Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) Q2 2019 Results Earnings Conference Call May 1, 2019 1:00 PM ET
Melinda Ellsworth - VP of IR & Corporate Communications
Jack Hockema - Chairman & CEO
Keith Harvey - President and COO
Neal West - Senior VP & CFO
Jennifer Huey - VP and Chief Accounting Officer
- Melinda Ellsworth - IR和企业传播副总裁
- Jack Hockema - 董事长兼首席执行官
- Keith Harvey - 总裁兼首席运营官
- Neal West - 高级副总裁兼首席财务官
- Jennifer Huey - 副总裁兼首席会计官
Martin Englert - Jefferies
Josh Sullivan - Seaport Global
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse
- Martin Englert - Jefferies
- Josh Sullivan - Seaport Global
- 柯特伍德沃思 - 瑞士信贷
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's program may we recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Melinda Ellsworth, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
美好的一天，女士们，先生们，欢迎参加凯撒铝业2019年第二季度收益电话会议。 此时，所有参与者都处于只听模式。 之后，我们将进行问答环节，届时将给出指示。 [操作员说明]提醒一下，我们今天的节目可能会录制。
我现在想介绍一下今天的主持人Melinda Ellsworth，投资者关系副总裁。 请继续。
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's second quarter and first half 2019 earnings conference call. If you've not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page on our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call. Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Jack Hockema; President and Chief Operating Officer, Keith Harvey; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West; and Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, Jennifer Huey.
Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first 2 slides of our presentation, and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, when filed, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 2018. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations. In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA, means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items, for which we've posted reconciliations in the appendix. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.
I would now like to turn the call over to Jack Hockema. Jack?
谢谢。大家下午好，欢迎来到凯撒铝业的第二季度和2019年上半年的财报电话会议。如果您还没有看到我们的收益发布副本，请访问我们网站kaiseraluminum.com上的“投资者关系”页面。我们还发布了此次调用的幻灯片演示文稿的PDF版本。今天与我联系的是首席执行官兼董事长Jack Hockema;总裁兼首席运营官Keith Harvey; Neal West高级副总裁兼首席财务官;副总裁兼首席会计官Jennifer Huey。
Thanks, Melinda, to everyone joining us on the call today. Our second quarter results were solid despite the impact of Trentwood planned maintenance outage on our largest casting complex, the hot line and the large plate stretcher. Excellent planning and execution by our Trentwood team resulted in a onetime EBITDA impact of approximately $10 million from maintenance cost, operating inefficiencies and lost production and shipments, substantially less than the previously anticipated $15 million impact.
Aerospace shipments continue to reflect the strength of our order book. Similar to the first quarter, general engineering shipments were constrained as we prioritized allocation of heat treat plate capacity to meet aerospace customer commitments.
Auto shipments in the second quarter reflect the transition from old to new programs. We expect new programs to gather momentum in the second half, and we remain very optimistic for strong automotive content in 2020 and 2021.
While the first half results include a negative impact of approximately $15 million from a combination of the planned Trentwood outage in the second quarter and unplanned downtime in the first quarter, first half EBITDA excluding the drag from the Trentwood downtime, reflects an implied run rate of approximately $60 million per quarter and EBITDA margins in the high 20s, further reinforcing our expectation for strong second half results.
Moving to Slide 6 and a summary of our outlook. We anticipate normal major maintenance in industrial demand seasonality in the second half, and we are well positioned with a very strong aerospace order book and with new automotive product ramping up.
Our outlook for the full year is unchanged, as we continue to anticipate low to mid-single-digit percent year-over-year increase in both shipments and value-added revenue, with EBITDA margin above 25%.
Although timing for resolution of the Boeing 737-MAX is uncertain, our second half aerospace order book is robust. We have had extensive communications with all of our strategic aerospace customers and we expect a very strong order book in 2020. In addition, we expect significant growth in automotive extrusions content in 2020 and 2021.
I'll now turn the call over to Neal to provide additional detail on the second quarter. Neal?
Thanks, Jack, and good morning. Value-added revenue in the second quarter was slightly lower than prior year quarter and lower shipments, partially offset by improved pricing.
Aerospace value-added revenue improved 6% from the prior year's second quarter and a 6% year-over-year increase in shipments, which was driven by our strong demand for aerospace products.
Automotive value-added revenue decreased 32% compared to the second quarter of last year on a 21% reduction in shipments and a shift to a lower value-added mix. As noted in previous earnings call, 2019 is a transitional year for automotive as old programs roll off and new programs launch and ramp-up. The timing and visibility of transitions are often uncertain because they are driven by the OEMs.
General engineering value-added revenue was up 3% year-over-year and a 13% reduction in shipments, reflecting improved pricing. The decline in shipments is primarily related to the reallocation of a portion of our heat treat plate capacity from general engineering to aerospace plate to meet the strong aerospace customer commitments.
In addition, overall, plate capacity was temporarily constrained by the planned Trentwood outage. For the first 6 months of 2019, total value-added revenue improved 4% on a 5% lower shipments, reflecting improved pricing for non-contract sales, higher aerospace shipments and lower shipments for automotive and general engineering applications.
Turning to Slide 9. EBITDA for the second quarter 2019 of $48 million declined compared to $55 million in the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the approximate $10 million EBITDA impact from the planned Trentwood outage. Improved pricing on non-contract sales was partially offset by lower automotive shipments and other cost inefficiencies.
EBITDA margin for the second quarter was approximately 23% compared to approximately 26% in the prior year quarter. EBITDA for the first half 2019 of a $104 million was comparable to the prior year period, reflecting continued strength in demand for our aerospace products and improved pricing on non-contract sales, that offset the negative impact of approximately $15 million related to the Trentwood planned and unplanned downtime, and lower automotive shipments due to program transitioning.
EBITDA margin decreased to 24% in the first half of 2019 as compared to approximately 25% in the prior year period, driven by the drag from the planned and unplanned downtime at Trentwood.
Turning to Slide 10. Operating income for the second quarter 2019 was $32 million. Adjusting for $3 million of non-run rate, non-cash losses, operating income for the second quarter of 2019 was $35 million compared to $44 million in our prior year quarter, reflecting the items previously mentioned, and an approximate $1 million year-over-year increase in depreciation expense.
Reported net income for the second quarter 2019 was $19 million or $1.18 per diluted share, reflecting an effective tax rate of 27%. Adjusting for non-run rate items, net income for the second quarter was $23 million compared to $28 million in the prior year quarter, again, due primarily to the planned downtime at Trentwood.
转向Slide 9. 2019年第二季度的EBITDA为4800万美元，与去年同期的5500万美元相比有所下降，主要反映了计划中的Trentwood停电对EBITDA的影响约为1000万美元。非合同销售的定价改善部分被汽车出货量下降和其他成本效率低下所抵消。
Adjusted earnings per diluted share in the second quarter declined to $1.40 from $1.68 in the prior year period. For the first half 2019, operating income, as reported, was $75 million. Adjusting for $4 million of non-run rate, noncash losses, first half 2019 operating income was $80 million, down slightly from $81 million in the prior year period. The decline primarily reflects an approximate $2 million increase in depreciation expense.
Reported net income for the first half 2019 was $47 million or $2.89 per diluted share. Adjusting for non-run rate items, first half net income was $53 million compared to $56 million in the prior year period.
Adjusted earnings per diluted share for the first half 2019 was $3.24 compared to $3.28 for the first half of 2018. Capital spending totaled $16 million for the second quarter and $30 million for the first half of 2019. We expect capital spending for the full year will be approximately $75 million to $80 million.
During the first half of 2019, we returned $49 million of cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. At June 30, cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $147 million, and borrowing availability on our revolving credit facility was approximately $292 million, providing us with significant financial flexibility.
And now I'll turn the call back over to Jack to discuss our outlook. Jack?
Thanks, Neal. Turning to Slide 12 and a summary of our comments today. We had excellent execution of the planned outage by our team at Trentwood in the second quarter, and we delivered solid results despite the short-term challenges at Trentwood and the transition from old to new products in our auto operations.
Our outlook for 2019 remains unchanged, and we continue to anticipate a strong second half and improved full year - year-over-year results compared to 2018. Demand for our aerospace product remains very strong, and our robust order book for the second half is expected to continue into 2020.
While our automotive product mix transition resulted in weak shipments in the first half, we expect growth to resume in the second half, with strong content growth anticipated in 2020 and 2021, driven by the transition from expiring programs to new ones.
As we look longer term, we remain well positioned to capitalize on the secular demand growth for our aerospace and automotive applications. In addition, we expect continued steady improvement in underlying manufacturing cost efficiency to drive additional value for all stakeholders.
Our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation support our growth and capital deployment priorities and provide sustainability through industry cycles.
We will now open the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Jefferies. Your question please?
[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Jefferies的Martin Englert。 你的问题好吗？
Hi. Good morning, everyone.
So while you've noted a strong second half aero order book despite the Max grounding, are you seeing any signs or changes in order activity or channel inventory adjustments associated with the Max program? Or is that the case where it's -- is it maybe being absorbed by other programs?
因此，尽管您已经注意到强大的下半年航空订单，尽管Max接地，您是否看到与Max计划相关的订单活动或渠道库存调整有任何迹象或变化？ 或者是它的情况 - 是否可能被其他程序吸收？
No. Well, I think it's -- certainly, a part of it is being absorption by other programs. But in our view and we made comment on the prior call that it had begun to appear to us that the destocking that we saw in 2017 and 2018 was overdone. And as we've had a lot more conversation over the past couple of months with all of our strategic customers, we're more convinced that that's the case. And it goes to a lot of the comments made by Boeing and others about the need to restore health to the supply chain.
So we think the supply chain got stretched very, very thin. And that's why we have a strong order book now, and we have had for really the past 12 months or so. But we're really looking at strengthening the second half and getting very, very strong indications about a very strong order book in 2020.
不，嗯，我认为 - 当然，其中一部分是被其他程序吸收。 但在我们看来，我们对先前的呼吁发表了评论，它已经开始向我们展示我们在2017年和2018年看到的去库存过度。 由于我们在过去几个月与所有战略客户进行了更多的对话，我们更加确信情况就是这样。 波音和其他人就需要恢复供应链的健康状况提出了很多意见。
所以我们认为供应链非常非常薄。 这就是为什么我们现在有一本强有力的订单，而且我们在过去的12个月左右都有过这样的订单。 但我们真的希望加强下半年，并在2020年获得非常强大的订单。
All right. And can you provide a little bit more color on the inventory destocking headwinds? Do you think that's fully embedded at this point? And that your shipments in the back half of the year and going forward will be more reflective of true underlying demand?
行。 你能为库存去库存的逆风提供更多的颜色吗？ 您是否认为此时已完全嵌入？ 您今年下半年和未来的出货量将更能反映真正的潜在需求吗？
Yes. But in fact, I think, it's reflecting more than underlying demand right now, because the destocking was overdone in our view. So really the strong order book we're seeing now is making up for insufficient orders in 2017 and 2018.
是。 但事实上，我认为，现在它反映的不仅仅是潜在的需求，因为我们认为去库存过度是过度的。 因此，我们现在看到的强大订单正在弥补2017年和2018年的订单不足。
So fair to think of it as a combination of robust program demand, coupled with some inventory restock?
Yes. That's exactly how I would characterize it. And then the anticipation with -- once we get the Boeing 737 resolved and Boeing starts ramping up the builds on the 737 with all of the other ramp-ups, we continue to see really strong growth going forward here.
是。 这正是我对它的描述。 接下来的预期 - 一旦我们让波音737得到解决，波音公司开始逐步增加737上的所有其他产品，我们将继续看到这里真正强劲的增长。
Okay. Thanks for all the color there. And if I could one another on the automotive. So while I understand there is uncertainty due to the program changeovers, do you have any visibility on a sequential basis on how volumes might compare or trend in 3Q versus 2Q, given the notable weakness in the Q2 volumes?
好的。 谢谢你们所有的颜色。 如果我能在汽车上互相帮助。 因此，虽然我理解由于程序转换而存在不确定性，但鉴于第二季度的明显疲软，您是否能够在顺序的基础上看到第三季度与第二季度的数据比较或趋势的可见性？
Yes. Right now, we're -- our internal forecast is up substantially year-over-year in terms of shipments in the third quarter. I won't give you a number, but it certainly is up.
是。 现在，我们 - 我们的内部预测在第三季度的出货量方面同比大幅增长。 我不会给你一个号码，但肯定是。
Okay. More comparable to prior quarters before 2Q here? Or exceeding...
好的。 比较2Q之前的季度更具可比性吗？ 或者超过......
Yes. I think you can really throw out the first half of this year, this is when we really saw the big impact from old programs coming off. And now we're starting to see the new programs began to ramp-up. So the first half is really a flyer. And frankly, there was some of that already in the fourth quarter last year, we had begun to see some programs running off in the fourth quarter.
So we're pretty confident now as we move into the second half that we've got the curve headed the other way. And we'll see strong year-over-year growth. And we're really optimistic about 2020 and 2021.
是。 我认为你今年上半年真的可以扔掉，这是我们真正看到旧计划的重大影响。 现在我们开始看到新计划开始增加。 所以上半场真的是传单。 坦率地说，去年第四季度已经有一些，我们已经开始看到一些节目在第四季度流失。
所以我们现在非常有信心，因为我们进入下半场，我们已经让曲线走向另一个方向。 而且我们将看到强劲的同比增长。 我们对2020年和2021年非常乐观。
Okay. Thanks for all the color there and congratulations on the outage execution in the quarter and looking forward to the second half results here.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan from Seaport Global. Your question please?
谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Seaport Global的Josh Sullivan。 你的问题好吗？
Hey, good morning.
Just following on the automotive trend there. What is the time line for the automotive content growth in 2020, 2021? You kind of hit on it, but are those contracts in-hand? And is there any way you could say whether you're weighted to trucks, SUVs or another category at this point?
关注汽车趋势。 2021年2020年汽车内容增长的时间线是多少？ 你有点打击它，但这些合同是否在手？ 你有没有办法说出你现在是否对卡车，SUV或其他类别的加权？
Well, yes, it is bird in the hand. And yes, it's more heavily weighted to large vehicles than small. However, there is a significant portion of both.
嗯，是的，它是手中的鸟。 是的，对于大型车辆而言，它比较重。 但是，两者都很重要。
Okay. And then historically, I think you've talked about the aluminum penetration story in automotive being about 6% above SAAR. Is that still the metric? Or are how you thinking about just growth of the penetration versus SAAR going forward?
好的。 然后在历史上，我认为你已经谈到汽车中铝的渗透率比SAAR高6％左右。 那还是指标吗？ 或者您是如何考虑未来SAAR的渗透增长？
Yes. Our outlook still is the 5.5% to 6% CAGR in terms of content growth.
Okay. Got it. And then I understand you're moving some capacity around for the strong aerospace demand. How does the general engineering market look in isolation outside of what you've moved around here?
好的。 得到它了。 然后我理解你正在为满足强大的航空航天需求而提高产能。 一般的工程市场如何孤立地看待你在这里移动的东西？
Well, there are really two components here: one is that industrial growth is slowing, it's not negative, but is slowing. Also, from some of the industry metrics we see, the distributor metrics are canary in the coal mine, which is rod and bar. Actual distributor shipments to their customers are down slightly year-over-year, and we think that's really supply chain rather than real demand.
So there is a combination of those that really makes our demand in general engineering relatively flat compared to what was really robust demand last year. But it's still strong. It's just the growth has slowed compared to the really strong growth we had previously.
嗯，这里有两个组成部分：一个是工业增长正在放缓，它不是负面的，而是在放缓。 此外，根据我们看到的一些行业指标，分销商指标在煤矿中是金丝雀，即棒和棒。 其客户的实际分销商出货量同比略有下降，我们认为这确实是供应链而非实际需求。
因此，与去年真正强劲的需求相比，真正使我们对通用工程的需求相对平稳的组合。 但它仍然很强大。 与我们之前的强劲增长相比，增长速度已经放缓。
Okay. Thank you. I’ll jump in the queue.
好的。 谢谢。 我会跳进队列。
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Curt Woodworth from Credit Suisse. Your question please?
谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Credit Suisse的Curt Woodworth。 你的问题好吗？
Hey. Good morning, Jack.
I was wondering if you can talk about the -- I guess how tight the extrusion market is looking. So you obviously have a pretty compelling platform launch cycle ahead of you. But do you think that will also translate into higher value-add revenue and in terms of the pricing of that backlog, relative to what has been running off?
我想知道你是否可以谈论 - 我想挤压市场看起来有多紧张。 所以你显然有一个非常引人注目的平台发布周期。 但是你认为这也将转化为更高的增值收入和积压的定价，相对于已经流失的东西？
No. I wouldn't say it's higher pricing, I'd say, it's comparable pricing in aerospace -- or auto, I'm sorry, in automotive, yes, yes.
不，我不会说这是更高的价格，我会说，这是航空航天的可比价格 - 或者汽车，对不起，汽车，是的，是的。
Okay. So basically you have operating leverage, but the -- I guess, the unit margin should be similar to what you've been seeing?
好的。 所以基本上你有经营杠杆，但是 - 我猜，单位保证金应该与你所看到的类似？
Correct. Yes, we're not seeing margin expansion on automotive sales.
Okay. And then on aero, could you just update us on what you think your capacity capability is. So if next year, you have a very strong environment it looks like you will and then you get 737-MAX back into the mix, what do you view as kind of your potential volume there?
And then can you talk about your strategy to optimize your mix in terms of allocating your highest margin products or are you seeing emergent demand, where you can get quick big margin spot sales, and basically just trying to formulate a little bit more of a view on next 12 months.
好的。 然后在航空上，您能否就我们认为您的容量能力更新我们。 因此，如果明年，你有一个非常强大的环境，它看起来像你将然后你得到737-MAX重新组合，你认为那里的潜在量是多少？
Sure. Our expansion at Trentwood, the $150 million modernization basically is complete. The equipment's in the ground and installed, however, we continue to have opportunities to capture the full potential there as we convert practices over from the old processing to the new way of processing.
And then the second component next year compared to this year is this year we had the big planned outage here in the second quarter, that restricted our capacity, and we had the unplanned outage in the first quarter. So our throughput has been restricted compared to what our actual capacity is this year.
So yes, we expect to have more capacity next year than this year. I won't put a number on it at this stage, but we certainly have opportunities to continue to grow our aerospace.
And longer term, we're pleased with what we've seen out of the investment that we've made, particularly on the hotline, we're seeing a lot more hot rolling capacity potential from the investment that we made that bodes well for long term.
We have a lot of downstream model mix, but we know exactly where we need to go to add capacity as the market demands it in future years.
Great. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
非常好。 非常感谢。 欣赏它。
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Jack Hockema for any further remarks.
谢谢。 [操作员说明]这确实结束了今天课程的问答环节。 我想把这个程序交还给Jack Hockema以获得进一步的评论。
Thanks, everyone. We were pleased with the second quarter and how well Trentwood performed under some really difficult circumstances with the major outage they had out there -- up there. And we're really, really optimistic about the strong order book we have going here in the second half and what we're hearing about 2020.
So we think we got some clear sailing here, and looking forward to strong results as we go forward. Look forward to updating you in the third quarter conference call in October. Thank you.
感谢大家。 我们很高兴第二季度以及特伦特伍德在一些非常困难的情况下表现得如何以及他们在那里遭遇的重大停电。 我们真的非常乐观地看待下半年我们在这里看到的强大订单以及我们在2020年所听到的情况。
所以我们认为我们在这里有一些明确的航行，并期待在我们前进的过程中取得强有力的成果。 期待在10月的第三季度电话会议中为您更新。 谢谢。
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for you participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.
女士们，先生们，感谢你们参加今天的会议。 这确实结束了该计划。 您现在可以断开连接。 美好的一天。
- 凯撒铝业 电话会议
- 凯撒铝业 财务报告
- 老虎证券开户教程 美股8折佣金， 港股免佣金, 如果入金3000美元，额外再赠送5次免佣卡
- 雪盈证券开户教程 开户后 最高可领取1066港币。美股佣金最低0.002美元/股，港股小额免佣，打新手续费全免
- 富途牛牛证券开户教程 开户即可领取1股汇丰，入金达到2万港币即可领取1股腾讯；新股一键认购，最高支持10倍杠杆融资，免新股认购手续费，暗盘交易免佣；
- 华盛通开证券户教程 开通美股或者港股， 享受现金200元,美股8折奖励。
- 微牛证券开户教程 开通后 享有200元现金奖励
- 必贝证券开户教程 开通后 享有280元现金奖励
- 玖富证券开户教程 开通后 最低入金1W港币可以领218元红包
- e投睿开户教程 开通后 可获得25美金奖励
- 友信证券开户教程 注册随机领3股，注册后可随机抽取苹果、腾讯、阿里、京东等热门股票