凯撒铝业公司 (KALU) 首席执行官 Jack Hockema 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年07月31日 · 29 次阅读 · 凯撒铝业

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (NASDAQ:KALU) Q2 2019 Results Earnings Conference Call May 1, 2019 1:00 PM ET

凯撒铝业公司(纳斯达克股票代码:[KALU])2019年第二季度业绩收益电话会议2019年5月1日美国东部时间下午1:00

公司参与者

Melinda Ellsworth - VP of IR & Corporate Communications
Jack Hockema - Chairman & CEO
Keith Harvey - President and COO
Neal West - Senior VP & CFO
Jennifer Huey - VP and Chief Accounting Officer

  • Melinda Ellsworth - IR和企业传播副总裁
  • Jack Hockema - 董事长兼首席执行官
  • Keith Harvey - 总裁兼首席运营官
  • Neal West - 高级副总裁兼首席财务官
  • Jennifer Huey - 副总裁兼首席会计官

电话会议参与者

Martin Englert - Jefferies
Josh Sullivan - Seaport Global
Curt Woodworth - Credit Suisse

  • Martin Englert - Jefferies
  • Josh Sullivan - Seaport Global
  • 柯特伍德沃思 - 瑞士信贷

会议主持员

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Kaiser Aluminum Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's program may we recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today's program, Melinda Ellsworth, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

美好的一天,女士们,先生们,欢迎参加凯撒铝业2019年第二季度收益电话会议。 此时,所有参与者都处于只听模式。 之后,我们将进行问答环节,届时将给出指示。 [操作员说明]提醒一下,我们今天的节目可能会录制。

我现在想介绍一下今天的主持人Melinda Ellsworth,投资者关系副总裁。 请继续。

Melinda Ellsworth

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Kaiser Aluminum's second quarter and first half 2019 earnings conference call. If you've not seen a copy of our earnings release, please visit the Investor Relations page on our website at kaiseraluminum.com. We have also posted a PDF version of the slide presentation for this call. Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Jack Hockema; President and Chief Operating Officer, Keith Harvey; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Neal West; and Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, Jennifer Huey.
Before we begin, I'd like to refer you to the first 2 slides of our presentation, and remind you that the statements made by management and the information contained in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations. For a summary of specific risk factors that could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's earnings release and reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including, when filed, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the full year ended December 2018. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements to conform the statement to actual results or changes in the company's expectations. In addition, we have included non-GAAP financial information in our discussion. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures are included in the earnings release and in the appendix of the presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA, means adjusted EBITDA, which excludes non-run rate items, for which we've posted reconciliations in the appendix. At the conclusion of the company's presentation, we will open the call for questions.
I would now like to turn the call over to Jack Hockema. Jack?

谢谢。大家下午好,欢迎来到凯撒铝业的第二季度和2019年上半年的财报电话会议。如果您还没有看到我们的收益发布副本,请访问我们网站kaiseraluminum.com上的“投资者关系”页面。我们还发布了此次调用的幻灯片演示文稿的PDF版本。今天与我联系的是首席执行官兼董事长Jack Hockema;总裁兼首席运营官Keith Harvey; Neal West高级副总裁兼首席财务官;副总裁兼首席会计官Jennifer Huey。

在开始之前,我想向您介绍我们演示文稿的前2张幻灯片,并提醒您管理层所做的陈述和本演示文稿中包含的信息构成了前瞻性陈述,这些陈述是基于管理层当前的期望。有关可能导致结果与前瞻性陈述中所表达的结果大不相同的具体风险因素的摘要,请参阅公司的财报和向美国证券交易委员会提交的报告,包括提交时的公司年度报告。截至2018年12月的全年10-K表格。公司没有义务更新任何前瞻性陈述,使陈述符合实际结果或公司预期的变化。此外,我们在讨论中包含了非GAAP财务信息。与最具可比性的GAAP财务指标的调节表包含在收益发布和演示文稿的附录中。我们今天讨论中对EBITDA的任何提及均指经调整的EBITDA,其中不包括非运行费率项目,我们已在附录中公布了对账。在公司介绍结束时,我们将打开问题的电话。

我现在想把这个电话转给Jack Hockema。插口?

Jack Hockema

Thanks, Melinda, to everyone joining us on the call today. Our second quarter results were solid despite the impact of Trentwood planned maintenance outage on our largest casting complex, the hot line and the large plate stretcher. Excellent planning and execution by our Trentwood team resulted in a onetime EBITDA impact of approximately $10 million from maintenance cost, operating inefficiencies and lost production and shipments, substantially less than the previously anticipated $15 million impact.
Aerospace shipments continue to reflect the strength of our order book. Similar to the first quarter, general engineering shipments were constrained as we prioritized allocation of heat treat plate capacity to meet aerospace customer commitments.
Auto shipments in the second quarter reflect the transition from old to new programs. We expect new programs to gather momentum in the second half, and we remain very optimistic for strong automotive content in 2020 and 2021.
While the first half results include a negative impact of approximately $15 million from a combination of the planned Trentwood outage in the second quarter and unplanned downtime in the first quarter, first half EBITDA excluding the drag from the Trentwood downtime, reflects an implied run rate of approximately $60 million per quarter and EBITDA margins in the high 20s, further reinforcing our expectation for strong second half results.
Moving to Slide 6 and a summary of our outlook. We anticipate normal major maintenance in industrial demand seasonality in the second half, and we are well positioned with a very strong aerospace order book and with new automotive product ramping up.
Our outlook for the full year is unchanged, as we continue to anticipate low to mid-single-digit percent year-over-year increase in both shipments and value-added revenue, with EBITDA margin above 25%.
Although timing for resolution of the Boeing 737-MAX is uncertain, our second half aerospace order book is robust. We have had extensive communications with all of our strategic aerospace customers and we expect a very strong order book in 2020. In addition, we expect significant growth in automotive extrusions content in 2020 and 2021.
I'll now turn the call over to Neal to provide additional detail on the second quarter. Neal?

谢谢,梅琳达,今天所有人都加入了我们的电话会议。尽管特伦特伍德计划维修停运对我们最大的铸造厂,热线和大板担架的影响,我们的第二季度业绩仍然稳固。我们的特伦特伍德团队精心策划和执行,导致维护成本,运营效率低下以及生产和装运损失导致的一次性EBITDA影响约为1000万美元,大大低于之前预计的1500万美元的影响。

航空航天货运继续反映我们订单的强度。与第一季度类似,由于我们优先分配热处理板容量以满足航空航天客户的承诺,因此一般工程出货量受到限制。

第二季度的汽车出货量反映了旧计划向新计划的转变。我们预计新计划将在下半年获得动力,我们仍然对2020年和2021年的强劲汽车内容持乐观态度。

虽然上半年业绩包括第二季度计划中的特伦特伍德停电和第一季度意外停工相结合的约1500万美元的负面影响,但上半年的EBITDA(不包括Trentwood停工时间的拖累)反映了隐含的运行率。每季度约为6000万美元,在20年代的EBITDA利润率进一步加强了我们对下半年业绩强劲的预期。

转到幻灯片6并总结我们的展望。我们预计下半年工业需求季节性的正常主要维护,我们已经准备好了一份非常强大的航空订单和新的汽车产品。

我们对全年的展望没有变化,因为我们继续预测出货量和增值收入同比增长中低单位数百分比,EBITDA利润率超过25%。

尽管波音737-MAX的分辨率时间不确定,但我们的下半年航空航天订单仍然强劲。我们与所有战略航空航天客户进行了广泛的沟通,我们预计2020年订单量非常强劲。此外,我们预计2020年和2021年汽车挤压内容将大幅增长。

我现在将电话转到Neal,提供第二季度的更多细节。尼尔?

尼尔西

Thanks, Jack, and good morning. Value-added revenue in the second quarter was slightly lower than prior year quarter and lower shipments, partially offset by improved pricing.
Aerospace value-added revenue improved 6% from the prior year's second quarter and a 6% year-over-year increase in shipments, which was driven by our strong demand for aerospace products.
Automotive value-added revenue decreased 32% compared to the second quarter of last year on a 21% reduction in shipments and a shift to a lower value-added mix. As noted in previous earnings call, 2019 is a transitional year for automotive as old programs roll off and new programs launch and ramp-up. The timing and visibility of transitions are often uncertain because they are driven by the OEMs.
General engineering value-added revenue was up 3% year-over-year and a 13% reduction in shipments, reflecting improved pricing. The decline in shipments is primarily related to the reallocation of a portion of our heat treat plate capacity from general engineering to aerospace plate to meet the strong aerospace customer commitments.
In addition, overall, plate capacity was temporarily constrained by the planned Trentwood outage. For the first 6 months of 2019, total value-added revenue improved 4% on a 5% lower shipments, reflecting improved pricing for non-contract sales, higher aerospace shipments and lower shipments for automotive and general engineering applications.
Turning to Slide 9. EBITDA for the second quarter 2019 of $48 million declined compared to $55 million in the prior year quarter, primarily reflecting the approximate $10 million EBITDA impact from the planned Trentwood outage. Improved pricing on non-contract sales was partially offset by lower automotive shipments and other cost inefficiencies.
EBITDA margin for the second quarter was approximately 23% compared to approximately 26% in the prior year quarter. EBITDA for the first half 2019 of a $104 million was comparable to the prior year period, reflecting continued strength in demand for our aerospace products and improved pricing on non-contract sales, that offset the negative impact of approximately $15 million related to the Trentwood planned and unplanned downtime, and lower automotive shipments due to program transitioning.
EBITDA margin decreased to 24% in the first half of 2019 as compared to approximately 25% in the prior year period, driven by the drag from the planned and unplanned downtime at Trentwood.
Turning to Slide 10. Operating income for the second quarter 2019 was $32 million. Adjusting for $3 million of non-run rate, non-cash losses, operating income for the second quarter of 2019 was $35 million compared to $44 million in our prior year quarter, reflecting the items previously mentioned, and an approximate $1 million year-over-year increase in depreciation expense.
Reported net income for the second quarter 2019 was $19 million or $1.18 per diluted share, reflecting an effective tax rate of 27%. Adjusting for non-run rate items, net income for the second quarter was $23 million compared to $28 million in the prior year quarter, again, due primarily to the planned downtime at Trentwood.

谢谢,杰克,早上好。第二季度的增值收入略低于去年同期和较低的出货量,但部分被价格改善所抵消。

航空航天增值收入较去年第二季度增长6%,出货量同比增长6%,这主要得益于我们对航空航天产品的强劲需求。

与去年第二季度相比,汽车增值收入下降了32%,出货量减少了21%,并且向低附加值组合转变。正如之前的财报电话会议所指出的那样,2019年是汽车的过渡年,因为旧计划的推出和新计划的启动和提升。转换的时间和可见性通常是不确定的,因为它们是由OEM驱动的。

由于价格改善,一般工程增加值收入同比增长3%,出货量减少13%。出货量的下降主要与我们的热处理板容量的一部分从一般工程重新分配到航空航天板以满足强大的航空航天客户承诺有关。

此外,总体而言,板材产能暂时受到计划中的特伦特伍德停运的限制。在2019年的前6个月,总出货值收入增长了4%,出货量下降了5%,这反映了非合同销售的定价改善,航空航运出货量增加以及汽车和通用工程应用的出货量下降。

转向Slide 9. 2019年第二季度的EBITDA为4800万美元,与去年同期的5500万美元相比有所下降,主要反映了计划中的Trentwood停电对EBITDA的影响约为1000万美元。非合同销售的定价改善部分被汽车出货量下降和其他成本效率低下所抵消。

第二季度的EBITDA利润率约为23%,而去年同期约为26%。 2019年上半年的1.09亿美元的EBITDA与去年同期相比,反映了我们对航空航天产品的需求持续增长以及非合同销售的定价改善,抵消了与计划中的Trentwood相关的约1500万美元的负面影响和计划外停机,以及由于程序转换导致的汽车出货量下降。

EBITDA利润率在2019年上半年降至24%,而去年同期约为25%,这主要得益于特伦特伍德计划内和计划外停机的拖累。

转向幻灯片10. 2019年第二季度的营业收入为3200万美元。调整了300万美元的非运行费率,非现金损失,2019年第二季度的营业收入为3500万美元,而去年同期为4400万美元,这反映了前面提到的项目,以及大约100万美元的年度结果。年折旧费用增加。

报告的2019年第二季度净收入为1,900万美元或每股摊薄收益1.18美元,反映的有效税率为27%。调整非运行费率项目,第二季度的净收入为2300万美元,而去年同期为2800万美元,这主要归功于特伦特伍德的计划停工时间。

Adjusted earnings per diluted share in the second quarter declined to $1.40 from $1.68 in the prior year period. For the first half 2019, operating income, as reported, was $75 million. Adjusting for $4 million of non-run rate, noncash losses, first half 2019 operating income was $80 million, down slightly from $81 million in the prior year period. The decline primarily reflects an approximate $2 million increase in depreciation expense.
Reported net income for the first half 2019 was $47 million or $2.89 per diluted share. Adjusting for non-run rate items, first half net income was $53 million compared to $56 million in the prior year period.
Adjusted earnings per diluted share for the first half 2019 was $3.24 compared to $3.28 for the first half of 2018. Capital spending totaled $16 million for the second quarter and $30 million for the first half of 2019. We expect capital spending for the full year will be approximately $75 million to $80 million.
During the first half of 2019, we returned $49 million of cash to shareholders in the form of share repurchases and dividends. At June 30, cash and short-term investments totaled approximately $147 million, and borrowing availability on our revolving credit facility was approximately $292 million, providing us with significant financial flexibility.
And now I'll turn the call back over to Jack to discuss our outlook. Jack?

第二季度每股摊薄净收益从去年同期的1.68美元降至1.40美元。据报道,2019年上半年的营业收入为7,500万美元。调整了400万美元的非运行费率,非现金损失,2019年上半年的营业收入为8000万美元,略低于去年同期的8100万美元。下降主要反映折旧费用增加约200万美元。

报告的2019年上半年净收入为4700万美元,每股摊薄收益为2.89美元。调整非运行费率项目,上半年净收入为5300万美元,而去年同期为5600万美元。

2019年上半年调整后的每股摊薄收益为3.24美元,而2018年上半年为3.28美元。第二季度的资本支出总额为1600万美元,2019年上半年为3000万美元。我们预计全年的资本支出将为大约7500万美元到8000万美元。

在2019年上半年,我们以股票回购和股息的形式向股东返还了4900万美元的现金。截至6月30日,现金和短期投资总额约为1.47亿美元,我们循环信贷额度的借款额约为2.92亿美元,为我们提供了巨大的财务灵活性。

现在我将把电话转回杰克,讨论我们的前景。插口?

Jack Hockema

Thanks, Neal. Turning to Slide 12 and a summary of our comments today. We had excellent execution of the planned outage by our team at Trentwood in the second quarter, and we delivered solid results despite the short-term challenges at Trentwood and the transition from old to new products in our auto operations.
Our outlook for 2019 remains unchanged, and we continue to anticipate a strong second half and improved full year - year-over-year results compared to 2018. Demand for our aerospace product remains very strong, and our robust order book for the second half is expected to continue into 2020.
While our automotive product mix transition resulted in weak shipments in the first half, we expect growth to resume in the second half, with strong content growth anticipated in 2020 and 2021, driven by the transition from expiring programs to new ones.
As we look longer term, we remain well positioned to capitalize on the secular demand growth for our aerospace and automotive applications. In addition, we expect continued steady improvement in underlying manufacturing cost efficiency to drive additional value for all stakeholders.
Our strong balance sheet and cash flow generation support our growth and capital deployment priorities and provide sustainability through industry cycles.
We will now open the call for questions.

谢谢,尼尔。转到幻灯片12和我们今天的评论摘要。我们在第二季度在Trentwood的团队执行了计划中断计划,并且尽管Trentwood的短期挑战以及我们汽车业务从旧产品到新产品的过渡,我们仍然取得了可靠的成果。

我们对2019年的前景保持不变,与2018年相比,我们继续预期下半年强劲并且全年同比增长。我们对航空航天产品的需求仍然非常强劲,我们下半年的强劲订单是预计将持续到2020年。

虽然我们的汽车产品组合转型导致上半年出货量疲软,但我们预计下半年将恢复增长,预计2020年和2021年的内容增长强劲,这是由于即将到期的计划向新的计划转变。

从长远来看,我们仍然能够充分利用航空航天和汽车应用的长期需求增长。此外,我们预计基础制造成本效率将持续稳步提升,为所有利益相关者带来额外价值。

我们强大的资产负债表和现金流量支持支持我们的增长和资本部署优先级,并通过行业周期提供可持

我们现在打开问题的电话。

问答环节

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Jefferies. Your question please?

[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Jefferies的Martin Englert。 你的问题好吗?

Martin Englert

Hi. Good morning, everyone.

你好。 大家,早安。

Jack Hockema

Hi, Martin.

嗨,马丁。

Martin Englert

So while you've noted a strong second half aero order book despite the Max grounding, are you seeing any signs or changes in order activity or channel inventory adjustments associated with the Max program? Or is that the case where it's -- is it maybe being absorbed by other programs?

因此,尽管您已经注意到强大的下半年航空订单,尽管Max接地,您是否看到与Max计划相关的订单活动或渠道库存调整有任何迹象或变化? 或者是它的情况 - 是否可能被其他程序吸收?

Jack Hockema

No. Well, I think it's -- certainly, a part of it is being absorption by other programs. But in our view and we made comment on the prior call that it had begun to appear to us that the destocking that we saw in 2017 and 2018 was overdone. And as we've had a lot more conversation over the past couple of months with all of our strategic customers, we're more convinced that that's the case. And it goes to a lot of the comments made by Boeing and others about the need to restore health to the supply chain.
So we think the supply chain got stretched very, very thin. And that's why we have a strong order book now, and we have had for really the past 12 months or so. But we're really looking at strengthening the second half and getting very, very strong indications about a very strong order book in 2020.

不,嗯,我认为 - 当然,其中一部分是被其他程序吸收。 但在我们看来,我们对先前的呼吁发表了评论,它已经开始向我们展示我们在2017年和2018年看到的去库存过度。 由于我们在过去几个月与所有战略客户进行了更多的对话,我们更加确信情况就是这样。 波音和其他人就需要恢复供应链的健康状况提出了很多意见。

所以我们认为供应链非常非常薄。 这就是为什么我们现在有一本强有力的订单,而且我们在过去的12个月左右都有过这样的订单。 但我们真的希望加强下半年,并在2020年获得非常强大的订单。

Martin Englert

All right. And can you provide a little bit more color on the inventory destocking headwinds? Do you think that's fully embedded at this point? And that your shipments in the back half of the year and going forward will be more reflective of true underlying demand?

行。 你能为库存去库存的逆风提供更多的颜色吗? 您是否认为此时已完全嵌入? 您今年下半年和未来的出货量将更能反映真正的潜在需求吗?

Jack Hockema

Yes. But in fact, I think, it's reflecting more than underlying demand right now, because the destocking was overdone in our view. So really the strong order book we're seeing now is making up for insufficient orders in 2017 and 2018.

是。 但事实上,我认为,现在它反映的不仅仅是潜在的需求,因为我们认为去库存过度是过度的。 因此,我们现在看到的强大订单正在弥补2017年和2018年的订单不足。

Martin Englert

So fair to think of it as a combination of robust program demand, coupled with some inventory restock?

如此公平地将其视为强大的计划需求和一些库存补充的组合?

Jack Hockema

Yes. That's exactly how I would characterize it. And then the anticipation with -- once we get the Boeing 737 resolved and Boeing starts ramping up the builds on the 737 with all of the other ramp-ups, we continue to see really strong growth going forward here.

是。 这正是我对它的描述。 接下来的预期 - 一旦我们让波音737得到解决,波音公司开始逐步增加737上的所有其他产品,我们将继续看到这里真正强劲的增长。

Martin Englert

Okay. Thanks for all the color there. And if I could one another on the automotive. So while I understand there is uncertainty due to the program changeovers, do you have any visibility on a sequential basis on how volumes might compare or trend in 3Q versus 2Q, given the notable weakness in the Q2 volumes?

好的。 谢谢你们所有的颜色。 如果我能在汽车上互相帮助。 因此,虽然我理解由于程序转换而存在不确定性,但鉴于第二季度的明显疲软,您是否能够在顺序的基础上看到第三季度与第二季度的数据比较或趋势的可见性?

Jack Hockema

Yes. Right now, we're -- our internal forecast is up substantially year-over-year in terms of shipments in the third quarter. I won't give you a number, but it certainly is up.

是。 现在,我们 - 我们的内部预测在第三季度的出货量方面同比大幅增长。 我不会给你一个号码,但肯定是。

Martin Englert

Okay. More comparable to prior quarters before 2Q here? Or exceeding...

好的。 比较2Q之前的季度更具可比性吗? 或者超过......

Jack Hockema

Yes. I think you can really throw out the first half of this year, this is when we really saw the big impact from old programs coming off. And now we're starting to see the new programs began to ramp-up. So the first half is really a flyer. And frankly, there was some of that already in the fourth quarter last year, we had begun to see some programs running off in the fourth quarter.
So we're pretty confident now as we move into the second half that we've got the curve headed the other way. And we'll see strong year-over-year growth. And we're really optimistic about 2020 and 2021.

是。 我认为你今年上半年真的可以扔掉,这是我们真正看到旧计划的重大影响。 现在我们开始看到新计划开始增加。 所以上半场真的是传单。 坦率地说,去年第四季度已经有一些,我们已经开始看到一些节目在第四季度流失。

所以我们现在非常有信心,因为我们进入下半场,我们已经让曲线走向另一个方向。 而且我们将看到强劲的同比增长。 我们对2020年和2021年非常乐观。

Martin Englert

Okay. Thanks for all the color there and congratulations on the outage execution in the quarter and looking forward to the second half results here.

好的。 感谢那里的所有颜色,并祝贺本季度停电执行,并期待下半年的结果。

Jack Hockema

Thanks, Martin.

谢谢,马丁。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan from Seaport Global. Your question please?

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Seaport Global的Josh Sullivan。 你的问题好吗?

Josh Sullivan

Hey, good morning.

嗨,早安。

Jack Hockema

Hey, Josh.

嘿,乔希

Josh Sullivan

Just following on the automotive trend there. What is the time line for the automotive content growth in 2020, 2021? You kind of hit on it, but are those contracts in-hand? And is there any way you could say whether you're weighted to trucks, SUVs or another category at this point?

关注汽车趋势。 2021年2020年汽车内容增长的时间线是多少? 你有点打击它,但这些合同是否在手? 你有没有办法说出你现在是否对卡车,SUV或其他类别的加权?

Jack Hockema

Well, yes, it is bird in the hand. And yes, it's more heavily weighted to large vehicles than small. However, there is a significant portion of both.

嗯,是的,它是手中的鸟。 是的,对于大型车辆而言,它比较重。 但是,两者都很重要。

Josh Sullivan

Okay. And then historically, I think you've talked about the aluminum penetration story in automotive being about 6% above SAAR. Is that still the metric? Or are how you thinking about just growth of the penetration versus SAAR going forward?

好的。 然后在历史上,我认为你已经谈到汽车中铝的渗透率比SAAR高6%左右。 那还是指标吗? 或者您是如何考虑未来SAAR的渗透增长?

Jack Hockema

Yes. Our outlook still is the 5.5% to 6% CAGR in terms of content growth.

是。 就内容增长而言,我们的前景仍然是复合年增长率为5.5%至6%。

Josh Sullivan

Okay. Got it. And then I understand you're moving some capacity around for the strong aerospace demand. How does the general engineering market look in isolation outside of what you've moved around here?

好的。 得到它了。 然后我理解你正在为满足强大的航空航天需求而提高产能。 一般的工程市场如何孤立地看待你在这里移动的东西?

Jack Hockema

Well, there are really two components here: one is that industrial growth is slowing, it's not negative, but is slowing. Also, from some of the industry metrics we see, the distributor metrics are canary in the coal mine, which is rod and bar. Actual distributor shipments to their customers are down slightly year-over-year, and we think that's really supply chain rather than real demand.
So there is a combination of those that really makes our demand in general engineering relatively flat compared to what was really robust demand last year. But it's still strong. It's just the growth has slowed compared to the really strong growth we had previously.

嗯,这里有两个组成部分:一个是工业增长正在放缓,它不是负面的,而是在放缓。 此外,根据我们看到的一些行业指标,分销商指标在煤矿中是金丝雀,即棒和棒。 其客户的实际分销商出货量同比略有下降,我们认为这确实是供应链而非实际需求。

因此,与去年真正强劲的需求相比,真正使我们对通用工程的需求相对平稳的组合。 但它仍然很强大。 与我们之前的强劲增长相比,增长速度已经放缓。

Josh Sullivan

Okay. Thank you. I’ll jump in the queue.

好的。 谢谢。 我会跳进队列。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Curt Woodworth from Credit Suisse. Your question please?

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Credit Suisse的Curt Woodworth。 你的问题好吗?

Curt Woodworth

Hey. Good morning, Jack.

嘿。 早上好,杰克。

Jack Hockema

Hey, Curt.

嘿,柯特。

Curt Woodworth

I was wondering if you can talk about the -- I guess how tight the extrusion market is looking. So you obviously have a pretty compelling platform launch cycle ahead of you. But do you think that will also translate into higher value-add revenue and in terms of the pricing of that backlog, relative to what has been running off?

我想知道你是否可以谈论 - 我想挤压市场看起来有多紧张。 所以你显然有一个非常引人注目的平台发布周期。 但是你认为这也将转化为更高的增值收入和积压的定价,相对于已经流失的东西?

Jack Hockema

No. I wouldn't say it's higher pricing, I'd say, it's comparable pricing in aerospace -- or auto, I'm sorry, in automotive, yes, yes.

不,我不会说这是更高的价格,我会说,这是航空航天的可比价格 - 或者汽车,对不起,汽车,是的,是的。

Curt Woodworth

Okay. So basically you have operating leverage, but the -- I guess, the unit margin should be similar to what you've been seeing?

好的。 所以基本上你有经营杠杆,但是 - 我猜,单位保证金应该与你所看到的类似?

Jack Hockema

Correct. Yes, we're not seeing margin expansion on automotive sales.

正确。 是的,我们没有看到汽车销售的利润增长。

Curt Woodworth

Okay. And then on aero, could you just update us on what you think your capacity capability is. So if next year, you have a very strong environment it looks like you will and then you get 737-MAX back into the mix, what do you view as kind of your potential volume there?
And then can you talk about your strategy to optimize your mix in terms of allocating your highest margin products or are you seeing emergent demand, where you can get quick big margin spot sales, and basically just trying to formulate a little bit more of a view on next 12 months.

好的。 然后在航空上,您能否就我们认为您的容量能力更新我们。 因此,如果明年,你有一个非常强大的环境,它看起来像你将然后你得到737-MAX重新组合,你认为那里的潜在量是多少?

然后你能谈谈你在分配最高利润产品方面优化你的组合的策略,或者你是否看到紧急需求,你可以快速获得大幅度的现货销售,并且基本上只是试图制定更多的观点 在接下来的12个月里。

Jack Hockema

Sure. Our expansion at Trentwood, the $150 million modernization basically is complete. The equipment's in the ground and installed, however, we continue to have opportunities to capture the full potential there as we convert practices over from the old processing to the new way of processing.
And then the second component next year compared to this year is this year we had the big planned outage here in the second quarter, that restricted our capacity, and we had the unplanned outage in the first quarter. So our throughput has been restricted compared to what our actual capacity is this year.
So yes, we expect to have more capacity next year than this year. I won't put a number on it at this stage, but we certainly have opportunities to continue to grow our aerospace.
And longer term, we're pleased with what we've seen out of the investment that we've made, particularly on the hotline, we're seeing a lot more hot rolling capacity potential from the investment that we made that bodes well for long term.
We have a lot of downstream model mix, but we know exactly where we need to go to add capacity as the market demands it in future years.

当然。我们在Trentwood的扩建,1.5亿美元的现代化基本上是完整的。然而,当我们将实践从旧处理转换为新的处理方式时,我们仍然有机会充分发挥其潜力。

然后明年的第二个组成部分与今年相比,今年我们在第二季度出现了大规模的计划中断,这限制了我们的容量,我们在第一季度出现了计划外的中断。因此,与今年的实际产能相比,我们的吞吐量受到限制。

所以是的,我们预计明年的产能将超过今年。在这个阶段我不会对它进行说明,但我们当然有机会继续发展我们的航空航天。

从长远来看,我们对我们从投资中所看到的一切感到高兴,特别是在热线上,我们看到我们所做的投资带来的热轧产能潜力更大长期。

我们有很多下游模型组合,但我们确切地知道我们需要增加容量,因为市场在未来几年需要它。

Curt Woodworth

Great. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

非常好。 非常感谢。 欣赏它。

会议主持员

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And this does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Jack Hockema for any further remarks.

谢谢。 [操作员说明]这确实结束了今天课程的问答环节。 我想把这个程序交还给Jack Hockema以获得进一步的评论。

Jack Hockema

Thanks, everyone. We were pleased with the second quarter and how well Trentwood performed under some really difficult circumstances with the major outage they had out there -- up there. And we're really, really optimistic about the strong order book we have going here in the second half and what we're hearing about 2020.
So we think we got some clear sailing here, and looking forward to strong results as we go forward. Look forward to updating you in the third quarter conference call in October. Thank you.

感谢大家。 我们很高兴第二季度以及特伦特伍德在一些非常困难的情况下表现得如何以及他们在那里遭遇的重大停电。 我们真的非常乐观地看待下半年我们在这里看到的强大订单以及我们在2020年所听到的情况。

所以我们认为我们在这里有一些明确的航行,并期待在我们前进的过程中取得强有力的成果。 期待在10月的第三季度电话会议中为您更新。 谢谢。

会议主持员

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen for you participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士们,先生们,感谢你们参加今天的会议。 这确实结束了该计划。 您现在可以断开连接。 美好的一天。

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