Ball Corporation (BLL) 首席执行官 John Hayes 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

Ball Corporation (NYSE:BLL) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call August 1, 2019 11:00 AM ET

Ball Corporation(纽约证券交易所代码:[BLL])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年8月1日美国东部时间上午11:00


John Hayes - CEO
Scott Morrison - SVP, CFO
Dan Fisher - SVP, COO of Global Beverage

  • John Hayes - 首席执行官
  • Scott Morrison - 首席财务官,首席财务官
  • Dan Fisher - 全球饮料公司首席运营官高级副总裁


Anthony Pettinari - Citi
Ghansham Panjabi - Robert W. Baird & Co
Edlain Rodriguez - UBS
George Staphos - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Tyler Langton - JP Morgan
Arun Viswanathan - RBC Capital Markets
Kyle White - Deutsche Bank
Neel Kumar - Morgan Stanley
Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs
Chip Dillon - Vertical Research Partners

  • Anthony Pettinari - 花旗
  • Ghansham Panjabi - Robert W. Baird&Co
  • Edlain Rodriguez - 瑞银集团
  • George Staphos - 美国银行美林证券
  • 泰勒兰顿 - 摩根大通
  • Arun Viswanathan - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场
  • 凯尔怀特 - 德意志银行
  • 尼尔库马尔 - 摩根士丹利
  • Brian Maguire - Goldman Sachs
  • Chip Dillon - 垂直研究合作伙伴


Greetings and welcome to the Ball Corporation Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterwards we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is recorded today Thursday, August 1, 2019.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. John Hayes, CEO. Please go ahead.

欢迎参加Ball Corporation第二季度收益电话会议。 在演示期间,所有参与者将处于只听模式。 之后我们将进行问答环节。 [操作员说明]提醒一下,本次会议将于2019年8月1日星期四举行。

我现在想把会议转交给首席执行官约翰海耶斯先生。 请继续。


Thank you, Lila, and good morning everyone. This is Ball Corporation's conference call regarding the Company's second quarter 2019 results. The information provided during this call will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied. Some factors that could cause the results or outcomes to differ are in the Company's latest 10-K and in other company SEC filings as well as company news releases.
If you don't already have our second quarter earnings release, it's available on our website at Information regarding the use of non-GAAP financial measures may also be found in the notes section of today's earnings release. The release also includes a table summarizing business consolidation and other activities as well as a reconciliation of comparable operating earnings and diluted earnings per share calculations.
Now joining me on the call today are Scott Morrison, Senior Vice President and CFO and Dan Fisher, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Global Beverage. I will provide some introductory remarks. Dan will discuss the global beverage packaging performance. Scott will discuss key financial metrics. And then we will finish up with comments on our aerosol and aerospace businesses as well as our outlook for the Company.
Growth in our businesses continued at or reason above our expectations. Overall, global beverage volumes were up approximately 5%, and our aerospace revenues were up more than 30%. Across the globe can demand continues to increase as sustainability progresses from a special interest initiative to a mainstream lifestyle, and innovation and execution drive more customers to seek out solutions in all of our divisions.
To say this is an exciting time to be at our company and we said before may be an understatement. With this strong growth, we've experienced short-term costs to serve this growth particularly in our North and Central American and South America beverage can businesses. In fact, we probably less as pointed to a volume growth on the table as we're unable to deliver to and service to our customers at the level we typically expect ourselves.
To stay on top of this growth and mitigate our line conversions, other pattern freight and others short-term headwinds, we plan to deploy additional capital to debottleneck existing lines and build new capacity in order to provide for even greater growth and flexibility to supply our customer's needs at the levels that they demand. Scott and Dan will discuss our investment opportunities to grow profitably across our various geographies and businesses.
In aerospace, the team continues to deliver on its growth ambitions. Contract performance is strong, hiring is up and we expect to pursue further investments in this business to keep up with the strong growth that we continue to see. From an earnings perspective, our results were up despite tough year-over-year comps given the 2018 steel food and can business sale and conclusion at the end sale agreement in South America.

谢谢你,莉拉,大家早上好。这是Ball Corporation关于公司2019年第二季度业绩的电话会议。本次电话会议期间提供的信息将包含前瞻性陈述。实际结果或结果可能与可能表达或暗示的结果或结果存在重大差异。可能导致结果或结果不同的一些因素包括公司最新的10-K和其他公司的SEC文件以及公司新闻稿。


现在加入我的电话会议是高级副总裁兼首席财务官Scott Morrison和全球饮料公司高级副总裁兼首席运营官Dan Fisher。我将提供一些介绍性的评论。 Dan将讨论全球饮料包装的性能。 Scott将讨论关键的财务指标。然后我们将完成对气溶胶和航空航天业务的评论以及对公司的展望。



为了保持这一增长并缓解我们的生产线转换,其他模式货运和其他短期逆风,我们计划部署额外资金以消除现有生产线并建立新产能,以便为我们提供更大的增长和灵活性。客户需求达到他们所要求的水平。 Scott和Dan将讨论我们的投资机会,以便在我们的各个地区和业务中实现盈利增长。


As I mentioned, our North and Central America segment was challenged with previously discussed U.S. aluminum scrap headwinds and sequential project startup cost. All other segments were at or above our expectations. We expect these near-term costs headwinds to mitigate as we progress through the second half of the year and continue to expect year-over-year improvement in each of our main geographies.
Now key highlights for the quarter include, as I mentioned previously, overall global beverage can growth of approximately 5% driven by 13% specialty can growth. In fact growth in our three key regions North and Central America, Europe and South America grew 6% when you exclude the declines we experienced in Asia. Dan will get into this later. Today specialty can represent over 42% of our mix on a global basis.
The growth is prevalent our largest markets with North and Central America up approximately 4% year-over-year, South America up 12%, and Europe up 7%, while EMEA was down slightly due to continued difficult macroeconomic issues in this region. We received antitrust approval for the sale of our China beverage can business and we expect the transaction to close later in the third or fourth quarter depending on other governmental approvals around tax closeouts and foreign exchange flows.
Our aerospace revenues were up over 30% and operating earnings were up 55%. While we don't expect this level of growth to continue, we do expect revenues to be up nearly 25% for the full year and operating earnings should continue to grow at revenue growth rates. Aluminum aerosol was up low single digits with new product innovation worth continuing. We continue to focus on raising awareness on sustainability, the benefits of aluminum packaging, and proactively investing in and offer aluminum packaging solutions to our customers.
One interesting note regarding in a growth is that while many new products continue to move in the cans, our growth today has not been meaningfully impacted by any conversions of existing brands from plastic or other substrates to aluminum beverage cans, particularly the nonalcoholic categories including CSD and water. That said there have been several public announcements regarding such conversions that Dan will discuss and they will begin to hit the market later this year or early next year.
In addition, this fall we will launch our new infinitely recyclable brandable aluminum cups that will make their commercials debuts in college and professional stadiums during the fall football season. With an addressable market of over 90 billion units globally, a third of which are in the U.S., we're incredibly excited about this new innovation product launch. Stay tuned for further media announcements.
So in summary, we continue to see strong growth across our various businesses and while we've been challenged with short-term costs of service growth, we believe these headwinds will begin to moderate and dissipate as we move through the second half of the year. We have many exciting opportunities in front of us that set us up -- set our business up well going into 2020 and beyond.







总而言之,我们继续看到各个业务的强劲增长,虽然我们受到短期服务成本增长的挑战,但我们相信随着我们在下半年的进展,这些逆风将开始缓和并消散。我们面前有很多令人兴奋的机会让我们受益匪浅 - 让我们的业务顺利进入2020年及以后。

We will continue to execute our long-term strategy of deploying capital and supportive growth opportunities, increasing EVA dollars in earning over time through higher revenues above cost growth, driving more mix shifts and especially containers, growing new innovative aluminum packaging products like the cup and expanding aerospace, all with return of value to our shareholders mindset.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Dan.

我们将继续执行我们的长期战略,即部署资本和支持性增长机会,通过增加收入高于成本增长来增加EVA收入,推动更多混合班次,尤其是集装箱,增加新的创新铝包装产品,如杯子和 扩大航空航天领域,所有这些都为我们的股东心态带来了价值回报。


Dan Fisher

Thanks, John. Across our global operations, our team is navigating tremendous growth, complexity and incredibly tight supply demand conditions. Sustainability and new categories are fueling customer demand. And looking ahead, when existing products convert from single-serve PET to cans in 2020 and beyond given the recent announcements by two of the world's largest beverage brands, the growth for beverage cans will accelerate.
In the near-term and until we have more assets up and running, costs to serve the surge in growth dampened in the North America's performance, given the U.S. aluminum scrap situation we called out last quarter, and pushing our existing plans and new lines to the maximum to keep customer in cans.
Turning to growth. Our second quarter global beverage can shipments were up 5% and excluding declines in China and EMEA, global volumes were up 6%. However, comparable operating earnings were down slightly year-over-year due exclusively to the previously disclosed U.S. aluminum scrap issues and continued U.S. line inefficiencies.
Completion of the South American [ENS] manufacturing agreement, macroeconomic issues in EMEA and some Euro FX earnings translation headwinds. All-in, these issues impact the comparable global beverage earnings 55 million in the quarter, with roughly 35 million in the North America business, 14 million in South America and 5 million in Europe.
Across the globe, our teams kept pace with tremendous growth in Europe, Brazil and North America, which as John mentioned, is still experiencing operational and logistical inefficiencies given a tight U.S. industry and higher than anticipated growth in Brazil. The unfavorable impacts of U.S. aluminum scrap, logistics and customer ordering complexities have largely been addressed in contracts renewing in 2020 and beyond.
Before I move on to the segment commentary, a brief update on some internal talent moves. After decades of successfully leading numerous Ball regions, we recently brought Colin Gillis over from Europe, and he will now be leading our North America operations. And Colin's European role will be backfilled by Ron Lewis, who is joining Ball from Coca Cola European partners, where he was their Chief Supply Chain Officer. Ron worked in the coke system for nearly 20 years, and we have known him throughout that time. His experience and leadership will be a great addition to our team.
Moving to the individual segments, Ball's North American segment volumes were up 4% in the quarter, continuing double-digit growth in spiked seltzers, wine, craft beer, new water brands and developing categories of fitness energy drinks and spirits and premixed cocktails, and cans led to year-over-year growth and specialty.
Inventory levels for our specialty portfolio are low and every plant in our network is running at maximum utilization. Given the combination of strong growth, the upcoming transition of traditional products such as still water from single-serve plastic to cans, the demands on our existing operational assets are such that we will not be able to sustain current growth rates without additional investment. Conversions, wind speed ups and additions at existing facilities in Georgia and Texas are in process.






在我继续讨论细分评论之前,先简要介绍一些内部人才的动态。经过几十年成功领导众多Ball地区,我们最近将Colin Gillis带到了欧洲,他现在将领导我们的北美业务。科林的欧洲角色将由罗恩·刘易斯(Ron Lewis)回填,他正在加入来自可口可乐欧洲合作伙伴的Ball,他是他们的首席供应链官。罗恩在焦炭系统工作了近20年,我们在那段时间里认识他。他的经验和领导力将成为我们团队的一个重要补充。



We look forward to offering new products and more specially aluminum can and bottle capability to support our customer's growth. Following these investments, our plant teams will gain some operational breathing room across the system, allowing us to get costs in line and with previously negotiated contracts favorably resetting at the beginning of 2020. I fully expect strong earnings momentum across North America in late 2019 and beyond.
Turning to our South American segment, volumes were up 12% in the second quarter, led by incredible strength in Brazil. As mentioned earlier, the completion of the [ENS] manufacturing contract required as part of the Rexam transaction led to just slightly lower second quarter earnings. Higher than anticipated Brazilian volume growth led to incremental logistics costs. Comps will improve as we move toward the fourth quarter, which is the seasonally strongest quarter for South America.
Our expansion in Paraguay is on track for late 2019 startup and the 2018 expansions of Argentina and Chile or performance expectations. And similar to North America, overall, South American industry trends remain strong with cans. New products and brand launches for beer, wine, energy and still watering cans as well as multiple brewery expansions will support additional investment across the industry and specifics of all a new customers multiple brewery expansions will support additional capital in Brazil, including a multiline greenfield facility.
Europeans beverage earnings were up 16% in the second quarter due to volume growth and improved year-over-year operational performance despite a 5 million unfavorable operating earnings translation impact in the quarter. Volumes increased 7% in the second quarter despite mixed weather during the quarter. Cans are winning and customers operations continue to add new can filing lines.
For 2019 contributions from our new lines, the year over impact of our 2018 G&A improvement and plant cost initiatives will provide further year-over-year earnings growth and margin expansion as we progress through the balance of the year. Looking ahead, we will leverage our existing Continental Europe network with near-term line speed ups. While in Russia, we are executing a capacity expansion strategy in the short, medium term to support in country can grow.
Turning to EMEA and Asia, the demand environment was softer than anticipated, as Middle Eastern conflicts escalated in the quarter. Operationally, the plants have lowered their costs and focused on controlling what they can control. And as John mentioned in China, Ball has secured antitrust approval and has begun the multistage closing process for the Chinese manufacturing plant sale to ORG.
In summary, global beverage can demand momentum has continued in our three largest regions of North and Central America, Brazil and Europe. Supply demand globally for cans is tight and our commercial sustainability and recent talent moves will benefit Ball going forward. As John mentioned earlier, the amount of growth we are seeing today and are securing into the future is amazing. We will invest wisely with an eye on EVA returns and a proper pace relative to customers long term needs. Thank you again to all of our teams around the globe.








With that, I'll turn it over to Scott.



Thanks Dan. Comparable second quarter 2019 diluted earnings per share was $0.64 versus $0.58 in the second quarter of 2018. Second quarter 2019 results reflect $0.04 comparable earnings per share diluted impact of the July 2018 sale or U.S. steel food and steel aerosol business. Details are provided in the notes section of today's earnings release and additional information will also be provided in our 10-Q.
Second quarter comparable diluted earnings per share reflects strong global beverage can shipments and solid aerospace contract performance. A lower effective tax rate and lower corporate costs offset by the sale of our U.S. steel food and aerosol business and low lower year-over-year end sales in South America and U.S. scrapping startup costs as Dan just outline.
Net debt ended of the quarter of $6.5 billion and reflects our typical seasonal working capital build and ongoing share buyback. We continue to anticipate year-end 2019 net debt to remain around $6 billion as the buyback stock and invest in our businesses and pay dividends throughout 2019.
Close to 90% of Ball's balance sheet debt is a fixed rates and we've reached our post-Rexam target leverage levels. Ball's balance sheet is healthy and provides ample opportunity and flexibility to service growth and shareholder value return needs.
As we think about 2019, our 2019 financial goals originally laid out in mid 2016 are largely intact. With the North American scrap and operational headwinds that we faced in the first half, that makes the full year $2 billion of EBITDA challenging to hit.
Having said that, our second half expectations haven't changed as the scrap and operational headwinds begin to moderate and our unit volume growth continues to show strength. We'll exit this year on a $2 billion EBITDA run rate.
Given all the excellent growth opportunities and dependent on the pace of CapEx spend and incremental pension funding, we see 2019 free cash flow being in the range of $1 billion. Full year interest expense will be a little bit more to $310 million.
Full year effective tax rate and comparable earnings will be in the range of 19% to 20% and corporate undistributed will likely run just under $75 million, representing benefits from strong overall cost management and the benefits of our shared services structure. We anticipate benefiting from this low cost structure in 2020 and beyond.
Year-to-date, we've executed nearly $400 million of repurchases of stocks and paid out approximately $80 million in dividends. The accelerated stock repurchase program that we announced earlier this year continues to be executed.
Following the year-to-date run up in the stock, we get asked a lot about capital allocation plans. The significant long-term growth opportunities we have in cans, cups and aerospace will require growth CapEx over time. And despite this growth CapEx, we continue to flow meaningful amounts of free cash flow like always we will manage for the benefit of our long-term shareholders, when you invest in volume, you invest with us.

谢谢丹。 2019年第二季度可比较的每股摊薄收益为0.64美元,而2018年第二季度为0.58美元。2019年第二季度业绩反映了2018年7月销售或美国钢铁食品和钢铁气雾剂业务的每股0.04美元可比收益稀释影响。详情请见今日收益发布的备注部分,其他信息也将在我们的10-Q中提供。



Ball的资产负债表债务接近90%是固定利率,我们达到了Rexam后目标杠杆水平。 Ball的资产负债表是健康的,为服务增长和股东价值回报需求提供了充足的机会和灵活性。







With that, I'll turn it back to you, John.



Great. Thanks, Scott. In our aluminum aerosol business which is now reflected in other non-reportable results, and as I mentioned earlier, global volumes grew 1% in the quarter. Industry dynamics are beginning to change and we continue to see opportunities to broaden our global footprint either through bolt-on M&A or greenfield investment. These opportunities varied by geography.
We are proud of the progress the team is making on innovation and sustainability initiatives. As I mentioned, our aerospace business reported 31% revenue growth and 58% operating earnings growth on solid contract performance partially offset by incremental labor costs. In addition, we welcome nearly 600 new aerospace employee year-to-date and we anticipate adding at least another 600 employees by year-end. Total aerospace headcount recently surpassed 4,200 people. Our focused remains firmly on on-boarding these new employees, further expansion of our Colorado facilities and executing on our strong backlog.
Looking forward to the new two-year U.S. budget agreement further underpins the growth that we see, and aerospace now has the potential of growing its earnings in excess of 20% 2019 and with contracted backlog levels exceeding 2 billion and our won not booked backlog at 4.8 billion, the future continues to look bright for the foreseeable future. While we make great strides towards the 2019 financial goals originally laid out mid-2016, our longer term prospects have never been brighter. Ball is uniquely positioned to lead and invest in sustainable growth in a global aluminum packaging and aerospace while delivering significant value to our shareholders.
We look forward to receiving our long-term 10% to 15% diluted earnings per share growth goal in 2019 and over the next several years. While we're striving in the short-term to manage costs and squeeze as many cans at our existing operations, we're completely immersed in our long-term growth plans and increasing value creation for our shareholders. Our ability to succeed is because of our people, our culture, EVA mindset, our healthy balance sheet and exceptional products and technologies. We will continue to responsibly invest in our businesses for the long-term and do what is best for Ball and our shareholders long-term success.
And with that, Lila, we're ready for questions.



期待新的两年美国预算协议进一步巩固了我们看到的增长,航空航天现在有可能增加2019年超过20%的收益,并且合同积压水平超过20亿,我们的赢得没有预订积压48亿美元,在可预见的未来,未来仍将继续光明。虽然我们在2016年中期最初制定的2019年财务目标方面取得了很大进展,但我们的长期前景从未如此光明。 Ball的独特定位是引领并投资于全球铝包装和航空航天领域的可持续增长,同时为我们的股东创造巨大价值。




[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead.

[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Anthony Pettinari与Citi的合作。 请继续。

Anthony Pettinari

John, the view that you'll be able to grow earnings beyond the 10%, 15% EPS range over the next few years. I guess what kind of volume assumptions underlie that on the bev can side? And can you give us any detail on maybe customer commitments you secure that give you confidence that you'd be able to reach that volume number?

约翰认为,未来几年你的收益将超过10%,15%的收益率。 我想是什么样的音量假设是bev可以支持的? 您能否向我们提供有关您确保的客户承诺的任何细节,让您相信您能够达到该卷数量?


First, with respect to volume growth, as we said in the first quarter, historically, we always thought this business to be plus or minus globally about a 2% unit volume growth around the world and we think it's double that. We've been outperforming that relative and I think in the very short-term, we can continue to see that. But I think over the long-term, 4% unit volume growth is a good way to think about it. And if there's upside to that, we're going to be spending more capital, because we assume it's going to be good at EVA return projects to meet our customer's needs.
In terms of specific customers in the contract, we don't get into anything. But for example, the new plant we're building in Brazil is secured by a new long-term customer. In North America, here we've been, as I mentioned in my comments, we've been leaving growth on the table because we haven't been able to serve incremental. So the demand certainly is there. We just need to get our supply caught up, so we can get a little breathing room and give our operational folks more opportunity kind of slowdown the conversions as they've been experiencing, which have been increasingly short-term, which happened increasing the short-term headwinds that we talked about.



Anthony Pettinari

And then, Dan, you talked about 55 million of headwinds in the quarter from operational inefficiencies, and you broke that out between North America, Europe and LATAM. Any view on what that number could look like in 3Q? And then just directionally, would you expect those headwinds to abate in all three of the regions that you mentioned? Or could they intensify or be relatively stable, say on that in 3Q?

然后,丹,你谈到了本季度因运营效率低下而导致的5500万逆风,你在北美,欧洲和拉美之间爆发了这种情况。 有关这个数字在3Q看起来如何的看法? 然后只是方向性地,你会期望这些逆风在你提到的所有三个地区减弱吗? 或者他们可能会加强或相对稳定,比如3Q?

Dan Fisher

I think we're very hopeful that the 35 in North America in particular will dissipate. And we've got plans in place on the metal scrap issue that will start to trend in a more favorable direction. It will still be a headwind year-over-year, but it'll be less of the headwind than we saw in the first half. The performance in our inefficient lines, we had two conversions that took place in the quarter. And then we still have, we're still a little behind on two lines and the Goodyear startup. We're seeing progress there.
So I think that momentum will continue through the quarters. I don't know if it dissipates entirely in 3Q, but it will continue to progress in the right direction heading into certainly beginning of '19. And then really, Europe FX that we described, I probably can't give you much guidance there. And the 15 million that I quoted or the $14 million in South America is, that will dissipate in the second half the year the last as it relates to the [ORG] amortization.

我认为我们非常希望特别是北美的35国将会消散。 我们已经制定了金属废料问题的计划,这个计划将开始向更有利的方向发展。 它仍将是一年一度的逆风,但它将比我们在上半年看到的逆风更少。 在我们效率低下的表现中,我们在本季度进行了两次转换。 然后我们仍然有,我们在两条线和Goodyear初创公司仍然有点落后。 我们在那里看到了进步。

所以我认为这种势头将持续整个季度。 我不知道它是否会在第三季完全消失,但它将继续朝着正确的方向发展,直到19世纪初。 然后真的,我们描述的欧洲FX,我可能无法在那里给你很多指导。 而我所引用的1500万或南美洲的1400万美元,将在今年下半年消散,因为它与[ORG]摊销有关。


Our next question is from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird & Co.

我们的下一个问题来自Ghansham Panjabi与Robert W. Baird&Co。的合作。

Ghansham Panjabi

First off on the 13% increase in specialty can volumes in 2Q. John, can you sort of break that out by region? And then you also mentioned growth came in above your expeditions for the second quarter. And I am sorry if I miss this, but which region in particular surprise you to the upside?

第一季度专业罐装量增长13%。 约翰,你能不能按地区划分呢? 然后你还提到了第二季度你的探险之上的增长。 我很抱歉,如果我错过了这个,但哪个地区特别让你感到惊讶?


Well, I think the momentum continues to answer your question. First, in North America, especially volumes were all single, upper single digits. As I said, they could have been higher, but we just didn't have enough cans to get out in the marketplace. I know, South America was very strong, was low 20% growth, in the specialty and even in Europe we're seeing a lot. What, fundamentally what's driving this, as you're seeing all these new categories and all these new products moving to the specialty containers and that's what we get most excited about.
Ghansham, as you know over the past 5 to 10 years, we've really been a put a focus on putting supply of specialty containers into our system. And that only continues to accelerate. I think to answer your broader question about where were we surprised. I just think overall, global growth in a very seasonally strong quarter up 6% of you exclude China. And when you think about that and we left growth on the table for, we could have very, if we had the capacity, we very easily could have replicated the first quarter. But we did. And that's why you're we're talking about putting more capital in.



Ghansham Panjabi

Okay, then just based on your current projects you know that you've announced including line speed, speed up and debottlenecking. How much incremental capacity will your footprint generate in the developed markets going into 2020? And then up the new categories that you're benefiting from, how is the filling location dispersion different relative to your legacy customers? I'm just trying to get a sense as to how logistics costs are different for these new customers. And also, it may impact your capital allocation plans willing to join the new capacity going forward?

好的,那么根据您当前的项目,您知道您已经宣布包括线速,加速和消除瓶颈。 到2020年,您的足迹在发达市场中会产生多少增量容量? 然后,您可以从中受益的新类别,填充位置分散与您的传统客户相比有何不同? 我只是想了解这些新客户的物流成本是如何不同的。 而且,它可能会影响您愿意加入新产能的资本分配计划吗?


Yes, I would say by mid 2021. What we're signaling here is somewhere between $4 billion to $5 billion of additional capacity. And the reason 2020 is a difficult comment for us is I think, in Texas specifically that is the most difficult environmental permitting area that we deal with anywhere in the world. So, you can't even start civil engineering projects until the permitting, is officially signed off and that could take as long as the year. So 2021, I've got good line of sight that the new facility the two lines and the speed ups that are all in process will be up and running. And we should be executed against those by mid-2021. Maybe 60%, of what I've described falls in the second half of 2020.

是的,我想说到2021年中期。我们在这里发出的信号是40亿美元到50亿美元的额外容量。 我认为2020年对我们来说是一个难以评论的原因,特别是在德克萨斯州,这是我们在世界任何地方处理的最困难的环境许可区域。 因此,在获得许可之前,您甚至无法启动土木工程项目,正式签署并且可能需要长达一年的时间。 所以到了2021年,我已经有了很好的视线,新设施的两条生产线和正在加速的加速装置都将启动并运行。 我们应该在2021年中期对付那些人。 也许60%,我所描述的是在2020年下半年。


So, the best way to think about it, if you break it into line speed up versus lines versus new facilities, kind of a third, a third, a third is the best way to say it. Line speedups will -- that will be able to help us out for most of 2020, certainly in the summer selling season in North America. And as Dan said, the lines between the lines are putting in North America. One, we have a pretty good line of sight that should be able to help in the second half of next year. And then the other one in Texas is dependent upon the permitting. And then as we go into South America, thinks it's really more for 2021.

因此,考虑它的最佳方式是,如果你将线条加速,而不是线条与新设施相比,那么三分之一,三分之一,三分之一是最好的说法。 线速加速 - 这将在2020年的大部分时间里帮助我们,当然在北美的夏季销售季节。 正如丹所说,这些线路之间的线路正在北美。 一,我们有一个非常好的视线,应该能够在明年下半年提供帮助。 然后德克萨斯州的另一个依赖于许可。 然后,当我们进入南美洲时,认为2021年真的更多。

Ghansham Panjabi

And just the new categories in the filling locations? Thanks so much.

只是填充地点的新类别? 非常感谢。


Yes, definitely benefiting from new categories in North America. And the one of the investments will be targeted to a new filling location. The rest of the incremental investments will be falling into existing filling locations.

是的,绝对受益于北美的新类别。 其中一项投资将针对新的填充地点。 其余的增量投资将落入现有的填充地点。


And Ghansham, as you know, we don't talk about specific customers, contracts and/or growth plans, but we are aware of a variety of specific customers that are adding, filling, can filling, capacity whether it's North America, whether it's Europe, and we're dovetailing our geographic investments with those. And so, there have been some customers that have been, having to buy cans from us, and one geographic location, ship them across [audio gap] country to another one where they fill it. We're aiming and looking to work with them on streamlining a lot of that. So, it will not only help us but it will also help them.

如你所知,Ghansham并没有谈论具体的客户,合同和/或增长计划,但我们知道各种特定客户正在增加,填充,填充,容量,无论是北美,是否是 欧洲,我们将这些地理投资与这些投资相结合。 因此,有一些客户已经,不得不从我们这里购买罐头,以及一个地理位置,将它们从[音频间隙]国家运送到另一个填充它的国家。 我们的目标是并希望与他们合作,简化其中的大部分工作。 所以,它不仅会帮助我们,还会帮助他们。


I think one last question on the new category expansion or one last comment is. We absolutely are looking at what products and what customers are winning in the market and which months we want to be with. And those definitely played into some of these expansions and investment call us.

我认为关于新类别扩展或最后一条评论的最后一个问题是。 我们绝对关注的是哪些产品和客户在市场上赢得了什么,以及我们希望与哪些产品合作。 那些肯定会参与其中的一些扩展和投资打电话给我们。


Our next question is from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with UBS. Please go ahead.

我们的下一个问题来自Edlain Rodriguez和UBS。 请继续。

Edlain Rodriguez

John, question for you. I mean, you'll be adding new capacity. Your main competitor is adding more capacities, like gaining concerns that the industry may be attracting too much capital too soon, or do you feel that volume will be strong enough to absorb it all over the next couple of years?

约翰,问你。 我的意思是,你将增加新的容量。 您的主要竞争对手是增加更多产能,例如担心行业可能过早吸引太多资金,或者您是否认为产量足够强大,可以在未来几年吸收所有资产?


We feel pretty darn strongly that the growth in the various markets is more than sufficient to cover that up. As I mentioned, just giving context here. In North America, it's approximately 100 billion can market has been growing at 4%. That's 4 billion cans right there alone in any given year.
You multiply that over a couple of years and next thing you're looking at 12 billion of new capacity and that's 8 to 12 new line. That is why we're getting out ahead of me as you all know we've invested depends on where you look, but across our whole system globally, we've invested in 11 in line so we're last 18 months and we've been able to keep up with live growth, but not completely old.
And so, what we're doing is this is just the next phase trying to get out ahead because I know we believe strongly that by 2021, that in given everything that our customers have been talking about that's in the pipeline right now that we see this growth continuing. And that's not even talking about the broader picture of this whole anti plastic sustainability and that continues to accelerate. This is where we're going to be talking about more capital as we go forward, also.




Edlain Rodriguez

Okay, and in terms of capital allocation, so that new and all those investments you're making. Are they going to be coming at the expense of share buyback? Or do you think you can still do that $1 billion that you've talked about over the next couple of years share buyback?

好的,就资本配置而言,所有新投资和所有投资都是如此。 它们是否会以牺牲股票回购为代价? 或者你认为在接下来的几年中你还能谈到10亿美元的股票回购吗?


Here is the way we think about it and I'll turn it over to Scott a minute, but when you talk about this growth, as we all know, we've talked about this. Our DNA is approximately $550 million. And we set our maintenance of no growth capitals in the range of $250 million. We've also said people have asked over time and how much does it cost for new line and it varies tremendously by region and what capacities you want to put in.
But if you say up roughly, a new line is approximately $75 million. And you get anywhere from 800 to a 1 billion cans on it depending on how many swings you have in that. That means to keep up with this growth on a global basis. You're talking about a growth for us on a base of 105 plus 1 billion cans as growing 4%. That's about four new lines a year. And if it's a 75 million, that is about 300 million.
So you later on top of that, you get 250 maintenance plus 300 of growth, that gets about DNA, then you layer on the growth that we have for aerospace. And then you grow on cups and other things even quickly see how we get the kind of 700 million. If that global beverage can growth continues, and we need to put more in, we have the capacity to because then I'll turn it over, Scott now. Even with all this elevated CapEx, we're still generating a tremendous amount of free cash flow.





Yes, I think we're going to continue to invest in our business on all these projects where we can grow EVA dollars grow our earnings, we're going to continue to be buying back or stock paying dividends. I think the 50% increase earlier this year is pretty strong evidence of that. And I think we'll be both kind of a consistent buyer of our stock, but also an opportunity to repurchase of our shares and take advantage of volatility. And so that means that any quarter to we may buy more or less depending on that volatility. But we're going to continue to invest in our business and return a lot of capital back to the shareholders.

是的,我认为我们将继续在所有这些项目上投资我们的业务,在这些项目中我们可以增加EVA美元增加我们的收益,我们将继续回购或支付股息。 我认为今年早些时候增加50%是相当有力的证据。 而且我认为我们既可以成为我们股票的持续买家,也可以回购我们的股票并利用波动性。 因此,这意味着我们可能会根据波动性或多或少地购买任何季度。 但我们将继续投资于我们的业务,并将大量资金返还给股东。


Yes, let me just reiterate, over the last 20 years, we have done that exact same model. We've invested in our business. And we've generated a tremendous amount of our shareholder, value for shareholders by being consistent allocators of capital back to our shareholders. Yes, we have elevated CapEx, which is exciting, because that's going to provide the growth. And we also have the flexibility to be consistent, and over the long term and returning value to shareholders.

是的,我要重申一下,在过去的20年里,我们已经完成了同样的模型。 我们投资了我们的业务。 我们通过为股东提供一致的资本分配,为股东创造了巨大的股东价值。 是的,我们已经提升资本支出,这是令人兴奋的,因为这将提供增长。 而且我们还可以灵活地保持一致,并且长期并为股东带来回报。


The next question is from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

接下来的问题来自George Staphos与美国银行美林公司的合作。 请继续。

George Staphos

Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for all the commentary. I just wanted to ask a question kind of a point of clarification to start. The additional 4 billion to 5 billion cans of capacity Dan that you said you think you'd get to on an annualized basis by mid 21. Does that include capacity, does that include within the number for aluminum cups or does it not? And similarly, I thought it would have, but given John's commentary earlier. Does that include anything for any of these still water conversions or not?

嗨,大家好。 早上好。 感谢所有的评论。 我只是想问一个问题,从一开始就要澄清一点。 还有额外的40亿至50亿罐容量Dan,你认为你认为在21年中期之前就已经达到了年产量。这是否包括容量,是否包括铝杯数量或者不包括? 同样地,我认为它会有,但先前给出了约翰的评论。 这是否包括任何这些仍在进行的水转换?

Dan Fisher

I would say cups. No, it's not in there. And still water conversions. That's it. We don't have much built into that 5 billion. And as you imagine, George, we're having very different conversations with the customer base. All the 3 major markets are incredibly tight. And so if there was going to be a move in the water, and there are certainly conversations about that. It will require some significant collaboration between us and our customers to make the supply chain, they'll have to invest in doing, they'll have to invest in potentially different logistics structures and warehousing, and we'll have to add capacity for him. And so those conversations would be in very early innings right now.

我会说杯子。 不,它不在那里。 仍然是水转换。 而已。 我们没有多少内置到这50亿。 正如您所想,乔治,我们与客户群的对话非常不同。 所有三个主要市场都非常紧张。 因此,如果有一个在水中的举动,并且肯定有关于此的谈话。 这需要我们和客户之间进行一些重要的合作来建立供应链,他们必须投资,他们将不得不投资可能不同的物流结构和仓储,我们必须为他增加容量。 所以这些谈话现在就在很早的时候。

George Staphos

And I would take it probably not prudent to size what the opportunity could be either for cups or for still water, maybe not 21, but 22, 23, because it obviously, so you don't have a full agreement yet on the water side. You can't bring in permitting. You can't bring in CapEx yet. But is there a way to size what it could look like maybe in 22, or 23?

而且我认为可能无法确定机会可能是杯子还是静水的大小,可能不是21,而是22,23,因为很明显,所以你还没有在水面上达成完全的协议。 你不能带来许可。 你还不能带入资本支出。 但有没有办法确定它可能看起来像22或23?

Dan Fisher

Yes, I'll let John comment. It would be difficult. It's a massive market. I think single-serve waters 500 billion units and global cans is 300. So, a 2% move, 3% move would require a very different investment pattern for us. On the cup side, we are commercializing the product. It will be in some sporting venues now. The thing that we're trying to get our head wrapped around is exactly the outputs that will come from a massive line or footprint, expansion. We're working through those and those details right now. So given you commentary on the specific volumes for the investment still a little premature, but we'll know that the next 60 to 90 days, I think.

是的,我会让John发表评论。 这很难。 这是一个巨大的市场。 我认为单一服务水域5000亿单位和全球罐头300只。因此,2%的移动,3%的移动需要一个非常不同的投资模式。 在杯子方面,我们正在商品化产品。 它现在将在一些体育场馆。 我们试图让我们的头脑缠绕的东西正是来自大规模线路或足迹,扩展的输出。 我们正在研究这些和那些细节。 因此,鉴于您对投资的具体数量的评论仍然有点为时过早,但我们知道,接下来的60到90天,我想。


Yes. George just amplifying, the cups are completely agreed on the water side. But just on the cups as I mentioned in my comments, around the world in terms of the addressable market for this, it's over 90 billion units, a third of which are in the United States. This will come at a premium aluminum's not inexpensive, but what we see is so far is a very strong willingness to pay a premium for a sustainable product, particularly as college campuses and professional sports venues go plastic free.

是。 乔治刚刚放大,杯子在水面完全达成一致。 但正如我在评论中所提到的那样,就可寻址市场来说,它在世界各地都有超过900亿个单位,其中三分之一在美国。 这将是一个优质的铝并不便宜,但我们所看到的是一个非常强烈的愿意为可持续产品支付溢价,特别是大学校园和专业体育场馆免费塑料。

George Staphos

Understood. I thought that some of the investment and lines that you're talking about now would include some capacity for cup is that incorrect. So if, I know, you're commercializing, you're doing some pilots this coming football season. Am I mistaken that if you really go full force with this, that the investment really hasn't been lined up yet for that, those revenue streams?

了解。 我认为你现在谈论的一些投资和线路将包括一些杯子容量是不正确的。 所以,如果,我知道,你正在商业化,那么你正在为即将到来的足球赛季做一些飞行员。 我错了,如果你真的全力以赴,那投资真的还没有排好,那些收入来源?


Yes, that is correct. We have already put in a pilot line that we're currently serving for this fall, but to really scale it out. It requires a new investment that we have not announced yet.

对,那是正确的。 我们已经在今年秋季推出了一条试用线,但要真正扩展它。 它需要我们尚未宣布的新投资。

George Staphos

Okay. Thanks for all the back and forth on that. Last question on investment and I'll have one shorter term one, and I'll turn it over just out of fairness. So, the return on capital that you're seeing out of these new investments, is there a way to say whether it's, perhaps a lesser rate than what you've seen, but you're getting so much growth, you're willing to take a lower return than what you've seen in the past? Are the returns on these new projects equivalent or above? What you've seen with returns on your last two or three year's worth of growth CapEx?
And then separately and maybe shorter term, given all the growth you're seeing, what gives you confidence, which is the investor takeaway is why we should be confident that the startup costs and all the other variable expense that's been sort of a record has been something that will dissipate by 2020. Is it mostly in the contracts? Or is it the learnings that you're getting from all of the work you're doing right now? What would it be? Thank you guys and good luck in the quarter.




Thank you. I'll answer the return question. First, the conversations that we're having with our customers are very different. I think John indicated this. And that is resulting at least all the projects that we've approved thus far or at North of historical norms returns on these projects. In Europe, North America and South America, the markets are tight. And so the conversations are, in many of those markets that used to have excess capacity, they're just very different. And so we should be doing better from a returns threshold standpoint at this point.
Fair question and I think when John indicated, the three buckets of capital investments or how will get units, the easiest units to get our speed ups and conversions, the second most difficult are our full line expansions and the third are greenfield. And where we have admittedly struggled, whether it's Monterrey or it's Goodyear or it's Cabanillas over the last couple of years, we generally had an 18 month time horizon on seeing the commercialization of the products and getting up to a run rate.
And I think it's probably going to take a little longer than that. And we'll probably communicate that more explicitly. One thing that we do know that we have to spend a hell of a lot more time on training. And the other thing and some of these markets, these are the first -- in North America, Goodyear is really the first market where we built a greenfield plant in 30 something years. So, we will get better at it. And I think we'll hire better. I think we'll train better. And we're fully committed to that.



而且我认为这可能需要更长的时间。我们可能会更明确地传达这一点。有一件事我们知道,我们必须花更多的时间在训练上。而另一方面和其中一些市场,这些都是第一个 - 在北美,固特异是第一个在30年内建造绿地工厂的市场。所以,我们会更好。而且我认为我们会更好地雇用。我想我们会更好地训练。我们完全致力于此。


Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Tyler Langton with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自Tyler Langton与JP Morgan的合作。 请继续。


Good morning. Thank you. I think you just mentioned from the sustainability, you really haven't sort of seen a benefit yet then you kind of mentioned just Northern Europe, you're starting to see some customers convert from PET to can. Can you just talk about how significant that move is? Or just provide a little more color on that?

早上好。 谢谢。 我想你刚才从可持续发展中提到过,你真的没有看到一个好处,然后你提到的只是北欧,你开始看到一些客户从PET转换成罐头。 你能谈谈这一举动有多重要吗? 或者只是提供一点颜色?


Yes, well, this is John. Maybe I'll turn over to Dan. We didn't say we have got a better from sustainability. All these new products, I think are being driven by sustainability. What we haven't seen in any meaningful way, is existing brands that are already in existing substrates converting to aluminum. We -- there have been some public announcements by customers, we are obviously aware of other investments that they're making for those conversions. And that's what gives us some conviction as we look forward into it.
I do think that many brand owners are struggling as their retailers are demanding more sustainable products, and a reduction of their footprints, both environmentally and from a greenhouse gas perspective, and they're turning to products such as aluminum, and that's what I was talking about. You're absolutely right. In Europe, you're seeing it. I think you're starting to see it in North America. I think someone asked a question earlier about, how big could that be? We're in early innings. So, it's too early to tell, but so far so good in terms of what we've seen.

是的,好吧,这是约翰。也许我会转向Dan。我们并没有说我们在可持续发展方面做得更好。我认为所有这些新产品都受到可持续发展的推动。我们没有看到任何有意义的方式,现有品牌已经在现有的基板转换为铝。我们 - 客户已发布一些公告,我们显然知道他们为这些转换所做的其他投资。当我们期待它时,这就是给我们一些信念。



And then in terms of the corporate expenses, Scott, I guess, I think 16 million this quarter having a low-20s. Is that 16 million a good run rate going forward? And is that mainly from sort of the shared services initiative?

然后就公司开支而言,斯科特,我猜,我认为本季度有1600万人低于20。 这1600万是不是很好的运行率? 这主要来自共享服务计划吗?


It's a ton of different things, but our run rate should be pretty good. I said it it'd end up kind of just under 75 million for the full year. We're benefiting -- we're doing a lot of things whether it's restructuring, legal entities. Some of the things we've done in pensions, shared services, it's all those things that are adding to that, basically lowering our costs that will get the benefit, not just this year, but into the future.

这是很多不同的事情,但我们的运行率应该非常好。 我说它全年最终只有不到7500万。 我们受益 - 无论是重组还是法律实体,我们都在做很多事情。 我们在养老金,共享服务方面做过的一些事情,就是那些增加了这些的东西,基本上降低了我们的成本,而不仅仅是今年,而是未来。


Let's not forget a couple of years ago. We talked about over the 2018 release, latter half of how '17, we're going to actually be making investments in standing up shared services, and we should start to get the benefits as we get into the second half of '19. And that's exactly what we're seeing. But to Scott's point, that's just one of it. There're hundreds of different projects that all incrementally may not look that exciting, but cumulatively they start to add up.

让我们不要忘记几年前。 我们讨论了2018年的发布,后半部分是如何'17,我们实际上将投资支持共享服务,我们应该在我们进入19世纪下半叶时开始获得好处。 而这正是我们所看到的。 但对斯科特来说,这只是其中之一。 有数百个不同的项目,所有这些项目都可能看起来不那么令人兴奋,但累积起来他们开始加起来。


Final question in terms of CapEx, most of these projects and most of that, in 2020, just kind of how to think about CapEx for this year?



Yes, I think CapEx, we initially set around 600 million for CapEx. I think it could be more than that. I think next year could be a little higher than this year. And all of these projects, we just approved at our board meeting a week or so ago, 350 million of capital to be spent over the next 18 to 24 months to add capacity across our beverage system and another 150 in our aerospace business to keep up with the growth in that business. So I think we could spend a little more than 600 this year, and I think we'll spend a little bit more than that next year.

是的,我认为资本支出,我们最初为资本支出约为6亿。 我认为它可能不止于此。 我认为明年可能会比今年略高一些。 所有这些项目,我们刚刚在大约一周前的董事会会议上批准,将在未来18到24个月内投入3.5亿资金用于增加我们饮料系统的产能,并在我们的航空航天业务中增加150个以保持同步 随着业务的增长。 所以我认为今年我们可以花费600多一点,而且我认为明年我们会花费更多。


Our next question is from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

我们的下一个问题来自Arun Viswanathan与RBC Capital Markets的合作。 请继续。

Arun Viswanathan

做得好。 谢谢。 刚刚谈到那种现金流和吸收,所以 - 乔提到的这三件事,显然营运资金必须是一大块。 库存看起来很高。 我想,我真的有两个问题。 实际上,从建筑库存中,本季度是否有某种吸收效益?

Just wanting to understand that the outlook statement of EPS growth of greater than 10% to 15%. It sounds like volume's potentially trending a little bit better than you thought. You also discussed contract renegotiation in the statement and the release, but you have experienced quite a bit of cost. So is it implicit in that statement that contract renegotiations and pricing improvements and mix is going to more than offset the logistics issues and the cost and that your inflation you're experiencing? Or is it a greater pivot to buybacks as well? Or maybe you can just sense what kind of goes of that segment.

只是想了解前景陈述的EPS增长率大于10%至15%。 这听起来像音量的潜在趋势比你想象的好一点。 您还在声明和发布中讨论了合同重新谈判,但您已经经历了相当多的成本。 因此,在合同重新谈判和定价改进及组合方面,合同重新谈判和价格合并是否会抵消物流问题和成本以及您正在经历的通货膨胀? 或者它也是回购的更大支点? 或者也许您可以只感知该细分市场的类型。


Well, qualitatively, and I'm not going to hash through all the numbers because I think we've in one way shape or form talked about them already. But number one, we've had a variety of headwinds that we said, we're going to dissipate, certainly, as we get into the back half this year, but more importantly, going into 2020. So that's a source a year-over-year improvement. We also have unit volume growth that is much stronger than we historically have seen and/or anticipated.
And the mix of that more specialty is a kicker on top of that. So that's a big data point relative to our historical 10% to 15%. You think about the growth and aerospace that we've been going it's been growing much stronger than we've historically have. There is other thing as well, but those and then you're talking about the new capital we're putting in and we're an EVA company, so we better darn well, we generating returns on that. So, you put all that together, and absence, just normal share repurchases, you can see your line of sight of why we feel bullish on the next few years.

好吧,从质量上来说,我不打算浏览所有数字,因为我认为我们已经以某种形式或形式谈论过它们了。但排名第一,我们已经遇到了各种各样的不利因素,当我们今年进入后半段时,我们肯定会消散,但更重要的是,进入2020年。所以这是一年的来源 - 年度改善。我们的单位数量增长比我们历史上看到和/或预期的要强得多。


Arun Viswanathan

做得好。 谢谢。 刚刚谈到那种现金流和吸收,所以 - 乔提到的这三件事,显然营运资金必须是一大块。 库存看起来很高。 我想,我真的有两个问题。 实际上,从建筑库存中,本季度是否有某种吸收效益?

Okay. And then just from another perspective, I'm just wondering South America, you guys experiencing very good growth there hasn't been some extra capital is coming there though. Any concerns that growth there could slowdown eventually and with new entrants and a little bit more capacity? Thanks.

好的。 然后从另一个角度来看,我只是想知道南美洲,你们经历了非常好的增长,但是没有一些额外的资金来到那里。 是否有任何担忧,那里的增长可能会最终放缓,新进入者和更多的产能? 谢谢。


Yes, we're probably less concerned about the new entrance just more concerned with the volatility of the region. But the reality is the movement and I think the things John, we've talked about this historically, but what you're seeing an accelerated growth rates in North America and in Europe is the sustainability impact. What you're seeing in South America, which is a real tailwind, and it should continue for some period of time obviously given the macro environment is remains somewhat healthy.
If it's a shift from returnable glass, by the largest incumbent to cans meaningfully and they're making significant filling investments to support that. They have last year or the last two to three years in that marketplace by premiumization of beer and all of that going into specialty aluminum packaging. And so they have made a conscious decision to move away from returnable glass.
And so that's why you're seeing these accelerated growth rates in that marketplace. And they're committed, as best we can sell to doing that for a long period of time. So we like the growth trajectory in that market in particular. And also further underpinning it over the last few years, we've actually seen very strong growth, but that was despite overall consumption of beverages to be down.
I can tell you years in the second quarter 2019, beer, total beer consumption, irrespective of what package type it was in, was up by 2% software and was also up by 2%. That's the first time in a long time, those have been positive. And so we had good growth underpinning with negative overall volume. And now it's turned positive, then you layer on with and so that's why we feel constructive over the next several years.





Arun Viswanathan

做得好。 谢谢。 刚刚谈到那种现金流和吸收,所以 - 乔提到的这三件事,显然营运资金必须是一大块。 库存看起来很高。 我想,我真的有两个问题。 实际上,从建筑库存中,本季度是否有某种吸收效益?

Okay. And last follow-up on free cash flow. Assuming that you do grow EPS in the 10% to 15% or above range, given that your investments look like increasing your CapEx outlook, would you expect slightly lower free cash flow growth? And how should we think about that?

好的。 最后一次关于自由现金流的跟进。 假设您的每股盈利增长率在10%至15%或以上,假设您的投资看起来像增加您的资本支出前景,您会预期自由现金流量会略微减少吗? 那我们该怎么想呢?


No, not necessarily because I think we'll get -- As Dan talk about, the projects that we're investing in and the mix of those projects gets better. And I think the earnings acceleration will offset some of the growth in capital over the next few years. So I don't necessarily seen free cash flow are going to be hit as we go forward.

不,不一定是因为我认为我们会得到 - 正如Dan谈到的那样,我们投资的项目以及这些项目的组合变得更好。 我认为盈利加速将抵消未来几年的部分资本增长。 因此,在我们前进的过程中,我不一定会看到自由现金流。

Dan Fisher

Yes and the other thing I'd point out is actually, cash flow from operations is going to be growing quite strong. And when you really think about free cash flow is a function of the cash you generate from running your business, less the maintenance CapEx, you need to support that business and then plus or minus growth capital and that growth capital could be M&A, it could be Greenfield investments as we talked about. So, we actually over the long-term that growth investment is a one-time type of thing, and so yes, in 2019 or 2020 or '21, we may have elevated CapEx, but it's one time growth CapEx that's going to accelerate the free cash flow from operations.

是的,而且我指出的另一件事实际上,来自运营的现金流将会变得非常强劲。 当你真正想到自由现金流是你运营业务所产生的现金的一个函数,而不是维护资本支出,你需要支持这个业务,然后加上或减去增长资本,增长资本可能是并购,它可以 我们谈到的是绿地投资。 因此,我们实际上长期认为增长投资是一次性的事情,所以是的,在2019年或2020年或者21年,我们可能已经提升了资本支出,但它是一次性的增长资本支出,它将加速 来自运营的自由现金流。


Our next question is from the line of Kyle White with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

我们的下一个问题来自凯尔怀特与德意志银行的合作。 请继续


Just curious if you guys, what kind of volume impact you saw from the weather conditions in the quarter? And then what have you seen in July, any impacts from kind of the heat waves that we're seeing?

只是好奇你们,你们从本季度的天气状况看到了什么样的体积影响? 然后你在七月看到了什么,我们看到的那种热浪的影响?

Dan Fisher

No issues in North America, I assume that's where the questions coming from, but we did see in the second quarter, kind of some dissipate about as good as our volumes were in Europe, the weather wasn't on our side and that is certainly turns so. But from a weather perspective, as long as it's not over 95 consistent, people are going to drink candy products. I mean, that's kind of the temperature range we usually see.

在北美没有问题,我认为这是问题的来源,但我们确实在第二季度看到,有些消散的情况与我们在欧洲的数量一样好,天气不在我们这边,这当然是肯定的 转过来。 但从天气的角度来看,只要它不超过95,人们就会喝糖果产品。 我的意思是,这是我们通常看到的那种温度范围。


And then standpoint in Europe, we did get qualitatively, the volumes were quite strong. But we do think that they were more muted than they otherwise would have been because of bad weather. You go into July it's actually got incredibly hot. So, it's almost too hot for people stay indoors, but having said that volumes continue along the growth pace that we've always talked about. So there's for different reasons, it really hasn't impacted it over the longer term, we're going to have short-term dislocations because weather good and bad.

然后在欧洲的立场,我们确实得到了质量,数量非常强劲。 但我们确实认为,由于恶劣的天气,它们比原来的更柔和。 你进入七月它真的变得非常热。 因此,对于人们呆在室内而言,这几乎是太热了,但是他们已经说过,我们一直在谈论的增长速度仍在继续。 所以出于不同的原因,它确实没有长期影响它,因为天气好坏,我们将会出现短期错位。


And then turning to aerospace continues to grow nicely. The won not booked backlog close to about 5 billion. Can you just provide some details on these backlogs and kind of the typical timeline that we should expect them to materialize into one contract and materialize into actual sales?

然后转向航空航天业继续发展良好。 韩元没有预订积压接近约50亿。 您能否提供一些有关这些积压的详细信息以及我们应该期望它们实现为一份合同并实现实际销售的典型时间表?


Yes, it's truly across the board when you look won not booked. We have things such as I'll just give you 2 book ends. We have on one hand, the shorter term in that is contracts we have one for specific satellites with specific customers in the classified arena that because the government didn't have a budget, they couldn't sign an agreement. Now that budget is behind us, it significantly improves the prospects over the near term that we will go on contract and that will move from one not booked into a funded backlog status.
On the other stream, we do all the sensors that are on the fuselage and wings of the F-35. That contract will go out to 2030 or 2040 in the various lots that we have produced. Some of them will move in the short-term to from one not booked to funded backlog. Others will stay out there for a number of years as these planes continue to be built. So those are just two extremes. And there's hundreds of programs in it that have similar characteristics within those parameters I just laid out.




The next question is from the line of Neel Kumar with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. The line of Neel Kumar with Morgan Stanley is now open and interactive. Please proceed with your question.

接下来的问题来自Neel Kumar与摩根士丹利的合作。 请继续。 Neel Kumar与摩根士丹利的合作现在是开放和互动的。 请继续你的问题。

Neel Kumar

Sorry, I was on mute. I just had another question on aluminum cups. Do you have a preliminary sense of what the receptivity of customers is to cups and aluminum versus plastic? And are there any other new revenue opportunities outside of beverage cans that you're considering?

对不起,我在静音。 我刚才有一个关于铝杯的问题。 您是否初步了解客户对杯子和铝与塑料的接受程度? 您正在考虑的饮料罐以外还有其他新的收入机会吗?


Maybe I'll take the first one. We've done a bunch of quantitative and qualitative research that says. This could be very -- there could be a lot of upside here. I think what we've seen at a high level that people see the experience of the container as much better than all the existing alternatives, they see a colder, they see a sturdier, they see a willingness to pay more as a result of that.
And so everything that we've seen says, yes, there could be a lot of interesting upside in here. And as it relates to other innovation innovations, we always have other innovations pretty consistently revolve around the markets in which we currently serve. And so this is for beverages. I would not anticipate us going into food, for example, which consciously made the decision to exit that, but we have a lot of things in the pipeline. Now, Dan, do you anything to add?

也许我会拿第一个。 我们已经完成了一系列定量和定性研究。 这可能非常 - 这里可能有很多好处。 我认为我们在高层看到人们看到集装箱的体验比现有的替代品更好,他们看到更冷,他们看到更坚固,他们看到愿意支付更多的费用。

所以我们所看到的一切都说,是的,这里可能会有很多有趣的好处。 而且,由于它与其他创新创新相关,我们始终围绕我们目前服务的市场始终如一地进行其他创新。 所以这是饮料。 例如,我不会指望我们进入食物市场,这有意识地决定退出,但我们有很多事情正在筹备中。 现在,丹,你有什么要补充的吗?

Dan Fisher

I would say, I mean, obviously, you're presenting this in kind of the entertainment space and food service space. And look, we are a 100 for 100 in terms of the percent of showing this cup to a potential customer and then wanting to place an order right now. We're turning down and we're allocating is what we're doing. But where you'll see this is entertainment venues, and you'll see the sports venues where there is a massive push to have a green facility.

我想说,我的意思是,显然,你在娱乐空间和食品服务领域展示了这一点。 看看,就向潜在客户展示这款杯子然后想立即下订单的百分比而言,我们是百分之100。 我们正在拒绝我们分配的是我们正在做的事情。 但是你会看到这里是娱乐场所,你会看到那里有大量推动绿色设施的体育场馆。

Neel Kumar

Very helpful.



It further helps leverage us on the college campuses, for example, because when college campuses in terms of sustainability, that is probably the greatest area, when you think about demographics, you think about people 18 to 25 years of age. So those are probably the, those that are most conscious about sustainability. And when college campuses talk about going plastic free, yes, they can convert their soda. Yes, they can convert your beer. Yes, they are starting to convert their water, but they never had an alternative from us in terms of costs. Now they do. And so that's what we've been talking about them using this as an opportunity to accelerate going plastic free that their customers being the students are asking for.

例如,它进一步帮助我们在大学校园中利用我们,因为当大学校园在可持续性方面,这可能是最大的领域,当你考虑人口统计学时,你会想到18到25岁的人。 那些可能是那些最关注可持续性的人。 当大学校园谈论无塑料时,是的,他们可以转换自己的苏打水。 是的,他们可以转换你的啤酒。 是的,他们开始转换他们的水,但他们在成本方面从未有过我们的替代品。 现在他们做了。 因此,我们一直在谈论他们,以此为契机,加速他们的客户为学生所要求的免费塑料。

Neel Kumar

Great. That makes sense. And I was just wondering if you can also update us on how sustainability conversations with customers have been progressing aerosol. I recall you mentioned those conversations started surfacing in the space in the first quarter of this year. So any update there will be helpful.

非常好。 那讲得通。 我只是想知道您是否还可以向我们介绍与客户进行可持续性对话的过程。 我记得你提到过今年第一季度这些对话开始浮现在这个空间。 所以任何更新都会有所帮助。


Yes, as I said in the first quarter and it kind of continues, there is discussion but it's further behind the beverage category. I think sustainability and recycling in the personal care space is more and more difficult. They have many more resins. They have many more colors within those resins. And so, as they try and think about how they're going to deliver their products in a sustainable world, it's just taking longer, it's much -- I won't say easier, but you can see a have a much more clear line of sign when you're talking beverages, and you see what you need to do. I think it's a little bit more challenging when you get to the aerosol side, but I still think there's great potential. It's just we cannot point to you right now any specifics like we can in the beverage. Any specifics in the aerosol sides that we said that is a direct result of sustainability.

是的,正如我在第一季度所说的那样,这种情况仍在继续,但仍有讨论,但它仍然落后于饮料类别。 我认为个人护理领域的可持续性和回收利用越来越困难。 他们有更多的树脂。 它们在这些树脂中有更多颜色。 因此,当他们尝试思考如何在可持续发展的世界中提供产品时,它只需要更长时间,更多 - 我不会说更容易,但你可以看到一个更清晰的线条 你在谈论饮料时的标志,你看到你需要做什么。 当你到达气溶胶方面时,我觉得这有点挑战,但我仍然认为它有很大的潜力。 这只是我们现在不能指出你在饮料中的任何细节。 我们所说的气溶胶方面的任何细节都是可持续性的直接结果。

Neel Kumar

Okay, and then just lastly. With specialty can growth of 30% and global volume growth of 5%, your portfolio make is about 43% seems to imply that traditional can volumes came down during the quarter. Is that generally a fair characterization that all the growth came in specialty cans?

好的,然后就是最后一次。 随着专业可以增长30%和全球销量增长5%,您的投资组合约为43%似乎意味着传统罐头数量在本季度下降。 这通常是一个公平的特征,所有增长都来自特种罐吗?

Dan Fisher

Yes, overwhelmingly. I mean, relatively flat, some slight decline especially in EMEA and Asia contributed to that, but almost overwhelmingly all the growth came from specialty and that's what you, that's what was reflected in that mix.

是的,压倒性的。 我的意思是,相对持平,略有下降,特别是在欧洲,中东和非洲和亚洲的贡献,但几乎绝大部分增长来自专业,这就是你,这就是在这种组合中反映出来的。


Next question is from the line of Brian Maguire with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

接下来的问题来自Brian Maguire与Goldman Sachs的合作。 请继续

Brian Maguire

Good morning everyone. John, back at the Investor Day, simply a long time ago now back in October. You've talked about just one of the challenges in adoption of the cans historically was just the difference in the price point at the retail level between the beverage bottles in PET for example versus aluminum cans. Just wondering, as you've seen this take off in growth, how you think customers are getting around that? And presumably input costs are up, you're doing an admirable job of renegotiating contracts to capture the value you guys create. Do you see customers being able to kind of price appropriately to maintain or improve margins on cans? And just a general kind of how do you see the growth and specialty helping customers with that price conversation?

大家,早安。 约翰回到了投资者日,很久以前就已经回到了十月。 你曾经谈到过采用罐头的挑战之一,只是PET瓶中饮料瓶与铝罐之间零售价格的差异。 只是想知道,正如你已经看到这种增长的起飞,你认为客户如何解决这个问题? 而且可能是投入成本上升,你正在做一个令人钦佩的工作,重新谈判合同,以捕捉你们创造的价值。 您是否认为客户能够适当地定价以维持或提高罐头的利润? 只是一般情况下,您如何看待增长和专业帮助客户进行价格对话?

Dan Fisher

This is Dan. Good question. I think this lends itself to, when I think when John describing this. He's really talking about kind of core brands shifting out of high margin packaging, and it was established, because higher retail prices as they put on those packages and plastic. The growth that we're seeing is coming in specialty packages, new products. Those are still being launched by the large CPG companies. And they're being launched at a far greater rate. And I think we've been touched on it's basically 2x, the amount of new product launches in both North America and parts of Western Europe that are going into cans versus the historical rate of about 35%.
Those products are -- they're able to garner a higher price point, which is -- has not been much of a conversation because they are in some of these emerging categories like fitness energy, spiked seltzers. So, they're able to step into cans with new products at really nice margins. And although they probably won't say this, they won't say it publicly. They also don't want to compound an issue in their supply chain by putting more plastic into that supply chain. And that's why we're inferring there's absolutely a correlation to sustainability.


这些产品是 - 他们能够获得更高的价格点,这是 - 并没有太多的谈话,因为他们在一些新兴的类别,如健身能量,加标选择器。因此,他们能够以非常好的利润进入罐装新产品。虽然他们可能不会这么说,但他们不会公开表达。他们也不希望通过在供应链中加入更多的塑料来解决供应链中的问题。这就是我们推断与可持续发展绝对相关的原因。


And the only thing I'd add on top of that is even with the existing grants, which I was specifically talking about. Dan's absolutely right. That's why especially growth is going so much. But let's not forget, there's many of our existing brands, they have put packaging and whether it's a 7.5 ounce here in North America or 250 ml or 150 ml in Europe. And they've been able to ride that price curve up to reduce and/or eliminate the retail price per fluid ounce delta between their plastic offerings and their specialty can offerings.

我唯一要补充的就是现有的补助金,我特别谈到的。 丹绝对是对的。 这就是为什么特别是增长如此之多。 但是,我们不要忘记,我们现有的许多品牌都有包装,无论是北美的7.5盎司还是欧洲的250毫升或150毫升。 他们已经能够通过价格曲线来降低和/或消除塑料产品和特种产品之间每液体盎司三角洲的零售价格。

Brian Maguire

And your comments just about the forward look on can opportunity to, maybe take some share from other substrates in those traditional markets. Are we at the point where the concerns around customer perception on sustainability overwhelm more challenging retail price point or the fact that cans costs more than plastic? You mentioned you haven't seen much benefit today from such substitution, but the forward look sounded positive there. Are we just seeing your inner conversations with customers that really sustainability is trumping economics in these new decisions?

而你对前瞻性观点的评论可以提供机会,也许可以从这些传统市场的其他基础中获得一些份额。 我们是否处于对客户对可持续性的看法的担忧压倒了更具挑战性的零售价格点或者罐头比塑料成本更高的事实? 你提到你今天没有从这样的替换中看到太多的好处,但是那里的前瞻性看起来是积极的。 我们是否只是看到您与客户的内心对话,真正的可持续发展在这些新决策中胜过经济学?


They won't necessarily say that directly, but what we do know is the investments in cans going lines are happening at a massively accelerated rate versus historical norms. And we also know that some of our major customers are putting in a lot more cans filling capacity over the next two years. So, the combination of those two would suggest that there's absolutely contemplation that they need to get out ahead of this for a potential move whether its regulation or they're willing to take a slight margin dilution by moving into aluminum. I think there's -- in addition to all, but I think there's a recognition of the consumers requiring it that's the most important thing.

他们不一定会直接说出来,但我们所知道的是,对于罐头线的投资正在以大幅加速的速度发生,而不是历史规范。 而且我们也知道,我们的一些主要客户在未来两年内会增加更多的罐装容量。 因此,这两者的结合表明他们绝对需要在此之前摆脱这种潜在的行动,无论其监管还是他们愿意通过转向铝进行轻微的利润稀释。 我认为还有 - 除了所有,但我认为消费者要求它是最重要的事情。


So the final question is from the line of Chip Dillon with Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead.

所以最后的问题来自Chip Dillon与Vertical Research Partners的合作。 请继续。

Chip Dillon

Yes, thanks for taking my question. I just had a quick one on the cup introduction that you're going to roll out. Obviously, the water bottle is very similar to an aluminum beverage can for beer, let's say, but the cup there is different concept, and I just didn't know if you were able to use similar machinery or if you had to go out and either put something together on your own or buy a different type of technology or set of equipment to make aluminum cups.

是的,谢谢你回答我的问题。 我刚刚在杯子介绍上快速推出了一款你要推出的产品。 显然,水瓶非常类似于用于啤酒的铝制饮料罐,但是杯子有不同的概念,我只是不知道你是否能够使用类似的机器或者如果你不得不外出 要么自己把东西放在一起,要么购买不同类型的技术或设备来制作铝杯。


Yes, great question. What I'd say is there's parts of it's similar but a good chunk of it is very different. This has been in development for nearly seven years within Ball. And we think there's a lot of proprietary to this, that we'd rather not disclose. But, it's very easy to make cups when you're banging in about 100 or 200 per minutes, but the key is to do it at scale to get to a price point that actually opens up the market. We think we've done that and that's why we started with a pilot. We wanted to test it with three or four weeks in the pilot. Things are working well with brand new technology in parts of it. And so, I think it's a -- and that's what gives us a lot of hope, but it is it's similar but different than making a beverage can.

是的,很好的问题。 我要说的是它的部分内容相似,但它的很大一部分是非常不同的。 这已经在Ball内开发了近七年。 我们认为这有很多专有权,我们宁愿不披露。 但是,当你每分钟敲打100或200时,制作杯子非常容易,但关键是要大规模地制作杯子以达到实际开放市场的价格点。 我们认为我们已经做到了,这就是我们开始试用飞机的原因。 我们想在飞行员中测试三到四周。 部分内容与全新技术相关。 因此,我认为这是一个 - 而这正是给我们带来很多希望的东西,但它与制作饮料罐头相似但不同。


Okay, Lila. Well, thank you very much for everyone's participation, and we look forward to a great second half of 2019 and as we go forward. Thank you all for your support.

好的,丽拉。 好的,非常感谢大家的参与,我们期待着2019年下半年的伟大成就。 谢谢大家的支持。


That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you all for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line.

这确实结束了今天的电话会议。 我们感谢大家的参与,并要求您断开线路。


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