Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL) 首席执行官 Birgitte Vartdal 于 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年08月16日 · 10 次阅读

Golden Ocean Group Limited (NASDAQ:GOGL) Q2 2019 Results Conference Call August 15, 2019 9:00 AM ET

金海洋集团有限公司(纳斯达克股票代码:[GOGL])2019年第二季度业绩电话会议2019年8月15日美国东部时间上午9:00

公司参与者

Birgitte Vartdal - CEO
Per Heiberg - CFO

  • Birgitte Vartdal - 首席执行官
  • Per Heiberg - 首席财务官

电话会议参与者

Greg Lewis - BTIG

  • 格雷格刘易斯 - BTIG

会议主持员

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to today’s Golden Ocean Group Limited Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today, Thursday, the 15th of August 2019.
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Birgitte Vartdal. Please go ahead, madam.

女士们,先生们,下午好,谢谢你们的支持。 欢迎参加今日金海集团有限公司2019年第二季度盈利电话会议。 此时,所有参与者都处于只听模式。 会有一个演讲,然后是问答环节。 [操作员说明]我必须告知您,本次会议将于今天,即2019年8月15日星期四进行。

我现在想把会议交给你的发言人Birgitte Vartdal。 夫人,请继续。

Birgitte Vartdal

Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon, and welcome to the second quarter 2019 earnings call for Golden Ocean Group Limited. My name is Birgitte Vartdal, I’m the CEO of Golden Ocean management. Together with me I have Per Heiberg, CFO.
We are very happy to see how the market has developed so far in the third quarter, even though we are reporting our weakest quarter in years, for the second quarter of 2019.
As usual, Per will take you through the Company update and I will revert on some comments about the current market and about our strategic positioning.

谢谢。 早上好,下午好,欢迎来到2019年第二季度金海集团有限公司的财报。 我的名字是Birgitte Vartdal,我是Golden Ocean管理公司的首席执行官。 和我一起,我有Per Heiberg,首席财务官。

我们很高兴看到第三季度市场如何发展,尽管我们报告的是2019年第二季度我们多年来最疲软的季度。

像往常一样,Per将带您完成公司更新,我将回复有关当前市场和我们战略定位的一些评论。

每Heiberg

Okay. Thank you, Birgitte.
Golden Ocean reported a net loss for the quarter of $33.1 million, and a loss per share of $0.23 for the second quarter of 2019. This compares to a net loss of $7.5 million and a loss per share of $0.05 for the first quarter. This result includes a mark-to-market loss of $13.3 million, mainly related to falling U.S. interest rate levels and a reversal of the mark-to-market profit on FFA contracts.
Adjusted EBITDA ended at $21.1 million, down from $36 million in the previous quarter. We have declared the remaining four options to install exhaust gas cleaning systems, so called scrubbers, bringing the total amount of scrubber installations to 23 for the Company.
During second quarter, we completed the refinancing of the 14 vessels bought from Quintana, back in 2017, which will significantly reduce interest rates -- or interest expenses and cash break even going forward.
In the second quarter, we invested in Singapore Marine that has set the goal to be a significant operator in the larger vessel classes. I’m sure that will contribute to our existing operations through both valuable trading knowledge and profitable return on the investments.
As we announced earlier this week, the Company has entered into a term sheet to establish a joint venture with Frontline and Trafigura for supply of marine fuels. And on the back of the current strong markets, the Company announced a dividend of $0.10 per share for the second quarter of 2019.
Moving on to the P&L. Despite a slightly stronger average market index in second quarter compared to first quarter of time charter equivalent or TCE, revenue decreased by $8 million compared to the previous quarter. The decrease is a reflection of the weak market at the start of the quarter, which -- with fix things affecting most of the quarter. The market did not see material improvement until June, which was a bit late to be reflected in our quarterly P&L.
Ship operating expenses including dry dock and estimated OpEx on short-term lease in vessels, ended up $48.7 million for the quarter, of this $6.7 million related to dry docking of 8 vessels compared to $1.4 million of 3 vessels in first quarter and $4.7 million relates to estimated OpEx on these vessels. Effectively, the running OpEx on our own fleet is marginally down compared to previous quarter.
The G&A was stable over the quarter at approximately $3.5 million, while we had an extraordinary depreciation in the quarter, resulting in an increase of $1.1 million compared to the prior quarter.
Next, financial expenses are down by $1.1 million compared to the prior quarter. This is mainly due to the full quarter of reduced interest cost on the convertible bond that was repaid in January together with lower margin on the refinanced debt.
In second quarter, we booked a net loss of $11.8 million related to marketable securities and derivatives. This is mainly related to a loss on our U.S. interest rate swaps entered into for hedging purposes, but we booked that mark-to-market, and it’s a reversal of earlier mark-to-market profit on FFA options since the market recovered during second quarter, following the downturn, leading to a profit in the first quarter. These losses were partly offset by an unrealized profit of $1.6 million related to our shareholding in Scorpio Bulkers. [Ph]

好的。谢谢你,Birgitte。

Golden Ocean报告该季度的净亏损为3310万美元,而2019年第二季度的每股亏损为0.23美元。相比之下,第一季度净亏损750万美元,每股亏损0.05美元。这一结果包括按市值计算亏损1330万美元,主要与美国利率水平下降以及FFA合约的按市值计价的利润相反。

调整后的EBITDA收入为2110万美元,低于上一季度的3600万美元。我们已宣布其余四种选择安装废气清洁系统,即所谓的洗涤器,使公司的洗涤器装置总量达到23个。

在第二季度,我们在2017年完成了从Quintana购买的14艘船的再融资,这将显着降低利率 - 或利息支出和现金收支平衡。

在第二季度,我们投资了新加坡海事公司,该公司的目标是成为大型船级的重要运营商。我相信,通过宝贵的交易知识和有利可图的投资回报,这将有助于我们现有的业务。

正如我们本周早些时候宣布的那样,公司已签订一份条款清单,与Frontline和Trafigura建立合资企业供应船用燃料。在当前强势市场的支持下,公司宣布2019年第二季度每股0.10美元的股息。

转到P&L。尽管第二季度的平均市场指数略高于第一季度的同期租约或TCE,但与上一季度相比,收入减少了800万美元。这一下降反映了本季度开始时市场疲软,其中固定因素影响了本季度的大部分时间。直到6月份市场才出现实质性改善,这在我们的季度损益表中有所反映。

船舶运营费用包括干船坞和船舶短期租赁的估计运营支出,本季度结果为4870万美元,其中670万美元与8艘船舶的干船坞相关,而第一季度为3艘船舶的140万美元和470万美元相关估计这些船只的运营成本。实际上,与上一季度相比,我们自己车队的运营OpEx略有下降。

G&A在本季度保持稳定,约为350万美元,而本季度我们的折旧率非常高,与上一季度相比增加了110万美元。

接下来,与上一季度相比,财务费用减少了110万美元。这主要是由于1月份偿还的可转换债券的利息成本减少了四分之一,再融资债务的利润率较低。

在第二季度,我们预订了与有价证券和衍生品相关的净亏损1180万美元。这主要与我们为对冲目的而进行的美国利率掉期亏损有关,但我们预订了按市价计价,这是因为市场在第二次市场复苏后,FFA期权的早期盯市利润出现逆转在经济低迷之后的一个季度,第一季度实现盈利。这些损失部分被与我们持有的Scorpio Bulkers股份相关的160万美元的未实现利润所抵消。 [PH]

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $21.5 million for the quarter, and achieved TCE per day worth $11,629 compared to $13,131 for the previous quarter.
Looking at the cash flow for the quarter. We entered it with $199.2 million and ended approximately $36 million lower. Despite that, we have that positive cash flow from operations and net cash from financing of the non-recourse debt into the new full recourse debt added $3.5 million, and ordinary repayment of existing debt was $16.6 million during the quarter.
The Company used $18 million on investing activity, of which $10 million was invested in Singapore Marine and the remaining $8 million related to investment in scrubber installations and ballast water treatment system. The Company also paid $3.6 million or $0.025 in dividends for the first quarter, during second quarter. Following other months’ [ph] cash outflow, we ended the quarter at still relatively strong cash balance of $163.3 million.
Looking at the balance sheet. The most notable change this quarter is in addition to the cash flow effect is the impact of refinancing of the non-recourse debt which is reduces the current portion of long-term debt by $73 million and net of ordinary repayment of long-term debt, the regular long-term debt has increased correspondingly.
At the end of the quarter, the Company’s book equity was at 51%.
Following refinancing related to 14 vessels bought from Quintana in 2017, all long-term debt is now aligned on structure and on covenants. Long-term debts in the Company are backed by assets and we have no outstanding long-term corporate debt.
In addition, we have a separate loan tranche available on certain of the vessels to be fitted with scrubbers. Going forward, the Company will pay $21.2 million in regular repayment of debt on a quarterly basis, and average interest rate of the debt has been reduced to 225 basis points above LIBOR.
As you can see from the graph, the various loans mature over six-year period starting with one facility that matures at the very end of this year. We are in the process of refinancing that facility and expect that to be completed well ahead of its maturity date.
In the P&L, the Company shows fully burdened OpEx cost including drydocking and fees to external managers. The running OpEx is relatively stable at 5,200 of Panamaxes and 5,600 for Capes.
During 2019, we expect 19 vessels in total to be dry-docked and 9 of them will also have ballast water treatment system installed during the same drydocking. Installation of scrubbers has commenced and so far three vessels are completed, while we expect 12 more scrubbers to be installed during the remainder of this year. And the last eight of the 23 in total to be installed early 2020.
Looking at the fleet, and at this, the core fleet was unchanged since previous quarter and still consists of 77 sailing vessels of which 46 are Capes, 16 Panamax/Kamsarmaxes, 12 ice class Panamaxes and 3 Ultramaxes.
During the most recent uptick on markets rate, the Company has taken some more cover for the remainder of 2019, and some for 2020 as well. In this context, it’s worth noting that we only include long-term cover in this overview. Voyage fixtures and short-term charter contracts are not included as we see those as a part of the spot business, even if such voyages can last up to 90 to 100 days and give cover well into the common quarter. These also include good cover on our ice class Panamaxes trading on pre-agreed COA during third quarter

本季度调整后的EBITDA为2150万美元,每天实现TCE价值11,629美元,而上一季度为13,131美元。

看看本季度的现金流量。我们以1.992亿美元的价格进入了它,最终收入减少了约3600万美元。尽管如此,我们还是将运营中的正现金流量和无追索债务融资的净现金流入新的全额追索债务增加了350万美元,而本季度普通债务的普通偿还额为1660万美元。

该公司在投资活动中使用了1800万美元,其中1000万美元投资于新加坡海事,其余800万美元用于洗涤设施和压载水处理系统的投资。在第二季度,公司还在第一季度支付了360万美元或0.025美元的股息。在其他几个月[[]]现金流出之后,我们在本季度结束时仍有相对强劲的现金余额1.633亿美元。

看资产负债表。本季度最显着的变化是现金流量效应之外的是无追索权债务再融资的影响,即将长期债务的当期部分减少了7300万美元,扣除了长期债务的普通偿还,正常的长期债务也相应增加。

截至本季度末,公司的账面资产为51%。

在2017年从金塔纳购买的14艘船舶进行再融资之后,所有长期债务现在都与结构和契约保持一致。本公司的长期债务由资产支持,我们没有未偿还的长期公司债务。

此外,我们在某些船舶上设有单独的贷款部分,以配备洗涤器。展望未来,公司将按季度支付2120万美元定期偿还债务,债务平均利率已降至LIBOR以上225个基点。

正如您从图表中看到的那样,各种贷款在六年期限内成熟,首先是一家工厂在今年年底成熟。我们正在对该设施进行再融资,并期望在到期日之前完成。

在损益表中,公司显示完全负担的运营成本,包括干船坞和外部经理的费用。运行中的OpEx相对稳定,巴拿马型船只有5,200辆,而Capes船型则为5,600辆。

在2019年期间,我们预计共有19艘船将进行干船坞停靠,其中9艘也将在同一干船坞期间安装压载水处理系统。洗涤器的安装已经开始,到目前为止已完成三艘船,而我们预计在今年剩余时间内将安装12艘洗涤器。而在总共23个中的最后8个将在2020年初安装。

看看舰队,此时核心舰队自上一季度以来没有变化,仍然包括77艘帆船,其中46艘为Capes,16艘巴拿马型/ Kamsarmaxes,12艘冰级巴拿马型船和3艘Ultramax船。

在最近的市场价格上涨期间,公司在2019年的剩余时间内采取了更多的保险,而在2020年也采取了一些措施。在这种情况下,值得注意的是,我们仅在此概述中包含长期内容。由于我们将这些航程视为现货业务的一部分,因此即使这些航程可以持续长达90至100天并且很好地覆盖公共季度,也不包括航程固定装置和短期租船合同。这些还包括我们的冰级巴拿马型船在第三季度预先商定的COA交易中的良好保障

For the Capesizes, we have then currently fixed out the equivalent of 8 vessels at fixed rate on an average of $20,440 for the remaining year -- or remainder of this year, and one vessel has been converted from index linked to a fixed rate of $20,500 throughout 2020. The cover for the Panamax vessels is more or less unchanged from previous quarter, with 8 vessels fixed out from now and until the end of 2021, with some various expirations, with the net average of $18,690 per day. The various charters -- and yes, as I said, between April 2020 and throughout end of 2021.
On top of this cover, we have six floor/ceiling Capesize contracts for 2019 and 2 for 2020, securing the downside at approximately 15,000 by giving away an upside about 29,500. These contracts are proven to be highly effective during the downturn experienced in first half of the year.
And that ends my presentation, and I’ll hand over the word to Birgitte, who will take you through the macro and the strategic outlook.

对于海岬型船,我们目前已确定相当于8艘船的固定费率,剩余年份平均为20,440美元 - 或今年剩余时间,而一艘船已从指数转换为固定费率20,500美元 整个2020年。巴拿马型船舶的保险范围与上一季度相比基本保持不变,从现在开始到2021年底,有8艘船舶停运,并有不同的到期,平均每天18,690美元。 各种章程 - 是的,正如我所说,在2020年4月到2021年底之间。

在这个封面的顶部,我们有2019年的6个底层/天花板海岬型合约和2020年的2个,通过放弃上涨约29,500来确保下行至约15,000。 事实证明,这些合同在上半年经济衰退期间非常有效。

这结束了我的演讲,我将把这个词交给Birgitte,后者将带您了解宏观和战略前景。

Birgitte Vartdal

Thank you, Per.
As an introduction to the macro, I think it’s fair to say that talking about the macro environment in dry bulk is obviously impacted by the volatile signs that we see in the global economy. I think, however, there are some interesting effects as well that can positively impact dry bulk, and I will touch base on those, when I go through the presentation.
Looking back at utilization. During the second quarter, we saw a slight increase compared to the prior quarter. Fleet supply grew modestly with new deliveries partially offset by scrapping of older vessels.
Looking at demand, the seaborne transportation was mostly unchanged compared to the last quarter and the second quarter of 2018. However, the quarter started on a very weak note caused by the sharp reduction in iron ore volumes following the Vale accident earlier in the year, which has been well covered.
Iron ore production has begun to come back on line. Rates have surged and have been at profitable levels since the start of June. And we expect to see a report -- to report increased utilization rates in the next report.
Focusing on demand, volumes, measured at the time it’s been imported, so there is a slight delay compared to if you measure at the time of export, were remarkably stable quarter-over-quarter, despite adjusting iron ore and the impact of trade war on the agri trade. Aside from iron ore, coal imports remained high with growth driven by China and India. Agri volumes grew compared to the first quarter, but reduced relative to the second quarter of last year, and other bulks continued its positive trend, showing strong growth quarter-over-quarter. I would like to mention bauxite in particular, which is having a strong growth and which is currently around 6% of the Cape trade.
Moving on to iron ore. As we discussed on the last call, market expectations for growth in iron ore changed following the tragic accident in Brazil at the end of January. In total, 90 million tons of Vale iron ore production was halted at the end of first quarter. While Vale continued for a while to supply volumes from port stockpile, this wasn’t sustainable and Cape rates fell to very low levels, by the end of March.
On top of this, which maybe has been a bit under-communicated, there were several weather-related issues in the northern system in Brazil, which also put pressure on exports. Since the end of the first quarter, 42 million of halted production has been restored, which had a dramatic impact on rates. The halt and the restart in production created a supply imbalance of vessels as there were more than 17 [ph] vessels waiting outside Brazil for cargo at one point. As the cargo came back, most of those vessels were heading front hall at more or less the same time, and Vale had to secure other vessels in the markets to cover up for the lack of volume access available. We expect when these vessels arrive in China, quite a few of them will have to install scrubbers which will keep capacity constraint and which will be very interesting to follow going forward.

谢谢,Per。

作为对宏观的介绍,我认为可以说,谈论干散货的宏观环境显然受到我们在全球经济中看到的波动迹象的影响。不过,我认为,还有一些有趣的效果可以对干散货产生积极的影响,当我通过演示时,我会触及那些。

回顾利用率。在第二季度,我们看到与上一季度相比略有增长。船队供应量适度增长,新的交付量部分被废旧船只所抵消。

从需求来看,与上一季度和2018年第二季度相比,海运运输基本没有变化。然而,由于今年早些时候淡水河谷事故后铁矿石量大幅减少,本季度开始出现非常疲软的情况,这已被很好地覆盖。

铁矿石生产已开始恢复生产。自6月初以来,利率飙升并且一直处于盈利水平。我们希望看到一份报告 - 报告下一份报告中提高的利用率。

关注需求,数量,在进口时测量,因此与出口时衡量相比略有延迟,尽管调整了铁矿石和贸易战的影响,但与上一季度相比仍然非常稳定关于农业贸易。除铁矿石外,由于中国和印度的增长,煤炭进口依然居高不下。与第一季度相比,农业产量增长,但相对去年第二季度有所减少,其他散货继续呈现积极趋势,环比增长强劲。我想特别提到铝土矿,这是一个强劲的增长,目前约占开普贸易的6%。

转向铁矿石。正如我们在上一次电话会议上讨论的那样,市场对铁矿石增长的预期在1月底巴西发生的悲惨事故后发生了变化。截至第一季度末,总共有9000万吨淡水河谷铁矿石生产停产。虽然淡水河谷继续供应港口库存量一段时间,但这种情况不可持续,开普率从3月底降至非常低的水平。

除此之外,可能有点沟通不足,巴西北部系统存在几个与天气有关的问题,这也给出口带来压力。自第一季度末以来,已经恢复了4200万停产,这对费率产生了巨大影响。生产中止和重新启动造成了船舶的供应不平衡,因为有超过17艘[ph]船只在巴西境外等候货物。随着货物的回归,大多数船只或多或少同时前往大厅,而淡水河谷则必须确保市场上的其他船只能够弥补缺乏的货物通道。我们预计,当这些船只抵达中国时,其中相当一部分将不得不安装洗涤器,这将保持容量限制,这将是非常有趣的继续前进。

Vale anticipates to restore an additional 20 million tons of production by the end of the year and the remainder within the next two to three years. If you compare to last year, Vale was initially guiding on an increase for 2019 over 30 million tons. So, based on what they actually anticipate to restore the production should be more or less in line with the 2018 production. over time.
Australian production as well has rebounded following a cyclone item in March that constrained the production in the west of the country. And the Q2 export was strongly ahead of their financial year close.
Steel production is key to the iron ore trade and the thermal coal trade. And due to supply constraints, iron ore prices went very high in the first half of the year. Despite this, global steel production increased in the quarter, growing 5% year-over-year, led by nearly 11% increase in Chinese steel production, while it was flat in the rest of the world. This follows additional stimulus program from the Chinese government, which has had a positive impact on investments and infrastructure spending, and steel margins continued to be positive despite the high cost of raw materials. This also responds to the international trade wars and uncertainties in the global economy, and as I mentioned at the beginning, this has been a positive factor for the dry bulk market this year.
Higher iron ore prices, and following the disruptions of Brazil, and the weather-related supply disruptions have led to a drawdown of stocks in Chinese ports and their steel mills. And with iron ore prices now coming down and volumes of iron ore coming back in international markets, we expect to see a flattening of stockpiles of iron ore and potentially we can see also return of stock building of iron ore later in the year.
Moving on to coal. As mentioned earlier, coal imports to China increased after the import restrictions at the end of last year were listed. And volumes in the second quarter were actually up to 17% year-over-year. However, coal stocks in China are relatively high and there are reports that the Chinese government will cast the 2019 imports at the same level as last year, which would negatively impact the fourth quarter volumes.
Imports into India have been up an impressive 30% compared to last year. Stockpiles are high in the historical context but not significant compared to the growing demand. In India, like China, would like to support their local coal production and look to increase their domestic production. But as opposed to China, the growth has not been sustainable in the domestic production and import volumes have been compensating for the lack of growth in the domestic production.
Chinese electricity production grew by 5% year-over-year in the second quarter and thermal coal makes 70% of the total balance of production. This is a decline from past quarter, due to seasonal higher hydropower electricity production, which should continue for a few months, before it drops back going into the winter season. Despite the decline in thermal coal electricity as part of the total energy mix, coal consumption continued to grow on an absolute basis.

淡水河谷预计到今年年底将恢复2000万吨的产量,其余的将在未来两到三年内恢复。如果与去年相比,淡水河谷最初指导2019年增加超过3000万吨。因此,根据他们实际预期的恢复生产应该或多或少地符合2018年的生产。随着时间的推移。

继3月份的飓风项目限制了该国西部地区的产量后,澳大利亚的产量也出现反弹。第二季度出口强劲超过其财政年度结束。

钢铁生产是铁矿石贸易和动力煤贸易的关键。由于供应紧张,上半年铁矿石价格走势非常高。尽管如此,本季度全球钢铁产量增长,同比增长5%,中国钢铁产量增长近11%,而世界其他地区则持平。这是继中国政府的额外刺激计划之后,该计划对投资和基础设施支出产生了积极影响,尽管原材料成本高昂,但钢铁利润继续保持积极态势。这也是对全球经济中的国际贸易战和不确定因素的回应,正如我在开始时所提到的,这对今年干散货市场来说是一个积极的因素。

较高的铁矿石价格以及巴西的中断以及与天气有关的供应中断导致中国港口及其钢厂的库存减少。由于铁矿石价格目前正在下降,铁矿石的数量在国际市场回归,我们预计铁矿石库存将会持平,而且我们可以看到今年晚些时候铁矿石库存的回归。

转向煤炭。如前所述,在去年年底进口限制上市后,对中国的煤炭进口增加。第二季度的销量实际上同比增长了17%。然而,中国的煤炭库存相对较高,有报道称中国政府将把2019年的进口量与去年的水平相提并论,这将对第四季度的产量产生负面影响。

与去年相比,进口到印度的进口量增长了30%。库存在历史背景中很高,但与不断增长的需求相比并不显着。在印度,像中国一样,希望支持当地的煤炭生产,并希望增加国内产量。但与中国相比,国内生产的增长并不可持续,而且进口量弥补了国内生产的不足增长。

第二季度中国电力产量同比增长5%,动力煤产量占总产量的70%。由于季节性较高的水电发电量将继续保持几个月,然后再回到冬季,这是上季度的下降。尽管动力煤电力作为总能源结构的一部分下降,但煤炭消费继续保持绝对增长。

The U.S.-China trade war continues to have significant effect on U.S. grain exports as can be seen on the bottom graph. The swine flu in China has also impacted demand for grain. South American export volumes declined in the second quarter along with the U.S. volumes. The trade war had an extremely negative impact, and unless there is a relief, volumes from the second harvest season may be lost.
Total export volumes, however, remained healthy. Brazil has compensated most of the shortfall in U.S. exports. And we saw that the Chinese came back in the market and immediately bought more soybean from East Coast, South America, once the U.S. announced increased tariffs last week. From a shipping perspective, the exports from Brazil or export from the U.S. is more or less similar in terms of days.
Moving on to supply. Despite deliveries in the second quarter totaling 10 million tons, up from 8.6 million in the first quarter, fleet growth in most segments had been moderate. In the Cape segment, 4 million deadweight has also been scrapped so far this year. So, the growth -- net fleet growth rate for Cape had a decline in the two quarters in a row. In the Panamax segment, there was an increase in the net fleet growth, as very few vessels have been taken out of the market.
Looking ahead, currently the order book represents around 10.5% of the current fleet, and in nominal terms are as low as in a very long time. And it’s not changed a lot lately. Few new orders have been reported over the last few months. These data represent an estimated fleet growth gross for around 6%, which to me, seems to be a bit high as we expect some delays and possibly some of the orders are not historic orders that may not materialize. Around 13 million deadweight tons were ordered in 2015 or earlier of the current order book. Final deliveries should therefore not be as high as the order book numbers indicate.
Net growth fleet will, in addition to demolition, be affected by the IMO 2020 disruptions, including offhire for scrubber installations, cleaning of tanks and timely availability of new types of fuel. We believe that offhire related to scrubber installations is impacting the market positively as we speak and this should last at least through the first quarter of -- be a supporting factor at least through the first quarter of next year.
The scrapping activity picked up earlier in the year, also in a period where the markets were weaker and a total scrap of 4.2 million deadweight tons at this time. This is a level not seen since the market was low in 2016. The majority occurred in the first quarter of the year, but almost 2 million tons was also scrapped in the second quarter.
This is a natural reaction to a weak freight environment. The historical relationship between strong rates and lower scrapping may be disrupted over the next year as all the vessels become less viable in a higher fuel price environment. In a weak market environment, vessels above 15 years of age are more likely to be scrapped, as investments in ballast water treatment systems, the dry dock itself, and the lack of a scrubber will both imply higher costs and lower earnings potential.

美中贸易战继续对美国粮食出口产生重大影响,如下图所示。中国的猪流感也影响了对粮食的需求。南美出口量在第二季度随着美国的出口量下降。贸易战产生了极其不利的影响,除非得到缓解,否则第二季收获季节的数量可能会减少。

但总出口量仍然健康。巴西弥补了美国出口的大部分缺口。我们看到中国人回到市场后,一旦美国上周宣布提高关税,就会立即从南美洲东海岸购买更多的大豆。从运输角度来看,巴西的出口或美国的出口在天数方面或多或少相似。

继续供应。尽管第二季度的交付总量为1000万吨,高于第一季度的860万吨,但大多数细分市场的船队增长都很温和。在开普段,今年迄今已有400万载重量被废弃。因此,Cape的增长 - 净船队增长率连续两个季度出现下滑。在巴拿马型船市场,净船队增长有所增加,因为很少有船只被撤出市场。

展望未来,目前订单量占目前船队的10.5%左右,名义上的价格与很长一段时间一样低。而且最近并没有太大变化。过去几个月几乎没有新的订单报告。这些数据代表估计的车队增长总量约为6%,对我来说似乎有点高,因为我们预计会出现一些延迟,可能还有一些订单不是可能没有实现的历史性订单。 2015年或当前订单中较早订购了约1300万载重吨。因此,最终交货不应该像订单簿号码那样高。

除拆除外,净增长船队还将受到IMO 2020中断的影响,包括用于洗涤器安装,清洗油箱和及时提供新型燃料的废钢。我们认为,与洗涤器安装相关的非重要性正在影响市场,因为我们发言并且至少应该持续到第一季度 - 至少在明年第一季度成为支撑因素。

报废活动在今年早些时候有所回升,同时市场疲软,此时废钢总量为420万载重吨。这是自2016年市场低迷以来未见的水平。大多数发生在今年第一季度,但第二季度也有近200万吨报废。

这是对疲软的货运环境的自然反应。由于所有船舶在较高的燃料价格环境中变得不太可行,因此强势和较低报废之间的历史关系可能会在明年中断。在市场疲软的情况下,15岁以上的船舶更有可能被废弃,因为对压载水处理系统,干船坞本身以及缺乏洗涤器的投资都意味着更高的成本和更低的盈利潜力。

Looking at the sales and purchase market, it was very muted activity at the beginning of the year. The activity has picked up a bit lately but the transactions have been focused on the Panamax and Supramax segments and the middle aged to older vessels mainly. And there has not been a lot of activity in the Capesize this year.
Secondhand values have remained relatively steady lately, and time charter rates have picked up recently in contrast.
We would like to remind the fact that in the resale market, there is a clear preference for modern ECO tonnage. And in this slide we have data for a modern and ECO and non-ECO vessels. The value spread between the five-year old of the two different classes is quite big and then ECO vessel commands a significant premium.
Following the implementation of IMO 2020 sulfur regulations, one should expect that less fuel efficient vessels unless they are retrofitted with scrubbers, will fall further out of favor due to higher fuel consumption.
Looking ahead, the implementation of IMO 2020 is just over four months away. We expect to have scrubbers installed on 23 of our Capes by the end of the first quarter of 2020. This is an investment we believe will lead to strong earnings potential.
The 23 vessels represent 50% of our Cape fleet and two-third of the part of the fleet where we have economic interest and exposure to fuel prices as 10 vessels are charted out for a longer period on index linked time charters. We have consistently installed the scrubbers in line with our dry dock schedule, although a few of the 2020 dockings have been moved into the first quarter of that year.
We are also pleased to have announced earlier this week that Golden Ocean together with Frontline and Trafigura Group have entered into a non-binding term sheet for a joint venture that aims to be one of the world’s leading suppliers of marine fuels. Trafigura is one of the largest physical commodities trading groups in the world and has an existing physical bunkering business that has a broad geographic footprint and will be contributed into the joint venture.
Subject to agreements and final terms, the joint venture will commence operations in the third quarter and Golden Ocean will have a 10% equity ownership. From an operational point of view, having access to a wide variety of marine fuels at competitive prices is important as the industry prepares for potential logistical issues that may limit availability in certain ports, and also for issues relating to different fuel blends and specifications.
We believe that our joint venture with Trafigura and Frontline will ensure that we have prompt access to both high sulfur fuels and compliant fuels.
Setting aside the economic opportunity, we have either created a further competitive advantage or at least protected ourselves against the significant potential risk.
After a disappointing first half of the year the saw rates collapse with the disruption in iron ore, we’re obviously pleased with the current market environment. Rates are well above cash breakeven level, and we are clearly well-positioned to generate significant cash flow in the third quarter. We are also certain that the market will continue to be volatile and not without complications. And for this reason, we continued to opportunistically add coverage at profitable levels through fixed contracts and contracted floor/ceiling structures at the time when the forward curve was at its high in July.

从销售和购买市场来看,今年年初的活动非常平静。该活动最近有所回升,但这些交易主要集中在巴拿马型和Supramax型以及中型老龄船的交易。今年好望角型的活动并不多。

最近的二手价值保持相对稳定,而最近的定期租金率则相反。

我们想提醒一下,在转售市场中,人们明显偏爱现代ECO吨位。在本幻灯片中,我们提供了现代和ECO和非ECO船舶的数据。两个不同级别的五年级之间的价值差异非常大,然后ECO船只获得了巨大的溢价。

在实施IMO 2020硫磺法规之后,人们应该预计,除非使用洗涤器进行改装,否则燃油效率较低的船舶将因燃料消耗量增加而进一步失宠。

展望未来,IMO 2020的实施还有四个多月的时间。我们预计到2020年第一季度末将在我们的23个Capes上安装洗涤器。这是我们认为将带来强劲盈利潜力的投资。

23艘船只占我们开普群岛船队的50%,以及我们拥有经济利益和燃油价格敞口的船队的三分之二,因为10艘船舶在指数挂钩时间租约中被列出更长时间。我们一直按照我们的干船坞时间表安装洗涤器,尽管2020年的一些停靠站已进入当年第一季度。

我们也很高兴本周早些时候宣布,Golden Ocean与Frontline和Trafigura Group签订了一份合资企业的非约束性条款清单,旨在成为世界领先的船用燃料供应商之一。托克是世界上最大的实体商品交易集团之一,现有的物流加油业务具有广阔的地理覆盖范围,并将为合资企业做出贡献。

根据协议和最终条款,合资企业将在第三季度开始运营,Golden Ocean将拥有10%的股权。从运行的角度来看,以具有竞争力的价格获得各种各样的船用燃料非常重要,因为该行业正在准备可能限制某些港口可用性的潜在后勤问题,以及与不同燃料混合物和规格有关的问题。

我们相信,我们与Trafigura和Frontline的合资企业将确保我们能够迅速获得高硫燃料和合规燃料。

撇开经济机会,我们要么创造了进一步的竞争优势,要么至少保护自己免受重大潜在风险的影响。

在上半年令人失望之后,由于铁矿石的中断,锯材价格下跌,我们显然对当前的市场环境感到满意。利率远高于现金盈亏平衡水平,我们显然有能力在第三季度产生大量现金流。我们也确信市场将继续波动,并非没有复杂性。因此,我们继续通过固定合约和合约楼面/天花板结构在7月份的远期曲线处于高位时机会性地增加覆盖率。

The forward curve is in backwardation, and the spreads between the current spot rates and the calendar 2020 is now huge. So, at the moment, we will play with spot market mainly and wait until we potentially see an adjustment in the forward curve before we add coverage at the further end of the curve.
Headlines continue to move both the freight and equity markets, but our outlook remains constructive and we are focused on controlling things we can control and maintain our strong financial profile with low cash breakeven levels.
Our balance sheet is strong, and we have a significant liquidity position. And as a reflection of this and performance so far in the third quarter, the Board has decided to declare a dividend of $0.10 per share. We will also continue to review additional measures to create value for our shareholders, including potentially additional share repurchases.
We have limited CapEx requirements related to installation of ballast water treatment systems, a requirement for all vessels that were built without this, which typically is for vessels built earlier than 2014. And 48 of our vessels have ballast water treatment systems installed. The remaining cost is marginal and spread out over several years. And we believe, this is the competitive advantage of having a young fleet, which has not been so high in focus.
We are on the contrary investing significantly in upgrading our fleet this year with 23 scrubber installations. The competitive advantage of the modern fleet is reflected in the way asset prices for modern prices have held up, and should together with scrubber installations significantly impact our earnings potential as we approach 2020, and in an environment where higher fuel prices are very likely.
We are confident that the investments on the strategic initiatives we are undertaking will provide additional cash flow benefit, heading into 2020.
And this ends our presentation for today. We’re open to answer questions you may have. Thank you.

前向曲线是向后的,当前即期汇率与日历2020之间的差价现在很大。所以,目前,我们将主要与现货市场一起玩,并等到我们可能会看到前向曲线的调整,然后我们才会在曲线的另一端增加覆盖率。

头条新闻继续推动货运和股票市场,但我们的前景仍然具有建设性,我们专注于控制我们可以控制的事物,并以低现金盈亏平衡水平维持我们强大的财务状况。

我们的资产负债表很强劲,我们拥有显着的流动资金状况。作为对第三季度迄今为止的表现和业绩的反映,董事会决定宣布每股0.10美元的股息。我们还将继续审查为股东创造价值的其他措施,包括可能的额外股票回购。

我们对压载水处理系统安装相关的资本支出要求有限,这是对所有未经建造的船舶的要求,通常适用于早于2014年建造的船舶。我们的船舶中有48艘安装了压载水处理系统。剩余的成本是微不足道的,并且分散了几年。我们相信,这是拥有一支年轻车队的竞争优势,而这支车队的关注度并不高。

相反,我们在今年用23台洗涤器装置进行了大幅度的升级改造。现代船队的竞争优势反映在现代价格的资产价格持续上涨的方式上,并且随着我们接近2020年以及在极有可能燃料价格上涨的环境中,洗涤器装置应与我们的盈利潜力相结合。

我们相信,我们正在进行的战略举措的投资将为2020年带来额外的现金流效益。

这结束了我们今天的演讲。我们愿意回答您的问题。谢谢。

问答环节

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Greg Lewis. Please ask your question.

谢谢。 女士们,先生们,我们现在开始问答环节。 [操作员说明]你的第一个问题来自Greg Lewis的系列。 请问你的问题。

格雷戈里刘易斯

Yes. Thank you, and good afternoon.

是。 谢谢,下午好。

Birgitte Vartdal

Good afternoon, good morning.

大家下午好,早上好。

格雷戈里刘易斯

Yes. In the slide deck, you clearly did a good job of explaining the overall macro picture. But, could we just dive a little bit deeper into what’s going on in the Cape market? It seemed like it was really moving higher in July than pulled back a little bit here in August and then, as we’re looking at it over the last week, it seems like it’s really got like a second leg behind it. Any kind of color, what you’re seeing in the markets that kind of you think is helping push rates, kind of reverse downward slide we started to see as July was ending?

是。 在幻灯片中,你清楚地完成了解释整体宏观图片的工作。 但是,我们能不能更深入地了解开普市场的情况? 看起来它在7月真的走高了,而不是在8月份稍稍拉回来,然后,正如我们在上周看到的那样,看起来它真的像是第二回合。 任何一种颜色,你在市场上看到的那种你认为有助于推动利率,我们开始看到7月即将结束的反向下滑趋势?

Birgitte Vartdal

I think, it’s a bit back, on and off, with sort of the cargoes and when the miners are out fixing the vessels. Also, things like holidays or typhoons, et cetera. So, there is like the short-term volatility is maybe reflecting such elements. And we feel that there is still a good demand in the market, and there is good activity on the spot fixtures. Obviously, with where the rates are now and where the fuel prices are, you potentially can see some speed increases over time. But, the demand side is there. And combined with fewer vessels in the Atlantic market, potentially an imbalance with more vessels in the Pacific also preparing for scrubber installations and offhire scrubber installations, that is supporting the market as we see now.

我认为,有些货物以及当矿工们正在修理船只时,它会有所回复。 此外,还有假期或台风等等。 因此,短期波动可能反映了这些因素。 而且我们认为市场上仍有很好的需求,而现场灯具也有很好的活动。 显然,现在的费率和燃油价格在哪里,你可能会看到一些速度随着时间的推移而增加。 但是,需求方面存在。 与大西洋市场上的船只数量减少相结合,太平洋地区更多船只的不平衡也可能为洗涤器装置和废钢洗涤装置做准备,这正在支持我们现在所看到的市场。

格雷戈里刘易斯

Okay, great. And then, just -- clearly, there was a nice increase in the dividend this quarter. I mean, as I look at Q2 versus Q1, maybe that doesn’t sort of lay out a reason to really be pushing the dividend. But as we look forward, is that kind of how we should -- how should we be thinking about the dividend as it stands today, and as we’re looking into the back half of the year, in this sort of strong rate environment?

好,太棒了。 然后,只是 - 显然,本季度的股息有了很大的增长。 我的意思是,当我看到第二季度与第一季度时,也许这并没有说明真正推动股息的理由。 但是,正如我们所期待的那样,我们应该如何应对 - 我们应该如何考虑今天的股息,以及在这种强势的利率环境中我们正在考虑今年下半年?

Birgitte Vartdal

I think, you are right. I think, the decision on the dividend is very much taken also in the -- when you are in the midst of the next quarter. So, it’s not only a reflection of the quarter that we are reporting on but also a reflection of the quarter we are in. And so, in a sense, you can say that the cut we did from 5 to 2.5 was in a way a reflection of Q2 and how the increase is a reflection of Q3. And since -- I mean, we have the investments in scrubbers and ballast water and dry docks, but beyond that we don’t have CapEx, and we are fully financed. So, it’s how we see the running cash flow and what the capacity we have, but still to maintain a decent cash position and a strong balance sheet. So, we don’t have a very formula based dividend but we are willing to pay out dividend when we view that we generate the cash flow to support it.

我想你是对的。 我认为,当你处于下一季度时,对股息的决定也非常重要。 因此,它不仅反映了我们正在报道的季度,而且反映了我们所处的季度。因此,从某种意义上说,你可以说我们从5到2.5做的削减是一种方式 Q2的反映以及增加如何反映Q3。 从那时起 - 我的意思是,我们在洗涤器,压载水和干船坞方面进行了投资,但除此之外我们还没有资本支出,而且我们的资金充足。 因此,这就是我们如何看待正在运行的现金流以及我们拥有的产能,但仍然要保持良好的现金状况和强劲的资产负债表。 因此,我们没有基于公式的股息,但是当我们认为我们产生现金流来支持股息时,我们愿意支付股息。

格雷戈里刘易斯

Okay, great. And then, just one last thing on the scrubbers. Clearly, it’s still early days, but as you’re monitoring the market, are you seeing any examples where charterers are willing to pay a premium for vessels that have scrubbers on them?

好,太棒了。 然后,在洗涤器上最后一件事。 显然,现在还处于早期阶段,但是当你监控市场时,你是否看到过租船人愿意为有洗涤器的船只支付溢价的例子?

Birgitte Vartdal

They are willing to pay a premium but not necessarily the premium you want to see, if you look at the spread in the fuel prices. And so, mainly the fixtures that we have seen have been fixture on the time charter rates but with a profit split for instance on the scrubber, so that the charterer gets 50% and the owner gets 50% or some with fixed rate, but then not getting the full benefit. But, in my mind, it looks -- or what we have seen so far is more of a profit split on the scrubbers.

如果你看一下燃料价格的差价,他们愿意支付溢价但不一定是你想看的溢价。 所以,主要是我们所看到的固定装置已经固定在时间租赁费率上,但是例如在洗涤器上有利润分配,因此租船者获得50%而业主得到50%或者一些具有固定利率,但是 没有得到全部的好处。 但是,在我看来,它看起来 - 或者我们到目前为止看到的更多的是洗涤器的利润分配。

格雷戈里刘易斯

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

好的,完美的。 非常感谢你。

Birgitte Vartdal

You’re welcome.

别客气。

会议主持员

[Operator Instructions]

[操作说明]

Birgitte Vartdal

Okay. We would like to thank you for listening in today. And we will speak again in three months from now. Thank you.

好的。 我们今天要感谢您的收听。 我们将在三个月后再次发言。 谢谢。

会议主持员

That does conclude our conference call today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

这确实结束了我们今天的电话会议。 感谢您的参与。 你可能都断开了。

相关问题

  • Golden Ocean Group Ltd. 电话会议
  • Golden Ocean Group Ltd. 财务报告

互联网券商的港股、美股开户教程

如果您对美股 或者 港股也感兴趣, 或者想要了解如何开户, 可以加我wechat: xiaobei006006, 同时也可以拉您进美股交流群哦。
最后的最后 祝大家都有一个美好的投资生活哦。

大家也可以关注【美股指南】公众号, 即可获得《小白投资美股指南(雪球「岛」系列)》电子书

写在最后

友情提示 转载请注明出处: https://investguider.com/topics/12127
暂无回复。
需要 登录 后方可回复, 如果你还没有账号请点击这里 注册