A.P. Moeller-Maersk A / SG&A (AMKAF) 首席执行官 Soren Skou 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

[机器翻译] 电话会议 · 2019年08月16日 · 11 次阅读

A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/SG&A (OTCPK:AMKAF) Q2 2019 Results Earnings Conference Call August 15, 2019 5:00 AM ET

AP Moeller-Maersk A / SG&A([OTCPK:AMKAF])2019年第二季度业绩收益电话会议2019年8月15日上午5:00ET

公司参与者

Soren Skou - CEO, CEO of Transport & Logistics Division
Carolina Dybeck Happe - CFO and Executive Board Member

  • Soren Skou - 运输与物流部门首席执行官兼首席执行官
  • Carolina Dybeck Happe - 首席财务官兼执行董事会成员

电话会议参与者

Lars Heindorff - SEB
David Kerstens - Jefferies
Finn Bjarke Petersen - Danske Bank
Robert Joynson - Exane BNP Paribas
Marcus Bellander - Nordea

  • Lars Heindorff - SEB
  • 大卫克斯滕斯 - 杰弗里斯
  • Finn Bjarke Petersen - 丹麦银行
  • 罗伯特乔伊森 - Exane BNP Paribas
  • Marcus Bellander - Nordea

Soren Skou

Good morning everyone and thank you for listening to our earnings call today for Second Quarter Interim Report 2019 for Maersk. My name is Soren Skou. I'm the CEO, and I'm joined today by Carolina Dybeck Happe, our CFO.
Now, before we move into the business specific highlights, I would like to comment on the current trade environment. First, I want to make sure that it is clear that we don't believe that tariffs are good for the global economy and we do not welcome them, but with that being said the impact from the current U.S. China tariffs and trade tensions on global trade has been quite manageable for us so far.
Overall global container trade has increased around 2% in the first half of 2019. That puts it right in the middle of the 1% to 3% range that we laid out in our guidance at the start of the year and that's what we have been planning for when it comes to net working capacity as shown. U.S. imports have slowed, yes, but so far the drag from tariffs has been less than expected. U.S. imports from China is down around 7% in the first half, but Pacific trade overall grew 1% and total imports to the U.S. grew 2.5% in the first half.
Also European related trade where we are most exposed have seen strong volume growth in first half around 5%, in part because of trade diversion resulting from the U.S. China trade tensions. The impact on tariffs on trade is being moderated by a number of factors. The most important probably is that the consumer spending is what drives demand in our industry and consumer spending remains fairly robust in the U.S. supported by good labor markets and high consumer [indiscernible] confidence.
But secondly, I also want to say that the goods that are impacted by the tariffs in the U.S. they represent only around 4% of the U.S. consumer spending baskets. We are also seeing mitigation from exchange rates, stronger dollar against the RMB reduces the impact of tariffs on the price of imported goods and the dollar has weakened more than 10% against the – the RMB has weakened more than 10% against the U.S. dollar since the mid 2018.
We also believe that both Chinese exporters and U.S. importers have absorbed some of the tariff costs through lower margins and for sure sourcing patterns are changing imports of goods to the U.S. from outside of China have increased growing at close to double-digit in the first half. So new sourcing locations often entail higher freight rates and open up new opportunities for us to sell Logistics & Services processing.
And then finally there is quite some anecdotal evidence that tariffs are being circumvented to some extent by shipping stuff out of China to other destinations in Asia and then sending it on to the U.S. Looking forward, the impact of the tariff hike that was to 25% on the first 250 billion which was in April 2019 and that is at least 10% tariff on additional $300 billion of imports to China remains uncertain, not least because it seems to have been modified just this week.
If it all were to be implemented, we estimate it could reduce global trade growth by up to 1% at this point for the next year and as the IMF has pointed out further escalation could cause the global economy to slow further and that of course will be negative for us. It is understandable that there's a lot of focus on U.S. China trade tensions. However, I think it's also important to say that we should not lose sight of trade liberalization efforts being made elsewhere.

大家早上好,感谢您今天听取了马士基第二季度中期报告2019年的财报电话会议。我的名字是Soren Skou。我是首席执行官,我今天加入了我们的首席财务官Carolina Dybeck Happe。

现在,在我们进入业务特定亮点之前,我想评论当前的贸易环境。首先,我想确保我们不相信关税对全球经济有利,我们不欢迎它们,但据说当前美国中国关税和贸易紧张对全球的影响到目前为止,贸易对我们来说已经非常易于管理。

2019年上半年全球集装箱贸易总量增长了2%左右。这使我们在今年年初的指导中列出了1%至3%的范围,这就是我们的目标。如图所示,计划净工作能力。美国的进口已经放缓,是的,但到目前为止,关税的拖累已经低于预期。上半年美国从中国的进口下降约7%,但太平洋贸易总体增长1%,上半年对美国的进口总额增长2.5%。

此外,我们最受欢迎的欧洲相关贸易上半年的销量增长强劲,约为5%,部分原因是美国中国贸易紧张局势导致贸易转移。贸易关税对贸易的影响正在受到许多因素的影响。最重要的可能是消费者支出是推动我们行业需求的因素,美国消费者支出在良好的劳动力市场和高消费者[音频不清晰]的支持下仍然相当强劲。

但其次,我还想说,受美国关税影响的商品只占美国消费者支出篮子的4%左右。我们也看到汇率减缓,美元对人民币的走强降低了关税对进口商品价格的影响,美元兑美元汇率下跌超过10% - 人民币自美元兑美元汇率下跌超过10%以来2018年中期。

我们还认为,中国出口商和美国进口商都通过较低的利润吸收了部分关税成本,而且确保采购模式正在改变,从中国境外进口到美国的商品进口量在上半年接近两位数增长。因此,新的采购地点往往需要更高的运费,并为我们提供销售物流和服务处理的新机会。

最后,有一些轶事证据表明,通过将货物从中国运往亚洲其他目的地然后将其运往美国,可以在一定程度上规避关税。展望未来,关税上调对25%的影响在2019年4月的第一个2500亿美元,对中国进口3000亿美元至少10%的关税仍然不确定,尤其是因为它本周似乎已被修改。

如果这一切都得到落实,我们估计明年可能会使全球贸易增长率降低1%,而国际货币基金组织已指出进一步升级可能会导致全球经济进一步放缓,当然对我们不利。可以理解的是,很多人都关注美国的中国贸易紧张局势。但是,我认为同样重要的是,我们不应忽视其他地方正在进行的贸易自由化努力。

WTO data now actually indicates the trade flows that are subject to liberalization are about three times as high right now than before the start of the trade tensions. So that's outpacing the restrictive measures in U.S. China trade. Over time these measures will help mitigate the negative trade impact from the U.S. China trade tensions.
There are three that I would like to mention. First of all, in 2017 WTO made a trade facilitation agreement to reduce nontariff barriers such as things that are customs related and so on. More than half of WTO members have now ratified this. And at that time it was said that it could reduce trade costs by more than 14% on average and boost global trade by $1 trillion per year.
It's also important to note that the U.S. made trade agreements with Vietnam, with Japan and with Canada and a deal with Mexico [ph] is expected too. So including Brazil and Argentina is expected to be signed shortly. And then in the Pacific, what is now called the Comprehensive and Progression Agreement for transpacific partnership of 2018, it covers 11 countries, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. It accounts for 13.5% of global GDP and 500 million consumers where we have agreed or they have agreed to remove tariffs on goods and services and aim to remove also nontariff barriers. And China and the Philippines have indicated an interest in joining. So that is - those are some of the reasons for why the trade tensions have not impacted our business to the extent that many might have expected.
Now let me move on through the interim results financial highlights. In the second quarter we had a strong improvement in earnings and free cash flow and we grew the top line marginally. EBITDA was up 17% to $1.4 billion reflecting a margin of 14.1% driven mainly by the Ocean business that reported higher margins both compared to Q2 2018 and through the first quarter of 2019. We delivered a strong operational performance in Ocean in the quarter driven by volume increase of 1.4% giving a cost reduction of 3.5% and average freight rates going up by 1.5%.
Also our terminal business had a strong quarter with volume growth of 8.5% which leads to higher utilization and improved margins. The earnings, improvement in earnings translated into much better cash flow and our operating cash flow was up 86% compared to the same quarter last year and also cash conversion was at 86%. Our free cash flow before lease payments improved by $1 billion compared to Q2 of 2018 to $750 million. In the same quarter, we distributed just over $600 million to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks and at the same time we maintained a strong balance sheet with our investment grade rating being reaffirmed by the rating agencies.
The return on invested capital improved 3.1% from 0.1% in the second quarter late last year due to the improved financial performance. And then with this slide and seeing that our guidance around US$5 billion including IFRS 16 effects for the financing year of 2019 is maintained and we will later in the presentation elaborate more on the outlook for the second half year.

世界贸易组织的数据现在实际上表明,受制于自由化的贸易流量现在约为贸易紧张局势开始前的三倍。因此,这超过了美国对华贸易中的限制性措施。随着时间的推移,这些措施将有助于缓解美国中国贸易紧张局势对贸易的负面影响。

我想提一下三个。首先,2017年世界贸易组织制定了贸易便利化协议,以减少非关税壁垒,如与海关有关的事物等。超过一半的世贸组织成员现已批准这一点。当时据说它可以平均降低贸易成本14%以上,并使全球贸易额每年增加1万亿美元。

值得注意的是,美国与越南,日本和加拿大签订了贸易协定,并且预计与墨西哥达成协议[ph]。因此预计不久将包括巴西和阿根廷。然后在太平洋,现在被称为2018年跨太平洋伙伴关系的综合和进展协议,它涵盖11个国家,澳大利亚,文莱,加拿大,智利,日本,马来西亚,墨西哥,新西兰,秘鲁,新加坡和越南。它占全球GDP的13.5%和5亿消费者,我们已同意或已同意取消商品和服务的关税,并旨在消除非关税壁垒。中国和菲律宾表示有兴趣加入。这就是 - 这些是为什么贸易紧张局势没有影响到我们的业务的原因,这是许多人可能预期的。

现在让我继续介绍中期业绩财务摘要。在第二季度,我们的收益和自由现金流有了很大的改善,我们的收益略有增长。息税折旧摊销前利润增长17%至14亿美元,反映利润率为14.1%,主要是由于海洋业务报告的利润率较2018年第二季度和2019年第一季度均有所提高。我们在本季度实现了强劲的海运业绩。成交量增加1.4%,成本降低3.5%,平均运费上涨1.5%。

此外,我们的码头业务表现强劲,销量增长8.5%,从而提高了利用率并提高了利润率。盈利,盈利改善转化为更好的现金流,我们的经营现金流量比去年同期增长86%,现金转换率为86%。与2018年第二季度相比,我们在租赁付款前的自由现金流量增加了10亿美元,达到7.5亿美元。在同一季度,我们通过股息和股票回购向股东分配了超过6亿美元,同时我们保持了强劲的资产负债表,评级机构重申了我们的投资等级评级。

由于财务业绩改善,投资资本回报率从去年年底第二季度的0.1%上升3.1%。然后通过这张幻灯片,我们看到我们的指引大约在50亿美元左右,包括2019年融资年度的国际财务报告准则第16号影响,我们将在后面的报告中详细说明下半年的前景。

Now when we look at the half year result it is the same story. We had little bit of more top line growth $1.6 billion to $19.2 billion. EBITDA was up 24% to $2.6 billion which is an improvement of exactly $500 million reflecting a margin of 13.5%. Operating cash flow also for the half year almost doubled with an increase of 95% compared to last year and cash flow generation came in at 102% while free cash flow before lease payments was positively impacted by the sale of Total shares and improved from negative $400 million last year to positive to $4.2 billion. We have reduced our net interest bearing debt from $7.6 billion to $12.9 billion compared to the end of Q2 2018 supported by cash proceeds from the sale of Total shares and strong operating cash flows.
Now let me move to transformation. We have, as you are well aware, started to report on these four transformation metrics, and I guess, what I can say is that we are quite pleased with two of them, development two of them, cash return on invested capital came in at 6.9%. That's up from a negative 1.4% last year and we also are happy to say that we can declare victory in terms of harvesting synergies of $1 billion from the acquisition of Hamburg Süd and the integration of Logistics & Services at the end of this quarter, six months earlier than expected/.
Our gross profit growth was reasonable in Logistics & Services at offer at 4.9%, but of course the base is very small here. And then finally, non-Ocean revenue actually slightly declined and when adjusted for sale of container factors grew by 2%, so this is an area where we in the coming quarters will aim to do better.
And with that, I'll turn it over to Carolina.

现在,当我们看半年结果时,情况就是这样。我们的收入增长了16亿美元到192亿美元。息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)上涨24%至26亿美元,相当于5亿美元的改善,反映了13.5%的利润率。半年的经营现金流量也几乎翻了一番,与去年同期相比增长了95%,现金流量产生了102%,而租赁付款前的自由现金流量受到Total股票出售的正面影响,并从400美元的负增长中获益去年的百万美元为42亿美元。与2018年第二季度末相比,我们已将净计息债务从76亿美元减少至129亿美元,这得益于出售Total股票的现金收益和强劲的经营现金流。

现在让我转向转型。正如您所知,我们已经开始报告这四个转型指标,我想,我可以说,我们对他们中的两个非常满意,开发其中两个,投资资金的现金回报率来自6.9%。这比去年的负1.4%有所上升,我们也很高兴地说,我们可以宣布从收购HamburgSüd获得10亿美元的协同效应以及本季度末物流与服务的整合,比预期早几个月/。

我们的物流和服务的毛利增长是合理的,报价为4.9%,但当然基数非常小。最后,非海洋收入实际上略有下降,而当出售集装箱因素调整后增长2%时,这是我们未来几个季度将要做得更好的一个领域。

有了它,我会把它交给卡罗来纳州。

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Thank you, Soren. And then turning to our financial highlights. Looking at our financial highlights for the second quarter of 2019 you can see from this slide that we reported improvement across all our financials compared to last year. We grew revenue by 0.6% with increase in both Ocean and Terminals & Towage segment while Logistics & Services was on par.
Our focus continues to be on improving profitability across the businesses and we can see this from the EBITDA improvement of 17% in the second quarter for 2019 and EBITDA margin improved with the full 200 basis points to 14.1 from 12.1. EBIT also improved to over 400 million compared to only 65 million last year in the same quarter and the EBIT margin is now on 4.3% compared to 0.7% last year and the underlying profit is $134 million and you compare that to last year we have only had $50 million and this despite higher net financial expenses and that is related to no longer having dividends from the Total shares that we had in our books last year. So for the first half of 2019 underlying profit was $65 million compared to a loss of more than $300 last year.
Next slide, looking at the CapEx. For the second quarter, gross CapEx spent was $445 million and if we compared that to a year ago, this is basically half as compared to Q2 in 2018 and we maintained our CapEx guidance of around $2.2 billion for 2019. And that is significantly below the CapEx level we saw in 2017 and 2018 with $3.2 billion and $4 billion respectively. It is also important to keep track of is our contractual capital commitments, basically CapEx that we have already committed ourselves to spend in the future.
Today, after Q2 we have 1.9 in the books, and that is $1 billion less than a year ago and to put in perspective compared to two ago that book looked like 5.8 billion, so significantly lower level of committed to CapEx. And the commitment we have is mainly related to terminal concessions. And I would like to reiterate that we have no plans of ordering any new large vessels contain at least 2020. And I expect we can provide you with the capital guidance for 2021 after or in relation to our Q3 reporting.
Turning to the cash flow development then, here clearly we have also made very good progress. If I look at the operating cash flow, it increased to $1.2 billion, so double where we were a year ago. The cash flow from operations was positively impacted by around $300 million in net working capital movement as well of course as the increase in EBITDA. And therefore we had a really nice cash conversion of 86%.
And for the second quarter the free cash flow just shy of $750 million which really reflects the improved earnings, strong cash conversion and basically halved CapEx. And then we adjust for capitalized lease payments related to IFRS 16 and the fee cash flow then ends on $0.4 billion plus.
We are very pleased with the free cash flow we generated both in Q1 and Q2. Our cash flow will be impacted in the second half though of preparations toward IMO 2020 as we have said previously and that is really because we are starting to buy more expensive fuel towards the end of the third quarter and in the fourth quarter. So that will impact our working capital, but it will, well I will say it hits our working capital this year, but not really the cost base since we will not start to burn the fuel until late December and then next year and next year.

谢谢,索伦。然后转向我们的财务亮点。看看我们在2019年第二季度的财务摘要,您可以从这张幻灯片中看到,与去年相比,我们报告了所有财务状况的改善情况。随着海运和码头和拖车业务的增长,我们的收入增长了0.6%,而物流和服务业则同样增长。

我们的重点仍然是提高各业务的盈利能力,我们可以看到2019年第二季度EBITDA改善17%,EBITDA利润率从12.1提高了200个基点至14.1。息税前利润也增加到超过4亿,而去年同期只有6500万,息税前利润现在为4.3%,而去年为0.7%,基本利润为1.34亿美元,而你与去年相比我们只有虽然净财务费用较高,但这与我们去年账面上的总股票不再有股息有关,因此有5000万美元。因此,对于2019年上半年,基本利润为6500万美元,而去年损失超过300美元。

下一张幻灯片,查看资本支出。第二季度,资本支出总支出为4.45亿美元,如果我们将其与一年前相比,这基本上是2018年第二季度的一半,我们对2019年的资本支出预测维持在22亿美元左右。这远远低于我们在2017年和2018年看到的资本支出水平分别为32亿美元和40亿美元。跟踪我们的合同资本承诺也很重要,基本上我们已承诺在未来花费资本支出。

今天,在第二季度之后,我们的账面数量为1.9,比一年前减少了10亿美元,与之前两年相比,这本书看起来像是58亿,因此对CapEx的承诺水平显着降低。我们的承诺主要与终端特许权有关。我想重申,我们没有计划订购任何至少包含2020年的新大型船舶。我希望我们能够在我们的第三季度报告之后或之后为您提供2021年的资本指导。

谈到现金流的发展,这里显然我们也取得了很好的进展。如果我看一下运营现金流,它就会增加到12亿美元,这是我们一年前的两倍。运营现金流受到净营运资金流动约3亿美元的影响,当然还有EBITDA的增长。因此我们的现金转换率非常高,达到86%。

第二季度的自由现金流量仅为7.5亿美元,这实际上反映了收益的改善,强劲的现金转换以及资本支出基本上减半。然后我们调整与国际财务报告准则第16号相关的资本化租赁付款,然后费用现金流最终达到4亿美元以上。

我们对第一季度和第二季度产生的自由现金流感到非常满意。正如我们之前所说,我们的现金流将在下半年受到IMO 2020准备工作的影响,这是因为我们在第三季度末和第四季度开始购买更昂贵的燃料。因此,这将影响我们的营运资金,但我会说它会影响我们今年的营运​​资金,但实际上不是成本基础,因为我们不会在12月底以及明年和明年开始燃烧燃料。

Next slide, and looking at debt. The net interest bearing debt was $12.9 billion, so basically flat from the quarter before. So we had good free cash flow and then we, in the same quarter we paid annual dividend, did the share buybacks and had some more capital lease obligations. I would say an important measure though is this year-over-year and last year we were over $20 billion in debt and year end we were $15 billion. So you can see that we have significantly deleveraged our company. And also good news, Standard & Poor's lifted the outlook on our credit rating and confirmed BBB with stable outlook now in the second quarter.
Consolidated financial income, well here on this slide we have summarized all the financial KPIs and I've touched most of them. So I'll just comment then on the financial costs. And in the second quarter the increase slightly compared to second quarter a year ago and well we had lower financing costs now because we are significantly lower debt level, but last year we had the Total shares and the dividend that we received from them comes into this line in financial items.
And if we take the next slide, the same goes for first half. I've touched most of the KPIs and basically same comment also on the financial costs here, that they are slightly higher compared to last year, although we have lower debt. So we have lower interest, but on the other hand we have no dividends this year from the Total shares expected.
And with that, I will hand over to you Soren to cover the segments.

下一张幻灯片,看着债务。净息息债务为129亿美元,因此与上一季度基本持平。因此,我们拥有良好的自由现金流,然后我们在同一季度支付年度股息,进行股票回购并获得更多资本租赁义务。我想说一个重要的衡量指标是去年同期,去年我们的债务超过200亿美元,年末我们的债务为150亿美元。所以你可以看到我们已经对公司进行了大量的去杠杆化。同样好消息是,标准普尔提升了我们的信用评级前景,并确认BBB在第二季度的前景稳定。

综合财务收入,在这张幻灯片上,我们已经总结了所有的财务关键绩效指标,我已经触及了大部分财务收入。所以我只想评论一下财务成本。在第二季度,与一年前的第二季度相比略有增长,而且我们现在的融资成本较低,因为我们的债务水平显着降低,但去年我们获得了总股票,而我们从他们那里收到的股息也进入了这个财务项目中的行。

如果我们采取下一张幻灯片,上半年同样如此。我已经触及了大部分关键绩效指标,基本上也同样评论了这里的财务成本,它们与去年相比略高,尽管我们的债务较低。所以我们的利息较低,但另一方面,我们今年没有从预期的总股数中获得股息。

有了这个,我会交给你Soren来报道细分。

Soren Skou

Yes, thank you. And I'll start with Ocean. We grew a lot last year with the acquisition of Hamburg Süd and as we have earlier said also at the first quarter earnings call that we are focusing this year on improving profitability in Ocean. In the second quarter both revenue and profitability grew. EBITDA improved by 25% compared to Q2 of 2018, and the margin improved, EBITDA margin improved by 260 basis points to 14.9%. This improvement was driven both by higher volumes, increases in freight rates, and very importantly, by improved unit costs as the total, our total cost base was on par with higher loaded volumes and an increase in [indiscernible] bookings.
In the second quarter we launched the Maersk Spot product which new [ph] product that has a fixed commitment on both sides and this is within all in price, fixed at time of booking and this is an important step in the digital journey of the company. We also continue to prepare for the low sulfur fuel regulations starting in January. We have worked hard and very successful in terms of getting fuel adjustment clauses into all contracts. We are right now at 90% coverage on that and on the fuel supply side we are testing some scrubber technology We are making supply contracts for low sulfur fuel and we believe generally and we are reducing fuel consumption very importantly to mitigate the extra costs, so we believe we are well prepared at this point in time.
Now on freight rates, freight rates increased 1.5% driven by continued focus on improving margins, combined with good recovery on the fuel. Our average freight rate is of course an average of the trade mix we have between east-west, north-south and intra and where the intra trades have the lowest freight in total amount. Volumes grew 5.4% in interest rates which means our average freight weight is impacted downward.
We also did grow 14% intra-Asia which has lower freight rates than we see in intra-Europe and intra-America which further track down the freight rates on the overall intra-routes. This is also part of the explanation why our average freight did not increase as much as the CAC [ph] [indiscernible] which many use as a proxy for our freight rates. Total volumes increased 1.4% it is basically trimmed by backhaul volumes which increased 3%, and all volumes increased about 0.6%. We estimate for the quarter that global container volumes have grown around 2% down from around 4% last year. That means that we are now in this quarter growing largely in line with the market.
North American trades were of course impacted by trade tensions and modest growth in the U.S. private consumption and Europe was positively impacted by higher demand for refrigerated goods. In North-South volume was driven. As a mixed bag growth in Africa and west central Asia, but declines in Latin America and also in mainly due to weak market demand.
We did also in the second quarter see good and positive effects from the reorganization that we did at the beginning of the year focusing also on moving and pricing out of regionally which in combination with a strong network operation led to higher volumes. And we had a more stable network in the quarter and that enabled us to take more backhaul volumes which is the main reason for the strong backhaul volume growth.

是的,谢谢。我将从海洋开始。收购汉堡南美后,我们去年增长了很多,而且我们早些时候也在第一季度的财报电话会议上表示,我们今年的重点是提高海洋的盈利能力。在第二季度,收入和盈利能力均有所增长。与2018年第二季度相比,EBITDA提高了25%,利润率提高,EBITDA利润率提高了260个基点,达到14.9%。这一改善的原因是产量增加,运费增加,而且非常重要的是,单位成本的提高,总成本基数与较高的装载量和[音频不清晰]预订量的增加相同。

在第二季度,我们推出了马士基现货产品,该产品具有双方固定承诺的新[ph]产品,这是在价格范围内,在预订时确定,这是公司数字化旅程中的重要一步。 。我们还将继续为1月开始的低硫燃料法规做准备。我们在将燃料调整条款纳入所有合同方面努力并取得了很大成功。我们现在正处于90%的覆盖率,在燃料供应方面,我们正在测试一些洗涤器技术我们正在制定低硫燃料的供应合同,我们一般认为,我们正在减少燃料消耗非常重要,以减轻额外成本,所以我们相信我们已做好充分准备。

现在按运费计算,由于持续关注提高利润率以及燃料的良好复苏,运费上涨了1.5%。我们的平均运费当然是我们在东西,南北和内部之间的贸易组合的平均值,而且内部交易的总运费最低。利率增长5.4%,这意味着我们的平均货运重量受到影响。

我们在亚洲内部也增长了14%,其运费低于我们在欧洲内部和美国内部的运费,这进一步降低了整体内部航线的运费。这也是解释为什么我们的平均运费没有像CAC [ph] [音频不清晰]那样增加的原因的一部分,CAC [ph] [音频不清晰]被许多人用来代替我们的运费。总量增加1.4%,基本上由回程量增加3%,所有量增加约0.6%。我们估计本季度全球集装箱量增长约2%,低于去年的4%左右。这意味着我们现在在本季度的增长基本上与市场一致。

北美贸易当然受到贸易紧张局势和美国私人消费适度增长的影响,欧洲受到冷藏品需求增加的积极影响。南北地区的数量受到推动。由于非洲和中西亚的混合袋增长,但拉丁美洲的下滑也主要是由于市场需求疲软。

我们在第二季度也看到了我们在年初进行的重组带来的良好和积极影响,这些重组也集中在区域性的移动和定价上,这与强大的网络运营相结合导致了更高的产量。我们在本季度拥有一个更稳定的网络,这使我们能够获得更多的回程量,这是回程量增长强劲的主要原因。

Now on cost, total operating costs were unchanged as I already said and we saw higher number of slots four five years at partners. Higher network costs from slots out of expenses were partly offset by lower container handling cost and ForEx FX impact. Container handling costs were positively impacted by lower positioning cost due to high backhaul volumes, lower turnover costs and overall more stable network.
Unit cost at fixed bunker improved 3.5% following higher volumes, network improvements and FX impact. For the half year unit cost has improved 2%. This is in line with our ambition to reduce unit cost by 1% to 2% per year. Bunker cost was unchanged despite an increase in the bunker price of 8.5%. This improved, this is the fact that we could keep the cost stead was that we were able to improve bunker consumption with 7.5 – bunker consumption declined by 7.5% due to improved network and higher liability, so much better fuel efficiency.
Moving on to Logistics & Services, revenue was on par, positively impacted by increasing revenue in one of the strategic important segments for our supply chain management, but this was offset declining revenue in sea and air freight. Gross profit improved by almost 5% positively impacted by higher intermodal warehousing and custom house storage [ph] profits and EBITDA improved by $9 million. At the beginning of the year we merged the organization for commercial, both logistics and ocean and this is on track and progressing as planned.
Now I'll move on to supply chain management in particular. Volumes in supply chain management increased slightly. Gross profit decreased by $2 million mainly impacted by FX and that made the margins decline slightly. Intermodal revenue was on par positively impacted by increasing volumes and geographical mix negatively impacted by FX. Both volumes and margins decreased in here and sea freight forwarding negatively impacted by weaker demand, but also decisions we have made to exit certain countries. Our EBIT conversion ratio was stable at around 9.3%.
On Terminals & Towage, we reported revenue increase of 13% with gateway terminals contributing with increased revenue and EBITDA, while our towage activity faced headwinds mainly related to lower activities in high margin areas and negative impact from the development in FX. EBITDA in gateway terminals increased 11% driven by increased volumes, storage income and utilization, but it was partly offset by some one-off items leading to a slightly lower margin.
The one-off items and I want to be very clear here, were a number of things, such as some rebate schemes we had to provide for just an important is a bit in New York and some electricity issues we had in Moin [ph] and a few other things, and I want to be very clear when saying that we expected to improve margins in the second half with higher utilization we now have on our terminal network.
We are moving forward with the construction on the remaining three terminal projects we have as planned. Tema in Ghana did become operational in June and will be officially opened later this year and Vado in Italy we expect opening towards the very end of 2019.

现在按成本计算,总运营成本没有变化,正如我已经说过的那样,我们在合作伙伴处看到了四年五的插槽数量。来自费用的更高网络成本部分被较低的集装箱处理成本和ForEx FX影响所抵消。由于高回程量,较低的周转成本和整体更稳定的网络,集装箱处理成本受到较低定位成本的积极影响。

在数量增加,网络改善和外汇影响增加后,固定燃料仓的单位成本提高了3.5%。半年单位成本提高了2%。这符合我们每年将单位成本降低1%至2%的目标。尽管燃油价格上涨8.5%,但燃油成本仍未改变。这种情况有所改善,我们可以保持成本稳定,因为我们能够通过7.5改善燃料消耗量 - 由于网络改善和更高的负债,燃料效率提高了7.5%,燃料消耗下降了7.5%。

转向物流与服务,收入与我们供应链管理的战略重要部分之一的收入增加有关,但这抵消了海运和空运收入下降的积极影响。由于更高的多式联运仓储和定制房屋存储[ph]利润以及EBITDA提高了900万美元,毛利润增长了近5%。在今年年初,我们将商业,物流和海洋组织合并,这正在按计划进行。

现在我将继续进行供应链管理。供应链管理量略有增加。毛利减少200万美元,主要受外汇影响,使利润率略有下降。多式联运收入受到外汇增长和受外汇负面影响的地理组合的积极影响。这里的产量和利润都有所下降,而海运货代对需求疲软产生了负面影响,但也决定了我们退出某些国家的决定。我们的EBIT转换率稳定在9.3%左右。

在Terminals&Towage,我们报告收入增长13%,网关终端带来收入增加和EBITDA,而我们的拖航活动面临阻力,主要与高利润区域的活动减少和外汇发展的负面影响有关。网关终端的EBITDA增长了11%,受到销量增长,存储收入和利用率的提升,但部分被一些一次性项目所抵消,导致利润率略有下降。

一次性的项目,我想在这里非常清楚,有很多东西,比如我们必须提供的一些回扣计划只是一个重要的在纽约,我们在Moin有一些电力问题[ph]还有其他一些事情,我想说的是,我们希望通过我们的终端网络提高利用率来提高下半年的利润率。

我们正在按计划继续建设剩余的三个码头项目。加纳的Tema确实在6月投入运营,并将于今年晚些时候正式开业,意大利的Vado预计将于2019年底开业。

Now digging a little deeper into terminals, we are quite pleased with the volume development, throughput increased 6.4% in the second quarter of 2019. External customers actually grew 7.6% and Ocean grew 4.1% which I think is a good testament to the competitiveness of APMT. Revenue per move increased 7.4% reflecting higher volumes in North America and revenue from storage [ph] in West Africa and the ramp-up in Moin, while cost to move increased only 4.7% mainly by higher volumes in high-cost terminals, this was partly offset by increased realization which increased full 9 percentage points to 79% driven by the strong volume growth, capacity growth and some capacity reductions in North America and ramp up in Moin.
Also our harbor towage activities measured on number of chop-chop [ph] screw just about 2% with high activity in the Americas and Asia, Middle East and Africa and with some lower volumes in Europe and Australia. Despite this, earnings declined mainly impacted by lower activities in high margin areas, some one-off items, and FX partly offset by volume increases.
And then I'll finish this section with manufacturing. We – mass container industry reported a decline in revenues from 249 to 130 to million it is purely impacted by the fact that we have exited the dry container business and also had lower revenue from the reefer business after the closure of the reefer factory in Chile. EBITDA improved however to $16 million from negative $6 million. However, we have to say that in the second quarter of 2018 we had a restructuring cost of $18 million in the numbers from the closing of the factory in Chile.
In the supply revenue was on par at $70 million but EBITDA improved to $5 million from a negative $3 reflecting somewhat higher rates in the subsea vessel segment. Subsea supply Business segment.
And with that, I'll hand over to Carolina, who will talk about the guidance.

现在我们对终端进行了更深入的挖掘,我们对产量开发感到非常满意,2019年第二季度的吞吐量增长了6.4%。外部客户实际增长了7.6%,海洋增长了4.1%,我认为这是对竞争力的良好证明。 APMT。移动收入增长7.4%,原因是北美的销量增加,西非的存储收入[Ph]和Moin的增长,而移动成本仅增加4.7%,主要是因为高成本终端的销量增加,这是部分被增加的实现所抵消,由于北美强劲的产量增长,产能增长和部分产能减少以及Moin的增长,实现增加了9个百分点至79%。

此外,我们的港口拖曳活动以剁碎[ph]螺钉的数量计算,仅约2%,在美洲和亚洲,中东和非洲具有较高的活动,并且在欧洲和澳大利亚的数量较少。尽管如此,盈利下降的主要原因是高利润区域的活动减少,一些一次性项目以及外汇部分被数量增加所抵消。

然后我将用制造完成这一部分。我们 - 大规模集装箱行业报告收入从249减少到130到100万,这纯粹受到我们退出干货集装箱业务的影响,并且在智利冷藏工厂关闭后冷藏业务的收入也较低。然而,EBITDA从600万美元的负值改善至1600万美元。但是,我们不得不说,在2018年第二季度,我们在智利工厂关闭时的重组成本为1800万美元。

在供应方面,收入相当于7,000万美元,但EBITDA从负3美元提高至500万美元,反映了海底船舶部门的利率略高。海底供应业务部门。

有了这个,我将交给卡罗来纳州,后者将谈论这个指导。

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Thank you, Soren.
Yes, then to the guidance for 2019, in A.P. Møller - Mærsk we expect to still have an EBITYDA of around $5 billion for 2019. The organic volume growth in Ocean is still expected to be in line with estimated average market growth of 1% to 3% for 2019, but bear in mind our focus is profitability. We expect to see lower rates in the second half of 2019 compared to the second half of 2018 due to the strong development we saw last year partly driven by an implementation of the emergency bunker fuel surcharges.
So we expect on a year-on-year basis that cost will be lower in the second half of 2019 in Ocean as highlighted earlier by certain the market development in the first half year has been in line with our expectations, but of course we still see the outlook continues to be a subject to considerable uncertainties due to weaker macroeconomic conditions and other external factors.
Please remember, and as you can see from the sensitivity table on this side, the volatility related to changes in freight rates continues to be high and impacts EBITDA by $700 million if average freight rates increased by $100 per FFE, basically 5% deviation equivalent. Guidance on gross CapEx is maintained at around $2.2 billion. We still expect high cash conversion in 2019 as well.
And with that we will open up for questions.

谢谢,索伦。

是的,那么对于2019年的指导,在APMøller - Mærsk,我们预计2019年的EBITYDA仍将达到约50亿美元。海洋的有机产量增长预计仍将与估计的平均市场增长1%持平。 2019年3%,但请记住我们的重点是盈利能力。我们预计2019年下半年与2018年下半年的比率较低,原因是我们去年的强劲发展,部分原因是实施了紧急燃油附加费。

因此,我们预计2019年下半年海洋的成本将会逐年下降,因为上半年的市场发展肯定符合我们的预期,但当然我们仍然由于较弱的宏观经济条件和其他外部因素,前景继续受到相当大的不确定性影响。

请记住,从这方面的敏感性表中可以看出,与运费变化相关的波动性仍然很高,如果平均运费每FFE增加100美元,基本上相差5%,则对EBITDA的影响为7亿美元。总资本支出的指引维持在约22亿美元。我们仍然期望2019年的现金转换率也很高。

有了它,我们将开放提问。

问答环节

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And the first question is from Mark [indiscernible] from Barclays. Please go ahead, your line is open.

谢谢。 [操作员说明]第一个问题来自巴克莱的Mark [indiscernible]。 请继续,你的线路是开放的。

身份不明的分析师

Oh good morning thank you. Two questions really, first of all your return on invested capital just over 3% annualized. Is overseas still a long way below the 7.5% target, what do you think what do you think has to happen from here to get you up to and achieving that target across the cycle?

哦早上好,谢谢你。 真的有两个问题,首先你的投入资本回报率仅超过3%。 海外距离7.5%的目标还有很长的路要走,您认为您认为从这里开始实现该目标的目标是什么?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Okay, so we'll start with the first question, then on ROIC. Yes, we are on 3% now and 3.1% of course compared to zero last year. We are happy with the improvement, but not satisfied and I think that's also why we have added the cash ROIC measurements to our transformation KPIs where you can see that we are almost on seven compares to a negative minus 1.5 last year. So I mean the practicality of it is we still have big Ocean business so that needs to continue to performance and we need to keep the capital discipline in the Ocean.
And we need to continue to develop the Terminals & Towage, I would say in the same direction as now and then we want to add to the L&S part which sort of gets our Ocean customers to love us a little bit more and be more stable, and therefore also get return in that part and that is not as CapEx intense as the other part of the business. So I mean, those are our main ways forward and that is how we see our road coming to our targeted 7.5.

好的,我们将从第一个问题开始,然后是ROIC。 是的,我们现在占3%,当然比去年为3.1%。 我们对改进感到满意,但不满意,我认为这也是为什么我们将现金ROIC测量值添加到我们的转型KPI中,您可以看到我们几乎与去年的负值减去1.5相比为7。 所以我的意思是它的实用性是我们仍然有大型的海洋业务,所以需要继续表现,我们需要保持在海洋的资本纪律。

我们需要继续开发Terminals&Towage,我想说的是和现在一样的方向,然后我们想要添加到L&S部分,让我们的Ocean客户更爱我们,更稳定, 因此,在该部分也获得了回报,这并不像CapEx那样强烈,而是与业务的其他部分一样。 所以我的意思是,这些是我们前进的主要方式,也就是我们如何看待我们的目标7.5。

身份不明的分析师

And do you see the buildup of logistics as involving some quite sizable acquisitions or do you think it is just going to be a series of further small bottoms?

您是否认为物流的积累涉及一些相当大的收购,或者您认为它只是一系列进一步的小型底部?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Well, I would say that considering the size of our Ocean business and us wanting to have a more balanced picture, I would say we will have serial of small acquisitions, but also over time a couple of medium ones as expected.

好吧,我想说,考虑到我们海洋业务的规模以及我们希望拥有更加平衡的图景,我会说我们会进行一系列的小型收购,但也会随着时间的推移出现一些中等收益。

身份不明的分析师

Okay, thank you. And my second question was on CapEx obviously. You know, you are running at $2.2 billion this year against a pre IFRS 16 D&I [ph] charge of about $3 billion. How long do you think you can keep it under that sort of replacement level if that's the best way to describe it? And if you took a kind of five-year view, where do you think it would stand against depreciation?

好的谢谢你。 我的第二个问题显然是关于资本支出。 你知道,今年你的国际财务报告准则第16号D&I [ph]费用约为30亿美元。 如果这是描述它的最佳方式,您认为可以将它保持在这种替代水平下多久? 如果你采取了五年的观点,你认为它会在哪里反对折旧?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Well, I would say, the guidance that we have is for this year, and as of next quarter we will be able to say more about 2020. But of course, my strong intention is that we continue on a good trajectory when it comes to CapEx, and I think after that we will take it as it comes. So I don't want to give over the cycle view on that.

好吧,我想说,我们今年的指导意见是今年,而且到了下个季度,我们将能够更多地谈论2020年。但当然,我的强烈意图是我们继续保持良好的发展轨迹。 CapEx,我认为在那之后我们会接受它。 所以我不想放弃周期视图。

Soren Skou

Maybe I could just add to that. There is a reason for why we have this cash return on invested capital as one of our transformation metrics, because that will force a lot of CapEx discipline.

也许我可以添加到那个。 为什么我们将投资资本的现金回报作为我们的转型指标之一是有原因的,因为这将迫使很多资本支出纪律。

身份不明的分析师

Okay, that's great, thank you both very much.

好的,那很好,非常感谢你们。

会议主持员

Next question is from Lars Heindorff from SEB. Please go ahead, your line is open.

下一个问题来自SEB的Lars Heindorff。 请继续,你的线路是开放的。

Lars Heindorff

Yes, thank you. Also, a question regarding the non-Ocean parts. You mentioned in the presentation that you have been seeing a reduction in volumes both in sea and air [ph], but as far as I can see you also seeing quite a bit of reduction in the yields both in Ocean and in air. I'm just wondering how or what is the reason for this, because this is a trend that has been going on now for a number of quarters and it doesn't really coincide with what we see from some of the other freight forwarders out there? That's the first one.

是的,谢谢。 另外,关于非海洋部分的问题。 你在演讲中提到你已经看到海洋和空气中的体积减少[ph],但据我所知,你也看到海洋和空中的产量都有相当大的降低。 我只是想知道这是怎么或者原因是什么,因为这是一个现在已经持续了几个季度的趋势,它与我们从其他一些货运代理商看到的情况并不完全吻合。? 那是第一个。

Soren Skou

What's going on in Damco freight forwarding right now is that we are cleaning up the portfolio of business as we have separated out the year - out the company and that has some negative consequences on the P&L, but it's something that is important that we do.

Damco货运代理业务正在进行的是我们正在清理业务组合,因为我们已经分拆出公司,这对损益表有一些负面影响,但这对我们来说非常重要。

Lars Heindorff

Okay. But the impact is still not visible on the conversion ratio?

好的。 但转换率仍未见影响?

Soren Skou

We have also - I think we have also taken some various debt provisions and things like that are impacting the numbers.

我们也 - 我认为我们也采取了一些不同的债务条款,这些都会影响数字。

Lars Heindorff

Okay. The second one is regarding the Ocean part. If you take the nominal capacity that you have reported by the end of the quarter, it's up by 2.1% compared to Q2 last year. But since the end of Q2, as far as I can see you have continued to ramp up and is now at a run rate, which is actually well above 4%. Most of that increase, as far as I can see still is caused by you taking in more charter capacity.
Could you elaborate a little bit about sort of your capacity plans? You have previously stated that you want to keep capacity flat, which probably means that you need to get rid of some capacity that needs to - you have need to obtain that target for the full year. And how you think about that increase in capacity and the impact into Q3 and Q4?

好的。 第二个是关于海洋部分。 如果您采用本季度末报告的名义产能,则与去年第二季度相比增长了2.1%。 但是自从第二季度结束以来,据我所知,你继续增加,现在处于运行速度,实际上远高于4%。 大多数增加,据我所知仍然是由于你承担更多的包机能力。

你能详细说明一下你的容量计划吗? 您之前曾说过,您希望保持容量持平,这可能意味着您需要摆脱一些需要的容量 - 您需要获得全年的目标。 您如何看待容量的增加以及对Q3和Q4的影响?

Soren Skou

Yes, we have a - we have said and still absolutely also mean that we want to be around 4 million TEU of deployed capacity. Right now, we have invested and we are meeting some extra challenge because we have a number of ships out in shipyards for retrofitting of scrubbers. And we also have invested a little more in - in slow steaming, invested a little more capacity and slow steaming this year.
That's why the number - the absolute number is a little bit up. But - but, we absolutely want to remain disciplined on capacity and have - stick to our guidance of around 4 million TEU of deployed capacity because it helps us drive utilization up and unit cost down. So there is no change in that.

是的,我们有 - 我们已经说过并且仍然绝对意味着我们希望大约有400万TEU的部署容量。 目前,我们已经投资,我们正在遇到一些额外的挑战,因为我们在造船厂有许多船只用于改造洗涤器。 我们还投入了更多资金 - 慢速蒸汽,投入更多的容量,并减缓今年的蒸汽。

这就是为什么数字 - 绝对数字有点上升。 但是 - 但是,我们绝对希望在容量方面保持纪律,并坚持我们对大约400万TEU部署容量的指导,因为它可以帮助我们提高利用率并降低单位成本。 所以没有变化。

Lars Heindorff

Okay. And then the last one is still a little bit maybe regarding the capacity developments, because I assume that part of the reason for the very significant improvement in the bunker efficiency that we have seen in the last two quarters, is probably caused by the reductions that we've seen chartered capacity, which means you have more owned vessels normally larger and more efficient in terms of fuel, but the ramp up that we have seen now here in terms of chartered capacity, how will that impact your efficiency on bunker and also on the costs going into the second half?

好的。 然后关于容量发展的最后一点仍然是一点点,因为我认为我们在过去两个季度看到的燃油效率显着改善的部分原因可能是由于减少 我们已经看到了特许容量,这意味着你拥有更多拥有的船只通常更大,更有效的燃料,但我们现在看到的特许容量增加,这将如何影响你的燃料效率,以及 关于进入下半年的成本?

Soren Skou

We expect to continue to improve fuel efficiency. There are many actually leave us to that that are important one. One is of course speed of the network and in the past couple of quarters, we have been able to significantly improve the stability or reliability of the network and that means that we are - when the ships are on time, they - they spend less periods where they have to speed up in order to meet port days or deadlines and that's very good for fuel efficiency.
There is also, of course, the structural speed reduction was slow steaming that also improves fuel efficiency. But it's, there are many, many factors that go into this and we manage, of course, also the charter ships as much as we possibly can doing everything we can to make sure that they don't use more fuel than what is needed. So this is a good handful of different levers that we are applying to improve fuel efficiency and it is even more important as 2020 is looming because the best thing we can do in terms of mitigating the impact of that is of course is to use less fuel.

我们期望继续提高燃油效率。实际上有许多人离开我们那是重要的。一个当然是网络的速度,在过去几个季度,我们已经能够显着提高网络的稳定性或可靠性,这意味着我们 - 当船舶准时,他们 - 他们花费更少的时间他们必须加快速度,以满足港口日或截止日期,这对提高燃油效率非常有利。

当然,结构速度降低也是缓慢的蒸汽,也提高了燃料效率。但是,有很多很多因素可以解决这个问题,当然,我们也会管理包机,尽可能地尽我们所能来确保他们不会使用比所需更多的燃料。因此,我们正在应用这些不同的杠杆来提高燃油效率,而且随着2020年即将到来更为重要因为我们在减轻其影响方面所做的最好的事情当然是减少使用燃料。

Lars Heindorff

All right, thank you.

好哒。谢谢你们。

会议主持员

Next question is from David Kerstens from Jefferies. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

下一个问题来自Jefferies的David Kerstens。 请继续,你的线路现已开放。

David Kerstens

Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. First question on your cash return program of $1.5 billion. When would you feel comfortable to lift that number closer to the original target of 5 billion, now that your balance sheet has deleveraged quite substantially and your free cash flow is strongly improving and also credit rating outlook that is now stable? That's my first question, please. It was mainly because of the uncertainty around IMO 2020 that you keep it at a relatively lower rate for the moment?

非常感谢你。 大家早上好。 关于您的现金返还计划的第一个问题是15亿美元。 现在您的资产负债表已经大幅减少并且您的自由现金流量大幅提升以及现在信用评级前景稳定,您何时能够将这个数字提升到接近50亿的原始目标? 请问这是我的第一个问题。 主要是因为IMO 2020的不确定性让你暂时保持相对较低的速度?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Well, I would stick sort of to the answer I said in the last quarter, we will come back with that. We will execute on the existing program, which we have said is up to $1.5 billion within maximum 15 months and within that timeframe, but obviously towards the end of it, we will come back with more information on possible further steps.

好吧,我会坚持我在上个季度所说的答案,我们会回来的。 我们将执行现有的计划,我们已经说过,在最长的15个月内以及在此时间范围内,该计划最多可达15亿美元,但显然在最后阶段,我们将回来提供有关可能的进一步措施的更多信息。

David Kerstens

Understood. And then the second question, maybe can you quantify the working capital impact that you anticipate in the second half of the year from the higher priced bunker purchases?

了解。 然后是第二个问题,也许您可以量化下半年因价格较高的燃料购买而预期的营运资金影响吗?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Of course, I wish I could, but I don't know what the price would be on the bunker. So I can't. But we - I mean we see big spread, so we see things changing. But what it really will be - I mean that will be the day when we actually buy it. As this is such a big change we don't want to speculate in it and count, but we are prepared for it and we are also both sort of operationally prepared for it, but we're also prepared for it that will take up some of our working capital capacity.

当然,我希望我能,但我不知道沙坑的价格是多少。 所以我不能。 但是我们 - 我的意思是我们看到了很大的传播,所以我们看到事情在发 但它到底会是什么 - 我的意思是那将是我们实际购买它的那一天。 由于这是一个如此巨大的变化,我们不想在其中进行推测和计算,但我们已经为此做好了准备,而且我们也为它做了一些操作准备,但我们也准备好了它会占用一些 我们的营运资金能力。

David Kerstens

Okay. Maybe a final question if I may, on trade land. So I think you reported during the quarter increasing acceptance among your peers and you now covering well over 50% of global capacity. When do you see the benefits of this initiative coming to or is mainly benefits for your customers or will it also eventually lead to higher volumes, similar to what you pointed out in your introduction earlier in the call?

好的。 在贸易土地上,如果可以,也许是最后一个问题。 所以我认为你在本季度报告的同行越来越多,你现在已经覆盖了全球50%以上的产能。 您何时看到此计划带来的好处或主要是为您的客户带来的好处,或者它最终会导致更高的销售量,类似于您在电话会议前面的介绍中指出的内容?

Soren Skou

Yes, we are building, if you will - the platform and the network, the ecosystem on the trade lanes platform. May be it was a very important step to get commitments from some of the largest carriers in the world to join the platform because without the data from the carriers, the platform will not be interesting for the customer.
So now towards the rest of this year we'll do the work to actually get these carriers on board. We will have around 60% of global capacity on the network then on the platform. We are at the same time building the platform with the land side participants container terminals, container trucker rail - rail roads and - and so on, so that we get as much of a network coming as many participants as possible. The concept for trade lanes is that the shippers will be the customers of trade lanes.
So the revenue model will be that shippers will be paying - will be paying for access to all the data on the shipments and we have today around 8 customers, all of them big name companies that of course our pilot customers are interested in the new platform because they think it can help to manage their supply chain, improve visibility make it more efficient and so on. So that's where we are. We are building towards trade lanes - trade lanes becoming a business in it's own right as if you will, and Internet of trade.

是的,我们正在构建,如果您愿意 - 平台和网络,贸易通道平台上的生态系统。可能是获得世界上一些最大的运营商加入该平台的承诺非常重要的一步,因为如果没有来自运营商的数据,该平台将不会对客户感兴趣。

所以现在到今年剩下的时间里,我们将继续努力让这些运营商参与其中。我们将在网络上拥有全球大约60%的全球容量,然后在平台上。我们同时与陆地参与者集装箱码头,集装箱卡车司机铁路和 - 等建立平台,以便尽可能多地吸引尽可能多的参与者。贸易航线的概念是托运人将成为贸易航线的客户。

因此,收入模式将是托运人将支付 - 将支付访问货物上的所有数据,我们今天有大约8个客户,所有这些大公司当然我们的试点客户对新平台感兴趣因为他们认为它可以帮助管理他们的供应链,提高可见性使其更有效等等。这就是我们所处的位置。我们正在建立贸易通道 - 贸易通道就像你自己一样成为一个企业,以及贸易互联网。

David Kerstens

Great, thank you very much.

太好了,非常感谢你。

会议主持员

Next question is from Finn Bjarke Petersen from Danske Bank. Please go ahead, your line is open.

下一个问题来自Danske Bank的Finn Bjarke Petersen。 请继续,你的线路是开放的。

Finn Bjarke Petersen

Yes, good morning and congratulation with the strong results for the quarter. I just want to touch a little bit on guidance. You are guiding - more or less a flat result, first half, second half. Normally, we will see a stronger second half. Could you elaborate a little bit of how you see the high season develop and the reason for the flat guidance?

是的,早上好,祝贺本季度的强劲业绩。 我只想稍微谈谈指导。 你是指导 - 或多或少是一个平坦的结果,上半场,下半场。 通常情况下,我们会看到下半场更强势。 你能详细说明一下你如何看待旺季的发展以及平坦指导的原因吗?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Well, thank you for the congratulations. As to our guidance, well, we have maintained the guidance on around 5 and if I look at the second half of '18, we had very strong improvements in the freight rates and the financials compared to the first half of the year like you said. And therefore, we do have pretty tough comps to bit, and I would say the public freight rates indexes have not really shown that strength in July versus last year and also last year, we were really positively affected by this emergency bunker surcharge really coming into effect in the second half.
So I mean there is a possibility that the freight rates in the second half of '19 will be lower than they were second half of '18 right? And then we have the macroeconomic environment. Well, it didn't improve in Q2 and we continue to see significant uncertainties even coming into the peak season and then we have, of course IMO 2020 which will also - well is a question mark I would say.
But, I would say in general consumer confidence remains high, but well business confidence has continued to weaken and especially in the manufacturing sector is on. Bunker price fluctuations as well - Do you have seen it, so I would say the bunker price is down, but the fluctuations remain high and it's very difficult for us to predict. So with that, and also the IMO, including the fact that would have sort of on us we still stick to our guidance for the full year.

好的,谢谢你的祝贺。至于我们的指导,好吧,我们保持了大约5的指导,如果我看一下'18的下半年,我们的运费和财务状况与上半年相比有很大的改善,就像你说的那样。因此,我们确实有一些非常强硬的补偿,我会说公共运费指数并没有真正显示7月与去年以及去年相比的实力,我们真正受到这种紧急燃油附加费的影响。效果在下半场。

所以我的意思是,19世纪下半叶的运费有可能低于18年下半年的运费吗?然后我们就有了宏观经济环境。好吧,它在第二季度没有改善,我们继续看到即使进入旺季也存在很大的不确定性,然后我们当然也有IMO 2020,这也是我想说的问题。

但是,我会说总的来说消费者信心仍然很高,但商业信心仍然持续走弱,特别是制造业的信心正在上升。燃油价格波动也是如此 - 您是否已经看到它,所以我会说燃油价格下跌,但波动仍然很高,我们很难预测。因此,以及国际海事组织,包括对我们有所帮助的事实,我们仍然坚持全年的指导。

Finn Bjarke Petersen

And then just one question regarding the Q2. I understand there is a currency effect, could you give us just tell what's that's in US dollar? And the second to the Q2 result. If you would say you started result that reflecting that All-Stars was aligned in your favor in the quarter. How would you describe the second quarter performance?

然后只有一个关于Q2的问题。 我知道有货币效应,你能不能告诉我们什么是美元? 而第二个到第二季度的结果。 如果你说你开始的结果反映了全明星在本季度对你有利。 您如何描述第二季度的表现?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

First on your FX question, the effect - what the FX effect on the U.S. dollar, mainly on EBITDA was really insignificant. So that didn't have a big effect on us. And I would say for the second quarter, I mean we improved what we could control and we improve that in a good way. So I don't think we can say that, that is all just us in the right direction.

首先在您的外汇问题上,影响 - 外汇对美元的影响,主要是EBITDA的影响实在是微不足道。 所以这对我们没有太大影响。 我会说第二季度,我的意思是我们改进了我们可以控制的东西,并且我们以一种好的方式改进了它。 所以我认为我们不能说,这就是我们正朝着正确的方向前进。

Soren Skou

I mean, maybe I can just add here Finn, that we have all – all throughout this year, we have been planning for a low growth type of senari, we have all all throughout this year, we have been planning for a low growth type of scenario. We said early in the year we expected market to grow 1% to 3%.
And we said we are not going to grow our capacity, our ambition is to grow more or less in line with the market for the year. And if you look at what happened in the second quarter, most of the improvement in my view is factors we have controlled our self. Freight rates went up by 1.5% that's nice, but unit costs came down by 3.5% and we got our commercial performance back in line with market growth. So, we have been very focused on profitability and what we can do to improve that ourselves.

我的意思是,也许我可以在这里添加Finn,我们拥有所有 - 在今年全年,我们一直在计划低增长类型的senari,我们在今年全部都有,我们一直在计划低增长类型 场景。 我们在年初表示,我们预计市场将增长1%至3%。

我们说我们不会增加我们的产能,我们的目标是或多或少地与今年的市场保持一致。 如果你看一下第二季度发生的事情,我认为大部分改进都是我们控制自己的因素。 运费上涨了1.5%这很不错,但单位成本下降了3.5%,我们的商业表现与市场增长一致。 因此,我们一直非常关注盈利能力以及我们可以做些什么来改善自己。

Finn Bjarke Petersen

And then, just one thing on the backhaul, the improvement in backhaul is of course important for the - for unit cost reduction. As well as, you first give you a more and more units and less cost to repositioning. How do you see your backhaul develop in the second quarter of the year or second half of the year?

然后,回程中只有一件事,回程的改进当然对于单位成本降低很重要。 同样,您首先会为您提供越来越多的单位,并且重新定位的成本更低。 您如何看待您的回程在今年第二季度或下半年发展?

Soren Skou

We expect to see similar development I would say, I mean we - the network and the stability and reliability of the network is a big factor here. As we become more reliable, we also have more opportunity to load in the backhaul traits. If we are behind schedule, if you will, we have - we generally, will try to get out of port as quickly as possible to get back to that - to the head haul trade. So as the operator - the network is operating at very high reliability.
Now we've - we have regained our spot, kind of the top of the industry league when it comes to reliability and we will continue to do what we can to drive further reliability in the coming quarters.

我们希望看到类似的发展,我的意思是我们 - 网络和网络的稳定性和可靠性是一个重要因素。 随着我们变得更可靠,我们也有更多机会加载回程特性。 如果我们落后于时间表,如果你愿意的话,我们通常会尽快离开港口,以便重新回到那个港口。 因此,作为运营商 - 网络以非常高的可靠性运行。

现在我们已经 - 我们已经重新获得了我们的位置,在可靠性方面已经成为行业联盟中的佼佼者,我们将继续尽我们所能来推动未来几个季度的可靠性。

Finn Bjarke Petersen

Okay, thank you very much.

好的,非常感谢。

会议主持员

Next question is from Robert Joynson from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead, your line is open.

接下来的问题来自Exane BNP Paribas的Robert Joynson。 请继续,你的线路是开放的。

罗伯特·乔伊森

Good morning, everybody. The first question from me, on the CapEx outlook, you've confirmed once again today there won't be any large vessel orders until 2020 at the earliest, but of course, 2020 is now at least four months away and based on your previous comments regarding capital discipline, it would appear relatively unlikely, I would say a large vessel order will be placed during 2020 specifically, but to help us think about the timing of the next large vessel order. Could you maybe just provide some color on what would need to happen from us to decide if it does need to make a large new vessel order?

大家早上好。 关于资本支出前景,我提出的第一个问题,你今天再次证实,最早到2020年将不会有任何大型船舶订单,但当然,2020年现在距离至少还有四个月,并且基于你之前的 关于资本纪律的评论,似乎相对不太可能,我想说一个大型船舶订单将在2020年专门放置,但是为了帮助我们考虑下一个大型船舶订单的时间安排。 您是否可以只提供一些颜色来确定我们需要做些什么以确定是否需要制作大型新船订单?

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Yes, I will agree with your comment that even if we give the guidance after Q3 for next year, because we are doing the business plan for that period. It appears relatively unlikely that we will invest in larger vessels and big terminals concessions and I mean that - how that will turn out in the years to come after that, will of course have to do with how the development is of global trading containers, but we will continue our focus on profitability.

是的,我同意你的意见,即使我们在明年第三季度之后提供指导,因为我们正在执行该期间的业务计划。 我们似乎不太可能投资于大型船舶和大型码头特许经营权,我的意思是 - 在此后的几年中将如何发展,当然将与发展的全球贸易集装箱如何有关,但 我们将继续关注盈利能力。

罗伯特·乔伊森

Okay. And second question which is, I guess is slightly related to that one. Just in terms of the unit cost improvement, which was good to see today, it was obviously driven by improved volume certainly versus Q1. You've talked about maintaining the deployed capacity to around 4 million TEUs, just to help us think about operational gearing, could you just maybe provide some color on how much additional volume could be handled while keeping the capacity at around 4 million TEUs well also maintaining that the high level of reliability that you're now seeing?

好的。 第二个问题,我猜这与那个问题有点关系。 就单位成本改善而言,这在今天看来很好,显然是由于第一季度的数量有所改善。 您已经谈到将部署的容量维持在大约400万标准箱,只是为了帮助我们考虑运营传动,您是否可以提供一些颜色,说明可以处理多少额外的容量,同时保持容量大约为400万标准箱 保持您现在看到的高可靠性?

Soren Skou

Robert, it's really, really hard because, this is really at the core of how you design the networks and which trades that you focus on, obviously the more long haul trades, we have the less volumes we can load on 4 billion TEU of capacity and vice versa and we believe we have opportunity for continuing to grow in line with the market for a while with the 4 billion TEU capacity.
That doesn't mean that we will grow exactly in line with the market in every single trade that could very well be that there are traits where we will see here we don't have a competitive position or we don't think we can be profitable. So why worry about our market share here and then it's focus in all the other trade. So it's very, very hard to ask to answer the question in a meaningful way. But we are committed to being very disciplined in terms of capacity deployment.

罗伯特,这真的非常难,因为,这真的是你设计网络的核心以及你关注的交易,显然是长途交易越多,我们就可以在40亿TEU的容量上加载更少的交易量 反之亦然,我们相信我们有机会继续与市场保持一段时间的增长,拥有40亿TEU的产能。

这并不意味着我们将在每一笔交易中与市场完全一致,这很可能是我们将在这里看到的特征我们没有竞争地位,或者我们认为我们不能 有利可图。 那么为什么要担心我们的市场份额呢?然后它关注所有其他交易。 所以要求以有意义的方式回答这个问题是非常非常困难的。 但我们致力于在容量部署方面保持纪律。

罗伯特·乔伊森

Maybe just to focus on a slightly and perspective, I mean if we look, let's say just in 2020. Would it be deployed capacity of 4 million TEUs, be a reasonable assumption for us to make for 2020?

也许仅仅关注一个微观和透视,我的意思是,如果我们看一下,让我们说只是在2020年。是否会部署400万标准箱的容量,这是我们为2020年做出的合理假设?

Soren Skou

Yes.

是。

罗伯特·乔伊森

Okay. And then a final question, just on IT expenses and head count actually. I think there was an interesting article in Boston last month, which included comments from Maersk Chief Technology Officer. I think he was saying that most currently has 3000 and IT employees. But in 18 months, he expects that number could be 4,500 to 5,000. Just two questions on that. First of all, do those numbers sound reasonable to yourselves? And second question is when Maersk is hiring in IT, at the moment, to what extent of the head count additions comprised of contracts is rather than permanent employees? Thank you.

好的。 然后是最后一个问题,实际上只是关于IT费用和人数。 我认为上个月波士顿有一篇有趣的文章,其中包括马士基首席技术官的评论。 我认为他说大多数目前有3000名和IT员工。 但在18个月内,他预计这个数字可能会达到4,500到5,000。 只有两个问题。 首先,这些数字对你们来说听起来合理吗? 第二个问题是,当马士基在IT部门招聘的时候,合同中包含的人数增加的程度是多少,而不是长期雇员? 谢谢。

Carolina Dybeck Happe

Yes. And that actually your lost, I would say you lost centers is sort of the answer to that question. We have in total around 6000 people working in IT, but half of them are contracted and what Adam talks about is a shift of that and having more of that sort of working directly for us and in the more strategic areas, and the important areas, and then keep a healthy balance of contractors for the rest.

是。 而实际上你输了,我会说你失去了中心就是这个问题的答案。 我们总共有大约6000名IT人员在工作,但其中有一半是签约的,而亚当谈到的是这种转变,更多的是直接为我们以及更具战略意义的领域和重要领域工作, 然后保持其余承包商的健康平衡。

罗伯特·乔伊森

Okay, thank you.

好的谢谢你。

会议主持员

And our final question comes from the line of Marcus Bellander from Nordea. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

我们的最后一个问题来自Nordea的Marcus Bellander。 请继续,你的线路现已开放。

马库斯·贝兰德

Thank you. First question is regarding other income in Maersk Ocean. It was quite a bit lower in Q2 than in Q1 and I know it can be volatile, but I think this is one of the biggest swings with ever seen, is there anything structural there or is it just natural quarterly variations?

谢谢。 第一个问题是关于马士基海洋的其他收入。 第二季度比第一季度要低得多,我知道它可能会波动,但我认为这是有史以来最大的波动之一,那里有什么结构还是仅仅是自然的季度变化?

Soren Skou

There is nothing structural. It's this volatility in and detention income, it's really hard to predict.

没有结构。 正是这种波动性和滞留收入,很难预测。

马库斯·贝兰德

Okay, thank you. And the second question concerns your growth in backhaul rates in the last couple of few quarters you've talked about having essentially shed backhaul volumes, because you've done, the cost of repositioning containers too high, but now you're growing backhaul volumes quite a bit more than headhaul volumes. Is that a new strategic decision so to speak, or is it just that market growth has been on the backhaul for some reason?

好的谢谢你。 第二个问题涉及你在过去几个季度中提到的回程费率的增长,因为你已经完成了重新定位容器的成本过高,但是现在你正在增长回程卷 比头脑卷多得多。 这可以说是一个新的战略决策,还是因为某些原因市场增长一直在回程?

Soren Skou

No, it is - it's what I said before, when our network that when our network becomes more reliable and stable. We have more opportunity for loading backhaul volumes and obviously, if we can do that. We achieve two things, we get rid of persistent costs and we do get some freight income as well. So we like to do that but - but if they - if the network is not stable we are often not able to do it. So it's a reflection more of how our network operates that we able to take these opportunities and it's reflection of market growth in backhaul markets if you will.

不,它就是 - 这就是我之前所说的,当我们的网络变得更加可靠和稳定时。 我们有更多机会加载回程卷,显然,如果我们能做到这一点。 我们实现了两件事,我们摆脱了持续的成本,我们也获得了一些运费收入。 所以我们喜欢这样做但是 - 如果他们 - 如果网络不稳定,我们往往无法做到。 因此,它更多地反映了我们的网络如何运作,我们能够抓住这些机会,并反映出回程市场中的市场增长,如果你愿意的话。

马库斯·贝兰德

Okay, thank you.

好的谢谢你。

会议主持员

That was our final question. So I'll hand the call back to the speakers for any closing comments. Please go ahead.

这是我们的最后一个问题。 因此,我会将电话回复给发言人,以便收到任何结束意见。 请继续。

Soren Skou

Thank you. Yes and I'll just end by saying that in the second quarter, we continued to improve profitability. We now had - have had four quarters where we've been able to improve profitability and EBITDA is up, basically 25% for the first half of the year which we are pleased with. We still need to improve further margins. As we already discussed on the call, we had 3.1% return on invested capital. That's a big step-up from last year, but less than halfway to where we want to go.
So there is plenty of work to do. We are happy with our cash performance, we are happy with the delevering of the company. The fact that we are - we have started to share proceeds from the - the Energy separation with the - with the demerger of Maersk Drilling and the start of our share buyback program and of course, that's driven by better margins and driven by high cash conversion and so on.
In Ocean, of course, we were able to improve unit cost by 3.5%, which is good and in line with our ambition of getting unit costs down 1% to 2% every year. And then finally, also positive for this quarter was the synergy target being of $1 billion being REIT. So, with that, I'll say thank you for listening and have a nice day.

谢谢。是的,我最后会说,在第二季度,我们继续提高盈利能力。我们现在已经有四个季度,我们已经能够提高盈利能力,EBITDA上涨,我们很满意,今年上半年基本上是25%。我们仍需要进一步提高利润率。正如我们已经在电话会议上讨论的那样,我们的投资回报率为3.1%。这是去年的一大进步,但不到我们想去的地方的一半。

所以有很多工作要做。我们对现金表现感到满意,我们对公司的去除表示满意。事实上我们 - 我们已经开始分享收益 - 能源分离与马士基钻井公司的分拆以及我们的股票回购计划的开始,当然,这是由更高的利润率和高现金转换推动的等等。

当然,在Ocean,我们能够将单位成本提高3.5%,这很好,符合我们每年将单位成本降低1%至2%的雄心。最后,本季度的积极因素是10亿美元的协同效应目标是REIT。所以,有了这个,我会说谢谢你的倾听,祝你有个美好的一天。

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