经在多个临床试验中得到证实,优于HUMIRA和其他竞争产品。由于这两种疗法的集体潜力超过了十几种适应症,每种疗法都代表着数十亿美元的峰值销售潜力。

Allergan's GI business adds to our already strong position in immunology and includes two leading medicines for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome. We’ll leverage our expertise and commercial scale in this area to drive strong performance in immunology, our collective sales will exceed $20 billion.
We have a leading hematological oncology portfolio that is expected to contribute more than $5 billion in revenue this year and growing at a robust rate. And as we continue to generate data that validates the utility of both IMBRUVICA and VENCLEXTA across a wide range of patient populations and cancer types, we expect this franchise to drive significant growth for many years to come.
Additionally, our innovative pipeline includes more than 20 active development programs for blood cancers and solid tumors, which we expect will strengthen our growing position in oncology. The acquisition of Allergan brings to AbbVie the world's leading medical aesthetics business.
With revenue of nearly $4.5 billion, this primarily cash pay business is growing high-single-digits and is anchored by very well-known brands including BOTOX cosmetics, the market leading neurotoxin; Juvederm, a portfolio of injectable dermal fillers; and CoolSculpting, an emerging body contour treatment.
With significant presence globally, supported by the largest sales and marketing effort in medical aesthetics and expected cadence of new indications and product launches over the next several years, we feel highly confident in the competitive position of this business. In addition, the medical aesthetics market remains highly underpenetrated with increasing interest and acceptability of aesthetic procedures and products globally. And increasing utilization within younger demographics, the medical aesthetic market has the potential to double by 2025, making this franchise extremely attractive and durable for AbbVie.
The acquisition of Allergan also brings with it significant neuroscience assets. Neuroscience is a core area of focus for AbbVie today and an area where we have been investing significantly in promising disease modifying pipeline programs to become a leader in the treatment of neurodegenerative conditions. With greater than $3 billion in combined revenues, Allergan brings us immediate scale and a large commercial presence in both virology and psychiatry.
Allergan's neuroscience franchise contains a number of flagship products including a comprehensive portfolio of treatments for migraine. This includes BOTOX Therapeutics for chronic occurrence and two late stage oral CGRPs that will also further growth potential. We will also be adding VRAYLAR to our portfolio, one of the fastest growing therapies for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder and the therapy we believe represents a clear blockbuster opportunity.
With this collection of products, along with Duodopa and our next generation ABBV-951 for advanced Parkinson's disease, as well as our pipeline of early stage development programs, we see neuroscience as an important area for long-term growth potential. Our new portfolio will also include several additional attractive franchises. The combined business includes a complementary portfolio of therapies in the area of women's health.

Allergan的GI业务增加了我们在免疫学方面的强势地位,包括两种用于治疗肠易激综合症的主要药物。我们将利用我们在该领域的专业知识和商业规模来推动免疫学方面的强劲表现,我们的集体销售额将超过200亿美元。

我们拥有领先的血液肿瘤学组合,预计今年将带来超过50亿美元的收入,并以强劲的速度增长。随着我们继续生成能够验证IMBRUVICA和VENCLEXTA在多种患者群体和癌症类型中的效用的数据,我们预计这一特许经营将在未来许多年内实现显着增长。

此外,我们的创新产品线包括20多个针对血癌和实体瘤的积极开发计划,我们期望这些计划将加强我们在肿瘤学领域不断增长的地位。收购Allergan为AbbVie带来了世界领先的医学美容业务。

收入近45亿美元,这个主要的现金支付业务正在以高个位数增长,并以非常知名的品牌为基础,包括市场领先的神经毒素BOTOX化妆品; Juvederm,一种可注射的皮肤填充剂组合;和CoolSculpting,一种新兴的身体轮廓治疗。

凭借在医疗美学方面最大的销售和营销努力以及未来几年新指标和产品发布的预期节奏,我们在全球拥有大量业务,我们对该业务的竞争地位充满信心。此外,随着全球美学程序和产品的兴趣和可接受性的增加,医学美学市场仍然高度渗透。在更年轻的人​​口统计数据中,医疗美容市场有望在2025年前翻一番,这使得这一特许经营对AbbVie极具吸引力和持久性。

收购Allergan还带来了重要的神经科学资产。神经科学是AbbVie今天关注的核心领域,也是我们在有希望改善疾病的管道计划方面投入巨资的领域,成为治疗神经退行性疾病的领导者。 Allergan的总收入超过30亿美元,为我们带来了即时规模和在病毒学和精神病学方面的大量商业存在。

Allergan的神经科学特许经营包含许多旗舰产品,包括针对偏头痛的全面治疗组合。这包括用于慢性发生的BOTOX Therapeutics和两种还具有进一步生长潜力的晚期口服CGRP。我们还将在我们的产品组合中添加VRAYLAR,这是精神分裂症和双相情感障碍发展最快的疗法之一,我们相信这种疗法是一个明显的重磅炸弹机会。

通过这些产品系列,以及Duodopa和我们用于治疗晚期帕金森病的下一代ABBV-951,以及我们的早期开发计划,我们将神经科学视为长期增长潜力的重要领域。我们的新产品组合还将包括几个额外的吸引力特许经营权。合并后的业务包括女性健康领域的补充疗法组合。

Allergan’s product includes the market leading oral contraceptive and their total women's health portfolio generates more than $800 million in revenue with mid-single-digit growth. AbbVie's Elagolix represents a multi-billion dollar growth opportunity with the recent launch of ORILISSA in endometriosis and we expect its submission of a regulatory application in uterine fibroids very soon. Together, we'll leverage our commercial scale to drive strong profitable growth for this franchise.
We'll also have a durable eye care franchise with approximately $2 billion in revenue and leadership in glaucoma and dry eye, as well as multiple mid and late-stage pipeline prospects. Our HCV franchise with expected sales of $3.3 billion this year remains an important business for AbbVie. Mavyret holds a leadership position in the large global HCV market. Our HCV business represents a durable and strong source of cash flows for many years to come.
And we have an attractive stable base portfolio, which includes a number of products that hold leadership positions in their respective areas. As I mentioned, the addition of Allergan's attractive franchises to AbbVie’s existing growth platform, immediately creates a very large and compelling growth engine with standalone scale. With revenue of more than $30 billion in 2020, we expect our growth platform to drive high-single-digit annual growth over the next decade.
Given the scale and growth prospects, we will have increased capacity to pursue the most promising and innovative science, which remains the core focus for AbbVie, and what makes the difference for the many patients we serve. The combination of AbbVie and Allergan will also unlock significant value for our shareholders. The transaction strengthens both companies by diversifying the sources of revenue and payer mix and adding new leadership positions in attractive markets.
Allergan's product lines will greatly benefit from access to AbbVie's geographic footprint. This combination also provides significant additional earnings in the period following the loss of HUMIRA exclusivity. The transaction also provides enhanced cash flow to support a strong and growing dividend. Cash flow from HUMIRA provides the ability to rapidly pay down debt, which we have committed to reduce by $15 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2021 with further deleveraging through 2023.
The revenue scale that Allergan brings to AbbVie will enable enhanced funding of our innovative R&D platform and provides ample resources for additional pipeline expansion. We'll also link Allergan's business with AbbVie's innovative discovery engine and early development capabilities to maximize R&D output.
The transaction also offers more than $2 billion in annual pre-tax synergies and cost savings in the third year post closing, through the elimination of redundant infrastructure and spending, while leaving key franchise funding levels untouched. And of course, the transaction delivers immediate robust financial benefit, with EPS accretion of 10% in the first full year of the combination, increasing to above 20% at peak and an ROIC that exceeds our cost of capital in year one and increasing in subsequent years.

Allergan的产品包括市场领先的口服避孕药,其女性健康组合总收入超过8亿美元,中等个位数增长。最近在子宫内膜异位症中推出了ORILISSA,AbbVie的Elagolix代表了数十亿美元的增长机会,我们预计很快就会在子宫肌瘤中提交监管申请。总之,我们将利用我们的商业规模为这一特许经营带来强劲的盈利增长。

我们还将拥有一个持久的眼保健专营权,在青光眼和干眼症方面拥有约20亿美元的收入和领导力,以及多个中期和后期管道前景。我们的HCV特许经营权预计今年的销售额为33亿美元,仍然是AbbVie的重要业务。 Mavyret在全球大型HCV市场中占据领导地位。我们的HCV业务在未来许多年内代表着持久而强大的现金流来源。

我们拥有极具吸引力的稳定基础投资组合,其中包括许多在各自领域占据领导地位的产品。正如我所提到的,Allergan对AbbVie现有的增长平台增加了具有吸引力的特许经营权,立即创造了一个非常大且引人注目的增长引擎,具有独立规模。由于2020年的收入超过300亿美元,我们预计未来十年我们的增长平台将实现高单位数的年增长率。

鉴于规模和增长前景,我们将提高追求最具潜力和创新科学的能力,这仍然是AbbVie的核心关注点,也是我们服务的众多患者的不同之处。 AbbVie和Allergan的合并也将为我们的股东带来巨大的价值。该交易通过多元化收入来源和付款人组合以及在有吸引力的市场中增加新的领导地位来加强两家公司。

Allergan的产品线将极大地受益于AbbVie的地理覆盖范围。此组合还在HUMIRA专营权丧失后的期间内提供了显着的额外收益。该交易还提供增强的现金流,以支持强劲和不断增长的股息。来自HUMIRA的现金流提供了快速偿还债务的能力,到2021年底我们承诺减少150亿至180亿美元,并在2023年进一步去杠杆化。

Allergan为AbbVie带来的收入规模将为我们创新的研发平台提供更多资金,并为额外的管道扩展提供充足的资源。我们还将Allergan的业务与AbbVie的创新发现引擎和早期开发能力联系起来,以最大限度地提高研发成果。

该交易还通过消除多余的基础设施和支出,在关闭后的第三年提供超过20亿美元的年度税前协同效应和成本节约,同时保持关键的特许经营资金水平不受影响。当然,该交易可带来直接强劲的经济效益,合并后的第一个全年每股盈利增长10%,高峰期增加至20%以上,第一年的ROIC超过我们的资本成本,随后增加年份。

Upon completion of the transaction, the Company will continue to be incorporated in Delaware and have principal executive offices in North Chicago, Illinois. I will serve as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and plan to continue in this capacity through the U.S. HUMIRA loss of exclusivity event in 2023. Our Board of Directors will include two Allergan board members including Brent Saunders.
In summary, this transformational transaction is strategically compelling for both companies, where AbbVie allows us to address the reliance on HUMIRA and sustain our focus on innovative science and the advancement of our industry leading pipeline, while driving strong growth. For Allergan, this transaction provides immediate R&D capabilities and global commercial scale to maximize the value of their attractive portfolio of on-market products. This is an extremely exciting day for AbbVie, for Allergan and for our combined shareholders. The transaction represents an opportunity to create significant value while putting us in an even stronger position to deliver sustainable long-term growth.
With that, I’ll turn the call over to Rob. Rob?

交易完成后,公司将继续在特拉华州注册成立,并在伊利诺伊州北芝加哥设有主要执行办公室。我将担任董事长兼首席执行官,并计划通过美国HUMIRA于2023年丧失排他性事件继续担任此职位。我们的董事会将包括两名Allergan董事会成员,包括Brent Saunders。

总而言之,这项转型交易对两家公司都具有战略意义,AbbVie让我们能够解决对HUMIRA的依赖,并继续专注于创新科学和推动行业领先的管道,同时推动强劲增长。对于Allergan,此交易提供即时研发能力和全球商业规模,以最大化其有吸引力的市场产品组合的价值。对于AbbVie,Allergan和我们的合并股东来说,这是一个非常激动人心的日子。此次交易提供了创造重要价值的机会,同时使我们处于更有利的地位,实现可持续的长期增长。

有了这个,我会把电话转给Rob。抢?

Rob Michael

Thanks, Rick. Let me begin by reiterating how pleased we are to announce this transaction. The acquisition of Allergan adds several attractive new growth platforms to AbbVie’s already strong portfolio and accelerates to point at which our growth platform reaches the scale necessary to stand on its own to fund the business.
The combination significantly enhances the profile of AbbVie’s business on both the top and bottom lines by diversifying our sources of revenue, bring the opportunity to deliver meaningful synergies through the elimination of redundant infrastructure and spending, and providing additional R&D funding capacity to support AbbVie’s innovative R&D engine.
Under the terms of the proposed transaction, AbbVie will acquire Allergan in its cash and stock transaction value at $188.24 per share based on AbbVie’s closing price on June 24th. Each Allergan share will be exchanged for cash of $120.30 at a fixed ratio of 0.866 shares of the Company.
With respect to financing, AbbVie will assume Allergan’s existing debt of approximately $23 billion and will fund the cash portion of the transaction with a mix of existing cash and new debt. We remain committed to a Baa2/BBB credit rating or better for the combined company and plan to reduce debt by $15 billion to $18 billion within three years of closing, further deleveraging through 2023.
We anticipate the transaction to close in the first quarter of 2020 subject to regulatory approvals, Allergan’s shareholder approval and other customary closing conditions. The transaction is extremely compelling from a financial perspective. We expect to deliver more than $2 billion in annual pre-tax synergies and other cost reductions within three years of completing the transaction through the reduction of duplicative infrastructure while leading funding levels to support our key growth franchises, oncology, immunology and medical aesthetics, untouched.
It is immediately accretive upon closing delivering 10% accretion above our first full year adjusted EPS and peaking at above 20%. It has a robust ROIC which exceeds the corporation’s cost of capital in the first year of combination. And as you know, AbbVie generates very robust cash flow which will be significantly enhanced by this acquisition. On a combined basis, the Company generated approximately $19 billion of operating cash flow in 2018. This cash flow will be used to reduce debt, support a growing dividend and pursue additional innovative mid to late stage pipeline assets.
Following the closing, we will commence the integration process which we view to be highly executable. Both companies have considerable experience with the integration of large complex transactions. As noted earlier, we expect the major growth franchises, immunology, oncology and medical aesthetics to be untouched by integration activities, allowing them to focus on maximizing new product launches and growth prospects.
In summary, we are very excited about today’s announcement. We believe this transaction is financially compelling for shareholders of both companies as it offers profound strategic benefits as well as significant and immediate accretion and an attractive return on invested capital. We believe these companies are stronger combined than apart, and we are excited to join with Allergan to create a diversified biopharmaceutical company well-positioned for sustainable growth.

谢谢,里克。首先,我要重申我们很高兴宣布这项交易。对Albgan的收购为AbbVie已经强大的投资组合增加了几个有吸引力的新增长平台,并加速了我们的增长平台达到了自己为企业提供资金所需的规模。

通过多元化收入来源,通过消除冗余基础设施和支出,提供额外的研发资金支持AbbVie的创新研发能力,这一组合极大地提升了AbbVie在最高和最低水平的业务形象。发动机。

根据拟议交易的条款,AbbVie将根据AbbVie于6月24日的收盘价以每股188.24美元的价格收购Allergan的现金和股票交易价值。每股Allergan股份将以本公司0.866股的固定比率兑换现金120.30美元。

在融资方面,AbbVie将承担Allergan现有约230亿美元的债务,并将以现有现金和新债务的组合为交易的现金部分提供资金。我们仍然致力于为合并后的公司提供Baa2 / BBB信用评级或更好的信用评级,并计划在收盘后的三年内将债务减少150亿至180亿美元,并在2023年进一步去杠杆化。

我们预计该交易将在2020年第一季度完成,但须经监管机构批准,Allergan的股东批准和其他惯例成交条件。从财务角度来看,这项交易非常引人注目。我们预计通过减少重复基础设施,在完成交易的三年内,每年的税前协同效应和其他成本降低超过20亿美元,同时领先资金水平,以支持我们的主要增长特许经营,肿瘤学,免疫学和医学美学,未受影响。

在我们首次全年调整后的每股收益率达到10%以上时,它会立即增加,并达到20%以上的峰值。它具有强大的ROIC,超过了公司组合第一年的资本成本。如您所知,AbbVie产生了非常强劲的现金流,这笔收购将大大增强。在合并的基础上,公司在2018年产生了约190亿美元的经营现金流。这笔现金流将用于减少债务,支持不断增长的股息,并追求创新的中后期管道资产。

在结束之后,我们将开始我们认为高度可执行的集成过程。两家公司在整合大型复杂交易方面拥有丰富的经验。如前所述,我们预计主要的增长特许经营,免疫学,肿瘤学和医学美学不会受到整合活动的影响,因此他们可以专注于最大化新产品发布和增长前景。

总之,我们对今天的公告感到非常兴奋。我们认为此交易对两家公司的股东而言具有财务吸引力,因为它提供了深远的战略利益以及显着和即时的增长以及具有吸引力的投资回报。我们相信这些公司的合并性强于分离,我们很高兴与Allergan一起创建一家多元化的生物制药公司,为可持续发展做好准备。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Liz.

有了这个,我会把电话转回Liz。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Rob. We'll now open the call for questions. In an effort to hear from as many analysts as possible over the remainder of the call, we ask that you please limit your questions to one or two. Operator, we will take the first question.

谢谢,罗布。 我们现在打开问题的电话。 为了尽可能多地听取分析师对剩余电话的分析,我们请您将问题限制在一两个。 接下来,我们将采取第一个问题。

问答环节

Thank you. And I'll begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jason Gerberry with Bank of America. You may ask your questions.

谢谢。 我将开始问答环节。 [操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Jason Gerberry和美国银行。 你可以问你的问题。

Jason Gerberry

I guess just first question for Rick. Can you just talk about how you got comfortable with some of the perceived competitive risks to BOTOX be it either migraine or aesthetics? And then secondly, I know you’ll get a couple questions today just around Allergan, to the extent they have any opioid related liability, your level of concern there and just your comfort level that the courts will enforce Pfizer's indemnity obligation there? Thank you.

我想对Rick来说只是第一个问题。 您能谈谈您对BOTOX的一些感知风险如何适应,无论是偏头痛还是美学? 然后,我知道你今天会在Allergan附近遇到几个问题,他们有任何与阿片类药物有关的责任,你在那里的关注程度以及法院将在那里执行辉瑞公司赔偿义务的舒适程度吗? 谢谢。

Rick Gonzalez

All right, thanks, Jason. This is Rick. I'll cover the first question. I'm going to ask Laura to cover the opioid question. What I would say at the outset is, we’ve spent a considerable amount of time analyzing Allergan's business. We have worked on this strategy with our Board for about a year looking at a variety of strategic options, one of which was a larger transaction like this. And when we made the decision that that was the best path to go forward, then we spent a large amount of time analyzing product by product the Allergan portfolio to ensure that it hits the objectives that we had.
And certainly one of the things that we looked at carefully is BOTOX. And we looked at it from the perspective of both what was the risk of biosimilar coming to the market and what was the risk of other branded competitive alternatives entering the market. And as you know, there have been some that have already entered the market. And if you look carefully at how Allergan has performed, I'd say they've done a very good job of protecting BOTOX. They've lost some share, but it's relatively modest. And they've done an excellent job of protecting the brand, both through the brand presence as well as their bundling strategy, and a variety of other techniques that had worked quite well.
As far as it relates to a biosimilar, we -- obviously that’s an area we know well. And I would say when you look at BOTOX it's a very useful molecule. And it's not very low characterized, and it's in very low concentrations. And for a variety of technical reasons, I would tell you that it's highly unlikely that we would see a biosimilar against BOTOX for a long, long time, if ever. And so we became very comfortable with what the forecast was that we'd done.
Now having said that, I would say we have built a conservative forecast across the board for probably all of the assets or at least most of the assets. And when you look at medical aesthetics in total and BOTOX is obviously a significant piece of that, I would say our forecast for the business is at or slightly below what we see even in the most current analyst models that have talked about their medical aesthetics business.
So, I feel very comfortable with the forecast that we have built. I think it's a great business. We plan on investing heavily in the business to continue to drive growth. And when you look at demographics and all the other aspects of this and their competitive position, and the scale at which they have operated in this market, this is an exciting growth platform for AbbVie. So I feel good about it. Laura?

好的,谢谢,杰森。这是瑞克。我将介绍第一个问题。我要请劳拉报道阿片类药物的问题。我在一开始就说的是,我们花了相当多的时间来分析Allergan的业务。我们与董事会一起制定了这一战略,大约一年时间考虑了各种战略选择,其中一个是像这样的大型交易。当我们决定这是前进的最佳途径时,我们花了大量时间分析Allergan产品组合的产品,以确保它符合我们的目标。

当然,我们仔细研究过的其中一件事就是BOTOX。我们从生物仿制药进入市场的风险和其他品牌竞争性替代品进入市场的风险的角度来看待它。如您所知,已经有一些已经进入市场。如果仔细观察Allergan的表现,我会说他们在保护BOTOX方面做得非常好。他们失去了一些份额,但相对温和。他们通过品牌形象以及捆绑策略以及各种其他运作良好的技术,在保护品牌方面做得非常出色。

就生物仿制药而言,我们 - 显然这是我们熟知的领域。我会说当你看BOTOX时它是一个非常有用的分子。它的特征并不是很低,而且浓度很低。由于各种技术原因,我会告诉你,如果有的话,我们很可能会长时间看到针对BOTOX的生物仿制药。所以我们对我们所做的预测变得非常满意。

现在已经说过,我会说我们已经建立了一个保守的预测,可能是所有资产或至少大部分资产。当你全面看待医学美学时,BOTOX显然是其中的一个重要部分,我会说我们对业务的预测是或者略低于我们所看到的,即使是最新的分析师模型,他们谈到了他们的医学美学业务。

所以,我对我们建立的预测感到非常满意。我认为这是一项伟大的业务。我们计划大力投资该业务,以继续推动增长。当您查看人口统计数据及其他所有方面及其竞争地位,以及他们在该市场中的运营规模时,这是AbbVie令人兴奋的增长平台。所以我感觉很好。劳拉?

劳拉·舒马赫

Sure. With respect to the opioid litigation, we're very familiar with this litigation and it's important to note that Allergan had a very small and declining market share in branded opioid for the past 20 years. Our view is that this litigation is in early stages and the legal theories have not been challenged through the legal process yet. In a one case that has proceeded to trial all but one of the plaintiff’s legal theories were dropped before trial. And there are two state courts already that have rejected plaintiff’s theories.
It will be important to see how the trial plays out, and also how the appellate process plays out. We're confident in our ability to handle complex litigation. We have a long track record of achieving both favorable trial verdicts, as well as settlements. We expect that any eventual resolution of these matters will likely request Allergan small branded share. With respect to their generic liability, Teva acquired those liabilities and has reaffirmed its responsibility for those matters on two occasions. We don't anticipate any exposure for those matters.
With respect to Pfizer, similarly, we anticipate that Pfizer will stand behind the liabilities that it acquired also in its purchase of the preceding company, so.

当然。关于阿片类药物诉讼,我们对这一诉讼非常熟悉,重要的是要注意到过去20年来Allergan在品牌阿片类药物中的市场份额非常小且不断下降。我们认为,这一诉讼尚处于初期阶段,法律理论尚未通过法律程序受到质疑。在一个已经开始审判的案件中,除了一个原告的法律理论之外,其他所有法律理论都在审判前被撤销。并且有两个州法院已经拒绝了原告的理论。

重要的是要看看试验是如何发挥作用的,以及上诉过程如何发挥作用。我们对处理复杂诉讼的能力充满信心。我们在实现有利的审判判决以及和解方面有着长期的记录。我们预计,任何最终解决这些问题都可能会要求Allergan小品牌股票。关于他们的一般责任,Teva获得了这些责任,并且两次重申了对这些事项的责任。我们预计不会对这些事项有任何曝光。

就辉瑞而言,同样地,我们预计辉瑞将支持其在收购前一家公司时所获得的负债,因此。

Rick Gonzalez

I think we feel comfortable with the risk. We looked at it carefully.

我认为我们对风险感到满意。 我们仔细看了看。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Jason. Operator, next question please?

谢谢你,杰森。 接线员,下一个问题好吗?

会议主持员

Next question comes from Navin Jacob with UBS. You may ask your question.

下一个问题来自瑞银的Navin Jacob。 你可以问你的问题。

导航雅各布

A couple of things, Rick, you've been very -- AbbVie has been very focused on innovation over the last few years, PCYC, Stemcentrx were clearly innovative deals. While Allergan -- we've highlighted the value of Allergan as well. We're just a little bit surprised by the change in direction here, as well as the size of the deal. Would love some comments on that? And then also, what would you characterize as the primary driver, I realize these things are multi-factorial, but if there was -- if you were to choose one driver of the deal, would that be to derisk the 23 HUMIRA LOE and provide stability in cash flows and earnings or is there something else that you'd like to highlight? Thank you very much.

有几件事,Rick,你一直都很--AbbVie在过去几年里一直非常注重创新,PCYC,Stemcentrx显然是创新的交易。 虽然Allergan - 我们也强调了Allergan的价值。 我们对这里方向的变化以及交易的规模感到有些惊讶。 会不会对此发表一些评论? 然后,你会认为什么是主要的驱动因素,我意识到这些事情是多因素的,但如果有 - 如果你选择一个交易的驱动因素,那将是为了使23 HUMIRA LOE干扰并提供 现金流和收益的稳定性还是还有其他一些你想强调的东西? 非常感谢你。

Rick Gonzalez

All right. Thank you. The first thing, I'd say is, we haven't altered the kind of company that we are and what our strategy is. We are still an innovation focused company. But you do different transactions for different purposes, right? They serve different strategic needs. And I would say, it's all about sequencing of what you do first and then what you do after. We have invested heavily for the last five or six years in driving and building the growth platform. Because from day one, we knew HUMIRA was going to go biosimilar, this is just question of when.
And we knew that we had to build a platform that would allow us to be able to grow through that event. And that platform is tracking exactly the way we had hoped it would. And so we feel good about that. And that was built through a process of internal R&D, as well as going out and doing various transactions, some larger, a lot of smaller ones, in fact I’d say a vast majority of what we’ve done were smaller transactions to be able to build out that pipeline and we have a very large early to mid stage pipeline that is working its way through. And we will get a number of readouts in ‘20, ‘21, ‘22 that will start to emerge and give us visibility as to how many of those assets will become important drugs for us.
So what was the purpose of this transaction? And I think when you look at a transaction like this, you have to think about it in the backdrop of why you’re doing it and what’s the financial benefit for doing. I think that’s the easiest way to think about it. So when we looked at this transaction, what it ultimately allowed us to do is to significantly accelerate the size of that growth platform to get the growth platform to critical mass. And critical mass, we believe it meant that you had to have revenues around $25 billion to $30 billion, and more importantly, you had to have that profitability that ultimately allowed that part of the business to be standalone, self-sufficient and to support the innovation engine that we’d put in place that we value highly.
And so when we -- now in order to do that you can’t take risk on a lot of binary events because you don’t know whether or not those are going to play out or not. So you need to try to find a set of assets that are highly profitable, are large enough, say $10 billion to $15 billion in revenue, and you have a fundamental belief that they’re durable and they can grow. They don’t have to grow rapidly but they have to be able to grow because you don’t want to put a lot of downward pressure on your own growth prospects.
We’re fortunate that our pipeline of late stage assets can drive a tremendous amount of growth. So we don’t need to find something for this purpose, this strategic purpose to drive dramatic growth but we want something that wasn’t declining, didn’t have a lot of LOE risk, as I said which is profitable, so it wasn’t diluted to our overall profit and ultimately had durability and added to the other franchises that we had either a franchise that we’re currently in or franchises that we believe will be important new franchises for us.

行。谢谢。首先,我要说的是,我们没有改变我们的公司类型以及我们的战略。我们仍然是一家专注于创新的公司。但是你为不同的目的做不同的交易,对吗?他们满足不同的战略需求。而且我会说,这完全取决于你先做什么,然后做你做的事。过去五六年来,我们在推动和建立增长平台方面投入了大量资金。因为从第一天起,我们就知道HUMIRA将会生物仿制药,这只是什么时候的问题。

而且我们知道我们必须建立一个平台,让我们能够在这个事件中成长。该平台正在按照我们希望的方式进行跟踪。所以我们对此感觉良好。这是通过内部研发过程建立的,以及走出去做各种交易,一些更大的,更多的小交易,实际上我会说我们所做的绝大部分都是较小的交易。能够构建该管道,我们有一个非常大的早期到中期阶段的管道正在努力。我们将在'20,'21,'22中获得一系列读数,这些读数将开始出现并让我们了解这些资产中有多少将成为我们的重要药物。

那么这笔交易的目的是什么?我认为,当你看到这样的交易时,你必须在你为什么这样做以及做什么带来经济利益的背景下考虑它。我认为这是考虑它的最简单方法。因此,当我们查看此交易时,它最终允许我们做的是显着加快该增长平台的规模,以使增长平台达到临界质量。而临界质量,我们认为这意味着您必须拥有250亿至300亿美元的收入,更重要的是,您必须拥有这种盈利能力,最终使该部分业务独立,自给自足并支持我们实施的创新引擎,我们非常重视。

因此,当我们 - 现在为了做到这一点,你不能冒很多二元事件的风险,因为你不知道这些事件是否会发挥作用。因此,您需要尝试寻找一系列高利润,足够大的资产,比如100亿至150亿美元的收入,并且您有一个基本的信念,即它们是耐用的并且可以增长。他们不需要快速增长,但他们必须能够增长,因为你不想对自己的增长前景施加很大的下行压力。

我们很幸运,我们的后期资产管道可以带来巨大的增长。因此,我们不需要为此目的找到一些东西,这个战略目的是为了推动显着的增长,但我们想要一些没有下降的东西,没有很多的LOE风险,正如我所说的那样有利可图,所以它不是不会稀释到我们的整体利润并最终具有耐久性,并且增加了其他特许经营权,即我们目前拥有的特许经营权或特许经营权,我们认为这将是我们重要的新特许经营权。

And ultimately when we looked at all of the options that were available out there, Allergan fit that profile the best and I am going to talk about value here in a second. And so the purpose of the transaction was that, now, you’d say why did you want to do that? Well we obviously wanted to do that because there are a whole range of outcomes that can occur in 2023. And we have a responsibility as the management of this organization, of this company, to make sure that we have covered that full range of outcomes, meaning either in the worst case, in the bear case, we have to be in a position where the Company is not reliant on that asset.
And the interesting thing when we look at it is and the reason why I’d say as I indicated earlier, why now is because we’re in the unique situation now where HUMIRA can essentially pay for these replacement products. You can take this $15 billion set of assets that are durable and growing and highly profitable and the cash flows from HUMIRA prior to or shortly into, the LOE in 2023 will have paid down the incremental debt that was necessary to be able to buy these assets. So, essentially, HUMIRA is buying the assets that replace it over the long-term.
Now what does that do for us? Well it obviously creates a stable business that’s rapidly growing, that’s large, that has scale from a profitability standpoint. And we will continue to run the strategy that we have run since day one of this company of going out and looking for innovative new products that ultimately will allow us to continue to expand our position in immunology, in oncology, in neuroscience. So it really serves a purpose to eliminate any reliance we have on HUMIRA.
Hopefully, the market will do that in a way that's helpful. But at the end of the day, it's all about running this business to maximize its performance over the long-term, and ensure that we have mitigated any possible risk going forward. And I can tell you, it took a long time to come to this strategy. And I'm extremely excited about what it will do. And it will allow us to continue to drive this business in a way that is consistent with the performance that we’ve delivered. We've delivered top tier performance for the last six years. And this will give us the ability to be able to do that going forward.
So I don't know that that was one factor, because it really is many different factors. And then you have to look at value. And I can tell you that when you look at this transaction from an ROIC standpoint, both our cost of capital in the first year, which is unusual for a transaction of this size, if you do a sum of the parts, this is a very good deal for us. It's immediately accretive in your one, the first full year, 10% and that grows to more than 20%. It has $2 billion of synergies or more, and we’re able to get it at a 45% premium, which is significantly below the last two precedent transactions for a transaction of this size. And so I feel very good about the strategic move here. And I think it'll be a great asset and a great addition to AbbVie.

最后,当我们查看那里提供的所有选项时,Allergan最适合这种情况,我将在一秒钟内讨论价值。因此交易的目的是,现在,你要说你为什么要那样做?好吧,我们显然希望这样做,因为2023年可能会出现一系列结果。我们有责任管理这个公司的组织,以确保我们已经涵盖了全面的结果,意味着在最坏的情况下,在熊市案例中,我们必须处于公司不依赖该资产的位置。

当我们看到它时,有趣的是,我之前说过的原因是,为什么现在因为我们处于独特的情况,现在HUMIRA基本上可以为这些替代产品买单。你可以拿出这套价值150亿美元的资产,这些资产是持久的,不断增长且利润丰厚,而且在2023年LOE之前或之后很快就会有来自HUMIRA的现金流量,这笔资金将用于支付能够购买这些资产所必需的增量债务。 。因此,基本上,HUMIRA正在购买长期取代它的资产。

那对我们有什么用呢?嗯,它显然创造了一个稳定的业务,这个业务正在快速增长,这个业务规模很大,从盈利的角度来看具有规模。我们将继续执行自该公司第一天出发以来寻求创新产品的战略,最终将使我们能够继续扩大我们在免疫学,肿瘤学和神经科学领域的地位。所以它真的有助于消除我们对HUMIRA的依赖。

希望市场能够以有用的方式做到这一点。但最终,这一切都是为了使这项业务在长期内实现最大化,并确保我们能够减轻任何可能的风险。我可以告诉你,这个策略花了很长时间。而且我对它会做什么感到非常兴奋。它将使我们能够以与我们提供的性能一致的方式继续推动这项业务。我们在过去六年中提供了顶级的表现。这将使我们能够做到这一点。

所以我不知道这是一个因素,因为它确实有很多不同的因素。然后你必须看看价值。我可以告诉你,当你从ROIC的角度来看这个交易时,我们的第一年的资本成本,这对于这种规模的交易来说是不寻常的,如果你做了一个部分的总和,这是一个非常对我们来说很划算。它会立即增加你的第一个全年,10%,并且增长到20%以上。它有20亿美元的协同效应或更多,我们能够以45%的溢价获得它,这远远低于此规模交易的最后两个先例交易。所以我对这里的战略举措感到非常满意。而且我认为这将是AbbVie的重要资产和重要补充。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Navin. Operator next question, please.

谢谢,纳文。 接下来请问接下来的问题。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Schimmer with Evercore ISI. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Josh Schimmer和Evercore ISI。 你可以问你的问题。

Josh Schimmer

Seems like the FTC is defining competition much more broadly these days of owning assets and the portfolio as you expect will require closer scrutiny or may need to be divested. And then just a quick second question whether this impacts in any way your expected dividend growth strategy or outlook? Thanks.

似乎联邦贸易委员会正在更广泛地定义竞争,如今拥有资产和投资组合,如您所期望的那样需要更严格的审查或可能需要被剥离。 然后只是第二个问题,这是否会以任何方式影响您的预期股息增长策略或前景? 谢谢。

Rick Gonzalez

Okay. May I have Laura answer the first one and I'll answer the dividend point.

好的。 我可以让劳拉回答第一个,我会回答分红点。

劳拉·舒马赫

With respect to the FTC, we don't anticipate any significant issues with the FTC approval process. There are a few small product overlaps that we've agreed to divest promptly. But other than those, we really don't foresee any significant issues.

关于FTC,我们预计FTC批准程序不会出现任何重大问题。 我们已经同意迅速剥离一些小产品重叠。 但除此之外,我们确实没有预见到任何重大问题。

Rick Gonzalez

Okay. On the dividend, look, again, this just assures that we can continue to drive a strong and growing dividend. We're absolutely committed to a growing dividend, and nothing has changed. And this gives us a higher level of assurity to be able to continue to do that at a robust rate.

好的。 在股息上,再次看,这只是确保我们可以继续推动强劲和不断增长的红利。 我们绝对致力于增加股息,而且没有任何改变。 这使我们有更高的水平,能够以稳健的速度继续做到这一点。

Liz Shea

Okay. Thanks, Josh. Operator, next question, please.

好的。 谢谢,乔希。 接下来是运营商,下一个问题。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Terence Flynn with Goldman Sachs. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Terence Flynn和Goldman Sachs。 你可以问你的问题。

特伦斯·弗林

I was just wondering -- I noticed you didn't reiterate your 2025 targets, at least from what I saw in the slide deck, Rick. So, I was just wondering if you could talk about that and how you thought about those targets, if anything changed on that front. And then would love your thoughts in terms of, you talked a lot about kind of the strategic rationale behind the deal and how there are different deals for different periods of time. Did any of the recent policy proposals out there play a role in terms of how you are thinking about this deal versus other deals? Just would love your perspective on that front as well. Thank you.

我只是想知道 - 我注意到你没有重申你的2025年目标,至少从我在幻灯片中看到的,Rick。 所以,我只是想知道你是否可以谈论这个以及你如何看待这些目标,如果在这方面有任何改变的话。 然后会喜欢你的想法,你谈了很多关于交易背后的战略理由以及不同时期有不同的交易。 是否有任何最近的政策提案在你如何考虑这笔交易与其他交易方面发挥作用? 只是也喜欢你对这方面的看法。 谢谢。

Rick Gonzalez

Sure. I mean on the 2025 targets, nothing has changed. I'd say the growth platform is really characterized by those targets, is on track. And I would tell you, if anything, SKYRIZI as I mentioned in my formal comments, is tracking significantly ahead of our expectation.
So I would say, we're pleased with what we're seeing there. It's delivering exactly the kind of value that we hoped it would. On the policy proposals, I wouldn't say it played a prominent role. Certainly, if you look at the medical aesthetics business, it's about $4.5 billion in revenue and growing nicely. And it's nice to have a business that’s a cash pay business, it's not subject to those things. But in a grand scheme of things, it's still 10%, 12% of the overall enterprise.
So, we're committed to being an innovative biopharmaceutical company. And we fundamentally believe that regardless of what happens in the environment, if you bring medicines that truly make a difference to the patients, the systems ultimately will pay for those and we see that in all the socialized medicine systems around the world, where we do extremely well with our products. So for me, it's more about making sure that you're bringing products to the market that make a real difference.

当然。我的意思是在2025年的目标上,没有任何改变。我说增长平台的确有这些目标的特点,正在走上正轨。我会告诉你,如果有的话,我在正式评论中提到的SKYRIZI正在大大超出我们的预期。

所以我想说,我们对在那里看到的东西很满意。它提供了我们希望的那种价值。关于政策建议,我不会说它发挥了突出作用。当然,如果你看看医学美学业务,它的收入大约为45亿美元,并且增长良好。拥有一家现金支付业务的企业很不错,它不受这些事情的影响。但在一个宏大的计划中,它仍然占整个企业的10%,12%。

因此,我们致力于成为一家创新的生物制药公司。我们从根本上相信,不管环境中发生了什么,如果您携带真正对患者产生影响的药物,系统最终将支付这些费用,我们在世界各地的所有社会化医疗系统中看到了这一点,我们在那里做我们的产品非常好。所以对我而言,更重要的是确保您将产品推向市场,从而产生真正的变化。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Terence. Operator, next question please.

谢谢,特伦斯。 接下来的问题请接线员

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from David Risinger with Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question. David, your line is open. Go ahead with your question.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的David Risinger。 你可以问你的问题。 大卫,你的路线是敞开的。 继续你的问题。

Liz Shea

It sounds like David is not on, if you want to go to the next question?

如果你想进入下一个问题,听起来大卫还没上电话?

会议主持员

Certainly and that comes from Geoffrey Porges with SVB Leerink. Your line is open. Sir, you may ask your question.

当然,这来自Geoffrey Porges和SVB Leerink。 你的线是开放的。 先生,您可以提出您的问题。

Geoffrey Porges

Thank you very much and congratulations on reshaping the industry yet again, Rick. First, could you just talk about breakup fees and your confidence that there won’t be a counter offer for Allergan? Secondly, could you talk a little bit about what you see as the long-term operating margin outlook for the combined business? And then lastly, Mike, could you talk a little bit about the pipeline opportunities you see in the current Allergan portfolio, which are the programs that you think are of a particular opportunity and/or synergy with the existing AbbVie portfolio? Thank you.

非常感谢并祝贺Rick再次重塑这个行业。 首先,你能谈谈分手费和你对Allergan没有反击的信心吗? 其次,您能否谈一谈您所看到的合并后业务的长期经营利润率前景? 最后,迈克,您能否谈一谈您在当前Allergan投资组合中看到的管道机会,您认为哪些项目与现有的AbbVie投资组合具有特定的机会和/或协同效应? 谢谢。

Rick Gonzalez

Yes. Jeff, so this is Rick, I'll cover the first two. So on the breakup fee, the breakup fee are public, it's a 1% on their side, 2% on our side. So it's pretty standard for transactions of this nature. There's nothing unique about it. This has been a very cooperative process between us and Allergan. I would credit their executive leadership team for the effort that they’ve put into it, how open they were. We’ve spent quite a bit of time in diligence with them. And they were extremely open and helpful in helping us verify the assumptions that we made. So I'm not overly concerned about that.
We're obviously not in a position where we're going to publish guidance yet around this, so around the operating margins. But as I said, one of the things that we were looking for as we were looking for an opportunity here that might fit this part of the strategy is we wanted a company that had operating margins and gross margins that were reflective of our own, so they weren't dilutive. And Allergan does have very nice gross margins and operating margins in the business. And so I think we'll end up with a very strong operating margin profile for the combined company. Mike?

是。杰夫,所以这是里克,我将覆盖前两个。所以在分手费方面,分手费是公开的,他们是1%,2%是我们这边。因此,这种交易非常标准。它没有什么独特之处。这是我们和Allergan之间非常合作的过程。我会赞扬他们的执行领导团队为他们付出的努力,他们有多开放。我们花了很多时间与他们一起努力。他们非常开放,有助于我们验证我们做出的假设。所以我并不过分担心。

我们显然没有能够围绕这个发布指导,所以围绕运营利润。但正如我所说的那样,我们正在寻找的机会之一就是我们在这里寻找可能符合战略这一部分的机会,我们想要的是一家公司,其经营利润率和毛利率都反映了我们自己,所以他们不稀释。 Allergan确实拥有非常好的毛利率和营业利润率。因此,我认为合并后的公司最终将拥有非常强劲的营业利润率。麦克风?

Michael Severino

Okay, Geoff, this is Mike. I think it’s important to keep in mind that the large majority of the value of this transaction comes from Allergan’s strong portfolio of on-market products. Having said that, there are areas in the pipeline that were interesting such as their CNS programs, VRAYLAR is a very attractive asset, it’s in its growth phase and their migraine portfolio was very attractive when you look at the combination of BOTOX and their oral CGRP assets. To be conservative we hadn’t built in a large contribution from the pipeline and all of the programs are appropriately risk adjusted. So you should think of the Allergan pipeline is providing optionality for us.

好的,杰夫,这是迈克。 我认为重要的是要记住,这笔交易的绝大部分价值来自Allergan强大的市场产品组合。 话虽如此,有一些领域有趣,例如他们的CNS计划,VRAYLAR是一个非常有吸引力的资产,它处于成长阶段,当你看到BOTOX和他们的口服CGRP的组合时,他们的偏头痛组合非常有吸引力 资产。 为保守起见,我们没有从管道中做出大量贡献,所有计划都经过适当的风险调整。 所以你应该想到Allergan管道为我们提供了可选性。

Liz Shea

Thanks, operator. Next question please.

谢谢,运营商。 请问下一个问题。

会议主持员

Thank you. Next question comes from David Risinger with Morgan Stanley. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 下一个问题来自大卫·里辛格和摩根士丹利。 你可以问你的问题。

朱申吴

Hi, there. This is Zhu Shen on behalf of Dave Risinger. Could you please discuss the pro forma debt and net debt-to-EBITDA and separately comment on potential revenue synergy opportunities which are not factored into your financial assumptions? Thank you.

嗨,您好。 这是朱慎代表Dave Risinger。 您能否请讨论备考债务和净债务与EBITDA,并分别评估潜在的收入协同机会,这些机会未纳入您的财务假设? 谢谢。

Rob Michael

So, this is Rob. So in terms of the debt, net debt-to-EBITDA, we were expecting in the near term to be trending towards 3 times with improvement later in the LRP as we made a commitment to reduce debt.

所以,这是Rob。 因此,就债务,净负债与EBITDA而言,由于我们承诺减少债务,我们预计短期内趋势将向3倍趋势,随后在LRP中有所改善。

Rick Gonzalez

This is Rick. Can you repeat the second question? I want to make sure I answer it properly for you.

这是瑞克。 你能重复第二个问题吗? 我想确保为你妥善回答。

朱申吴

Sure. We’re hoping you could comment on potential revenue synergy opportunities which are not factored into your current financial assumptions?

当然。 我们希望您能评论潜在的收入协同机会,而这些机会并未纳入您当前的财务假设?

Rick Gonzalez

Oh! So you’re asking about upsize to our forecast right?

哦! 所以你问的是我们预测的大小吗?

朱申吴

Yes.

是。

Rick Gonzalez

Okay, well, as I said, we build a forecast that we’re comfortable with and that would be the one that we based our projections upon. Obviously there are significant opportunities here for the combined company to be able to enhance the performance. If you look as an example at the women’s health area, if you take their portfolio of products in women’s health, they’ve done an excellent job with their proprietary oral contraceptive. Total franchise is a little over $800 million growing at mid-single-digits as an example.
We obviously have created a sales organization to a sizable sales organization to drive ORILISSA on endometriosis, it’s in the early phases of that launch. Those two are absolutely synergistic and we would believe that we should be able to create a significant opportunity to be able to drive more rapid growth in that area for both ORILISSA and potentially for their products as well. We will ultimately put those organizations together which will give us a broader coverage of that particular physician group. And so, ultimately that’s one area that you could see some potential upside over the long-term.
Internationally, we have a very large geographic global footprint. We operate in 170 countries around the world. It’s obviously significantly larger than what Allergan has. So these products will ultimately get dropped into that infrastructure and I think will be able to provide significant value for the Allergan product portfolio based on that global footprint. So I think those are the two most significant ones.

好吧,正如我所说,我们建立了一个我们感到满意的预测,这将是我们根据我们的预测进行的预测。显然,合并后的公司有很大机会能够提升绩效。如果你看一下女性健康领域的一个例子,如果你把她们的产品组合用于女性的健康,那么他们用他们专有的口服避孕药做得很好。作为一个例子,总体特许经营权以中等个位数增长略高于8亿美元。

我们显然已经为一个规模庞大的销售组织创建了一个销售组织来推动ORILISSA治疗子宫内膜异位症,它正处于推出的早期阶段。这两者绝对具有协同作用,我们相信我们应该能够创造一个重要的机会,以便能够在ORILISSA以及潜在的产品中为该领域带来更快的增长。我们最终将这些组织放在一起,这将使我们更广泛地了解该特定医师组。因此,最终这是一个你可以看到长期潜在上升空间的领域。

在国际上,我们拥有非常大的地理全球足迹。我们在全球170个国家开展业务。它明显比Allergan大得多。因此,这些产品最终将落入该基础架构中,我认为将能够根据全球足迹为Allergan产品组合提供重要价值。所以我认为这是最重要的两个。

Liz Shea

Thank you. Operator, next question please.

谢谢。 接下来的问题请接线员

会议主持员

Thank you. The next question comes from Vamil Divan with Credit Suisse. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 接下来的问题来自瑞士信贷的Vamil Divan。 你可以问你的问题。

Vamil Divan

Maybe just -- you touched on this a little bit before Rick but just sort of a single large deal as opposed to more of a series of smaller, more maybe innovation pipeline driven deals. Can you maybe just talk through sort of the thinking I think especially with large deals? We sort of worry about disruption or integration risk, that maybe less so when you do a smaller bolt-on? So how do you sort of get comfortable with the concept of a large deal and dealing with the integration risk? And then maybe a couple questions we received on some of the pipeline assets. Like I appreciate the comments you made on the CNS franchise. Just specifically there's been some controversy around some of their assets in eye care like abicipar and also their NASH program. I wonder if you have any comments specifically to those assets, and how you thought about that in terms of valuation for the deal?

也许只是 - 你在Rick之前稍微触及了这一点,但只是一个大的交易而不是更多的一系列更小的,更多可能是创新的管道驱动交易。 您是否可以通过我认为特别是大宗交易的想法来谈谈? 我们有点担心中断或集成风险,当你做一个较小的螺栓固定时,可能会更少? 那么,您如何对大型交易的概念感到满意并处理整合风险? 然后我们可能会收到一些关于某些管道资产的问题。 我赞赏你对CNS特许经营的评论。 具体而言,他们在眼科护理方面的一些资产,例如abicipar以及他们的NASH项目,都存在一些争议。 我想知道您是否对这些资产有任何评论,以及您对该交易的估值如何考虑?

Rick Gonzalez

Okay, Vamil. So let me cover the first one, and maybe I'll take it in a couple of different pieces. So let's start with integration risk. We don't view this transaction as having a high level of integration risk, we've obviously done larger transactions both here as well as when we were a part of Abbott, most of this scheme came from Abbott where we did Solvay as an integration and a number of other larger integrations. And I'd say obviously, Allergan has had a lot of experience with that as well.
Our goal will be to fence off the growth franchises. So like medical aesthetics or our immunology franchise or our hematological oncology franchise, would be essentially firewall those off, so that they are not disruptive at all in this process, and we want them to continue to drive as they have been. And that'll be an important aspect of it. There when you look at the synergies, about 50% of the synergies come from R&D, so there'll be a fair amount of activity that comes in that area, around 10% of them come from operations, plant rationalization, activities, cost improvement activities there, and then a smaller percentage comes from SG&A. So I don't view this as a transaction that has a high level of integration risk. We've looked at the synergies carefully and I'd say we're very confident in that number. And I don't view it as being disruptive to the business.
If you look at the range of possibilities, I mentioned earlier that we have been going through a process with our Board for a year or maybe a little bit more than a year. And we looked at three different types of transactions to evaluate what is the best way to be able to operate the business through the 2023 LOE event with HUMIRA. And one was obviously just an enhanced string of pearls. One was one or two big bolt-ons, and then one was a larger transaction like this.
If you look at a large number or a larger number of string of pearls, fundamentally when you look at that, one, you have to have the availability of those assets. Number two, in order for you to do that, you obviously have to increase R&D in the period leading up to the event, which would be dilutive to our earnings growth leading up, that in and of itself is not that big of a challenge. But then you're relying on a series of binary events that can play out positively or negatively. If they play out negatively, you get there and ultimately, you haven't accomplished what your objective was.
If you look at a large bolt-on, you have a similar kind of risk, except it's even more binary in its outcome. And it's hard to find a bolt-on that can give you $10 billion to $15 billion of revenue to be able to advance that growth platform rapidly.
And so the ideal strategy is the strategy that we ended up on, it's low risk. You're adding assets that you can continue to drive. They ultimately provide the support, because you want to be able to bring critical mass to the growth platform. The pipeline that we have ultimately can drive the long-term growth of the business quite well industry leading. And so we're in the fortunate position that we have a strong pipeline, but this gave us the critical mass. And it did it in a way that wasn't risky. And by doing it now, HUMIRA can pay for those assets leading up to it.

好的,Vamil。所以让我来介绍第一个,也许我会把它分成几个不同的部分。那么让我们从集成风险开始吧。我们不认为这个交易具有高水平的整合风险,我们显然在这里以及当我们是雅培的一部分时做了更大的交易,这个方案的大部分来自雅培,我们将索尔维作为一个整合以及其他一些较大的集成。而且我很明显地说,Allergan也有很多经验。

我们的目标是阻止增长的特许经营权。因此,就像医学美学或我们的免疫学特许经营或我们的血液肿瘤学特许经营一样,基本上是防火墙,这样它们在这个过程中根本没有破坏性,我们希望它们继续像往常一样开车。这将是它的一个重要方面。当你看到协同效应时,大约50%的协同效应来自研发,因此该领域会有相当多的活动,其中约10%来自运营,工厂合理化,活动,成本改善那里的活动,然后较小的百分比来自SG&A。所以我不认为这是一个具有高度集成风险的交易。我们仔细研究了这种协同作用,并且我说我们对这个数字非常有信心。我不认为它对业务造成破坏。

如果你看一下可能性的范围,我之前提到我们已经和我们的董事会进行了一年或者一年多一点的过程。我们研究了三种不同类型的交易,以评估通过HUMIRA的2023 LOE事件能够运营业务的最佳方式。其中一个显然只是一串增强的珍珠。一个是一两个大螺栓,然后一个是这样的更大的交易。

如果你看一下大量或大量的珍珠串,从根本上说,当你看到它时,你必须拥有这些资产的可用性。第二,为了让你这样做,你显然必须在事件发生之前增加研发,这将对我们的盈利增长产生稀释,这本身并不是一个巨大的挑战。但是,你依赖于一系列可以正面或负面发挥的二元事件。如果他们发挥出负面影响,那么你到达目的地,最终,你还没有完成你的目标。

如果你看一个大型螺栓,你会有类似的风险,除了它的结果更加二元化。而且很难找到可以为您带来100亿至150亿美元收入的螺栓固定,以便能够迅速推进该增长平台。

所以理想的策略是我们最终采取的策略,风险很低。您正在添加可以继续驾驶的资产。他们最终提供支持,因为您希望能够为增长平台带来临界质量。我们最终的管道可以推动业务的长期增长,行业领先。因此,我们处于幸运的位置,我们拥有强大的管道,但这给了我们临界质量。它以一种没有风险的方式做到了。通过现在这样做,HUMIRA可以支付那些导致它的资产。

Now, it doesn't mean that you abandoned the others, there's still plenty of capacity to be able to go out and do the string of pearl strategy that we have employed leading up to this that has been so successful and being able to drive the performance. It's a question of sequencing. We did this one first, then we returned back to the strategy we had before to continue to enhance the pipeline.
So I think it is very elegant and how it works is relatively simplistic when you think about it. This transaction is not a transaction that's highly dependent on pipeline. There are some pipeline assets there. Certainly the CGRPs are ones that we did build in some revenue for in our model. And we looked at those carefully to make sure that we're comfortable with those. And then Mike can talk about some of these other programs. Mike?

现在,这并不意味着你放弃了其他人,仍然有足够的能力出去做我们已经采用的珍珠战略,导致这一点非常成功并且能够驾驶 性能。 这是一个排序问题。 我们先做了这个,然后我们回到了之前的策略,继续加强管道。

所以我觉得它很优雅,当你想到它时,它的工作方式相对简单。 此事务不是高度依赖管道的事务。 那里有一些管道资产。 当然,CGRP是我们在模型中为一些收入建立的。 我们仔细查看了这些内容,以确保我们对这些内容感到满意。 然后迈克可以谈论其他一些程序。 麦克风?

Michael Severino

Okay, this is Mike. So with respect to NASH, we recognize that drug development in NASH has been very challenging and we have not included NASH in our model. Obviously, there are some clinical studies or a clinical study that’s ongoing with the NASH compound, so we’ll have to see how that plays out but that's not an area that we're counting on.
With respect to abicipar, the investments are already behind us there. So we view this as optionality as I discussed in one of the earlier questions. We'll have to see what the label looks like to have a better sense for the opportunity. And the trade off we're looking at is the benefit of the longer acting nature of this agent compared to the patients who experience ocular inflammation, which is in the order of about 8% to 10% of patients.
We'll have to see what that looks like in the label and we'll have to see how that's viewed by treating physicians. So, more has to play out here before we can be certain. We've included appropriate risk adjustment for this in our model. And so again, it’s not something that we're dependent on.

好的,这是迈克。因此,对于NASH,我们认识到NASH中的药物开发一直非常具有挑战性,我们还没有将NASH纳入我们的模型中。显然,有一些临床研究或临床研究正在进行NASH化合物,因此我们必须看看它是如何发挥作用的,但这不是我们所依赖的领域。

就市情而言,投资已经落后于我们。所以我们认为这是我在之前的一个问题中所讨论的可选性。我们必须看看标签看起来有什么更好的机会。我们正在研究的权衡是这种药剂的长效性质与患有眼部炎症的患者相比的益处,眼部炎症约为患者的8%至10%。

我们必须看看标签中的样子,我们必须看看医生如何看待它。所以,在我们确定之前,还有更多必须在这里发挥。我们在模型中包含了适当的风险调整。再说一次,这不是我们依赖的东西。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Vamil. Operator, next question please.

谢谢,Vamil。 接下来的问题请接线员

会议主持员

Thank you. Your next question comes from Tim Anderson with Wolfe Research. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 你的下一个问题来自Tim Anderson和Wolfe Research。 你可以问你的问题。

蒂姆安德森

You talked about robust growth through 2023. I think investor concerns have usually been around growth beyond ‘23. So I'm hoping you can address that, specifically on operating margins, at least our model shows big operating margin contraction with AbbVie as a standalone with 2023 being a peak and declining from there for the combined company. Can you talk about operating margins from 2023 onwards? Just directionally not asking you to give absolute numbers, will those operating margin stay flat, will they grow, might be a decline again with 2023 being a reference point? And then on Allergan as well, you talked about all the good things of Allergan. Naturally the other side of that discussion, there are risks to this sort of thing. So with this collection -- $63 billion collection of assets, what are the potential greatest risks that you see?

你谈到了到2023年的强劲增长。我认为投资者的关注通常是在23岁以后的增长。 所以我希望你可以解决这个问题,特别是在经营利润率方面,至少我们的模型显示运营利润率大幅下降,而AbbVie是独立的,2023是一个高峰,并且从合并后的公司那里下降。 您能否谈谈从2023年开始的营业利润率? 只是方向性地没有要求你给出绝对数字,这些经营利润率会保持不变,它们是否会增长,可能会再次下降,因为2023是一个参考点? 然后在Allergan上,你谈到了Allergan的所有好事。 当然,在讨论的另一方面,这类事情存在风险。 因此,通过这个集合 - 630亿美元的资产收集,您看到的潜在最大风险是什么?

Rick Gonzalez

Okay. Well, I mean, first of all, Tim, thanks for the question. Obviously, we're not going to give guidance on this call about 2023. But I'll talk directionally about your point. If you look at this transaction and you look at the range of possibilities in 2023 because there are a range of outcomes that are potentially available in 2023 as it relates to biosimilars, obviously the deeper the discounting the more pressure it puts on operating margin, there’s obviously cost that can be offset against that.
But you have to recognize this business has an operating margin that’s pretty close to our operating margin. It will obviously raise the floor of whatever the floor ultimate is in 2023, it won’t be dilutive to our operating margin. The combined company based on the range of outcomes that we’ve looked at, the erosion outcomes that we have looked at has a very respectable operating margin profile, in fact I’d say it out there is one of the best in the industry, even when you look at the other range of erosion for HUMIRA in 2023. So hopefully that’s helpful at least directionally. As we get closer we’ll obviously put out guidance but this isn’t a time that we’re going to do that.
And if you look at the risk around this business, I would say that there’s not a lot of risk. We’re not betting on pipeline. So if some of their pipeline assets were to work out, they would be an upside to our model. We built in very-very modest assumption in this. I’ve described our view of BOTOX which people talk about the risk. As I said, we have built a model that is at or slightly below with what the most recent analyst reports have been. So I’d say if anything it is a conservative model. And so, I think we’re pretty comfortable with what that looks like.
I don’t view that will be very disruptive to their major growth engines because we will basically try to make sure that they are protected for many disruption. The medical aesthetics business is an area that we will aggressively fund and there’ll be other aspects of that business that we will aggressively fund as well. Their neuroscience business particularly VRAYLAR I think has a significant upside opportunity to it. And ultimately there are a couple of other products in that neuroscience pipeline that although we didn’t built them in but ultimately could potentially have some upside to it.
So I don’t view that this transaction has a lot of significant risks and that was part of the reason why it was appealing to us. When we want to have the availability of this $15 billion portfolio of durable growing assets we didn’t want a lot of risk. We wanted something that we could be comfortable was going to cover the 2023 event and stabilize that aspect in a way that we would continue to be able to drive growth.
I think one of the important things that investors and analysts need to look at now is they really need to look at AbbVie as two very separate pieces of business. You’re going to have this $30 billion growth platform that’s going to grow at high single-digits for the next decade. Now that’s the size of some of our competitors when you look at in the way of revenue and you look at in the way of profitability as a standalone.

好的。好吧,我的意思是,首先,蒂姆,谢谢你提出这个问题。显然,我们不打算在2023年就这个电话给出指导。但我会就你的观点进行定向谈话。如果你看看这个交易,你看一下2023年的可能性范围,因为2023年可能会有一系列与生物仿制药有关的结果,显然贴现越深,它对经营利润的压力就越大,那就是显然,成本可以抵消。

但你必须承认这项业务的营业利润率与我们的营业利润率非常接近。它显然会提高2023年最低限度的底线,它不会稀释我们的营业利润率。合并后的公司根据我们所看到的结果范围,我们所看到的侵蚀结果具有非常可观的经营利润率,事实上我会说它是业内最好的之一,即使你在2023年看到HUMIRA的其他侵蚀范围。所以希望这至少对定向有帮助。随着我们越来越近,我们显然会提出指导,但这不是我们要做的那个时候。

如果你看看这个行业的风险,我会说风险并不大。我们不打赌管道。因此,如果他们的一些管道资产能够解决,那么它们将成为我们模型的一个好处。我们在这方面建立了非常非常适度的假设。我已经描述了我们对BOTOX的观点,人们谈论风险。正如我所说,我们已经建立了一个模型,该模型与最新的分析师报告一致或稍低。所以我会说它是否是一个保守的模型。所以,我认为我们对这看起来很舒服。

我不认为这对他们的主要增长引擎会非常具有破坏性,因为我们基本上会尝试确保它们受到许多中断的保护。医学美学业务是我们将积极资助的领域,我们将积极资助该业务的其他方面。他们的神经科学业务,特别是VRAYLAR,我认为它有很大的上升机会。最终,神经科学管道中还有其他几种产品虽然我们没有将它们构建出来,但最终可能会有一些好处。

因此,我不认为此交易存在很多重大风险,这也是它吸引我们的部分原因。当我们希望拥有这个价值150亿美元的耐用增长资产组合时,我们不想要大量风险。我们希望我们可以放心的事情将涵盖2023事件,并以一种我们将继续推动增长的方式稳定这一方面。

我认为投资者和分析师现在需要关注的重要事项之一就是他们真的需要将AbbVie视为两个非常独立的业务。您将拥有这个价值300亿美元的增长平台,该平台将在未来十年内以高单位数增长。现在,当你以收入的方式看待我们的一些竞争对手的规模时,你会把它看作是一个独立的盈利方式。

And then you’re going to have HUMIRA, there essentially it’s only role is to produce cash flow to pay down the debt and then in 2023 we will obviously defend HUMIRA aggressively. But whatever happens in 2023, the Company is not dependent on, it turns out better than we have assumed then ultimately it'll be upside. If it doesn't, if it turns out the same or worse, then we're covered. And this event basically does that. And that’s how investors got to look at it.
The value of this $30 billion platform, so what it is versus our competitors, the total value on HUMIRA and when you add them together, that's what AbbVie is. And as we go through that event, ultimately HUMIRA will stabilize at whatever level it stabilizes that and that would be the new company and the new company will grow dramatically from that point forward. That's how we’ll do it.

然后你会有HUMIRA,基本上它的唯一作用是产生现金流以偿还债务,然后在2023年我们显然会积极地捍卫HUMIRA。 但无论2023年发生什么,公司都没有依赖,它比我们假设的更好,最终它将是上升空间。 如果没有,如果结果相同或更差,那么我们就被覆盖了。 而这个事件基本上就是这样。 这就是投资者如何看待它。

这个300亿美元平台的价值,与竞争对手相比,HUMIRA的总价值以及何时将它们加在一起,这就是AbbVie的价值所在。 当我们经历这一事件时,最终HUMIRA将稳定在它稳定的任何水平,那将是新公司,新公司将从那时起大幅增长。 这就是我们如何做到的。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Tim. Operator, next question please.

蒂姆,谢谢。 接下来的问题请接线员

会议主持员

Your next question comes from Andrew Baum with Citi. You may ask your question.

你的下一个问题来自花旗的安德鲁鲍姆。 你可以问你的问题。

Andrew Baum

Thank you. A couple of questions please. Firstly, in the event that Sandoz prevailed in that court case against Amgen and launch biosimilar Enbrel, what's the impact for your credit rating? And could you comment on how you think that may impact HUMIRA usage in 2020 year, have all the plans been already finalized? And then second, in relation to 2 billion cost savings, perhaps you can identify how much is sourced from Allergan and how much actually is from AbbVie itself? Many thanks.

谢谢。 请问几个问题。 首先,如果Sandoz在针对Amgen的法庭案件中胜诉并推出生物仿制药Enbrel,那么对您的信用评级有何影响? 您是否可以评论您认为这可能会影响2020年HUMIRA的使用情况,所有计划是否已经完成? 其次,相对于节省20亿美元的成本,或许您可以确定Allergan的采购量和AbbVie本身的实际数量是多少? 非常感谢。

Rick Gonzalez

Okay. So, obviously, we can’t speculate on the Enbrel court case. We've looked at various outcomes, we don't think it will have a significant impact on HUMIRA. Remember that Enbrel really is -- it's a significant player in the RA market, it's not a significant player in the psoriasis market to any great extent now. And the plans for the most part are in a strong position for 2020. So I don't view that as a major risk. And so, as far as credit ratings are concerned, Rob, do you want to comment on that?

好的。 因此,显然,我们无法推测Enbrel法庭的案件。 我们研究了各种结果,我们认为它不会对HUMIRA产生重大影响。 请记住,Enbrel确实是 - 它在RA市场中是一个重要的参与者,它现在在牛皮癣市场上并不是一个重要的参与者。 大部分计划在2020年处于强势地位。所以我不认为这是一个主要风险。 所以,就信用评级而言,罗布,您想对此发表评论吗?

Rob Michael

No, we've had very good discussions with ratings agencies. They, of course, run a whole host of scenarios that they consider for the ratings. If you look at what Moody's published today, they maintained a rating of the stable outlook, we're still one notch above with S&P based on what they published today. So, they are obviously looking at a whole host of scenarios, and I'm sure considered this amongst others. And we're very comfortable with the way our rating is sitting now.

不,我们与评级机构进行了很好的讨论。 当然,他们运行他们考虑评级的一系列场景。 如果看一下穆迪今天发布的内容,他们维持对稳定前景的评级,根据他们今天发布的标准,我们仍然比标准普尔高出一级。 因此,他们显然正在考虑一系列场景,我肯定会考虑这一点。 而且我们对现在的评级方式非常满意。

Rick Gonzalez

So on the synergies, this is an area that we need to be careful from an Irish Takeover code. What I would tell you, as I mentioned earlier that about half of the synergies come from R&D. Obviously, that would be primarily or exclusively on the Allergan side. But beyond that, I don't necessarily feel comfortable talking about those.

因此,在协同效应方面,我们需要谨慎对待爱尔兰收购代码。 正如我之前提到的那样,我会告诉你,大约一半的协同效应来自研发。 显然,这主要或完全取决于Allergan方面。 但除此之外,谈论这些问题我并不一定会感到很自在。

Liz Shea

Okay. Thank you, Andrew. Operator we have time for one final question.

好的。 谢谢你,安德鲁。 接下来,我们有时间提出最后一个问题。

会议主持员

Thank you. And we do have time for one final question that comes from Greg Gilbert with SunTrust. You may ask your question.

谢谢。 我们确实有时间为Greg Gilbert和SunTrust提出最后一个问题。 你可以问你的问题。

格雷格吉尔伯特

Thank you. Good morning, Rick. Good to hear not much focus on taxes here but interesting that you're bringing a former U.S. company back to the U.S. So maybe you can get some brownie points for that or a tweet from the President, to make sure to play that up. But my two part question is as follows. How can you ensure that the aesthetics business which many view as the crown jewel remains focused and special in the context of a much larger company? You talked a lot about what Allergan has done in the past in terms of its programs, et cetera and we agree, looking for more sort of forward looking stuff to maintain the specialness of that key franchise. And then as sort of a part of that, you mentioned cash pay being more relevant now for AbbVie but not enormously so. So once you digest this deal and move ahead pre-HUMIRA LOE is becoming more cash pay oriented part of the plan? Thanks.

谢谢。 早上好,瑞克。 很高兴听到这里不太关注税收,但很有意思的是,你将一家前美国公司带回美国。所以也许你可以获得一些布朗尼点数或总统的推文,以确保发挥它。 但我的两部分问题如下。 您如何确保许多人认为作为皇冠上的宝石的美学业务在更大公司的背景下仍然是专注和特殊的? 你谈了很多关于Allergan过去在程序方面所做的事情,等等,我们同意,寻找更多前瞻性的东西来维持这个关键特许经营的特殊性。 然后作为其中的一部分,你提到现金支付现在对于AbbVie更为重要,但并非如此。 因此,一旦你消化了这笔交易并继续前进,那么HUMIRA LOE会成为更多以现金支付为导向的计划的一部分吗? 谢谢。

Rick Gonzalez

First of all, I would say, certainly the medical aesthetics is a very good business. But I wouldn't want to shortchange other aspects of Allergan. I think that neuroscience business is a very attractive business and the women's health business, although it hasn't gotten a lot of attention from a performance standpoint, is another part of their business that I think is being very well run.
So, there are many, many aspects. I would say, overall, as I interacted with and our team interacting with their team, they have a very talented team. But specific to your question, I would use Pharmacyclics as the example. If you remember, when we bought Pharmacyclics, there were similar kinds of questions about what makes you think you're running oncology business, a small entrepreneurial company, are you going to kill it, it’s probably a little harsh. But it was pretty close to are you going to kill it. And ultimately, it's going to lose all of its ability to continue to perform.
I think we have demonstrated over and over again that we have -- we understand how to run these businesses. We will be setting up the aesthetics business in a fashion that it will maintaining the Allergan name, it will essentially run as a standalone platform. Think of it like a sub of AbbVie and our goal will be to retain across all of Allergan, as much of the talent as we can, we think will be very successful at that. But our goal will be to retain the talent in medical aesthetics to make sure that that business is not disruptive as we move forward. And I'm confident we'll be able to do that.
I can't say we have -- on the second question, I can’t say we have a strategy that we're going to focus more and more on cash pay. Obviously, we will try to goal the medical aesthetics business as rapidly as we can. And we will fund it accordingly to try to be able to drive that level of performance. And as it grows, obviously, it will become a larger portion. But I wouldn't expect us to go out and do other transactions that would add to the cash pay part of the business. We obviously will feed the medical aesthetics business with additional activity. They have been good at being able to do that to add products through acquisitions. So we'll clearly do that for that part of the business. But outside the scope of medical aesthetic, there won't be a focus on looking for other cash pay businesses, which I think is where your question was going.

首先,我要说的是,医学美学肯定是一项非常好的生意。但我不想简短地改变Allergan的其他方面。我认为神经科学业务是一项非常有吸引力的业务,而女性的健康业务,虽然从业绩角度来看并没有得到很多关注,但我认为其业务的另一部分运行良好。

所以,有很多方面。我会说,总的来说,当我与我们的团队进行互动并与他们的团队进行互动时,他们拥有一支非常有才华的团队。但具体到你的问题,我会以Pharmacyclics为例。如果你还记得,当我们购买Pharmacyclics时,有类似的问题是关于什么让你认为你正在经营肿瘤学业务,一家小型创业公司,你要杀了它,它可能有点苛刻。但是你要杀了它,它非常接近。最终,它将失去继续执行的所有能力。

我想我们已经一遍又一遍地证明了我们的经验 - 我们了解如何经营这些业务。我们将以维护Allergan名称的方式建立美学业务,它将基本上作为独立平台运行。可以把它想象成AbbVie的一个子目标,我们的目标是保留所有Allergan,尽可能多的人才,我们认为这将是非常成功的。但我们的目标是保留医学美学方面的人才,以确保在我们前进的过程中,这项业务不会造成破坏。而且我相信我们能够做到这一点。

我不能说我们有 - 在第二个问题上,我不能说我们有一个策略,我们将越来越关注现金支付。显然,我们将努力尽快实现医学美学业务。我们将相应地为其提供资金,以便能够提高性能水平。显然,随着它的增长,它将成为一个更大的部分。但我不希望我们出去做其他会增加业务现金支付部分的交易。我们显然将通过额外的活动为医学美学业务提供支持。他们擅长通过收购来增加产品。因此,对于业务的这一部分,我们显然会这样做。但是,在医学审美范围之外,不会专注于寻找其他现金支付业务,我认为这是你的问题所在。

Liz Shea

Thanks, Greg. That concludes today's conference call. If you'd like to listen to a replay of the call, please visit our website at investors.abbvie.com. Thanks again for joining us.

谢谢,格雷格。 今天的电话会议结束了。 如果您想收听电话会议的重播,请访问我们的网站investor.abbvie.com。 再次感谢您加入我们。

会议主持员

Thanks and that does conclude today's conference. At this time, you may disconnect your lines. Thank you.

谢谢,这确实结束了今天的会议。 此时,您可以断开线路。 谢谢。

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