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PACCAR Inc (NASDAQ:PCAR) Q2 2019 Results Earnings Conference Call July 23, 2019 12:00 PM ET
Ken Hastings - Director of Investor Relations
Preston Feight - Chief Executive Officer
Harrie Schippers - President and Chief Financial Officer
Michael Barkley - Senior Vice President and Controller
- Ken Hastings - 投资者关系总监
- Preston Feight - 首席执行官
- Harrie Schippers - 总裁兼首席财务官
- Michael Barkley - 高级副总裁兼财务总监
Stephen Volkmann - Jefferies
Andrew Casey - Wells Fargo Securities
Joel Tiss - BMO
Jerry Revich - Goldman Sachs
Ann Duignan - JPMorgan
David Leiker - Baird
Steven Fisher - UBS
Seth Weber - RBC Capital Markets
Ross Gilardi - Bank of America
Jamie Cook - Credit Suisse
Courtney Yakavonis - Morgan Stanley
Jeff Kauffman - Loop Capital Markets
Joe O'Dea - Vertical Research
Neil Frohnapple - Buckingham Research
Robert Wertheimer - Melius
Rob Salmon - Wolfe Research
David Raso - Evercore
- 斯蒂芬沃克曼 - 杰弗里斯
- 安德鲁凯西 - 富国银行证券
- Joel Tiss - BMO
- Jerry Revich - 高盛
- Ann Duignan - 摩根大通
- 大卫莱克 - 贝尔德
- 史蒂芬费舍尔 - 瑞银
- 塞思韦伯 - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场
- Ross Gilardi - 美国银行
- 杰米库克 - 瑞士信贷
- Courtney Yakavonis - 摩根士丹利
- Jeff Kauffman - Loop Capital Markets
- Joe O'Dea - 垂直研究
- Neil Frohnapple - 白金汉研究
- Robert Wertheimer - Melius
- Rob Salmon - 沃尔夫研究
- David Raso - Evercore
Good morning and welcome to PACCAR Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded and if anyone has an objection they should disconnect at this time.
I would now like to introduce Mr. Ken Hastings PACCAR's Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Hastings, please go ahead.
早上好，欢迎参加PACCAR 2019年第二季度收益电话会议。 [操作员说明]今天正在记录电话，如果有人有异议，他们此时应该断开连接。
Good morning. We would like to welcome those listening by phone and those on the webcast. My name is Ken Hastings PACCAR's' Director of Investor Relations. And joining me this morning are Preston Feight, Chief Executive Officer; Harrie Schippers, President and Chief Financial Officer; and Michael Barkley, Senior Vice President and Controller. As with prior conference calls we ask that any members of the media on the line participate in a listen-only mode.
Certain information presented today will be forward-looking and involve risks and uncertainties including general economic and competitive conditions that may affect expected results. For additional information please see our SEC filings in the Investor Relations page of paccar.com.
I would now like to introduce Preston Feight.
早上好。 我们欢迎那些通过电话和网络直播的人倾听。 我的名字是Ken Hastings PACCAR的“投资者关系总监”。 今天早上和我一起的是Preston Feight，首席执行官; Harrie Schippers，总裁兼首席财务官; 和高级副总裁兼财务总监Michael Barkley。 与之前的电话会议一样，我们要求线路上的任何媒体成员都参与只听模式。
Good morning. Harrie Schippers, Michael Barkley and I will update you on PACCAR's excellent second quarter results and business highlights. First and foremost, I am very proud of our exceptional employees. We're passionate about providing our customers, the highest quality, highest performing trucks and services in the world.
I also want to thank those analysts who participated in our investor conference in New York in May. The PACCAR team appreciated the opportunity to provide an update on our business.
PACCAR achieved record quarterly sales and financial services revenues of $6.6 billion and excellent net income of $620 million resulting in a 9.3% after tax return on revenues.
PACCAR Parts generated record revenues of over $1 billion and record pretax profits of $211 million. Parts revenues increased 6% and profits grew 8% compared to the second quarter of last year.
PACCAR achieved robust Truck, Parts and Other gross margins of 14.8%, driven by record truck deliveries, aftermarket parts demand and strong operational performance. PACCAR delivered a record 52,300 trucks during the second quarter, 13% higher than the second quarter of last year. This reflects increased build in North America, partially offset by lower build in Europe.
The US and Canadian Class 8 industry backlog remains high. Kenworth and Peterbilt’s 2019 production schedules are substantially full with customers ordering trucks for delivery in the first half of next year.
In Europe, DAF has achieved an excellent year-to-date market share of 16.7% and the DAF XF was honored as the fleet truck of the year in the UK. PACCAR continues to provide excellent annual operating margins resulting in strong operating cash flow for distribution to shareholders and for reinvestment in future growth.
PACCAR declared second quarter dividends of $0.32 per share and first half dividends of $0.64 per share. First half dividends were 21% higher than dividends declared in the same period last year. The company has delivered annual dividends in the range of 45% to 55% of net income for many years and has paid a dividend every year since 1941.
PACCAR has increased its quarterly dividend an average of 11% per year during the last 20 years. We repurchased 345,000 shares of stock during the second quarter with a $484 million remaining in the current Board of Directors authorization.
PACCAR is investing in future growth with capital expenditures of $675 million to $725 million and R&D expenses of $320 million to $340 million this year. These investments will fund enhanced aerodynamic truck models, integrated powertrains, zero emissions electric and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, advanced driver assistance systems and truck connectivity.
We are also enhancing our manufacturing and distribution facilities. At the Kenworth Chillicothe, Ohio truck factory we added a new robotic cab build cell and are constructing a new state-of-the-art paint facility, which will lower operating costs, enhance quality and increase capacity.
早上好。 Harrie Schippers，Michael Barkley和我将向您介绍PACCAR出色的第二季度业绩和业务亮点。首先，我为我们优秀的员工感到自豪。我们热衷于为我们的客户提供世界上最高质量，最高性能的卡车和服务。
在欧洲，DAF在年初至今的市场份额达到了16.7％，DAF XF被评为英国年度车队卡车。 PACCAR继续提供卓越的年度营业利润率，从而实现强劲的经营现金流，以便分配给股东并对未来的增长进行再投资。
To meet increased customer demand for the popular PACCAR MX engine, we’re adding machining and assembly equipment in the Columbus, Mississippi engine plant.
We recently opened two global software R&D centers, one in Kirkland, Washington and one in the Eindhoven, in The Netherlands. These centers will accelerate the development of embedded vehicle software and PACCAR connected vehicle solutions for our customers.
In the third quarter, truck delivery will be higher in North America due to higher build rates and lower in Europe, reflecting the normal three week summer shutdown. Global deliveries will be 5% to 7% higher than the third quarter of last year.
We forecast third quarter gross margins for Truck, Parts and Other to remain strong and be in a range of 14.5% to 15%. 2019 will be another outstanding year for the company.
Harrie Schippers will now provide an update on truck markets, PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services.
Thanks, Preston. US economy is in good shape, helped by a strong job markets, growing wages and increased business investment. Freight tonnage has grown a healthy 4.4% year-to-date. We’ve raised our estimate of US and Canadian Class 8 truck industry retail sales to a range of 300,000 to 320,000 vehicles this year. We’re in a period of robust customer demand, demonstrated by the historically high backlog, truck production levels and retail sales.
The US and Canada Class 8 backlog was 188,000 trucks at the end of June. Kenworth and Peterbilt’s backlog represented 36% of the industry. We are raising our European above 16 tonne market projection to a range of 300,000 to 320,000 vehicles this year. The European economies are growing at a lower rate than last year.
PACCAR delivered record first half net income of $1.25 billion. PACCAR Parts achieved record first half revenues of $2.30 billion [ph] and record pre-tax profits of $418 million. PACCAR has steadily increased its truck and engine market shares over the years, resulting in a greater number of PACCAR trucks and engines in operation. This large and growing Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF truck part has driven 8% annual PACCAR Parts revenue growth over the last 15 years.
This generates consistent higher margin profitability in all phases of the business cycle. We continue to invest in the parts business with new parts distribution centers under construction in Las Vegas, Nevada and Ponta Grossa, Brazil. We expect parts sales to grow 5% to 7% for the full year 2019.
PACCAR Financial Services earned second quarter pretax income of $18 million, 11% higher than the second quarter last year. The PACCAR Financial portfolio performed well. This year, PACCAR Financial will open used truck centers in Prague, Czech Republic and Denton, Texas to support solid customer demand for DAF, Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks.
One of PACCAR's greatest assets does not appear on the balance sheet. I am referring to the independent financially strong Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF dealers, who operate more than 2200 sales, service and TRP store locations worldwide.
Our dealers reflect the industry leading quality and premium truck brand image of Kenworth, Peterbilt and DAF trucks. We’re proud of our global dealer network. They are the best in the industry.
Thank you. We would be pleased to answer your questions.
PACCAR上半年净收入达到创纪录的12.5亿美元。 PACCAR Parts上半年收入达到创纪录的23亿美元[ph]，创纪录的税前利润为4.18亿美元。 PACCAR多年来稳步增加其卡车和发动机市场份额，导致更多的PACCAR卡车和发动机投入运行。这个庞大且不断增长的Kenworth，Peterbilt和DAF卡车部件在过去15年中每年带动了8％的PACCAR零件收入增长。
PACCAR Financial Services获得第二季度税前收入1800万美元，比去年第二季度增长11％。 PACCAR金融投资组合表现良好。今年，PACCAR Financial将在捷克共和国布拉格和德克萨斯州丹顿开设二手卡车中心，以满足客户对DAF，Peterbilt和Kenworth卡车的强劲需求。
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Your line is now open.
[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Stephen Volkmann和Jefferies。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hi. Good morning, everybody.
Harrie, I wonder if I could get you to make a few more comments about some of your kind of end market visibility. And what I'm thinking about is obviously, you said you're sort of taking orders for the first half of 2020, but of course the overall order rate has come down quite a bit.
And I'm curious just kind of what you're hearing from customers in seeing in your order trends relative to demand in 2020? Do you think things tick up again as we get into the fall selling season? Or are you hearing kind of caution because freight rates have come down. Just kind of some thoughts about the quality of the 2020 order?
而且我很好奇您在2020年看到的相对于需求的订单趋势时客户听到了什么？ 当我们进入秋季销售季节时，你认为事情会再次上升吗？ 或者您是否因为运费下降而听到了谨慎的态度。 对2020年订单的质量有何看法？
So if you look at the backlog for North America today, we’re in really good shape. And like Preston said, we’re increasing build rates in North America. Europe, the backlog is very normal and our production levels are in line with the orders and the backlog in the market as we see it today.
因此，如果你看看今天北美的积压，我们的状况非常好。 和普雷斯顿一样，我们正在提高北美的建筑费率。 欧洲，积压是非常正常的，我们的生产水平与我们今天看到的订单和市场积压一致。
Okay. So do you have any kind of preliminary thoughts about what 2020 might look like? Obviously, the market is sort of primed for a big decline?
好的。 那么你对2020年的样子有什么初步想法吗？ 显然，市场有点大幅下跌？
We typically comment on 2020 once we get closer to it, so that's probably something for the next call.
All right. I figure it might be worth a try. Can I sneak one more in on just kind of what you’re seeing relative to pricing in the new truck environment?
行。 我觉得值得一试。 我可以再谈谈你所看到的与新卡车环境中的定价有关的内容吗？
Yes. As we look at the pricing realization in trucks, in the second quarter we saw I'm going to say a couple of percent, price realization largely offset by costs. And so that's kind of in balance with each other.
是。 当我们看到卡车的定价实现时，在第二季度，我们看到我会说几个百分点，价格实现在很大程度上被成本所抵消。 所以这是彼此平衡的。
Okay. Great. Thank you very much.
好的。 大。 非常感谢你。
Our next question comes from Andrew Casey with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now open.
Thanks a lot. Good morning as well.
I have a question on the shipments. It went up about 1.5% in Q2 from Q1. It's a little different than the outlook on the short term that you gave last quarter of 2% to 4%. Was the entire difference between actual and predicted driven by Europe?
And if so, I guess, to piggyback on Steve’s question, can you describe what your European order intake maybe was compared to last year? And then, also, some color around the overall market development.
我对货物有疑问。 它从第一季度开始上涨约1.5％。 与上个季度2％至4％的短期前景略有不同。 欧洲驱动的实际和预测之间的完全差异是什么？
Yes. So, just look at the - start at the highest level, although, we did see growth in North America this year and that was, as we've said, offset a little bit by what we experienced in Europe. We have really good balance here, right now, between our order intake and our build rates. So we've got that set up really well. And in fact, if you look at the first half market share results, we had 16.7%, which is above last year's record 16.6%. So that's set up very nicely for us right now. And we kind of see that order intake, as I said, matching into what we are doing with build right now.
是。 所以，只看一下 - 从最高层开始，尽管如此，我们确实看到了今年北美的增长，正如我们所说的那样，我们在欧洲的经历略微抵消了一点。 我们现在订单量和构建率之间的平衡非常好。 所以我们的设置非常好。 事实上，如果你看一下上半年的市场份额结果，我们有16.7％，高于去年创纪录的16.6％。 所以这对我们来说非常好。 我们有点看到，正如我所说的那样，订单收入与我们现在正在进行的构建相匹配。
Okay. Thank you. And then on the – just specifically looking at the truck segment margin and it pretty much seemed to be in line with what you were looking for. But flattish, up maybe 10 basis points year-over-year and then down from Q1, despite higher revenue in both cases.
Can you elaborate now that the quarter is done in terms of what some of the headwinds might have been that limited the segment’s ability to realize, maybe, some the better margin leverage on that revenue growth?
好的。 谢谢。 然后在 - 只是专门看卡车部分边缘，它几乎似乎符合你的要求。 尽管两个案例的收入都有所增加，但从第一季度开始，可能会比去年同期上升10个基点。
Sure. I think if you look at – if you start with – it was 14.8% in the overall gross margin, it feels very strong. So when we look at it from a year-over-year standpoint, truck has been able to hold onto that. I think, the reason it doesn't see significant movement up is because it's already operating at a very high level. So we’re at a very efficient point in the gross margins.
And then, I think if you just talked about it a little bit from a sequential standpoint, only difference between Q1 and Q2 has to do with really the customer mix that's happened between quarter one and quarter two.
当然。 我想如果你看一下 - 如果你开始 - 总体毛利率为14.8％，感觉非常强劲。 因此，当我们从一年多来的观点来看，卡车已经能够坚持下去。 我认为，它没有看到显着上升的原因是因为它已经在非常高的水平上运行。 因此，我们在毛利率方面处于非常有效的地位。
Okay. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Joel Tiss with BMO. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Joel Tiss和BMO。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hey, guys. How’s it going?
Really good. How's it going for you?
All right. I wondered, just to try to be Steve for a second here. Can you talk about second half production instead of just third quarter? And the production schedules and just sort of give us a little bit of an idea, so maybe we can have a small window into the fourth quarter.
行。 我想知道，只是想在这里成为史蒂夫一秒钟。 你能谈谈下半年的生产而不仅仅是第三季度吗？ 而制作时间表只是给我们一些想法，所以也许我们可以在第四季度进入一个小窗口。
Well, we – if I try to talk about it in terms of second half, we have, again, North America going up in the second half. And then, Europe, we think is stable where we got it right now. So we feel like those are balanced for what we would expect to see through the second half.
好吧，我们 - 如果我试着用下半年谈论它，我们再次，北美在下半年上升。 然后，欧洲，我们认为在我们现在得到它的地方是稳定的。 所以我们觉得这些都是我们期望在下半年看到的平衡。
Okay. And then beyond the customer mix, it sounded like in North America, but maybe I am reading too much into that. Is there any negative margin? The incremental margins at 10%, you’ve been kind of running 12% or 13%, is there any – because Latin America was so strong, is that a factor in there or not at all?
好的。 然后超出了客户组合，它听起来像在北美，但也许我正在阅读太多。 是否存在负利润？ 增量利润为10％，你有点运行12％或13％，有没有 - 因为拉丁美洲是如此强大，这是一个因素在那里或根本没有？
Latin America is a small percentage of the business still, so it really didn't have that much weeding factor to us. I mean, there is a little bit of benefit to it, but there's not a lot.
Okay. And then just last, the receivable’s up 30%. Is there any color you can add to that? Why is that so high?
好的。 然后就在最后，应收账款增加了30％。 你可以添加任何颜色吗？ 为什么这么高？
Increasing in the build rates has been the primary driver of that.
Okay. So it just seems like it's up a lot more than builds. Okay. Thank you very much.
好的。 所以它看起来比构建更多。 好的。 非常感谢你。
Our next question comes from the line of Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
我们的下一个问题来自Jerry Revich与Goldman Sachs的合作。 你的线是开放的。
Yes, hi. Good morning and good afternoon, everyone.
Good morning and good afternoon.
I am wondering if you could expand on your comments on the European production adjustment that you took in the quarter that could match income in order rates. When was that production adjustment take place? And as we think about the third quarter, normal seasonality would have production down 5% to 10% sequentially for you in Europe.
So are we on at the right production point entering the third quarter where we should see that normal seasonality? Or is production coming down sequentially more than that normal 5% to 10% rate?
我想知道您是否可以扩展您对本季度可能与订单收入相匹配的欧洲生产调整的评论。 什么时候进行生产调整？ 当我们考虑第三季度时，正常的季节性将使您在欧洲的产量连续下降5％至10％。
So the adjustments we made were just in the second quarter and again they happened throughout the second quarter and they still delivered this excellent market share that we saw.
From the third quarter looking forward, we do have a normal summer shutdown, which is a three week summer shutdown, so there is an overall effect on the market. But from a daily build rate standpoint we’re in a good position.
Okay. And in North America, we obviously know that you folks are build-to-order and when market are in flex, we typically see production adjustments from you folks first, so when you folks are raising build rates sequentially 3Q versus 2Q, does that imply that you’ve had a full backlog scrub and you’re comfortable with the level of dealer inventories?
Can you just confirm that point and that expected deliveries for 3Q have firm customer specifications through them as opposed to what are some typical dealer specs?
好的。 而在北美，我们显然知道你们是按订单生产的，当市场处于灵活状态时，我们通常会首先看到你们人们的生产调整，所以当你们大家按顺序提高3Q的构建率时，这是否意味着 你有一个完整的积压磨砂，你对经销商库存的水平感到满意吗？
I think you did a really nice job of it. I think we actually do, do backlogs to make sure we have clean orders in there and we do build-to-order. And as we look through that and we see that there is still very strong order backlog. And Harrie said that 36% of the backlog for the industry is ours.
And so we want to make sure that we get the trucks to the customers. They need the trucks to run the businesses. And so we’re in a manner of building as quickly as we can for them.
我觉得你做得很好。 我认为我们确实这样做，做积压工作以确保我们在那里有清洁订单，并且我们按订单生产。 当我们仔细研究时，我们发现订单积压仍然非常强劲。 哈里表示，该行业36％的积压是我们的。
因此，我们希望确保将卡车运送给客户。 他们需要卡车来经营这些业务。 因此，我们正以尽可能快的速度为他们建设。
And in terms of the level of dealer inventories, can you just calibrate outside of the industry statistics that we have. You mentioned a backlog were 36% of backlog what about out of inventories?
So if you think of the inventory numbers for the industry they're at 2.8 months and for PACCAR in North America it's 2.3. So we have our inventory in a very good position with our dealers.
Okay. All right. Thank you.
好的。 行。 谢谢。
Our next question comes from the line of Ann Duignan with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Ann Duignan与JPMorgan的合作。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hi, everybody. I'd like to circle back to Europe, I mean registrations year-to-date are up closer to 10% and your deliveries are basically flat, maybe up slightly year-to-date. Can you talk about the discrepancy, have we seen a pull forward of registrations ahead of the mid-year tachograph requirement? Or is there anything unusual going on in the marketplace versus how you are choosing to deliver?
大家好。 我想回到欧洲，我的意思是年初至今的注册量接近10％，而且您的交付基本持平，可能在今年年初略有上升。 您能否谈谈这种差异，我们是否看到在年中行驶记录仪要求之前提前注册？ 或者市场上有什么不寻常的事情与您选择交付的方式有什么不同？
I think you actually nailed it Ann. I think that remote tachograph is probably the biggest impact on what's put forward the orders in front of June 15th. And so that's what we saw. And we still expect the market in the 300,000 to 320,000 truck range. And we should be able to have really excellent market share and with our build rates from the first half and second half for that.
我想你确实把它钉在了安。 我认为远程行车记录仪可能是对6月15日之前提出订单的最大影响。 这就是我们所看到的。 而且我们仍然预计市场将在30万到32万辆之间。 而且我们应该能够拥有非常出色的市场份额以及上半年和下半年的建造率。
And just as a follow-up to that again on Europe, given the announcement today and the new leadership in the UK, does that raise or reaccelerate the concerns on Brexit and the impact that that could have on freight and just the whole industry as we get closer to the end of the year? What are you hearing over there in terms of now it sounds like it's a little bit more definitive?
正如对欧洲的再次跟进一样，鉴于今天的公告和英国的新领导层，这是否会引发或重新加速对英国退欧的担忧以及可能对货运和整个行业产生的影响 越来越接近年底？ 你现在听到的是什么，听起来它有点更明确？
Yes. So one of the nice things for us is we are the market leader in the UK. We have a great job all around Europe and our share is up in Europe and up in the UK also specifically. So as we look at what might happen with Brexit, we have a great advantage in that we do manufacture all our truck models for the UK, in the U.K.
So I don't know what the outcomes will be, but PACCAR is really well positioned with our manufacturing based in Europe to take advantage of it either way it goes.
是。 因此，对我们来说，最好的事情之一是我们是英国的市场领导者。 我们在欧洲各地都有一份出色的工作，我们的份额在欧洲也有所提升，特别是在英国。 因此，当我们看看英国退欧可能会发生什么时，我们的优势在于我们在英国制造所有卡车车型，在英国。
I meant more broadly what impact it might have on just freight and the whole European economy, any comments on that?
Yes, I don't think we know that answer any better than anybody else. I would say that we've been pleasantly surprised with how the UK has performed in the first half of the year. There have been strong customer demand in the first half and that's been great.
是的，我认为我们不比其他任何人更了解答案。 我会说，我们对英国今年上半年的表现感到惊喜。 上半年客户需求强劲，而且非常好。
Okay. Thank you. I’ll get back in line. I appreciate it.
好的。 谢谢。 我会回来的。 我很感激。
Our next question comes from David Leiker with Baird. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自David Leiker和Baird。 你的生产线现已开放。
Good morning, everyone.
I wanted to talk about this kind of triangle effect between orders, backlog, inventory if you can throw counsels in there. Now what we’re going through here in North America is while the order rates have fallen, the backlogs have remained elevated.
And I'm not sure we’ve ever gotten through a period of falling orders where backlogs remained elevated. I am wondering if that may change a little bit of the economics, the earnings you might see as these lower order rates flow through the numbers?
I think one thing you just need to keep in mind is the bigger picture what happened last year with 458,000 industry orders last year. So that’s a big number and it takes a while for that to normalize through things.
But it's not going to have an effect on our financial performance. We've got great financial performance and our dealers are doing really well and our customers love the trucks. And so, those things continue to work well and the results will be solid.
但它不会对我们的财务业绩产生影响。 我们有很好的财务业绩，我们的经销商做得很好，我们的客户喜欢卡车。 因此，这些事情继续运作良好，结果将是坚实的。
Great. And just I'm going to take on Europe also. Any particular markets or areas over there that you feel more worried than others? I mean, a lot of those - a lot of your customers from those markets are exporting out of Europe and to other parts of the world as well?
非常好。 而且我也要接受欧洲。 你觉得哪个特定的市场或地区比其他人更担心？ 我的意思是，很多那些 - 来自这些市场的很多客户都出口到欧洲以外的世界其他地方？
I think that Europe has done really well this year for us. I mean, obviously, we have the market range of 300,000 to 320,000 trucks and us gaining share. So this would be the fourth year in a row about 300,000, if it stays like this and that's a fantastic market size.
And the DAF team, all the employees, the teams, the dealers are doing a great job of growing the business. I think, the customers love the trucks and the fuel economy is outstanding. It's working really well.
我认为欧洲今年为我们做得非常好。 我的意思是，显然，我们拥有30万到320,000辆卡车的市场范围，我们获得了份额。 所以这将是连续第四年约300,000，如果它保持这样，这是一个梦幻般的市场规模。
DAF团队，所有员工，团队，经销商在发展业务方面做得很好。 我认为，客户喜欢卡车，燃油经济性非常出色。 它工作得很好。
Okay. Great. Thank you.
好的。 大。 谢谢。
Our next question comes from Steven Fisher with UBS. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自瑞银的Steven Fisher。 你的生产线现已开放。
Thanks. Good afternoon and good morning.
Good afternoon and good morning.
How do the orders that you guys have taken for 2020 compare to the level of what you typically take in at this time of the year for the following year? I assume it's got to be much higher. And if that's so, I guess why are - I guess going back to Steve Volkmann's question, why are customers rushing to place orders if freight fundamentals are softening?
你们在2020年的订单与下一年的这个时候通常的收入水平相比如何？ 我认为它必须要高得多。 如果是这样，我想为什么 - 我想回到Steve Volkmann的问题，如果货运基本面疲软，为什么客户急于下订单？
Well, I would say it this way. As I'd say, we probably just get to the first part of your question, we do see order intake for 2020 higher than we typically see it. That’s in large part because in a different market, you might see that there's a lot more activities surrounded about filling 3Q and 4Q of the current year you’re in. But since that's substantially full, there is interest in 2020. And so that's kind of just I think where people’s energies go to.
好吧，我会这样说。 正如我所说，我们可能只是谈到问题的第一部分，我们确实看到2020年的订单量比我们通常看到的要高。 这在很大程度上是因为在不同的市场中，您可能会看到有很多活动围绕着填补您当前年度的第3季度和第4季度。但由于这已经基本满员，因此有兴趣在2020年。所以这样的 我只想到人们的精力去哪里。
But with freight fundamentals softening, why wouldn't they just waited out a little bit to see how the rest of the year is going to go?
I think some people do, but freight fundamentals are really mixed, right? We have a great economy in North America. GDP growth is occurring, I think through May ATA truck tonnage was up 4.4%. So there's not like things are going badly. And we spend a lot of time as a team with our employees and our dealers talking to customers.
Customers are doing a good job. You see the truck companies’ earnings reports and they are coming out really strong in a lot of cases. So, there’s lot of reason for optimism too.
我觉得有些人会这样做，但运费基本面确实好坏参赞吧？ 我们在北美经济很好。 GDP增长正在发生，我认为通过5月份ATA卡车吨位增长了4.4％。 所以事情并不会让事情变得糟糕。 我们花了很多时间作为一个团队，我们的员工和我们的经销商与客户交谈。
客户做得很好。 您可以看到卡车公司的收益报告，并且在很多情况下它们的表现非常强劲。 所以，乐观主义也有很多理由。
Got it. And then you said that the costs offset price in the quarter. It sounded like price you said it was a couple of percent which may be down 1% or so from the first quarter. I would have expected cost to be coming down. So I guess why was the pricing growth moderating? And should we be expecting that costs are actually coming down going forward here?
得到它了。 然后你说成本抵消了本季度的价格。 这听起来像是你所说的几个百分点的价格，可能会比第一季度下降1％左右。 我原本预计成本会下降。 所以我想为什么定价增长会放缓？ 我们是否应该期待这里的成本实际上会下降？
Harrie, you want offer your color?
It's like Preston just said, it's mostly customer mix that pricing was aligned with the cost increases more or less.
And what was that customer mix difference between Q2 and Q1?
So, the customer difference is in the first quarter a lot of dealers lot of stock trucks on their lots and those are small quantity buys and then we get into a more distributed look at customer mix in the second quarter. So, there’s still the stock orders, but then there's just the low to large-sized customer orders come in.
Terrific. Thanks, guys.
Our next question comes from Seth Weber with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Seth Weber和RBC Capital Markets。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hey. Good morning, everybody. I just wanted to go back. I think your guidance for the parts revenue growth for this year you moderated the top end, I think you're now saying 5% to 7%, it was previously 5% to 8%. Is there anything you can call out there that is causing the sort of moderation? Thanks.
嘿。 大家早上好。 我只是想回去。 我认为你对今年零件收入增长的指导是你主持的最高端，我认为你现在说的是5％到7％，之前是5％到8％。 有没有什么你可以在那里呼吁导致这种节制？ 谢谢。
Yes. Sure, the parts business is really doing fantastic. It continues to perform at a high level. Take the opportunity to say as we look at where investments are going in that business and new distribution centers in Ponta Grossa, Brazil, and Las Vegas and the way the team is moving through their initiatives with things like e-commerce and TRP growth is really fantastic. The only reason for any adjustment is really a currency effect that we pushed into the 5% to 7%.
是。 当然，零件业务真的很棒。 它继续在高水平上表现。 借此机会，我们看看该业务的投资地点以及Ponta Grossa，巴西和拉斯维加斯的新配送中心，以及团队通过电子商务和TRP增长等方式实现其举措的方式太棒了。 任何调整的唯一原因实际上是我们推动5％至7％的货币效应。
It's the revenues in Europe in euros that translate into a fewer dollars when we do the translation.
That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. The FinCo margin actually came down sequentially. Is there anything that you'd call out there? And is that sort of the run rate we should think of going forward? Thank you.
这很有帮助。 谢谢。 然后可能只是一个快速的跟进。 FinCo利润实际上是按顺序下降的。 你有什么打电话吗？ 那是我们应该考虑的那种运行速度吗？ 谢谢。
I don't think so. I don't think it's - when we look at the new business generation, it's actually up quarter-over-quarter. So it's more about portfolio that you're talking about. But the team is doing really good. If you look at the earnings per quarter, it went up to $80 million and to the $164 million in the first half and it's just doing fantastic.
我不这么认为。 我认为不是 - 当我们看到新一代业务时，它实际上比上一季度有所增长。 因此，您所谈论的更多是关于投资组合。 但是团队做得非常好。 如果你看看每季度的收益，它上涨到8000万美元，上半年的收益达到1.64亿美元，而且它的表现非常棒。
Okay. Thank you very guys.
Our next question comes from Ross Gilardi with Bank of America. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Ross Gilardi和美国银行。 你的生产线现已开放。
Yes. Thanks, guys. I was just wondering what are you seeing in the Mexican truck market and what would you do if some of the trade tensions that started to rematerialize a couple of months ago came back?
And do you think your overall footprint in North America given your relative lack of exposure to Mexican production is behind any of the order share strength you’ve seen? In other words are customers perhaps ordering more from PACCAR just because there's greater surety of supply, given some of your competitors being relatively more exposed to Mexican production?
是。 多谢你们。 我只是想知道你在墨西哥卡车市场上看到了什么？如果几个月前开始重新物化的一些贸易紧张局面又回来了，你会怎么做？
I think the team in Mexico has just done a really good job down there. We have great trucks. Obviously, the newest trucks we've introduced, the latest generation are fantastic were well received by the customers.
And so, their share was exceptionally good. And if you look at the recent emissions changes happened in the middle of the year. So there is a strong buy ahead of that. But even since then, order intake has been positive and doing quite well. I don't think it's really affected by where people think we're going to build the trucks. And we, obviously, can build trucks in Mexico for Mexico. We can make our domestic U.S. and Canadian production in local markets.
So I think we just have a great manufacturing footprint that works well and I don't think there is anything about trade tensions affecting that, I think, it's more about great trucks and people.
我认为墨西哥队在那里做得非常好。 我们有很棒的卡车。 显而易见，我们推出的最新款卡车，最新一代车型非常出色，深受客户好评。
所以，他们的份额非常好。 如果你看看最近发生在中年的排放变化。 因此，在此之前有一个强大的买入。 但即使从那时起，订单收入仍然是积极的，并且做得很好。 我不认为它真的受到人们认为我们要制造卡车的地方的影响。 显然，我们可以在墨西哥为墨西哥建造卡车。 我们可以在美国和加拿大国内生产本地市场。
I guess, that's the point. Most of what you produce in Mexico is for the Mexican market, correct? And if you did see tariffs all of a sudden, actually come back and put into place, do you feel like you have sufficient capacity in the US market to just relocate some of that production in a very short-term basis?
我猜，这就是重点。 您在墨西哥生产的大部分产品都是针对墨西哥市场的，对吗？ 如果你确实突然看到关税，实际上回来并落实到位，你觉得你在美国市场有足够的能力在短期内重新安置一些产品吗？
Yes. We do have that capability.
Okay. And then, I think, you made a comment about adding engine capacity in Mississippi, if I heard it right. And I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about that. Are you seeing share shift more towards the MX engine with the trucks that you're selling?
好的。 然后，我想，如果我听到的话，你就在密西西比州增加引擎容量做了评论。 而且我想知道你是否可以多谈一点。 您是否看到使用您销售的卡车更多地转向MX引擎？
The MX engine, MX-11 and 13 engines are doing really well. They are providing, I think, just outstanding fuel economy in the market space. People had time to get used to them obviously now. And we’re seeing strong demand from our customers for those engines, for their lightweight and high performance.
So we've increased our capacity in Columbus and just recently finished that capacity increase at the end of the second quarter and going to be able to build some more engines for our customers in the second half.
MX引擎，MX-11和13引擎的表现非常出色。 我认为，它们在市场空间中提供了出色的燃油经济性。 现在人们有时间习惯他们。 我们看到客户对这些发动机的强烈需求，因为它们的重量轻，性能高。
Can you say it roughly how much you've increased capacity in Columbus?
It’s been meaningful, but it's 10% to 20% kind of numbers.
Got it. Okay. Thank you. And just lastly on Brazil, maybe you could comment there. I mean, you've had obviously pretty explosive growth over the last couple of years. Remind us where you are on markets share?
And I think from the beginning, the target was to get to 10% in 5 to 6 years. As you continue to get closer to that number, do you start to grow more in line with the Brazilian market in the next couple of years?
得到它了。 好的。 谢谢。 最后在巴西，也许你可以在那里发表评论。 我的意思是，在过去的几年里，你的增长明显非常可观。 提醒我们您在市场份额中的位置？
Well, the trucks, the DAF trucks in Brazil are working very, very well for our customers. I was down there just a couple of months ago and the dealers and customers are really excited with the performance they get, reliability, durability and fuel economy that they're providing in Brazil. So that's enabling our continued growth. From a year-over-year standpoint, market share is up just a bit and it will continue to grow, continue to make investments in Brazil.
Parts business is doing really well down there. In the middle of building a new distribution center in Ponta Grossa, 160,000 square-foot distribution center in Ponta Grossa, which will support the business growth. And the market overall is improving in Brazil.
So really feeling good about the efforts our team has made down there. The results they're bringing, the success with the dealers now and just how the business is going to continue forward.
那么，卡车，巴西的DAF卡车对我们的客户来说非常非常好。 几个月前我就在那里，经销商和客户对他们在巴西提供的性能，可靠性，耐用性和燃油经济性感到非常兴奋。 这样才能实现我们的持续增长。 从年复一年的角度来看，市场份额略有上升，并且将继续增长，继续在巴西进行投资。
零件业务在那里做得非常好。 在Ponta Grossa建立一个新的配送中心，位于Ponta Grossa的160,000平方英尺的配送中心，这将支持业务增长。 巴西的整体市场正在改善。
Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Cook with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Jamie Cook与瑞士信贷的合作。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hello. I guess, just a question, specifically, what is your visibility in 2020 this quarter, relative to last quarter? I am just trying to understand if it's increased to what degree? And then my second quarter - second question is, assuming industry forecasts are correct next year, I'm just - if you can walk us through over there, is there anything we should consider with regards to decrementals relative to previous cycles in the sense that one I would assume the parts business, obviously, helps your margins, you have the content on the MX engine at the same time one could argue you are more vertically integrated and R&D costs should be structurally higher.
So if there's anything you could help us out with? And then one is the – are the shift decrementals be meaningfully different in Europe versus the U.S? Thanks.
你好。 我想，这只是一个问题，具体而言，本季度相对于上一季度，您在2020年的知名度是多少？ 我只想了解它是否增加到什么程度？ 然后我的第二季度 - 第二个问题是，假设明年行业预测是正确的，我只是 - 如果你可以带我们走过那里，那么我们应该考虑相对于先前周期的减量而言 一个我认为零件业务，显然，帮助你的利润，你有MX引擎的内容，同时有人可能会说你更垂直整合，研发成本应该在结构上更高。
那么，如果有什么可以帮助我们的吗？ 还有一个是 - 欧洲与美国的转移减量是否有显着差异？ 谢谢。
Sure. There is a lot of questions in there, I'm not sure I can get it right for you. From a 2020 order intake, I think that we’re seeing as I said earlier, the higher percentage than we do typically. We have great visibility that means, comparatively to normal [Technical Difficulty] but it feels positive compared to previous years.
From effective what 2020 overall market is going to be, I think as Harrie said, and we all say is it’s a little bit early we're talking about what the full market size is going to be in 2020. And from an effect on decremental margin or margins or incremental margins, they may end up being, I'd say, that we see that we keep our operating costs really low, and I think that means those relatively minor shifts in the decremental or incremental margins and continue to provide good value to our – to the margin the overall margin stateside.
当然。 那里有很多问题，我不确定我能否适合你。 从2020年的订单量来看，我认为正如我之前所说，我们看到的百分比高于我们通常的百分比。 我们具有很高的知名度，相对于正常[技术难度]而言，但与前几年相比感觉良好。
从有效的2020年整体市场来看，我认为正如哈里所说，我们都说现在有点早，我们谈论的是2020年的全部市场规模。并且从减少的影响来看 利润率或利润率或增量利润率，我们可能会说，我们认为我们的运营成本确实很低，而且我认为这意味着在递减或增量利润率方面相对较小的变化，并继续提供良好的利润率。 我们的价值 - 在美国本土的整体利润率。
Okay. But no meaningful difference relative to previous downturns? I mean, is there any structural reason why decrementals would be better? Or just, I mean, if you're right on the top line in incrementals that's a different question, but are decrementals should…
好的。 但与之前的经济衰退相比，没有任何有意义的差异？ 我的意思是，为什么减量会更好？ 或者只是，我的意思是，如果你在增量的顶线上是一个不同的问题，但是减量应该......
No. I don't think so.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Courtney Yakavonis with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Courtney Yakavonis与摩根士丹利。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hi. Thanks. Thanks for the question. Just going back to Andy's question on your production this quarter. I think you had originally forecasted that all the increase would be from North America and kind of it looks like it was pretty evenly split between North America and other.
So why is your North America production in line with your expectations? I know we discussed your kind of at once, but just wanted to confirm that.
你好。 谢谢。 谢谢你的提问。 回到Andy关于本季度制作的问题。 我想你最初预测所有的增加都来自北美，看起来它在北美和其他国家之间的分布非常均匀。
Yes. Our North American production was in line with expectation. I think the only place where there was any slight change was in Europe where we just made sure we got our build rates adjusted to the market. So that's the overall effect.
是。 我们的北美产量符合预期。 我认为唯一有轻微变化的地方是在欧洲，我们确保将我们的建造率调整到市场。 这就是整体效果。
Okay. Got you. And then just on the CapEx waves [ph], just want to make sure, is this similar to last quarter where it's a lot of projects getting done faster or moving more quickly than expected? Or are there any new projects that we should be thinking about?
好的。 有你。 然后只是在CapEx wave [ph]上，只是想确定，这是否与上个季度类似，其中很多项目比预期更快或移动得更快？ 或者我们应该考虑哪些新项目？
Sure. It's really fun, I mean, we're making these great investments in the future for the company, and so that's why you're seeing the CapEx changes. But we have just some fantastic opportunities that are really in terms of our capacity and quality in our factories, our distribution centers for parts and used trucks.
And then maybe most importantly for the long-term benefit is the investments in new products that we are creating. And so there is a lot of programs going on and they're successfully moving along. And we think it's really building a bright future for us.
当然。 这真的很有趣，我的意思是，我们正在为公司未来做出这些巨大的投资，这就是为什么你会看到资本支出的变化。 但我们在工厂，零件和二手卡车配送中心的能力和质量方面确实提供了一些绝佳的机会。
然后，最重要的是，为了长期利益，我们正在创造对新产品的投资。 因此，有很多程序正在进行中，并且它们已经成功地继续前进。 我们认为这对我们来说真的是一个光明的未来。
Okay. Got you. And then just finally in South America I think you slightly reduced your industry guidance there. I just wanted to confirm that and maybe how it compares. I think last quarter you had guided to Brazil up 55,000 to 75,000, just wanted to understand the dynamics at play there?
好的。 有你。 然后最后在南美洲，我认为你在那里略微减少了你的行业指导。 我只是想确认一下，也许它是如何比较的。 我觉得你上个季度你曾经指导过巴西55,000到75,000，只是想了解那里的动态吗？
I don't think the guidance for Brazil is the same as what we did last time. I think for total South America, the range might have dropped 5,000. So from a – I think we’re now…
我不认为巴西的指导与我们上次的指导相同。 我认为在整个南美洲，范围可能已经下降了5,000。 所以从 - 我想我们现在......
100 to 110 for South America in total.
Yes, but it's outside Brazil.
Brazil is still guiding at 70,000 as a midpoint, 65,000 to 75,000, South America 100,000 to 110,000.
Perfect, great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Loop Capital Markets的Jeff Kauffman。 你的生产线现已开放。
Thank you, very much. Good morning, everyone.
Hey, good morning.
Thank you. A lot of my questions have been answered at this point. Just a couple of nits. You mentioned that you are seeing orders for 2020 at this point, yet we do know there are some aspects of the trucking markets seeing pain particularly on the pricing side to your point not so much the volumes. Have you seen any change on the specs that customers are asking for 2020 versus 2019?
谢谢。 我现在已经回答了很多问题。 只是几个尼特。 你提到你现在看到了2020年的订单，但我们确实知道货运市场的某些方面特别是在定价方面的痛苦，而不是你的数量。 您是否看到客户要求2020年与2019年的规格有任何变化？
No. It's a nice question. I think really the customers are always looking for the most fuel efficient, lowest operating costs trucks that they can find. And that’s the beauty of being PACCAR as we provide that to our customers. We have this passionate team of people who do a great job of making sure the trucks we develop and sell are really at the best and most efficient vehicles for our customers.
And so, I think that's what they're always looking at. We're always going to the customers about to make sure the specs stay and lined up that way, but there hasn't been any fundamental shift.
不，这是一个很好的问题。 我认为真正的客户一直在寻找他们能找到的最省油，最低运营成本的卡车。 这就是我们为客户提供PACCAR的美妙之处。 我们拥有这支充满激情的团队，他们能够确保我们开发和销售的卡车确实是我们客户的最佳和最有效的车辆。
Okay. And then just one last nit. I noticed that tax rate was up a little bit sequentially from the first quarter. That could be just randomness, but I am wondering, might that have to do with maybe more profitability being driven out of North America? What should I be thinking in terms of tax rate for the full year?
好的。 然后只是最后一个。 我注意到税率从第一季度开始略有上升。 这可能只是随机性，但我想知道，这可能与更多的盈利能力被驱逐出北美有关吗？ 对于全年的税率，我应该怎么想？
Yes. I think you hit it on the head there. It's an income mix of North America tax rates. So, including states, a little bit higher than Europe, and so that affected in the quarter.
是。 我觉得你在那里击中它。 这是北美税率的收入组合。 因此，包括各州在内，比欧洲稍微高一点，因此在本季度受到影响。
Okay. All right. That’s all I have. All the questions have been asked already. Congratulations and thank you.
好的。 行。 这就是我的全部。 已经提出所有问题。 恭喜并谢谢你。
Great. Thanks a lot.
Our next question comes from Joe O'Dea with Vertical Research. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自垂直研究的Joe O'Dea。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hi. With the North America build rate going up in 3Q, I think historically it's not uncommon to then see it come down in 4Q, but that's usually with Europe going up. And so I'm just curious with some of what's going on in Europe right now? Should we expect that you got your current plans at this point that that increase in the build rate in North America for 3Q is something that you would maintain in 4Q?
你好。 由于北美的建设率在第三季度上升，我认为从历史上看，它在第四季度下降并不罕见，但这通常会随着欧洲的增长而上升。 所以我现在对欧洲正在发生的一些事情感到好奇吗？ 我们是否应该期望你现在有了这样的计划，那么北美第三季度的建造率会在第四季度保持不变？
Yes. We have a strong backlog as we said. It's substantially full for the second half and so we don't see any reason not to think the build rates stays roughly where it is for the fourth quarter in the US and Canada.
是。 正如我们所说，我们积压了很多。 它在下半年基本上已经满了，因此我们认为没有任何理由不认为建造率大致保持在美国和加拿大第四季度的水平。
But you're right that the fourth quarter in US and Canada will have more holidays than the third quarter and Europe is just the opposite, so daily build rates doesn't change overall.
Yes. Just a question on the daily build rates, so yes. And then, your comments around months of inventory, industry at 2.8, you're at 2.3. I think historically, the industry average is in the low two. So I'm just curious historically, where you average as we think about sort of through cycle targets?
是。 只是关于每日构建率的问题，是的。 然后，你的评论围绕数月的库存，行业为2.8，你是2.3。 我认为从历史上看，行业平均水平处于低位。 所以我在历史上只是好奇，你在考虑周期目标时的平均值？
This is within our normal band and it is kind's of a healthy space to be.
Perfect. And then just one of the 2020 orders you're taking, how is that pricing compared to 2019?
It just depends on the customer, but the pricing is fairly consistent right now.
Got it. Thanks very much.
Our next question comes from Neil Frohnapple with Buckingham Research. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Neil Frohnapple和Buckingham Research。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hi, good morning. Is inventory at your used truck centers starting to rise at all? And any thoughts on the used trucks market in North America and Europe both from a demand and pricing standpoint?
早上好。 二手卡车中心的库存是否开始上升？ 从需求和定价的角度来看，对北美和欧洲二手卡车市场有何看法？
Yes. I think if you look at the used trucks maybe the pricing has moderated a bit from where it was in Q1, but one of the nice things about being part of PACCAR is our trucks have commanded 10% to 15% premium in the market. And as we've watched our market share grow over the past several years we've invested in creating a great used truck capability, selling capability.
So that's why we got this new facility, used truck facility we're building a Denton, Texas. A few years ago we did one in Los Angeles. In Europe we're creating one in Prague, in the Czech Republic as well. And then adding on capacity, we have a fantastic dealer network that does a good job of managing used trucks and distributing used trucks to customers. So between our premium position and our capability we feel like we’re in a good space.
是。 我想如果你看看用过的卡车，价格可能会比第一季度有所缓和，但是作为PACCAR的一部分，其中一个好处是我们的卡车在市场上获得了10％到15％的溢价。 而且，随着我们看到我们的市场份额在过去几年中不断增长，我们已经投入了大量的二手卡车销售能力和销售能力。
所以这就是为什么我们得到这个新设施，二手卡车设施，我们正在建设一个德克萨斯州丹顿。 几年前我们在洛杉矶做过一次。 在欧洲，我们也在捷克共和国的布拉格创建了一个。 然后增加产能，我们拥有一个出色的经销商网络，可以很好地管理二手卡车并将二手卡车分发给客户。 因此，在我们的优质地位和我们的能力之间，我们觉得我们处于一个良好的空间。
Okay. And as a follow-up to that if used truck prices were continue to moderate, what's the time lag as far as when that starts impacting the FinCo profitability? I think it usually runs through that interest and other lines? Is there a couple of quarter's lag or any thoughts there?
好的。 如果使用的卡车价格继续放缓，那么作为一个后续行动，在开始影响FinCo盈利能力的时候会有多长的时间滞后？ 我认为它通常贯穿于这种利益和其他方面？ 有几个季度的滞后还是有任何想法？
Yes. I don't think we kind of calibrated into which quarter it would have an impact on and obviously it would depend on the matter of fact and depends a lot on the percent of retail versus wholesale. And our team that's a really good job of selling a lot of used trucks in the retail position. So there is too many mix effect in there that really characterize it.
是。 我认为我们不会对哪个季度产生影响进行校准，显然这取决于事实，并且很大程度上取决于零售与批发的百分比。 我们的团队在零售业销售大量二手卡车方面表现非常出色。 所以那里有太多的混合效果，真正具有它的特征。
Okay. And then just one final one on the medium duty market here in North America, any notable changes to the outlook? What you're seeing from customer’s market share et cetera? Thank you.
好的。 然后在北美的中型市场上只有一个最后一个，对前景的任何显着变化？ 你从客户的市场份额中看到了什么？ 谢谢。
Yes, sure. Thanks for the questions. The market size seems consistent to what we said previously and 100,000 units plus or minus and then the business is doing really well. I think that our trucks are performing well in the space and our market share will be roughly in the same range.
是的，当然。 谢谢你的问题。 市场规模似乎与我们之前所说的一致，100,000单位加或减，然后业务表现非常好。 我认为我们的卡车在该领域表现良好，我们的市场份额大致在同一范围内。
Great. Thanks so much.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Robert Wertheimer with Melius. Your line is now open.
[操作员说明]我们的下一个问题来自Melius的Robert Wertheimer。 你的生产线现已开放。
Thank you and good morning everybody.
My question is pretty simple. I wonder if you could just remind us of the mechanics on orders for next year. Is the order book open for all models and configurations? And then is pricing established or if goes for just - taking a bet on it and is that the same as every year this year?
我的问题非常简单。 我想知道你是否可以提醒我们明年订单的机制。 订单簿是否适用于所有型号和配置？ 然后定价是否确定，或者只是为了 - 只是赌一把，并且与今年的每年相同？
So I would say that the order book is open for all trucks and all models. We love taking orders for trucks, we enjoy it a lot. When I think about it in terms of the pricing being established, in the deals that we're discussing right now those ended up being with the customers and they end up being focused around what we have done previously and what their spec is and what we're doing. So those end up being worked through almost individually.
所以我会说所有卡车和所有型号的订单都是开放的。 我们喜欢接受卡车订单，我们非常喜欢它。 当我在定价方面考虑它时，在我们正在讨论的交易中，那些最终与客户在一起的交易最终会集中在我们之前所做的事情以及他们的规范和我们的内容上。 '干嘛。 所以这些最终几乎都是单独完成的。
Okay, perfect. That’s it. Thanks.
好的，完美的。 而已。 谢谢。
Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自Scott集团与Wolfe Research。 你的生产线现已开放。
Hey. Good morning, guys. It's Rob on for Scott.
嘿。 早上好家伙。 这是斯科特的Rob。
Good morning, Rob.
A quick clarification question with regard to the build rate, am I hearing it right that you guys are basically planning on maintaining the third quarter level of production in the fourth quarter? Or is that some increase you're implying there in the back half guidance?
I think that the firm’s piece is the third quarter is going up and we watch where the fourth quarter - as we substantially are full, we'll watch what the fourth quarter does, but I don't expect to see any significant shifts.
我认为该公司的第三季度正在上升，我们看第四季度的位置 - 因为我们已经满员，我们将关注第四季度的情况，但我不希望看到任何重大变化。
That's helpful. And your preliminary comments about the order book and the strength looking out to next year, were you guys intimating that we could see revenue actually be up next year?
I don't think we intimated next year.
Okay. And then just a couple of quick questions with regard to the used truck market. You said you saw it soften up a little bit. Could you describe if you’re seeing that in one specific channel, i.e., kind of small fleets or kind of the owner operator end of the marketplace? And what sort of increase on year-over-year base are you seeing from a price realization currently would be helpful as well?
好的。 然后就二手卡车市场提出几个简单的问题。 你说你看到它软化了一点点。 你能描述一下你是否在一个特定的渠道中看到这种情况，即一种小型船队或市场所有者运营商的那种？ 你从价格实现中看到的同比基数增长目前也会有所帮助吗？
Yes. As we think about it in terms of the PACCAR products Kenworth, Peterbilt, North America, DAF, and Europe are just - they command the premium, so it's a relative position I think competition doing real well. And then I think - as I said earlier, I think a lot of effect has to do with how many trucks are coming back in and what percent you retail those trucks out and we've been able to grow our retail percentage, especially North America, which has brought us good results. As far as the overall trends of the market, I think those majorities are difficult to plan forward to. But we'll watch them. We have a great team that's managing that business really well.
是。 正如我们在PACCAR产品Kenworth，Peterbilt，北美，DAF和欧洲方面所考虑的那样 - 他们掌控着溢价，所以这是一个相对的位置，我认为竞争做得很好。 然后我认为 - 正如我之前所说，我认为很多影响都与有多少卡车重新投入使用以及您将这些卡车零售的百分比有关，我们已经能够增加我们的零售百分比，特别是北美 这给我们带来了好成绩。 就市场整体趋势而言，我认为那些多数人很难向前推进。 但我们会看他们。 我们拥有一支优秀的团队，能够很好地管理这项业务。
That's helpful. Final one which I guess kind of relates to the FinCo. As we a saw slight uptick in the provision for losses on receivables, obviously, still at a low level and that was a sequential uptick, so nicely improved on a year-over-year basis. What's driving that? Is that just some of the small carriers that you're seeing a little bit of softening in terms of their receivables or is this…
这很有帮助。 最后一个我认为与FinCo有关。 由于我们看到应收账款损失准备略有上升，显然仍然处于较低水平，这是一个连续的上涨，因此同比有很大的改善。 这是什么驱动？ 这只是一些小型航空公司，你看到它们的应收账款有点软化，还是这个......
Most of that is due to the larger portfolio. But past dues remain really low, credit losses remained low, the portfolio has managed really well. So, we've got a lot of good customers that make money with their trucks and pay their bills on time.
其中大部分是由于更大的投资组合。 但过去的会费仍然很低，信贷损失仍然很低，投资组合管理得非常好。 所以，我们有很多好客户用卡车赚钱并按时支付账单。
Really helpful. Appreciate the time guys.
Yes, you bet. Have a good day.
Our next question comes from David Raso with Evercore. Your line is now open.
我们的下一个问题来自David Raso和Evercore。 你的生产线现已开放。
Thank you. Quick question. North America, I know you’ve sliced at U.S., Canada how you get deliveries, but in your commentary about your backlog, can you just help us a bit with your US, Canada, or you want to define it as North America, your backlog year-over-year as we sit today, just some sense of the year-over-year in that position?
谢谢。 快问。 北美，我知道你已经在美国，加拿大切片如何获得送货，但是在你对积压的评论中，你可以帮助我们与你的美国，加拿大，或者你想把它定义为北美，你的 我们今天坐的是同比积压，这个位置的年复一年感觉如何？
Well, it’s up substantially year-over-year from a normal cycle. Obviously, that's moderated from what had happened in 2018's 358,000 truck order intake or 458,000 truck order intake. So, its - if you look at it on a pure sequential year-over-year, it's probably down, but it's down from a level that was not sustainable so high. And so compared to normal levels, it's still very high and very strong, 73,000 trucks in the backlog and doing really well.
嗯，它与正常周期相比大幅上升。 显然，这与2018年的358,000卡车订单或458,000卡车订单的发生情况有所缓和。 所以，它 - 如果你按照纯粹的顺序逐年看待它，它可能会下降，但它会从一个不可持续的高水平下降。 因此，与正常水平相比，它仍然非常高且非常强劲，积压的73,000辆卡车并且运行良好。
I mean, clearly the industry is down. I mean the data we most all use, it's down about 17% year-over-year. I am just trying to get a feel is your backlog down less than the industry?
我的意思是，显然行业已经衰落。 我的意思是我们最常使用的数据，同比下降约17％。 我只是想让你觉得你的积压比行业少吗？
Well, I think the best way to think about that David is to think about that in a percentage of backlog that Harrie talked about earlier, the 36% of the industry backlog which is if you call us a 30% market share and 36% industry backlog, means we have a very healthy backlog relative to our market share.
Yes. I was just trying to figure out how much of that goes into 2020, how much is helping the fourth quarter? If the fourth quarter builds just have a normal seasonal less build days, but the daily rate stays the same, I would argue that's probably a little better than people were thinking.
I am just trying to get a feel while that helps the fourth quarter, what does it mean about 2020? But you're still speaking pretty constructively about your orders into 2020.
So, just trying to put a mosaic here together. But again, your backlog is doing better than the industry given the share gain obviously implied in that backlog versus the industry totals?
是。 我只是试图弄清楚到2020年会有多少，第四季度有多大帮助？ 如果第四季度建设只有正常的季节性减少建造天数，但每日费率保持不变，我认为这可能比人们想的要好一些。
Yes. I think you're characterizing it really well David.
I think that's exactly right this that improve pretty well to that and we'll watch what 2020 does as it get closer to us.
Very helpful. Thank you, guys.
There are no other questions in queue at this time. Are there any additional remarks from the company?
Yes. We’d like to thank everyone for joining the call and thank you operator.
Thanks everyone. Have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen that concludes PACCAR's earnings call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们结束了PACCAR的财报电话会议。 感谢您的参与。 您现在可以断开连接。
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