KB Home (KBH) 首席执行官 Jeff Mezger 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年06月28日 · 71 次阅读 · KB Home

KB Home (NYSE:KBH) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call June 26, 2019 5:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Jill Peters - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeff Mezger - Chairman, President & Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Kaminski - Executive Vice Pressident & Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Alan Ratner - Zelman & Associates
Truman Patterson - Wells Fargo
Nishu Sood - Deutsche Bank
Christina Chiu - Barclays
Stephen Kim - Evercore ISI
Mike Dahl - RBC Capital Markets
John Lovallo - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Mike Rehaut - JPMorgan
Scott Schrier - Citi

KB Home(纽约证券交易所代码:[KBH])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年6月26日美国东部时间下午5:00

公司参与者

Jill Peters - 投资者关系高级副总裁

Jeff Mezger - 董事长,总裁兼首席执行官

Jeff Kaminski - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官

电话会议参加者

Alan Ratner - Zelman&Associates

杜鲁门帕特森 - 富国银行

Nishu Sood - 德意志银行

Christina Chiu - 巴克莱

Stephen Kim - Evercore ISI

Mike Dahl - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场

John Lovallo - 美国银行美林证券

Mike Rehaut - 摩根大通

Scott Schrier - 花旗

会议主持员

Good afternoon. My name is Devon and I will be your conference operator today. I would like to welcome everyone to KB Home 2019 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the company’s opening remarks; we will open the line for questions. Today's conference call is being recorded and will be available for replay at the company's website, kbhome.com, through July 26.
Now, I will like to turn the call over to Jill Peters, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Jill, thank you. You may begin.

下午好。 我的名字是Devon,今天我将成为您的会议运营商。 我想欢迎大家参加KB Home 2019第二季度收益电话会议。 此时,所有参与者线路都处于只听模式。 继公司开幕致辞之后; 我们将打开问题的界限。 今天的电话会议正在录制,并将于7月26日在公司网站kbhome.com上重播。

现在,我想转达投资者关系高级副总裁Jill Peters的电话。 吉尔,谢谢。 你可以开始吧。

吉尔彼得斯

Thank you, Devon. Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us today to review our results for the second quarter of fiscal 2019. With me are Jeff Mezger, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Kaminski, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Matt Mandino, Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; Bill Hollinger, Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer; and Thad Johnson, Senior Vice President and Treasurer.
Before we begin, let me note that during this call, items will be discussed that are considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future results and the company does not undertake any obligation to update them.
Due to factors outside of the company's control, including those detailed in today's press release and in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, actual results could be materially different from those stated or implied in the forward-looking statements.
In addition, a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures referenced during today's discussion to their most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in today's press release and/or on the Investors Relations page of our website at kbhome.com.
And with that, I will turn the call over the Jeff Mezger.

谢谢你,德文。大家下午好,感谢您今天加入我们,审查2019财年第二季度的业绩。我是Jeff Mezger,董事长,总裁兼首席执行官; Jeff Kaminski,执行副总裁兼首席财务官; Matt Mandino,执行副总裁兼首席运营官; Bill Hollinger,高级副总裁兼首席会计官;和Thad Johnson,高级副总裁兼财务主管。

在我们开始之前,请允许我注意,在本次电话会议中,将讨论的项目被认为是1995年“私人证券诉讼改革法案”界定的前瞻性陈述。这些陈述不是未来结果的保证,公司也不承担任何更新它们的义务。

由于公司无法控制的因素,包括今天新闻稿和向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件中详述的因素,实际结果可能与前瞻性声明中所述或暗示的结果有重大差异。

此外,可以在今天的新闻稿和/或我们网站kbhome.com的投资者关系页面上找到在今天的讨论中引用的非GAAP指标与其最直接可比的GAAP指标的对账。

有了这个,我将把这个电话转过Jeff Mezger。

杰夫梅兹格

Thank you, Jill, and good afternoon. We continued to deliver solid performance in the second quarter under our Returns-Focused Growth Plan, which prioritizes the profitable growth of our business and greater productivity and efficiency of our assets. Our execution on this plan has been consistent and strong since we launched it in 2016 and has produced measurable results.
We have realized significant growth in our community count this year, which fueled a 15% year-over-year increase in our second quarter net orders. In addition, by substantially reducing our debt while growing our active inventory, we expect to lower our annual interest incurred in 2019 by more than $40 million since the plan was introduced.
In the second quarter, we accelerated our community count growth by successfully opening 43 new communities, bringing our total openings over the last 12 months to 123, which had us well positioned for the spring selling season. Our second quarter average community count was up 17% from a year ago, reflecting increases in all four regions, with three of our regions producing greater than 20% growth.
We expect to continue growing our average community count year-over-year over the next two quarters and remain committed to realizing a 10% to 15% increase for the year, which sets us up well as we look ahead to 2020. We generated just over $1 billion in total revenues in the second quarter and diluted earnings per share of $0.51.
Our housing gross profit margin, excluding the inventory-related charges, held even with our 2019 first quarter at 17.6%. While this result was lower year-over-year, we are encouraged by the composition of our $2.2 billion backlog, which we expect to drive gross margin improvement over the balance of the year, as Jeff will share with you shortly.
From a macro perspective, the combination of a decline in mortgage interest rates, along with steady economic growth, high consumer confidence and favorable demographics in particular household formation, continues to provide a healthy backdrop for our industry. In addition, the buyer pause that the industry experienced in the latter part of 2018 has generally moderated home prices, which is positive for the market, given the significant levels of price appreciation over the past few years.
On the other side of the equation, supply remains insufficient to meet demand, stemming from the under production of new homes over multiple years and the shortage of existing home inventory, particularly at the price points where we operate. These factors contributed to the solid market conditions that we saw in the early weeks of March, which we spoke of on our last earnings conference call.
On a per-community basis, net orders were a healthy 5.4 per month, which closely tracked the prior year quarter's robust absorption pace. Our business gained momentum as the second quarter progressed, fueled in large part by the significant number of new community openings that I discussed earlier, resulting in a 15% year-over-year increase in net orders.

谢谢,吉尔,下午好。我们继续在第二季度以我们的回报为重点的增长计划提供可靠的业绩,该计划优先考虑我们业务的盈利增长以及我们资产的更高生产力和效率。自2016年推出以来,我们对该计划的执行始终如一,并取得了可观的成果。

今年我们的社区数量实现了显着增长,推动了第二季度净订单同比增长15%。此外,通过大幅减少我们的债务,同时增加我们的活跃库存,我们预计自该计划推出以来,我们将2019年的年度利息减少超过4,000万美元。

在第二季度,我们通过成功开放43个新社区来加速社区数量增长,使我们在过去12个月内的总开放数达到123个,这使我们在春季销售季节处于有利位置。我们的第二季度平均社区数量比一年前增加了17%,反映了所有四个地区的增长,其中三个地区的增长率超过20%。

我们预计在接下来的两个季度中我们将继续增加我们的平均社区数量,并继续致力于实现今年10%至15%的增长,这使我们在2020年前景良好。我们刚刚生成第二季度总收入超过10亿美元,每股摊薄收益为0.51美元。

我们的房屋毛利率(不包括与库存相关的费用)与2019年第一季度的17.6%持平。虽然这一结果同比下降,但我们对22亿美元积压的构成感到鼓舞,我们预计这将推动毛利率在今年余额中有所改善,因为杰夫将很快与您分享。

从宏观角度来看,抵押贷款利率下降,稳定的经济增长,高消费者信心以及特定家庭形成的有利人口统计数据的结合,继续为我们的行业提供一个健康的背景。此外,由于过去几年价格大幅上涨,买方暂停了2018年下半年的行业经常调节房价,这对市场有利。

另一方面,供应仍然不足以满足需求,原因是多年来新房产量不足以及现有房屋库存短缺,特别是在我们经营的价格点。这些因素促成了我们在3月初几周看到的稳固的市场状况,我们在上次收益电话会议上谈到了这一点。

在每个社区的基础上,净订单每月健康5.4,这密切跟踪了去年同期强劲的吸收速度。随着第二季度的进展,我们的业务增长势头强劲,这在很大程度上得益于我之前讨论过的大量新社区空缺,导致净订单同比增长15%。

Each of our four regions produced a double-digit increase in the second quarter. Net order value expanded by 13% in the second quarter to $1.5 billion. This result help bolster our backlog value to $2.2 billion, as I mentioned earlier. In terms of units, our backlog in the second quarter was up about 2% year-over-year.
Moving on to the regional commentary, our net orders were up 18% in our West Coast region, driven by an increase in average community count and a healthy pace of 5.7 net orders per community per month, compared to 6.2 net orders in the year-earlier quarter.
In Northern and Central California, we experienced generally solid market conditions. In the Bay Area, we expanded our average community count, contributing to net order growth of more than 20%, while achieving an absorption pace slightly ahead of our company average. As we are now successfully rebuilding our Bay Area community count, the division's order result supports our expectation for a sequentially higher company ASP and gross margin in the second half of this year.
In Southern California, our net order trends improved. In both our Los Angeles and Inland Empire divisions net orders increased by roughly 25%, driven by community count growth in areas with healthy market conditions. We view these results positively, as we have been monitoring our Inland Empire business for any ripple effect from conditions along the coast.
Within our coastal business, the smallest of our California divisions in terms of units, while market conditions are softer than the Inland areas, the net order decline that we experienced was primarily due to the sellout of one community in San Diego that alone produced nearly 30% of this division's net orders in our 2018 second quarter.
Finally, in April, we were pleased to successfully open our first community in Seattle in Pierce County, a commuter market southeast of the city. When we started up our Seattle business, we identified an opportunity to offer affordable product in the high $300,000 to $400,000 price range, targeting first-time and first move-up buyers.
Our first community, Falling Water, is aligned with this market approach with an ASP starting at $385,000, as compared to a median new home price of $620,000 and a median existing home price of $465,000 across the three-county metro Seattle area. We expect deliveries from this community by the end of the year and look forward to our second community in Seattle opening later this year as well.
In our Central region, our largest in terms of units, net orders increased 11%, driven by our Houston and Colorado divisions. In Houston, the combination of a strong economy, population growth and our positioning at affordable price points in desirable areas, resulted in the highest quarterly net sales for this division in over a decade.
The most active sales volume price band in Houston is between $200,000 and $300,000 and with our ASP of roughly $245,000, we are operating in the sweet spot of this market.

我们四个地区的每个地区在第二季度都实现了两位数的增长。净订单价值在第二季度增长了13%,达到15亿美元。正如我前面提到的,这一结果有助于将我们的积压价值提高到22亿美元。就单位而言,第二季度我们的积压量同比增长约2%。

继续进行区域评论,我们在西海岸地区的净订单增长了18%,这得益于平均社区数量的增加和每个社区每月5.7净订单的健康步伐,而今年的净订单为6.2。上一季度。

在加利福尼亚州北部和中部,我们经历了稳固的市场条件。在湾区,我们扩大了平均社区数量,使净订单增长超过20%,同时实现了略高于公司平均水平的吸收速度。由于我们现在成功重建了我们的湾区社区数量,该部门的订单结果支持了我们对今年下半年公司平均售价和毛利率连续上升的预期。

在南加州,我们的净订单趋势有所改善。在我们的洛杉矶和内陆帝国部门,由于市场条件健康的社区数量增长,净订单增加了大约25%。我们积极地看待这些结果,因为我们一直在监控我们的内陆帝国业务,因为沿海地区的情况会产生任何连锁反应。

在我们的沿海业务中,我们加利福尼亚州最小的部门单位,而市场条件比内陆地区更软,我们经历的净订单下降主要是由于圣地亚哥的一个社区的出售仅产生了近30个我们2018年第二季度该部门净订单的百分比。

最后,在4月份,我们很高兴能够成功在西雅图的皮尔斯县开设我们的第一个社区,这是该市东南部的通勤市场。当我们启动西雅图业务时,我们发现有机会以高达$ 300,000至$ 400,000的价格提供价格合理的产品,定位为首次和首次购买的买家。

我们的第一个社区,Falling Water,与这种市场方法保持一致,平均销售价格为385,000美元,相比之下,三县西雅图地区的新房价中位数为620,000美元,现有房屋价格中位数为465,000美元。我们希望在今年年底之前从这个社区交付,并期待我们在西雅图的第二个社区也将在今年晚些时候开放。

在我们的中部地区,我们最大的单位,净订单增加了11%,由休斯顿和科罗拉多州的部门推动。在休斯顿,强劲的经济,人口增长和我们在理想地区以可承受的价格点定位的结合,导致该部门十多年来的季度净销售额最高。

休斯顿最活跃的销售价格区间在200,000美元到300,000美元之间,我们的平均售价约为245,000美元,我们正在这个市场的最佳位置运营。

Elsewhere in the region, our Colorado division opened five new communities in the second quarter. The openings were well received in this supply constrained market contributing to a 45% increase in net orders.
Demand in the Denver housing market is strong driven by positive in-migration and job growth. We are well positioned to meet this demand with our ASP of approximately $485,000 in between, the median new home price of $525,000, a median resale price of $425,000 on point with our pricing strategy providing affordable product in attractive areas.
In addition to these specific market updates, I would also like to comment on KBHS, our mortgage joint venture with Stearns Lending. In the two years since becoming fully operational KBHS has provided high-quality level of service to our home buyers helping to drive our customer satisfaction scores higher. In addition, the JV's consistent performance has supported our divisions as well, enabling more predictability in deliveries and contributing to our ability to successfully deliver homes to our buyers on time.
With a capture rate of nearly 70% in the second quarter, growing significantly from 52% in the year-ago quarter and our expectation for continued enhanced execution from KBHS, we anticipate a meaningful increase in the income contribution from our JV in the second half of this year.
In closing, with a backlog value of $2.2 billion, and a considerable number of new communities still to open this year, we are well positioned to deliver year-over-year growth in revenue and profitability by the fourth quarter of this year, and for momentum entering 2020.
With strong execution on our core business strategy to increase our scale, we have achieved a top five market share ranking in just over 70% of our divisions as compared to roughly 50% when we launched our plan. We have a business model with our build-to-order approach that allows us the flexibility to move with demand and react quickly to market changes. This differentiates us and contributes to our growing share of first-time buyers, which increased to 55% of our business in the second quarter. We are poised for a strong finish to 2019 and look forward to updating you on our progress moving forward.
With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff for the financial review. Jeff?

在该地区的其他地方,我们的科罗拉多州分部在第二季度开设了五个新社区。在这个供应受限的市场中,这些开盘受到了好评,净订单增加了45%。

由于积极的移民和就业增长,丹佛住房市场的需求强劲。我们有能力满足这一需求,我们的平均售价约为485,000美元,新房价中位数为525,000美元,中位转售价格为425,000美元,我们的定价策略在有吸引力的地区提供价格合理的产品。

除了这些特定的市场更新,我还想对我们与Stearns Lending的抵押合资企业KBHS发表评论。自投入全面运营以来的两年中,KBHS为我们的购房者提供了高质量的服务,帮助提高客户满意度。此外,合资公司的一贯表现也为我们的部门提供了支持,使交付更具可预测性,并有助于我们按时成功地为买家提供房屋。

第二季度的捕获率接近70%,从去年同期的52%大幅增长以及我们对KBHS持续增强执行的预期,我们预计下半年合资公司的收入贡献将有意义地增加今年。

最后,积压值为22亿美元,并且今年还有相当数量的新社区开放,我们有能力在今年第四季度实现收入和盈利能力同比增长,进入2020年的势头。

凭借我们核心业务战略的强大执行力以扩大我们的规模,我们在超过70%的部门中取得了前五大市场份额排名,相比之下,当我们启动计划时,这一比例约为50%。我们的业务模式采用按订单生产的方法,使我们能够灵活地随需求而变化,并对市场变化做出快速反应。这使我们与众不同,并有助于我们在首次购买者中所占的份额不断增加,这在第二季度增长至我们业务的55%。我们准备在2019年结束,并期待着向您介绍我们未来的进展。

有了这个,我现在将电话转给杰夫进行财务审查。杰夫?

杰夫卡明斯基

Thank you, Jeff, and good afternoon everyone. I will now provide highlights of our financial results for the second quarter as well as our outlook for the third quarter and full year 2019. We are very pleased with our second quarter performance, particularly our strong backlog conversion, which helped drive housing revenues, and the solid absorption pace in community count growth that led to a 15% year-over-year increase in net orders. We believe we are well positioned for a strong second half of the year and expect to generate improvements in virtually all our key financial metrics.
In the second quarter, our housing revenues were just over $1 billion as compared to $1.1 billion in the prior year period reflecting an 8% decrease in our overall average selling price that was partially offset by a 2% increase in the number of homes delivered. The primary drivers of the overall housing revenue decrease were a lower proportion of total deliveries from our West Coast region and a decline in our West Coast region average selling price that stem from both a mix shift towards deliveries in lower price inland markets, and the absence of certain communities with high average selling prices that closed out in prior quarters.
The 2,768 homes we delivered in the quarter represented a backlog conversion rate of 60%. This strong performance reflected several factors including a sequential and year-over-year reduction in construction cycle time, an increase in closings financed by our mortgage joint venture, and a higher percentage of standing inventory that was both sold and closed within the quarter.
We ended the second quarter with over 5,900 homes in backlog, an increase of 2% versus the prior year. Our ending backlog value was $2.17 billion as compared to the year-earlier level of $2.24 billion, which represented our highest second quarter backlog value in 11 years.
Considering the quarter-end backlog and expected future net orders, we currently anticipate third quarter housing revenues in a range of $1.1 billion to $1.18 billion. For the full year, we believe our housing revenues will range from $4.45 billion to $4.6 billion.
In the second quarter, our overall average selling price of homes delivered decreased 8% year-over-year to approximately $368,000 due to the impact from our West Coast region that I previously mentioned and a mix shift in our Central region with the lower proportion of deliveries from our Colorado operations. We believe the expected increase mix of West Coast region deliveries driven by the successful rebuilding of our California community count will result in higher average selling prices in the second half of the year.
For the 2019 third quarter, we are projecting an overall average selling price in the range of $395,000 to $400,000 and believe our ASP for the full year will be in a range of $385,000 to $395,000. Homebuilding operating income decreased from the year-earlier quarter to $52 million or 5.1% of revenues. Excluding inventory-related charges of $4.3 million in the quarter and $6.5 million in the year-earlier quarter, this metric was 5.5% compared to 7.3%.

谢谢杰夫,大家下午好。我现在将提供第二季度财务业绩的亮点,以及我们对第三季度和2019年全年的展望。我们对第二季度业绩非常满意,特别是我们强劲的积压转换,这有助于推动住房收入,以及社区数量增长的坚实吸收速度导致净订单同比增长15%。我们相信,我们已准备好迎接今年下半年的强劲增长,并期望在几乎所有关键财务指标方面取得进步。

在第二季度,我们的住房收入刚刚超过10亿美元,而去年同期为11亿美元,反映出我们的整体平均销售价格下降了8%,部分被交付房屋数量增加2%所抵消。整体住房收入减少的主要驱动因素是西海岸地区交付总量的比例较低,以及西海岸地区平均销售价格的下降,这是由于内陆市场价格较低的交付转移以及缺货平均售价高的某些社区在前几个季度结束。

我们在本季度交付的2,768套房屋的积压转换率为60%。这一强劲表现反映了多个因素,包括建筑周期时间的连续和逐年减少,我们的抵押合资企业融资的关闭增加,以及在本季度内销售和关闭的常备库存的百分比更高。

我们在第二季度结束时积压了超过5,900个家庭,比去年增加了2%。我们的结尾积压价值为21.7亿美元,而去年同期的22.4亿美元是11年来第二季度最高的积压值。

考虑到季末积压和预期的未来净订单,我们目前预计第三季度的住房收入将在11亿美元至11.8亿美元之间。全年,我们认为我们的住房收入将在44.5亿美元至46亿美元之间。

在第二季度,我们的房屋总体平均售价同比下降8%至约368,000美元,这是由于我之前提及的西海岸地区的影响以及我们中部地区的比例变化较低从科罗拉多州的运营中交付。我们认为,由于我们加利福尼亚州社区的成功重建,西海岸地区交付的预期增长组合将导致下半年的平均销售价格上涨。

对于2019年第三季度,我们预计整体平均售价在395,000美元至400,000美元之间,并且相信我们全年的平均销售价格将在385,000美元至395,000美元之间。住宅建筑营业收入较上年同期减少至5200万美元,占收入的5.1%。不计入本季度与库存相关的430万美元和上年同期的650万美元,该指标为5.5%,而7.3%则为5.5%。

For the third quarter, we expect our homebuilding operating income margin excluding the impact of any inventory-related charges will be in the range of 6.4% to 7.0%. For the full year 2019, we expect this metric to be in the range of 6.7% to 7.3%. Our housing gross profit margin for the second quarter was 17.2% compared to 17.1% for the prior year period. Excluding inventory-related charges, our gross margin for the quarter was 17.6% compared to 17.7% for the 2018 second quarter.
The current year metric reflected favorable impacts from lower amortization of capitalized interest as well as the change in the classification of certain model complex cost, due to our adoption of the new revenue accounting standard ASC 606. These favorable impacts were offset by pricing pressure on fourth quarter and first quarter orders, due to weaker marketing conditions during those periods, the effect of certain high ASP and high margin West Coast communities, having closed out in previous quarters and reduced operating leverage due to lower housing revenues and higher fixed community level expenses supporting community count growth.
Our adjusted housing gross profit margin, which excludes inventory-related charges as well as the amortization of previously capitalized interest, was 21.3% for the second quarter compared to 22.2% for the same period in 2018. Assuming no inventory-related charges, we expect the sequential increase in our third quarter housing gross profit margin to a range of 17.9% to 18.5% and further improvement in the fourth quarter. Considering this expected favorable trend, we believe our full year housing gross profit margin excluding inventory-related charges will be within the same range of 17.9% to 18.5%.
Our selling, general and administrative expense ratio of 12.1% for the quarter was up as compared to the 2018 second quarter record low ratio of 10.4%. The increase mainly reflected the ASC 606 impact mentioned earlier, reduced operating leverage due to lower housing revenues, increased marketing expenses to support new community openings, and the impact of legal recoveries and favorable legal settlements in the prior year period.
As we continue to prioritize containment of overhead costs and expect to realize favorable leverage impacts from higher housing revenues in the second half of the year, we are forecasting our third quarter SG&A expense ratio to be in the range of 11.3% to 11.9% and our full year 2019 ratio to be in the range of 11.0% to 11.6%.
Income tax expense for the quarter was $9.3 million, which reflected $5.2 million of favorable impacts from federal energy tax credits and benefits from stock-based compensation. Without these impacts, the effective tax rate for the quarter would have approximated 26%. We expect our effective tax rate for the remaining quarters of 2019 to be approximately 26%, excluding potential impacts from stock-based compensation.
Overall, we reported net income for the second quarter of $47.5 million, or $0.51 per diluted share. For modeling purposes, diluted earnings per share for the remaining quarters of 2019 should be calculated using approximately 92.5 million shares, which reflects the 8.4 million reduction in our diluted share count due to first quarter repayment of our convertible senior notes. Approximately 93.5 million shares should be used for the full year calculation, representing a year-over-year decrease of 7%.

对于第三季度,我们预计不包括任何与库存相关费用影响的住宅建筑营业利润率将在6.4%至7.0%之间。对于2019年全年,我们预计该指标将在6.7%至7.3%的范围内。我们第二季度的房屋毛利率为17.2%,而去年同期为17.1%。不计与库存相关的费用,我们的季度毛利率为17.6%,而2018年第二季度为17.7%。

由于我们采用了新的收入会计准则ASC 606,当前年度指标反映了资本化利息摊销较低以及某些模型复杂成本分类变化的有利影响。这些有利影响被第四个定价压力所抵消。季度和第一季度订单,由于这些时期的营销条件较差,某些高平均售价和高利润的西海岸社区的影响,在前几个季度已经关闭,并且由于住房收入减少和固定社区层面支出的增加而降低了运营杠杆社区数量增长。

我们调整后的住房毛利率(不包括与库存相关的费用以及先前资本化利息的摊销)在第二季度为21.3%,而2018年同期为22.2%。假设没有与库存相关的费用,我们预计我们第三季度房屋毛利率环比增长17.9%至18.5%,第四季度进一步改善。考虑到这一预期的有利趋势,我们认为不包括库存相关费用的全年房屋毛利率将在17.9%至18.5%的相同范围内。

本季度我们的销售,一般和管理费用比率为12.1%,而2018年第二季度的创纪录低利率为10.4%。这一增长主要反映了前面提到的ASC 606影响,由于住房收入减少导致的经营杠杆减少,支持新社区开放的营销费用增加,以及上一年度法律追偿和有利的法律​​和解的影响。

由于我们继续优先考虑管理间接费用,并期望在下半年实现较高的住房收入带来有利的杠杆影响,我们预计第三季度的SG&A费用率将在11.3%至11.9%的范围内。全年2019年的比例在11.0%至11.6%之间。

本季度的所得税费用为930万美元,这反映了联邦能源税收抵免和股票补偿福利带来的520万美元的有利影响。如果没有这些影响,本季度的有效税率将接近26%。我们预计2019年剩余季度的有效税率约为26%,不包括股票薪酬的潜在影响。

总体而言,我们报告第二季度净收入为4750万美元,或每股摊薄收益0.51美元。出于建模目的,2019年剩余季度的每股摊薄盈利应使用约9250万股计算,这反映了由于第一季度偿还我们的可转换优先票据而导致的摊薄股数减少840万股。全年计算应使用约9350万股,同比减少7%。

Turning now to community count. Our second quarter average of 252 was up 17% from 215 in the same quarter of 2018. We ended the quarter with 255 communities, including 27 communities, or 11% that were previously classified as land held for future development. As we continue to successfully implement our strategy of monetizing these inactive assets, and with less than $200 million in this inventory category at quarter end, we expect to see further declines in the number of reactivated communities in the future.
We invested $399 million in land, land development and fees during the second quarter with $132 million of the total representing new land acquisitions. Over the past 12 months, in addition to the capital allocated to pay down debt, we deployed over $1.8 billion into land-related investments and opened 123 new communities as Jeff mentioned earlier.
On a year-over-year basis, we anticipate our third quarter average community count will increase in the range of 15% to 18% as compared to the 2018 third quarter. We still expect our average community count for the 2019 full year to be up approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year.
We ended the second quarter with total liquidity of approximately $600 million, including $179 million of cash and $419 million available under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Earlier in the year, we entered into a new $50 million unsecured letter of credit facility, separate from our existing $500 million unsecured revolving credit facility. Over time, we anticipate that most of our letters of credit will be transferred to or issued under this new line, which will free up capacity on the revolver and enhance liquidity.
At quarter end, our debt-to-capital ratio of 45.8% improved by 930 basis points as compared to the second quarter of last year, reflecting a $280 million increase in stockholders' equity combined with $500 million of debt reduction. As we continue to drive improvements in our credit metrics, we have tightened once again our leverage objective from a 35% to 45% net debt-to-capital target to a debt-to-capital ratio within that same range.
While our quarter-end ratio was just above the upper limit of our revised target range, we expect our debt-to-capital ratio to be within this range by year-end. Along with our return of capital to shareholders in the form of our quarterly dividend, our capital allocation priorities remain consistent with a focus on investment in land assets to grow the business and improve returns, and continue deleveraging the balance sheet to retain earnings growth enhanced by future debt reduction.
In summary, our second quarter highlights included a strong backlog conversion rate driving over $1 billion in housing revenues, a measurable increase in community count and a healthy sales pace per community contributing to a 15% year-over-year increase in net orders, a sequential expansion of our operating margin and a significant improvement in our debt-to-capital ratio to 45.8%. We believe that our expanded community count and solid quarter-end backlog value position us to achieve growth in housing revenues and improvement in both our gross and operating margins during the second half of this year.

现在转向社区统计。我们的第二季度平均值为252,比2018年同期的215增加了17%。我们在本季度结束时共有255个社区,包括27个社区,或者11%以前被归类为未来发展的土地。随着我们继续成功实施我们的这些非活跃资产货币化战略,以及季度末此类库存类别少于2亿美元,我们预计未来重新启动的社区数量将进一步下降。

我们在第二季度投资3.99亿美元用于土地,土地开发和费用,其中1.32亿美元用于新土地收购。在过去的12个月中,除了分配用于偿还债务的资本外,我们还花费了超过18亿美元用于与土地相关的投资,并开设了123个新社区,正如Jeff先前提到的那样。

与去年同期相比,我们预计第三季度的社区平均人数将比2018年第三季度增加15%至18%。我们仍然预计2019年全年的平均社区数量将同比增长约10%至15%。

我们在第二季度结束时的流动资金总额约为6亿美元,其中包括1.79亿美元的现金和4.19亿美元的无抵押循环信贷额度。今年早些时候,我们与现有的5亿美元无抵押循环信贷额度分开,成立了新的5000万美元无担保信用证。随着时间的推移,我们预计我们的大部分信用证将转移到或在这条新线下发行,这将释放左轮手枪的能力并增强流动性。

截至季末,我们的债务与资本比率为45.8%,与去年第二季度相比提高了930个基点,反映出股东权益增加2.8亿美元,再加上5亿美元的债务减免。随着我们继续推动信贷指标的改善,我们再次收紧杠杆目标,从35%至45%的净债务对资本目标到同一范围内的债务与资本比率。

虽然我们的季末比率刚好高于我们修订目标范围的上限,但我们预计到年底我们的债务与资本比率将在此范围内。随着我们以季度股息形式向股东返还资本,我们的资本配置优先事项仍然与关注土地资产投资以促进业务增长和提高回报一致,并继续去杠杆化资产负债表以保持盈利增长未来的债务减免。

总之,我们的第二季度亮点包括强劲的积压转换率,推动住房收入超过10亿美元,社区数量显着增加,每个社区的销售增长速度稳健,导致净订单同比增长15%,我们的经营利润率连续扩大,我们的债务与资本比率显着提高至45.8%。我们相信,我们扩大的社区数量和稳定的季末积压价值使我们能够实现住房收入的增长以及今年下半年的毛利率和营业利润率的改善。

We will now take your questions. Devon, please open the lines.

我们现在将回答您的问题。 德文,请打开线。

问答环节

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates. Please proceed with your questions.

谢谢。 此时,我们将进行问答环节。 [操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Alan Ratner与Zelman&Associates的合作。 请继续你的问题。

艾伦拉特纳

Hey, guys, good afternoon. Congrats, really great results. So, first question, I was hoping you might be able to talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the incentive environment. I think there's a lot of confusion out there right now on exactly what's going on. I mean, you have a few builders talking about incentives coming down, but it sounds like they're still at fairly elevated levels across the industry. At the same time, I look at your absorption numbers and they're extremely strong, and it would seem like you should have some pricing power at that type of a sales pace.
So do you have an ability to push price now? Or are you kind of being a little bit conservative there just given how many communities you're opening up? And just any general commentary you could have on that front would be great.

嘿,伙计们,大家下午好。 恭喜,真的很棒。 所以,第一个问题,我希望你能谈谈你在激励环境中看到的内容。 我认为现在对于正在发生的事情存在很多困惑。 我的意思是,你有一些建筑商正在谈论激励措施,但听起来他们仍然处于整个行业的相当高的水平。 与此同时,我看看你的吸收数字,它们非常强大,看起来你应该在这种类型的销售速度上有一些定价能力。

那你现在有能力推高价格吗? 或者你是否有点保守,只是给了你开放的社区? 而且你在这方面可以得到的任何一般性评论都会很棒。

杰夫梅兹格

So Alan thanks for the recognition on the quarter. As you know, our business model doesn't really focus much on incentives. We believe in offering the consumer the best value and price and then personalization in our Studios. So we don't have a heavy incentive business model. We did -- there is some closing cost we pay in certain communities where the buyers may not have the cash to close without it. I think in the quarter, our sales incentives were up 30 bps, was it Jeff? Up 30 bps sequentially, so it's not a big mover for us.
I think the markets are pretty rational. I do think overall the industry is backing off of their incentives or pushing price. And as we look at our communities, we did raise price during the quarter in the majority of our communities, so we were able to take some price, while holding the fairly strong absorption rate.

所以艾伦感谢本季度的表彰。 如您所知,我们的商业模式并未真正关注激励措施。 我们相信为消费者提供最佳价值和价格,然后在我们的工作室提供个性化服务。 所以我们没有一个沉重的激励商业模式。 我们做了 - 我们在某些社区支付了一些成交费用,如果没有它,买家可能没有现金可以关闭。 我认为在本季度,我们的销售激励措施增加了30个基点,是杰夫吗? 顺序上升30个基点,所以它对我们来说不是一个大动力。

我认为市场非常理性。 我认为整个行业正在退出他们的激励措施或推动价格。 当我们看看我们的社区时,我们确实在大多数社区中提高了价格,因此我们能够承担一定的价格,同时保持相当强的吸收率。

艾伦拉特纳

Great. And I assume that -- would that kind of continue through the quarter through May and into June? Or did you see kind of progressively that the pricing power improving through that period?

非常好。 我认为 - 这种情况会持续到整个五月到六月吗? 或者您是否逐渐看到定价能力在此期间有所改善?

杰夫梅兹格

Well, I don't want to talk June, because we're just closing the second quarter. But within our second quarter, I would say it was pretty consistent through the quarter. We manage each asset every week based on how our sales are going. And if we have an opportunity to take price, we'll take price. If the community where sales are a little softer, we won't take price. I would say it was fairly consistent through the quarter. As we shared in our prepared remarks, we did see our sales strengthening sequentially from March to April to May.

好吧,我不想谈六月,因为我们刚刚关闭第二季度。 但在我们的第二季度内,我会说整个季度都非常稳定。 我们每周根据销售情况管理每项资产。 如果我们有机会接受价格,我们将采取价格。 如果销售有点软的社区,我们将不会采取价格。 我会说这个季度相当一致。 正如我们在准备好的评论中所说的那样,我们确实看到我们的销售从3月到4月到5月顺序增强。

艾伦拉特纳

Got it. That's very helpful. Second question if I could just for Jeff K. Thank you for the updated targets on the leverage and the goals there. You guys have been incredibly opportunistic through this cycle with buybacks especially when your stock is seemingly disconnected with reality. And it would seem like, we're kind of entering one of those periods right now, stocks back below book value and in the face of what I perceive to be extremely strong results. So can you talk about a little bit just the willingness or the opportunity there to maybe deviate a little bit from that target? If the stock remains at these low levels for an extended period of time, would you be willing to do a similar buyback like you've done in the past?

得到它了。 这非常有帮助。 第二个问题,如果我可以只为Jeff K.感谢您对杠杆和目标的更新目标。 你们在回购过程中一直非常机会主义,特别是当你的股票看似与现实脱节时。 而且看起来,我们现在正在进入其中一个时期,股价低于账面价值,面对我认为非常强劲的结果。 那么你能谈谈一点意愿或机会可能偏离目标吗? 如果股票在较长时间内保持在这些低水平,您是否愿意像过去那样做类似的回购?

杰夫卡明斯基

Right. Well, let's first talk about the target level. I mean, it's a pretty wide range, right? It's 35% to 45%. We're just above the range right now at the end of the second quarter. And with just retained earnings growth alone by the end of the year, we could clearly see that to be well within it. It is a wide range for a reason. It's there to allow us flexibility on capital allocation decisions as we go forward due to market conditions. But as you know, I think, you're using the right words with our stock buybacks in the past. They have been opportunistic buybacks. They're not -- it's not a scheduled program at this point. We're still focused on our two main capital priorities, capital allocation priorities of growing the business and improving our returns as well as getting the leverage in place. But we've been opportunistic in the past and with fairly modest buybacks at certain points in time and I'd say we'd still be open to that, but no prediction of where we're going with it at this point.

对。好吧,让我们先谈谈目标水平。我的意思是,这是一个非常广泛的范围,对吗?这是35%至45%。我们现在正处于第二季度末的范围之上。仅仅在年底之前保留了收益增长,我们可以清楚地看到它在其中。这是一个广泛的原因。由于市场条件的原因,它可以让我们在资本分配决策方面具有灵活性。但是如你所知,我认为,你过去使用正确的单词和我们的股票回购。他们一直是机会主义的回购。他们不是 - 现在不是预定的计划。我们仍然专注于我们的两个主要资本优先事项,即增加业务的资本分配优先级,提高我们的回报以及实现杠杆作用。但是我们过去一直是机会主义者,并且在某些时间点进行了相当温和的回购,我会说我们仍然对此持开放态度,但是目前还没有预测到我们的目标。

艾伦拉特纳

Great. And if I could just go back real quickly, just to clarify something that Jeff M. said on the incentives, I just want to clarify it. I think you mentioned incentives were up. I assume that's on closings, not on orders, so a little bit of a backward-looking data point there.

非常好。 如果我能够快速回到现实状态,只是为了澄清Jeff M.对激励措施所说的话,我只想澄清一下。 我想你提到激励措施了。 我认为这是关闭,而不是订单,所以那里有一些向后看的数据点。

杰夫梅兹格

Correct.

正确。

艾伦拉特纳

Okay, got it. Thanks guys, good luck.

好,知道了。 谢谢你们,祝你好运。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen East with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Stephen East和Wells Fargo。 请继续你的问题。

杜鲁门帕特森

Hi, good afternoon guys. This is actually Truman Patterson on for Stephen. Nice quarter. Thanks for clearing up the incentive commentary. I realize, you guys don't use a lot of incentives, but you said the pricing was up in the majority of communities. Is there any way you guys might be able to quantify the magnitude of that improvement from first quarter to second or maybe the percentage of the communities that you actually saw some base pricing power?

嗨,大家下午好。 这实际上是杜鲁门帕特森为斯蒂芬。 不错的季度。 感谢您清理激励评论。 我知道,你们不会使用很多激励措施,但是你们说大多数社区的价格都在提高。 您是否有任何方式可以量化从第一季度到第二季度的改善幅度,或者您实际看到一些基本定价能力的社区百分比?

杰夫梅兹格

Truman, it's very hard to quantify that because every asset is unique and it could be $1000 on a $500000 house or $5000 on a $300000 house. It just depends on how the community is pacing. And I think a part we're sharing, we expect margin improvement going forward and part of that is the price that we've been able to take.

杜鲁门很难量化这一点,因为每件资产都是独一无二的,50万美元的房子可能是1000美元,30万美元的房子可能是5000美元。 这取决于社区的节奏。 我认为我们正在共享的一部分,我们预计未来利润率会有所改善,部分原因是我们能够采取的价格。

杜鲁门帕特森

Okay. Okay. Thanks. That actuallysegues nice into my follow-up. Just a little bit more clarity on the gross margin ramp in the back half of 2019, it seems like a little bit of that is just a little bit better pricing if you will. But could you maybe walk us through the moving parts, because it seems like there's a pretty nice ramp in the back half of the year that hit your guidance, anyway you can just walk us through the moving parts to get investors comfortable?

好的。 好的。 谢谢。 这实际上很适合我的后续行动。 稍微清楚一点2019年后半期的毛利率上升,如果你愿意的话,似乎只是稍微好一些。 但是你可以带我们穿过活动部件,因为看起来在今年下半年有一个非常好的坡道可以达到你的指导,无论如何你可以带我们穿过活动部件让投资者感到舒服吗?

杰夫卡明斯基

Sure. Yes. There are several things that are coming into play there. I mean the one -- and we should never lose sight of the mix impact that you see in all this. We have a fairly large change in our portfolio. As I mentioned during the prepared remarks, I think Jeff mentioned as well, we opened 123 new communities since the end of the second quarter of last year. That was on a base of 210. So we ended the second quarter last year 210 communities opened 123 new and closeout of 78. So there's been a pretty large churn in communities that we're selling out of right now that will provide third and fourth quarter deliveries.
On top of that, when you look at some of the tailwinds that we have, we should continue to enjoy some year-over-year positives from the improvements that we've implemented in our capital structure. So the lower interest incurred is now coming through in lower amortized interest and we expect to see more of that as we go through the rest of the year. And the new community openings themselves should be providing a higher uptick in gross margins in a lot of those communities. And a lot of those communities are actually replacing reactivated communities at lower-margin levels. So we'll see some impact from that as well. So when you roll it all up, we do expect to see two quarters of sequential improvement and a full fiscal year that will be in that 17.9% to 18.5% range.

当然。是。有几件事在那里发挥作用。我的意思是那个 - 我们永远不要忘记你在所有这些中看到的混合影响。我们的投资组合发生了相当大的变化。正如我在准备好的讲话中提到的那样,我想杰夫也提到过,自去年第二季度末以来,我们开设了123个新社区。那是在210的基础上。所以我们去年第二季度结束了210个社区开了123个新的并且关闭了78个。所以我们现在卖出的社区有一个非常大的流失,将提供第三和第四季度交货。

最重要的是,当你看到我们所拥有的一些逆风时,我们应该继续从我们在资本结构中实施的改进中获得一些年度积极因素。所以较低的利息现在通过较低的摊销利息来实现,我们预计在我们度过今年剩余时间时会看到更多的利息。新社区的开放本身应该会在很多社区中提供更高的毛利率上升。而且很多社区实际上正在以较低利润水平取代重新启动的社区。所以我们也会看到一些影响。因此,当你全力以赴时,我们确实会看到两个季度的连续改进,整个财政年度将在17.9%到18.5%的范围内。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Nishu Sood with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Nishu Sood与德意志银行的关系。 请继续你的问题。

Nishu Sood

Thank you. The absorption pace was really strong in the second quarter. And at the end of March, you had anticipated that it would be similar to 2017, the second quarter in 2017 which would imply kind of continued down double-digit pace as you saw and the housing market was weaker. What changed so dramatically? I mean it implies a really serious ramp in April and May. Just wanted to understand the drivers of that where there successful grand openings? Jeff K, you were just mentioning how many communities you've opened. Did that boost the absorptions? What changed so dramatically from the end of March?

谢谢。 第二季度的吸收速度非常强劲。 而在3月底,你曾预计它将与2017年相似,2017年第二季度意味着你所看到的并且房地产市场疲软,这意味着继续下降两位数的速度。 变化如此剧烈? 我的意思是它意味着四月和五月的一个非常严重的匝道。 只是想了解成功隆重开幕的那些驱动因素? 杰夫K,你刚才提到你打开了多少社区。 这是否增加了吸收力? 从3月底开始变化如此剧烈?

杰夫梅兹格

Well Nishu, I can make a couple of comments and then turn it to Jeff. At the time we guided on the absorption pace, we were early in the spring, so it's still unclear to us how strong the spring would be. And we also had the variable of so many communities yet to open and you wonder if the communities are going to hit as expected and as planned. And for the most part the community openings hit and -- but I wouldn't just attribute it to that. Our overall sales rate around the system was pretty good. We target strategically to optimize our assets. We target about four a month on average. You have to do better than four in your strongest selling part of the year which is right now, so that 5.4 is right on track for us to optimize the asset. Anything else you want to add?

那么Nishu,我可以做几个评论,然后把它转给杰夫。 在我们引导吸收速度的时候,我们在春天的早期,所以我们仍然不清楚弹簧的强度。 我们还有许多社区的变量尚未开放,您想知道社区是否会按预期和计划进行。 在大多数情况下,社区开放受到打击 - 但我不仅仅将其归因于此。 我们整个系统的整体销售率非常好。 我们战略性地定位以优化我们的资产。 我们平均每月约四个目标。 在今年最强劲的销售部分中,您必须做得比四个好,因此5.4正在按计划优化资产。 还有其他想要添加的内容吗?

杰夫卡明斯基

Yes. Just, as we move through the quarter, we saw a pretty nice ramp. I mean when we were doing the call and at the time of the call, we were actually only up single digit over the prior year, so that was tracking about the 2017 consumption pace. And it just started picking up and getting progressively better as we enter the quarter. As Jeff mentioned, the new communities performed very well. And importantly, a large proportion of them opened when they were supposed to open and we had a lot of openings in the quarter. I think, we said last call that we were expecting to open over 35 and we ended up opening 43 new communities, so that helped us well. But I think just general market conditions, the way we had our product positioned, I think some of the changes we made in positioning and modifying the product has helped and we're right price point at the right place at the right time and we did really well on sales as a result.

是。 只是,当我们穿过这个季度时,我们看到了一个相当不错的坡道。 我的意思是,当我们打电话时,在通话时,我们实际上只比前一年增加了一位数,所以这跟踪了2017年的消费速度。 随着我们进入该季度,它刚刚开始变得越来越好。 正如杰夫所说,新社区的表现非常好。 而且重要的是,当它们应该打开时,它们中的很大一部分都打开了,而且我们在这个季度开了很多。 我想,我们上次打电话说我们期待开放超过35个,最后我们开了43个新社区,这对我们有好处。 但我认为只是一般的市场条件,我们对产品定位的方式,我认为我们在定位和修改产品方面所做的一些改变有所帮助,我们在正确的时间在合适的地点找到合适的价格,我们做到了 结果非常好的销售。

Nishu Sood

Got it. No that's really encouraging. And I think -- I think I know you're not commenting on June in particular. But as we think about some of the factors that you described, how should we think about the sustainability of some of those factors? Is there going to be a continued rate of new community openings which might impact it? Or say sequential trends, would you be able to expect them to continue? The third quarter of last year had a pretty nice absorption pace as well. So I guess what it boils down to is would you expect to be able to sustain or meet that rate in the third quarter.

得到它了。 不,这真的很鼓舞人心。 而且我认为 - 我想我知道你并不是特别关注6月。 但是,当我们考虑您描述的一些因素时,我们应该如何考虑其中一些因素的可持续性? 会不会继续推出可能会影响它的新社区空缺? 或者说顺序趋势,你能期望它们继续下去吗? 去年第三季度的吸收速度相当不错。 所以我猜它归结为什么,你期望能够在第三季度维持或达到这个速度。

杰夫梅兹格

Nishu, you're correct. We don't want to talk about the third quarter. My expectation is that we'll see the normal seasonal trends that you typically see from Q2 to Q3. We don't see any storm clouds on the horizon in the housing markets because there's no inventory, rates are low and people out there looking and buying. So I think you'll see the normal seasonal trends. We do have a lot of openings still coming at us here in the third quarter and we're hopeful that we produce nice sales numbers as the quarter rolls through.

Nishu,你说的没错。 我们不想谈论第三季度。 我的期望是,我们会看到您通常在第二季度到第三季度看到的正常季节性趋势。 我们看不到房地产市场上出现任何风暴云,因为没有库存,房价低,人们在那里寻找和购买。 所以我认为你会看到正常的季节性趋势。 我们确实在第三季度有很多空缺,我们希望在季度结束时我们能够提供良好的销售数据。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Matthew Bouley与巴克莱的合作。 请继续你的问题。

Christina Chiu

我们的下一个问题来自Budd Bugatch和Raymond James。 我们将继续与Matt McCall一起与Seaport Global合作。...

Hi, this is actually Christina Chiu on for Matt. Thanks for taking the question. And just looking at California you had an 18% order growth. And I was wondering if you could elaborate and provide more color on what caused the strength there and what you're expecting regionally in the back half of the year.

嗨,这实际上是Christina Chiu为Matt。 谢谢你提出这个问题。 只是看着加州,你的订单增长了18%。 而且我想知道你是否能够详细说明并提供更多的颜色来确定那里的力量以及你在今年下半年所期望的区域性。

杰夫梅兹格

Okay. Christina I can make a few comments and then Jeff can offer some more. As we shared in the prepared comments, Northern Cal overall did very well. And if you look at the inland areas I touched on our L.A. business Inland Empire, Central Valley, Sacramento, they're all very good right now.
In the Bay Area, we're bridging through this. We had a slowdown in community count as we've successfully sold through a lot of high-priced margin communities last year and it's taken some time to reload and get the new communities open. And that's what we started to see in our order results here in Q2. The expected openings hit.
And while it's higher priced on average than anywhere else we operate in the state it's still at a low price relative to the Bay Area and I think that's why you saw some strong sales. As we shared in the Bay Area, we're on the affordable side and there's such a shortage of housing up there. The price points are compelling.
When you move down to Southern Cal coastal is a small business for us. We want to grow it but it's still a little soft and it's the higher priced goods. The -- our view on that market is it held steady that sales rates are similar. We're not seeing pricing pressure. So, price is holding. It's just not as robust as the inland areas are. And because prices are holding, it's continuing to fuel a lot of demand out in the more affordable inland areas of Southern Cal. So, overall we're pleased with what we're seeing in California right now.

好的。克里斯蒂娜我可以发表一些评论然后杰夫可以提供更多。正如我们在准备好的评论中所分享的那样,北加州整体表现非常好。如果你看看内陆地区,我触及了我们的洛杉矶商业内陆帝国,中央山谷,萨克拉门托,他们现在都非常好。

在湾区,我们正在弥补这一点。由于我们去年通过很多高价保证金社区成功销售,我们的社区数量有所放缓,需要一些时间来重新加载并让新社区开放。这就是我们在第二季度开始在订单结果中看到的结果。预期的开局受到打击。

虽然它的平均价格高于我们在该州经营的任何其他地方,但相对于湾区而言,它仍然处于低价位,我认为这就是为什么你看到了一些强劲的销售。正如我们在湾区分享的那样,我们在经济实惠的一面,那里的房屋供不应求。价格点非常引人注目。

当你下到南加州沿海对我们来说是一个小生意。我们想要发展它但它仍然有点软,这是价格较高的商品。 - 我们对该市场的看法是稳定的,销售率相似。我们没有看到价格压力。所以,价格持有。它不像内陆地区那么强大。而且由于价格持续上涨,它继续为南卡罗来纳州更便宜的内陆地区带来大量需求。所以,总的来说,我们对目前在加利福尼亚州看到的情况感到满意。

Christina Chiu

我们的下一个问题来自Budd Bugatch和Raymond James。 我们将继续与Matt McCall一起与Seaport Global合作。...

Got it. Thanks. And then given your lot position at this stage of the year nearly 55,000 lots, are you comfortable highlighting at least directionally what community count growth could look like beyond 2019?

得到它了。 谢谢。 然后考虑到你今年这个阶段的近55,000手的位数,你是否愿意至少明确地突出显示2019年以后的社区数量增长情况?

杰夫卡明斯基

Not at this point. We really try not to get too far out ahead on things like that as far as guidance goes we're seeing obviously a really nice cadence this year. We've been very successful in opening communities.
And I'll say actually relatively on time at least within the same quarters is what we plan. And we're looking forward to the next couple of quarters of year-over-year growth. And we'll bubble up again later in the year and give you guys more guidance on what 2020 is going to look like.

不是在这一点上。 我们真的尽量不要在这样的事情上遥遥领先,就指导而言,我们今年看到的显然是一个非常好的节奏。 我们在开放社区方面非常成功。

而且我会说实际上至少在同一时间内相对准时就是我们的计划。 我们期待未来几个季度的同比增长。 我们将在今年晚些时候再次冒出来,并为你们提供更多有关2020年前景的指导。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Stephen Kim和Evercore ISI。 请继续你的问题。

Stephen Kim

Yes, thanks very much guys and thanks for all the color and good job in the quarter. Your guidance is really interesting obviously because it suggests a nice margin ramp and I want to talk about that for a sec.
One of the things we get a lot is people wondering whether there's a lag effect from rates. And as we think about that, your build-to-order business model which seemed to be well teed up to capture a drop in rates that happens maybe better than guys that do more spec building because the fellows who decide to sign on the dotted line and buy one of your homes little time goes by and all of a sudden they can afford more and they can cut back and maybe buy some more goodies to stick in the house.
And so I was curious as to just generally have you seen that? And is there any way that you can quantify the delta between the price that you initially sell the house at and what you ultimately are closing the house at? Is that a delta that you can monitor? Is that -- has it widened in the last few months? And do you project it to widen in the next several months?

是的,非常感谢大家,感谢本季度的所有色彩和好工作。你的指导显然非常有趣,因为它表明了一个很好的利润率,我想谈谈这一点。

我们得到的很多东西之一就是人们想知道费率是否存在滞后效应。当我们考虑到这一点时,您的按订单生产的商业模式似乎很好地捕捉到发生的费率下降可能比那些做更多规范建设的人更好,因为那些决定在虚线上签名的人并且在很短的时间内买下你的房子,突然之间他们可以买得起更多,他们可以减少并可能买更多的东西来坚持住。

所以我很好奇,一般来说你看到了吗?有没有什么方法可以量化您最初出售房屋的价格与最终关闭房屋的价格之间的差价?这是你可以监控的三角洲吗?那是 - 在过去的几个月里它扩大了吗?你是否计划在未来几个月内扩大规模?

杰夫卡明斯基

Well, Stephen, I guess, a few things just on the business model itself. We try to lock in all the option and choices before starting the house. And in fact we don't try to that's what we do do. So, we actually require the customers to lock in on their options before start.
So, you don't really see a creep in the price of the house once we're under construction. That's the one way we're able to really still build efficiently and not -- and stay away from the customization and more towards the personalization part of our strategy. So, that's one point.
The second I think when you look at what happens with the lower rate environment you certainly would see less cancellations. If rates were moving up, you could potentially see some cans coming out of the inability to still qualify for a loan at the new rate. Our cancellations ticked down three points or so this quarter which I think was an indication partially of that anyway so that's a good thing.
But I think overall the strength of the market and the build-to-order approach I think definitely has a lot to do with our strong sales base. And you see it almost every quarter with our pace versus the rest of the industry; we're always one of the highest sales paces in the quarter. And I think a lot of that's a result of customers like the ability to personalize their homes and they like the business model. So, I think that -- I'm not sure it gets right to the answer to your question or right to your question, but that's kind of what we're seeing right now in the market.

嗯,斯蒂芬,我想,只是商业模式本身的一些事情。我们试图在开始之前锁定所有选项和选择。事实上,我们不会尝试这样做。因此,我们实际上要求客户在开始之前锁定他们的选项。

所以,一旦我们正在建设中,你并没有真正看到房子的价格出现下降。这是我们能够真正有效地构建而不是 - 并远离定制,更多地转向我们战略的个性化部分的一种方式。所以,这是一点。

第二个我认为当你看到低利率环境会发生什么时,你肯定会看到更少的取消。如果利率上升,你可能会看到一些罐头无法以新的利率获得贷款。我们的取消在这个季度下降了大约三个点,我认为无论如何都是一个指示,所以这是一件好事。

但我认为总的来说,市场的实力和按订单生产的方法,我认为这与我们强大的销售基础有很大关系。而且你几乎每个季度都会看到我们的步伐与其他行业相比;我们一直是本季度销售额最高的一个。我认为很多客户的结果就是能够个性化他们的家庭,他们喜欢商业模式。所以,我认为 - 我不确定你的问题或问题的答案是否正确,但这就是我们现在在市场上所看到的。

Stephen Kim

Yes. I guess the only difference would be if there's maybe a couple of weeks or maybe a three-week lag between when you take the order and when you actually start the house. I imagine it's not too great a period of time though, so that probably isn't a huge factor.
Could you talk a little bit then about what you're seeing in your margins as we look -- I'm drilling into this very nice ramp you seem to be forecasting for your gross margin into the fourth quarter implied through your year in the 3Q guide you've given?
Can you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in terms of input costs that are informing your view on that -- your margin for the year relative to the 3Q margin that you talked about, particularly I'm thinking lumber. Are you anticipating that you're going to see a benefit all the way through your fourth quarter before the spike in lumber futures that we've just seen maybe weighs on your 1Q of next year? Just trying to get a sense for input cost inflation movements.

是。 我想唯一的区别是,如果您在接受订单和实际启动房屋之间可能有几周或三周的延迟。 我想这段时间不是太长,所以这可能不是一个很重要的因素。

你可以稍微谈谈你在我们看来你所看到的利润 - 我正在钻探这个非常好的坡道,你似乎预测到你在第三季度暗示的第四季度的毛利率 指导你给出了什么?

你能否谈谈你所看到的输入成本方面的内容,这些成本告诉你对此的看法 - 你相对于你所谈到的第三季度的年度保证金,特别是我在想木材。 您是否预计,在我们刚刚看到的木材期货价格飙升之前,您可能会在第四季度看到一直受益于明年第一季度的重量? 只是想了解投入成本通胀走势。

杰夫卡明斯基

Sure. Yes the input cost side is pretty good news for us. We just had our second consecutive quarter of decreases in the input cost. And we talked about it in a lot of conference calls in the past; we use an index approach to it. We think it's probably the cleanest way to show it where you're taking out factors like square footage differences and things like that. So, we'll index the house.
And we'll calculate what that indexed house will build for at a point in time and then we'll compare that index to the same house indexed at a later point in time. So, if you can compare end of the second quarter to end of the year, we're actually down 1.1% in our budget for that indexed house.
And I think where that's coming from is a couple factors. One certainly the lumber cost decreases have been there and have helped that and they've also helped to offset what we view as somewhat moderate increases in other input costs. And we think there's been some moderation due to the market pause in the fourth quarter and the first quarter. So, the one good part of the market pause is we felt that we've experienced some moderation in increases.
On a year-over-year basis, our largest decreases or advantages favorable to margin came in obviously to the lumber category. In the drywall category, net offset increases in a few of the other commodity categories like cement, roofing, and plumbing.
On a year-over-year basis we're actually also down, less than 1% down, but still down on a year-over-year basis. So, the input story -- the input cost story for us has been pretty favorable. Obviously, there's a few watch-outs. You have the whole tariff issue. That's a watch-out for us. And as you pointed out the increase in the lumber's futures is also a watch-out. But because we are in look-back pricing and we obviously crossed out the house at the point in time when we frame it, we do think there's still more favorability coming from lumber before any potential downside that we could experience by the end of the year depending what the market does.

当然。是的,投入成本方面对我们来说是个好消息。我们刚刚连续第二个季度的投入成本下降。我们过去在很多电话会议上讨论过它;我们使用索引方法。我们认为这可能是最简洁的方式来展示它,你正在采取像平方镜头差异和类似的事情。所以,我们将为房子编制索引。

我们将计算该索引房屋在某个时间点将构建的内容,然后我们将该索引与稍后索引的同一房屋进行比较。因此,如果您可以比较第二季度末到年底,我们的预算中实际上我们的指数下降了1.1%。

而且我认为它的来源是几个因素。当然,木材成本的降低肯定会有所帮助,并且它们也有助于抵消我们认为其他投入成本略微适度增长的情况。我们认为由于第四季度和第一季度的市场暂停,已经有所缓和。因此,市场暂停的一个很好的部分是我们觉得我们在增加中经历了一些缓和。

与去年同期相比,我们对利润率有利的最大跌幅或优势显然属于木材类别。在干式墙类别中,一些其他商品类别(如水泥,屋顶和管道)的净抵消增加。

与去年同期相比,我们实际上也下降了不到1%,但仍然同比下降。因此,输入故事 - 我们的输入成本故事非常有利。显然,有一些观察。你有整个关税问题。这是对我们的关注。正如你所指出的那样,木材期货的增加也是值得关注的。但是因为我们处于回顾定价状态,而且我们显然在我们构建它的时间点划掉了房子,我们确实认为在我们可以在年底之前遇到任何潜在的不利因素之前,木材仍然会有更多的好感度。取决于市场的作用。

会议主持员

Our next question comes of the line of Mike Dahl with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自于RBC Capital Markets的Mike Dahl。 请继续你的问题。

Mike Dahl

Hi, thanks for taking my questions and nice results. I wanted to start on the order side. And one of the things that you guys have been pretty vocal about and proactive about is kind of the shift to smaller floor plans and at least introducing smaller plan options into newer communities. So I wanted to ask if even anecdotally you can give us any update or color on, how those smaller floor plans are performing or performed through the quarter. Presumably to get this type of order number, it had to be fairly broad-based, but just wondering if you could give us anything specific on the newer plan options.

嗨,谢谢你提出我的问题和好结果。 我想从订单方面开始。 你们其中一个非常直言不讳的事情就是转向较小的平面图,至少将较小的计划选项引入新的社区。 所以我想问一下,即使是轶事,你是否可以给我们任何更新或颜色,这些较小的平面图如何在整个季度执行或执行。 据推测,要获得这种类型的订单号,它必须相当广泛,但只是想知道您是否可以就新的计划选项向我们提供任何具体信息。

杰夫梅兹格

Mike, as I shared in the comments, our sales were up double-digit in every region. So it definitely was broad-based in the strength of the sales. We've introduced smaller plans. We've modeled them in many locations. Coincident with that shift, we had a drop in interest rates. So I think it's tempered the need a little bit if you will. We are seeing with a lower advertised price that we're drawn in a bigger pool of buyers, where they're coming in and may not have thought they could afford it. And then they get in and once they understand what they qualified for they'll move to a little bit larger home, so it is helping to expand our marketing and create a bigger pool.
Our sales in the quarter on the unstarted homes, so our presale square footage ticked down just incrementally. It could be just a function of mix by market. So I wouldn't call it a trend yet and we're certainly monitoring it. So it's helped us from a marketing standpoint. But with the rate decline people will move up to the biggest home they can afford. And we are well positioned for when -- whenever rates do go back up we're already there.

迈克,正如我在评论中所说,我们的销售额在每个地区都达到了两位数。所以它绝对是广泛的销售实力。我们引入了较小的计划。我们已经在很多地方对它们进行了建模。与此相反,我们的利率下降。所以我认为,如果你愿意的话,这需要一点点。我们看到广告价格较低,我们被吸引到更大的买家群中,他们进来了,可能没想到他们买得起。然后他们进入,一旦他们了解他们有资格获得什么,他们将搬到更大的家,所以它有助于扩大我们的营销,并创建一个更大的池。

我们在这个季度的未开发房屋的销售,所以我们的预售平方英尺只是逐步下降。它可能只是市场混合的一个功能。所以我不会把它称为趋势,我们肯定会监控它。从营销的角度来看,这对我们有所帮助。但随着利率的下降,人们将会搬到他们能负担得起的最大房屋。而且我们处于有利位置 - 只要价格回升,我们就已经存在。

Mike Dahl

Right. Okay. Yes. Helpful and that makes sense. And then second question just around margins. And Jeff K. I think you kind of alluded to a couple of different things helping you to kind of bridge to the year-end an implied 4Q margin which makes sense, but I wanted to follow up and try to get a little more quantification of two of the issues. One, you've continued to benefit from the lower interest amortization, so any update on how to think about that delta as we move through the year? And then the second part, you mentioned reactivated communities that mix starting to kind of be reduced and help your margins by year-end. I thought of that as more of a 2020 occurrence. Can you just help us -- how much is that starting to help by the end of this year and how to think about that potential support as that mix continues to decline of the reactivated communities?

对。 好的。 是。 有帮助,这是有道理的。 然后第二个问题就在边缘附近。 而Jeff K.我认为你提到了几个不同的东西,帮助你在年底之间建立一个隐含的第四季度利润,这是有道理的,但我想跟进并尝试进一步量化 其中两个问题。 其中一个,您继续受益于较低的利息摊销,因此我们在全年都会考虑如何考虑这个三角洲的任何更新? 然后是第二部分,你提到了重新启动的社区,这些社区的混合开始减少,并在年底前帮助你获得利润。 我认为这更像是2020年的事件。 你能帮助我们吗 - 到今年年底开始提供多少帮助以及如何考虑这种潜在的支持,因为重新激活的社区的这种组合继续下降?

杰夫卡明斯基

Right. Okay, let's -- we'll take the interest amortization first, because that's probably the simpler and more straightforward. We talked about during last quarter's call that we expected year-over-year benefit in interest amortization of between 80 and 100 basis points per quarter for the full year. In the first quarter, we were up 100. This quarter we were 80. And we still expect to be within that same range the next two quarters, so 80 to 100 basis points per quarter year-over-year is still a good number.
On the reactivated communities, what you see there is, you definitely see a lag from the point in time when they enter community count or when the community count starts declining to when it's actually running through the revenues and impacting the overall gross margins. In the quarter -- in the second quarter, we really didn't see any benefit from the prior year, because we had a fairly high revenue number coming from reactivated communities, partially because of the strong sales that we saw relative to last year in those communities.
So it was pretty well even with the prior year. We do expect to see some incremental improvement by the fourth quarter as the count continues to decline. But I would say, you are correct in saying that most of that improvement we'll see yet in 2020, which will be nice, because there'll be another tailwind or a continued tailwind for us as we get into the next fiscal year.

对。好吧,让我们 - 我们首先考虑利息摊销,因为这可能更简单,更直接。我们在上一季度的电话会议上谈到,我们预计全年每季度利息摊销收益率为80至100个基点。在第一季度,我们上涨了100个。本季度我们是80个。我们仍然预计未来两个季度将在同一范围内,因此每季度80到100个基点仍然是一个很好的数字。

在重新启动的社区,你看到的是,你肯定会看到他们进入社区统计时或社区计数开始下降到实际运行收入并影响整体毛利率时的滞后时间。在本季度 - 第二季度,我们确实没有看到去年的任何好处,因为我们从重新启动的社区获得了相当高的收入,部分原因是我们看到相对于去年的强劲销售额那些社区。

所以即使在前一年也很好。随着计数持续下降,我们预计第四季度会有一些增量改善。但我要说的是,你说的是大部分的改善我们将在2020年看到,这是好的,因为在我们进入下一个财政年度时,我们会有另一个顺风或持续的顺风。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of John Lovallo with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自John Lovallo与美国银行美林公司的合作。 请继续你的问题。

John Lovallo

Hey, guys, thank you for fitting me in here. First question, Jeff K., you brought up tariffs. I'm just curious, it seems like to me that that would be a pretty small impact. I mean, I think one of your competitors just laid out something like $500 per home. I was wondering if you guys maybe had an estimate through List one, two, three and then maybe if -- on List four us as well?

嘿,伙计们,谢谢你让我适应我。 第一个问题,Jeff K.,你提出了关税。 我只是好奇,对我来说这似乎是一个非常小的影响。 我的意思是,我认为你的竞争对手之一只是为每个家庭提供500美元。 我想知道你们是否可能通过列表一,二,三,然后可能如果 - 在列表四我们也有估计?

杰夫卡明斯基

We -- I would say at this point, we're really not seeing any impact, any material impact at all on our cost. It may be being absorbed through the supply chain or we may be seeing certain increases here and there that are getting offset by others, but it hasn't been significant for us to even be all that focused on at this point.

我们 - 我想说,在这一点上,我们真的没有看到任何影响,对我们的成本产生任何重大影响。 它可能正在通过供应链被吸收,或者我们可能会看到其中某些增长被其他人所抵消,但对于我们来说,即使是在这一点上所关注的重点也不是很重要。

John Lovallo

Okay. Yes, that's encouraging. And then, clearly, demand is getting a little bit better here. And it's been I think it's been largely focused at lower price points. Have you guys seen any improvement though at -- as we move up the price point spectrum, are you starting to see increasing demand like kind of the first maybe even second-time move-up?

好的。 是的,这令人鼓舞。 然后,显然,需求在这里变得更好一些。 而且我认为它主要集中在较低的价位。 你们有没有看到任何改善 - 随着我们提高价格点谱,你是否开始看到需求增加,就像第一次甚至第二次升级一样?

杰夫梅兹格

John, I think the comment that there's strong demand at the price points that we operate at; our first move-up communities are hitting their pro formas just like our entry level. We don't have as many first move-up and very little, if any second move-up even come to mind for me right now. So we'll be -- we're watchful of what happens to pricing in the markets. My general sense is the higher-priced goods are a softer demand than the price points that we operate at. But our first move-up programs are selling well too.

约翰,我认为有关我们经营的价格点需求强劲的评论; 我们的第一个升级社区就像我们的入门级别一样打击了他们的职业生涯。 我们没有尽可能多的第一次升级,如果有任何第二次提升,我现在还没有想到。 所以我们会 - 我们注意到市场定价会发生什么变化。 我的一般意义是,价格较高的商品需求比我们运营的价格点要软。 但我们的第一个升级计划也很畅销。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Mike Rehaut与摩根大通的合作。 请继续你的问题。

Mike Rehaut

Hi, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the results. First question, I just wanted to circle back if I could to the sales pace. I think that was really one of the big upside surprises relative to your prior expectation. Again, that 2Q sales pace you had originally expected would match 2017 and instead it roughly matched 2018. So in your prior answer, you talked about a few different factors, but it just seemed the answer itself that you gave was just more kind of generic in terms of yes things just overall performed a little bit better.
I guess, I just wanted to make sure from my perspective or maybe from investors' perspective, I think the initial reaction would be wow those new communities really did perform a lot better or -- and perhaps there was a -- between that and the combination of some conservatism that that was really the ultimate driver there. And oftentimes, when you have new community openings, you really want these new communities to start off strong and they can be an outsized contribution to results.
So, I'm just trying to -- I just wanted to ask if I speaking about that correctly, or by contrast, was there some region or regions that really just kind of -- the switch flipped back on and you really just had some disproportionate strength from some regions recovering a lot better than you might have expected a few months ago?

嗨,下午好。感谢您提出问题并祝贺结果。第一个问题,如果我能够达到销售步伐,我只想回过头来。我认为相对于您之前的预期,这确实是一个巨大的上行意外。同样,你原先预期的第二季度销售速度将与2017年匹配,而大致相当于2018年。因此,在你之前的回答中,你谈到了几个不同的因素,但它似乎只是你给出的答案本身就是更多的通用在是的事情上,整体表现得更好一点。

我想,我只是想从我的角度或者从投资者的角度来确定,我认为最初的反应是哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇哇一些保守主义的组合,这真的是那里的终极驱动力。通常情况下,当您有新的社区空缺时,您真的希望这些新社区能够从强大开始,并且可以为结果做出巨大贡献。

所以,我只是想 - 我只是想问一下我是否正确地谈到了这一点,或者相反,是否有一些区域或区域真的只是那种 - 交换机重新开启而你真的只有一些一些地区的不成比例的力量比几个月前的预期恢复得更好?

杰夫梅兹格

Mike, I can say a couple things. You're not totally correct on the it's just coming from the new communities. It's a frustrating statistic for me to share our average community count, because it could be open for one month two months three months or one day in the quarter. And it's really a 90-day lag before the communities blend in and really start to gain strong momentum. So if it opened in March, it may have served a full quarter. But the communities we opened in mid-May didn't drive that absorption up.
And if you think of it from a math perspective, you got 255 communities and yet 43 openings and you still average the same as the year before that tells you that the existing communities that were already open performed well to hit that kind of an average. If you look at it regionally, the one I would highlight is California, where we typically have a higher sales pace per community on average, because you have to turn a bigger asset base with the community count growth there and the sales rate that we saw in California that they again lifted our company average.

迈克,我可以说几件事。你不是完全正确的,它来自新社区。分享我们的平均社区数量对我来说是一个令人沮丧的统计数据,因为它可以在一个月内开放两个月三个月或一个季度一个月。在社区融入并真正开始获得强劲势头之前,它确实是一个90天的滞后期。因此,如果它在3月开放,它可能已服务整整一个季度。但是我们在5月中旬开放的社区没有推动这种吸收。

如果你从数学角度考虑它,你有255个社区,但仍然有43个空缺,你仍然平均与之前一年相同,它告诉你现有的已经开放的社区表现良好,达到了那种平均水平。如果从区域角度来看,我要强调的是加利福尼亚州,我们通常平均每个社区的销售节奏更高,因为你必须通过那里的社区数量增长和我们看到的销售率来转变更大的资产基础在加利福尼亚,他们再次提升了公司的平均水平。

杰夫卡明斯基

Yeah, Mike the other thing; I think Jeff was saying, we did see across-the-board improvement. It doesn't mean every single community in every market but it was pretty broad-based for the quarter. I think a lot of it is just the business model and where we're competing. I mean, you read it all over the place with the industry news about the return of first-time buyer and the entry level picking up and being at the right price point is very important.
And the company stayed very disciplined over the last several years especially as we were rebuilding community count to make sure we were putting communities on the ground that met those parameters. And it's very natural for our company to operate in that space. It's been a strategy of the company for a long time.
So for me it was gratifying I guess to see the results at the end of the quarter, coming off some of the base communities that we've had in the ground for a long time as well as for the new communities.
But Jeff said it right, I mean we opened 43 communities and there were not many of them that were opened for 13 weeks. And they would average into the count at 21.5 because we're zero at the beginning and 43 at the end and two-point average, so that they certainly didn't drag us down. But I don't think that you could have point to that as saying that was a single point of focus. But that said, we are pleased with how they're performing and hope the rest of the communities we open this year perform equally as well.

是的,迈克另一件事;我想杰夫说,我们确实看到了全面的改进。它并不意味着每个市场中的每一个社区,但它在本季度相当广泛。我认为很多只是商业模式和我们竞争的地方。我的意思是,你通过行业新闻了解到首次购买者的回归以及入门级的提升并且价格合适是非常重要的。

在过去的几年里,公司保持了非常严格的纪律,特别是当我们重建社区数量以确保我们将社区置于满足这些参数的基础之上时。我们公司在这个领域开展业务非常自然。这是该公司长期以来的战略。

所以对我来说这是令人欣慰的我想在本季度结束时看到结果,这是我们在地下长期以及新社区所拥有的一些基础社区。

但杰夫说得对,我的意思是我们开了43个社区,其中很少有人开了13个星期。他们将平均值计算在21.5,因为我们在开始时为零,在结束时为43,两点平均值,所以他们肯定没有拖累我们。但我不认为你可以指出那是一个单一的焦点。但是,我们很高兴他们的表现如何,并希望我们今年开放的其他社区同样表现出色。

Mike Rehaut

No that's great. I appreciate that. I guess, secondly shifting to the gross margins and obviously you reiterated your outlook for improvement there. As we think about 3Q and 4Q, I think the math would work more or less that you’d have perhaps even a little bit of a greater sequential improvement, it seems like. If I'm kind of getting to the midpoints of your guidance ranges, let's see yeah maybe perhaps equal to or a little bit better of a sequential improvement in 4Q versus 3Q at least let's say a similar amount of improvement. So I'm just trying to get a sense -- yeah. So I'm just trying to get a sense -- okay. Good, good. So I'm just trying to get a sense for as you look for the drivers of those improvements, would you say its equal parts revenue leverage and mix? Or I guess how would you rank order the drivers of that improvement as it relates to across let's say operating leverage if mix is a contributor and obviously input cost with lumbar and such?

不,那很好。 我很感激。 我猜,其次是转向毛利率,显然你重申了你的改善前景。 当我们考虑第3季度和第4季度时,我认为数学运算会或多或少地起作用,甚至可能会有一些更大的顺序改进。 如果我有点达到你的指导范围的中点,那么让我们看看也许等于或者好一点,在第四季度与第三季度的顺序改进至少让我们说相似的改进量。 所以我只想尝试一下 - 是的。 所以我只想尝试一下 - 好吧。 好好。 所以我只是想了解一下当你寻找这些改进的驱动因素时,你会说它的平等收入杠杆和混合吗? 或者我猜你会如何排序这个改进的驱动因素,因为它涉及跨越让我们说运营杠杆如果混合是一个贡献者,显然输入成本与腰部等?

杰夫卡明斯基

Sure. Let's start right up top right and let you guys know how we come up with our guidance ranges and how we actually estimate and forecast the rest of the year. And you could start with our backlog value. I mean, we had about $2.2 billion in backlog at the end of the second quarter, which is a pretty high percentage of our expected third and fourth quarter revenues.
So we've already priced that product. We already have budgets on the cost. We know the land cost. We know about what the studio ad will be, some of those -- some of that backlog hasn't benched through the studio process yet. But we know on average about what that takes and we basically just forecast out our deliveries on a community-by-community, division-by-division, region-by-region on a total company basis and roll off the margins coming off of that.
We're getting, obviously, more confident in the ability to forecast. This is the first time we've gone out to the full year. Because of the backlog and because of the quarter we just had and because of what we saw during the spring selling season, we definitely have a higher level of confidence in the guidance ranges that we have out there and what we're seeing.
As far as the gross margin specifically, certainly we always see better leverage in the back half of the year in the third and fourth quarters and this year is no exception. We do expect to see some pickup from higher top line revenues, leveraging the fixed cost that we have in cost of sales. And the remainder of that, exactly as you outlined does come from mix.
And not the least of which is we expect to see a higher West Coast mix later in the year where we typically do carry higher margins and we have some pretty high margin communities coming to market that will be delivering out in the fourth quarter, so all of that's helpful. And we're pretty encouraged by the year and we like the progression. Certainly after some pretty tough market conditions in the fourth quarter in early first quarter, it was welcomed to see the market come back to us in the second quarter. And to be able to build that level of backlog and have the visibility out for the rest of the year is important for our business model.

当然。让我们从右上角开始,让你们知道我们如何提出我们的指导范围,以及我们如何实际估算和预测今年剩余时间。你可以从我们的积压值开始。我的意思是,在第二季度末我们的积压量约为22亿美元,这相当于我们预期的第三和第四季度收入的很高比例。

所以我们已经定价了那个产品。我们已经预算了成本。我们知道土地成本。我们知道工作室广告将会是什么,其中一些 - 其中一些积压工作尚未通过工作室流程。但我们平均知道这需要什么,我们基本上只是预测我们在整个公司的基础上逐个社区,逐个区域地分发我们的交付,并从那个区域滚出利润。 。

显然,我们对预测能力更有信心。这是我们第一次走向全年。由于积压和我们刚刚度过的季度,以及我们在春季销售季节所看到的情况,我们对我们在那里和我们所看到的指导范围中的信心肯定更高。

就毛利率而言,当然我们总是会在第三和第四季度看到今年下半年更好的杠杆率,今年也不例外。我们确实希望从更高的收入中获得一些回升,利用我们在销售成本中的固定成本。正如你所概述的那样,其余部分来自混合。

其中最重要的是我们预计在今年晚些时候会出现更高的西海岸组合,我们通常会带来更高的利润率,而且我们有一些相当高利润的社区将在第四季度上市,所以所有那是有帮助的。今年我们非常鼓舞,我们喜欢这种进展。当然,在第一季度初的第四季度一些非常艰难的市场情况之后,我们很高兴看到第二季度市场回归我们。并且能够构建该级别的积压并且在一年中的其余时间具有可见性对于我们的业务模型而言非常重要。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Schrier with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

我们的下一个问题来自Scott Schrier与Citi的合作。 请继续你的问题。

Scott Schrier

Hi, good afternoon. I wanted to ask a little bit more on the conversions to the smaller floor plans, understanding about the lower rates. Does the lower number and the other math of costs, does that make it maybe a little more efficient to try to push more of the larger plans? How flexible are you in your communities to shift around the number of smaller plans that you had to -- as you alluded to earlier as more of a marketing tool to bring people in? And how do you think about keeping the smaller plan in the community versus potentially going back to the larger plans versus the smaller plan but possibly get more out of the design studio from both lower rates and then from your perspective the trend that you've seen in input cost and the efficiencies associated with that?

嗨,下午好。 我想再问一些关于较小楼层计划的转换,了解较低的房价。 较低的数字和其他数学成本是否会使尝试推动更多大型计划的效率更高一些? 您在社区中有多灵活地转移您必须使用的较小计划的数量 - 正如您之前提到的那样,更多的营销工具可以引入人们? 您如何考虑将较小的计划保留在社区中,而不是可能回到较大的计划而不是较小的计划,但可能从较低的费率中获得更多的设计工作室,然后从您的角度看待您所见的趋势 投入成本和与之相关的效率?

杰夫梅兹格

Well, you bring up an interesting topic. And what we try to toggle, we use the term bracket to median income. We try to make our product attainable by the median income in that ZIP code. And we'll look at the median income and then how can we position the product to make the most money per lot that can be attainable for the median income. So over here in the higher income area the smallest model may be 1,800 square feet. And over here it may be 1,200 square feet.
And the beauty of this for us is that it's the buyer picking it, not us building it and then selling. So we constantly are tracking, which end of the footage spectrum the buyers are tilting to in a community. If they're tilting up big, we'll push the price. We may introduce an even bigger home. If they're moving to the smaller products you push the price the best you can and everything in between. So it's pretty fluid each week in every community that's out there but we go to -- optimize how much money can we make on every lot.

好吧,你提出了一个有趣的话题。我们试图切换,我们使用术语括号来收入中位数。我们尝试通过该邮政编码中的收入中位数来实现我们的产品。我们将看看收入中位数,然后我们如何定位产品以赚取中等收入可获得的每批最多的钱。因此,在高收入地区,最小型号可能是1,800平方英尺。在这里它可能是1,200平方英尺。

而对我们来说,这就是买家选择它的美丽,而不是我们建造它然后销售。因此,我们不断跟踪,这是买家在社区中倾向于哪个镜头频谱的结尾。如果他们向上倾斜,我们会推高价格。我们可能会介绍一个更大的家。如果他们转向较小的产品,你可以尽可能地推动价格和介于两者之间的一切。因此,每周在每个社区都有相当流动但我们去 - 优化我们可以在每一批产品上赚多少钱。

Scott Schrier

Got it. And then on a year-to-date basis, it looks like your Southwest; your Southeast ASPs are up quite a bit year-on-year. Can you talk about some of the drivers whether there's any granularity into the different mix or regional considerations or potentially on a like-for-like basis how much pricing you're able to get in some of those regions?

得到它了。 然后在年初至今,它看起来像你的西南; 你的东南部平均销售额同比增长很多。 你能否谈谈一些驱动因素是否有任何粒度进入不同的组合或区域考虑因素,或者可能是基于类似的基础,您可以在某些区域获得多少定价?

杰夫卡明斯基

Right. So you're speaking -- you said Southeast and Southwest, right? Yeah, they're both up. The -- there's a little bit of division mix particularly in the Southwest where our ASPs in the Vegas market are higher than our ASPs in the Arizona market. And they've accelerated by a higher pace as well for the year, so most of that came out of the Vegas market in the Southwest.
In the Southeast, you see it pretty much across Florida and even in the Carolinas in our business there where a lot of that is just replacement communities probably at a higher price point. I don't think -- when you look at it, we couldn't say we got 6.4% price increase in the Southeast on a year-over-year basis but there's definitely some price in there along with community mix. Outside of that, I don't know if I could get any more granular detailed on -- than that high level for you.

对。 所以你说 - 你说东南和西南,对吧? 是的,他们都起来了。 - 在西南地区有一些分工组合,特别是在西南地区,我们在拉斯维加斯市场的平均售价高于我们在亚利桑那市场的平均售价。 而且他们今年也加快了步伐,所以大部分时间来自西南的拉斯维加斯市场。

在东南部,你可以在佛罗里达州看到它,甚至在我们的商业中的卡罗莱纳州,其中很多只是替代社区可能在更高的价格点。 我不认为 - 当你看到它时,我们不能说我们在东南部的价格同比上涨了6.4%,但肯定有一些价格与社区组合。 除此之外,我不知道我是否可以获得更细致的详细信息 - 而不是那个高级别的信息。

会议主持员

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of our question-and-answer session as well as today’s teleconference. I would like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day.

女士们,先生们,我们的问答环节以及今天的电话会议已经结束。 我想感谢你的参与。 您现在可以断开线路并度过美好的一天。

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