Netflix,Inc。(NFLX) 首席执行官 Reed Hastings 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call July 17, 2019 6:00 PM ET

Netflix,Inc。(纳斯达克股票代码:[NFLX])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年7月17日美国东部时间下午6:00

公司参与者

Reed Hastings - Co-Founder, Chairman, President & CEO
Spencer Neumann - CFO
Gregory Peters - Chief Product Officer
Theodore Sarandos - Chief Content Officer
Spencer Wang - VP, Finance & IR

  • Reed Hastings - 联合创始人,董事长,总裁兼首席执行官
  • Spencer Neumann - 首席财务官
  • Gregory Peters - 首席产品官
  • Theodore Sarandos - 首席内容官
  • Spencer Wang - 财务和IR的副总裁

电话会议参与者

Michael Morris - Guggenheim Securities

  • 迈克尔莫里斯 - 古根海姆证券

Spencer Wang

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Netflix Q2 2019 Earnings Interview. I'm Spencer Wang, VP of IR and Corporate Development. Joining me today are CEO, Reed Hastings; CFO, Spence Neumann; Chief Content Officer, Ted Sarandos; and Chief Product Officer, Greg Peters. Our interviewer this quarter is Mike Morris from Guggenheim.
As a reminder we'll be making forward-looking statements and actual results may vary.
With that, let me turn it over to Mike for his first question.

下午好,欢迎参加Netflix Q2 2019年盈利面试。 我是IR和企业发展副总裁Spencer Wang。 今天加入我的是首席执行官Reed Hastings; 首席财务官,Spence Neumann; 首席内容官,Ted Sarandos; 和首席产品官Greg Peters。 本季度我们的采访者是来自古根海姆的Mike Morris。

提醒我们,我们将做出前瞻性陈述,实际结果可能会有所不同。

有了这个,让我把它交给迈克第一个问题。

问答环节

Thank you, Spencer. Good afternoon. Let's jump right into the results and the member variance from guidance in particular. What changed during the quarter versus the outlook that you provided that made such a significant impact this quarter? And you didn't mention the content being perhaps a factor. I think that's really something we haven't focused on in the past in terms of driving the cyclicality, so maybe if could you talk about those things.

谢谢你,斯宾塞。 下午好。 让我们直接跳到结果中,特别是成员与指导的差异。 本季度发生了哪些变化,而您提供的前景在本季度产生了如此重大的影响? 你没有提到内容可能是一个因素。 我认为这是我们过去没有关注的推动周期性的事情,所以也许你可以谈论那些事情。

里德黑斯廷斯

When we're forecasting, Mike, in the beginning of the quarter, we make our best estimate. And as you can see over the past 3 years, sometimes we're forecast high, sometimes we forecast low. This is one where we forecasted high. There was no one thing.
And if I think about three years ago, we were also light, and we never really were confident of the explanation. Then, we were $2 billion in quarterly revenue. Now, we're going $5 billion. And so it's easy to over-interpret the quarter membership adds, which are a bit noisy. So for the most part, we're just executing forward and trying to do the best forecast we can. Do you want to add anything to that, Spence?

当我们预测时,迈克,在本季度初,我们做出了最好的估计。 正如你在过去3年所看到的那样,有时我们预测会很高,有时候我们预测会很低。 这是我们预测的高点。 没有一件事。

如果我想起三年前,我们也很轻松,我们从来没有真正对这个解释充满信心。 然后,我们的季度收入为20亿美元。 现在,我们要花50亿美元。 所以很容易过度解释季度会员增加,这有点嘈杂。 所以在大多数情况下,我们只是向前迈进并尽力做到最好的预测。 Spence,你想要添加任何东西吗?

Spencer Neumann

Yes. Thanks, Reed. Maybe I'd just add the fact that when we think about those paid net add forecasted, it's really about the marginal growth, Mike. On a subscriber base, it's over 150 million members, so we're talking about plus or minus 1%, 2%, 3% in growth rates on subscribers on an annual basis that are growing over 20%. So if we look at the trailing 12 months, we grew our member base by over 27 million members. If you take that forward to where we think we'll be at the end of Q3, we think we'll be, on a trailing 12-month basis, over 28 million members. So we're really playing for the sustained increase in growth in our membership over time, and there'll be some quarter-by-quarter choppiness along the way based on things like seasonality and content slate and so forth.

是。 谢谢,里德。 也许我只是补充一点,当我们考虑那些付费网络预测时,它实际上是关于边际增长,迈克。 在用户群上,它有超过1.5亿会员,因此我们谈论的是年度增长率超过20%的用户增长率正负1%,2%,3%。 因此,如果我们看看过去的12个月,我们的成员基数增加了超过2700万。 如果你把它推向我们认为我们将在第三季度结束的地方,我们认为我们将在过去12个月的基础上超过2800万会员。 因此,随着时间的推移,我们真正在为会员的增长持续增长而努力,并且在季节性和内容平台等基础上会有一些逐季的不稳定因素。

迈克尔莫里斯

Can you provide a little more detail perhaps on the gross add versus the churn dynamic in the quarter, including -- there's the pricing dynamic I want to get to as well, but maybe if we just back up and look at gross adds versus churn and how that resulted in the net.

您是否可以提供更多详细信息,或许可以提供季度总增加量与流失动态,包括 - 我想要达到的定价动态,但也许如果我们只是备份并查看总增加与流失和 这是如何产生网络的。

Spencer Neumann

Yes. Sure. I mean generally when we looked at the -- the slowdown in subscriber growth was across all of our regions. So you talk about our kind of top of funnel or gross adds, we saw that slowdown across the board, which indicates to us some level of seasonality and kind of the overall, as we say, the kind of timing of the content slate. And also, frankly, maybe a little bit more pull forward of our subscriber growth from Q2 to Q1 because we had such a strong Q1 with 9.7 million paid net adds. But we also did see in regions where we increased prices, we did see some elevated churn rates and lower retentions. So it was a combination of those 2 things. We think the primary story was around seasonality and timing and nature of our content slate, but pricing played a factor.
Now, the good news in all of that, as you saw, Mike, I think in the letter is that in the first couple of weeks of Q3, that growth has reaccelerated again. We're seeing both that top of funnel growth in acquisitions. We're also seeing improvement in those churn rates and retention back down towards those pre-price change levels. So overall, encouraged with the trends.
And with regard to that pricing piece too, it's worth kind of reminding ourselves it's all -- that's all very revenue-accretive. So while there may be some short-term slowdown in subscriber growth because of pricing, that increased revenue is very good for our business and ultimately for our members because we reinvest the bulk of that back into great content and great product experience for our members.

是。当然。我的意思是,当我们看到 - 所有地区的用户增长放缓时。因此,你谈论我们的漏斗或粗略增加的顶部,我们看到全面放缓,这向我们表明一定程度的季节性和整体的类型,正如我们所说,内容板块的时间安排。而且,坦率地说,从第二季度到第一季度,我们的订户增长可能会略微提升,因为我们拥有如此强大的第一季度,其净付费增加了970万。但我们也看到在价格上涨的地区,我们确实看到了一些提高的流失率和较低的保留率。所以这是两件事的组合。我们认为主要的故事是关于季节性,时间和内容的性质,但定价是一个因素。

现在,正如你所看到的,所有这些的好消息,迈克,我认为在第三季度的前几周,这种增长再次加速。我们看到收购中的两大漏斗增长。我们也看到这些客户流失率和保留率都有所改善,并且已经回落到价格变化前的水平。总的来说,鼓励趋势。

而且对于那个定价片而言,值得提醒自己这一切 - 这些都是非常有收益的。因此,虽然由于定价可能会导致用户增长短期放缓,但增加的收入对我们的业务和最终我们的会员来说非常有利,因为我们将其中的大部分重新投入到我们会员的优质内容和出色的产品体验中。

迈克尔莫里斯

Can we talk a little bit about that pricing cycle and where we are right now? So 2 things, I guess, specifically in the U.S. by June, the entire membership base seen a price increase such that there wouldn't be a lagging impact in the September quarter. And then internationally, obviously it's much broader. Can you highlight any particular markets, anything you can help us size the portion of your member base that is processing through those pricing increases?

我们可以谈谈定价周期以及我们现在的位置吗? 因此,我认为,特别是在6月份的美国,有两件事,整个会员基数看到价格上涨,以至于9月季度不会出现滞后影响。 然后在国际上,显然它更广泛。 您能否突出显示任何特定市场,您可以通过这些定价增加来帮助我们确定您的会员基础部分的大小吗?

Spencer Neumann

Greg, do you want to take that or do you want me to take it?

格雷格,你想要那个还是你想让我服用它?

格雷戈里彼得斯

I'm happy to do that. So I mean in the U.S. situation, we're through all those notifications. Obviously in the international perspective, we've got different markets in different places. But I would say just in terms of helping you size that, I mean we've built obviously that into our forecast for our Q3, so those effects we've already tried to account for and categorize in that forecast.

我很乐意这样做。 所以我的意思是在美国的情况下,我们会通过所有这些通知。 显然,从国际视角来看,我们在不同的地方有不同的市场。 但我想说的只是帮助你确定规模,我的意思是我们已经明确地将其纳入我们对Q3的预测中,因此我们已经尝试考虑这些影响并将其归类为该预测。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. Great. And then, Spence, one other question with respect to the [letter in] [ph] the outlook. It's the second consecutive quarter you've come ahead in operating income relative to your guide. You're maintaining the same full year guidance. I know that you've referenced the marketing, but help us there with, again, maybe why the timing. From your perspective, forecasting hasn't been as clear given that it feels that you would know when certain marketing was coming through.

好的。 大。 然后,Spence,另一个关于[字母] [ph]前景的问题。 这是你相对于你的导游来说连续第二个季度的营业收入。 你保持同样的全年指导。 我知道你已经引用了营销,但再次帮助我们,也许为什么时机。 从您的角度来看,预测并不是那么清楚,因为它会让您知道某些营销何时会通过。

Spencer Neumann

Well, it's marketing we have -- and Ted should chime in, too -- but we have some discretion as to when we choose to support titles. And so we're really -- when you look at the back half content slate that we have, we're very excited about -- with Stranger Things 3 already launching, but then shows like Casa de Papel and Crown and big movies in the fourth quarter and money -- sorry, I already mentioned Money Heist, sorry. But there's just -- there's a lot of content to support, so I think it was just really discretion of the team to move some and shift some of that marketing spend into later -- to the latter half of the year.

嗯,这是我们的营销 - 而且Ted也应该加入 - 但我们在选择支持游戏时有一定的自由裁量权。 所以我们真的 - 当你看到我们所拥有的后半部分内容时,我们非常兴奋 - 与Stranger Things 3已经推出,但随后显示像Casa de Papel和Crown以及大片中的大片 第四季度和钱 - 对不起,我已经提到了Money Heist,对不起。 但是只有 - 有很多内容需要支持,所以我认为团队真的有自由裁量权来移动一些并将部分营销支出转移到后期 - 到今年下半年。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. So with some of these pressing topics covered a bit, Reed, usually we'll start with an overview question. And so I guess, we're halfway through the year now, this dynamic perhaps aside, any change to your view of the business strategically overall? And I guess embedded in that is touching on that question of your confidence about the growth outlook going forward, and why an investor shouldn't look at this quarter and say perhaps the business is approaching maturity more quickly than we anticipated.

好的。 因此,对于其中一些紧迫的主题,Reed,通常我们将从一个概述问题开始。 所以我想,我们现在正处于这一年的中间阶段,这种动态可能除此之外,您对战略整体业务的看法有何变化? 而且我认为这涉及到你对未来增长前景的信心问题,以及为什么投资者不应该关注本季度,并说业务可能比我们预期的更快地接近成熟。

里德黑斯廷斯

Yes. I mean if you look over the past 12 years that we've been streaming, in the beginning, there was Hulu and Amazon and YouTube and Netflix and we've all been growing at tremendous rates over the last 12 years. And now it's really catching on in a big way around the world and we're having a lot of new competitors enter over the next year. And I think our position is excellent. We're building amazing capacity for content. Our products have never been in better shape. Our rate of investment is extremely high. So if investors believe in Internet television, which I think is an easy one to get there, then our position in that market is very strong. And all of the key things are coming our way in terms of, again, stronger content and a stronger service.

是。 我的意思是,如果你看看过去12年我们一直在流媒体,最初有Hulu和亚马逊,YouTube和Netflix,我们在过去的12年里一直以惊人的速度增长。 而现在它在世界各地都有很大的吸引力,我们有很多新的竞争者在明年进入市场。 我认为我们的立场非常好。 我们正在构建令人惊叹的内容容量。 我们的产品从未有过更好的形状。 我们的投资率非常高。 因此,如果投资者相信互联网电视,我认为这是一个很容易实现的目标,那么我们在该市场的地位非常强。 而且,所有重要的事情都将来自于更强大的内容和更强大的服务。

Spencer Wang

And Mike, if I could just add on your topic of maturation, I would just also point out that revenue growth did accelerate by 400 basis points in Q2 versus Q1. If you look at our guidance as well for Q3, I think you'll see that trend continue as well. So financially, I think that's actually a sign that things are picking up or continuing to grow very steadily.

迈克,如果我可以补充你的成熟话题,我还要指出,第二季度收入增长确实比第一季度加速了400个基点。 如果你看看我们的指导以及第三季度,我想你会看到这种趋势继续下去。 从财务上来说,我认为这实际上表明事情正在好转或继续稳步增长。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. Thank you for that.

非常好。 谢谢你。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

I'd also just add too, on a similar or in the same vein, is on a show-by-show or film-by-film basis, we're also seeing -- hitting new heights in terms of viewer penetration and audience reach as well.

我也只是以类似或相同的方式添加,逐个节目或逐个电影,我们也看到 - 在观众渗透和观众方面达到新的高度 也达到了。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. Okay. Great. Let's expand the discussion a little bit. Greg, over the past year plus, we've talked about some of the partnerships that Netflix has struck with the traditional video and wireless providers. I understand each can be different. There can be different accounting treatments. But perhaps can you give us an overview right now where we are on partnerships? Perhaps domestically in particular, how they're impacting the business? Did they have any impact during the quarter? Of course. But just in general, what do we look like in terms of those impacting and where we might go from here?

好的。 好的。 大。 让我们稍微扩展一下讨论。 格雷格,在过去的一年中,我们已经谈到了Netflix与传统视频和无线提供商达成的一些合作伙伴关系。 我知道每个都可以不同。 可以有不同的会计处理方法。 但是,您现在可以向我们概述合作伙伴关系吗? 或许在国内特别是它们如何影响业务? 他们在本季度有什么影响吗? 当然。 但总的来说,就影响力和我们可能从何处而言,我们看起来是什么样子?

格雷戈里彼得斯

Sure. So yes, there's a long history of these partnerships starting back with sort of the simple device integrations back to the Xbox and Sony PlayStation, but the latest incarnation as we sort of added more capability to each partnership from just the simple device integrations and being able to access the experience, this sort of payment integration and things like that is this bundling that we are doing with pay-TV operators, with mobile operators. And to characterize where we are, we're still fairly early in that process, I would say, from a global perspective. But the bundles that we are doing are nice incremental accelerants to our acquisition, especially into a user population that may not be as tech-forward as the folks that sign up with us directly. They may not have a Smart TV connected to the Internet at home, they may not have an adapter product like a Roku or an Amazon Fire TV, but they do have a set-top box from their pay-TV operator, and if we can put the Netflix application in a nice seamless integration into that set-top box. If we can then include the actual subscription to Netflix as part of their pay-TV offering as a bundle, then it makes it super simple for those folks to be able to get the same kind of experience that our subscribers who sign up with us directly do and get the same benefits.
So we're going to continue to expand those. We've got tons of opportunity, I'd say, globally around the world to add more and more partnerships, so we're still fairly early stages there. But I also -- our perspective is that we anticipate that, that bundle acquisition channel is a nice supplemental incremental component, but a minority component of our overall subscriber acquisition process.

当然。所以,是的,这些合作伙伴关系的悠久历史从简单的设备集成回到Xbox和索尼PlayStation,但最新的化身,因为我们通过简单的设备集成为每个合作伙伴添加了更多的功能,并且能够为了获得这种体验,这种支付集成和类似的东西就是我们与付费电视运营商以及移动运营商所做的捆绑。为了描述我们的位置,我认为,从全球的角度来看,我们还是处于相当早的阶段。但我们正在进行的捆绑是我们收购的不错的增量促进因素,特别是对于那些可能不像直接与我们签约的人那样技术前进的用户群。他们可能没有智能电视连接到家里的互联网,他们可能没有像Roku或亚马逊消防电视这样的适配器产品,但他们确实有付费电视运营商的机顶盒,如果可以的话将Netflix应用程序与该机顶盒完美无缝集成。如果我们可以将Netflix的实际订阅作为捆绑付费电视产品的一部分包含在内,那么这使得那些人能够获得与我们直接注册的订阅者相同的体验变得非常简单做并获得相同的好处。

所以我们将继续扩大这些。我要说,我们在全球范围内有很多机会可以增加越来越多的合作伙伴关系,所以我们还处于相当早期的阶段。但我也 - 我们的观点是,我们预计,捆绑收购渠道是一个很好的补充增量组件,但却是我们整体用户获取流程的一小部分。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. Let's turn a little internationally as well, Ted. Prior to the results today, data that we had seen indicated some strength in particular markets that seems content-driven strength in France and Germany in particular in Europe; Japan, South Korea in Asia. Curious if you could characterize any particular markets that -- I realize you mentioned the relative weakness. The guide was across the board. But any particular markets seeing more of a tailwind right now, particularly a content-driven tailwind?

好的。 让我们在国际上转一点,特德。 在今天的结果发布之前,我们看到的数据表明在特定市场中有一些优势,这些市场在法国和德国尤其是欧洲似乎具有内容驱动力; 日本,韩国在亚洲。 好奇,如果你可以描述任何特定的市场 - 我意识到你提到了相对的弱点。 该指南是全面的。 但是现在任何特定的市场都看到了更多的顺风,特别是内容驱动的顺风?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Well, one that we're going to be looking for starting this week is going to be La Casa de Papel that Spencer just mentioned. This is our largest non-English show, [indiscernible] throughout the world at a very high level. We also have Elite and Chicas del Cable from Spain that are enormously popular shows, and new seasons coming in the quarter. And Sacred Games from India, which was a big driver for us in its first season, dropping a new season this quarter as well. And in the past 3 months with the release out of Germany of How to Sell Drugs Online, The Rain season 2 from Denmark and Quicksand from Sweden, what's been amazing is they've been deeply relevant in the home country, traveled the region very, very well and it found global audiences. So the 3 shows I just mentioned from Germany, Denmark and Sweden have 12 to 15 million global watchers. So we're seeing some real locally, regionally and globally relevant content coming from all over the world.

好吧,我们本周要开始寻找的是Spencer刚才提到的La Casa de Papel。 这是我们最大的非英语节目,[音频不清晰]在世界各地都处于非常高的水平。 我们还有来自西班牙的Elite和Chicas del Cable,这是非常受欢迎的节目,以及本季度的新季节。 来自印度的神圣运动会,这是我们第一季的重要推动因素,也是本季度的新赛季。 在过去3个月里,德国发布了“如何在线销售毒品”,“雨季”第2季来自丹麦,瑞典人来自瑞典,令他们惊叹的是,他们在祖国的情况非常深刻,非常走遍了该地区, 非常好,它找到了全球观众。 因此我刚从德国,丹麦和瑞典提到的3个节目有1200万到1500万全球观察者。 因此,我们看到来自世界各地的一些真实的本地,区域和全球相关内容。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. And you mentioned India. It's a topic we like to dab a bit more into because of the size of the market, of course. So I guess for Ted and for Greg also, in this market in particular, as we approach the second season of Sacred Games, a bit of a milestone, where are we on the content offering? I think you've referenced some other markets where you can start with an original, it gets some traction, but you really need a certain amount of bulk to offer there. So where are we in the content offering in India? I also know you mentioned or I have seen reference that you have five other shows, particularly series or projects that we have a green light.
And then, Greg, perhaps tied in with the question about product pricing, you made a reference in the letter to some new pricing. Can you talk a little bit more about both the product and pricing in India in particular?

非常好。 你提到了印度。 当然,由于市场的规模,这是我们想要进一步研究的话题。 所以我想Ted和Greg也是,尤其是在这个市场,当我们接近神圣游戏的第二季时,有点里程碑,我们在哪里提供内容? 我认为你已经引用了一些其他市场,你可以从一个原创开始,它有一些牵引力,但你真的需要一定量的批量提供。 那么我们在印度的内容提供方面在哪里? 我也知道你提到或者我已经看到你有五个其他节目的参考,特别是我们有绿灯的系列或项目。

然后,格雷格,或许与产品定价问题相关,你在信中提到了一些新的定价。 你能谈谈印度的产品和价格吗?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Yes. Before we get into pricing, the only thing I would like to add is that our -- we announced five new originals for India. The one we're also really excited about later on this year is Baahubali, which is our first step into a really large-scale Indian original film. It's based on a film that was hugely popular a year ago, and this is a series prequel/sequel model that we think is going to be incredibly popular in India. And we've been seeing steady -- nice steady increases in engagement with our Indian viewers that we think we can keep building on. Growth in that country is a marathon. So we're in it for the long haul and we're seeing nice steady progress.

是。 在我们进入定价之前,我唯一想补充的是我们 - 我们为印度宣布了五个新的原件。 我们今年晚些时候也非常兴奋的是Baahubali,这是我们进入一部真正大规模的印度原创电影的第一步。 它是基于一年前非常受欢迎的电影,这是一个系列前传/续集模型,我们认为它将在印度非常受欢迎。 我们一直看到稳定 - 与印度观众的接触稳步增长,我们认为我们可以继续发展。 该国的增长是一场马拉松比赛。 所以我们长期参与其中,我们看到了稳定的进步。

格雷戈里彼得斯

So as we're expanding that content offering and seeing that engagement grow, we think that there's an opportunity then to be able to broaden the access to the service and so more people can enjoy that increasingly relevant content offering. So that's clearly the motivator behind adding this mobile tier offering, which we think -- it's going to be a lower price point. In a market where the typical pay-TV package is under $5, we think we need to have a lower price offering to improve the accessibility, but also one that complements the existing tiering structure that we have. So that's the primary motivator for that move, so we can broaden the audience that can love that content, enjoy that content that Ted's team is making. And that's great because like when we launched Sacred Games season 2, when you have a bigger audience for it, that means we can create more social buzz and more excitement about that show. So we're doing that. We're also working on the partnerships we have in the market because we think there's specific opportunities to improve accessibility via those partnerships as well.

因此,当我们扩展内容产品并看到参与度增长时,我们认为有机会扩大对服务的访问权限,因此更多人可以享受越来越相关的内容产品。因此,这显然是添加此移动层产品背后的动力,我们认为 - 这将是一个较低的价格点。在典型的付费电视套餐低于5美元的市场中,我们认为我们需要提供更低价格的产品来改善可访问性,同时也需要补充我们现有的分层结构。因此,这是此举的主要动力,因此我们可以扩大能够喜爱该内容的受众,享受Ted团队正在制作的内容。这很好,因为就像我们推出第二季的神圣游戏一样,当你有更大的观众时,这意味着我们可以创造更多的社交嗡嗡声和更多的兴奋。所以我们这样做。我们也在努力建立我们在市场上的合作伙伴关系,因为我们认为通过这些合作伙伴关系也有改善可访问性的具体机会。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. And Reed, broader question. How do you view your potential subscriber base globally? I think a lot of us use the sort of broadband -- connected broadband marketplace, but how do you see it? I would imagine you see it as larger than that. And historically, you've given us the 60 million to 90 million member outlook for the U.S. Would you be willing to put some parameters on what you think the global opportunity could be? Or why wouldn't you?

非常好。 和里德,更广泛的问题。 您如何在全球范围内查看您的潜在用户群? 我想我们很多人都使用这种宽带连接的宽带市场,但你怎么看? 我想你会看到它比那个更大。 从历史上看,你已经为我们提供了6000万到9000万美元的美国会员展望。你愿意为你认为的全球机会提供一些参数吗? 或者你为什么不呢?

里德黑斯廷斯

Well, we do wonder, in the fullness of time, can we be as big as YouTube? YouTube is 7x larger than us roughly in viewing hours, and a phenomenal service. Of course, it's free. So the real question is can we produce enough content that people are willing to pay for? If you look at benchmarks, it's about 700 million households that pay for television outside of China, so that would be kind of the equivalent of the U.S., 100 million, so that's one established market.
Now, do we have enough content in each of those countries? Most of that is local content that gets consumed. But the Internet is capable of some very large customer bases, as you I'm sure well know. So we'll just take it year-by-year and try to have our net adds continue to grow. We still think our net adds this year will be larger than last year. We'll keep pushing on that. And what we want to do is just grow the net adds every year and then the future takes care of itself.

好吧,我们确实想知道,在充足的时间里,我们可以像YouTube一样大吗? YouTube在观看时间方面大约比我们大7倍,并提供惊人的服务。 当然,它是免费的。 所以真正的问题是我们能够制作出足够的内容供人们愿意支付吗? 如果看一下基准测试,那么大约有7亿户家庭在中国境外支付电视费用,所以这相当于美国的1亿,这是一个成熟的市场。

现在,我们每个国家都有足够的内容吗? 其中大部分是消耗的本地内容。 但是互联网能够拥有一些非常庞大的客户群,因为我很清楚。 因此,我们将逐年采取措施,并尝试让我们的净增长继续增长。 我们仍然认为今年我们的净增加量将大于去年。 我们会继续推动这一点。 而我们想要做的只是每年增加净增量,然后未来照顾自己。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. I want to talk about a couple of broader strategic topics here. Reed, in the past, you've clearly stated that you view your competition for consumers' time pretty broadly, sleep, video games, et cetera. The financial press though loves this concept of streaming wars between Netflix and a number of existing and new platforms. So do you think that streaming wars is a fairer characterization of what the future holds for Netflix and for video entertainment?

非常好。 我想在这里谈谈几个更广泛的战略主题。 Reed,在过去,你已经清楚地表明你在消费者的时间,消费者的时间,睡眠,视频游戏,等等。 财经媒体虽然喜欢Netflix与众多现有和新平台之间的流媒体战争概念。 那么你认为流媒体战争是对未来Netflix和视频娱乐的更公正的描述吗?

里德黑斯廷斯

Yes. I mean high level, it is. Certainly, all of Ted's world is very competitive. It's never been a better world for talent. They get to bid themselves off between us, Disney, Amazon, et cetera. So there's a real battle for who will pay for content around the world, but it's not a zero-sum competition. I think everybody gets that people will subscribe to multiple shows. Add wage -- most Netflix employees are HBO subscribers. We love the content they do and that spurs us on to want to be even better. So it's a great competition that helps grow the industry. And the advantage of having something catchy like the streaming wars is it draws more attention. And because of that, people, consumers shift more quickly from linear TV to the streaming TV.

是。 我的意思是高水平,它是。 当然,特德的所有世界都非常具有竞争力。 对于人才来说,这永远不是一个更美好的世界。 他们可以在我们,迪士尼,亚马逊等公司之间竞标。 因此,对于谁将为全球内容付费而言,真的存在争议,但这不是零和竞争。 我想每个人都会认为人们会订阅多个节目。 增加工资 - 大多数Netflix员工都是HBO订户。 我们喜欢他们所做的内容,这会激励我们想要变得更好。 所以这是一场有助于发展行业的伟大竞争。 像流媒体战争这样有吸引力的东西的优点是它吸引了更多的注意力。 正因为如此,人们,消费者更快地从线性电视转向流媒体电视。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. Greg, over the past 12 months, you've spent -- the company spent approximately $1.5 billion on technology. I mean a couple of specific questions. First, can you help us understand sort of the scalable part of that spend versus the incremental part of that spend? And maybe to the extent you can quantify, Greg, to the extent you can perhaps talk about the types of things that would fit into 1 of those two buckets, that would be great.
And I think also a question that we get is really how your technology spend can be a competitive advantage in this competition for subscribers. So is there anything you can point to from the consumer perspective where you really feel like it's, whether we see it or we just enjoy it, that separates the Netflix platform from the competition there?

非常好。 格雷格,在过去的12个月里,你已经花了 - 该公司在技术方面花费了大约15亿美元。 我的意思是几个具体的问题。 首先,您能否帮助我们了解该支出的可扩展部分与支出的增量部分? 也许在某种程度上你可以量化,格雷格,你可以谈论适合这两个桶中的一个的事物的类型,这将是伟大的。

而且我认为我们得到的一个问题是,您的技术支出如何在这场竞争对手中成为竞争优势。 那么你可以从消费者的角度指出你真正感受到的东西,无论我们看到它还是我们只是喜欢它,将Netflix平台与竞争对手分开?

格雷戈里彼得斯

Yes. There's a lot there, so let me try and take it piecewise. I would say the majority of that spend we would say is a fixed cost investment which returns increasing benefits at scale. So as we grow our business, we get higher leverage off that fixed cost investment. There is a small portion of that, that I would say is sort of incremental to how we scale that -- you can think of that as either on the deliveries cost side. We seek to invest on the content delivery side to make that more efficient, so that's a fixed cost, but then we obviously have certain elements of that cost which just scales as we grow the business as we deliver more streams, right?
But a couple of examples on this so you can see the benefits from a consumer perspective, just to pick a few. So one is when we think about sort of our encode efficiency. And this is how we actually take the moving pictures that our creators produce and then reduce them into a digital form so that we can actually deliver them to a variety of different clients, a variety of different devices around the world in a wide, wide range of network conditions back to like gigabit-plus, constantly reliable all the way to super flaky networks that we see in markets, let's say, in a mobile environment. And so we try and make that encoding process so good that pretty much we are maximizing the capability that we have, the connection that we have to any given consumer in that wide range of environments at any point in time. So obviously, that's the consumer benefit is realizing just a good quality picture experience and more engagement, more compelling immersiveness in the content. So that would be an example on that kind of fixed cost return.

是。那里有很多,所以让我尝试分段。我想说,我们所说的大部分支出是固定成本投资,它会带来规模效益的增加。因此,随着我们业务的增长,我们从固定成本投资中获得更高的杠杆率。其中有一小部分,我认为这是我们如何扩展的一种增量 - 您可以将其视为交付成本方面。我们寻求在内容交付方面进行投资以提高效率,因此这是固定成本,但是我们显然有一定的成本因素随着我们提供更多流而扩展业务,这对吗?

但是有几个这方面的例子,你可以从消费者的角度看待好处,只需选择一些。所以我们考虑一下编码效率就是一个。这就是我们如何实际拍摄我们的创作者制作的动态图像然后将其缩小为数字形式,以便我们实际上可以将它们传送到各种不同的客户端,广泛的范围内的各种不同的设备我们在市场中看到的超级片状网络,在移动环境中,网络状况又回到了千兆以上,一直可靠。因此,我们尝试使编码过程非常好,以至于我们正在最大限度地发挥我们的能力,即在任何时间点我们在各种环境中对任何特定消费者的连接。很明显,消费者的好处是实现了高质量的图片体验和更多的参与度,更加引人注目的内容沉浸感。这就是这种固定成本回报的一个例子。

里德黑斯廷斯

And Greg, about how many AV tests do you guys have running currently?

还有格雷格,关于你们目前有多少次AV测试?

格雷戈里彼得斯

So let's say, in a year, we'll run, let's say, 400 is a good benchmark. And these are situations where we're -- we have a theory, a hypothesis of how do we present a better experience which is more compelling to our users which gives them a better experience, more engagement. And we'll test it out and then based on how the users actually use the service, we'll determine if that hypothesis was correct or not. And obviously, the ones that work, that are a better experience will roll out largely to our whole universe typically of users around the world.

所以,让我们说,在一年内,我们将运行,比方说,400是一个很好的基准。 这些都是我们的情况 - 我们有一个理论,一个假设,即我们如何呈现更好的体验,这对我们的用户更有吸引力,从而为他们提供更好的体验,更多的参与度。 我们将测试它,然后根据用户实际使用服务的方式,我们将确定该假设是否正确。 显然,那些有效的,更好的体验将在很大程度上推广到我们整个世界各地的用户。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. A place you didn't quite mention was the user interface itself. We do get questions about discovery and particularly with all the content that's being invested in. There's a survey that I just read about from Nielsen. 2/3 of streaming users know what they want to watch when they go to the service, but another 1/3 look and they spend 8 to 10 minutes, according to the survey, looking for something to watch. So that's my question for you. Does that seem right based on anything you've seen? But also, is that a good thing or a bad thing? And where is the interface, from your perspective, to making that great?

非常好。 你没有提到的一个地方是用户界面本身。 我们确实对发现有疑问,特别是对所有投入的内容都有疑问。我从尼尔森那里读到了一项调查。 根据调查显示,2/3的流媒体用户知道他们在去服务时想要观看什么,但他们花了8到10分钟,寻找值得关注的东西。 所以这是我的问题。 基于您所看到的任何事情,这似乎是正确的吗? 但是,这是好事还是坏事? 从您的角度来看,界面在哪里,以及制作那么棒的界面?

格雷戈里彼得斯

Sure. I mean we obviously track those numbers. We have our own metrics that we use around how our members engage with the service, how much time they spend in the discovery process, et cetera. So we have our own view on that. And I think the Nielsen numbers are -- they're a good sound-bite, but don't reflect the typical experience. And I would say generally, I think we're doing a pretty good job as evidenced by sort of our growth and engagement and general growth in subscribers.
Now, having said that, we're bringing a tremendous number of titles to the service and many titles which people don't know. They haven't heard of it before. So we have an opportunity to continually improve and get better and better in how we present the right titles to the right audience and in a way which is meaningful to them, which explains to them why a show is relevant to them and gets them excited about watching that. And so a lot of those 400, call it, AV tests that we run in a year are around trying to figure out how do we do a better job at that. And we have a healthy road map of good ideas about how to make that better and better, and we're excited about that. We think that, that is a competitive advantage. If we do a good job there, we can deliver a better service experience that unlocks the value of our content library in a more effective way.

当然。我的意思是我们显然跟踪这些数字。我们有自己的指标,我们使用这些指标围绕我们的成员如何参与服务,他们在发现过程中花费了多少时间等等。所以我们对此有自己的看法。我认为尼尔森的数字是 - 它们是一个很好的声音,但不反映典型的经验。我会说,一般来说,我认为我们做得非常好,可以通过我们的增长和参与以及订阅者的普遍增长来证明。

现在,说了这么多,我们为这项服务带来了大量的游戏,还有很多人都不知道。他们以前没有听说过。因此,我们有机会不断改进并越来越好地向正确的受众呈现正确的标题,并以对他们有意义的方式,这向他们解释为什么节目与他们相关并让他们感到兴奋看着那个。因此,我们在一年内运行的AV测试中有很多400,称之为AV试验,试图找出我们如何做得更好。我们有一个关于如何使其变得更好和更好的良好想法的健康路线图,我们对此感到兴奋。我们认为,这是一种竞争优势。如果我们在那里做得很好,我们可以提供更好的服务体验,以更有效的方式释放我们内容库的价值。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. Great. Okay. So I want to talk about some key content-related items. And I think we know the well-publicized topics that I want to get to. But first, Ted, can we just talk about your current strategic point of view on investing? And I'm thinking about allocation of resources across a couple of vectors, global versus local market-focused content, films versus series, and I think Netflix-branded versus licensed. Just if you could tell a sort of from a high level where you stand on how you're splitting your resources there.

非常好。 大。 好的。 所以我想谈谈一些与内容相关的关键项目。 而且我认为我们知道我想要了解的广为人知的主题。 但首先,特德,我们能谈谈你目前对投资的战略观点吗? 而且我正在考虑在几个载体中分配资源,全球与本地市场关注的内容,电影与系列,我认为Netflix品牌与许可。 如果你能从一个高级别的角度讲述你如何在那里分配你的资源。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Well, one of those three that cut across all of them is the original branded content versus license, which is producing the kind of programming that is globally relevant and globally important. And I think we've seen shows like Stranger Things right now that plays almost completely globally, performing off the charts in every country in the world. We saw similarly last quarter with Umbrella Academy, a show that is incredibly a global show. So there's plenty of content that is global and there's a lot of content that's very, very specifically local, and we're balancing constantly between those 2. And every once in a while, you get something out of like La Casa de Papel from Spain that also becomes a global phenomenon that has nothing to do with what we've seen for -- since the beginning of film and television, that almost all content that travels the world is in English from America, and we're seeing those dynamics change pretty rapidly. But at the same time, it's a very large audience and about most of the English-speaking content travels. So we're constantly doing those trade-offs between the 2.
The overarching strategy that we're continuing to drive toward is, over 6 years ago, we got into original programming, betting that the license program would be more and more difficult to come by and that maybe the sources of original -- of license -- of content to license for will be under different levels of strain. That has paid off, we think. We think it's been very important to the business to continue pushing down that road, so the more international, more global, more original film. We also have a large investment coming up in animation that will serve us to see some of the fruits from early next year. So we think we're betting in all the areas of content that our consumers love.

好吧,其中一个涉及所有这些内容的是原始的品牌内容与许可证,这产生了一种全球相关且具有全球重要性的节目。而且我认为我们现在已经看到过像Stranger Things这样的节目几乎完全在全球播放,在世界上每个国家的排行榜上都表现不佳。上个季度,我们与Umbrella Academy一起看到了这个非常令人难以置信的全球展览。因此,有很多内容是全球性的,并且有很多内容非常非常具体地是本地的,我们在这些内容之间不断平衡。每隔一段时间,你就会从西班牙的La Casa de Papel那里得到一些东西。这也成为一种与我们所看到的无关的全球现象 - 自电影和电视开始以来,几乎所有环游世界的内容都是来自美国的英语,我们看到这些动态变化很快。但同时,它是一个非常大的受众和大多数讲英语的内容旅行。所以我们不断在2之间进行权衡。

我们继续推动的首要战略是,在6年多之前,我们进入了原创计划,认为许可计划将越来越难以获得,而且可能是许可证的原始来源 - - 许可的内容将处于不同程度的紧张状态。我们认为,这已经得到了回报。我们认为继续推进这条道路对于企业来说非常重要,因此更具国际化,更全球化,更原创的电影。我们还有大量的动画投入,可以让我们从明年年初开始看到一些成果。所以我们认为我们会投注消费者喜爱的所有内容领域。

迈克尔莫里斯

And just a follow-up. Film has been something where, clearly, we've seen more volume and more focus, at least on a relative basis. Can you talk about why film is incrementally important for the platform overall relative to the series? And is it fair to say that more effort is going there? Because it certainly feels like it from our perspective.

只是一个后续行动。 电影已成为一种东西,显然,我们已经看到更多的音量和更多的焦点,至少在相对的基础上。 你能谈谈为什么电影对于整个平台而言对于整个系列来说是逐渐重要的吗? 可以公平地说,还有更多的努力吗? 因为从我们的角度来看它肯定是这样的。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

I would say more effort than in the past couple of years and I'd say more successful effort in the last -- than in the last couple of years. So that's what I've been most excited about. When you see a film like Murder Mystery hit an audience as large as it has, you'd start thinking, well, we really aren't benchmarking against our ability to license Pay 1 movies. We're benchmarking against the consumer perception of what movie they want to see on Friday night. So that competition is for very large-scale films, for very intimate indie films and everything in between. And I think the team has done an incredible job this year in punching those films out into the zeitgeist, becoming the most talkable moments like Bird Box, like Murder Mystery. We think in Q4, with Irishman and 6 Underground, that these are the kind of films that people just think about when they want to watch a movie and they're not -- not when they want to watch a pay-TV movie.

我会说比过去几年更多的努力,我会说在过去几年中比过去几年更成功。 所以这就是我最为兴奋的事情。 当你看到像谋杀之谜这样的电影对观众的影响力达到最大时,你就会开始思考,好吧,我们真的没有对我们授权付费1电影的能力进行基准测试。 我们正在与消费者对他们希望在周五晚上看什么电影的看法进行对比。 因此竞争对于非常大规模的电影,非常亲密的独立电影以及介于两者之间的一切。 而且我认为今年团队已经做了一项令人难以置信的工作,将这些电影打入了时代精神,成为像Bird Box这样最具说服力的时刻,如谋杀之谜。 我们认为在第四季度,爱尔兰人和地下6人,这些都是人们在想看电影时想到的那种电影而他们不是 - 当他们不想看付费电视时。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. So you mentioned this, Ted, and I'm happy to ask you and open it up more broadly, but really a big question about the high-profile content coming off the service over the course of the next year or so. I think the first question is about impact, and you addressed it a bit in the letter, but when -- we have The Office, we have Friends, we have the Disney-branded content in particular coming off the platform. So again, you addressed it a bit. I'd love to hear any expansion on it. One is just how much of the viewing consumption does this make up? Either person-by-person, I think there'd be differences between the amount of viewing and the number of members that are viewing it for one day. There's also a domestic and international dynamic. And then also just the sort of historical precedent. You have had content like Family Guy, X-Files, things like that, that has come off. What -- help us with the precedent to how we should think about this.

非常好。 所以你提到了这一点,Ted,我很高兴地问你并更广泛地开放它,但对于明年左右的服务中引人注目的高调内容来说真的是一个很大的问题。 我认为第一个问题是关于影响,你在信中稍微解决了一下,但是当我们有办公室,我们有朋友时,我们特别关注迪士尼品牌的内容。 所以,你再次解决它。 我很想听听它有什么扩展。 一个是观看消费量占多少? 无论是逐个人,我认为观看量与观看一天的会员数量之间存在差异。 还有国内和国际动态。 然后也只是那种历史先例。 你有像Family Guy,X-Files这样的内容,这些内容已经脱落。 什么 - 帮助我们了解如何思考这个问题的先例。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Since we started streaming 12 years ago, the consistent dynamic is that content comes and goes. The licenses come on, they expire, they get competitive, they go somewhere else, that's been true. This is the kind of second round with the Pay 1 Disney films. Remember back in the day, we used to license them through Starz and had them on Netflix and it was a big swing off, along with films from Sony at the same time.
So we've seen the entire output from Fox. We've seen the entire Nickelodeon kids output come and go on the site. And we grow through that by, we believe, by making these early investments in original programming and getting our consumer and our members much more attuned to the expectation that we're going to create their next favorite show, not that we're going to be the place where you can get anything every time. And we think there's more value in that proposition than there would be in the kind of low price aggregator.

自从我们12年前开始流式传输以来,一贯的动态就是内容来来去去。 许可证出现,它们过期,它们具有竞争力,它们会转移到其他地方,这是真的。 这是付费1迪士尼电影的第二轮。 记得在当天,我们曾经通过Starz获得许可,并将它们放在Netflix上,这是一个很大的转折点,同时还有来自索尼的电影。

所以我们已经看到了Fox的全部输出。 我们已经看到整个Nickelodeon孩子的输出进出现场了。 我们相信,通过对原创节目进行早期投资,让我们的消费者和我们的会员更加适应我们将要创造他们下一个最喜欢的节目的期望,而不是我们要去 是每次都可以获得任何东西的地方。 我们认为该命题的价值高于低价聚合器的价值。

Spencer Neumann

Mike, the only thing I might add to that is just, as Ted said, we've been planning for this for a long time, but when you look at our -- we don't have any overconcentration in any single studio or any single show. We talked about it in the letter. Any single show, even the most viewed shows are single-digit -- low single-digit percentages of viewing. And there is going to be -- as content rolls off the service and when and if it rolls off the service, it's going to be over time. If you look out 3, 4, 5 years from now, that second run license content, there's still a very meaningful portion of what's on the service today that will still be on the service 4 or 5 years from today. So we're just going to continue to focus on our strategy of developing more and more original programming. And obviously, as Ted said, if there's a second round license programming that's available, then that's still part of the business.

迈克,我唯一可以补充的就是,正如泰德所说,我们已经计划了很长时间,但是当你看到我们的时候 - 我们在任何一个工作室或任何工作室都没有任何过度集中 单秀。 我们在信中谈到了这件事。 任何一个节目,即使是观看次数最多的节目都是单位数 - 低百分比的观看率。 随着内容推出服务以及何时以及如果它推出服务,它将随着时间的推移而出现。 如果您从现在开始观察3年,4年,5年,第二次运行许可证内容,那么今天服务中仍有一个非常有意义的部分仍将是今天4或5年后的服务。 因此,我们将继续关注我们开发越来越多原创程序的策略。 显然,正如Ted所说,如果有第二轮许可证编程可用,那么这仍然是业务的一部分。

迈克尔莫里斯

Understood. Before, we talked about that allocation of budget there. The international versus domestic dynamic for some of that specific high-profile content that's coming off, is the consumption of it and the availability of it consistent on a global basis? Or is this primarily a domestic phenomenon? How should we think about that?

了解。 在此之前,我们谈到了那里的预算分配。 一些特定的高调内容即将到来的国际与国内动态是它的消费及其在全球范围内的可用性? 或者这主要是国内现象? 我们该怎么想呢?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

It's primarily domestic now. Like it's -- by way of example, we just recently added Big Bang Theory to a lot of our international territory. We never had it available to our -- in the U.S. So I think it's international -- it's more of a domestic-driven initiative today that -- and success, we believe, it will be an international one, too.

它现在主要是国内的。 就像它一样 - 例如,我们最近刚刚将宇宙大爆炸理论添加到我们的许多国际领域。 我们从来没有把它提供给我们 - 在美国所以我认为它是国际性的 - 它更像是一个国内驱动的倡议,而且我们相信,它也将成为一个国际性的倡议。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. And then, of course, you're spending money on this content. So it's not like it's just leaving -- you have resources being freed up, if you will.

好的。 然后,当然,你在这些内容上花钱。 所以它不会像它刚刚离开 - 如果你愿意,你可以释放资源。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Absolutely.

绝对。

迈克尔莫里斯

When we talk about though the availability of product, if there's one thing to take a sort of iconic piece of content off the shelf and not have to have it recreated. When we think about redeploying that money and expanding your budget even further for originals, are there constraints on whether it be talent, any types of resources available? Or do you think that there's ample opportunity to go out and redeploy that?

当我们谈论产品的可用性时,如果有一件事情需要现成一种标志性的内容而不必重新创建它。 当我们考虑重新部署这些资金并进一步扩大原始预算时,是否存在人才,可用的任何类型的资源? 或者你认为有充足的机会出去重新部署吗?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

We definitely think there's ample opportunity, particularly across film and television. Like we said, a couple of years ago, we were not investing in animation at all. And today, we're investing very aggressively. I also think that the emergence of the next global storyteller being from anywhere in the world certainly opens up that opportunity, and we are becoming much more seasoned producers all over the world to do that.

我们绝对认为有充足的机会,尤其是电影和电视。 就像我们说的那样,几年前,我们根本没有投资动画。 今天,我们非常积极地投资。 我还认为,来自世界任何地方的下一个全球讲故事者的出现肯定会打开这个机会,而我们正在成为全世界更多经验丰富的制作人。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. Great. Now, you are investing more on your own capabilities, of course. And Greg, I think that one thing that we don't talk about much is the technology side of the studio and production. Is there an opportunity for Netflix as a technology company in addition to being a media company to take advantage of some opportunities to be a more efficient studio, a better studio in terms of what you're working with Ted on?

好的。 大。 现在,当然,您正在为自己的能力投入更多。 而格雷格,我认为我们谈不上的一件事是工作室和制作的技术方面。 Netflix作为一家科技公司是否有机会成为一家媒体公司,利用一些机会成为一个更高效的工作室,就你与Ted合作的方式而言,这是一个更好的工作室?

格雷戈里彼得斯

Yes. So if you think about the number of titles that we are producing and the strength that we have in technology and analytics, we do think that there is an opportunity back to the discussion we just had around making a fixed cost investment, either in terms of efficiency benefits or outcome benefits, just the quality of the dollars that get to the screen that impact the user across the range of titles that we are producing. Now, I would say it's early days here. So we're trying now replacing a bunch of bets and we'll see sort of how those bets play out.
But just to give you a sense of -- make it a little bit less abstract and more concrete, when you think about after show or a movie has been made, you make a trailer to promote that. We use this on-service. We use this off-service, right? And typically, the first step in that process is someone goes through and they look at all of the scenes in that show, for example, and they inventory like who are the characters, what's happening there, and that sort of provides us index so that they can actually take that material and then from that, use that index to assemble, in the creative process, what's a compelling trailer. Well, we can increasingly use automation, use a technology investment to basically do that indexing process so that our trailer creators can really focus their time and energy on the creative process, taking the result of that automated process and putting together something which is super compelling, tells a story of what the show is in an authentic way and makes it more attractive to users. That's just one example of the kind of investments that we are making that we think have that kind of returning leverage against scale.

是。因此,如果您考虑我们正在制作的游戏数量以及我们在技术和分析方面的实力,我们确实认为有机会回到我们刚刚进行的关于进行固定成本投资的讨论时,无论是效率优势或结果优势,只是在我们正在制作的标题范围内影响用户的屏幕上的美元质量。现在,我想说这是在这里的早期。所以我们现在正在尝试取代一堆赌注,我们会看到这些赌注如何发挥作用。

但只是为了让你有一种感觉 - 让它变得不那么抽象,更具体,当你想到演出或电影制作完成后,你制作一个预告片来推广它。我们使用这种服务。我们使用这项服务,对吧?通常情况下,该过程的第一步是有人经历,他们会查看该节目中的所有场景,例如,他们会像人物一样盘点,那里发生了什么,这种类型为我们提供索引,以便他们实际上可以采用那些材料,然后从中使用该索引在创作过程中组装什么是引人注目的预告片。好吧,我们可以越来越多地使用自动化,使用技术投资来基本完成索引过程,这样我们的预告片制作者就可以将他们的时间和精力集中在创作过程上,从而实现自动化流程的结果,并将超级引人注目的内容组合在一起,以真实的方式讲述该节目的故事,并使其对用户更具吸引力。这只是我们正在进行的那种投资的一个例子,我们认为这种投资具有对规模的回报杠杆作用。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

And I would just add that being an efficient producer is a very good thing to do obviously, but being an efficient distributor and being an efficient marketer is P&L-changing. So that's a way to think about. We're working in all 3 of those things at the same time.

我只想补充一点,作为一个高效的生产者显然是一件非常好的事情,但作为一个有效的经销商并成为一个有效的营销人员是P&L改变。 所以这是一种思考方式。 我们同时处理所有这三件事。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. I want to move a little bit to the reporting and the granular reporting of data that you referenced on the last call. One of the places we're seeing it more clearly is in the U.K. with the top 10 list. So my 2 questions are, #1, can you share any results from that U.K. top 10 list, #1? And #2, what can we, as consumers or members, expect going forward? And then I have one follow-up with respect to what it means for the talent, of course.

非常好。 我想稍微谈谈您在上次调用时引用的数据的报告和粒度报告。 我们更清楚地看到它的一个地方是在英国排名前十的名单。 所以我的两个问题是,#1,你可以分享英国排名前十的名单中的任何结果吗?#1? 而#2,作为消费者或成员,我们可以期待什么呢? 当然,我对人才的意义有一个跟进。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Well, the one thing we are -- we said this in the last call as well. We think we are being much more transparent with the creators and increasingly with the public in terms of what's being viewed on Netflix, mostly because I think people use a lot of different inputs to figure out what they want to see, and popularity is definitely one of them. And we're trying to figure out how to balance off popularity against some all the other personalization tools to get people that opportunity that if they want to see what everyone else is watching in their country, in their city, in their town, that we can present that to them in a way that helps them make better choices. But in general, I think we're still testing the best application of that and it's still very much in active testing mode.

好吧,我们有一件事 - 我们也在最后一次电话会议上说过这一点。 我们认为我们对创作者更加透明,并且越来越多地与公众讨论在Netflix上观看的内容,主要是因为我认为人们会使用很多不同的输入来弄清楚他们想要看到什么,而人气肯定是一个 他们 而且我们正在试图找出如何平衡人气与其他所有个性化工具之间的关系,以便让人们有机会,如果他们想要了解其他人在他们的国家,城市,城镇中观看的内容,那么我们 能以一种帮助他们做出更好选择的方式向他们展示这一点。 但总的来说,我认为我们仍在测试它的最佳应用,它仍处于主动测试模式。

格雷戈里彼得斯

Yes. I'd just want to comment. I think we feel like there's a great way to actually enable that personalization, but enable popularity signaling for the users that want it. It's just basically looking at the folks that use that popularity as a factor in the decision-making they take about on what to watch next and making sure that those popularity signals are available and very present for those users. And for users who don't seem to want that, then we can sort of make those less present.

是。 我只想发表评论。 我认为我们觉得有一种很好的方式来实现个性化,但为想要它的用户启用流行度信号。 它只是基本上看那些使用这种受欢迎程度的人,他们决定接下来要看什么,并确保那些流行信号可用并且非常适合这些用户。 对于那些似乎不想要那样的用户,那么我们可以将那些不那么存在的用户。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Yes. And there -- as an example of a very granular piece of data that we shared recently was in the first 4 days of Stranger Things 3, more than 18 million people watched the entire season. And why share that number? Because the very next follow-on to that was, wow, I'm one of those 18 million. I want to tell my friends about it. Or oh my God, I want to be one of those 18 million. Or are you one of those 18 million? So it creates a lot of excitement in the fan base when you can give them some data to chew on.

是。 而且 - 作为我们最近分享的一个非常精细的数据的例子,在Stranger Things 3的前4天,超过1800万人观看了整个赛季。 为什么分享这个数字? 因为接下来就是这样,哇,我是1800万人中的一员。 我想告诉我的朋友们。 或者,天哪,我想成为1800万人中的一员。 或者你是那1800万人中的一员? 因此,当你可以给他们一些数据来咀嚼时,它会在粉丝群中产生很多兴奋。

迈克尔莫里斯

So from a public perspective or from a member perspective, should we expect more consistency in that type of data? Or is it going to be a one-off on selected items that you feel are valuable?

那么从公众的角度或从成员的角度来看,我们是否应该期望这种类型的数据更加一致? 或者,对于您觉得有价值的特定商品,这是一次性的吗?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Yes. I think we'll be increasingly transparent with producers and then, over time, more and more. I really like that it's important for us to help condition the market to understand what the viewing data is so it's not being compared apples-to-oranges against things that are not similar. And right now, if we start publishing tomorrow, we'd be the only streaming service doing it.

是。 我认为我们对制作人越来越透明,随着时间的推移越来越多。 我真的很喜欢我们帮助调整市场以了解观看数据是什么非常重要,因此不会将苹果与橙子进行比较,而不是相似的事情。 现在,如果我们明天开始发布,我们将成为唯一一个这样做的流媒体服务。

迈克尔莫里斯

Right. Right. So the value of this data to your content partners, content creators, as you create more of these large-budget films, you have actors or other talent that historically perhaps were compensated on box office performance. How are you approaching that when you want to make these big-budget films and you want to incentivize talent? And maybe the flip side to that is perhaps you have a little protection if a film doesn't do as well. In the traditional model, is there a way that this data starts giving you both the incentive and the protection?

对。 对。 因此,这些数据对您的内容合作伙伴,内容创作者的价值,当您创建更多这些大预算的电影时,您有演员或其他人才,历史上可能在票房表现上得到补偿。 当你想制作这些大预算电影而你想激励人才时,你是如何接近的呢? 如果一部电影做得不好,也许你可能会有一点保护。 在传统模型中,有没有一种方法可以让这些数据开始为您提供激励和保护?

西奥多·萨兰多斯

Yes. I think -- and what we're trying to do is it's a very new model, particularly for box office-friendly talent who want to make their next big film in Netflix. So we have to figure out a model that, in success, how would they be compensated? The fact that it's guaranteed, there's some discount applied for that. And in fact, if it's paid out over a quicker period, there will be discounts applied for that. But ultimately, we want the economics to be pretty neutral or at least are similar to what they would be if they had a big hit film in the theaters. And that's what we negotiate film-by-film, talent with -- actor-by-actor.

是。 我认为 - 我们要做的是它是一个非常新的模式,特别是对于想要在Netflix制作下一部大片的票房友好人才。 因此,我们必须找出一个成功的模型,它们将如何得到补偿? 事实上,它是有保证的,有一些折扣适用于此。 事实上,如果它在更快的时间内支付,那么将会有折扣。 但最终,我们希望经济学是非常中立的,或者至少与他们在影院上映的热门影片相似。 这就是我们通过电影,演员和演员的角色进行谈判。

迈克尔莫里斯

Great. I'll open this up to anyone, Reed perhaps. Looking at the product placement or rather product partnerships for Stranger Things, certainly very high profile, a lot of buzz, very broad. In the letter, you referenced it as being more about building the product itself versus monetizing. Does it become a monetizeable part of the business at some point? Or put differently, expand a bit on the benefit of doing that and how that might be broadened to other properties.

非常好。 我会向任何人开放,也许是里德。 看看产品的位置或者更确切地说是Stranger Things的产品合作伙伴关系,当然非常高调,很多嗡嗡声,非常广泛。 在信中,您将其称为更多关于构建产品本身与货币化的关系。 它在某些时候是否会成为业务的货币化部分? 或者换句话说,扩展一下这样做的好处以及如何扩展到其他属性。

里德黑斯廷斯

Well, we're monetizing it today in more membership growth. The focus is get more people excited about Stranger Things. So they join Netflix. They tell their friends about it. So this year, we'll add about $5 billion of incremental subscription revenue, which is almost all of gross margin, and that's faster than any entertainment company has grown in the history of the world. So what we want to do is keep that engine going, keep that subscriber engine going and not get distracted with alternative revenue sources which just don't add up when you're growing $5 billion a year. So the core focus is create all these merchandising opportunities, tie-ins, touch points so that you feel the Stranger Things energy so that more people join. So together, as we do monetize all that, it's just we're monetizing it through our giant engine rather than through little sidecar vehicles.

好吧,我们今天通过更多的会员增长将其货币化。 重点是让更多人对Stranger Things感到兴奋。 所以他们加入了Netflix。 他们告诉他们的朋友。 所以今年,我们将增加约50亿美元的增量订阅收入,几乎全部是毛利率,而且这比世界历史上任何一家娱乐公司都要快。 因此,我们想要做的是保持引擎运转,保持用户引擎的运行,不要因为每年增加50亿美元而没有增加额外的收入来源而分心。 因此,核心重点是创造所有这些商品销售机会,搭售,接触点,让您感受到更多人加入的陌生事物能量。 总而言之,正如我们所做的那样货币化,我们只是通过我们的巨型发动机而不是通过小型边车来货币化。

Spencer Wang

Mike, I think we have one more...

迈克,我想我们还有一个......

西奥多·萨兰多斯

You should think about -- particularly in the case of Stranger Things 3, you should think about all those product partnerships as a character in the film -- in the show. Remember, the show is set in 1985 and it's set in the heart of -- when the big summer blockbuster movies were jammed with product placement, and there was really a creative choice when they talked about pitching that season out more than -- almost two years ago.

你应该考虑 - 特别是在Stranger Things 3的情况下,你应该考虑所有这些产品合作伙伴作为电影中的角色 - 在节目中。 请记住,这个节目是在1985年制作的,并且它的核心是 - 当大型夏季大片电影被产品放置卡住时,当他们谈论推销那个季节超过 - 几乎两个时,真的有一个创造性的选择 几年前。

Spencer Wang

Mike, we have time for one last question, please.

迈克,我们有时间提出最后一个问题。

迈克尔莫里斯

Okay. Great. Usually, we like to do a big picture, but this is one very specific financial question that we get a lot, and it's really about the margin potential of the business over time. I think it ties together a lot of these different things that we just talked about. But Spencer, we've had the chance to hear your opinion a bit. I'd love to hear you expand on it. Because Netflix is a single revenue stream product, you are very clear in the letter that advertising is not part of your future despite what we read in the press. Can Netflix ever achieve the type of margins that we've seen historically out of cable networks, be it an HBO, which is a unique single revenue model whether -- or another network that was a dual revenue stream? Or are we inherently going to be sub-historical average margins for Netflix on a global basis?

好的。 大。 通常,我们喜欢做大局,但这是一个非常具体的财务问题,我们得到了很多,而且这真的是关于业务的利润率潜力。 我认为它将我们刚才谈到的很多不同的东西联系在一起。 但斯宾塞,我们有机会听到你的意见。 我很想听你扩展它。 因为Netflix是一个单一的收入流产品,所以尽管我们在媒体上看到了广告,但你在信中明确表示广告并不是你未来的一部分。 Netflix能否实现我们历史上从有线网络中看到的利润率类型,无论是HBO,这是一个独特的单一收入模式 - 或者是另一个双收入流的网络? 或者我们在全球范围内固有的Netflix平均利润率是多少?

Spencer Neumann

I mean, you take it or you, Reed? I can take it.

我的意思是,你接受它还是你,里德? 我可以接受。

里德黑斯廷斯

You got to do it.

你必须这样做。

Spencer Neumann

Okay. Well, look, yes, I think, yes, we've demonstrated over the last few years that we're focused on building a very healthy long-term business model and growing those margins roughly 300 basis points for the last few years to a target of 13% this year. When we go for -- when I look forward in terms of the margin potential and scale the business, first, Reed talked about it a bit earlier, our aspiration, for a business that's already at 150 million paying members, is to be a multiple of our current size. So that is a network with a relative scale for a premium entertainment network that really hasn't been seen before for those comparables that you mentioned in terms of those historical margins, so that works in our favor.
And we also think about the revenue per any individual subscriber, and whether that's advantaged with a dual revenue stream or a single revenue stream. And our calculus now for building a global network is that we're best served to focus on that single revenue stream, winning those moments of truth with a great member experience and then continuing to price occasionally against that in a great value proposition when we start with great content, create experience and then offer it at a reasonable price. We think we can do that in a way that obviously continues to scale margins in a very healthy way.
We're not going to provide specific guidance. But when you look at those comparables, there are some things that work in our favor and some things that don't. So scale is in our favor. We think the subscription model is a terrific model for us. So certainly, we believe that there's going to be more margin accretion over time. And again, I'm going to kind of leave it at that, but you can assume that we have a long way to go.

好的。好吧,看,是的,我想,是的,我们在过去几年中已经证明,我们专注于建立一个非常健康的长期商业模式,并在过去几年将这些利润增加到大约300个基点。今年的目标是13%。当我们选择的时候 - 当我期待利润率潜力并扩大业务规模时,首先,里德早一点谈到它,我们的愿望是,对于已经拥有1.5亿付费会员的企业来说,我们的愿望是我们目前的规模。因此,对于高级娱乐网络来说,这是一个相对规模的网络,对于那些您提到的可比较的历史边缘,这些网络实际上是前所未有的,所以这对我们有利。

我们还考虑每个订户的收入,以及这是否具有双重收入流或单一收入流的优势。我们现在用于建立全球网络的计算方法是,我们最好能够专注于单一的收入来源,凭借出色的会员经验赢得那些真实的时刻,然后在我们开始时以高价值主张继续定价内容丰富,创造经验,然后以合理的价格提供。我们认为我们可以通过显着继续以非常健康的方式扩大利润率的方式来实现这一目标。

我们不打算提供具体的指导。但是当你看到那些可比对象时,有些东西对我们有利,有些东西对我们有利。因此,规模对我们有利。我们认为订阅模式对我们来说是一个了不起的模型。当然,我们相信随着时间的推移会有更多的保证金增加。而且,我会对此表示赞同,但你可以认为我们还有很长的路要走。

西奥多·萨兰多斯

And Mike, well, we don't want to end on something that dry. I could say two things really quickly. One would be that -- to congratulate HBO on an incredible record-breaking year at the -- for Emmy nominations. They continue to be the gold standard that we chase, and we're really thrilled for them. And also to the end of this month, in July 26, we're going to wrap up our seventh season, our seventh and final season of Orange is the New Black. And I wanted to thank Jenji Kohan for her incredible vision that helped really drive this whole idea of Internet television to new heights. And the show wraps up in a really incredible and emotional high and we hope the fans love it.

迈克,嗯,我们不想以干燥的东西结束。 我可以很快说出两件事。 其中之一就是 - 祝贺HBO在艾美奖提名中取得令人难以置信的创纪录的一年。 它们仍然是我们追逐的黄金标准,我们真的为它们感到激动。 而且到本月底,在7月26日,我们将结束我们的第七季,我们的第七季和最后一季的Orange是New Black。 我要感谢Jenji Kohan的不可思议的愿景,这有助于真正将互联网电视的整体理念推向新的高度。 这个节目包含了一个非常令人难以置信的情感高度,我们希望粉丝喜欢它。

迈克尔莫里斯

Awesome. Great. Thank you for livening that up, Ted.

真棒。 大。 谢谢你的热爱,特德。

里德黑斯廷斯

Thank you, Mike.

谢谢你,迈克。

迈克尔莫里斯

Thanks.

谢谢。

相关问题

  • Netflix, Inc. 电话会议
  • Netflix, Inc. 财务报告

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