Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.(AVAL) 首席执行官 Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez 在 2019年 第二季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

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Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (NYSE:AVAL) Q2 2019 Earnings Conference Call August 21, 2019 10:00 AM ET

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.(纽约证券交易所代码:[AVAL])2019年第二季度收益电话会议2019年8月21日美国东部时间上午10:00

公司参与者

Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutiérrez - Chief Executive Officer
Diego Fernando Solano Saravia - Chief Financial Officer

  • Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez - 首席执行官
  • Diego Fernando Solano Saravia - 首席财务官

电话会议参与者

Andres Soto - Santander
Jason Mollin - Scotiabank
Jörg Friedemann - Citibank
Yuri Fernandes - JPMorgan
Sebastián Gallego - CrediCorp Capital
Alonso Aramburu - BTG
Nicolas Riva - Bank of America.
Carlos Rodríguez - Ultraserfinco
Brian Flores - Citi

  • 安德烈斯索托 - 桑坦德
  • 杰森莫林 - 丰业银行
  • JörgFriedemann - 花旗银行
  • 尤里费尔南德斯 - 摩根大通
  • SebastiánGallego - CrediCorp Capital
  • Alonso Aramburu - BTG
  • Nicolas Riva - 美国银行。
  • CarlosRodríguez - Ultraserfinco
  • 布莱恩弗洛雷斯 - 花旗

会议主持员

Welcome to Grupo Aval's Second Quarter 2019 Consolidated Results Conference Call. My name is Hilda, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval, is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States registered with the Colombia's National Registry of Shares and Issuers, Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and The United States' Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation.
All of our banking subsidiaries, Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular and Banco AV Villas, Porvenir and Corficolombiana, are subject to inspection and supervision as financial institutions by the Superintendency of Finance. Grupo Aval is now also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as a result of Law 1870 of 2017, also known as the Law of Financial Conglomerates, which came in effect on February 6, 2019.
Grupo Aval, as the holding company of its financial conglomerate, is responsible for the compliance with capital adequacy requirements, corporate governance standards, risk management and internal control and criteria for identifying, managing and revealing conflicts of interest applicable to its financial conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB.
Details of the calculations of non-GAAP measures, such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. Grupo Aval has adopted IFRS 16 retrospectively from January 1, 2019, but has not restated comparatives for the 2018 reporting period, as permitted under the specific transitional provisions in the standard. The reclassifications and adjustments arising from the new leasing rules are therefore recognized in the opening condensed consolidated statement of financial position on January 1, 2019. Consequently, quarterly results for 2019 are not fully comparable to previous periods.
IFRS 16 introduced a single on-balance sheet accounting model for lessees. As a result, Grupo Aval as a lessee has recognized right-of-use assets representing its rights to use the underlying assets and lease liabilities representing its obligation to make lease payments.
Lessor accounting remains similar to previous accounting policies. Assets and liabilities arising from a lease are initially measured on a present value basis. The lease payments are discounted using the interest rate implicit in the lease, in that rate can be determined or the group's incremental borrowing rate.
This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as, may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential or continue or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC.

欢迎来到Grupo Aval 2019年第二季度综合业绩电话会议。我的名字是希尔达,我将成为今天电话的运营商。 Grupo Aval Acciones Y Valores SA,Grupo Aval,是哥伦比亚和美国证券发行人,在哥伦比亚国家股票和发行人登记处注册,Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores和美国证券交易委员会,SEC 。因此,它必须遵守哥伦比亚的证券监管和适用的美国证券监管。

我们所有的银行子公司BancodeBogotá,Banco de Occidente,Banco Popular和Banco AV Villas,Porvenir和Corficolombiana都受到财务监督局的金融机构的检查和监督。 Grupo Aval现在还受到2017年1870年法律(也称为金融集团法)的监督和监督,该法律于2019年2月6日生效。

Grupo Aval作为其金融集团的控股公司,负责遵守资本充足要求,公司治理标准,风险管理和内部控制以及识别,管理和揭示适用于其金融集团的利益冲突的标准。本文件中包含的合并财务信息是根据IASB目前发布的IFRS呈现的。

本报告要求解释非GAAP措施(如ROAA和ROAE等)的计算详情。 Grupo Aval自2019年1月1日起追溯采用IFRS 16,但未按标准中的特定过渡条款允许的2018年报告期重新比较。因此,新租赁规则产生的重新分类和调整于2019年1月1日在开幕简明综合财务状况表中确认。因此,2019年的季度业绩与前期并不完全可比。

IFRS 16为承租人引入了单一的资产负债表内会计模型。因此,作为承租人的Grupo Aval已经确认使用权利资产,该资产代表其使用相关资产和租赁负债的权利,并代表其履行租赁付款的义务。

出租人会计仍与以前的会计政策相似。租赁产生的资产和负债初始按现值计量。租赁付款使用租赁中隐含的利率贴现,可以确定该利率或集团的增量借款利率。

本报告包含前瞻性陈述。在某些情况下,您可以通过诸如,可能,将来,应该,预期,计划,预期,相信,估计,预测,潜在或继续或这些和其他可比单词的否定等词语来识别这些前瞻性陈述。由于一般情况,经济和商业条件的变化,利息和货币汇率的变化以及我们向Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores提交的文件中不时描述的其他风险,实际结果和事件可能与此处预期的产生重大差异。 SEC。

Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements and do not intend to provide any update for such material development prior to our next earnings report.
The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable, in this document we refer to billions as thousands of millions.
At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session.
I will now turn the call over to Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutiérrez, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Sarmiento Gutiérrez, you may begin.

本文档的收件人负责评估和使用此处提供的信息。 本演示文稿中描述的事项以及我们对它们的了解可能会随着时间的推移而发生广泛而重大的变化,但我们明确表示不承担审查,更新或更正本报告中提供的信息的任何义务,包括任何前瞻性陈述,并且不打算提供任何 在下一份收益报告之前更新此类材料开发。

本文档的内容和本文包括的附图旨在提供所讨论主题的概述而不是全面的描述。 如果适用,在本文档中,我们称数十亿为数十亿。

此时,所有参与者都处于只听模式。 稍后,我们将进行问答环节。

我现在将把这个电话转给首席执行官Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez先生。 SarmientoGutiérrez先生,您可以开始。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

Thank you, Hilda. Good morning and thank you for joining us in our second quarter 2019 conference call. Once again, it's my pleasure to share with you our strong financial results for the quarter that ended on June 30.
As in previous calls I will cover the following subjects; an overview of our macro scenario, highlights of our results and a brief update regarding the legal processes of Ruta del Sol.
Colombia's economy, where 70% of our business resides, grew at 3% during the first half of 2019. Seasonally adjusted GDP growth during the first quarter was revised from 2.3% to 2.7% or 3.1% unadjusted. And seasonally adjusted growth during the second quarter came in at 3.4% or 3% unadjusted.
Notably, during the second quarter, several sectors grew faster than the average economic growth, including retail, financial services, communications and professional services. Lagging sectors included construction, industry and oil and mining.
These sectors are traditionally the main generators of jobs. Consequently, low growth in these sectors is in part responsible for the deterioration of our unemployment rate, which is currently averaging 10.1%. As I've mentioned before, we believe that two other significant factors contributing to the current unemployment level are an inflow of Venezuela migrants with legal work permits and the consistent minimum wage increases in excess of inflation.
Our current view on growth, still somewhat more conservative than the government, we believe that GDP will grow between 3% and 3.25% for the year. We further believe that unemployment will only start to improve once the construction and the industry sectors pick up momentum.
Commercial loan demand, uses a proxy to detect acceleration in the growth of these sectors, does not yet point in that direction. The latest inflation number of 3.79% for the 12 months ending in July represented the largest increment in monthly data of 12-month inflation since December 2017. This number also comes closer to the 4% cap of the Central Bank's acceptable range.
However, the two drivers that fuel such pick up lead us to believe that inflation will correct downward and will then close to 3.5% for 2019. The first driver that accelerated inflation was food prices, mainly due to a short-lived El Niño weather phenomenon.
Secondly, inflation for July 2018 was atypically low and thus the base for comparison magnifies the effect of July's number on the overall measurement. Data also suggests that there is still a moderate pass-through of the recent devaluation of the currency associated with more costly inputs when converted to Colombian pesos.
Consequently, the Central Bank is sort of on a tough spot. On the one hand, it needs to make sure that inflation expectations remain controlled and that might lead it in the direction of tightening monitor policy, especially if it feels that the exchange rate is affecting internal prices in a material way.
But on the other hand, it also knows that the economy's recovery is still sluggish and as such, an early tightening cycle could be harmful. As of now, we believe that the Central Bank will continue with a stable interest rate throughout the remainder of 2019.

谢谢,希尔达。早上好,感谢您参加2019年第二季度电话会议。再次,我很高兴与您分享我们在6月30日结束的季度的强劲财务业绩。

和以前的电话一样,我将介绍以下主题;概述我们的宏观情景,我们的结果重点以及有关Ruta del Sol法律程序的简要更新。

2019年上半年,我们70%的业务所在的哥伦比亚经济增长率为3%。第一季度经季节性调整的GDP增长率从2.3%修正为2.7%或3.1%未经调整。第二季度经季节性调整后的增长率为3.4%或3%未经调整。

值得注意的是,在第二季度,几个行业的增长速度超过了平均经济增长,包括零售,金融服务,通信和专业服务。滞后行业包括建筑业,工业,石油和采矿业。

这些部门传统上是工作的主要来源。因此,这些行业的低增长是造成失业率恶化的部分原因,目前失业率平均为10.1%。正如我之前提到的,我们认为导致目前失业水平的另外两个重要因素是委内瑞拉移民拥有合法工作许可证以及一致的最低工资增长超过通货膨胀。

我们目前对增长的看法,仍然比政府更为保守,我们认为全年GDP将增长3%至3.25%。我们进一步认为,一旦建筑业和工业部门恢复增长势头,失业率才会开始改善。

商业贷款需求,使用代理来检测这些部门增长的加速度,还没有指向那个方向。截至7月份的12个月中,最新的通胀数字为3.79%,是自2017年12月以来12个月通胀月度数据的最大增幅。此数字也接近中央银行可接受范围的4%上限。

然而,推动这种上涨的两个驱动因素使我们相信通货膨胀将向下调整,然后在2019年接近3.5%。加速通货膨胀的第一个因素是食品价格上涨,这主要是由于厄尔尼诺现象短暂的天气现象。

其次,2018年7月的通货膨胀率非常低,因此比较基数放大了7月份数量对整体计量的影响。数据还表明,在转换为哥伦比亚比索时,与最昂贵的投入相关的近期货币贬值仍然存在适度的传递。

因此,中央银行有点困难。一方面,它需要确保通胀预期仍然受到控制,并可能导致其收紧监管政策,特别是如果它认为汇率正在大幅影响内部价格。

但另一方面,它也知道经济的复苏仍然缓慢,因此,早期的紧缩周期可能是有害的。截至目前,我们认为央行将在2019年剩余时间内继续保持稳定的利率。

Even if inflation stays at current levels, it is difficult to envision more than 1.5 basis point hike in the remainder of the year. Current account deficit is still an issue. Internal demand growth continues to boost the importation of goods, while devaluation of the peso has not been a clear promoter of more and diverse exports.
Latest figures show that, while inputs are growing close to 10% year-on-year, exports are flat. Government is pushing for a better use of the signed free-trade agreement and for strengthening of our tourism. But the reality is, that our trade partners are not doing great that international markets are not strong and that tourism, despite growing, is far from contributing significantly to shrinking the current account gap.
Finally, on the fiscal front, we still believe that this year's deficit will be in line with the fiscal rule requirement of 2.7%. Consequently, we do not see probable the government's own estimation of a 2.4% deficit for 2019. The reason for our resurge in our debt; first, GDP growth will probably fall short of the government's estimation of close to 3.5% included in the medium term fiscal plan. And secondly, the peso is weaker than anticipated, which has resulted in an increasing debt servicing pesos and the increasing income from oil revenues has not offset this debt service increase.
As we have said before, a decoupling has occurred between FX and the price of oil. The exchange rate is more associated to a global deceleration and applies to quality reaction. If this situation continues, the government might be forced to cut spending even more or even to privatize a portion of its assets, an idea that has started to make some public waves.
The exchange rate is up to Ps. 3,400 per dollar and it seems that this is the new norm. Several pressures are in play. The strongest driver in our view continues to be a widening trade deficit. Additionally, as of August, dollar flows into fixed income local currency portfolios had decreased by 25% as compared to 2018 from $1.2 billion to $900 million. These pressures have been somewhat mitigated by an increase in remittances, which have grown by approximately $900 million in the last year and by a 21% increase as of July in structural foreign direct investments.
Central America's growth has slightly decelerated. Although, we still believe that the region's economy will grow upwards of 3% during 2019, the reality is that this growth is closely linked to the performance of the U.S. GDP. And as the U.S. economy slows down, so does Central America's. However, the macroeconomic fundamentals and the strength of our business in Central America continue to prove our strategy of sustainable results based on diversification.
To highlight a few of this quarter's numbers, our attributable net income for the quarter was Ps. 813 billion or Ps. 36.5 per share, an increase of 19.3% versus 2018 second quarter result of Ps. 681.5 billion or Ps. 30.6 per share. And our return on average equity for the quarter rose to 18.3%. Our results were mainly driven by loan portfolio growth just shy of our 8% estimation for the year, but very profitable in nature with faster growth in our retail portfolio than in our commercial portfolio.

即使通胀维持在当前水平,也难以设想在今年剩余时间内加息超过1.5个基点。经常账户赤字仍是一个问题。内部需求增长继续推动商品进口,而比索的贬值并未成为更多和更多样化出口的明确推动者。

最新数据显示,虽然投入同比增长接近10%,但出口持平。政府正在推动更好地利用已签署的自由贸易协定和加强我们的旅游业。但现实情况是,我们的贸易伙伴并没有做得很好,国际市场不强,旅游业虽然在增长,但远远没有为缩小经常账户差距做出重大贡献。

最后,在财政方面,我们仍然认为今年的赤字将符合2.7%的财政规则要求。因此,我们看不出政府自己估计2019年赤字为2.4%的原因。我们债务重新抬头的原因;首先,GDP增长可能会低于政府对中期财政计划中接近3.5%的估计。其次,比索弱于预期,这导致债务偿还比例增加,而石油收入增加的收入并未抵消这种偿债增长。

正如我们之前所说,外汇与石油价格之间出现了脱钩。汇率更多地与全球减速相关,并适用于质量反应。如果这种情况继续下去,政府可能会被迫削减开支甚至将其部分资产私有化,这一想法已经开始引发一些公共浪潮。

汇率高达Ps。每美元3,400,这似乎是新常态。有几种压力在起作用。我们认为最强劲的推动因素仍然是贸易逆差扩大。此外,截至8月份,流入固定收益本地货币组合的美元流入量与2018年相比减少了25%,从12亿美元减少到9亿美元。汇款增加有所缓解了这些压力,去年汇款增加了约9亿美元,截至7月份结构性外国直接投资增加了21%。

中美洲的增长略有减速。尽管如此,我们仍然认为该地区的经济在2019年将增长3%,现实情况是这一增长与美国GDP的表现密切相关。随着美国经济放缓,中美洲也是如此。然而,宏观经济基本面和我们在中美洲的业务实力继续证明我们的战略是基于多元化的可持续结果。

为突出本季度的一些数据,本季度我们的归属净收入为Ps。 813亿或Ps。每股36.5,比Ps的2018年第二季度业绩增长19.3%。 6,815亿或Ps。每股30.6。我们本季度的平均股本回报率上升至18.3%。我们的业绩主要受到贷款组合增长的推动,仅略低于我们今年8%的预测,但我们的零售组合增长速度快于我们的商业投资组合,因此非常有利可图。

Net interest margin of approximately 6% driven by a disciplined loan pricing strategy, controlled cost of funds and better yields from our fixed income portfolios. Overall, cost of risk approaching 2%, resulting from an improvement in our consumer portfolio's cost of risks, partially offset by a deterioration of our commercial portfolio's cost of risk. Cost of risk will increase in the remainder of the year, as our bank fully provisioned our remaining exposure in Ruta del Sol.
Strong net fee income growing significantly faster than our loan portfolio due to solid banking and pension fund fees. Sustained contribution from our non-financial sector during the quarter, which is -- you are all aware mainly comes from our operation Corficolombiana. Continued focus on efficiency resulting in controlled operating expenses in general and specifically in slow growth of personnel expenses even below the minimum wage increase. Strong balance sheet as reflected by our deposit-to-loan, liquidity, intangible equity ratios. Diego will refer to each of these points in a few minutes.
On the digitalization front, we continue to work at digitalizing products and processes in order to become more productive, but also to access segments of the population that were unbankable to us in the past. We expect to launch DALE, our Fintech in the next couple of months. DALE is an ecosystem that will allow clients and non-clients to conduct P2P, P2C and C2P money transfers at zero cost in one click. We share the government's goal to decrease the use of cash and we also want to increase banking penetration. We will share with you more details of DALE in our next call.
Regarding ongoing legal matters related to Ruta del Sol, in the last few weeks two proceedings have advanced. On the one hand, the arbitration tribunal ruled on August 6th and then confirmed it's really on August 16th after declining to respond multiple requests for clarifications from all the parties involved.
First and as expected, the Ruta del Sol contract was declared null. Importantly, this part of the ruling allow the Tribunal to base its calculation of the liquidation value of the contract on Law 1882 of 2018 and had no other implication as the project was reversed to the government almost two years ago.
Secondly, the Tribunal ruled that on top of the payments that have been made to employees, suppliers and banks since the contract ended in February 2017, which add up to approximately Ps. 1.5 trillion, the government should pay an additional Ps. 211 billion to CRDS' creditors among which the banking system is owed approximately Ps. 1.2 trillion. We have been studying very closely and in painful detail the text of the 700-page ruling have several issues as to how the judges apply the law to which the liquidation value number.
We don't know what other parts affected by these ruling are going to do in terms looking for legal recourses, but we will consider all the avenues supported by the law. Since the final resolution might take some time, we foresee that our banks will have to provision the current exposure to CRDS before this year ends.

由于严格的贷款定价策略,受控的资金成本以及来自固定收益投资组合的更高收益率,净息差约为6%。总体而言,由于我们的消费者投资组合的风险成本有所改善,风险成本接近2%,部分被我们的商业投资组合的风险成本恶化所抵消。风险成本将在今年剩余时间内增加,因为我们的银行完全提供了我们在Ruta del Sol的剩余风险敞口。

由于固定的银行和养老基金费用,强劲的净手续费收入增长明显快于我们的贷款组合。本季度我们的非金融部门持续贡献,这是 - 你们都知道主要来自我们的Corficolombiana行动。继续关注效率,导致总体上控制的运营费用,特别是人员费用增长缓慢,甚至低于最低工资增长。我们的存款对贷款,流动性,无形资产比率反映出强劲的资产负债表。迭戈将在几分钟内参考这些要点。

在数字化方面,我们继续致力于产品和流程的数字化,以提高工作效率,同时也能够访问过去无法为我们提供服务的人群。我们预计在未来几个月推出DALE,我们的金融科技。 DALE是一个生态系统,允许客户和非客户只需点击一下即可以零成本进行P2P,P2C和C2P资金转账。我们赞同政府减少现金使用的目标,我们也希望提高银行业务渗透率。我们将在下次电话会议中与您分享DALE的更多详情。

关于与Ruta del Sol有关的持续法律事务,在过去几周内已经提出了两项​​诉讼。一方面,仲裁庭于8月6日作出裁决,然后在拒绝回复所有有关各方的多项澄清要求后,确认其确实在8月16日。

首先,正如预期的那样,Ruta del Sol合约被宣布为null。重要的是,这一部分裁决允许法庭根据2018年第1882号法律对合同的清算价值进行计算,并且由于该项目在大约两年前被撤回政府,因此没有其他含义。

其次,法庭裁定,自合同于2017年2月结束以来,已向员工,供应商和银行支付的款项,加起来约为Ps。 1.5万亿,政府应该支付额外的Ps。 21亿美元给CRDS的债权人,其中银行系统欠债约为Ps。 1.2万亿。我们一直在仔细研究,并且在痛苦的细节中,这份长达700页的裁决案文有几个问题,即法官如何适用清算价值的法律。

我们不知道受这些裁决影响的其他部分在寻找法律资源方面会做些什么,但我们会考虑法律支持的所有途径。由于最终决议可能需要一段时间,我们预计我们的银行将在今年结束前提供当前CRDS风险。

In our case, as of June 30 we had a net exposure of Ps. 380 billion equivalent to 23 basis points of our current average loan portfolio. We estimate Ps.170 billion the impact after taxes of this addition of provision expense on our own attributable net income or about 5% of our yearly results.
The other front that showed some advances was the antitrust process at the Superintendence of Industry and Commerce, the SIC. As part of this proceeding all the parties to this investigation had officially requested that the SIC included certain documents and call certain witnesses to support the investigation.
In a recent decision, the SIC granted most of these requests. That investigation continues and we will report of any material advances once they occur. We have no further information regarding Ruta del Sol legal proceedings.
To end, allow me to summarize our macroeconomic guidance for 2019. GDP growth between 3% and 3.25%; inflation around 3.5% with an upward bias due to the pass-through effect of the devaluation; unemployment not improving; exchange rates of around Ps. 3400 per dollar for the remainder of the year; fiscal deficit on target for this year at 2.7%; next year the government will have to face the decision of either cutting costs or disposing of some assets; on the current account front the vulnerability will persist until we find a strong source of alternative exports or reduce imports; and growth in Central America upwards of 3%.
Now I pass the presentation onto to Diego who will explain in further detail our business results.

在我们的案例中,截至6月30日,我们有净曝光率。 3800亿美元相当于我们目前平均贷款组合的23个基点。我们估计,这笔增加的拨备费用对我们自己的应占净收入征税后的影响为170亿卢比,约占我们年度业绩的5%。

显示出一些进步的另一个方面是工业和商业监督局SIC的反垄断程序。作为该程序的一部分,本次调查的所有当事方都正式要求SIC包括某些文件并要求某些证人支持调查。

在最近的一项决定中,SIC批准了大部分这些请求。该调查仍在继续,我们将在发生任何重大进展后进行报告。我们没有关于Ruta del Sol法律诉讼的进一步信息。

最后,请允许我总结一下我们对2019年的宏观经济指引。国内生产总值增长在3%到3.25%之间;由于贬值的传递影响,通货膨胀率上升3.5%左右;失业没有改善; Ps附近的汇率。今年剩余时间每美元3400美元;今年的财政赤字为2.7%;明年,政府将不得不面临削减成本或处置某些资产的决定;在经常账户方面,这种脆弱性将持续存在,直到我们找到强大的替代出口来源或减少进口;中美洲的增长率高达3%。

现在我将演示文稿传递给Diego,他将更详细地解释我们的业务成果。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Thank you, Luis Carlos. I will now move to our consolidated results of Grupo Aval under IFRS and wrap up with our guidance for 2019. As mentioned by Luis Carlos the second quarter of 2019 was a strong quarter for Grupo Aval due to an improvement in loan dynamics during the quarter particularly in Colombia; stronger net interest margin on loans and a solid performance of our fixed income portfolio; robust fee income during the quarter mainly attributable to pension fund management and banking fees; a sustained contribution of our non-financial sector; and strict cost control discipline.
Starting on page 9. Assets grew 12.8% over the year and 2.5% during the quarter. Colombian assets increased 12.7% over the last 12 months and 3% from the quarter driven by net loans, cash and intangibles and financial assets from our concessions and right-of-use assets.
In spite of an annual and quarterly contraction of 19.5% and 1.6% of Nicaraguan assets, Central America delivered 3.5% and 0.2% 12-month and 3-month growth in dollar terms.
Moving to page 10. Loans including repos grew 6.5% over the year and 1.3% during the quarter. Loan dynamics in Colombia continued trending positively while growth in Central America remains underpinned by the dynamics of Nicaragua.
Our Colombian corporate loan portfolio increased 0.9% over the quarter and 0.8% over the year. Commercial Peso denominated loans grew 0.9% the second consecutive positive quarter figure since first quarter 2018, following three consecutive paying quarters of contraction.
Strong growth of our Colombian retail portfolios continued to compensate the soft dynamics of our corporate portfolio. Colombian consumer and mortgage businesses expanded 9.9% and 16.3% respectively over the 12 months.
Quarterly growths were 2% and 3.4% respectively. Central American operations excluding Nicaragua expanded 4.4% in dollar terms for the year. Nicaragua, which weighs approximately 6% of our Central American loans, contracted by 27.7%.
On pages 11 and 12, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios. 30 days PDLs showed a slight deterioration during the quarter. Slow growth continues to affect PDL ratios in commercial loan portfolios in Colombia. We recorded an 18 basis points increase in 30 days commercial PDLs and 27 basis points in 90-day PDLs in the quarter in Colombia. In Central America, 30 days and 90 days commercial PDLs remained relatively stable both during the quarter with 30 days PDLs increasing seven basis points; and 90 days PDLs stable.
We continue to reducing the burden of the three corporate cases coverage for Ruta del Sol closed June at 47%. We expect to provision the remainder of Ruta del Sol during the rest of the year. Our coverage for SITP companies stands at 40% during the quarter. A slight increase in delinquency ratio of our consumer loan portfolio was driven by Central America.
In Colombia, the improving trend in delinquency of consumer loans persisted, with 30 days PDLs falling nine basis points during the quarter to 5%, accumulating a reduction of close to 1% since the peak in first quarter 2018. 90 days PDLs remained stable at 3% relative to first quarter 2019 and were 51 basis points lower than the year earlier.

谢谢路易斯卡洛斯。我现在将根据国际财务报告准则转到Grupo Aval的综合业绩,并结束我们对2019年的指导。正如路易斯卡洛斯所提到的,2019年第二季度是Grupo Aval强劲的季度,因为本季度贷款动态有所改善。在哥伦比亚;贷款净息差加强,固定收益组合表现稳健;本季度强劲的手续费收入主要归因于养老基金管理和银行手续费;我们的非金融部门的持续贡献;和严格的成本控制纪律。

从第9页开始。资产全年增长12.8%,本季度增长2.5%。哥伦比亚资产在过去12个月中增长了12.7%,而本季度由我们的特许权和使用权资产的净贷款,现金和无形资产以及金融资产所带动的增长了3%。

尽管尼加拉瓜资产的年度和季度收缩率分别为19.5%和1.6%,但按美元计算,中美洲的12个月和3个月的增长率为3.5%和0.2%。

转到第10页。包括回购在内的贷款在过去一年中增长了6.5%,在本季度增长了1.3%。哥伦比亚的贷款动态继续呈现积极趋势,而中美洲的增长仍然受到尼加拉瓜动态的支撑。

我们的哥伦比亚公司贷款组合在本季度增长0.9%,同比增长0.8%。继连续三个季度的收缩后,商业比索计价贷款连续第二个季度增长0.9%,连续三个季度以来连续第二个季度出现这一数字。

我们哥伦比亚零售组合的强劲增长继续弥补我们公司投资组合的疲软动态。哥伦比亚消费者和抵押贷款业务在12个月内分别增长9.9%和16.3%。

季度增长率分别为2%和3.4%。今年中美洲不包括尼加拉瓜的业务按美元计算增长4.4%。尼加拉瓜约占中美洲贷款的6%,收缩27.7%。

在第11页和第12页,我们提出了几种贷款组合质量比率。 30天PDL在本季度略有恶化。增长缓慢继续影响哥伦比亚商业贷款组合的PDL比率。我们在哥伦比亚本季度的30天商业PDL和90天PDL中的27个基点增加了18个基点。在中美洲,30天和90天商业PDL在本季度保持相对稳定,30天PDL增加7个基点;和90天PDL稳定。

我们继续减少Ruta del Sol三个公司案件的负担,截至6月份,该案件的覆盖率为47%。我们预计在今年剩余时间内提供剩余的Ruta del Sol。本季度我们对SITP公司的报道率为40%。中美洲推动消费贷款组合的拖欠比率略有上升。

在哥伦比亚,消费贷款拖欠的趋势持续改善,本季度30天的PDL下降9个基点至5%,自2018年第一季度的峰值以来累计下降接近1%。90天PDL保持稳定相比2019年第一季度增长3%,比去年同期低51个基点。

In Central America, 30 days PDLs consumer loans increased 34 basis points to 4.8%, while 90 days PDLs increased 11 basis points to 2% both compared to a year earlier.
Our PDL for mortgages increased during the quarter driven by Central America. Despite of that the quality of our mortgage portfolio continues to be substantially better than the market average.
Cost of risk was 2.2% with a quarterly increase of 20 basis points driven by Colombian commercial loans with stability in Central America and an improvement in the Colombian consumer portfolio. PDL coverage for 90 days PDLs was 1.53 times.
On page 13, we present funding and deposits evolution. Funding dynamics were consistent with the strengthening of our balance sheet as we position ourselves for upcoming growth. Funding structure remained materially stable with deposits representing 75% of our total funding and our deposits-to-net loans ratio reaching 1%. Our liquidity position continues to be strong with our cash-to-deposit ratios at 18.0%.
Deposits increased 1.7% in the quarter and 9.2% over the last 12 months. Colombia increased 1.2% and Central America grew 1.8% in dollar terms respectively during the quarter. For the 12-month period, Colombia grew at 7.4%, while Central America grew at 3.9% in dollar terms.
On page 14, we present the evolution of our total capitalization, our attributable shareholders' equity and the capital adequacy ratio of our banks. Our total attributable equity increased during the quarter in line with net income. Total equity increased by Ps. 1.6 trillion, while our attributable equity increased by Ps. 926 billion. As of second quarter 2019, our banks show a profit in Tier 1 and total solvency ratios to enable adequate growth.
On page 15, we present our yield on loans, cost of funds, spreads and net interest margin. Our net interest margin increased 14 basis points mainly driven by a stronger net interest margin on loans in Central America. Our net interest margin and investments continues to be solid.
As anticipated pricing on consumer loans in Colombia became more aggressive during the quarter due to improvements in quality. We continue to expect some pressure on net interest margin and consumer loans as growth increase in the share of newly priced loans in our mix.
On page 16, we present net fees and other income. Gross fee income dynamics was particularly strong during the quarter. Pension funds management fees posted strong results coming from fees charged on return basis. Gross fees increased 8.7% in Colombia and 1.4% in dollar terms in Central America compared to second quarter 2018.
Our non-financial sector continues to deliver strong results and remain relatively stable over the quarter with better results from our energy and gas sector and a slight decline in income from infrastructure explained by slower progress in construction due to weather conditions. Our other operating income was substantially at the same level as during the previous quarter. Seasonal decrease in dividend income was offset by a Ps. 41 billion income from Banco de Bogotá's one-time change in five-year benefit plans for non-unionized employees with a Ps. 24 billion effect on Aval's attributable income.

在中美洲,30天PDL消费贷款增加34个基点至4.8%,而90天PDL与去年同期相比增加11个基点至2%。

在中美洲推动的季度,我们的抵押贷款PDL有所增加。尽管如此,我们的抵押贷款组合的质量仍然远高于市场平均水平。

风险成本为2.2%,由于哥伦比亚商业贷款稳定在中美洲并且哥伦比亚消费者组合有所改善,季度增长20个基点。 PDL覆盖90天PDL为1.53倍。

在第13页,我们提出资金和存款演变。随着我们为即将到来的增长做好准备,融资动态与我们的资产负债表的增强是一致的。融资结构保持实质稳定,存款占我们总资金的75%,存款与净贷款比率达到1%。我们的流动资金状况继续强劲,我们的现金存款比率为18.0%。

本季度存款增加1.7%,过去12个月增长9.2%。本季度哥伦比亚增长1.2%,中美洲按美元计算增长1.8%。在12个月期间,哥伦比亚增长了7.4%,而中美洲以美元计算增长了3.9%。

在第14页,我们介绍了我们的总资本化,我们的应占股东权益和我们银行的资本充足率的演变。本季度我们的应占权益总额与净收入一致。总权益增加了Ps。 1.6万亿美元,而我们的应占权益增加了Ps。 926亿。截至2019年第二季度,我们的银行在第1层和偿付能力比率中实现盈利,以实现充分增长。

在第15页,我们提供贷款收益率,资金成本,利差和净息差。我们的净息差增加了14个基点,主要是由于中美洲贷款净息差较强。我们的净息差和投资继续保持稳健。

由于质量的提高,哥伦比亚消费贷款的预期定价在本季度变得更加激进。我们继续预计净息差和消费贷款将面临一些压力,因为我们的新价格贷款占比增长。

在第16页,我们提供净费用和其他收入。本季度总费用收入动态特别强劲。养老基金管理费收取了强烈的结果,来自收取的退税费用。与2018年第二季度相比,中美洲的哥伦比亚总收费增长8.7%,以美元计算增长1.4%。

我们的非金融业继续取得强劲业绩,并在本季度保持相对稳定,能源和天然气行业取得更好的业绩,基础设施收入略有下降,原因是天气条件导致建设进展缓慢。我们的其他营业收入与上一季度基本持平。股息收入的季节性下降被Ps抵消。来自BancodeBogotá的410亿收入为非工会雇员提供五年期福利计划的一次性改变。对Aval的应占收入产生240亿美元的影响。

On Page 17, we present some efficiency ratios. Year-to-date other expenses grew 5.7% relative to a year earlier. Total other expenses grew 0.7% in Colombia and 2.4% in Central America in dollar terms during this period.
Year-to-date personnel expenses increased 4.1%. Year-to-date administrative expenses increased 0.5%. And when adding IFRS 16 related depreciation and administration to administrative expenses, the figure was 7.0%.
Improvement in year-to-date efficiency measured as cost-to-income resulted from tightening expenses, a higher net interest margin, and a higher income from our nonfinancial sector.
Finally on Page 18, we present our net income and profitability ratios. Our total net income for second quarter 2019 was Ps. 813 billion or Ps. 36 per share. Return on average assets and return on average equity for the quarter were 2.1% and 18.3% respectively.
Before moving into questions-and-answers, I will now summarize our general guidance and financial performance. We expect loan growth to be in the 8% area in 2019. We expect our cost of risk net of recoveries to be in the 2.3% area in 2019 incorporating fully provisioning through price by year end. We expect full year net interest margin to be in the 5.7% area. Finally, we expect the return on average equity to be in the 15% area during the year.
We now are available for your questions.

在第17页,我们提出了一些效率比。年初至今的其他支出较上年同期增长5.7%。在此期间,哥伦比亚的其他支出总额按美元计算增长0.7%,中美洲增长2.4%。

年初至今的人事费用增长了4.1%。年初至今的行政开支增加0.5%。在将IFRS 16相关的折旧和管理添加到管理费用时,该数字为7.0%。

年初至今效率的改善以成本收入衡量,这是因为费用收紧,净息差增加以及非金融部门的收入增加。

最后在第18页,我们介绍了我们的净收入和盈利率。我们2019年第二季度的总净收入是Ps。 813亿或Ps。每股36。本季度平均资产回报率和平均股本回报率分别为2.1%和18.3%。

在进入问答环节之前,我现在将总结一般指导和财务业绩。我们预计2019年贷款增长率将达到8%。我们预计2019年我们的回收风险成本将在2.3%的范围内,并在年底前通过价格完全配置。我们预计全年净利息收益率将在5.7%的范围内。最后,我们预计年内平均股本回报率将在15%左右。

我们现在可以提供您的问题。

问答环节

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from Andres Soto from Santander.

谢谢。 我们现在开始问答环节。 [操作员说明]我们有来自Santander的Andres Soto的问题。

Andres Soto

Good morning. Thank you for this presentation. I would like to understand better your views on asset quality. Obviously, Nicaragua's macro environment and Colombia's slowing growth doesn't help.
But I would like to understand going forward what are you seeing in terms of asset quality performance? When are you expecting this to peak? And in this context, what are your views on cost of risk over the medium term after the full coverage of the corporate cases this year?

早上好。 谢谢你的介绍。 我想更好地了解您对资产质量的看法。 显然,尼加拉瓜的宏观环境和哥伦比亚的增长放缓并没有帮助。

但我想了解您在资产质量表现方面的前景如何? 你什么时候想到这个高峰期? 在这种情况下,您对今年全面覆盖公司案件后的中期风险成本有何看法?

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Okay. Andres regarding asset quality, I think you need to break it down in pieces. We have two different forces; one in Central America as we mentioned and the other in Colombia is consumer and corporate.
And I'll go slightly back in history just to show how the cycles are working to refer to Colombia. Colombia what we saw was a consumer cycle starting earlier than the corporate cycle. Therefore, the consumer cycle has already peaked and is already recovering for the past two quarters. We expect that performance to continue.
And the reason in spite of our view on unemployment is that the customers that we serve are mainly concentrated in segments that are not yet affected by that kind of effect. So, we could -- we expect to continue to see that positive performance as has been demonstrated not only in our numbers but in the system as a whole.
Regarding the corporate cycle, the corporate cycle began with a lag of a few quarters to the consumer cycle. And even though it hasn't peaked yet, we haven't highlighted it in the call because it's not yet absolutely positive news, but we have started to see a slower deterioration in corporate loans.
But that points to the numbers end up consolidating and that we could be one or two quarters away from peaking in the, I would say, the statistical part of the corporate portfolio. This should be flattening pretty soon and we will be very happy to be able to give you much better news in our next call.
Then finally the large corporate cases that do affect how our numbers look like. We are in the process of cleaning those up. We already got that done for Nicaragua a few quarters ago. And as we mentioned, we expect to see that happening during -- for Ruta del Sol during the remainder of the year.
On the SITP front, we believe that we are properly provisioned, so we do not expect a lot of changes there. So, wrapping up, we are quite positive on how cost of risk should evolve. As always we'll prefer to be able to talk about this with numbers that have already been delivered but our sentiment is positive.
Regarding Central America, you pointed out Nicaragua, you're right on that. And then the region as a whole, we've mentioned in the past has had ups and downs, but we are positive on how that region is evolving as well. We mentioned in the past all other countries different from Nicaragua, but we believe that the things that needed to happen there were already delivered and the market is already picking up.
So for -- your last question was on our view on cost of risk. We do believe our cost of risk should break 2% once those things are delivered. So for next year, even though we do not want to give guidance on that at this point, we do expect to see the trends continue. As I mentioned, we should be there in the range that should have broken 2%. So, I believe with that I wrap up your question.

好的。关于资产质量的安德烈斯,我认为你需要把它分解成碎片。我们有两种不同的力量;我们提到的一个在中美洲,在哥伦比亚是另一个是消费者和企业。

我将稍微回顾一下历史,只是为了表明周期是如何引用哥伦比亚的。哥伦比亚我们看到的是一个消费周期早于公司周期开始。因此,消费周期已经达到顶峰,并且已经在过去两个季度恢复。我们希望性能继续下去。

我们对失业问题的看法是因为我们所服务的客户主要集中在尚未受到这种影响的细分市场。因此,我们可以 - 我们期望继续看到积极的表现,不仅在我们的数字中,而且在整个系统中都得到了证明。

关于企业周期,企业周期开始时滞后几个季度到消费者周期。即使它尚未达到顶峰,我们也没有在电话会议中突出显示它,因为它还不是绝对正面的消息,但我们已经开始看到公司贷款的缓慢恶化。

但这表明这些数字最终会巩固,而且我们可能会比公司投资组合的统计部分高出一两个季度。这应该很快就会变平,我们将非常高兴能够在下次电话会议中为您提供更好的消息。

最后,大型企业案例确实会影响我们的数字。我们正在清理那些。几个季度前我们已经为尼加拉瓜完成了这项工作。正如我们所提到的,我们希望在今年剩余时间内为Ruta del Sol发生这种情况。

在SITP方面,我们认为我们已经正确配置,因此我们预计不会有很多变化。总而言之,我们对风险成本应该如何演变非常积极。一如既往,我们宁愿能够用已经交付过的数字来讨论这个问题,但我们的情绪是积极的。

关于中美洲,你指出尼加拉瓜,你是对的。然后整个地区,我们过去曾提到过起伏不定,但我们对该地区的发展方式也持积极态度。我们过去提到过与尼加拉瓜不同的所有其他国家,但我们认为那里需要发生的事情已经实现,市场已经开始复苏。

所以 - 你的最后一个问题是我们对风险成本的看法。我们相信,一旦这些事情交付,我们的风险成本应该突破2%。因此,对于明年,即使我们现在不想就此提供指导,我们也希望看到趋势继续下去。正如我所提到的,我们应该在应该突破2%的范围内。所以,我相信我总结了你的问题。

会议主持员

The next question comes from Jason Mollin from Scotiabank.

接下来的问题来自丰业银行的Jason Mollin。

杰森莫林

Hi. My first question is on the outlook for return on equity that you cited at around 16%. You closed this quarter with 18%. The first quarter set around 17%. You did mention that you're going to -- the impact of the Ruta del Sol provisioning and what that represents. So it seems like the second half of the year, I mean even including the Ruta del Sol that you're looking for much softer returns. If you can comment a little bit on the drivers there, because it seems like there are some upsides to beat that expectation.
And my second question is just on the outlook for long-term rates. You mentioned the dynamics of inflation and the policy rate in Colombia. But if we look at the Colombian 10-year, we're definitely at the lows in the last five years. Just wanted to see your view on how that's impacting your view on returns for new investments, should your cost of equity be a bit lower in this construct, or do you think this is just a short-term phenomena in Colombia or globally. Thank you.

你好。我的第一个问题是你所引用的股本回报前景,约为16%。你本季度以18%收盘。第一季度约为17%。你确实提到了你要去的 - Ruta del Sol配置的影响以及它代表什么。所以看起来像今年下半年,我的意思是甚至包括Ruta del Sol,你正在寻找更柔和的回报。如果你能对那里的司机发表一点评论,因为似乎有一些好处可以击败那个期望。

我的第二个问题只是关于长期利率的前景。你提到了哥伦比亚的通货膨胀动态和政策利率。但如果我们看看哥伦比亚10年,我们肯定在过去五年中处于低谷。只是想看看你如何影响你对新投资回报的看法,如果你的股权成本在这个结构中略低,或者你认为这只是哥伦比亚或全球的短期现象。谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Well, I think regarding the outlook for return on equity, you're right. I believe we are looking perhaps on the same side. And the reason to do that is, one, as you mentioned Ruta del Sol. Ruta del Sol is actually quite impactful on our numbers. Then something to bear in mind is the way that which we are generating earnings therefore equity, so there's also a denominator effect there.
And finally, during this quarter we had many things that went right, so there could be some things that might be change in the future. For example, the interest rate environment has favored us in fixed income. So there's some space or changes there.
So at this point, we're looking to the 16% area. That is an improvement compared to what we set last time. And we're also dependent on what's happening with the global environment, particularly its effect on fixed income.
Untimed assets, your question on long-term rates. What's happening with long-term rates is not a Colombian-specific event. If you look around the world first half becomes quite flat, therefore, there is some room for changes there. I'm not an expert in global fixed income, but I would say that the risks that you might see around the world could also affect Colombia. So the shape of the curve is something that I will say is idiosyncratic to Colombia that's something that we are also being affected by what's happening in the rest of the world.

好吧,我认为关于股本回报的前景,你是对的。我相信我们也许正在寻找同一方面。这样做的原因是,正如你提到的Ruta del Sol。 Ruta del Sol实际上对我们的数字非常有影响力。那么要记住的是我们因此产生收益的方式,因此在那里也存在分母效应。

最后,在本季度我们有很多事情是正确的,所以可能会有一些事情可能在未来发生变化。例如,利率环境有利于我们固定收益。所以那里有一些空间或变化。

所以在这一点上,我们正在寻找16%的区域。与我们上次设定的相比,这是一个进步。而且我们还依赖于全球环境正在发生的事情,尤其是对固定收益的影响。

不定时资产,您对长期利率的问题。长期费率的变化不是哥伦比亚特有的事件。如果你环顾世界,前半部分变得相当平坦,因此,那里有一些变化的空间。我不是全球固定收益方面的专家,但我会说,你可能在世界各地看到的风险也会影响哥伦比亚。因此,对于哥伦比亚来说,曲线的形状是一种特殊的东西,我们也会受到世界其他地方正在发生的事情的影响。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jörg Friedemann from Citibank.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自花旗银行的JörgFriedemann。

JörgFriedemann

Hi. Appreciate the opportunity. Just an additional clarification or explanation in terms of the Ruta del Sol exposure. If I got it right, your pending exposure to the project is amounts to Ps 380 billion. And if I got it right, you have fixed provision Ps 170 billion, just wondering if these numbers are correct? And if I am right also looking into what you guided for the year in terms of cost of risk you told us 2.3%. Looking into what was happening in the first half, it will be implicitly that you could have cost of risk between 2.4% to 2.5% in the second half is that right?
And the second question, if you could give us a bit more color about, what should be the effective tax rate for the year? I noted that last year you got an increase in the second half just wondering if this is expected to happen again or not? Thank you.

你好。 欣赏机会。 只是对Ruta del Sol曝光的另外澄清或解释。 如果我做对了,你对该项目的未决投资金额将达到3800亿比索。 如果我做对了,你有固定的拨款1700亿比索,只是想知道这些数字是否正确? 如果我也是正确的,那么在风险成本方面你也会考虑你今年的指导,你告诉我们2.3%。 看看上半年发生了什么,下半年你可能会有2.4%到2.5%的风险成本是正确的吗?

第二个问题,如果你能给我们更多的颜色,那么今年的有效税率应该是多少? 我注意到,去年你在下半场有所增加只是想知道这是否会再次发生? 谢谢。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

All right, Jorg. Let me take the first question and Diego will take the other ones. On Ruta del Sol, our net exposure today is about Ps 380 billion exactly as you said. That is, because we've provisioned already about 47% of the gross exposure. Then – so our banks will have to provision Ps 380 billion between now and the end of the year, and they've started to do so. The effect in Aval's and the holding company's owned attributable net income of that additional provision is Ps 170 billion and that's what I was referring to. And that's about as we said about 5% of our total income for the year.

好的,Jorg。 让我提出第一个问题,迭戈将采取其他问题。 在Ruta del Sol,我们今天的净曝光率大约为380亿比索,正如您所说的那样。 也就是说,因为我们已经提供了大约47%的总曝光率。 那么 - 所以从现在到年底,我们的银行将不得不提供3800亿比索,他们已经开始这样做了。 Aval的影响以及控股公司所拥有的该额外拨备的应占净收入为1700亿比索,这就是我所说的。 就像我们说的那样,我们占全年总收入的5%左右。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Regarding your question on taxes and cost of risks what we're building, and let me tie this to my first answer. What we're building into why not 2.4%, but 2.3% that is what I believe you said is, we're incorporating Ruta del Sol, and we're also projecting how our consumer portfolio particularly should continue improving and taking away some of the deteriorations that we saw over this quarter. So it does reflect around 2.5% cost of risk for the second quarter that is quite high – the second half, I'm sorry, which is quite high for what we believe cost of risk for Aval should be, but with some improvement compared to what we're seeing now.
Finally, on taxes what is incorporated in our guidance is something in the order of magnitude of 30% for effective tax rate. And as I've mentioned in the past that is a blended of 70% Colombia and 30% in Central America, with lower tax rates in Central America.

关于我们正在构建的关于税收和风险成本的问题,让我将其与我的第一个答案联系起来。 我们正在构建的为什么不是2.4%,但我认为你说的是2.3%,我们正在整合Ruta del Sol,我们还预测我们的消费者组合应该如何继续改进并带走一些 我们在本季度看到的恶化。 所以它确实反映了第二季度相当高的2.5%的风险成本 - 下半年,对不起,我们认为Aval的风险成本应该是相当高的,但与 我们现在看到的是什么。

最后,在税收方面,我们指南中纳入的税率为有效税率的30%。 正如我过去所提到的那样,70%的哥伦比亚和30%的中美洲混合,中美洲的税率较低。

会议主持员

The next question comes from Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

接下来的问题来自摩根大通的Yuri Fernandes。

Yuri Fernandes

Hi, gentlemen. I had a question on the pension fund fee. It was a very strong quarter, and I just would like to know more details on, what is driving the growth in that line? Thank you.

嗨,先生们。 我对养老基金费用有疑问。 这是一个非常强大的季度,我只是想了解更多细节,是什么推动了该行的增长? 谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Okay. On the pension funds, I mentioned that, we are generating high fees as I say a portion of the funds that we manage that are related to returns obtained in the portfolios. Some of the fees particularly those for the compulsory pension plans, where people are not adding funds to their pension fund are compensated to us based on returns. Other pension funds are also managed in that way. In addition, we have some part of what the seasonality of how AFPs are obtained affecting us positively.

好的。 关于养老基金,我提到,我们正在产生高额费用,因为我说我们管理的部分资金与投资组合中获得的回报相关。 一些费用,特别是强制性养老金计划的费用,人们不向其养老基金增加资金,根据回报向我们补偿。 其他养老基金也以这种方式管理。 此外,我们还有一些关于AFP如何获得的季节性影响我们的一部分。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Sebastián Gallego from CrediCorp Capital.

我们的下一个问题来自CrediCorp Capital的SebastiánGallego。

Sebastián Gallego

您的下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的Umer Raffat。...

Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the presentation. I have three questions. The first one, you talked about the cycle on the commercial and the consumer segment in Colombia, but I guess you didn't talk about the mortgage cycle. We have seen some upward pressure particularly on the 90-day NPL ratio on the mortgage segment. Could you comment on that and what's the outlook for the mortgage portfolio?
Second question probably a follow-up or a new question on Ruta del Sol 2. Given the ruling on Ruta del Sol 2 what's the long-term outlook of Corficolombiana in terms of appetite for new infrastructure projects?
And the third question is regarding DALE. I know you mentioned that you would probably comment a bit more in the upcoming conference call, but can you provide the bit more detail on what are you intending to do and how is that comparable to other peers or what other products from peers? Thank you.

嗨,大家早上好。 谢谢你的介绍。 我有三个问题。 第一个,你谈到哥伦比亚的商业和消费者细分周期,但我想你没有谈论抵押贷款周期。 我们看到一些上行压力,特别是抵押贷款部门的90天不良贷款率。 您能评论一下这个以及抵押贷款组合的前景如何?

第二个问题可能是关于Ruta del Sol 2的后续问题或新问题。鉴于对Ruta del Sol 2的裁决,Corficolombiana在新基础设施项目方面的长期前景是什么?

第三个问题是关于DALE。 我知道你提到过你可能会在即将召开的电话会议上多评论一下,但是你能否提供一些关于你打算做什么以及与其他同行或其他同类产品相比的细节? 谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Let me take the first question and pass it to Luis Carlos regarding the mortgage performance. I think, you have to bear in mind that our number is a very positive number compared to market average. We could be around 60% of where market average delinquencies stand. We have seen some deterioration there, but I would say its part of the process of getting a young portfolio to mature.
In addition, there were some particular glitches in some of our banks that were already solved a couple of months ago where we were able to identify some pockets of mortgages that were not performing as we desire, but that's an issue that has already been dealt with. And regarding the environment, as also with the rest of the market, I can't really comment much more than what I've said for our portfolio.

让我提出第一个问题并将其转交给路易斯卡洛斯关于抵押贷款的表现。 我想,你必须记住,与市场平均水平相比,我们的数字是一个非常正数。 我们可能占市场平均违约率的60%左右。 我们已经看到了一些恶化,但我会说它是让年轻投资组合成熟的过程的一部分。

此外,我们的一些银行出现了一些特殊问题,几个月前我们已经解决了这些问题,我们能够找到一些不按我们的意愿履行的抵押贷款,但这是一个已经处理过的问题。。 关于环境,以及市场的其他部分,我不能真正评论比我对我们的投资组合所说的更多。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

Thank you, gentlemen. Regarding the other two questions, on one hand, you asked about Corficolombiana's long-term outlook for infrastructure and -- well to start with that. As you know, Corficolombiana's already building three of four 4G projects that it acquired some years ago. Those four projects have different advances. And starting with one of them is already up to like 51% progress and then the other ones are oscillating between 16% and 23%. So that -- those numbers give you an idea that we still have a long ways to go before we finish those.
So, obviously our appetite is still very strong because, we have to on one hand finish those, we still have maybe four or five years to go. There's a fourth 4G project that we haven't even started that we're still waiting on environmental licenses and so that one still will have its own five or six years to go.
And then, besides that, Corficolombiana is still the largest toll road operator in the country. So, that should give you an idea how much of an appetite we have for that. And then, as new projects come up, we'll look at them. We'll look at them but -- I would say our plate is pretty full at this point with infrastructure.
And then, regarding DALE, DALE is different than anybody else's offer first of all because DALE is a company in itself. It's called a set pay and a set pay here is different from all the other companies because of -- we start with set pay is under the direct supervision of the Superintendence of Finance and a set pay can take in deposit.
Secondly, nobody will really have the offer that we will offer through our set pay DALE. We will cover ways of doing business that nobody else can because of the licenses that are afforded to us via the set pay. We will have as I said not only P2P that everybody offers, but we will have P2C and C2P transactions. And then, we'll have some other features that we will soon announce and I think they'll be interesting to the public in general. At the end, what we really want to do is deepen our banking penetration and really as we said to take out of the market some of the cash transaction that are now being performed. If we can get those two things, I think we'll be very happy with our results.

先生们,谢谢你们。关于另外两个问题,一方面,你问过Corficolombiana对基础设施的长期展望,以及 - 从那开始。如你所知,Corficolombiana已经建立了几年前收购的四个4G项目中的三个。这四个项目有不同的进展。从其中一个开始已经达到了51%的进步,然后其他的则在16%到23%之间振荡。所以 - 这些数字让你知道我们在完成这些工作之前还有很长的路要走。

所以,显然我们的胃口仍然非常强烈,因为我们必须一方面完成这些,我们还有四五年的时间。还有第四个4G项目,我们还没有开始,我们还在等待环境许可证,所以一个人还有五六年的时间。

此外,除此之外,Corficolombiana仍然是该国最大的收费公路运营商。所以,这应该让你知道我们对此有多大的胃口。然后,随着新项目的出现,我们将会看到它们。我们会看看它们,但是 - 我会说我们的基板在此时基础设施非常充足。

然后,关于DALE,DALE首先与其他任何人的提议不同,因为DALE本身就是一家公司。它被称为固定工资,这里的固定工资与所有其他公司不同,因为 - 我们从固定工资开始是在财务监督的直接监督下,固定工资可以存入。

其次,没有人真的会通过我们的定额付款DALE提供优惠。由于通过固定工资向我们提供的许可证,我们将涵盖其他人无法开展业务的方式。正如我所说的那样,不仅每个人都提供P2P,而且我们将进行P2C和C2P交易。然后,我们将会有一些我们即将公布的其他功能,我认为它们对公众来说会很有趣。最后,我们真正想要做的是加深我们的银行业渗透率,并且正如我们所说的那样,正在从市场中取出一些现在正在进行的现金交易。如果我们能得到这两件事,我想我们会对结果非常满意。

会议主持员

Our next question comes from Alonso Aramburu from BTG.

我们的下一个问题来自BTG的Alonso Aramburu。

Alonso Aramburu

Hi, good morning and thank you for the call. I have two questions. One, a follow-up on Corficolombiana which has been contributing nicely to earnings, given the progress you've mentioned in the three projects, how should we expect earnings contribution from Corficolombiana to continue in the coming quarters? And second, can you give us the cost of risk excluding the provisions that were down for Ruta del Sol and SITP this quarter?

嗨,早上好,谢谢你的来电。 我有两个问题。 其中一个是Corficolombiana的后续行动,它对收益做出了很好的贡献,鉴于你在三个项目中提到的进展,我们应该如何预期Corficolombiana的收益贡献将在未来几个季度继续? 第二,你能否给我们带来风险成本,不包括本季度Ruta del Sol和SITP的减少条款?

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Regarding Corficolombiana, we expect Corficolombiana to continue contributing as it has done over the past quarters or a few years. We've mentioned in the past that the construction period have -- toll roads takes around four to five years. So during that period of time with different levels of strength, we should be advancing and generating contribution from Corficolombiana. The contribution at this point at the Aval level could have been around Ps.140 billion.
Regarding provisions different from what we've mentioned in the past there hasn't been any really material provisions during the second quarter. I believe you are referring to Ruta del Sol and SITP, none of those were really material for the second quarter results.

关于Corficolombiana,我们预计Corficolombiana将继续像过去几个季度或几年一样做出贡献。 我们过去曾提到建设期间 - 收费公路需要大约四到五年。 因此,在不同强度水平的那段时间里,我们应该推进并产生Corficolombiana的贡献。 此时在Aval级别的贡献可能大约为140亿比索。

关于与我们过去提到的不同的规定,第二季度没有任何真正的重要条款。 我相信你指的是Ruta del Sol和SITP,这些都不是第二季度的结果。

会议主持员

Thank you. The next question comes from Nicolas Riva from Bank of America.

谢谢。 接下来的问题来自美国银行的Nicolas Riva。

Nicolas Riva

Thanks for taking my question. Just one more question on Ruta del Sol. I understand that you said that the exposure was a scenario would be Ps.170 million at the Grupo Aval level net of capital minorities. One question in that scenario, are you assuming that the banks get paid zero? Just to understand there's going to be a third payment, which is going to be Ps.211 billion and about half of that should go to Group Aval if you are assuming that case then the banks are not going to get paid in the last payment? Thanks.

谢谢你提出我的问题。 关于Ruta del Sol的另外一个问题。 据我所知,你曾说过,在Grupo Aval级别的资本少数民族净额中,这种情况将达到170万卢比。 在这种情况下的一个问题是,你假设银行得到零补偿吗? 只是为了理解将会有第三笔付款,这将是21.1亿比索,如果您假设那个案例银行不会在最后一笔付款中获得报酬,那么其中大约一半应该转到Group Aval? 谢谢。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

Correct. We are assuming that we'll provision 100% of the loans and that the Ps.211 billion that the arbitration tribunal talked about will be tangled up in suits until the end of at least this year.

正确。 我们假设我们将提供100%的贷款,而仲裁庭所谈论的21.1亿比索将至少在今年结束之前纠缠在一起。

会议主持员

Thank you. The next question comes from Carlos Rodríguez from Ultraserfinco.

谢谢。 接下来的问题来自Ultraserfinco的CarlosRodríguez。

Carlos Rodríguez

卡洛斯罗德里格斯

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for the conference call. Regarding the consumer loan and especially credit cards, we have seen this positive growth. I got a question of what has driven this growth, and how much far can you push that growth? And if you can comment on the strategy if it has been current customers increasing loans or buying loans from other banks and adding new customers? Thank you.

大家早上好,谢谢你的电话会议。 关于消费贷款,特别是信用卡,我们看到了这种积极的增长。 我有一个问题是什么推动了这种增长,你能推动这种增长多远? 如果您当前的客户增加贷款或从其他银行购买贷款并增加新客户,您是否可以评论该策略? 谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Yes. Okay. What we've seen is that the reason for growth in consumer has been a combination of many things. Number one, improvement in the quality of the portfolio that has enabled us to increase our appetite to grow in that area. Second, something that we've been talking about in the last few conferences is the results of our digital effort, which have simplified the process of onboarding customers. In that sense it's not only existing customers but also a substantial portion of customers that we wouldn't have had access in the past with the kind of strategy that we were deploying.
So it's a combination of the many things. Number one, some recovery in the economy, some improvements in consumer confidence, a much better delivery from our siding of onboarding new customers plus a better environment on the quality side that enables us to bring more customers in. So what we're seeing is a very substantial potential to continue growing in consumer if the environment, in which we're working continues to be solved.

是。好的。我们所看到的是,消费者增长的原因是许多事情的结合。排名第一的是,投资组合的质量得到改善,这使我们能够增加对该领域增长的兴趣。其次,我们在最近几次会议上谈到的是我们的数字化努力的结果,这简化了入职客户的过程。从这个意义上说,不仅是现有客户,而且还有很大一部分客户,我们过去根本无法访问我们正在部署的策略。

所以这是许多事情的组合。排名第一,经济有所恢复,消费者信心有所改善,我们支持新客户的更好交付以及质量方面更好的环境使我们能够吸引更多客户。所以我们所看到的是如果我们正在努力的环境继续得到解决,那么在消费者中继续增长的巨大潜力。

会议主持员

Thank you. The next question comes from Colin Maria [ph] from Davivienda Corredores.

谢谢。 接下来的问题来自Davivienda Corredores的Colin Maria [ph]。

身份不明的分析师

Good morning. Some of my questions have already been answered, but however I would also like to know what are your strategies about Central America regarding some future acceleration from the U.S. economy? Thank you.

早上好。 我的一些问题已经得到了回答,但是我还想知道你对中美洲未来美国经济加速的策略是什么? 谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Well, regarding Central America, the way to think about Central America is not as a single country. Central America depends on the dynamics of different countries. We have had a black spot that has been the performance of Nicaragua that has generated some difficulties but the rest of the region even though some of the countries have had their own issues is performing pretty well. Then we have a something very positive for the region and it turns that it's a net in quarter of oil, so what is happening now should continue to help them.

那么,关于中美洲,思考中美洲的方式不是一个单一的国家。 中美洲取决于不同国家的动态。 我们有一个黑点,尼加拉瓜的表现已经产生了一些困难,但该地区的其他地区,尽管一些国家有自己的问题表现相当不错。 然后我们对该地区有一些非常积极的东西,它变成了四分之一的石油,所以现在发生的事情应该继续帮助他们。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

Yeah. And you can't forget that Central America's our strongest business in the merchant acquiring and credit card issuance. So the whole region does sort of depend on prices of oil and oil -- and also because Central American is a big oil importer. And on the other hand, Central America is a huge receiver of remittances from the States.
So, it tends to happen when the U.S. economy weakens, remittances tend to drop. And obviously that affects the economy. But as Diego was saying, obviously its economy has its own life. And the lives of all but Nicaragua's are doing okay.
So at the end, I don't think we have to really change our strategy. We are looking obviously at -- always looking at growth, both organic and inorganic. And we'll see if things continue the way they are. As I said, Central America as a region will grow, in excess of 3%. And that's defined the whole group's strategy.

是啊。 而且你不能忘记中美洲是我们在商业收购和信用卡发行方面最强大的业务。 所以整个地区确实依赖于石油和石油的价格 - 而且因为中美洲是一个重要的石油进口国。 而另一方面,中美洲是美国汇款的巨大接收者。

因此,当美国经济疲软,汇款趋于下降时,往往会发生这种情况。 显然这会影响经济。 但正如迭戈所说,显然它的经济有自己的生命。 除了尼加拉瓜之外,所有人的生活都很好。

所以最后,我认为我们不必真正改变我们的战略。 我们看起来很明显 - 总是关注有机和无机的增长。 我们会看到事情是否会继续下去。 正如我所说,中美洲作为一个地区将增长超过3%。 这就是整个集团的战略定义。

会议主持员

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Flores from Citi.

谢谢。 我们的下一个问题来自花旗的布莱恩弗洛雷斯。

Brian Flores

Brian Flores

Hi. Thank you for taking my question, just a quick question on your net interest margin guidance for, 2019? And if you could, explain on the driver behind? Thank you.

你好。 感谢您提出我的问题,只是关于2019年净利息保证金指引的快速提问? 如果可以,请解释后面的驱动程序? 谢谢。

Diego Fernando Solano Saravia

Well. We have -- as I mentioned, the net interest margin was helped by what was happening in Central America. Central America has had some expansion in net interest margin in some of the countries. In addition, something that has been helping us has been the net interest margin of our consumer portfolio.
I mentioned we've had some pressure there on rates. But on the other hand, the cost -- our asset fund is not increasing. That regarding NIM unknowns. Then something to add to get the overall interest margin is within delivering returns around 2.5% already for a couple of quarters and the fixed income side, and that is also helping us, to achieve these kind of numbers.

好。 我们 - 正如我所提到的那样,净利息收益率得益于中美洲的情况。 中美洲的一些国家的净息差有所扩大。 此外,一直帮助我们的是我们消费者投资组合的净息差。

我提到我们在费率上有一些压力。 但另一方面,成本 - 我们的资产基金没有增加。 关于NIM未知数。 然后添加一些东西以获得整体利差,在几个季度和固定收益方面已经提供了大约2.5%的回报,这也有助于我们实现这些数字。

会议主持员

Thank you. We have no further questions at this time. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. I will now return the call to Mr. Sarmiento, for closing remarks.

谢谢。 我们目前没有其他问题。 女士们,先生们,谢谢你们。 我现在将致电萨米恩托先生,致闭幕词。

Luis CarlosSarmientoGutiérrez

Thank you, Hilda. And thank you all for attending our second quarter call. And we hope to see you again soon in the third quarter call. And as always we expect to keep delivering. And thank you very much. See you next time.

谢谢,希尔达。 谢谢大家参加我们的第二季度电话会议。 我们希望在第三季度的电话会议中再次见到您。 一如既往,我们期望继续提供。 非常感谢你。 下次见。

会议主持员

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的会议结束了。 感谢您的参与。 您现在可以断开连接。

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