SSab 瑞典钢铁公司 (SSAAF) 首席执行官 Martin Lindqvist 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

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SSab Swedish Steel AB (OTC:SSAAF) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call July 19, 2019 4:30 AM ET

SSab Swedish Steel AB([OTC:SSAAF])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年7月19日美国东部时间上午4:30

公司参与者

Per Hillström - Head, IR
Martin Lindqvist - President & CEO
Håkan Folin - CFO

  • PerHillström - 负责人,IR
  • Martin Lindqvist - 总裁兼首席执行官
  • HåkanFolin - 首席财务官

电话会议参与者

Alain Gabriel - Morgan Stanley
Ioannis Masvoulas - Macquarie
Krishan Agarwal - Citigroup
Gustaf Schwerin - Pareto Securities
Oskar Lindstrom - Danske Bank
Bastian Synagowitz - Deutsche Bank
Cedar Ekblom - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Christian Kopfer - Nordea
Robert Redin - Carnegie

  • 阿兰加布里埃尔 - 摩根士丹利
  • Ioannis Masvoulas - 麦格理
  • Krishan Agarwal - 花旗集团
  • 古斯塔夫什未林 - 帕累托证券
  • Oskar Lindstrom - 丹麦银行
  • Bastian Synagowitz - 德意志银行
  • Cedar Ekblom - 美国银行美林证券
  • Christian Kopfer - Nordea
  • 罗伯特雷丁 - 卡内基

PerHillström

Good morning and welcome to this presentation of SSAB Second Quarter Report. I am Per Hillström, Head of Investor Relations, and with us today is President and CEO, Martin Lindqvist; and our CFO, Håkan Folin. And the agenda, Martin will start here with the summary of the quarter, also going through the divisions. Håkan will pick up on the financials, and then Martin comes back and presents the outlook, and finally we will open up for questions. So by that, please, Martin, take the stage.

早上好,欢迎参阅SSAB第二季度报告。 我是投资者关系主管PerHillström,今天和我们一起担任总裁兼首席执行官Martin Lindqvist; 和我们的首席财务官HåkanFolin。 而议程,马丁将从这里开始与季度的总结,也通过分部。 Håkan将接受财务报告,然后Martin回来展示前景,最后我们将提出问题。 所以,请马丁走上舞台。

Martin Lindqvist

Thank you, Per. So what did we then see during the second quarter? If we start with the Americas, we saw fairly decent demand from end users, but we also saw that Steel Service Centers were quite cautious, for us deliveries to Steel Service Centers in Americas, was roughly 50,000 ton lower than Q1, and Q1 was not strong either.
We saw spot prices decreasing during the quarter, but also raw material costs or scrap cost decreasing. In Europe the situation was slightly different. We saw weaker demand in Automotive, some cautious sentiment from distribution or Steel Service Centers. What we saw was spot prices decreasing slightly during the quarter, but what affected us the most was the rapidly increasing costs for raw material, and we had, at the end of the quarter, or as we speak, iron ore prices of $120 per ton.
And when we started this year, we were at roughly at $65, $70, so rapid increase of raw material cost. And I must admit that a more rapid increase than I could foresee when we released the first quarter report. If we look at the group result, it was SEK1.3 billion, SEK300 million down compared to Q2, 2018, and also compared to Q1, 2019.
If we look into the results, I would say strong performance from Americas with a good year-on-year improvement, Special Steel improved slightly and then Europe declining compared to last year and the major explanation for that is, as said, the higher iron ore costs and Håkan will come back to that in the bridges.
Continue to generate strong operating cash flows, and as you know, we typically generate more cash flow or better stronger cash flow the second half of every year compared to the first half. If we look into the divisions, Special Steels, an EBITDA margin of close to 14%, which I think is fairly decent. We saw higher prices and a better product mix. We saw good demand in Q2 and we expect the demand to continue to be good in Q3 with the usual seasonal slowdown.
We had shipments at the same levels as Q1 this year and Q2 last year. And we saw also here high variable cost and mainly raw material cost in fact affecting Special Steels. Not at the same amount as in Europe where we have our mill up in Luleå, where we see the impact from the increased iron ore cost more directly where we have no stocks or consume from hand to mouth more.
Europe, as said, much lower results, SEK841 million lower compared to Q2 last year. Clearly higher raw material costs, lower shipments and also lower capacity utilization. In Americas, good demand continued in several segments, and as said, lower apparent demand or buying pattern from Steel Service Centers. I think this is a strong result, 23% EBITDA margin is quite good in the steel business. So a very good performance from SSAB Americas even though shipments were slightly lower compared to Q1 and Q2 last year.
Tibnor, stable demand, seasonal slowdown, sales higher and that is because part of the quarter was including Sanistål, the distributor we bought in Denmark, where we are going now from a market share of roughly 7%, 8% for Tibnor up to 30%, and become strictly a #2 in distribution in Denmark and that is an important part for SSAB, where we will have a much stronger footprint in Denmark.

谢谢,Per。那么我们在第二季度看到了什么呢?如果我们从美洲开始,我们看到最终用户的需求相当不错,但我们也看到钢铁服务中心非常谨慎,因为我们向美洲的钢铁服务中心交货,比第一季度低约50,000吨,而Q1则不是也强。

我们看到本季度现货价格下跌,但原材料成本或废钢成本也在下降。在欧洲,情况略有不同。我们看到汽车需求疲软,分销或钢铁服务中心的情绪谨慎。我们看到的是本季度现货价格小幅下跌,但对我们影响最大的是原材料成本的快速上涨,而且在本季度末,或者我们所说的,铁矿石价格每吨120美元。

当我们今年开始时,我们大约在65美元,70美元,因此原材料成本迅速增加。而且我必须承认,当我们发布第一季度报告时,增长速度比我预期的要快。如果我们看一下集团业绩,那么它与去年第二季度相比减少了13亿瑞典克朗,比2019年第一季度减少了3亿瑞典克朗。

如果我们看一下结果,我会说美洲的表现强劲,同比改善,特钢稍微改善,然后欧洲与去年相比下降,对此的主要解释是,如上所述,铁矿石成本和Håkan将重新回到桥梁中。

继续产生强劲的经营现金流,如您所知,与上半年相比,我们通常会在每年的下半年产生更多的现金流或更强劲的现金流。如果我们研究特殊钢的分部,EBITDA利润率接近14%,我认为这是相当不错的。我们看到更高的价格和更好的产品组合。我们看到第二季度需求良好,我们预计第三季度需求将继续保持良好,且通常会出现季节性放缓。

我们的出货量与今年第一季度和去年第二季度相同。我们在这里也看到了高可变成本和主要原材料成本,实际上影响了特种钢。与我们在吕勒奥的工厂的欧洲不一样,在那里我们看到铁矿石成本增加的影响更直接地在我们没有库存或消费更多的情况下。

如上所述,欧洲的结果低得多,比去年第二季度减少了8.41亿瑞典克朗。原材料成本明显较高,出货量较低,产能利用率也较低。在美洲,几个细分市场的需求持续增长,如上所述,钢铁服务中心的表观需求或购买模式较低。我认为这是一个强有力的结果,钢铁业务的EBITDA利润率为23%。因此SSAB Americas的表现非常出色,尽管与去年第一季度和第二季度相比,出货量略有下降。

Tibnor,需求稳定,季节性放缓,销售额增加,这是因为本季度的部分时间包括我们在丹麦购买的经销商Sanistål,我们现在的市场份额约为7%,Tibnor的市场份额为8%至30 %,并严格地成为丹麦的2号分销商,这是SSAB的重要组成部分,我们将在丹麦拥有更强大的足迹。

We had lower margins compared to Q2, 2018 and that is lower margins and also inventory revaluation. We had a positive inventory revaluation in Q2 last year, which we didn't have this year.
Ruukki Construction. I think fairly decent performance. Sales up, higher volumes in all business units. We're continuing to improve our product business. We've also, yesterday, signed a contract to divest Building Systems. So what we have left now in Ruukki Construction is roofing and components, and that is core business for us.
So we have, in that aspect, optimized the portfolio, Building System did not consume a lot of our own steals, but Roofing and Components are the biggest customer we have for painted materials. So now we have taken Ruukki Construction into what we want it to be. We have sold Russia, we have sold Romania, we have closed some operations and now systems. So I think now we have the part that is really core for us.
With that, Håkan, I leave the floor to you.

与2018年第二季度相比,我们的利润率较低,这是利润率较低以及库存重估。 我们去年第二季度的库存重新估值是正值,今年我们没有。

Ruukki建筑。 我认为相当不错的表现。 所有业务部门的销售额增加,销量增加。 我们将继续改进我们的产品业务。 昨天,我们还签署了剥离建筑系统的合同。 所以我们现在在Ruukki Construction留下的是屋顶和组件,这对我们来说是核心业务。

因此,在这方面,我们已经优化了产品组合,建筑系统并没有消耗大量我们自己的抢断,但屋顶和组件是我们对涂料的最大客户。 所以现在我们把Ruukki Construction带到了我们想要的东西。 我们已售出俄罗斯,我们已售出罗马尼亚,我们已经关闭了一些业务和现在的系统。 所以我认为现在我们拥有真正核心的部分。

有了这个,Håkan,我请你发言。

HåkanFolin

Thank you, Martin, and good morning, everyone. I will, as usual, go through some more details on the financials, including our cash flow, balance sheet, and also the raw material situation.
But if we start with an overview, we saw a slightly weaker trend in our group earnings now during the second quarter. Sales were actually still on the high level, above SEK20 billion. They were up 7% compared to Q2 last year, and 3% compared to first quarter of the year. If we compare to last year the same quarter, it was mainly driven by increased prices and also weaker Swedish krona.
If we then look at shipments, they were slightly down compared to Q1 and down by 5% compared to Q2 last year, mainly driven by SSAB Europe were shipments were down 6%. EBITDA at the level of about SEK2.4 billion and the EBITDA margin although down slightly from Q1, it's still at around 12%, with still at a decent level, I would say.
Finally when we look at EBITDA per ton delivered steel, while given the lower profitability, it went down around SEK200 versus Q1. However, if we compare to Q2 last year, given that we also had lower shipments, we were actually on the same level at around SEK1,400 per ton delivered steel.
If we then look at what happened between the quarters in terms of profitability, comparing to Q2 last year, we lost around SEK300 million. Prices were up with SEK620 million and were impacting EBIT with SEK620 million. This was mainly driven by Americas and also Special Steels, while for Europe, prices were actually slightly down.
If we look at volumes, negative impact of SEK220 million, and as said before, this was driven by Europe with minus 6% in shipments, Special Steels on the other hand had a flat development year-over-year.
Variable COGS had an impact of SEK365 million, and this is to a very large extent, driven by the increased iron ore prices. As Martin talked about, increase has been rather rapid and significant, and if we compare spot market prices we find now versus 1-year ago, they are roughly doubled SEK60 versus SEK120. In here, we have a actually positive development on the scrap side, where scrap is lower now in Q2 than last year but given the extreme rise in iron ore that is over shading that part.
A bit higher fixed cost compared to last year, or close to SEK400 million, few reason for that: one is that we have been running 2 blast furnaces in Oxelosund, we were not last year. We have a very strong focus, as you know, on production stability. We have increased our maintenance and repair work during the quarter. And then in the U.S., even though we call it fixed cost, salaries are extremely variable in the U.S., and when we are producing a lot and when we're earning more money, salaries in U.S. by automatically goes up.
FX compared to last year had a slightly positive impact, SEK80 million. The positive impact comes from the weak Swedish krona in terms of sales. On the other hand, since we buy most of our raw material in dollar, that to a large extent, offset it but slightly positive. And then here in other -- well, it's SEK40 million, it's not much to talk about but it's slightly lower capacity utilization this quarter than last year.

谢谢你,马丁,大家早上好。像往常一样,我将详细介绍财务数据,包括现金流量,资产负债表以及原材料情况。

但如果我们从概述开始,我们看到第二季度的集团收益略微走弱。实际销售额仍处于高位,超过200亿瑞典克朗。与去年第二季度相比,它们增长了7%,与去年第一季度相比增长了3%。如果我们与去年同一季度相比,主要是由于价格上涨和瑞典克朗走弱。

如果我们看看出货量,它们与第一季度相比略有下降,与去年第二季度相比下降了5%,主要是由于SSAB欧洲的出货量下降了6%。我想说,EBITDA约为24亿瑞典克朗,EBITDA利润率虽然比第一季度略有下降,仍然在12%左右,仍然处于一个不错的水平。

最后,当我们观察每吨交付的钢铁EBITDA时,虽然盈利能力较低,但与第一季度相比下降了约200瑞典克朗。然而,如果我们与去年的第二季度进行比较,鉴于我们的出货量也较低,我们实际上处于同一水平,每吨交付的钢材约为1,400瑞典克朗。

如果我们再看一下这些季度之间的盈利能力,与去年的第二季相比,我们损失了大约3亿瑞典克朗。价格上涨6.2亿瑞典克朗,影响息税前利润6.2亿瑞典克朗。这主要是由美洲和特种钢驱动的,而在欧洲,价格实际上略有下降。

如果我们看一下产量,负面影响为2.2亿瑞典克朗,如前所述,这是由欧洲的出货量减去6%所致,另一方面,特殊钢的开发量同比持平。

可变的COGS产生了3.75亿瑞典克朗的影响,这在很大程度上受到铁矿石价格上涨的推动。正如马丁谈到的那样,增长相当迅速和显着,如果我们比较我们现在发现的现货市场价格与1年前相比,它们大约翻了60瑞典克朗,而不是120瑞典克朗。在这里,我们在废钢方面实际上是积极的发展,第二季度的废钢比去年低,但鉴于铁矿石的极端增长超过了遮阳部分。

与去年相比固定成本略高,或接近4亿瑞典克朗,几乎没有理由:一个是我们在Oxelosund运行了2个高炉,我们不是去年。如您所知,我们非常关注生产稳定性。我们在本季度增加了维护和维修工作。然后在美国,尽管我们称之为固定成本,但美国的薪水变化极大,而且当我们生产很多钱时,当我们赚取更多钱时,美国的工资会自动上升。

FX与去年相比产生了略微正面的影响,达到了800万瑞典克朗。积极的影响来自瑞典克朗在销售方面的疲软。另一方面,由于我们以美元购买大部分原材料,这在很大程度上抵消了它,但略微积极。然后在其他方面 - 好吧,这是4000万瑞典克朗,谈论不多,但本季度的产能利用率略低于去年。

If we instead compare Q2 to Q1, well, the change is roughly the same, it's a bit more than SEK300 million in the negative direction, but the components are actually rather different. Here we have somewhat lower price in Q2. Special Steel actually had stable prices even slightly increasing given the better mix but for Americas and for Europe, we saw lower prices in Q2.
Volumes is basically no impact, Ruukki Construction seasonally higher, Special Steel Europe, basically flat, and then somewhat lower volumes in Americas. And variable COGS, positive impact of SEK75 million, that at least when I saw it first, was a bit surprising given, again, the increase in iron ore. But we have, during Q2, saw quite a lot of decrease on the scrap side and also some other raw material in consumables like alloys had moved for us in the right direction. So overall, we have a positive impact on the variable COGS.
Fixed cost is higher in Q2 than in Q1 also because we had higher repair and maintenance cost. We had a few specific items like there was a thunder struck in Luleå that impacted production, where we had to increase some of the maintenance work. And we have also now started to take in summer workers that also impact fixed cost. However, as we have said before, we have not increased the total amount of fixed employees compared to when we finished the redundancy program in the end of 2016.
But we have adjusted with more temporary and more summer workers in order to be able to produce according to demand. And that is obviously, for us something that we will address going forward. No impact on FX. Other, we are be running with a bit high capacity utilization in Q2, that's the main explanation, especially since we were stranded with one of the blast furnaces in Raahe during Q1.
Moving on to cash flow instead. We had the solid operating cash flow now in Q2 of SEK1.7 billion. It was actually better in Q2 last year, where we had SEK1.3 billion and was better in Q1 with SEK1.1 billion. Those on the operating level. Then if we move down to net level, where we were paying for the acquisition of Sanistål, we were also giving dividend to the shareholders, so net cash flow was actually negative by SEK1.6 billion.
And if we then move to the balance sheet, well, the net -- negative net cash flow, obviously, have an impact on our net debt, which increased during the quarter, and now stands at SEK9.9 billion. We had an increase in net gearing of 3 percentage points, and moving from 16% up to 19%. However, it's still clearly below the target that we have with the net gearing that normally not should exceed 35%.
Duration of the loan portfolio is over 6 years and if you look at the graph here, you can see that for '20 to '23, we have very low upcoming maturities, it's below SEK2 billion every year. In 2021, it's almost SEK0. In '19, we have around SEK3 billion, that's mainly commercial papers, and as we generate cash flow, we will continue to reduce that as well.
But all in all, both on the absolute amount of debt but also on the maturity profile, we are very confident in the situation we have right now. Finally then for me on the raw material side and here we have had a rather dramatic development during the quarter. We have seen our pellet purchase price increase by 18%, in Swedish krona, in Q3 versus Q1, slightly less in dollars, 14%. And as we have said before, this higher cost will, to a large extent, impact Q3.

如果我们将Q2与Q1进行比较,那么,变化大致相同,它在负方向上略高于3亿瑞典克朗,但组件实际上是相当不同的。在这里,我们在第二季度的价格略低。考虑到更好的组合,特钢实际上价格稳定甚至略有上涨,但对于美洲和欧洲,我们看到第二季度价格较低。

成交量基本没有影响,Ruukki Construction季节性走高,特殊钢欧洲基本持平,然后美洲的成交量略有下降。而可变的COGS,至少在我第一次看到它时的7500万瑞典克朗的正面影响,再次出现了铁矿石的增加,这有点令人惊讶。但是,在第二季度,我们已经看到了废料方面的大量减少,而且合金等消耗品中的其他一些原材料也朝着正确的方向发展。总的来说,我们对变量COGS产生了积极影响。

第二季度的固定成本高于第一季度,因为我们的维修和维护成本较高。我们有一些具体的项目,例如Luleå的雷声袭击了生产,我们不得不增加一些维护工作。而且我们现在也开始接纳夏季工人,这也会影响固定成本。但是,正如我们之前所说,与2016年底完成裁员计划相比,我们没有增加固定员工的总数。

但我们已经调整了更多的临时和更多的夏季工人,以便能够根据需求生产。显然,对于我们来说,我们将会解决一些问题。对外汇没有影响。另外,我们在第二季度的产能利用率有点高,这是主要的解释,特别是因为我们在第一季度被搁置在Raahe的一个高炉。

转而转向现金流。我们目前在第二季度的运营现金流为17亿瑞典克朗。它实际上在去年第二季度更好,我们有13亿瑞典克朗,第一季度更好,为11亿瑞典克朗。那些在操作层面上。然后,如果我们下降到净水平,我们为收购Sanistål付款,我们也向股东分红,因此净现金流实际为负16亿瑞典克朗。

如果我们接着转向资产负债表,那么,净负净现金流显然会对我们的净债务产生影响,净债务在本季度增加,现在达到99亿瑞典克朗。我们的净负债率增加了3个百分点,从16%上升到19%。但是,它仍然明显低于我们对净负债的目标,通常不应超过35%。

贷款组合的持续时间超过6年,如果你看一下这里的图表,你可以看到,对于'20到'23,我们的即将到期的期限非常低,每年低于20亿瑞典克朗。在2021年,它几乎是SEK0。在19年,我们有大约30亿瑞典克朗,主要是商业票据,当我们产生现金流时,我们也将继续减少这一点。

但总的来说,无论是债务的绝对数额还是成熟度,我们对目前的情况都非常有信心。最后,在原材料方面对我来说,在这个季度我们有一个相当戏剧性的发展。我们看到我们的颗粒采购价格在第三季度以瑞典克朗的价格比第一季度增长了18%,略低于美元,即14%。正如我们之前所说,这种较高的成本将在很大程度上影响第三季度。

Martin already talked about Luleå, where we have seen the impact in Q2 since we don't have any basically no iron ore inventory, but for the other integrated sites, Raahe and Oxelosund, we will see more of this impact coming into the third quarter on the P&L side. Coking coal actually moved in the other directions, down by 9% percent in Q2 versus Q1.
And as scrap for our U.S. operation. Scrap prices actually continue to decrease in Q2. Our purchase prices was 10% lower in Q2 versus Q1. And this is rather unusual, because typically iron ore and scrap they have a rather good corelation, if iron ore goes up scrap usually follows, and the other way around when it goes down. But what we have seeing now with the extreme price on iron ore prices and at the same time scrap prices going in the other direction, it's rather unusual. It has obviously, benefited our Americas operations, where we are scrap based, but on the other hand, as we've seen in the result, it's hurting our integrated operations like SSAB Europe. Okay, back to you, Martin.

Martin已经谈到了Luleå,我们已经看到了第二季度的影响,因为我们基本上没有铁矿石库存,但对于其他综合工厂,Raahe和Oxelosund,我们将看到更多这种影响进入第三季度在损益方面。焦煤实际上向其他方向移动,第二季度比第一季度下降了9%。

作为我们美国业务的废料。第二季度废钢价格实际上继续下降。我们的采购价格在第二季度比第一季度下降了10%。这是相当不寻常的,因为通常铁矿石和废钢具有相当好的核心化,如果铁矿石上涨,废钢通常会随之而来,反之则相反。但是我们现在看到的是铁矿石价格的极端价格,同时废钢价格向另一个方向发展,这是相当不寻常的。显而易见,这使我们的美洲业务受益,我们以废钢为基础,但另一方面,正如我们在结果中看到的那样,它正在损害我们的综合业务,如SSAB Europe。好的,回到你身边,马丁。

Martin Lindqvist

So we then start to look at the segments. The picture is a bit more colorful than what we showed in -- of the Q1, and automotive is clearly weak. If we look at Heavy Transport, Construction Machinery and construction, it is healthy, not as strong as it was, I mean not growing as it was, but on decent levels. Energy and Material handling still on very good levels when we look at Service Centers, as said in the beginning, that we saw a cautious behavior in North America and also in Europe during Q2, my guess would be that we -- during the second half of Q3 looking at official statistics and mouth on hand with Steel Service Centers restocking or start to buy. So that is what we are saying, but I would say, on underlying also on healthy levels.
When we look at the outlook, we expect to see continued decent demand or relatively good demand for heavy plate in North America. In Europe underlying demand to be somewhat weaker. And then we have the usual seasonal slowdown in Europe. Good demand for high-strength steel, even though we also there see a seasonal slowdown but we expect to see continued good demand.
Prices, lower prices in Europe and Americas, and somewhat lower in SSAB Special Steels. And as a Håkan alluded to, higher raw material cost will also continue to affect us in Q3. So if we sum it up, what I think was good in this quarter was Americas, very strong earnings, good result improvement. Europe, we lost margins, we were down at 5% EBITDA margin to a large extent due to higher iron ore costs. We are now -- we have built the systems since the acquisitions of Ruukki with much more flexibility.
We will, during the third quarter, close the small blast furnace in Oxelosund when we have finalized the midterm repair of the -- one the blast furnaces in Raahe. We have today roughly 1,000 employees with variable contracts, or temporary employees that we can reduce if the market turns worse. And we have plans already in place for a somewhat more hesitant or weaker market and we will execute them and we have already started to execute them. And we can do -- we can do that in line with where the market develops.
We will continue to generate good cash flows. We have already today a stronger balance sheet than we have had before. And, as said, during the second half, we typically generate more free cash flow than during the first half, and we will continue to generate positive cash flow and strengthen the balance sheet. And that will give us freedom to operate regardless of business cycle.
And as said in the beginning, we will have -- continue to optimize our asset portfolio and yesterday signed a contract to sell Building Systems within Ruukki Construction. So we have the portfolio today that we feel fits SSAB and the acquisitions we have done has been to become stronger and have a better grip on the channels towards the end users.
So with that, Per, should we open up for questions?

所以我们开始看看这些细分市场。图片比我们在第一季度所展示的要多得多,汽车显然很弱。如果我们看一下重型运输,工程机械和建筑,它是健康的,不像它那样强大,我的意思是不会像现在这样增长,而是在体面的水平上。当我们看到服务中心时,能源和物料处理仍处于非常好的水平,正如开头所说,我们在第二季度看到了北美和欧洲的谨慎行为,我的猜测是我们 - 下半年第三季度正在查看官方统计数据和钢铁服务中心补货或开始购买。所以这就是我们所说的,但我会说,在潜在的基础上也是健康的水平。

当我们观察前景时,我们预计北美需求将继续保持良好需求或对厚板需求相对较好。在欧洲,潜在需求有所减弱。然后我们在欧洲经常出现季节性放缓。对高强度钢的需求良好,尽管我们也看到季节性放缓,但我们预计会看到持续的良好需求。

价格,欧洲和美洲的价格较低,而SSAB特种钢的价格则略低。正如Håkan所暗示的那样,更高的原材料成本也将在第三季度继续影响我们。因此,如果我们总结一下,我认为本季度的好处是美洲,非常强劲的收益,良好的结果改善。欧洲,我们失去了利润率,由于铁矿石成本上升,我们在很大程度上降低了5%的EBITDA利润率。我们现在 - 自收购Ruukki以来,我们已经建立了系统,具有更大的灵活性。

我们将在第三季度关闭Oxelosund的小型高炉,当我们完成对Raahe高炉的中期修复。我们今天约有1,000名员工拥有可变合同,或临时员工,如果市场恶化,我们可以减少。而且我们已经制定了一个更加犹豫或更弱的市场的计划,我们将执行它们,我们已经开始执行它们。我们可以这样做 - 我们可以根据市场的发展情况来做到这一点。

我们将继续产生良好的现金流。我们今天已经拥有了比以往更强大的资产负债表。而且,如上所述,在下半年,我们通常会产生比上半年更多的自由现金流,我们将继续产生正现金流并加强资产负债表。这将使我们无论经营周期如何都能自由运营。

正如开头所说,我们将继续优化我们的资产组合,昨天签署了在Ruukki Construction内销售建筑系统的合同。因此,我们今天拥有的产品组合使我们感觉适合SSAB,我们所做的收购已经变得更强大,并且更好地抓住了最终用户的渠道。

那么,Per,我们应该开放提问吗?

PerHillström

Yes. And we will start by asking the operator, please, to present the instructions on how to ask a question. So please, operator?

是。 我们首先请操作员提出如何提问的说明。 那么,请运营商?

问答环节

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Alain Gabriel from Morgan Stanley.

[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Alain Gabriel。

Alain Gabriel

A couple of questions from my end. Firstly on the profit bridges between Q2 and Q3. Luckily for Europe and Americas, we can observe the prices on the screens, but for the Specialty Steel business you have highlighted that there's somewhat weaker quarter into Q3. How can we or can you help us quantify the delta versus Q2? Is -- are the first 9 month of 2018 an example of -- or a good benchmark to look at the quarterly run rate? And that's the first question. Secondly, on the cash needs of the business and the CapEx...

我最后提出几个问题。 首先是Q2和Q3之间的利润桥梁。 幸运的是,对于欧洲和美洲,我们可以在屏幕上观察价格,但对于特种钢业务,您已经突出显示第三季度的季度稍微弱一些。 我们怎样才能帮助我们量化delta与Q2的差异? 是 - 是2018年的前9个月的一个例子 - 或者是看季度运行率的一个好基准? 这是第一个问题。 其次,关于业务和资本支出的现金需求......

Martin Lindqvist

We will take them one by one. No, but we expect to see -- we typically see a seasonal slowdown in the third quarter. We see -- in some of the segments continued very strong demand, and some of the segment maybe some hesitation, but no dramatics in Special Steel, as I see it. So I would say, rather plus or minus something similar like a seasonal slowdown.

我们将逐一介绍它们。 不,但我们希望看到 - 我们通常会看到第三季度的季节性放缓。 我们看到 - 在一些细分市场中继续需求非常强劲,有些细分市场可能有些犹豫,但我认为特钢没有戏剧性。 所以我会说,而不是像季节性减速一样加上或减去类似的东西。

Alain Gabriel

Okay. And my second question is on the CapEx and the flexibility and the willingness to reduce CapEx in the current environment.

好的。 我的第二个问题是关于资本支出以及在当前环境中减少资本支出的灵活性和意愿。

Martin Lindqvist

No, but we have flexibility there. And we have shown that over the years. And as said, priority #1 is to continue to strengthen the balance sheet. On the other hand, I mean, we also have a strong focus on production stability, but we have flexibility when it comes to CapEx, yes.

不,但我们在那里有灵活性。 多年来我们已经证明了这一点。 如上所述,优先级#1是继续加强资产负债表。 另一方面,我的意思是,我们也非常注重生产稳定性,但是我们在资本支出方面具有灵活性,是的。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Ioannis Masvoulas from Macquarie.

我们的下一个问题来自麦格理的Ioannis Masvoulas。

Ioannis Masvoulas

Three questions from my side. The first for Håkan. I was also surprised with sequential development in variable costs. Could you quantify the cost coming from iron ore specifically in Q2?

我方面有三个问题。 Håkan的第一个。 我对可变成本的顺序开发感到惊讶。 你能否量化二季度特别是铁矿石的成本?

HåkanFolin

I don't have the figure on top of my head, but it was significant negative, but we can get back to -- you have the impact of what we bought in Q2 versus Q1, and also in Q1 versus Q4 from the last presentation. But we can get back with a more detailed on that, but I don't tell you from top of my head.

我没有这个数字,但它是显着的负面,但我们可以回到 - 你有我们在第二季度与第一季度相比,以及第一季度与第四季度相比的影响。 但是我们可以更详细地回过头来看,但我不会从头脑中告诉你。

Ioannis Masvoulas

And second question again on cost. So if we look at the, your coking coal purchase price was down about 9% sequentially, but if I look at spot prices, the quarterly average is relatively stable Q2 versus Q1. So what explains that sort of discrepancy?

关于成本的第二个问题。 因此,如果我们看一下,您的炼焦煤采购价格依次下降约9%,但如果我看现货价格,季度平均值相对于第二季度相对稳定。 那么是什么解释了这种差异呢?

HåkanFolin

Well actually, one should remember, we don't buy very much in Q1 given that up in the north of Sweden and Finland, we don't get the boats to come up during Q4 and Q1 basically. So our buying in Q1 is very limited. So there might be some discrepancies because of that.

实际上,人们应该记住,我们不会在第一季度买得太多,因为在瑞典北部和芬兰,我们在第四季度和第四季度基本没有出现这些船只。 因此我们在第一季度的购买非常有限。 因此可能存在一些差异。

Martin Lindqvist

So we only consume from stock and buy very limited volumes, mainly to Oxelosund.

所以我们只从库存消费并购买非常有限的数量,主要是Oxelosund。

Ioannis Masvoulas

I see. Okay, perfect, and maybe another question again on costs. You mentioned your flexibility around the labor force, and I believe you released SEK300 million for seasonal cost reduction at least in Q3. Given the flexibility around contractors, should we expect the cost reduction to be more pronounced this year in Q3?

我知道了。 好的,完美的,也许是另一个关于成本的问题。 你提到了你对劳动力的灵活性,我相信你至少在第三季度就季节性成本减少了3亿瑞典克朗。 考虑到承包商的灵活性,我们是否应该预计今年第三季度的成本降低会更加明显?

Martin Lindqvist

It shouldn't be less at least.

它至少不应该少。

Ioannis Masvoulas

Could it be meaningfully higher though?

虽然它有意义吗?

Martin Lindqvist

Depends where the market goes, but as said, I mean, what we have -- we have set up the Company and you know this industry, we typically build a blast furnace and then we run it 24/7 for 15 years. So flexibility is not very easy. But in the European system, we have set it up to be as flexible as possible when it comes to manning, redundancy in production, specializing and license, so on.
And then Americas is a completely different business where we have electric are furnaces and, I mean, really if you exaggerate a bit, we don't have any fixed cost, we only have variable costs. I mean salaries are variable and so on. So we can adopt for being a steel company, we have set the Company in a position where we can adapt to different market environments in a very rigid business setup.

取决于市场走向,但正如所说,我的意思是,我们已经建立了公司,你知道这个行业,我们通常建造一个高炉,然后我们全天候运行15年。 所以灵活性并不容易。 但是在欧洲系统中,我们已经将其设置为在配员,生产冗余,专业化和许可等方面尽可能灵活。

然后美洲是一个完全不同的业务,我们有电炉,我的意思是,如果你夸大一点,我们没有任何固定成本,我们只有可变成本。 我的意思是薪水是可变的等等。 因此,我们可以采用钢铁公司的方式,使公司处于一个能够在非常严格的业务环境中适应不同市场环境的位置。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Krishan Agarwal from Citigroup.

我们的下一个问题来自花旗集团的Krishan Agarwal。

Krishan Agarwal

My question is on Americas, where price to cost spread seems to have been stable, slightly negative than what we have seen in the Europe. Can you help us to understand as in how much of the decline in the scrap is already reflected into Americas in the Q2? And how much of the decline we should expect in Q3 to come through?

我的问题是美洲,价格与成本的差异似乎是稳定的,略微低于我们在欧洲所看到的。 您能否帮助我们了解第二季度废钢的减少量已经反映在美洲? 我们在第三季度应该会有多少下降?

Martin Lindqvist

In Americas we buy scrap every month so you see a fairly quick, what you call it, you see fairly quick effect of it in the P&L. We need to remember also that we are coming from very high margins. So -- but I would see -- you have seen the majority of it in the P&L given the short lead time.

在美洲,我们每个月都会购买废料,所以你会看到一个相当快的,你所说的,你会看到它在损益表中的相当快的效果。 我们还需要记住,我们来自非常高的利润率。 所以 - 但我会看到 - 鉴于交付时间较短,您已经在损益表中看到了大部分内容。

Krishan Agarwal

Okay. And then is it fair to assume that the 25% of the business in Special Steel is also scrap based being in America so that will also benefit to that extent?

好的。 那么,假设特钢的25%的业务在美国也是基于废料的,这样做也会受益吗?

Martin Lindqvist

In U.S., it is scrap based and in Oxelosund and the Nordic mill, it is blast furnace based or iron ore based. We can of course -- that is also part of the flexibility, we can play a bit, if you excuse my language, with that system as well. I mean if scrap is -- and we can also, to be honest, play a bit in the Nordic system with the scrap content in the converters, where we typically could be between 17% and up to 24% of scrap in the converters.
So we have some flexibility that we can utilize. But we can also, with the system we have built up, with the quality of redundant production system, and we can produce more scrap based if iron ore is very high and scribe based, in comparison, lower. So that also gives us some flexibility, yes, which we did not have before.

在美国,它是基于废料的,在Oxelosund和Nordic工厂中,它是基于高炉或基于铁矿石的。 我们当然可以 - 这也是灵活性的一部分,如果您原谅我的语言,我们也可以使用该系统。 我的意思是,如果废料是 - 而且我们也可以,诚实地说,在北欧系统中使用转换器中的废料含量,我们通常可以在转换器中废料的17%到24%之间。

因此,我们可以利用一些灵活性。 但是,我们已经建立起来的系统,我们也可以提供冗余生产系统的质量,如果铁矿石非常高,我们可以生产更多的废料,相比之下,抄写更低。 所以这也给了我们一些灵活性,是的,这是我们以前没有的。

Krishan Agarwal

Okay, I understand. And then one for Håkan. I mean, the tax, the cash taxes was higher in the second quarter. Is there anything more coming in the third quarter higher than normal?

好的我明白。 然后一个为Håkan。 我的意思是,税收,现金税在第二季度更高。 是否有更多的东西在第三季度高于正常水平?

HåkanFolin

No. Second quarter was exact, as you say, it was higher than normal but that should be a one-time thing. So it should not be the same in Q3, no.

第二季度是准确的,正如你所说,它高于正常,但这应该是一次性的事情。 所以它在Q3中应该不一样,不。

Krishan Agarwal

Okay. And then a follow-up. I mean you sort of seems to have increased the maintenance cost estimate from SEK200 million to SEK280 million for the third quarter. Is there any change in the expectation in terms of the plant maintenance?

好的。 然后是后续行动。 我的意思是你似乎已经将第三季度的维护成本估算从2亿瑞典克朗增加到2.8亿瑞典克朗。 工厂维护方面的期望是否有任何变化?

HåkanFolin

No. We have the plant maintenance in the report. And if you would compare what we have now compared to the previous quarter, it's a very small change, but overall, no, there is no change.

不,我们在报告中有工厂维护。 如果你比较我们现在与上一季度的比较,这是一个非常小的变化,但总的来说,不,没有变化。

Krishan Agarwal

Okay. And then finally, can you help us update as in what is the position on CO2 certificate, and was there an incremental cost in the second quarter? What should we expect in the second half?

好的。 最后,您能否帮助我们更新二氧化碳证书的立场,第二季度会有增量成本吗? 下半场我们应该期待什么?

HåkanFolin

Sorry, can you repeat that?

对不起,你能再说一遍吗?

Krishan Agarwal

Can you help us to understand your position in terms of CO2 certificate? And is there any incremental cost coming in, in the second half of 2019 from CO2?

您能否帮助我们了解您在二氧化碳证书方面的立场? 在2019年下半年,二氧化碳是否会产生任何增量成本?

HåkanFolin

No. No incremental cost in the second half of 2019.

不可以。在2019年下半年没有增量成本。

Krishan Agarwal

And you are sort of covered?

你有点被覆盖?

HåkanFolin

Yes.

是。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Gustaf Schwerin from Pareto Securities.

我们的下一个问题来自Pareto Securities的Gustaf Schwerin。

Gustaf Schwerin

I have 3 questions, I'll will take them one by one. Firstly, if you can elaborate a little bit on your view on the European Steel market, now what's holding back there? The process given the current input costs, is this simply just good availability after the decrease in automotive demand or is sort of overall underlying demand so weak that we basically won't see an uplift in pricing? Any comments on that would be very helpful.

我有3个问题,我将逐一介绍它们。 首先,如果你能详细说明一下你对欧洲钢铁市场的看法,现在又有什么阻碍? 考虑到当前投入成本的过程,这只是在汽车需求减少之后的良好可用性,或者是整体潜在需求如此之弱,以至于我们基本上不会看到定价的上升? 对此的任何评论都会非常有帮助。

Martin Lindqvist

I think the main driver is the decrease in automotive and that gives, call it, big steel producers more dependent on automotive than us. I mean looking for volumes in other segments, and that gives, of course, more available material on the European market. What is a bit strange though is, or what is not according to normal historical pattern is that there is a strong correlation between steel prices, spot prices, and iron ore prices.
And the spot prices have been flat to slightly down when -- at the same time as raw material prices or iron ore prices have peaked and that is a bit unusual. I'm expecting that correlation to come back over time, but if that happens during Q3 or not I don't know, but my guess would be that there are other steel companies than us also feeling the margin squeeze on the European market. And if anything, as always, the Nordic market is a bit less volatile than Southern Europe. But that of course remains to be seen. But that would be my guess.

我认为主要的驱动因素是汽车的减少,并称之为大型钢铁生产商比我们更依赖汽车。 我的意思是寻找其他领域的产量,当然,这也为欧洲市场提供了更多可用的材料。 虽然有点奇怪,或者根据正常的历史模式,有些奇怪的是,钢铁价格,现货价格和铁矿石价格之间存在很强的相关性。

当原材料价格或铁矿石价格达到顶峰时,现货价格一直持平至略有下降,这有点不寻常。 我期待这种相关性随着时间的推移而回归,但是如果这种情况发生在第三季度或者不是我不知道,但我的猜测是,除了我们之外还有其他钢铁公司也感觉到欧洲市场的利润率下降。 如果有的话,一如既往,北欧市场的波动性要小于南欧市场。 但这当然还有待观察。 但那是我的猜测。

Gustaf Schwerin

Okay. Then secondly, do you want to disclose the price tag for the divested Building Systems? And also the remainder of the construction business now seen as core given the steel offtake you have.

好的。 其次,您是否想要披露剥离的建筑系统的价格标签? 考虑到您的钢铁需求,现在建筑业的其余部分也被视为核心。

Martin Lindqvist

That's a channel to the market in that aspect, it is core. Do we always need to own 100% of it? No, but we need to have influence and control. So I would say that what we have left now in Ruukki Construction is core because they are the biggest customer to our color coating lines in Hämeenlinna [indiscernible]. We will come back to more details about systems, but as said, they consumed very little of our steel. So they were mainly a contractor and we are not in that business, we are a steel company. So in that aspect, it was to -- you could -- to put it bluntly, clean up the portfolio.

在这方面,这是进入市场的渠道,它是核心。 我们总是需要拥有它的100%吗? 不,但我们需要有影响力和控制力。 所以我想说我们现在在Ruukki Construction留下的是核心,因为他们是我们在Hämeenlinna的彩色涂层生产线的最大客户[音频不清晰]。 我们将回到有关系统的更多细节,但正如所说,他们消耗的钢材很少。 所以他们主要是承包商而我们不在那个行业,我们是一家钢铁公司。 所以在这方面,你可以 - 直言不讳地清理投资组合。

Gustaf Schwerin

Okay. Fair enough. And then lastly, I know you normally don't give this but can you give any feeling for the iron ore impact in Special Steels quarter-on-quarter?

好的。 很公平。 最后,我知道你通常不会这样做,但你能否对特殊钢铁季度的铁矿石影响有任何感觉?

HåkanFolin

Well, it's a bit mix for Special Steel given the question we had before that partly be produce in Mobile, which is scrap based and then partly we produced in Oxelösund, which is iron ore based. But if you net those 2 out specifically for Special Steel, it's still a negative development raw material wise for Special Steel.

嗯,特别钢有点混合,因为我们以前的问题部分是在Mobile中生产,这是基于废料,然后部分我们在Oxelösund生产,这是以铁矿石为基础的。 但是,如果你专门为特钢提供这些产品,那么对于特钢来说,它仍然是一种负面的开发原料。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Oskar Lindstrom from Danske Bank.

我们的下一个问题来自Danske Bank的Oskar Lindstrom。

Oskar Lindstrom

Three questions for me. I'll take them one at a time. First off is iron ore. How much of the higher iron ore prices out there are now in your numbers in Q2?

对我来说有三个问题。 我会一次带一个。 首先是铁矿石。 现在第二季你的铁矿石价格有多高?

Martin Lindqvist

So what Håkan said, I mean, in Luleå, to a large extent, in Raahe and Oxelösund less, so where we have iron ore stocks, and there is a lead time. In Luleå, we don't have any iron ore stock, we get the trains from LKAB more or less every day. So we will see more effects of that in Q3. We have not been specific exactly what we have seen, but in Luleå, to a very large extent and less so in Raahe and Oxelösund.

所以Håkan所说的,我的意思是,在Luleå,在很大程度上,在Raahe和Oxelösund较少,所以我们有铁矿石库存,并且有一个提前期。 在吕勒奥,我们没有任何铁矿石库存,我们每天或多或少地从LKAB获得火车。 所以我们将在第三季度看到更多的影响。 我们并没有具体说明我们所看到的情况,但在Luleå,在Raahe和Oxelösund中很大程度上并不那么具体。

HåkanFolin

And why should -- now we talk about our average prices during -- purchase prices during Q2 versus Q1, and actually both during Q1 and during Q2, you saw an increase in the absolute number during both of the quarters. And that will obviously not only talk average but that will also have an impact of course.

为什么要 - 现在我们谈谈我们在第二季度和第一季度的购买价格期间的平均价格,实际上在第一季度和第二季度期间,您看到两个季度的绝对数量都有所增加。 这显然不仅仅是谈论平均水平,而且当然也会产生影响。

Oskar Lindstrom

Yes, because that's what I was looking for, percentage, sort of you're saying our market price for the steel that we -- or the iron ore that we purchase is up X, our average cost in Q2 was up Y, the difference there is what's left. But you don't want to do a -- communicate a number.
Okay. I move on to the second question. On pricing, to what extent has the weaker demand in automotive sort of now fully spread to other segments, which can impact? Or is there a potential for the weak automotive demand to spread to even further?

是的,因为这就是我所寻找的,百分比,你说我们的钢材市场价格 - 或者我们购买的铁矿石价格上涨X,我们在Q2的平均成本是Y,差价 还剩下什么。 但是你不想做一个 - 传达号码。

好的。 我接着回答第二个问题。 在定价方面,汽车类需求的弱势程度在多大程度上已经完全蔓延到其他细分市场? 或者是否有可能导致疲软的汽车需求进一步扩散?

Martin Lindqvist

That's of course every dependent on how the automotive will continue to develop during the rest of the year, but automotive is one of the big consuming segments globally for steel. So of course it has had an impact on other segments as well and overall prices, definitely. That's what we see. That I guess, that is part of the explanation why we see -- or a big part of the explanation why we see stable prices when everyone is suffering from heavily increased raw material costs.

当然,这一切都取决于汽车在今年剩余时间内将如何继续发展,但汽车是全球钢铁消费的重要部分之一。 当然,它肯定会对其他细分市场和整体价格产生影响。 这就是我们所看到的。 我想,这就是为什么我们看到的解释的一部分 - 或者解释为什么当每个人都遭受大量增加的原材料成本时我们看到稳定的价格时的大部分解释。

Oskar Lindstrom

And looking at Special Steels, your guidance for somewhat lower prices. Is that as a consequence of overall lowers benchmark steel prices? Or is it only a seasonal thing? Because I think you mentioned something about a season as well.

看看特种钢,您的指导价格会有所降低。 这是因为整体降低了基准钢价吗? 或者它只是一个季节性的东西? 因为我觉得你也提到了关于一个赛季的事情。

Martin Lindqvist

What we see is typically a seasonally lower demand during the beginning of Q3. So these are our contract prices grade per grade slightly down on average. On the other hand we have also mixed improvement and so on so. But that is, I mean, is more on the margin, I would say.

在第三季度开始时,我们看到的通常是季节性较低的需求。 所以这些是我们的合同价格等级平均每个等级略有下降。 另一方面,我们也有混合改进等等。 但是,我的意思是,这意味着更多的是利润。

HåkanFolin

Steel, it is -- like Martin said, it is grade by grade. There is a difference between the very high-end product in Special Steel and the not very high-end product in Special Steel, and obviously, the higher up we come the less -- the general price trend will impact the special steel price.

钢铁,就像 - 马丁说的那样,它是等级的。 特钢的非常高端产品与特钢的非常高端产品之间存在差异,显然,我们越高越好 - 总体价格趋势将影响特钢价格。

Martin Lindqvist

So it's mainly 700 megapascal and those, call it, lower grades that we sell in Special Steels. But if you take the advanced Hardox and Armox and Strenx steels, you don't see that effect.

因此它主要是700兆帕斯卡,而那些称之为特殊钢销售的低档。 但如果你使用先进的Hardox和Armox和Strenx钢,你就不会看到这种效果。

Oskar Lindstrom

Okay. And is there, you mentioned, a mixed effect, but should we expect a negative mixed effect also then?

好的。 你提到过,是否存在混合效应,但我们是否应该期待负面的混合效应呢?

Martin Lindqvist

What you should, over time, expect that we will continue to shift the mix as we have done previous year. That is what we are aiming for. So then how it's -- I mean, difference between quarters is always, I mean a quarter is not a very long time, but over time you should expect us to continue to improve the mix not only in Special Steels, but also in, as I said, Europe. But if you compare today Europe as an example with a couple of years ago, we have had a much higher portion of what is called black coal, it's the most volatile product there is. And we have today, much more cut-to-length, slithered, galvanized color-coated and so on. So we try to move up product mix wise as well not only in Special Steels but also in Europe. And there is a huge difference in pricing and volatility between a Hardox 600 and a Strenx 700 as 2 extreme examples.

随着时间的推移,您应该像我们前一年那样继续改变这种组合。 这就是我们的目标。 那么它是怎么回事 - 我的意思是,季度之间的差异总是,我的意思是四分之一不是很长的时间,但随着时间的推移,你应该期望我们不仅在特殊钢中继续改进混合,而且在 我说,欧洲。 但是,如果你将今天的欧洲作为几年前的例子进行比较,那么我们所谓的黑煤的比例要高得多,它是最不稳定的产品。 我们今天拥有更多的定长切割,镀锌,镀锌等彩色涂层等。 因此,我们不仅在特种钢中而且在欧洲也试图提升产品组合。 而且,作为两个极端的例子,Hardox 600和Strenx 700之间的定价和波动性存在巨大差异。

Oskar Lindstrom

My final question is on Americas pricing, and any update you could give on the market there? And what the announced price increase is? Have they had any impact?

我的最后一个问题是关于美洲的定价,以及您可以在那里进行的任何更新吗? 宣布的价格涨幅是多少? 他们有什么影响吗?

Martin Lindqvist

I think it's a bit too early to tell, some impact, as I see it, but it's too early to tell.

我认为现在说起来有点太早了,有些影响,正如我所看到的那样,但现在说还为时过早。

HåkanFolin

But to be clear, the price -- announced price increases have been on strip material, not on plate material so far.

但需要明确的是,价格 - 宣布的价格上涨一直是带状材料,而不是迄今为止的板材。

Oskar Lindstrom

Yes. But you're not seeing any movement in your end markets yet? Is that how I should see it?

是。 但你还没有看到你的终端市场有任何变动吗? 这是我应该怎么看?

Martin Lindqvist

We guide for lower prices in -- and we also have a lag because we have a mix in U.S. our contract prices, spot prices, and what we call it, project orders. So what we are guiding for is lower prices in Q3. And then what will happen with the spot prices during Q3, I think it's too early to tell.

我们引导降价 - 而且我们也有滞后因为我们在美国混合了我们的合同价格,现货价格以及我们所说的项目订单。 所以我们指导的是第三季度的价格下降。 然后在第三季度的现货价格会发生什么,我认为现在说还为时过早。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Bastian Synagowitz from Deutsche Bank.

我们的下一个问题来自德意志银行的Bastian Synagowitz。

Bastian Synagowitz

I've got 3 questions left. My first one is on Europe. So from what you're seeing on the second quarter numbers, you've been mostly impacted by higher cost and not so much prices so far. And prices will also be coming down and you're telling us costs will go up. And then at the same time you'll obviously have the maintenance break. Now with all of these components, and also the cost measures you've got in place, will you be confident to say that you won't slip towards EBITDA losses in Europe in the third and the fourth quarter? Or are we indeed running the risk to drop into a loss-making territory? That is my first question.

我还有3个问题。 我的第一个是欧洲。 因此,根据您在第二季度的数据所看到的,到目前为止,您已经受到成本上升和价格上涨的影响。 价格也将下降,你告诉我们成本会上涨。 然后在同一时间你显然会有维护休息时间。 现在有了所有这些组件,以及您已经采取的成本措施,您是否有信心说您不会在第三和第四季度陷入欧洲的EBITDA损失? 或者我们确实冒着陷入亏损领域的风险? 这是我的第一个问题。

Martin Lindqvist

No. But the guidance we gave is slightly lower prices or lower prices in Q3 and higher raw material cost. And then it depends I mean -- so that's the guidance we gave. And then maintenance outage and then you have to do the math.

不是。但我们给出的指导是第三季度价格略低或价格较低,原材料成本较高。 然后这取决于我的意思 - 这就是我们给出的指导。 然后维护停机然后你必须做数学。

Bastian Synagowitz

Okay. Fair enough. Then my second question is on the cost initiatives, which you've highlighted, and also wondering whether you could give us any number to quantify the cost cuts you're talking about with regards to the next 2 quarters. Then also on your plans to switching off small blast furnaces in Oxelösund when Raahe comes back, this is pretty much marked in stone or would you potentially consider to keep the larger blast furnace in Raahe off for longer, and hence the smaller blast furnace running instead to take out even more volumes?

好的。 很公平。 然后我的第二个问题是你已经强调的成本计划,并且还想知道你是否可以给我们任何数字来量化你在接下来的两个季度所谈论的成本削减。 还有你计划在Raahe回来时关闭Oxelösund的小型高炉,这在石头上是非常明显的,或者你可能会考虑将更大的高炉保持在Raahe更长的时间,因此更小的高炉运行 拿出更多的卷?

Martin Lindqvist

No. Not as it looks now. But as said, we have the flexibilities to, I wouldn't say independent of market scenario, but we can handle much worse market scenario if that would present itself. So what I'm trying to say is that we have a flexibility built into the system, and that gives us the opportunity to react fairly quickly without any substantial cost of reducing manning or anything else.
And then of course, I mean, this is a cyclical industry, this is what we know and what we are used to and we are, if anything, more well prepared at this time for any events than we have been before. So in that aspect, I'm very confident. And we have -- I mean Oxelösund, that is roughly 120 people, but as said, in total we have more than 1,000 people on flexible contracts. So I think we can, everything else equal, react accordingly to whatever market situation that presents itself.

不,不是现在的样子。 但正如所说,我们有灵活性,我不会说独立于市场情况,但如果出现这种情况,我们可以处理更糟糕的市场情况。 所以我想说的是,我们在系统中内置了一种灵活性,这使我们有机会快速做出反应,而无需减少人员配备或其他任何成本。

当然,我的意思是,这是一个周期性的行业,这是我们所知道的和我们习以为常的事情,如果有的话,我们现在为任何事件做好了比以往更好的准备。 所以在这方面,我非常有信心。 而且我们 - 我的意思是Oxelösund,大约有120人,但正如所说的那样,我们总共拥有超过1000人的灵活合同。 因此,我认为我们可以,在其他条件相同的情况下,相应地应对出现的任何市场情况。

Bastian Synagowitz

Okay. And like if you would just add up all of the cost initiatives, so temp workers and everything else has got a place, so how much would that be per quarter in the next 2 quarters?

好的。 如果您只是将所有成本计划加起来,那么临时工和其他所有工作都会占有一席之地,那么在接下来的两个季度每季度会有多少呢?

Martin Lindqvist

We haven't given that. But we have plans for, call it, fairly decent actions.

我们没有给出这一点。 但我们有计划,称之为相当不错的行动。

Bastian Synagowitz

Okay. So I don't know, like, is it like SEK500 million to SEK700 million for the temp workers, so just working with like a rough industrial salary, is that like a fair assumption?

好的。 所以我不知道,对于临时工来说,是不是5亿瑞典克朗到7亿瑞典克朗,所以只是像粗略的工业薪水那样工作,这是一个公平的假设吗?

Martin Lindqvist

We haven't given any guidance for that. What we have said, once again, is that we have flexibility to react to different market scenarios both up and down, and I'm confident that -- and that together with a much stronger balance sheet than we previously had. I'm confident that in relative terms we'll come out of this quite okay, whatever it is that is coming. But I'm not -- I need -- I'm not seeing a collapse.
So -- and we see a seasonal slowdown in Q3, more hesitation on the market, yes, extremely high raw material prices. But my guess would be that the correlation between raw material prices and spot prices for steel will come back because it has always been there. The correlation between scrap and iron ore will also come back, so yes. What I -- the only thing I'm saying is that in a cyclical industry and a cyclical markets, we are better prepared than ever.

我们没有给出任何指导。 我们再一次说过,我们可以灵活地对不同的市场情况做出上下反应,而且我有信心 - 而且这一点与我们以前的资产负债表相比更加强大。 我相信,相对而言,我们将从这里走出来,无论它即将到来。 但我不是 - 我需要 - 我没有看到崩溃。

所以 - 我们看到第三季度季节性放缓,市场更加犹豫,是的,原材料价格极高。 但我的猜测是,原材料价格和钢材现货价格之间的相关性将会回归,因为它一直存在。 废钢和铁矿石之间的相关性也会回来,是的。 我 - 我唯一要说的是,在周期性行业和周期性市场中,我们比以往任何时候都做好了准备。

Bastian Synagowitz

Okay. Okay. No, that's my impression as well. But maybe let me just ask in a different way. To release the 1,000 temp workers, so what would be the utilization rate in the European operations you would need to drop to? Would this be like 85%, 80%, what is the sensitivity here?

好的。 好的。 不,这也是我的印象。 但也许让我以不同的方式提问。 要释放1000名临时工,那么您需要降低欧洲业务的利用率? 这会是85%,80%,这里的灵敏度是多少?

Martin Lindqvist

We haven't done that math. I mean as said, we can quickly adjust to different market scenarios and then to speculate how we look in a year from now or 6 months from now or 2 years from now. It is impossible. The visibility we have is the coming quarter. And we have taken the actions to cope with that.

我们还没有那么数学。 我的意思是说,我们可以快速适应不同的市场情况,然后推测我们从现在开始的一年或从现在开始的6个月或从现在开始的2年后的看法。 是不可能的。 我们的可见度是即将到来的季度。 我们已采取行动应对这一点。

Bastian Synagowitz

Okay. All right. Then just my last question is on scrap. We've been hearing that the stock level for scrap in years have come down quite a lot and that it would imply that there may be a rebound in scrap prices, which is quite likely now, obviously scrap markets are very opaque. But do you share that view? And -- or what are the trends which you are seeing in the scrap market at the moment?

好的。 行。 然后我的最后一个问题是废料。 我们一直听说多年来废钢库存水平下降了很多,这意味着废钢价格可能出现反弹,现在很可能,废钢市场显然非常不透明。 但你有同感吗? 而且 - 或者您目前在废钢市场看到的趋势是什么?

Martin Lindqvist

I Probably see the same things as you do, and read the same reports. What we have seen during Q2, and I guess, that is, I mean, part to a large extent to driving the iron ore prices is restocking in China. When it comes to scrap, I don't see anything special, I wouldn't say that. What I know, at least, that they are on high or low levels.

我可能会看到与你相同的事情,并阅读相同的报告。 我们在第二季度看到的,我想,也就是说,我的意思是,在很大程度上推动铁矿石价格的上涨是在中国重新进货。 谈到废料,我没有看到任何特别的东西,我不会这么说。 我至少知道他们处于高水平或低水平。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Cedar Ekblom from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

我们的下一个问题来自Bank of America Merrill Lynch的Cedar Ekblom。

Cedar Ekblom

And want 2 questions. Should we be expecting anything more than a normal seasonal decline in volumes in Europe in the third quarter? It's usually between 10% and 15%. I would assume that the top end of the range is something more reasonable in this current environment. But do we need to be thinking about a greater decline in shipment quarter-on-quarter?

并想要2个问题。 我们是否应该期待第三季度欧洲的正常季节性下降? 通常在10%到15%之间。 我认为在当前环境中,范围的最高端是更合理的。 但我们是否需要考虑季度出货量的下降?

HåkanFolin

I would say, I think your assumption is fair. There is more in the higher range than in the lower range if you take a historic perspective, but we wouldn't expect very much more dramatic fall in that now.

我想说,我认为你的假设是公平的。 如果从历史的角度来看,在更高的范围内有更多的范围,而在更低的范围内,但我们现在不会期望更大幅度的下降。

Cedar Ekblom

Okay. And then a follow-up question just on the mix in Europe. Your realized prices have proved they're a lot more resilient than the sort of list prices that we see from a commodity-grade product. How much of that is down to lags? And how much of that is actually down to the fact that your mix is improving, and if it is, if it is mix, are there more benefits that we can expect into the third quarter? Or do you think that you've realized your full mix potential at the moment?

好的。 然后是关于欧洲组合的后续问题。 您实现的价格证明它们比我们从商品级产品中看到的那种定价更具弹性。 这有多少是滞后的? 其中有多少实际上是因为你的组合正在改善,如果是混合,那么第三季度我们可以获得更多的好处吗? 或者你认为你现在已经意识到你的全部混合潜力?

Martin Lindqvist

It's a combination, of course. But you have to, I would say, call it mixed system. First of all, you have the product mix, where we have been working since a number of years with improving the product mix and we'll continue to do that. The example I gave moving away from back -- ore and into more advanced products. And then you also have the geographical mix, where we typically see the biggest volatility in Southern Europe and less so the further north you go. So you could say in that aspects it's both product mix and geographical mix. And then of course, we don't sell much at all on spot pricing. We typically sell on, call it, contracts. So there is also, of course, a lag. So it's a combination of those 3.

当然,这是一个组合。 但是,我要说,你必须把它称为混合系统。 首先,您拥有产品组合,我们多年来一直在努力改进产品组合,我们将继续这样做。 我放弃了背后的例子 - 更先进的产品。 然后你也有地理组合,我们通常看到南欧最大的波动,而你往往更远的北方。 所以你可以说在这方面它既是产品组合又是地理组合。 当然,我们在现货定价方面根本没有卖得太多。 我们通常会出售,称之为合约。 当然,也有一个滞后。 所以它是这3个的组合。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from the line of Christian Kopfer from Nordea.

我们的下一个问题来自Nordea的Christian Kopfer系列。

Christian Kopfer

Just a few follow ups from my side. Firstly on Special Steels, I think you, Martin, have previously mentioned that you've been looking at margin that you reached in Q1, also almost 14% on EBIT and that margin is, what do you think specialty should be more or less over time. And -- but now it was down to less than 11% in Q2 and it seems you're guiding for further margin deterioration in Q3. So the question is, do you still stick to the target, the margin target that you should be at around Q1 levels over time not in the short term, of course, but over time?

我身边只有几个跟进。 首先是特殊钢,我想你,马丁,之前已经提到你一直在考虑你在第一季度达到的保证金,息税率也接近14%,这个保证金是,您认为专业应该或多或少超过 时间。 并且 - 但现在它在第二季度下降到不到11%,似乎你在第三季度引导进一步的利润率恶化。 所以问题是,你是否仍然坚持目标,你应该在Q1水平附近的保证金目标,而不是在短期内,当然,但随着时间的推移?

Martin Lindqvist

Definitely.

当然。

Christian Kopfer

Okay. And the follow-up question on that is then how do you aim to reach that?

好的。 关于那个问题的后续问题那么你是如何实现这一目标的呢?

Martin Lindqvist

We'll continue to work with the product mix, increase volumes, realizing the plans we have set, but the product mix is an important part, and increased volume is another part. But over time, yes. And you should also expect the much less volatility on the Special Steel product, less so in the more advanced grades produced in Mobile and Oxelösund. And slightly more volatility than in call it more a standardized, if you use that word, part of Special Steels like Strenx 700 and those grades that are more strip related and with slightly more volatility.

我们将继续使用产品组合,增加产量,实现我们设定的计划,但产品组合是一个重要部分,增加量是另一个部分。 但随着时间的推移,是的。 此外,您还应该期望特种钢产品的波动性要小得多,而在Mobile和Oxelösund生产的更先进的等级则更低。 如果你使用那个词,比如Strenx 700这样的特殊钢的一部分以及那些与条带相关且波动性略高的等级,那么波动性稍微大于标准化。

Christian Kopfer

Okay. But did I understand you right that you expected mix in Special Steels to improve some in the next quarter?

好的。 但我是否理解你,你预计特殊钢的混合会在下个季度改善一些?

HåkanFolin

I think what Martin said before was that one quarter is a short time period, but over time, we should definitely continue to see mix improving in Special Steel, yes.

我认为马丁之前所说的是一季度是一个很短的时期,但随着时间的推移,我们肯定会继续看到特钢的混合改善,是的。

Christian Kopfer

I heard that, but you're -- you were talking about lower prices, somewhat lower prices especially in Q3, but on the other hand, mix is improving that is what I heard but maybe I...

我听说过,但你是 - 你说的是价格较低,价格略低,特别是在第三季度,但另一方面,混合正在改善,这是我听到但也许我...

Martin Lindqvist

What I said was that when we talk about prices, we talk about product per product. And, I mean, if you take 700 megapascal, we will see slightly lower prices. But we -- on top of that over time, you should see continued mix improvement as we have seen. I don't say any specific about the mix in Q3 because the one quarter is too short, but over time, you should expect us to continue to improve the mix in Special Steels.

我所说的是,当我们谈论价格时,我们谈论每个产品的产品。 而且,我的意思是,如果你拿700兆帕斯卡,我们会看到略低的价格。 但是我们 - 随着时间的推移,你应该看到我们已经看到的持续混合改进。 我没有说第三季度的任何具体情况,因为一季度太短,但随着时间的推移,你应该期望我们继续改进特种钢的混合。

Christian Kopfer

Yes. And on the divestment of the Building Systems. You say that the impact on EBIT is 0. Can you say something about the EBITDA impact?

是。 以及建筑系统的撤资。 你说对EBIT的影响是0.你能说一下EBITDA的影响吗?

Martin Lindqvist

Very limited.

非常有限。

Christian Kopfer

Okay. Perfect.

好的。 完善。

Martin Lindqvist

I would say embarrassing limited.

好的。 非常感谢你。...

Christian Kopfer

Right. And then finally on the maintenance cost, I mean, Håkan you said that your maintenance costs are increasing slightly. But to be fair, I mean shouldn't the maintenance cost impact be decreasing because of lower margins, I mean, the outage should be less.

对。 然后最后关于维护成本,我的意思是,Håkan你说你的维护成本略有增加。 但公平地说,我的意思是,由于利润率较低,维护成本影响不应该降低,我的意思是,停电应该更少。

Martin Lindqvist

Håkan was talking about the first half of this year and we have been spending more on maintenance with a very strong focus on production stability. We have flexibility when it comes to maintenance costs. And we have been spending on maintenance, and especially preventive maintenance during the already from Q4 last year and then during the first 6 months of this year. And we have a flexibility there to go up and down as we have with investments. And I think we have proven that over time as well.

Håkan谈到了今年上半年,我们一直在维护方面投入更多资金,非常注重生产稳定性。 我们在维护成本方面具有灵活性。 从去年第四季度到今年前六个月,我们一直在维护,特别是预防性维护。 我们在投资方面具有上下灵活性。 而且我认为我们已经证明了随着时间的推移。

Christian Kopfer

What is the reason that maintenance costs are expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter, for example?

例如,第四季度维护成本预计会略微增加的原因是什么?

Martin Lindqvist

That depends, of course, when we have the maintenance, the yearly maintenance stops. We have them typically in Q3 and Q4.

当然,这取决于我们进行维护时,每年的维护停止。 我们通常在Q3和Q4中使用它们。

Christian Kopfer

Yes sure, but versus your previous guidance, it seems that you have taken up -- it's not a big thing, I just wonder what is driving the increase?

是的,但是与你之前的指导相比,似乎你已经接受了 - 这不是一件大事,我只是想知道是什么推动了增长?

HåkanFolin

No, I don't think we have any increase in Q4.

不,我认为第四季度没有增加。

PerHillström

Compared to Q1. It's SEK40 million higher in total.

与Q1相比。 它总共高出4,000万瑞典克朗。

Martin Lindqvist

Yes, but that's because we have the maintenance stop in Special Steel in Q4 and we have practically no maintenance outage, yearly maintenance outage in Q1.

是的,但那是因为我们在第四季度在特殊钢铁公司进行了维护停止,而且我们几乎没有维护停机,第一季度的年度维护停机。

HåkanFolin

But if you compare to previous guidance, it's not a big difference though, it's a small. I mean we update and see what we're going to do basically all the time and we planned this maintenance outage. And at the end of Q2, we know more than we knew at the end of Q1. so that's -- sorry, I misunderstood your question, Christian.

但是,如果你与之前的指导相比,它并没有太大的区别,但它很小。 我的意思是我们一直在更新并查看我们将要做的事情,并且我们计划了这次维护中断。 在第二季度结束时,我们比第一季度末知道得多。 所以 - 对不起,我误解了你的问题,克里斯蒂安。

Martin Lindqvist

I did as well.

我做得也好。

Christian Kopfer

Okay. No worries. I just -- so the question is, I mean if margins are lower then the impact from maintenance should be lower. I mean...

好的。 别担心。 我只是 - 所以问题是,我的意思是如果利润率较低,那么维护的影响应该更低。 我的意思是...

HåkanFolin

Yes, but actually, in those tables, Christian, what we specify there is the direct cost for the maintenance work, especially for external companies coming and doing it. And we specify the unabsorption cost but we also write very explicitly that it does not include loss margin. So for exactly that reason that we don't want to speculate how much more this will go up and down.

是的,但实际上,在那些表格中,Christian,我们指定的是维护工作的直接成本,特别是对外部公司来说和做这件事。 我们指定了非吸收成本,但我们也非常明确地写出它不包括损失边际。 因此,正是出于这个原因,我们不想推测它会上下多少。

会议主持员

Our final question comes from the line of Robert Redin from Carnegie.

我们的最后一个问题来自卡内基的Robert Redin。

罗伯特雷丁

Just one follow up. Did you say that the smaller blast furnace in Oxelösund was sort of a part reason for the higher fixed cost year-over-year, and the year-over-year cost or operating profit bridge? And if so, now that you idle that one, how much would you expect to save on an annualized basis?

只需一个跟进。 您是否说Oxelösund中较小的高炉是同比较高的固定成本以及同比成本或营业利润桥梁的部分原因? 如果是这样,那么现在您已经闲置了那个,您希望在年度基础上节省多少钱?

HåkanFolin

Yes, we said that absolutely because we were not running that in Q2 last year, we were running it in Q2 this year. And what we have said that it's in total, it's around 100 workers that we have extra now in order to run the small blast furnace in Oxelösund.

是的,我们之所以这么说,绝对是因为我们在去年的第二季度没有运行,我们在今年的第二季度运行了它。 而我们所说的总共是100个工人,我们现在有额外的工作,以便在Oxelösund运行小型高炉。

罗伯特雷丁

All right. Yes, you say that, but do you also save running that production at higher utilization or efficiency somewhere else savings some money?

行。 是的,你这么说,但你是否也节省了以更高的利用率或效率运行该产品以节省一些钱?

HåkanFolin

Well, you can see that in terms of fixed cost, we also saved some on the maintenance work that we have to do when we are running one extra blast furnace. On the other hand, if you look specifically at Special Steel, you will see unabsorption cost being high when we're not running the small blast furnace. But overall, the larger blast furnace in Raahe is clearly much more efficient than the smaller one in Oxelösund. So when we look at from a group perspective, this is the most efficient way to handle the current situation.

那么,你可以看到,就固定成本而言,我们还节省了一些我们在运行一个额外高炉时必须要做的维护工作。 另一方面,如果你特别关注特殊钢,当我们没有运行小型高炉时,你会发现非吸收成本很高。 但总的来说,Raahe的大型高炉显然比Oxelösund的小型高炉效率更高。 因此,当我们从小组角度来看时,这是处理当前情况的最有效方式。

Martin Lindqvist

And if you look at specifically at fixed cost, they will be clearly lower because we have 120 people working at that small blast furnace.

如果你专注于固定成本,他们会明显降低,因为我们有120人在那个小型高炉工作。

会议主持员

Okay. So if it's been no further questions. I'll return the conference to speakers.

好的。 所以,如果没有进一步的问题。 我会把会议送回演讲者。

PerHillström

Okay. Thank you for the attention. That concludes today's conference. And we wish you all a nice summer. Thank you.

好的。 谢谢你的关注。 今天的会议就此结束。 我们祝大家夏天愉快。 谢谢。

Martin Lindqvist

Thank you.

谢谢。

HåkanFolin

Thank you very much.

非常感谢你。

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