Nutrien (NTR) 首席执行官 Chuck Magro 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

Nutrien Ltd (NYSE:NTR) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2019 10:00 AM ET

Nutrien Ltd(纽约证券交易所代码:[NTR])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年7月30日美国东部时间上午10:00

公司参与者

Richard Downey – Vice President-Investor and Corporate Relations
Chuck Magro – President and Chief Executive Officer
Pedro Farah – Chief Financial Officer
Jason Newton – Head-Market Research
Susan Jones – Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer-Potash
Raef Sully – Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer-Nitrogen and Phosphate
Mike Frank – Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer-Retail

  • Richard Downey - 投资者和企业关系副总裁
  • Chuck Magro - 总裁兼首席执行官
  • Pedro Farah - 首席财务官
  • 杰森牛顿 - 市场研究主管
  • Susan Jones - 执行副总裁兼首席执行官Potash
  • Raef Sully - 执行副总裁兼首席执行官 - 氮和磷酸盐
  • Mike Frank - 执行副总裁兼首席执行官 - 零售

电话会议参与者

Andrew Wong – RBC Capital Markets
Steve Hansen – Raymond James
Ben Isaacson – Scotiabank
Joel Jackson – BMO Capital Markets
P.J. Juvekar – Citi
Jacob Bout – CIBC
Duffy Fischer – Barclays
John Roberts – UBS
Christopher Parkinson – Credit Suisse
Adam Samuelson – Goldman Sachs Group
Vincent Andrews – Morgan Stanley
Don Carson – Susquehanna Financial
Mark Connelly – Stephens
Jonas Oxgaard – Bernstein
Michael Piken – Cleveland Research
Steven Byrne – Bank of America
Selka Cook – JPMorgan

  • Andrew Wong - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场
  • 史蒂夫汉森 - 雷蒙德詹姆斯
  • Ben Isaacson - Scotiabank
  • 乔尔杰克逊 - BMO资本市场
  • P.J. Juvekar - 花旗
  • 雅各布布特 - CIBC
  • Duffy Fischer - 巴克莱
  • 约翰罗伯茨 - 瑞银集团
  • 克里斯托弗帕金森 - 瑞士信贷
  • 亚当萨缪尔森 - 高盛集团
  • 文森特安德鲁斯 - 摩根士丹利
  • Don Carson - Susquehanna Financial
  • 马克康纳利 - 斯蒂芬斯
  • 乔纳斯奥克斯加德 - 伯恩斯坦
  • 迈克尔皮肯 - 克利夫兰研究所
  • Steven Byrne - 美国银行
  • Selka Cook - 摩根大通

会议主持员

Greetings, and welcome to the Nutrien’s Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Richard Downey, Vice President of Investor and Corporate Relations.

问候,并欢迎来到Nutrien的2019年第二季度收益电话会议。 [操作员说明]提醒一下,此会议正在录制中。

我现在想把会议转交给投资者和企业关系副总裁理查德唐尼。

理查德唐尼

Thank you, operator. Good morning everyone, and welcome to the Nutrien’s Conference Call to discuss our second quarter results and outlook. On the phone with us today is Mr. Chuck Magro, President and CEO of Nutrien; Mr. Pedro Farah, our CFO; and the heads of our three business units.
As we conduct this conference call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these forecasts and conclusions; therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our current quarterly report to our shareholders as well as our most recent Annual Report, MD&A and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Security Commissions to which we direct you.
I will now turn the call over to Mr. Chuck Magro.

谢谢运营商。 大家早上好,欢迎来到Nutrien的电话会议,讨论我们的第二季度业绩和展望。 今天与我们联系的电话是Nutrien总裁兼首席执行官Chuck Magro先生; 我们的首席财务官Pedro Farah先生; 以及我们三个业务部门的负责人。

在我们召开本次电话会议时,我们就未来的期望,计划和前景所做的各种陈述都包含前瞻性信息。 在做出这些预测和结论时应用了某些重要假设; 因此,实际结果可能与我们的前瞻性信息中的结果大不相同。 有关这些因素和假设的其他信息包含在我们向股东提交的当前季度报告中,以及我们向加拿大和美国安全委员会提交的最新年度报告,MD&A和年度信息表中。

我现在将电话转给Chuck Magro先生。

Chuck Magro

Thanks, Richard. Good morning everyone, and welcome to Nutrien’s second quarter earnings call. As always, I will walk through the results and speak to our outlook, but before doing that, I want to share a few broad comments with you.
First, the weather. In North America, it has been like nothing we have ever seen before. In fact, it has gone into the history books as the worst nine months weather period in U.S. history, millions of acres went unplanted. This resulted in a lot less spend on crop inputs and it is a big reason why we are seeing a pause in global fertilizer demand growth this year.
Second, our business continued to show resiliency and stability. Nutrien delivered higher earnings in the first half supported by the quality of our assets and the strength of our integrated model. Even in Retail, our results were solid despite excess moisture preventing over 10 million acres of prime U.S. farmland from being planted. And that was just the headline number, a shortened application window also reduced crop input spending on many acres that did get planted.
Third, demand for grains and oil seeds is still growing, and supply is tightening. With fewer acres and what will almost certainly be below trend yields. We expect U.S. corn ending inventories to drop by as much as half this year. Markets have started to respond with corn prices up about 20% year-over-year. This is expected to set up for a significant increase in U.S. corn acreage and a strong rebound and crop input demand next year.
The final point is that we remain focused on our controllables, managing our costs and leveraging our ability to invest counter-cyclically is where we are focused. We outlined a plan at our Investor Day in May that provided a path to deliver long-term value and we are advancing it. We have allocated approximately $1 billion so far this year to expand our retail footprint in the U.S. and Australia, and to grow our proprietary products business. We believe market environments like this will play to our strengths.
During the second quarter, we also used our strong balance sheet and confidence in future cash flows to return capital to shareholders. We repurchased nearly 21 million shares during the second quarter alone, which brought our 5% authorized program to a close in less than four months. We also announced the 5% increase to our expected quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.45 a share. On these two fronts combined, we have returned $5.2 billion to shareholders since the close of the merger that is more capital returned over this period than any of our peers.
Now, with the high-level points out of the way, I will turn to our results. Nutrien’s adjusted net earnings for the second quarter was $1.58 per share and adjusted EBITDA was $1.9 billion. Our adjusted EBITDA on the first half increased by 18% to $2.6 billion supported by higher earnings in our potash and nitrogen businesses. We generated $1.7 billion in free cash flow during the first half up 47% from last year. Our cash production costs were in line with previous year and our G&A expenses were down 5%.

谢谢,理查德。大家早上好,欢迎来到Nutrien的第二季度财报电话会议。与往常一样,我将逐步介绍结果并说明我们的观点,但在此之前,我想与您分享一些广泛的评论。

首先是天气。在北美,它就像我们以前从未见过的一样。事实上,它已成为历史书籍,是美国历史上最糟糕的九个月天气期,数百万英亩未种植。这导致对作物投入的支出减少很多,这也是我们今年看到全球化肥需求增长暂停的一个重要原因。

其次,我们的业务继续表现出弹性和稳定性。由于我们的资产质量和综合模式的优势,Nutrien在上半年实现了更高的收益。即使在零售业,我们的结果也是稳固的,尽管多余的水分阻止了超过1000万英亩的美国优质农田的种植。这只是标题数字,缩短的应用程序窗口也减少了许多种植面积上的作物投入支出。

第三,对粮食和油籽的需求仍在增长,供应紧张。占地面积减少,几乎可以肯定低于趋势收益率。我们预计美国玉米期末库存量将下降多达一半。市场已开始应对玉米价格同比上涨约20%。预计明年美国玉米种植面积将大幅增加,反弹和作物投入需求将大幅增加。

最后一点是,我们仍然专注于我们的可控制,管理我们的成本,并利用我们的反周期投资能力是我们关注的重点。我们在5月的投资者日概述了一个计划,该计划提供了一条提供长期价值的途径,我们正在推进它。今年到目前为止,我们已拨出约10亿美元用于扩大我们在美国和澳大利亚的零售业务,并发展我们的专有产品业务。我们相信像这样的市场环境将发挥我们的优势。

在第二季度,我们还利用强大的资产负债表和对未来现金流的信心将资金返还给股东。仅在第二季度,我们就回购了近2100万股股票,这使我们的5%授权计划在不到四个月的时间内收盘。我们还宣布将我们预期的季度股息增加5%,将其提升至每股0.45美元。在这两个方面合并后,自合并结束以来,我们已向股东返还了52亿美元,这一期间的资本返还比我们任何同行更多。

现在,有了高级别的观点,我将转向我们的结果。 Nutrien第二季度的调整后净收益为每股1.58美元,调整后的EBITDA为19亿美元。由于我们的钾肥和氮肥业务收益增加,我们上半年调整后的EBITDA增长了18%,达到26亿美元。我们在上半年产生了17亿美元的自由现金流,比去年增加了47%。我们的现金生产成本与去年一致,我们的G&A费用下降了5%。

Retail EBITDA in the first half was $810 million, down 8% from the previous year. The impact of lower acreage and a limited opportunity to apply other crop inputs were the key drivers. When you consider that corn, soybean and canola acreage was off an estimated 7% that shows up in our bottom line. Gross margins held for all major retail product categories except for crop protection products, which were hindered by a limited window for pre-plant herbicide applications, and delayed pest pressure.
Nutrien’s crop protection sales were down 3% in the first half are relatively strong performance compared to U.S. industry sales that are estimated to be down more than 10%. Fertilizer margins were strong in a condensed application season highlighting benefits of our expensive distribution network. Our potash business continued to deliver excellent results. Potash EBITDA exceeded a $1 billion in the first half, up 42% from last year. Net selling prices rose by 26% with increases in both North America and offshore markets. Our domestic sales were impacted by weather issues in the first half, however, this was more than offset by record demand in offshore markets, particularly from Brazil and China. Potash cash cost of product manufactured with $59 per ton maintaining our position as one of the lowest cost global producers.
Nitrogen EBITDA was up 17% in the first half due to higher realized prices, lower North American gas prices and increased earnings from our equity investments. Our sales volumes and realized prices benefited from the strength of our North American distribution system and the diversity of our customer base. Our realized prices this quarter were also supported by stronger urea benchmark prices and logistical constraints on the river system that resulted in elevated pricing differentials.
Phosphate EBITDA was down 17% compared to the first half of 2018, we maintained our phosphate fertilizer volumes in the first half despite challenging market conditions.
Looking forward, we see a number of positive factors. Corn futures have strengthened to multi-year highs and growers holding inventories are benefiting from increased cash prices. Higher crop prices have increased grower incentives to maximize the yield of the current crop and we are seeing good demand in Q3 for topdress nitrogen and crop protection applications.
Historically, our Retail business is seasonally slower in July and August, but this year has been different. The combination of the delayed season and higher crop prices have resulted in our July retail sales being up over 40% compared to last year. With tighter supplies and improved prices, we see potential for around 95 million acres of corn planted next year. Higher corn acreage combined with lower crop input applications this spring should support strong recovery in crop input demand this fall and certainly, in the 2020.
In potash, global prices have remained relatively stable. Assuming an adequate application window, we expect a strong fall application season in the U.S. and a lot of inventory being pulled through the channel. Demand in Brazil is expected to remain robust, supported by favorable crop prices and continued acreage expansion. We expect customers in India to settle new potash contracts before China this fall although we have moderated our view of full-year shipments to these markets.

上半年零售EBITDA为8.1亿美元,比上年下降8%。较低种植面积的影响和应用其他作物投入的机会有限是关键因素。当你考虑玉米,大豆和油菜籽种植面积减少时估计有7%出现在我们的底线上。除作物保护产品外,所有主要零售产品类别的毛利率都有所下降,这些产品受到植物前除草剂应用窗口限制和虫害压力延迟的阻碍。

与美国工业销售相比,Nutrien的作物保护销售额下降3%,上半年的表现相对较强,估计下降超过10%。在浓缩的应用季节,肥料利润率很高,凸显了我们昂贵的分销网络带来的好处。我们的钾肥业务继续取得优异成绩。上半年钾肥EBITDA超过10亿美元,比去年增长42%。随着北美和离岸市场的增长,净销售价格上涨了26%。我们的国内销售受到上半年天气问题的影响,然而,这远远超过了离岸市场的创纪录需求,特别是巴西和中国。以每吨59美元的价格生产的Potash现金成本维持了我们作为全球成本最低的生产商之一的地位。

由于实际价格上涨,北美天然气价格下跌以及我们的股权投资收益增加,上半年氮EBITDA上涨17%。我们的销售量和实现的价格得益于我们北美分销系统的优势和我们客户群的多样性。本季度实现的价格也受到尿素基准价格上涨和河流系统物流限制的支撑,导致价格差异扩大。

与2018年上半年相比,磷酸盐EBITDA下降了17%,尽管市场环境充满挑战,我们仍在上半年维持磷肥产量。

展望未来,我们看到了许多积极因素。玉米期货已升至多年高位,持有库存的种植者受益于现金价格的上涨。较高的作物价格增加了种植者对当前作物产量最大化的激励,我们看到第三季度对地上氮和作物保护应用的需求良好。

从历史上看,我们的零售业务在7月和8月季节性较慢,但今年却有所不同。延迟季节和较高的作物价格相结合,导致我们7月份的零售额比去年增长了40%以上。随着供应紧张和价格上涨,我们预计明年将种植约9500万英亩的玉米。较高的玉米种植面积加上今年春季作物投入量的减少应该会支持今年秋季作物投入需求的强劲复苏,当然还有2020年。

在钾肥方面,全球价格保持相对稳定。假设有足够的应用程序窗口,我们预计美国将有一个强劲的秋季申请季节,并且很多库存都会通过该渠道。由于有利的作物价格和持续的种植面积扩张,巴西的需求预计将保持强劲。我们预计印度客户将在今年秋季之前在中国之前签订新的钾肥合约,尽管我们已经放松了对这些市场全年出货量的看法。

given weather-related lower North American demands in the first half and some short-term softness in other markets, we now forecast global potash shipments between 65 million and 67 million tons in 2019. We have therefore lowered our potash sales guidance to 12.6 million to 13 million tons. As always, we were able to respond if market opportunities emerge.
Similar to potash, we expect a strong fall nitrogen application season in the U.S. urea prices have outperformed other sources of nitrogen in part due to continued strong demand from India. global ammonia prices weakened through the first half, but we expect that seasonal curtailments in production along with improved demand will provide underlying support to prices in the second half of the year.
We have lowered our annual adjusted earnings guidance to $2.70 to $3 per share given the extreme weather impact from the first half of the year and our adjusted EBITDA guidance to $4.35 billion to $4.7 billion. The midpoint of our annual adjusted EBITDA guidance is up 15% from last year, which still represents strong year-over-year growth, demonstrating the synergy capture and the strengths of our business.
Moving beyond 2019, we see the potential for an excellent year in 2020 and we are making good progress against the long-term strategic agenda we laid out at our Investor Day. in Retail, we are transforming the business through scale, efficiency and digital leadership. We will continue to expand our business in core markets in North America and Australia while prudently building out our network in Brazil. We expect to grow retail earnings by around 60% over the five-year period driven by a combination of organic and inorganic growth initiatives and we have set clear performance targets in each of these areas.
As previously announced, we entered into an agreement to purchase Ruralco Holdings, the third largest ag retailer in Australia. We continue to work through the regulatory approval process and expect to close this transaction late in the third quarter. The retail acquisitions completed in 2019 will make a much greater contribution to our earnings next year.
in potash, we see opportunity to increase earnings in a relatively stable potash price environment through volume growth and further cost reductions. We have five million tons of production capability that we can bring online as demand grows, which is an opportunity that does not exist for any other potash producer. In nitrogen and phosphate, we continue to optimize our network and improve our cost positions. We are completing a number of smaller nitrogen expansion projects that offer attractive returns for our shareholders.
Nutrien’s integrated business model is designed to withstand events such as what happened this spring is also designed to capitalize on a long-term recovery in the ag markets, which we are starting to see positive signs in the second half of 2019. We are a company focused on delivering and we remain committed to building on a track record of performance for all of our stakeholders.

鉴于上半年天气相关的北美需求较低,而其他市场的短期疲软,我们现在预测2019年全球钾肥出货量在6500万至6700万吨之间。因此我们将钾肥销售指引下调至1260万吨至1300万吨。与往常一样,如果出现市场机会,我们能够做出回应。

与钾肥类似,我们预计美国尿素价格下跌的强劲下降季节表现优于其他氮源,部分原因是印度需求持续旺盛。全球氨价在上半年走弱,但我们预计季节性减产以及需求改善将为下半年的价格提供潜在支撑。

鉴于今年上半年的极端天气影响和我们调整后的EBITDA指引为43.5亿美元至47亿美元,我们已将年度调整后盈利预测下调至每股2.70美元至3美元。我们的年度调整后EBITDA指引的中点比去年增加了15%,这仍然代表了强劲的同比增长,展示了协同效应和我们业务的优势。

从2019年开始,我们看到了2020年出色的一年的潜力,我们在投资者日制定的长期战略议程上取得了良好的进展。在零售领域,我们通过规模,效率和数字领导力改变业务。我们将继续扩大在北美和澳大利亚核心市场的业务,同时谨慎地在巴西建立我们的网络。在有机和无机增长计划的共同推动下,我们预计五年内零售收入将增长约60%,并且我们已在每个领域设定了明确的绩效目标。

如前所述,我们签署了购买澳大利亚第三大农业零售商Ruralco Holdings的协议。我们将继续通过监管审批流程,并期望在第三季度末完成此交易。 2019年完成的零售收购将为我们明年的收益做出更大的贡献。

在钾肥方面,我们看到通过销量增长和进一步降低成本,在相对稳定的钾肥价格环境中增加收益的机会。我们有500万吨的生产能力,我们可以随着需求的增长在线提供,这是任何其他钾肥生产商都不存在的机会。在氮和磷酸盐方面,我们将继续优化我们的网络并改善我们的成本状况。我们正在完成一系列较小的氮扩张项目,为我们的股东提供有吸引力的回报。

Nutrien的综合商业模式旨在抵御诸如今年春天发生的事件,旨在利用农产品市场的长期复苏,我们开始在2019年下半年看到积极的迹象。我们是一家公司专注于交付,我们仍然致力于为所有利益相关者建立绩效记录。

We would now be happy to answer your questions. Thank you for listening.

我们现在很乐意回答您的问题。 谢谢你的收听。

问答环节

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自RBC Capital Markets的Andrew Wong。 你的生产线现已开放。

Andrew Wong

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So, obviously, 2019 is in pretty difficult operating environment, a lot of market factors, trade disputes, weather disruptions that kind of stuff. But you’ve done well to grow your earnings executing on your controllables. So, if you’re thinking to next year and I know it’s a little early for that, but we’re already into the next ag season, right? So, can you just talk about some of the earnings catalyst we should be thinking about both from a market side of things and company-specific side? I know you touched on some of them in the prepared remarks, but it’d be great to hear more about that.

嘿,早上好,谢谢你接受我的问题。 所以,显然,2019年处于相当困难的经营环境,很多市场因素,贸易纠纷,天气中断那种东西。 但是你已经做得很好,可以增加你的可控制器上的收益。 那么,如果你想到明年,我知道它有点早,但我们已经进入下一个农业季节,对吧? 那么,你能谈谈我们应该从市场方面和公司特定方面考虑的一些盈利催化剂吗? 我知道你在准备好的评论中谈到了其中的一些,但是听到更多关于这一点的信息会很棒。

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Andrew. Sure. So, it is a little bit early, but I think that the backdrop that we’re seeing right now is that we do expect a pretty significant rebound in the market fundamentals in 2020 and you can see it in crop pricing futures, but you can also see it in some of our business that we’re seeing in retail with crop protection in the third quarter. The fall season we think, will be quite strong as well. It’s going to be of course, the weather dependent and see if we have the application window. But I think 2020 is setting up to be a very good agricultural year and that’s going to be company independent.
from nutrien’s perspective of course, we’ve been aggressive with our M&A activity in retail and I think you’re going to see the full value of the those investments from a shareholder perspective in 2020 in a more, what I say, normal or strengthening year. And so that is certainly going be something that’ll be on full display when it comes to nutrien’s specific earnings growth for retail. I think the work that we’ve done in our production businesses in nitrogen and phosphate, but also in potash to take our costs out and to optimize the network. So, there’s still some of the full value that you were going to see from the synergy capture that we’ve delivered and the incremental work that we outlined at our Investor Day in May. I think you’re going to see continued improvement in our cost in the production business and of course, the demand increase is particularly in potash. I think we’ll be one of the few companies that can kind of rise to the demand needs that we think will happen in 2020.
So, overall, things are early to really comment definitively, but what we see is that I think we’re going to be having the company fundamentals that we’ve been focused on and investing on for the last couple of years beyond full display for 2020. But the backdrop of the agricultural fundamentals in 2020, I think it’s going to be quite a rebound year based on what we’re seeing so far.

早上好,安德鲁。当然。所以,这有点早,但我认为我们现在看到的背景是,我们预计2020年市场基本面会出现相当大的反弹,你可以在作物价格期货中看到它,但你可以在我们的一些业务中也看到了我们在零售业中看到的第三季度的作物保护。我们认为,秋季也将非常强劲。当然,这取决于天气,看看我们是否有应用程序窗口。但我认为2020年将成为一个非常好的农业年,而且这将是公司独立的。

从Nutrien的角度来看,我们一直积极参与零售业的并购活动,我认为从2020年的股东角度看,这些投资的全部价值将更多,我所说,正常或强化年。因此,当涉及到营养素零售业的特定盈利增长时,这肯定会得到充分展示。我认为我们在氮和磷酸盐的生产业务中所做的工作,以及钾肥的工作,以消除我们的成本并优化网络。因此,您将从我们已经交付的协同捕获以及我们在5月的投资者日概述的增量工作中看到一些全部价值。我认为您将看到我们在生产业务中的成本不断提高,当然,需求增加尤其是钾肥。我认为我们将成为少数能够满足我们认为将在2020年发生的需求需求的公司之一。

因此,总的来说,事情很早就真正得到了明确的评论,但我们看到的是,我认为我们将会拥有公司的基本面,而这些基本面已经过去几年并且在过去的几年里一直在投资。但是,在2020年农业基本面的背景下,我认为基于我们目前看到的情况,这将是一个相当大的反弹年。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Steve Hansen和Raymond James。 你的生产线现已开放。

史蒂夫汉森

Yes. Good morning, guys. Thanks for the question. Just wondering if you could quickly discuss the demand outlook for potash into China and India, where you’ve notably pulled back your expectations a little bit on the back half of the year and just any nuances around the settlements that you’ve previously alluded to at the event that you might settle? Thanks.

是。 早上好家伙。 谢谢你的提问。 只是想知道你是否可以快速讨论钾肥进入中国和印度的需求前景,在那里你明显地在今年下半年略微回调了你的期望,以及你之前提到的定居点的任何细微差别 在你可能解决的事件? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Sure. I’ll give you a high-level perspective and then I’ll have, Susan Jones, our potash CEO talk about some of the specifics. So, you’re right, Steve, what we did with the guidance we did reduce it by two million tons. and that’s simply because we believe that in North America, we’ve lost somewhere around 800,000 tons, maybe even a bit more because of weather, and not being able to get the applications down. We are seeing some what I call short-term softness in Southeast Asia due to corn prices, which we believe will improve next year as well. And so that’s all in the consideration of the reduction in guidance.
So, now when it comes to the China, what I’d say is that so far this year, we’ve seen good demand. in fact, it’s one of the reasons why I think we’ve had a good first half of the year and we do believe that China needs even more of the potash this year. So, what I think will happen though is that we will see probably a delayed, a timeline for the contract in China simply because they know that a demand in the U.S. has been off. And for us, our position is quite clear when we set our guidance, you can see it in the downside. And then in the upside of our guidance is we believe that certainly in the short-term, no deal with China’s better than a bad deal, because the overall fundamentals for potash are improving and the global markets are tightening and as we move into the fall and into 2020, we think that we’re going to see strengthening in the potash markets. And so we’re going to be patient with the contract negotiations for China this year. Susan, do you want to add a little bit more color, maybe comment on India.

当然。我会给你一个高层次的观点然后我会有,Susan Jones,我们的钾肥CEO谈论一些具体细节。所以,你是对的,史蒂夫,我们用我们所做的指导做了什么,减少了200万吨。而这仅仅是因为我们相信在北美,我们已经损失了大约80万吨,甚至可能因为天气而更多,并且无法减少应用程序。我们看到一些我认为由于玉米价格导致的东南亚短期疲软,我们认为玉米价格明年也会有所改善。所以这一切都在考虑减少指导。

所以,现在谈到中国​​,我要说的是今年到目前为止,我们已经看到了良好的需求。事实上,这也是我认为今年上半年表现良好的原因之一,我们相信今年中国需要更多钾肥。因此,我认为会发生的事情是,我们可能会看到中国合同的延迟和时间表,仅仅是因为他们知道美国的需求已经消失。对我们而言,当我们设定指导时,我们的立场非常明确,您可以在下行中看到它。然后,在我们的指引中,我们认为当然在短期内,没有与中国做得好而不是坏交易,因为钾肥的整体基本面正在改善,全球市场正在收紧,随着我们进入跌势到2020年,我们认为我们将看到钾肥市场走强。因此,今年我们将对中国的合同谈判保持耐心。苏珊,你想增加一点颜色,也许对印度发表评论。

苏珊琼斯

Sure, Chuck. Good morning, Steve. As Chuck mentioned, the demand into China, the first half this year has been particularly robust and our expectation of imports into China year-over-year will be up a million ton. They have indicated that they will not be allowing seaborne imports into the country after the end of August. While we do know that port inventories are higher than this time last year, we also know that inland inventories are low and what’s going to really determine when they settle their contract will be how soon the NPK producers will start taking products and draw them from the ports. But what I can say is that the longer they delay the contract settlement, the higher the demand is going to be for 2020. It’s going to set us up really nicely for that year. in terms of India, our intelligence is that they do expect to be actually settling their contracts this fall and we do expect they will come in and settle before China. They have certainly had some delays in demand due to lower monsoon, but we are expecting that that is a short-term and they will come in for about normal to maybe a little bit less than last year.

当然,查克。早上好,史蒂夫。正如查克所说,对中国的需求,今年上半年特别强劲,我们对中国进口的预期将增加一百万吨。他们表示,他们不会在8月底之后允许海运进口到该国。虽然我们确实知道港口库存高于去年的这个时间,但我们也知道内陆库存很低,而且在他们履行合同时真正决定的将是NPK生产商将多久开始采购产品并从中吸取产品。端口。但我可以说的是,他们推迟合同结算的时间越长,2020年的需求就越高。这将使我们在那一年的表现非常好。就印度而言,我们的情报是,他们确实希望在今年秋天真正解决合同,我们确实希望他们会在中国之前进入和解决。由于季风较低,他们肯定会有一些需求延迟,但我们预计这是短期的,他们将进入正常水平,可能比去年略低一些。

会议主持员

our next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自加拿大丰业银行的Ben Isaacson。 你的生产线现已开放。

本·艾萨克森

Thank you. Good morning. nice job stick handle in Q2. Just a question on nitrogen and potash; on nitrogen, I keep hearing how the fall is setting up to look really strong and I was hoping you could frame that or add some goalposts. given farmer economics, where a dealer and even farmer inventories and how do we kind of break up ammonia, urea and nitrates and kind of maybe a trade war resolution. What does that mean? on potash, you’ve talked a lot about demand and seeing some pockets of softness there. What are you seeing on the supply side? Any abnormalities or any surprises coming out of Russia, the Bethune project or anything else like that? Thanks.

谢谢。 早上好。 Q2的好工作棒。 只是关于氮和钾肥的问题; 在氮气方面,我一直听说秋天是如何设置看起来非常强大的,我希望你可以构建或添加一些球门柱。 鉴于农民经济学,经销商甚至农民库存,我们如何分解氨,尿素和硝酸盐,以及可能是贸易战的解决方案。 那是什么意思? 在钾肥上,你已经谈了很多关于需求并且看到一些柔软的东西。 您在供应方面看到了什么? 来自俄罗斯,白求恩项目或其他类似的任何异常或任何意外? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Ben. So, what we’ll do is we’ll have Raef Sully talk about that the nitrogen in the fall. I think it may be helpful to also have Mike Frank talk about what are you seeing at the farm level and the retail level. and then we’ll move over to Susan for the potash demand supply question. So, go ahead, Raef.

早上好,本。 那么,我们要做的就是让Raef Sully谈论秋天的氮气。 我想让Mike Frank谈谈您在农场和零售层面看到的内容可能会有所帮助。 然后我们将转向苏珊,寻找钾肥需求供应问题。 所以,继续吧,Raef。

Raef Sully

Thanks very much. So, Ben, we've very bullish on the outlook for nitrogen in the second half is a few things here. obviously, in Chuck’s comments, we noted that crop prices are supporting large corn acres in 2020. That’s going to drive a very good fall application for just across all of the nutrients. but nitrogen though, let me just start with the ammonia, if you look globally at the supply and demand, supply is tightening. in 2018, there was a net addition of at 1.1 million tons of merchants ammonia.
in 2019, it’ll be about 0.6 million tons against that global demand is increasing by 2 million tons to 2.5 million tons a year. So, it wasn’t for the fact that we had such a bad spring application of ammonia, I think you’d start to see tamper moving up already. It rolled last time. So, it’s flat at 215. We think that’s the bottom of the market. We think we’ll start to see at tightening and going up. urea showed some strength through the season. that’s been helped offshore demand. So we expect to see urea process tick up as well and you will have noted CS being out in the market in the last couple of days with the UAN fuel price. We feel pretty confident about it. if there is a narrow application window, we think that’s actually an advantage to us. in narrow application windows, we have the depth of distribution to be able to get the product after the customers. So, we actually feel that’s an advantage to us.

非常感谢。所以,本,我们非常看好下半年氮的前景是这里的一些事情。很明显,在Chuck的评论中,我们注意到2020年农作物价格正在支撑大面积的玉米种植面积。这将推动一个非常好的秋季应用,以满足所有营养素的需求。但是氮气虽然让我从氨开始,如果从全球看供应和需求,供应紧张。在2018年,净增加了110万吨氨商。

在2019年,全球需求量将增加约60万吨,每年增加200万吨,达到250万吨。所以,不是因为我们的氨弹簧应用如此糟糕,我认为你已经开始看到篡改已经上升了。它上次滚动。因此,它持平于215.我们认为这是市场的底部。我们认为我们将开始看到收紧和上涨。尿素在整个季节表现出一定的力量。这有助于离岸需求。因此,我们预计尿素工艺也会出现上升,并且您会注意到CS在过去几天内以UAN燃料价格进入市场。我们对此非常有信心。如果有一个狭窄的应用程序窗口,我们认为这对我们来说实际上是一个优势。在狭窄的应用程序窗口中,我们拥有深度分布,以便能够在客户之后获得产品。所以,我们实际上觉得这对我们来说是一个优势。

Chuck Magro

And then Mike, why don’t you talk about nitrogen demand for the fall that you’re seeing at the retail and farm level.

然后迈克,你为什么不谈论你在零售和农场层面看到的秋季的氮需求。

Mike Frank

Sure. Thanks, Chuck. So Ben, maybe, I’ll first start a little bit about our fertilizer sales in the first half of this year, even though as you know, we’ve lost over 10 million acres of planted acres, our retail business performed very well on fertilizer. Our volumes were about flat in potash, and up about 3% in nitrogen and our margins were up about $10. And so it really demonstrated our supply chain in the challenging market, will be delivered at the farm-gate. As we talked to farmers right now about their plans for 2020, most of these acres that didn’t get planted we expect are going to go into corn, there’s going to be more corn on corn. And so it’s easy to see 95 million plus acres setting up for 2020 especially with where commodity prices are today.
And our customers are all already talking to us about making sure that we’re going to be ready to service their fields this fall as soon as the window opens up. And so we need a window to get some fertilizer down this fall. last fall was a challenging window. We didn’t get down as much as we expected. So, the window does matter, but we do expect demand for NP&K to be extremely strong going into 2020.

当然。谢谢,查克。所以Ben,也许,我会在今年上半年开始关注我们的肥料销售,尽管如你所知,我们已经失去了超过1000万英亩的种植面积,我们的零售业务表现非常好肥料。我们的产量与钾肥持平,氮含量上涨约3%,我们的利润率上涨约10美元。因此,它确实展示了我们在充满挑战的市场中的供应链,将在农场门口交付。当我们正在与农民谈论他们的2020年计划时,我们预计大部分没有种植的土地将进入玉米,玉米将会有更多的玉米。因此,很容易看到2020年的9500万英亩土地,特别是今天的商品价格。

而且我们的客户都在与我们谈论确保我们准备好在窗口打开后立即为他们的领域提供服务。所以今年秋天我们需要一个窗口来减肥。去年秋天是一个充满挑战的窗口我们没有像我们预期的那样下降。因此,窗口确实很重要,但我们确实预计到2020年NP&K的需求将非常强劲。

Chuck Magro

Thanks. Susan, why don’t talk about potash supply please?

谢谢。 苏珊,为什么不谈钾肥供应呢?

苏珊琼斯

Okay, thanks. Good morning, Ben. just before I get into the supply side, I do want to address the second half domestically, because I was discussing offshore in my last question. So, in terms of a fall application, assuming the weather enables a strong application season this fall, we do expect to see robust demand in the U.S. Given the lack of application both this spring, but also last fall, because they need to replenish the nutrients removed. And just to give you a sense of that, we ran a very successful summer fill program. We were oversubscribed on this and we had to close it early. And as recently as last week at the Southwest Fertilizer Conference, there was a lot of optimism by retailers expressed by their growers on both second half shipments that continued affordability of potash, but also looking out into 2020.
In terms of supply, yes, I would say that perhaps we’re not surprised, but we have seen continued flow ramp-ups from our competitors. You asked about K+S, they did recently announce lower volumes due to longer turnaround to address all the issues and it looks like they’ll be coming in as they have stated at about 1.7 million tons this year on the lower end of guidance. in addition to that, EuroChem did announce the delay of the VolgaKaliy operation till 2020 and Eurokali has indicated further issues with us too. So, as expressed at Investor Day, I think this continued slowness of ramp up, is what we would expect to see as these ramp-ups continue, but it’s also helping to support the firmness and the supply demand balance.

好的谢谢。早上好,本。就在我进入供应方面之前,我确实想在国内下半年解决,因为我在上一个问题中讨论了离岸问题。因此,就秋季应用而言,假设天气在今年秋季推出强劲的应用季节,我们确实预计美国需求旺盛。鉴于今年春季以及去年秋季都缺乏应用,因为他们需要补充去除营养素。为了让您了解这一点,我们开展了一个非常成功的夏季填充计划。我们被超额认购,我们不得不提前关闭它。而就在上周举行的西南肥料大会上,零售商对其下半年出货量表明持续负担得起钾肥的零售商表现出了很多乐观,同时也关注到2020年。

在供应方面,是的,我想说也许我们并不感到惊讶,但我们已经看到来自竞争对手的持续流量增加。你问及K S,他们最近宣布由于更长的周转时间来解决所有问题,并且看起来他们将会进入,因为他们在指导的低端已经表明今年约170万吨。除此之外,EuroChem确实宣布VolgaKaliy运营延迟至2020年,而Eurokali也表示了我们的进一步问题。因此,正如投资者日所表达的那样,我认为这种持续缓慢的增长是我们预期的,因为这些增长持续,但它也有助于支持坚挺和供应需求平衡。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Joel Jackson和BMO Capital Markets。 你的生产线现已开放。

乔尔杰克逊

Thanks. Good morning everyone. maybe a two-part question, just following up on the inventory situation. Maybe, Mike could talk about what we’re seeing in the channel for inventories of the different crop protection chemicals and seeds. And then maybe Chuck, you could talk about, I think, you did many share buybacks in the first half of the year as largely, you closed the authorization, could we see more buybacks in the second half with the new authorization? Thanks.

谢谢。 大家,早安。 也许是一个由两部分组成的问题,只是跟进库存情况。 也许,迈克可以谈谈我们在渠道中看到的不同作物保护化学品和种子的库存。 然后也许Chuck,你可以谈谈,我想,你在今年上半年做了很多股票回购,因为很大程度上,你关闭了授权,我们可以通过新的授权在下半年看到更多的回购吗? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Thanks, Joel. Mike, go ahead and talk about inventory please.

谢谢,乔尔。 迈克,请继续谈谈库存。

Mike Frank

Yes. good morning, Joel. So as you know, the entire retail industry brought a lot of inventory into the 2019 year. on crop protection and everyone was set up for a strong both seed and fertilizer market. And of course, the way they first half played out with weather and then acres ultimately not getting planted, it had a significant impact. As Chuck mentioned in his opening remarks, the crop protection market based on point-of-sales data is down 11% in the first half of the year. And yet our business is only down 3%. So, we performed extremely strong in the crop protection market. Our inventory, I can’t speak to the rest of the industry, but our crop protection inventories are now coming out of the end of the first half. We’re flat with last year. And as chuck mentioned, we’ve had a really strong July in fact, we’ve continued to sell a lot of herbicides through the month of July.
So, we’re now pulling down inventory on a comparable basis. And so we feel good going into the second half of the year as we prepare for 2020 in the year that’s coming, our crop protection inventories are back in line with where we want them to be. Seed inventories, of course, we have some of our own seed business, where we’re going to be carrying higher inventories into next year, because of acres that didn’t get planted. And on third-party seed that we sell, that does get returned to our supplier. And so we’re restocking that seed right now. We’re checking for quality and we’re setting up to get ready for next year’s season.
So, overall, both on crop protection and seed, we feel good about where we’re at with inventories. finally, with fertilizer again, this season didn’t play out exactly as we expected, but we did a good job of de-inventorying our fertilizer. We’re up in a couple of areas like ammonia for example, which this spring just didn’t allow for the ammonia to go down as we expected. But we’re restocking fertilizer right now in preparation for a window this fall.

是。早上好,乔尔。如您所知,整个零售行业在2019年带来了大量库存。在作物保护方面,每个人都建立了强大的种子和肥料市场。当然,他们上半场的方式与天气,然后是最终没有种植的土地,它产生了重大影响。正如Chuck在开场白中提到的那样,基于销售点数据的作物保护市场在今年上半年下降了11%。然而,我们的业务仅下降了3%。因此,我们在作物保护市场上表现得非常强劲。我们的库存,我不能跟其他行业说话,但我们的作物保护库存现在已经到了上半年末。我们与去年持平。正如查克提到的那样,事实上我们已经有了一个非常强大的7月,我们在7月份继续销售大量的除草剂。

因此,我们现在正在以可比较的方式提取库存。因此,当我们在即将到来的那一年准备2020年时,我们感觉良好进入下半年,我们的作物保护库存与我们希望它们的位置一致。种子库存,当然,我们有一些自己的种子业务,我们将在明年将更高的库存带到明年,因为没有种植的土地。对于我们销售的第三方种子,确实会返回给我们的供应商。所以我们现在正在补充种子。我们正在检查质量,我们正准备迎接明年的赛季。

总的来说,无论是作物保护还是种子,我们都对库存的位置感到满意。最后,再次施肥,这个季节并没有像我们预期的那样完美,但我们做好了对化肥进行去库存的工作。我们在几个领域,例如氨,这个春天只是不允许氨按照我们的预期下降。但是我们现在正在补充肥料,为今年秋天的窗户做准备。

Chuck Magro

And Joel, on your buyback question, so we look at what we’ve done so far since the merger, January 2018, we’ve purchased 11% of the shares outstanding, spending about a $3.7 billion at an average price of just over $51 a share and we’ve been very aggressive. And we’ve communicated that very clearly, I think to our stakeholders and the most recent buyback as we referenced in the prepared remarks, we did the 5% in about four months. And so what I’d tell you right now to your question on what’s next is our capital allocation priorities really haven’t changed. We’ve been very consistent that we want to have a combination of growth and significant returns to shareholders.
And I think we’ve lived to that both of those objectives. We’re seeing some very good opportunities right now in the M&A pipeline. We’ve got some other things we’re looking at as well. But what I’d say right now from a buyback perspective is everything’s on the table. The markets have been quite volatile and we have the balance sheet and the free cash flow to make smart quick decisions to create shareholder value. So that’s how I would answer the question is I’d say right now everything’s on the table.

还有乔尔,关于你的回购问题,所以我们看看自2018年1月合并以来我们迄今为止所做的事情,我们已经购买了11%的已发行股票,花费约37亿美元,平均价格略高于51美元分享,我们一直非常积极。我们已经非常清楚地传达了这一点,我认为对于我们的利益相关者和我们在准备好的评论中引用的最近的回购,我们在大约四个月内做了5%。所以我现在告诉你的关于我们下一步的问题的是我们的资本分配优先事项真的没有改变。我们一直非常一致,我们希望将股东的增长和重大回报结合起来。

而且我认为我们已经实现了这两个目标。我们现在在并购渠道中看到了一些非常好的机会。我们还有其他一些我们正在关注的事情。但是从回购的角度来看,我现在所说的就是一切都摆在桌面上。市场波动很大,我们拥有资产负债表和自由现金流,可以快速做出明智的决策,从而创造股东价值。这就是我回答这个问题的方法,我现在就说现在一切都在桌面上。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自花旗的P.J. Juvekar。 你的生产线现已开放。

P.J。Juvekar

Yes. Hi, good morning. A couple of questions, if your prevent planting acres were in corn, were close to 10 million acres, how did your overall sales in the retail seed sales in the retail go up? Was there pricing? Was the pricing that much better or are you gaining share? And then second question on chemicals, you mentioned that crop chemical inventory for you is flat and maybe, you’re exhibiting really well and your inventories are flat. What do you think and when – where do you think inventory levels are in the channel from the producer to the farmer and are those high compared to sort of five-year average? Thank you.

是。 早上好。 如果你的防止种植面积是玉米,那么几个问题接近1000万英亩,你在零售种子销售中的整体销售额是如何增加的? 有定价吗? 定价是更好还是你获得了份额? 然后关于化学品的第二个问题,你提到你的作物化学品库存是平的,也许,你的展品非常好,你的库存是平的。 您如何看待以及何时 - 您认为从生产者到农民的渠道中的库存水平在哪里?与五年平均水平相比是那么高? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Good morning, P.J. We’ll have Mike answer those questions for you.

早上好,P.J。我们将让迈克为你回答这些问题。

Mike Frank

Hello, P.J. our seed business performed extremely well this year and just like with crop protection, we know that we’ve gained pretty significant share in the marketplace. on the revenue line, as you’ll see in the first half, we’re up about 2% on revenue. When we look at pricing, pricing both in corn and soybeans was pretty flat year-over-year. Replants were up. And so we do, we do know that about 4% of our sales were replants. And so kind of if you net that off, our seed sales are probably down 2% in terms of kind of apples-to-apples. But again, in the market that’s extremely strong performance and you’re seeing that I think as other companies are announcing their earnings and showing significantly lower seed sales than that.
Look, we – again, I can’t comment, because we don’t know what inventories are for our competitors. you asked about farm-gate inventory on crop protection. For the most part, at least what we do is if our customers changed their plans and they don’t need a product, then we restock it and we sell them the product that they need. And so I would say are our customers inventory at the farm-gate are non-existent, because they don’t hold inventories and we serve them in a different way than maybe some other retailers do.

您好,P.J。我们的种子业务今年表现非常好,就像作物保护一样,我们知道我们在市场上获得了相当大的份额。在收入线上,正如您在上半年所看到的那样,我们的收入增长了约2%。当我们考虑定价时,玉米和大豆的价格与去年同期持平。重新植入了。我们这样做,我们知道大约4%的销售额是重新种植的。如果你把它关闭,我们的种子销售额可能会下降2%,就苹果对苹果而言。但同样,在市场表现非常强劲的情况下你会看到我认为其他公司正在宣布他们的收益并显示出比这更低的种子销售额。

看,我们 - 再说一次,我不能发表评论,因为我们不知道哪些库存对我们的竞争对手来说。你问过关于农作物保护的农场库存。在大多数情况下,至少我们所做的是,如果我们的客户改变他们的计划并且他们不需要产品,那么我们重新进货并向他们出售他们需要的产品。所以我想说我们的客户库存是不存在的,因为他们没有库存,我们以不同于其他零售商的方式为他们提供服务。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC. your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自雅各布布特与CIBC。 你的生产线现已开放。

Jacob Bout

Good morning. I had a couple of questions on U.S. retail. I guess first off, market share, what is it currently? How aggressive do you expect to be in tuck-ins for the remainder of the year and what type of multiple are you looking at? And then maybe just to wrap it up, just when you’re thinking about U.S. retail, how are you looking at buying versus actually doing greenfield?

早上好。 我对美国零售业有几个问题。 我想首先,市场份额,目前是什么? 你期望在今年余下的时间里有多咄咄逼人,你会看到什么类型的多重? 然后也许只是把它包起来,就在你考虑美国零售时,你是如何看待购买而不是实际做绿地?

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Jacob. Mike, go ahead.

早上好,雅各布。 迈克,继续吧。

Mike Frank

Yes. Good morning, Jacob. Our market share in the U.S. is definitely ticked up this year. We made some good acquisitions at the start of the year. A couple of large retail multi-branch retail companies in the Midwest, strengthened our position there. But our base business just from a market share standpoint, we think we probably grew in the range of 140 basis points to 160 basis points of market share. And so it’s extremely strong and it really speaks to both the transformational efforts that we’re focused on our digital efforts and just our supply chain capability and our people in the marketplace. So, overall, we’ve talked about our market share being in the 20% range. Look, there’s still some way to go – that goes out 2019 and so at the end of the year, we’ll update that number, but we do believe that we’re gaining market share.
on tuck-ins, we do expect there to be a busy season in the second half of the year. It is typically when things do pick up and our phones are ringing. We’re going to continue to look for high quality assets. And like we did at the beginning of the year, we really liked buying multibranch, retail outlets that fit well with our business. We’re not seeing really a change in multiples. And so depending on the quality of the assets, it’s anywhere from five to seven, is a typical tuck-in multiple. And we would expect that to probably continue to be the range that we’re going to be investing in the future.
And then finally, how do we look at tuck-ins versus greenfields? We’re now operating about 16 new greenfields that we’ve set up in the last 18 months. they’re performing as expected, which is good. We have nine more that are in various states of build right now. And so we are continuing our greenfield investments. That being said, I think, whenever we can acquire an existing business that fits into our footprint either, where we have a gap or where we can consolidate branches, that would be our first preference. When you make an acquisition, you get a customer list, you get sales people. and so you can hit the ground running. And so, we’ll continue to focus primarily on acquisitions and tuck-ins. And then just use our greenfield strategy either to consolidate multiple retail points or to look for open space, where we don’t have an opportunity for tuck-ins.

是。早上好,雅各布。我们今年在美国的市场份额肯定会上升。我们在年初做了一些很好的收购。中西部的几家大型零售多分店零售公司巩固了我们在那里的地位。但我们的基础业务仅从市场份额的角度来看,我们认为我们可能会在140个基点到160个基点的市场份额范围内增长。因此它非常强大,它真正说明了我们专注于数字化努力以及我们的供应链能力和市场人员的转型努力。总的来说,我们已经谈到我们的市场份额在20%的范围内。看,还有一段路可走 - 2019年结束,所以在年底,我们会更新这个数字,但我们确实相信我们正在获得市场份额。

在收获方面,我们确实预计今年下半年会有一个繁忙的赛季。通常当事情发生时,我们的手机响了。我们将继续寻找高质量的资产。就像我们在年初做的那样,我们真的很喜欢购买适合我们业务的多分支零售店。我们看不到真正的倍数变化。因此,根据资产的质量,它可以在五到七之间,是一个典型的折叠倍数。而且我们预计这可能会继续成为我们未来投资的范围。

最后,我们如何看待与绿地相关的褶皱?我们现在正在运营我们在过去18个月内建立的大约16个新绿地。他们按预期表现,这很好。我们现在还有九个处于各种建造状态。因此,我们将继续进行绿地投资。话虽这么说,我认为,每当我们能够获得适合我们足迹的现有业务时,我们有差距或我们可以合并分支机构,那将是我们的首选。当您进行收购时,您将获得一份客户名单,您将获得销售人员。所以你可以开始跑步了。因此,我们将继续主要关注收购和收购。然后使用我们的绿地战略来巩固多个零售点或寻找开放空间,我们没有机会进行折叠。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Duffy Fischer with Barclays. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Duffy Fischer和Barclays。 你的生产线现已开放。

Duffy Fischer

Yes. Good morning. A couple of questions, first just your outlook for Latin America, kind of however you want to define it, how much you think corn, soy acres will be up down there and kind of inputs per acre. Just I mean, how good could Latin America be this fall? Second, the retail acquisitions you’ve done so far if you assume that Ruralco closes this year, how much incremental EBITDAs at next year? And then the last one on the digital platform, will you be able to start to price for that next year do you think? Or is it still kind of in the penetration phase, where we’re more than a year away from pricing for it?

是。 早上好。 有几个问题,首先只是你对拉丁美洲的看法,你想要定义它的种类,你认为玉米的数量,大豆种植面积将会增加,以及每英亩的投入量。 我的意思是,今年秋天拉丁美洲有多好? 第二,如果你假设今年关闭了Ruralco,那么你到目前为止已完成的零售收购,明年增加多少EBITDA? 然后是数字平台上的最后一个,您认为明年可以开始定价吗? 或者它仍然处于渗透阶段,我们距它的定价还有一年多的时间吗?

Chuck Magro

Okay. Duffy, so we’ll have Jason Newton just to talk a little bit about what we’re seeing in Latin America and then we’ll move over to the retail questions.

好的。 Duffy,所以我们让Jason Newton谈谈我们在拉丁美洲看到的东西,然后我们将转向零售问题。

杰森牛顿

Yes. Good morning, Duffy. Just in terms of Brazilian acres that we expect to be planted, I guess in our fall and next spring. I think if you look at where soybean prices are currently in Brazil, actually, they aren’t – they definitely are weaker year-over-year and in some sense falling that the global fundamentals in that market. And so we don’t – we don’t see acreage increasing probably, about the same as it did a year ago. So, in the range of 1% to 2% year-over-year. And as we look toward corn, I think a lot rides on the uncertainty with respect to the U.S. production. And so there definitely is upside in Brazilian corn planting for the safrinha crop depending on what happens from a U.S. perspective. And the U.S. acreage and yield turnout has sort of the base case of the scenarios project, I think there is more upside and soybean are in corn acreage in the safrinha crop in Brazil. As a result, we expect strong nutrient demand as we move into later this year and into the spring of planting period.

是。早上好,达菲。就我们期望种植的巴西种植面积而言,我想在秋季和明年春季。我想如果你看看目前巴西的大豆价格在哪里,实际上,它们并非如此 - 它们肯定会逐年减弱,从某种意义上来说,这个市场的全球基本面也会下降。所以我们不这样做 - 我们看不到种植面积可能增加,与一年前相同。因此,在1%至2%的范围内同比增长。当我们关注玉米时,我认为很多因为美国生产的不确定性而存在。因此,根据从美国的角度来看,肯尼亚种植的巴西玉米种植肯定会有上涨空间。美国的种植面积和产量也是情景项目的基本情况,我认为在巴西的safrinha作物中有更多的上涨和大豆种植玉米种植面积。因此,我们预计今年晚些时候进入种植期春季的营养需求将会强劲。

Chuck Magro

And then just on Ruralco, so we’re still working through the antitrust process and we do still expect the deal to close in the late third quarter. And then I’ll just turn it over to Mike just to talk about sort of what we could expect to see from an earnings perspective, let’s say for 2020, not really the second half of this year. And then your last question, Duffy. Go ahead, Mike.

然后就在Ruralco,我们仍在努力完成反垄断程序,我们仍然预计该交易将在第三季度末完成。 然后我会把它转交给迈克,只是为了谈谈从盈利角度看我们可以期待看到的东西,比如说2020年,而不是真正的今年下半年。 然后是你的最后一个问题,达菲。 来吧,迈克。

Mike Frank

Yes. good morning, Duffy. So, in terms of, obviously, we’re – as Chuck said, we’re expecting to close ruralco late third quarter of this year. And so we’ll get a bit of a sub-year with ruralco this year as well as with aftergrowth. So, if you look at 2020, with those two businesses and compared to say 2018, where we didn’t have any part of their business, we would expect an EBIDTA lift of about $100 million between those two businesses. And so they’re both expected to contribute significantly to our 2020 earnings.
On digital, so with corn prices going up, we do expect the digital services that we provide our customers today that we do largely charge for like variable rates planting prescriptions and variable rate fertilizer prescriptions. That part of our business continues to grow. So, you’ll see that in our services line. And so we do expect that to grow. our large focus right now is also getting our customers and our employees engaging in our digital tools and we’re off to a really solid start in 2019.
As you may know, we launched our customer portal about a year ago. We’ve got close to 60% of our customers now signed up and engaging with us on the portal. And we turned on the ability at the beginning of this year for our employees and our customers to use the portal to order – to put orders online directly to create efficiency and more price transparency and we’re getting great feedback on the platform and every month and every week, in fact, we see the adoption of those tools go up. And so we’re really pleased with where we’re at on our digital journey. there’s obviously a lot still ahead of us, but the tools we’re putting in the marketplace are hitting the mark right now.

是。早安,达菲。所以,显然,就像Chuck所说的那样,我们预计将在今年第三季度末关闭ruralco。因此,今年我们将与乡村公司以及后续增长相提并论。因此,如果你看看2020年这两家企业与2018年相比,我们没有任何业务,我们预计这两家企业的EBIDTA将增加约1亿美元。因此,他们都有望为我们的2020年收入做出重大贡献。

在数字方面,随着玉米价格的上涨,我们确实希望我们今天为客户提供的数字服务主要是收取可变费率的种植处方和可变肥料处方。我们业务的这一部分继续增长。所以,你会在我们的服务热线中看到这一点。所以我们确实希望这种增长。我们现在的重点是让我们的客户和员工参与我们的数字工具,我们在2019年开始了一个非常可靠的开端。

如您所知,我们大约一年前推出了客户门户网站。我们有近60%的客户现已注册并在门户网站上与我们互动。我们在今年年初启用了我们的员工和客户使用门户订购的能力 - 直接在线下订单以提高效率和更高的价格透明度我们在平台和每个月都获得了很好的反馈事实上,我们每周都会看到这些工具的采用率上升。因此,我们非常满意我们的数字化旅程。显然还有很多事情要摆在我们面前,但我们现在投入市场的工具正在崭露头角。

理查德唐尼

And operator, it’s Richard Downey, can I ask all the participants to limit yourself to one question? Thanks.

运营商,理查德唐尼,我可以要求所有参与者将自己限制在一个问题吗? 谢谢。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from John Roberts with UBS. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自瑞银的约翰罗伯茨。 你的生产线现已开放。

John Roberts

Thank you. How do you think about China hog feverish, you do your planning for the next few quarters in next year?

谢谢。 您如何看待中国猪的狂热,您明年的未来几个季度的规划是什么?

Chuck Magro

Yes, John. Jason will give you sort of our latest thinking and then I’ll give you a bit of color commentary. Go ahead, Jason.

是的,约翰。 杰森会给你一些我们最新的想法,然后我会给你一些颜色评论。 来吧,杰森。

杰森牛顿

Hey, good morning, John. As we look at the African swine fever, there really hasn’t been a lot of updates in terms of what’s happening there compared to what we’ve talked about in quarter and on Investor Day. I mean it’s a significant issue for African swine numbers and the numbers are anywhere from 20% to 40% and even above in terms of the loss of the numbers in the swine herd. Now, it seems as you look at the actual impact in terms of global grains, but to date it’s been a relatively muted. And actually, if you look at the USDA’s current forecast for 2019 both global feed demand, and if you look at global meal demand are both projected to be at above trend levels even with flat to lower demand in China. So, they’re expecting to see a rebound in feed demand in other markets globally.
And if you look at livestock prices, we did see a significant increase in livestock prices earlier in the year as the news of the problem and the fears about the problem increased and those have come back down also. So, there does seem to be a bit of a delayed impact and what’s happening in China. A part of that is that there really is a lot of uncertainty about how much loss of a herd size there has been. Some is that the existing herds both within China and throughout the world are growing to higher weights and there’s increased supplies coming out of frozen stocks and so on that is limiting the supply tightness.
So, on a short-term basis, we definitely haven’t seen some of the impacts that would have been feared even a few months ago. And I think if we look longer-term, we don’t expect that global meat consumption trends will change. And so if you look on a global basis, we expect that meat consumption will continue to rise in the developing world and returned to more normal levels in China and ultimately that’s what drives global feed consumption in terms of crop input demand globally.

嘿,早上好,约翰。在我们看看非洲猪瘟的情况时,与我们在季度和投资者日所讨论的情况相比,在那里发生的事情确实没有太多更新。我的意思是这对非洲猪的数量来说是一个重要的问题,而且数量在20%到40%之间,甚至在猪群数量的损失方面也是如此。现在,看起来你看全球谷物的实际影响,但到目前为止它是相对平静的。实际上,如果你看看美国农业部目前对2019年全球饲料需求的预测,如果你看一下全球膳食需求,即使中国需求持平或下降,预计也会高于趋势水平。因此,他们预计全球其他市场的饲料需求将出现反弹。

如果你看一下牲畜价格,我们确实看到今年早些时候牲畜价格大幅上涨,因为问题的消息和对这个问题的担忧增加了,而且这些问题也回落了。因此,似乎确实存在一些延迟影响以及中国正在发生的事情。其中一部分原因是关于牧群规模的损失确实存在很大的不确定性。一些是中国和全世界现有的畜群正在增长到更高的权重,冷冻库存的供应量增加等等,这限制了供应紧张。

因此,从短期来看,我们肯定没有看到几个月前可能会受到的一些影响。我认为,如果我们看起来更长远,我们预计全球肉类消费趋势不会改变。因此,如果从全球角度来看,我们预计发展中国家的肉类消费将继续增加,并在中国恢复到更正常的水平,最终这将推动全球作物投入需求对全球饲料消费的影响。

Chuck Magro

Yes. John, from my perspective, the market’s behaving the way it should. Protein prices are increasing and other markets are compensating. So, we’re not – we’re not factoring or forecasting a significant reduction in global grains and oil seeds in there for crop inputs.

是。 约翰,从我的角度来看,市场表现应该如此。 蛋白质价格上涨,其他市场正在补偿。 所以,我们不是 - 我们没有考虑或预测作物投入的全球谷物和油籽的显着减少。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自瑞士信贷的Christopher Parkinson。 你的生产线现已开放。

克里斯托弗帕金森

Great, thank you. Can you just talk a little bit more about your outlook for ammonia from both an ag perspective as well as industrial? Just you have any strong views on the U.S. under Caribbean market developments for the second half of 2020; just any comments on that operates would be appreciated. Thank you very much.

太好了谢谢。 您是否可以从农业和工业角度谈谈您对氨的前景? 你对2020年下半年加勒比市场的发展情况对美国有任何强烈的看法; 对此操作的任何评论都将不胜感激。 非常感谢你。

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Chris. Raef Sully can answer your question.

克里斯,早上好。 Raef Sully可以回答你的问题。

Raef Sully

Yes. look, I mean, I’m not sure, I’ve got too much color to add, what I mentioned previously. Again, just starting with global perspective, merchant available ammonia and the supply of that has been gradually decreasing compared to where it was three to four years ago. The global market is growing at 2 to 2.5 million tons a year. So, I think we’re just seeing 10 per roll from 215 in August. obviously, we’re waiting to see what happens next month. But there should be a tightening globally in ammonia. Urea continues to be tight to globally, again, when you look at the projects that we’re in the market for additional urea and ammonia three to five years ago. We just don’t see that overhang today. There’s much less supply coming on and so again, that the market is tightening.

是。 看,我的意思是,我不确定,我有太多的颜色要添加,我之前提到的。 同样,从全球视角开始,与三到四年前相比,商家可用氨和其供应量逐渐减少。 全球市场每年增长200万至250万吨。 所以,我认为我们只看到8月份每卷215张。 显然,我们正等着看下个月会发生什么。 但全球氨应该有所收紧。 当你看到我们三到五年前在市场上增加尿素和氨的项目时,尿素继续在全球范围内变得紧张。 我们今天看不到这种悬念。 供应量大大减少,市场也在紧缩。

Chuck Magro

Yes, Chris. from my perspective, the midterm here and now, I think Raef covered it very well, but long-term, we’re constructive on nitrogen. Most of the major global supply now is in the market. The demand continues to grow at historical demand growth rates and we think that there’s going to be a significant tightening over the next couple of years. And so that’s why when you look at what we’re doing from an allocation of capital perspective, we have some very high return expansion; the bottleneck type projects are very small. They’re in multiple plants. So, the risk to do this for us is quite low, but we also think that that’s the best way to add low risk incremental tons into the market in the next two to three years.
Greenfield economics still don’t make any sense with today’s prices. So, we think that what will happen is that the market will continue to tighten over the next couple of years. And we’re the third largest nitrogen producer in the world. So that’s beneficial for us. And we have a third of our gas on AIKO gas and a third of our gas on NYMEX gas in the U.S. So, I think the outlook for us is pretty healthy.

是的,克里斯。从我的角度来看,这里和现在的中期,我认为Raef很好地覆盖了它,但从长远来看,我们对氮的建设性。目前全球主要的大部分供应都在市场上。需求继续以历史需求增长率增长,我们认为未来几年将会出现明显的紧缩政策。因此,当您从资本分配的角度看待我们正在做的事情时,我们会有一些非常高的回报扩张;瓶颈类型项目非常小。他们在多个工厂。因此,为我们做这件事的风险很低,但我们也认为这是在未来两到三年内将低风险增量吨增加到市场的最佳方式。

对于今天的价格,绿地经济学仍然没有任何意义。因此,我们认为将会发生的事情是未来几年市场将继续收紧。我们是世界上第三大氮气生产国。这对我们有益。我们拥有AIKO天然气的三分之一的天然气和美国NYMEX天然气的三分之一天然气因此,我认为我们的前景非常健康。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs Group. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Adam Samuelson与Goldman Sachs Group。 你的生产线现已开放。

亚当萨缪尔森

Yes. Thanks. Good morning everyone. Questions in Retail, just trying to get a little bit more color around the gross margin kind of drivers in the quarter, I guess specifically in crop protection and seed, just trying to disaggregate a little bit, just market pressures from just acres down versus input costs versus mix on the proprietary product side. And then just within Retail also, just a little any color on the growth in operating expenses relative to gross profit in the quarter or in the first half and I presume there’s some M&A that creates noise in that calculation, is there any color on how that performs? Thank you.

是。 谢谢。 大家,早安。 零售方面的问题,只是试图在本季度的毛利率类型的驱动器上获得更多的颜色,我想特别是在作物保护和种子方面,只是试图分解一点,只是市场压力从英亩下降与输入 专有产品方面的成本与混合。 此外,就零售业而言,与季度或上半年的毛利相比,营业费用的增长只有一点颜色,我认为在该计算中存在一些产生噪音的并购,是否有任何颜色如何 施行? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Adam. Yes, Mike, go ahead.

亚当,早上好。 是的,迈克,继续吧。

Mike Frank

Sure. Hello, Adam. So, you can see our gross profit is down on a percent basis year-over-year and it was an extremely competitive marketplace. As we talked earlier, the retail channel broadly carried a lot of inventory into 2019, and when the market didn’t develop, Q1 was quiet, because it was wet in Q2 continue to be quiet, because it was so wet and then acres didn’t get process. there was extreme competition in the marketplace. And so when customers were buying, the prices got beat up and it was more competitive. And so we saw that in our margins.
The second impact from a margin standpoint from our business is that in the Midwest, where we do a lot of custom application that was the market that was most impacted by the delay and the unplanted acres. And when we do custom application not only do we charge for custom application, but we also see higher margins. And so just from a mixed standpoint, a mix of custom application acres that also had a material impact on our margins in the first half. Now again, as we look to the second half of the year and July specifically, we’re seeing margins rebound back to kind of historical norms. And so we do believe it was a seasonal impact and that will get back to normalized margins going forward. And really kind of similar in seed, when there’s – the entire retail channel is prepared to sell 90 or 91 million acres of corn seed and same for soybeans and you drop off kind of 11 million acres of market. The market gets more competitive as everyone’s trying to get rid of their inventory. And so that was the same thing that we saw in the seed business. Again, overall, we’re – we think we did a good job of not only maintaining our business, but growing share, but margins were challenging.
From an OpEx standpoint, look, when we look at year-over-year increase obviously, wages and then specific investments in digital and supply chain transformation, our core costs are up about $7 million. Other increases in costs, as you said, is really coming from things like the M&A and so there was about $50 million of increased costs coming into this year, just from an M&A standpoint of tuck-ins and other businesses that we acquired in the last 12 months.

当然。你好,亚当。因此,您可以看到我们的毛利润同比下降百分比,这是一个极具竞争力的市场。正如我们之前谈到的那样,零售渠道在2019年广泛占据了大量库存,当市场没有发展时,Q1很安静,因为它在第二季度潮湿,继续保持平静,因为它是如此潮湿,然后是亩得到过程。市场上存在着极端的竞争。因此,当顾客购买时,价格上涨,而且更具竞争力。所以我们在边缘看到了这一点。

从我们业务的边际角度来看,第二个影响是在中西部地区,我们做了大量的定制应用,这是受延迟和未种植面积影响最大的市场。当我们进行自定义应用程序时,我们不仅要为自定义应用程序收费,而且还会看到更高的利润率。因此,从混合的角度来看,混合的定制应用领域也对上半年的利润率产生了重大影响。现在再次,当我们看到今年下半年和7月份时,我们看到利润率反弹回到历史规范。因此,我们确实认为这是一个季节性影响,并将恢复到正常化的利润率。在种子方面真的有点类似 - 当时有 - 整个零售渠道准备出售90或9100万英亩的玉米种子和大豆相同的产品,你可以从1100万英亩的市场中脱颖而出。随着每个人都试图摆脱他们的库存,市场变得更具竞争力。因此,这与我们在种子业务中看到的情况相同。总的来说,我们认为 - 我们认为我们不仅在维持业务方面做得很好,而且在增加份额方面做得很好,但利润率却很大。

从运营支出的角度来看,当我们看到同比增长明显,工资,然后是数字和供应链转型的具体投资时,我们的核心成本增加了大约700万美元。正如你所说,成本的其他增长实际上来自并购等因素,因此今年增加的成本约为5000万美元,仅仅是因为我们在上一次获得的收入和其他业务的并购立场。 12个月。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自文森特安德鲁斯与摩根士丹利。 你的生产线现已开放。

文森特安德鲁斯

Thank you and good morning everyone. Just looking at your presentation slide, Slide 16 with the Corn S&D. I’m just – you mid-take is for 7% stocks to your high take of 10%, you’re looking into 3%, right? And if I look back at the bar chart, the last time, we had 7% corn was almost $7 and December 2020, right now think about 415. So, why do you think that the commodity markets haven’t responded? The corn market hasn’t responded faster to what’s happening in the ground. It’s already the end of July. Where do you think the market’s waiting to see if we’re really headed to 7% stocks to you?

谢谢大家早上好。 只需看看你的演示幻灯片,幻灯片16与玉米S&D。 我只是 - 你的中途收购是7%的股票到10%的高位,你看3%,对吧? 如果我回顾条形图,最后一次,我们有7%的玉米价格接近7美元和2020年12月,现在考虑415.所以,为什么你认为商品市场没有回应? 玉米市场对地面发生的事情没有更快的反应。 已经是七月底了。 您认为市场在哪里等待我们真正转向7%的股票?

Chuck Magro

Thanks, Vincent for the question. Jason Newton can answer it.

谢谢,文森特的问题。 杰森牛顿可以回答它。

杰森牛顿

Yes. Hi, Vincent. It’s a great question. And in our opinion, the market today is trading an S&D probably more like the high scenario that we showed in the slide deck. And then there is a lot of uncertainty with respect to both planted and harvested acres as well as yield. And so I think, I think there is a wide range of scenarios. If you look back to 2012, 2013 when we had 7% stocks we used that was with an extreme amount of demand rationing. And so that’s probably more like our low case scenario than the mid case. And we are in a bit of a different world at this point. And we were in 2012, 2013 with a larger production base in Brazil. At that time, you had large production responses from both Brazil and Ukraine and that’s stuck around to some extent.
And so it’s reduced the importance to some extent of the U.S. on its own, but I think if you look in any of the scenarios, we’d expect to see a significant decrease in corn adding stocks and stocks to use ratio. And we see that today with where corn prices are, which are in the range of $0.40 per bushel above where they were a year ago and we saw a significantly higher prices even just a month ago. And so I think from a corn supply and demand standpoint, we’re tighter and prices are higher than they were at this point a year ago and supportive of our acreage outlook for next year.

是。嗨,文森特。这是一个很好的问题。而在我们看来,今天的市场交易的S&D可能更像是我们在幻灯片中展示的高情景。然后,种植和收获的种植面积和产量都存在很大的不确定性。所以我认为,我认为有各种各样的场景。如果你回顾2012年,2013年,当我们有7%的股票时,我们使用了大量的需求配给量。所以这可能更像是我们的案例低于案例。在这一点上,我们处于一个不同的世界。我们在2012年,2013年在巴西拥有更大的生产基地。当时,你有来自巴西和乌克兰的大量生产响应,并且在一定程度上存在。

因此,它在某种程度上降低了美国的重要性,但我认为,如果你看一下任何一种情景,我们预计玉米会增加库存和库存使用比例。我们今天看到的是玉米价格在哪里,比一年前高出每蒲式耳0.40美元,而且即使在一个月之前我们也看到了明显更高的价格。因此,从玉米供需角度来看,我们认为,我们的价格会比一年前的水平更高,并且支撑着我们明年的种植面积。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Don Carson with Susquehanna Financial. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Don Carson和Susquehanna Financial。 你的生产线现已开放。

Don Carson

Thank you. Chuck, a question for you on phosphate. On your commentary, you expressed some reservations about the phosphate outlook just due to increased supply from the Middle East and North Africa, higher China exports. So, is this just a near-term weakness that you see or what’s your longer-term view and phosphates are relatively small business for you given this outlook, any thoughts as to perhaps exiting that business from a wholesale standpoint?

谢谢。 查克,关于磷酸盐的问题。 在您的评论中,您对磷酸盐前景表示了一些保留意见,原因是中东和北非的供应增加,中国出口增加。 那么,这看起来只是近期的弱点,或者你的长期观点和磷酸盐对于你来说是一个相对较小的业务,考虑到这种前景,是否有任何关于从批发的角度退出该业务的想法?

Chuck Magro

Well, good morning, Don. So, our view is that, right now, there is probably more pressure on the phosphate business than the other businesses in entities short-term in fact; the demand growth for phosphate globally looks pretty good. When you get a little longer term though, we are still concerned about some of the new supply that is still going to come into the market from the low cost global players. So that’s a little bit of a different from a fundamental perspective than what we have in nitrogen and potash, where nitrogen is behind us, potash is right, most of it is behind us now, and phosphate, there’s still more to come. So, the longer term S&D for phosphate I think is a little bit more concerning for us when we look at the outlook.
So, to answer your second question, in terms of the strategic direction for our phosphate business, we’ve made some very good moves as part of the merger. We’ve went from three facilities down to two. We’ve expanded some production in those two and they’re very strong regional players with a good mix of ag phosphate and industrial phosphate. So, we are diversified and consolidated when it comes to the market, but also diversified from the product slate. And now, what we’re focused on is just finalizing the synergy delivery. Remember that at the end of the first quarter, we were at about 620 million of synergies and we started a little bit to go, because we needed to bring up the ammonium sulfate business in Canada. So that’s what the phosphate business team and what the organization is focused on.
Longer-term, we’ll have to see; right now, the business is making a modest return. And I think it fits well with our network and we are using some of the ag tons in our retail business. But over time, we’ll have to kind of assess the business. But right now, we’re very pleased with actually the synergies that we have delivered, because of the merger has made the business at least now positive from a contribution of a margin perspective.

恩,早上好,唐。因此,我们认为,目前,磷酸盐业务的压力可能比短期实体的其他业务更大;全球磷酸盐需求增长看起来相当不错。但是当你获得更长期的时间时,我们仍然担心一些新的供应仍将从低成本的全球参与者进入市场。从基本的角度来看,这与我们在氮和钾肥中的含义有所不同,氮在我们身后,钾肥是正确的,大部分都在我们身后,磷酸盐,还有更多的未来。因此,当我们看到前景时,我认为磷酸盐的较长期S&D对我们来说更为关注。

所以,为了回答你的第二个问题,就磷酸盐业务的战略方向而言,我们已经做了一些非常好的举措,作为合并的一部分。我们从三个设施下降到两个。我们扩大了这两个产量,他们是非常强大的区域参与者,混合了磷酸钙和工业磷酸盐。因此,我们在市场上多元化和整合,但也从产品板块多元化。而现在,我们所关注的只是最终确定协同效应。请记住,在第一季度末,我们达到了大约6.2亿的协同效应,我们开始了一点点,因为我们需要在加拿大开展硫酸铵业务。这就是磷酸盐业务团队和组织关注的重点。

从长远来看,我们必须看到;目前,该公司正在做出适度的回报。我认为它非常适合我们的网络,我们正在使用零售业务中的一些产品。但随着时间的推移,我们将不得不评估业务。但是现在,我们对实际上我们所提供的协同效应感到非常满意,因为合并使得业务至少现在从利润率的角度来看是积极的。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Mark Connelly with Stephens. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Mark Connelly和Stephens。 你的生产线现已开放。

Mark Connelly

Thanks. Chuck, I was hoping you could just bring us up to date on private label where you see the growth from here? Where you have meaningful gaps in your portfolio? And how much of your private label is geared towards real crops?

谢谢。 Chuck,我希望你能把我们带到最新的自有品牌,你可以看到这里的增长吗? 您的投资组合中存在哪些有意义的差距? 您的私人品牌有多少面向真正的作物?

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Mark. Mike can answer that question for you.

马克,早上好。 迈克可以为你回答这个问题。

Mike Frank

Mark, good morning. So, as you can see in our mix this year, we were focused on selling what we had an inventory. And so we changed the trend line a little bit, where we really de-inventoried our branded products and that did have an impact on our mix of proprietary. We also expect that to straighten out going forward, because we really do like our proprietary products business. It adds value to our customers and obviously, it creates margins for ourselves.
And so we expect that business to continue to have a long runway of growth. From an active ingredient standpoint, we don’t have a lot of holes in our portfolio. And so we’re not looking to add a number of new products from our crop protection standpoint, but we continue to look for other areas to grow that business, seed treatments, microbials; in that part of our business, we do see long-term growth in our proprietary products business. And so that’s kind of where we’re focused, Mark, we don’t really look at it as a private label business. This is a value added business, where we’re bringing unique products to our customers.

马克,早上好。因此,正如您今年在我们的组合中所看到的,我们专注于销售我们的库存。因此,我们稍微改变了趋势线,我们真正去除了我们的品牌产品,这确实对我们的专有产品组合产生了影响。我们也期望能够理顺未来,因为我们确实喜欢我们的专有产品业务。它为我们的客户增加了价值,显然,它为我们自己创造了利润。

因此,我们预计该业务将继续保持长期增长。从有效成分的角度来看,我们的产品组合中没有太多漏洞。因此,我们不打算从我们的作物保护角度添加一些新产品,但我们继续寻找其他领域来发展这项业务,种子处理,微生物;在我们业务的这一部分,我们确实看到了我们的专有产品业务的长期增长。所以这就是我们关注的重点,马克,我们并不把它看作是一家私营品牌企业。这是一项增值业务,我们将为客户提供独特的产品。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Jonas Oxgaard with Bernstein. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Jonas Oxgaard和伯恩斯坦。 你的生产线现已开放。

Jonas Oxgaard

Hi, good morning, guys. I’ve been trying to wrap my head surrounding your Brazil retail strategy and I’m a little bit of a loss. My understanding of Brazil is that it’s really a large inland market, but out any retail presence and then a coastal market with a lot of retail, but with zero profitability. And so neither of those two things to fit with your U.S. retail strategy, can you expand little bit on what you’re trying to do in Brazil? And how that fits with the rest of you?

嗨,早上好,伙计们。 我一直在试图围绕你的巴西零售战略,我有点不知所措。 我对巴西的理解是,它确实是一个巨大的内陆市场,但是在任何零售业务,然后是一个有大量零售的沿海市场,但盈利能力为零。 所以这两件事都不适合你的美国零售战略,你能否在巴西尝试做些什么? 那怎么和你们其他人相符呢?

Chuck Magro

Yes. Good morning. I’ll take the question and Mike can add any comments after. Certainly, if you look at Brazilian agriculture and even in this first half of the year, we would have loved to have a bigger retail business in Brazil. So, it does help from a diversification of our business and our strategy. But we’ve been in the Brazilian market now since 2012 and we’ve been operating what I would consider to be Nutrien’s full service Retail business in the south with great success. And by that, I mean we’ve grown our sales year-in and year-out and our margins are almost equivalent to the United States. So, we believe that our offering would be unique as you mentioned, but value enhancing for both Brazilian farmers and for Nutrien’s shareholders.
And so that is really the overall goal is to bring something different. Our Retail business would be different in Brazil, but we think there’s a lot of value that can be added. And our plan now is to prudently grow our retail footprint through a series of acquisitions and greenfield builds, which we have several under construction now to enter the market. because the market we want to be cautious and we want to make sure we get this right. But certainly what we’ve seen with the pilot program as I will call it, since 2012, is that there is a lot of value creation potential with a full service offering of not just fertilizer chemistry and seed, but agronomic knowledge and high technology. Mike, anything to offer?

是。早上好。我会接受这个问题,Mike可以在之后添加任何评论。当然,如果你看看巴西的农业,甚至在今年上半年,我们本来希望在巴西拥有更大的零售业务。因此,它确实有助于我们的业务和战略的多样化。但我们自2012年以来一直在巴西市场,我们一直在运营我认为是南方的Nutrien全方位服务零售业务并取得巨大成功。就此而言,我的意思是我们的销售额逐年增长,而且我们的利润几乎相当于美国。因此,我们相信我们的产品将是您提到的独特产品,但对巴西农民和Nutrien股东的价值提升。

所以这真的是总体目标是带来不同的东西。我们在巴西的零售业务会有所不同,但我们认为可以添加很多价值。我们现在的计划是通过一系列收购和绿地建设来谨慎地增加我们的零售足迹,我们现在有几个正在建设中以进入市场。因为市场我们要谨慎,我们希望确保我们做到这一点。但是,自2012年以来,我们在试验计划中所看到的当然是我们所称的试点计划,即提供全面的服务,不仅包括化肥化学和种子,还包括农学知识和高科技,因此具有很大的价值创造潜力。迈克,有什么可以提供的?

Mike Frank

Yes. A couple things, so Jonas, to your point, we’re not looking to copy what’s already happening in Brazil. If you think about it from a farmers’ point of view, they got somebody calling on them to sell them fertilizer, somebody else calling on them to sell them seed, somebody else calling on them to sell them crop protection products. And even within crop protection, there’s a Bayer channel, and there’s a Syngenta channel, and there’s a BSF channel. What we’ve done is we’re bringing full acre solutions to the growers and that’s our model that we’re bringing to Brazil. We’ve been successful with that model in every one of the other markets that we operate in.
And as Chuck said in the pilot that we’ve been running in Brazil for the last six years, six, seven years, we’ve been successful with it. And so we’re looking to bring full service, full acre solutions, where we can serve as customers both from a fertilizer, seed and a crop protection standpoint and really serve them what they need on their farm to maximize yields and to minimize risks. And so that’s our model and that’s what we’re building right now in Brazil.

是。有几件事,乔纳斯,你的观点,我们不打算复制巴西已经发生的事情。如果你从农民的角度考虑它,他们就会有人要求他们卖肥料,有人要求他们卖掉他们的种子,有人要求他们卖掉他们的作物保护产品。甚至在作物保护范围内,还有一个拜耳频道,还有一个先正达频道,还有一个BSF频道。我们所做的就是为种植者提供全面的解决方案,这就是我们为巴西带来的模式。我们在我们经营的其他每个市场都成功地使用了该模型。

正如查克在飞行员中所说,过去六年,六年,七年,我们一直在巴西开展业务,我们已经取得了成功。因此,我们希望提供全方位服务,全面的解决方案,我们可以从肥料,种子和作物保护的角度为客户提供服务,并真正为他们提供农场所需的产品,以最大限度地提高产量并最大限度地降低风险。这就是我们的模式,而这正是我们现在正在巴西建设的。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Michael Piken with Cleveland Research. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Michael Piken和Cleveland Research。 你的生产线现已开放。

Michael Piken

Yes. Good morning. I just wanted to talk a little bit more about kind of the global cost curve for nitrogen and what type of impact you might think that, that’ll have in terms of where prices can go. And then secondarily, some of the nitrogen or urea plants down in China, you have a chart in your slide deck on Page 20 that shows some of the capacity closures like how much of the capacity closers could come back online theoretically?

是。 早上好。 我只是想谈谈氮气的全球成本曲线的类型,以及您可能认为的影响类型,这将具有价格走向的地方。 其次,在中国的一些氮气或尿素工厂,你在第20页的幻灯片中有一张图表,显示了一些容量关闭,例如理论上有多少容量关闭器可以重新上线?

Chuck Magro

Good morning, Michael. Jason Newton can answer your question.

迈克尔,早上好。 杰森牛顿可以回答你的问题。

杰森牛顿

Good morning, Michael. Yes, obviously, the evolution of the cost curve in nitrogen in 2019 has been negative for prices. especially in Europe, the hub based prices are down significantly from where they were a year ago. And that’s pressured, particularly ammonia UAN prices, but also urea, but for urea, you mentioned that in the second part of your question. I mean, if you look at Chinese costs year-over-year, they’re down. But putting marginally – but if you look at prices both in China and the Rest of the World, their op and so the profitability levels have increased in China and production levels have stayed higher as a result. And that’s part of the reason why they’ve had more supply to increase exports. And then why we increased our range of exports for Chinese urea in the second part of the year.
Second part of your question on whether they can bring these plants back on stream, we really haven’t seen that yet. And I think a lot of the plants were shut down in not great condition and require significant investment in environmental controls in order to start back up that as well as additional investment, because of the condition that they’re shut down and for the last period of time before their shutdown, they were really run without any maintenance. And so these plants require investments. And while the plants today are making money at current levels and our operating rates have increased with the existing production base.
We don’t think there’s enough there is enough spare to justify investments in plants at this time. And really, we’ve seen that if you look at where production rates are, over the past couple of years as they really peaked out at similar levels in 2019 as they did in 2018, and just – and just held higher levels for longer periods of time.

迈克尔,早上好。是的,显然,2019年氮气成本曲线的演变对价格是负面的。特别是在欧洲,基于枢纽的价格与一年前相比大幅下降。这是压力,特别是氨UAN价格,还有尿素,但对于尿素,你在问题的第二部分提到了这一点。我的意思是,如果你看一年中国的成本,它们就会下降。但略微下调 - 但如果你看一下中国和世界其他地区的价格,他们的运营等盈利水平在中国有所增加,因此生产水平保持较高水平。这也是为什么他们有更多的供应增加出口的部分原因。那么为什么我们在今年下半年增加了中国尿素的出口范围。

关于他们是否可以将这些植物重新投入使用的问题的第二部分,我们还没有看到。而且我认为很多工厂都处于关闭状态不佳的状态,需要在环境控制方面进行大量投资,以便开始备份以及额外的投资,因为它们会被关闭并在最后一段时间内关闭在他们关机前的时间,他们真的没有任何维护。所以这些工厂需要投资。虽然今天的工厂正在以目前的水平赚钱,但我们的开工率随着现有的生产基础而增加。

我们认为现在没有足够的空余来证明工厂投资的合理性。事实上,我们已经看到,如果你看一下生产率在哪里,过去几年,因为它们在2019年真正达到与2018年相似的水平,而且只是 - 而且只是在更长的时期内保持更高的水平时间

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Steven Byrne with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Steven Byrne和美国银行。 你的生产线现已开放。

Steven Byrne

Yes. Thank you. Buyer indicated this morning that that came to beans out there, a little more than half of the soybean market in the U.S. Can you just give us an update on what you’re seeing in terms of dicamba drift? What kind of a liability is that for you and it doesn’t appear that you experienced the same pricing pressure that they did?

是。 谢谢。 买家今天早上表示那里的豆子已经到了那里,比美国大豆市场的一半多一点。你能告诉我们你所看到的麦草畏漂移的最新情况吗? 对您而言,这是一种什么样的责任?您似乎没有遇到与他们相同的定价压力?

Chuck Magro

Good Morning, Steve. Mike Frank, go ahead.

早安,史蒂夫。 迈克弗兰克,继续吧。

Mike Frank

Yes. Good Morning, Steve. The Xtend soybean technology, what also represents about half of our mix? Probably, we’re maybe a little bit more than half. So, it’s a big part of our soybean sales. Look, as I said, it was a very competitive marketplace this year. And so I haven’t seen what they reported, but prices were under pressure, but again, we believe we performed very strong in that challenging market. In terms of the stewardship with dicamba to apply over Xtend soybeans; it’s a very important issue. Our custom applicators are very well trained. We make sure that they know exactly what to do. We record the wind. We look for inversions and we make sure that when we’re applying dicamba over the top of Xtend soybeans that the product is hitting the intended target. And so we haven’t seen an issue with that. From a weed control standpoint, dicamba is doing a very good job of controlling the weeds that they’re talking about is being had before. And I would say our customers are very satisfied with the technology.

是。早安,史蒂夫。 Xtend大豆技术,也代表了我们混合的一半?也许,我们可能只有一半多一点。因此,它是我们大豆销售的重要组成部分。看,正如我所说,今年这是一个竞争非常激烈的市场。所以我没有看到他们报道的内容,但价格面临压力,但我们相信,在这个充满挑战的市场中,我们表现得非常强劲。就麦草畏施用于Xtend大豆的管理而言;这是一个非常重要的问题。我们的定制涂药器训练有素。我们确保他们确切地知道该做什么。我们记录了风。我们寻找倒置,我们确保当我们在Xtend大豆顶部施用麦草畏时,产品正在达到目标。所以我们没有看到这个问题。从杂草控制的角度来看,麦草畏在控制他们之前所谈论的杂草方面做得非常好。我想说我们的客户对这项技术非常满意。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.

我们的下一个问题来自Jeff Zekauskas和摩根大通。 你的生产线现已开放。

Selka Cook

Good morning. It’s Selka Cook for Jeff. I have a two-part question, but they are both quick. The first one is you given the – given the stages like were corn, I guess, soybean part setting as and everything being delayed. Is there a scenario, where the harvest could be late and if that’s the case, is that factored into the bottom end of your guidance? And my follow-up question is that I was wondering what the expectation for North American potash prices are sequentially in the second half based on success of the summer fill program? Thank you.

早上好。 这是杰夫的塞尔卡库克。 我有一个由两部分组成的问题,但它们都很快。 第一个是你给出的 - 鉴于像玉米这样的阶段,我猜,大豆部分设置为,一切都被推迟。 是否有一种情况,收获可能会延迟,如果是这样的话,是否会影响到指导的底端? 我的后续问题是,我想知道根据夏季填充计划的成功,对下半年北美钾肥价格的预期是多少? 谢谢。

Chuck Magro

Yes. I’ll have Susan Jones talk about second half potash prices and then I’ll address the harvest delay question.

是。 我将让Susan Jones谈论下半年的钾肥价格,然后我将解决收获延迟问题。

苏珊琼斯

Yes. good morning. In terms of the second half, potash fill program, we’re about 50% committed for the second half. So that answers the question in terms of how we’ve set it with summer fill, it’s about 50% of the volume. And just as a reminder, we do have industrial potash that and specialty that flows through as well.

是。 早上好。 就下半年的钾肥填补计划而言,下半年约占50%。 因此,我们如何通过夏季填充设置它来回答问题,它大约是音量的50%。 而且,作为一个提醒,我们确实有工业钾肥和特产流经。

Chuck Magro

Yes. And then just to your question on corn and late harvest in our guidance assumption. So, the short answer is the low end of our guidance, it still assumes that we have a fall application season. It doesn’t have to be a normal fall application season, but it can’t be what we saw in 2018. The other thing that I would say is that what we’re seeing today from a retail perspective in Q3 is supportive of say, the upper end of our guidance range. So, there is a scenario, where we believe we can get to the upper end of our guidance range. And in the lower end of our guidance range, what I’d say is that, it’s absolutely needed that we have a fall application season and – but it doesn’t have to be a normal season it just can’t be like last year.

是。 然后就我们的指导假设中的玉米和晚收的问题。 因此,简短的回答是我们指导的低端,它仍然假设我们有一个秋季应用季节。 它不一定是正常的秋季应用季节,但它不能是我们在2018年所看到的。我要说的另一件事是我们今天从零售角度看到的第三季度支持说 ,我们指导范围的上限。 因此,有一种情况,我们相信我们可以达到指导范围的上限。 在我们的指导范围的下端,我要说的是,我们绝对需要一个秋季应用季节 - 但它不一定是正常的季节,它不能像去年一样。

理查德唐尼

Thanks, everyone. Thanks for calling in. And if you have any other questions, all our guys are ready to answer on the phone. Thank you.

感谢大家。 感谢您的来电。如果您有任何其他问题,我们所有人都准备好通过电话接听。 谢谢。

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