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L Brands Inc (NYSE:LB) Q2 2019 Results Earnings Conference Call August 22, 2019 9:00 AM ET
L Brands Inc（纽约证券交易所代码：[LB]）2019年第二季度业绩收益电话会议2019年8月22日美国东部时间上午9:00
Amie Preston - Chief Investor Relations Officer
Stuart Burgdoerfer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
- Amie Preston - 首席投资者关系官
- Stuart Burgdoerfer - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Kimberly Greenberger - Morgan Stanley
Paul Lejuez - Citi Research
Alex Walvis - Goldman Sachs
Mark Altschwager - Baird
Lorraine Hutchinson - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Ike Boruchow - Wells Fargo
Susan Anderson - B. Riley FBR
William Reuter - Bank of America
Roxanne Meyer - MKM Partners
Dana Telsey - Telsey Advisory Group
Kate Fitzsimons - RBC Capital Markets
Omar Saad - Evercore ISI
Jamie Merriman - Bernstein
Michael Binetti - Credit Suisse
- 金伯利格林伯格 - 摩根士丹利
- Paul Lejuez - 花旗研究
- 亚历克斯沃尔维斯 - 高盛
- Mark Altschwager - 贝尔德
- Lorraine Hutchinson - 美国银行美林证券
- Ike Boruchow - 富国银行
- Susan Anderson - B. Riley FBR
- 威廉路透社 - 美国银行
- Roxanne Meyer - MKM Partners
- 达纳特尔西 - 特尔西咨询集团
- 凯特菲茨西蒙斯 - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场
- Omar Saad - Evercore ISI
- 杰米梅里曼 - 伯恩斯坦
- Michael Binetti - 瑞士信贷
Good morning. My name is Heidi, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the L Brands' Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions].
I will now turn the call over to Ms. Amie Preston, Chief Investor Relations Officer of L Brands. You may begin.
早上好。 我的名字是Heidi，今天我将成为你的会议运营商。 在这个时候，我想欢迎大家参加L Brands 2019年第二季度收益电话会议。 所有线路都已静音以防止任何背景噪音。 发言者发言后，将会有一个问答环节。 [操作员说明]。
我现在将电话转给L Brands首席投资者关系官员Amie Preston女士。 你可以开始吧。
Thank you, Heidi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to L Brands' second quarter earnings conference call for the period ending Saturday, August 3, 2019. As a matter of formality, I need to remind you that any forward-looking statements we may make today are subject to our Safe Harbor statement found in our SEC filings and in our press releases. Our second quarter earnings release, additional commentary, and our earnings presentation are all available on our website, lb.com. All of the results discussed in today's call are adjusted results, and exclude the significant item described in our press release.
Stuart Burgdoerfer, EVP and CFO, and I will handle the call today. Thanks, and now I'll turn it over to Stuart.
谢谢Heidi。 各位大家早上好，欢迎参加L Brands第二季度收益电话会议，讨论截止日期为2019年8月3日星期六。作为一个正式的问题，我需要提醒您，我们今天可能做出的任何前瞻性陈述都是主题 我们在美国证券交易委员会的文件和新闻稿中发现的安全港声明。 我们的第二季度收益发布，额外评论以及我们的收益报告均可在我们的网站lb.com上获取。 今天电话会议中讨论的所有结果都是调整后的结果，并且不包括我们新闻稿中描述的重要项目。
我和执行副总裁兼首席财务官Stuart Burgdoerfer今天将接听电话。 谢谢，现在我将把它交给斯图尔特。
Thanks, Amie, and good morning, everyone. Our second quarter earnings per share results at $0.24 was above our initial guidance of $0.15 to $0.20, with upside driven by favorability in income taxes.
Bath & Body Works continues to deliver strong results, with an 8% comp increase and a 7% increase in operating income. The operating income increase at Bath & Body Works, an improvement in the international business and in the other segment as a result of the sale of La Senza and the closure of Henri Bendel was offset by a decline at Victoria’s Secret.
Looking to the second half of our year, our number one priority continues to be improving performance at Victoria’s Secret. As we noted in the commentary that we released last night, John Mehas and Amy Hauk, CEOs at Victoria’s Secret Lingerie and PINK respectively, have made significant changes to our fall assortments. The significant amount of change in our fall merchandise assortments and promotional plans, as well as the current trade environment and tariff uncertainty, inherently result in a greater level of uncertainty in forecasting our results for the third and fourth quarters than is typical.
That said, we believe that customers will react positively to our new merchandise. And therefore, as we said consistently, we have assumed in our guidance that Victoria's Secret trends will improve versus recent performance, and that Bath & Body Works will continue to deliver strong results.
You'll hear more from John and Amie, as well as other business leaders at our Investor Day, which is scheduled for September 10th. Thanks, and over to you Amie.
Bath＆Body Works继续提供强劲的业绩，同比增长8％，营业收入增长7％。由于出售La Senza和Henri Bendel的关闭，Bath＆Body Works的营业收入增长，国际业务和其他业务的改善被Victoria's Secret的下降所抵消。
展望今年下半年，我们的首要任务仍然是改善维多利亚秘密的表现。正如我们在昨晚发表的评论中所指出的那样，维多利亚秘密内衣和PINK的首席执行官John Mehas和Amy Hauk分别对我们的秋季产品进行了重大改变。我们的秋季商品分类和促销计划的大量变化，以及当前的贸易环境和关税不确定性，固有地导致在预测第三和第四季度的结果方面存在更大的不确定性。
Thanks, Stuart. That concludes our prepared comments. At this time, we'll be happy to take any questions you might have. In the interest of time and consideration to others, please limit yourself to one question. Thanks, and I'll turn it back over to Heidi.
谢谢，斯图尔特。 结束了我们准备的评论。 在这个时候，我们很乐意回答您的任何问题。 为了时间和对他人的考虑，请限制自己一个问题。 谢谢，我会把它转回Heidi。
[Operator Instructions]. And your first question comes from the line is Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.
My question is on the VS Lingerie business. I think you said initial indications in the first part of August have been favorable. I was just -- I'm curious what you mean by that? And do you think that the lingerie piece, the new fall assortment is enough to replace the lost volume in core bras? I'm just wondering, if we don't see an improvement from the first 2.5 weeks of August, it sounds like Victoria’s Secret will not be on track to deliver the expected third quarter numbers. So I'm just trying to understand what the puts and takes are?
我的问题是VS内衣业务。 我想你说8月上半月的初步迹象是有利的。 我只是 - 我很好奇你的意思是什么？ 而且你认为内衣片，新款秋季品种足以取代核心文胸中丢失的体积吗？ 我只是想知道，如果我们看不到8月份的前2.5周有所改善，那么听起来维多利亚的秘密将无法实现预期的第三季度数据。 所以我只是想了解什么是投入和采取的？
So as it relates to the new lingerie assortment, modern lingerie, as we refer to it and initial results, as we’ve provided commentary in our pre-released remarks, the consumer reaction, Kimberly, to the new assortment and the new items in the assortment has been favorable and positive. And consumer is reacting well. But as you point out in your question, and all I can report to you is what we've observed so far and how things will progress as we see it based on what we believe for fall, the reaction to the new stuff has been very good.
With that said, it hasn't been to-date sufficient to overcome weakness in the balance of the lingerie assortment, including the effect of heavy promotions from a year ago that will continue through the fall season.
Importantly, there will be additional new merchandise flowing through the fall season. So the full fall assortment was not in stores in the first few weeks of August. So we're reading a partial result.
Additionally, we're very optimistic about our offering and the potential for growth in the sleep and lounge business. That as you appreciate, skews in terms of its proportion to the total to a greater percentage of that total as we move through the fall season, given its giftability and just general seasonality for sleep and lounge. We've got more work that we're doing on marketing, and we believe that our marketing effectiveness will improve as we move through the fall season.
So qualitatively that's -- that would be the additional perspective that we have in answer to your question. So consumer reaction, again strong and favorable to the new offerings, yet not sufficient to deliver an overall result that changes the trend so far, more new merchandise flowing through the balance of fall, and a lot of work going on in marketing to more effectively market the changes and drive traffic into stores. Thanks.
Your next question is from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citi Research. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自Paul Lejuez与Citi Research的合作。 请继续。
Stuart, can you may just talk about how swim performed during the spring season as a whole, now that you kind of brought that category back to some extent. Any update on what that category might look like in spring of '20? And then just going back to Victoria's Secret for a second. I just want to understand a little bit about the inventory pickup of Victoria's Secret, where are you investing? And I just want to tie that back to, I believe you said you've got some hopes to be less promotional in some of the prepared materials that were sent around, just maybe square that away for us? Thanks.
斯图尔特，你可以谈谈整个春季游泳的表现，现在你已经在某种程度上恢复了这个类别。 关于那个类别在20年春天可能会是什么样子的任何更新？ 然后回到维多利亚的秘密一秒钟。 我只是想了解维多利亚秘密的库存增加，你在哪里投资？ 而我只是想把它重新绑在一起，我相信你说你有一些希望在一些准备好的材料中减少宣传，只是为了我们而去的广场？ 谢谢。
So Paul, as you're asking that we reentered the swim business this year. We made that decision relatively late in 2018, into early 2019. So our reentry into that business happened in the latter part of March, as I recall it. So we missed a little bit of natural season for swim. It generated in round numbers about $30 million of volume, $40 million of volume versus what it had been in the past. We do believe that there is substantial additional growth opportunity in swim.
Our focus, as we've conveyed previously, is to pursue that business online and generally with more elevated assortment than what we had offered in the past and consumer reaction to that -- while there was a little bit of commentary out there about price points, overall the reaction to what we put in front of customers was positive. So it was a good start, particularly given the timing of our decision. There is meaningful additional growth opportunity in that category. Again, I'm repeating, but trying to make sure I'm being clear, we intend to pursue that at this time online and not in stores.
With respect to lingerie inventory, the first thing Paul, I want to register and you know this having followed us for a long, long time is that we're working very hard to maintain a lot -- as much flexibility as possible particularly for the fourth quarter and through our focus on reducing lead times and ordering frequently and adjusting regularly.
John Mehas and his team are working the assortment literally almost every week in terms of adjusting the on-order. We are making important investments in the new parts of the assortment. And with that said, we've got a lot of flexibility, in particular for the fourth quarter to read and react to the overall trend. And to adjust the on-order obviously to maximize our chase and pursuit of the items that are doing best and to cancel or adjust out of items that aren’t doing as well. So we're making important investments. Again optimistic in terms of the reaction to the new offering certainly in total and we got a lot of flexibility. Was there a third part of Paul’s question?
正如我们之前所传达的那样，我们的重点是在线开展业务，并且通常提供比我们过去提供的更高的分类和消费者对此的反应 - 尽管有一些关于价格点的评论总体而言，我们对客户的反应是积极的。所以这是一个良好的开端，特别是考虑到我们决定的时机。该类别有额外的增长机会。我再说一次，但是为了确保我清楚，我们打算在网上而不是在商店里追求这一点。
关于内衣库存，首先保罗，我想注册，你知道这已经跟着我们很长很长一段时间了，我们正在努力保持很多 - 尽可能多的灵活性，特别是对于第四季度，我们专注于缩短交货时间，经常订购和定期调整。
John Mehas和他的团队几乎每周都会按照调整订单的方式进行分类。我们正在对该品种的新部分进行重要投资。有了这个说法，我们有很大的灵活性，特别是第四季度阅读和反应整体趋势。并且明显地调整按顺序以最大化我们对最佳项目的追逐和追求，并取消或调整不好的项目。所以我们正在进行重要的投资。总的来说，对新产品的反应再次保持乐观，我们获得了很大的灵活性。 Paul的问题是否有第三部分？
Yes, clear. Thanks.
Alright. Thanks, Paul. Next question please?
好的。 谢谢，保罗。 下一个问题好吗？
Your next question is from the line of Alex Walvis with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Alex Walvis与Goldman Sachs的合作。 请继续。
I wanted to pick up on some comments you made in response to a prior question on marketing and you mentioned in the prepared materials that marketing at Victoria's Secret business was down year-over-year. Could you give us a sense of where marketing as a percentage of sales in that business? And then you also talked to some changes planned for the back half of the year. Can you talk a little bit more about what you mean by that? Is it an increase in the level of marketing, is there any change planned to the tone or nature of the marketing message? Thank you.
我想回忆一下您之前就市场营销问题所做的一些评论，并且您在准备好的材料中提到维多利亚的秘密业务营销同比下降。 您能否让我们了解营销占该业务销售额的百分比？ 然后你还谈到了为今年下半年计划的一些变化。 你能谈谈你的意思吗？ 是营销水平的提高，营销信息的基调或性质是否有任何变化？ 谢谢。
You're welcome. As to the numerical questions in rough ground sense, Victoria's marketing as a percent of its sales is about 5% historically and that’s an all-in definition, including GWPs and all forms of marketing. The most important thing I would want to register about marketing and we’ve been pretty consistent in this mindset now for as long as may be 12 months, certainly six to nine months, is that everything is on the table. And what's meant by that is we’re taking a fresh hard look at almost every material aspect of our business. And the reason you're asking about marketing for Victoria is it's an important part of that business. So in terms of the messaging, the imagery, the photography, the words, the pricing promotional aspects of it, the medium of communication, the integration of marketing between stores and digital and social channels, John is getting more and more involved in it. He spent his initial focus on the merchandise because that is the longest lead time item in the business and he has done substantial work in that space and frankly extraordinary amounts of work in terms of change in a short period of time since he joined us. And he is now shifting his time, not to the exclusion of merchandising, that’s a core ongoing responsibility obviously but he is getting more and more involved in marketing.
You’ve read that we’ve had changes in senior leadership in marketing and I expect that there will be meaningful and hopefully a thoughtful change in our marketing approach as we move through fall and into 2020. John will comment further on that, I would expect when we're together in September.
Thanks, Alex. Next question please.
Your next question is from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Mark Altschwager和Baird。 请继续。
I wanted to ask about BBW. Just first, with the 4% store comp, can you give us a sense of how the -- what the traffic footfalls are that you are seeing and what is the back-half outlook for BBW and that’s from a traffic perspective? Then more broadly with the remodel program, I think 840 stores in the new concept are planned year end. Can you give us a sense for what percent of those you would say are in A malls or off-mall locations? And then looking forward given the continued pressure on mall traffic, has the number of BBW stores that would meet an ROI threshold changed much just with respect to the remodel. Just wondering how that refresh program evolves as we look to the second half the fleet? Thanks.
我想问一下BBW。 首先，通过4％的商店补偿，您能否让我们了解一下您所看到的交通流量是多少以及BBW的后半部分前景是什么？从交通的角度来看？ 然后更广泛地使用改造计划，我认为新概念中的840家商店计划年底。 您能否告诉我们您在A商场或场外购物中所占的百分比？ 然后考虑到商场流量的持续压力，期待满足ROI门槛的BBW商店的数量在改造方面发生了很大变化。 只是想知道当我们看到下半部队时，刷新程序是如何演变的？ 谢谢。
Sure, so a number of questions in there, if I didn’t catch them all, Amie will remind me of what I missed. So in terms of the traffic at Bath and Body Works in the second quarter, it was about flat, store level traffic flat year-on-year. And the growth in the business came through transaction increases driven by conversion.
With respect to the refresh program, as we commented on consistently and updated in our script, we’re very pleased with the results of it. The refresh activity has not been limited to A malls, but it’s also happened in other mall tiers. We are seeing strong results in almost every situation whether it’s in A or B mall or a C mall or an outlet center, we’re seeing strong results broad-based, very, very few exceptions to that. And we’ll keep pursuing the program. Obviously as we move down into the fleet, we’ll continue to watch the ROIs. But again they’ve been good so far and we’re very optimistic about continuing to pursue this program over the next several years.
With respect to the ROI on the program and just the unit level economics for Bath & Body Works, frankly they’re just outstanding, they’re very solid. That said, as you can see in our information that we shared externally, the fleet is actively managed. So even at Bath & Body Works we close a few stores every year and we’re also opening stores as well. We’re expanding square footage modestly, I think carefully. But the fleet is in great shape.
And the most important thing about that remodel program is, in addition to the financial profile almost immediately being strong, it really sets the business up very well for the next seven to 10 years with a very current store design that consumers respond well to. So we won’t be in what some retailers can get into which is kind of a deferred CapEx situation. So it’s a very good outcome for the business.
关于该计划的投资回报率以及Bath＆Body Works的单位经济学，坦率地说，他们非常出色，他们非常扎实。也就是说，正如我们在外部共享的信息中所看到的那样，车队得到了积极的管理。因此，即使在Bath＆Body Works，我们每年关闭一些商店，我们也开设商店。我谨慎地扩大平方英尺面积。但舰队状况良好。
Thanks Mark. Did we get everything there?
I think you did. Thanks.
Alright, next question please?
Your next question is from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Lorraine Hutchinson和美国银行。 请继续。
I wanted to follow up on the strategy at PINK to rebalance the good, better, best. Can you just talk a little bit about the go-forward implications on sales and margin that you expect from this strategy?
Sure. We’re just -- we’re trying to add good balance among price tiers as in any business, you’ve got to balance unit, volume, growth and transaction volume, growth with pricing. As Amie came into the business and she will comment on this further, when we’re together in September. She assessed a lot of things as you would expect that she would. And based on that assessment she believed that there was opportunity to drive engagement in terms of transactions and unit volume in lower price points. She’s been careful to not go -- working hard to not to go ditch to ditch on that, but she’s just trying to make sure that she’s got what we would call a balanced assortment pyramid or assortment architecture between good, better and best and felt that the business had gotten a little tilted towards a higher price point. So she’s made adjustment there, including in areas like the bra business where she’s delivering a lot of volume growth, and getting to a margin profile now that’s starting to look very solid. So that's the mindset.
当然。我们只是 - 我们试图在任何业务中增加价格层之间的良好平衡，您必须平衡单位，数量，增长和交易量，通过定价增长。当Amie进入这个行业，当我们九月份在一起时，她会对此进行进一步的评论。她评估了许多你想要的东西。根据该评估，她认为有机会以较低的价格推动交易和单位数量的参与。她一直小心翼翼地不去 - 努力工作，不去沟渠，但她只是想确保她有一个我们称之为平衡的金字塔或各种各样的建筑之间的良好，更好和最好的感觉，并认为业务有点倾向于更高的价格点。所以她在那里进行了调整，包括像胸罩业务这样的领域，她提供了大量的销量增长，并且现在开始看起来非常稳固。这就是心态。
Thanks, Lorraine. Next question please?
Your next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Ike Boruchow与Wells Fargo的合作。 请继续。
Good morning, Amie and Stuart. Two quick ones. On the marketing, I know you can't go into it much now. And hopefully we'll hear more at the Analyst Day. But I guess the quick question is, will there be time to change the marketing message in a meaningful way ahead of holiday, meaning should there be some benefits or potential impacts on your Q4 performance at VS from changing the marketing strategy? And then, on the international business, it sounds like based on the commentary that the operating losses in China are getting a little bit better, can you kind of give us an update on where we stand from an operating income or loss perspective in China and what the thought process is into next year and beyond in terms of when that business can potentially turn -- return to profit?
早上好，Amie和Stuart。 两个快速的。 在营销方面，我知道你现在不能深入研究它。 希望我们能在分析师日听到更多。 但我想快速的问题是，是否有时间在假期之前以有意义的方式改变营销信息，这意味着在改变营销策略时，你的Q4表现会有一些好处或潜在影响吗？ 然后，就国际业务而言，听起来基于评论中国的经营亏损有所改善，您能不能向我们介绍一下我们在中国经营收入或损失方面的立场和 明年和以后的思维过程在业务何时可能转变 - 回归利润方面？
Yes. So, Ike on the first question, with respect to, is there the opportunity to make meaningful change in the marketing approach and message for the fourth quarter, I believe that there is. John is engaged in it. The -- while marketing is complex and needs to be migrated in a careful way, the inherent lead times as I commented on earlier, not nearly as long as, will be the case to design and develop and have manufactured new product into the assortment. So simple answer to question, is there an opportunity to make meaningful change in our marketing message and approach for the fourth quarter? The answer is yes.
With respect to China, it's a multi-year situation. We do have some flagship stores there that play an important role in marketing the business. But they are generating some losses. And our view at this point would be, it's a three or four year journey in China to get to the near to a profit profile in that business, three or four year journey.
是。 因此，关于第一个问题，Ike是否有机会对第四季度的营销方法和信息进行有意义的改变，我相信有。 约翰参与其中。 - 虽然市场营销很复杂，需要谨慎地进行迁移，但我在前面评论过的固有交付时间，并不是那么长，将是设计和开发并将新产品制造到产品组合中的情况。 如此简单的回答问题，是否有机会在第四季度对我们的营销信息和方法进行有意义的改变？ 答案是肯定的。
就中国而言，这是多年的情况。 我们在那里有一些旗舰店，在营销业务中发挥着重要作用。 但他们正在产生一些损失。 我们现在的观点是，在中国进行三到四年的旅程，可以获得近三年或四年的营业利润。
Thanks, Ike. Next question please?
Your next question is from Susan Anderson with B. Riley FBR. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Susan Anderson和B. Riley FBR。 请继续。
I was wondering, if you could maybe give us an update -- from what you're doing on a digital perspective, it looks like online continues to outperform stores. So maybe if you could provide some color on what you're doing from a technology perspective to continue to drive that online business and improve the omni-channel aspect for VS and PINK mainly?
我想知道，如果你能给我们一个更新 - 从你在数字方面所做的事情，看起来在线继续优于商店。 那么也许你可以从技术角度为你正在做的事情提供一些颜色，继续推动在线业务，并主要改善VS和PINK的全渠道方面？
Yes. Thanks, Susan. So I think as you would know, but it's important just to reiterate, the most important thing we've done in the digital business is a project that we went live with, in the last few months, which was a replatforming, a full replatforming of victoriassecret.com. It had been running on systems and hardware that were more than 25 years old. And it served that legacy system, homegrown system, by the way it served the business very, very well for a long time. But it was time to upgrade that platform, which is a big deal, obviously, in terms of getting that right and doing it well. And again, the business -- the domestic business has been running on that new platform now for a couple of months. So that's the most important thing. It will enable us to pursue a number of customer-facing benefits that we're now moving forward to. And those would be things like buy online pick up in store.
Another foundational element that we're working on now before we roll with buy online pick up in store and other similar things is we want to make sure that we have appropriate accuracy in our inventory. And obviously, we have that for financial statement purposes, but I'm talking about at the item level at a specific location on a particular day. And with a very broad assortment with so many choices in the broad business, particularly at Victoria’s, that inventory accuracy is critical, which is why we're in 2019 pursuing an RFID initiative and rolling out an RFID initiative for Victoria’s Secret. So with the foundation of the new domestic -- what we call a domestic order management system and accurate inventories that are sufficient to make reasonable promises to customers, we will be able to do a lot of things that many other retailers can do today.
One of the other things that the new system allows us to do is to have a broader distribution network for Victoria's in the United States, which will allow us to add capacity and have more flexibility with capacity. So that's another benefit that we're getting now. So that's the biggest thing -- that those are the biggest things I should say that we've been working on. Bath & Body as you know, it wasn't implicit in your question, has a terrific online business in addition to Victoria’s growing at a very healthy rate. And they are regularly looking at ways to upgrade the customer experience in that part of the business as well.
是。谢谢，苏珊。所以我想如你所知，但重要的是重申一下，我们在数字业务中所做的最重要的事情是我们在过去几个月里开始实施的一个项目，这是一次重新变换，一次完整的重新构建victoriassecret.com。它一直在超过25年的系统和硬件上运行。它服务于传统系统，本土系统，通过它长期服务业务的方式非常好。但现在是升级该平台的时候了，这显然是在做到这一点并做得很好的方面。而且，业务 - 国内业务现在已经在这个新平台上运行了几个月。所以这是最重要的事情。它将使我们能够追求我们现在正在向前迈进的一系列面向客户的利益。那些就像在网上购买的东西一样。
我们现在正在开展的另一个基本要素是，我们在商店和其他类似的东西上购买在线购买是我们希望确保我们的库存具有适当的准确性。显然，出于财务报表的目的，我们有这个，但我在特定日期的某个特定地点的项目级别进行讨论。由于在广泛的业务中有很多选择，特别是在维多利亚州，因此库存准确性至关重要，这就是为什么我们在2019年寻求RFID计划并为维多利亚的秘密推出RFID计划。因此，基于新的国内 - 我们称之为国内订单管理系统和准确的库存，足以向客户作出合理的承诺，我们将能够做很多其他零售商今天可以做的事情。
新系统允许我们做的其他事情之一是为美国维多利亚州提供更广泛的分销网络，这将使我们能够增加容量并在容量方面拥有更大的灵活性。这是我们现在获得的另一个好处。所以这是最重要的事情 - 那些是我应该说的最重要的事情，我们一直在努力。如你所知，Bath＆Body，你的问题并不含蓄，除了维多利亚以非常健康的速度增长之外，还有一个了不起的在线业务。他们还经常寻找提升该部分业务客户体验的方法。
Thanks, Susan. Next question please?
Next question is from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
接下来的问题来自William Reuter与美国银行的合作。 请继续。
I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the List 4 tariffs at 10%. I think most of your products were included on List 4 A, but what the impacts of this would be on dollar basis for 2019 or how we should think about it on an annual basis going forward?
我想知道你是否可以谈一下关于List 4关税10％的一点点。 我认为你的大部分产品都包含在清单4 A中，但是这对2019年的美元基础会产生什么影响，或者我们今后应该如何考虑它？
Yes. So the List 4 effect is included in our guidance. We’ve considered it in our guidance. We are working to offset some of that impact through various migration of productions at different countries and discussions with our supplier partners. We haven't given out a number. But again, it's included in our guidance. Importantly, its materiality -- this situation’s materiality to our company is not as great as many other retailers. The United States is our number one country of production given the importance of personal care and beauty in our business. And in terms of our total sourcing activity, China represents less than 20% of our total sourcing activity and has moved down almost 10 percentage points over the last three or four years based on very deliberate efforts by the sourcing production teams in our business to make sure that we have a -- continue to have a well diversified base of supplies. So we've got it covered in the guidance. And again, importantly not as material to us as it is to many other retailers. Thanks.
是。因此，List 4效果包含在我们的指南中。我们已经在我们的指导中考虑过了。我们正努力通过不同国家的各种产品迁移以及与供应商合作伙伴的讨论来抵消部分影响。我们还没有发出一个数字。但同样，它也包含在我们的指导中。重要的是，它的实质性 - 这种情况对我们公司的重要性并不像许多其他零售商那么大。鉴于个人护理和美容在我们的业务中的重要性，美国是我们的头号生产国。就我们的采购活动总量而言，中国占我们采购活动总量的比例不到20％，并且在过去三四年中，由于采购生产团队在我们的业务中做出了非常慎重的努力，中国已经下降了近10个百分点确定我们有一个 - 继续拥有一个多元化的供应基地。所以我们已经在指南中介绍了它。而且，重要的是，对我们而言，这并不像许多其他零售商那样重要。谢谢。
Thanks, Bill. Next question please?
Your next question is from Roxanne Meyer with MKM Partners.
您的下一个问题来自Roxanne Meyer和MKM Partners。
I’ve questions on BBW. It’s been a healthy and consistent source of comp and operating income growth for you. I’m just wondering from a rate perspective how you think about BBW over the next few years, as you think about the various puts and takes to the business whether it’s the impact of supply chain and sourcing costs, a shift to direct, which is growing at a very healthy rate but then on the flipside the benefits from scale and expense leverage that you may be getting?
我对BBW有疑问。 对您而言，这是一个健康和一致的补偿和营业收入增长来源。 我只是从费率的角度想知道你对未来几年BBW的看法，因为你会考虑各种看跌和对业务的影响，无论是供应链和采购成本的影响，转向直接，这是 以非常健康的速度增长，但另一方面，您可能会获得规模和费用杠杆带来的好处？
Yes. So I understand the importance of your question. But as you would imagine the first thing that that we’re focused on is dollar growth. As we say around here, you take dollars to the bank, you don’t take percentages to the bank. With that said, your question is a serious question and Bath & Body has demonstrated over a very long period of time to its ability to effectively balance dollar growth in long-term health of the business with profit rate. All that said, do I see that there is a little bit of downside risk, a little bit of downside risk to the business or downside pressure to the business due to the factors that you mentioned? There is some. But again we believe that the growth potential in that business remains very high, and its ability to deliver very healthy growth in profit dollars, EBIT or operating income dollars, we’re very confident in its ability to do that, given the categories that’s in, the very strong and capable leadership team that runs that business, the assets that it has including very strong store design compelling merchandise assortments, short lead times, highly capable, highly enthused, dedicated, loyal selling force in stores, a very strong online business, just a lot of assets that, that business has. So is there a little bit of downside on the rate? Yes. Is there lots of opportunity on dollar growth? Absolutely. And I think the business has well demonstrated that or demonstrated that well for a long period of time. Thanks.
Thanks, Roxanne. Next question, please?
Your next question is from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自Dana Telsey和Telsey Advisory Group。 请继续。
As you think about Victoria's Secret Beauty, any more color in terms of what you're seeing there, what happened with the July launch, and what you're seeing in the emerging businesses at PINK beauty? And then on the breakdown of CapEx, I believe the store investments is going to 55% of CapEx from 75%. How do you see that moving forward in the business? And is technology investment or direct investment making up what's being removed from store investment? Thank you.
当你想到维多利亚的秘密之美时，你所看到的更多颜色，七月发布时会发生什么，以及你在PINK美女的新兴业务中看到了什么？ 然后就资本支出的细分而言，我认为商店投资将从75％升至资本支出的55％。 您如何看待业务的发展？ 技术投资或直接投资是否构成了从商店投资中消除的东西？ 谢谢。
Thanks, Dana. So Victoria's Secret Beauty remains a very good business. As you know, Dana, they're in the fine fragrance business, as we would refer to it, and then they got a significant fragrance mist business. Over the last year, year and a half, as a general point they've had very strong results in the mist business. And just -- I'm again speaking about the last year, year and a half and okay results in the fine fragrance business. As we -- with that said, as we look at very recent results and they just had their most successful what they would call, sister launch in fine fragrance over the last few weeks. So, Greg and his team recognized the opportunity in the fine fragrance business as you followed us a long time. As you know, we've got three or four of the top 20 fine fragrances literally in the industry, which is a terrific place to be.
In addition to continued work on the assortment itself, Greg is very focused and team very focused on improving the selling within our stores. And so, we've got a number of things going on that we think will move the business in a favorable way and should represent a lot of upside in what is already a very sound business.
With respect to the CapEx, you recognized that in the formation of your question, we have pulled back on CapEx for store-related CapEx, real estate-related CapEx for Victoria's Secret and international. And as was mentioned in earlier question, we continue to invest in technology, particularly pointed towards the online or digital part of our business and we are also investing some in distribution and fulfillment assets as well. And so that's tilting the mix a bit from what it had typically been, again representing some pullback in store-related driven by Victoria's and international just based on current trend, results, performance. But we're trying to maintain, if not increase our investment in the online digital part of our business and again some work in distribution logistics as well. Thanks.
谢谢，达娜。所以Victoria's Secret Beauty仍然是一个非常好的生意。如你所知，Dana，他们在精美的香水业务，正如我们所说，然后他们有一个重要的香水雾业务。在过去的一年半中，作为一般观点，他们在雾业中取得了非常强劲的成绩。只是 - 我再次谈到去年，一年半，好的结果是精美的香水业务。正如我们所说的那样，当我们看到最近的结果并且他们只是最成功的时候，姐姐们在过去的几周内推出了精美的香水。所以，Greg和他的团队在很长一段时间跟踪我们的时候就认识到精美香水业务的机会。如您所知，我们在行业中拥有前20种精美香水中的三种或四种，这是一个非常棒的地方。
Thanks, Dana. Next question, please.
Your next question comes from Kate Fitzsimons with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自KBC Fitzsimons和RBC Capital Markets。 请继续。
My question is on sourcing. Just with more volatility in the wake of the trade tensions, and it sounds like you're making some changes on the supplier side. Can you speak to how your ability to chase product on the PINK and VS side is evolving into the back half? Is this furthering your need for air freight or just how should we think about the flexibility there? Also just looking ahead to the fourth quarter, can you just speak to your open to buy for holiday? Thank you.
我的问题是采购。 随着贸易紧张局势的波动越来越大，听起来你在供应方面做了一些改变。 你能谈谈你在PINK和VS方面追逐产品的能力如何演变成后半部分吗？ 这是否会增加您对空运的需求，或者我们应该如何考虑其灵活性？ 同样只是展望第四季度，你能和你的公开场合购买假期吗？ 谢谢。
Sure. So the last part of that question we're essentially almost fully open for the fourth quarter, in terms of open to buy. So take that part of it, first. And then with respect to speed and agility in the supply chain, it's been -- it's a legacy part of our business in a positive way. It's something that less focused on, as long ago as the late '70s and early '80s. And we renewed our work in that area, beginning now seven years or eight years ago, both on the apparel -- the intimate apparel side of the business and in the personal care and beauty side of the business. So it's something we have renewed our capabilities in and today we would judge our capabilities in that area in terms of speed and agility in our supply chain as among the best in retailing based on what we know.
With respect to the use of airfreight frankly, substantially everything that we have produced outside the United States is on an airplane, other than some gift and accessory business and it's because the value in our judgment of speed and agility to question you're asking about the economic value of that far outstrips the incremental cost of moving stuff on a boat, and as we like to say around here you can't sell it, if it's on a boat by the way. So our agility is good and our standard model if you will, with respect to things that are produced outside of the United States is in fact to move the buyer. So the speed part of the businesses is a fundamental as we see it and we're in good shape.
当然。所以这个问题的最后一部分在开放购买方面基本上几乎完全开放了第四季度。首先，请参考其中的一部分。然后就供应链中的速度和敏捷性而言，它是 - 它以积极的方式成为我们业务的遗留部分。早在70年代末和80年代初期，它就不那么专注了。我们在这个领域重新开始了我们的工作，从七年或八年前开始，这两个领域都涉及服装 - 商业的私密服装方面以及个人护理和美容方面。因此，我们已经更新了我们的能力，今天我们将在供应链中的速度和灵活性方面判断我们在该领域的能力，这是我们所知道的零售业中最好的。
Thanks, Kate. Next question please?
Your next question is from Omar Saad with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
您的下一个问题来自Omar Saad和Evercore ISI。 请继续。
Thanks for taking my question. Stuart, I wanted to ask you about the more targeted promos at VS this fall holiday. I feel like you guys maybe did some of that a couple of years ago with mixed results, maybe talk about the strategy there. And is it important to kind of getting to that point we have less promos in the back half, but stronger comps, is the targeted promos a key part of that? And then did you mention the trends through the quarter, I don't know, if there was a big difference between the months and the VS comp? Thanks.
谢谢你提出我的问题。 斯图尔特，我想问你这个秋季假期VS更有针对性的宣传片。 我觉得你们可能在几年前做过一些结果喜忧参半的事情，也许会谈到那里的策略。 并且重要的是要达到这一点，我们在后半部分的促销较少，但是更强的补偿，目标促销是其中的关键部分吗？ 然后你提到了整个季度的趋势，我不知道，如果几个月和VS comp之间有很大差异？ 谢谢。
Yes. So in terms of the targeted versus broad-based promos, Omar, we continued to pursue the right balance between those two things. And the considerations in that is, if you have a very broad-based promo, then you're essentially discounting the whole assortment, if you will, if it's very broad-based. I'm exaggerating a little bit to make a point. Whereas if you have targeted promos, obviously you're not discounting large portions of the entire assortment and you can get more full price selling on the particularly strong choices within the assortment. And the balance point, which you recognized in the question is, that it tends to be that the broader-based promotions drive more consumer response and more traffic in an overall sense. So we're trying to strike that balance. The variable that is different from a year or two ago, and this is what makes the business interesting and fun, particularly when you largely figure it out, is that the assortment is different. So you could look at our promotional strategy in isolation and say, hey, didn't they try this a few years ago, and it didn't work. So like, what are they thinking, right? I am again trying to make a point. But the dynamic has to include in evaluation of the strength of the assortment. It all starts with that.
And with the work that Amie and John have been doing, we're optimistic that we can get reasonable result without having to do a substantial number of broad-based promotions. All that said, we've got a lot of flexibility there. And we will continue to test and learn and make trade-offs and we'll be reevaluating the promotional strategy as we move through the fall season, to get to the, the right customer response, get the right traffic, get the right margin dollars to work hard to deliver the results that are embedded in the forecast.
The second part of the question was about trends within the month. So June was the strongest of the months, as I recall, and July was the weakest of the months, Omar, in the quarter, second quarter.
For Victoria's. Yes.
Thanks. So I think we have time for a couple more questions. Next question, please.
谢谢。 所以我认为我们有时间再问几个问题。 请问下一个问题。
Your next question is from the line of Jamie Merriman with Bernstein. Please go ahead.
你的下一个问题来自Jamie Merriman和伯恩斯坦。 请继续。
Thanks very much. You talked earlier about the rebalancing of the price points that Amie is doing within PINK. And I was wondering, if there is any similar plans for Victoria's Secret Lingerie, as John looked at the assortment there? And then second one is just as you've sort of put everything on the table, are there any cost opportunities that you've identified that could help drive an improvement in profitability apart from the assortment and revenue initiatives that you're pursuing? Thanks.
非常感谢。 您之前谈过Amie在PINK中所做的价格点重新平衡。 而且我想知道，如果有任何类似的维多利亚秘密内衣的计划，约翰看着那里的分类？ 然后第二个就是你把所有东西放在桌面上，除了你正在追求的分类和收入计划之外，你是否已经确定了哪些成本机会可以帮助提高盈利能力？ 谢谢。
Yes. So with respect to an evaluation of good, better, best pricing and opportunities in the lingerie part of Victoria's, it's one of the most fundamental things that any merchant leader and any retail leadership team would evaluate. And so John has made that assessment for Victoria's Secret Lingerie and the number of offerings at the better and best price points for Victoria's Secret Lingerie is up meaningfully versus what it had been. And that's based on, if you've seen the merchandise online or in stores, you would see more sophisticated merchandise -- merchandise was a lot more we believe emotional content and as we talked about at the start of the call, initial response from consumers to those new offerings has been good.
The other aspect of what John and Amie have done is to have a clear demarcation between the Victoria's Secret Lingerie and PINK businesses. Again PINK is targeted toward a college-aged customer. And Lingerie more typically -- somebody that would be post-college and at higher price points and with a greater degree of sophistication. So that's another aspect of the good, better, best pricing work that both leaders have done to properly segment and position the respective businesses.
是。因此，对于维多利亚内衣部分的优质，更好，最优价格和机会的评估，这是任何商业领袖和任何零售领导团队评估的最基本的事情之一。所以约翰已经对维多利亚的秘密内衣进行了评估，维多利亚秘密内衣的更好和最优惠价格的产品数量与以往相比有了明显的提升。这是基于，如果你在网上或商店看到商品，你会看到更复杂的商品 - 商品更多我们相信情感内容，正如我们在电话会议开始时谈到的那样，消费者的初步回应那些新产品一直很好。
John和Amie所做的另一个方面是在Victoria's Secret Lingerie和PINK业务之间划清界限。 PINK再次面向大学年龄的客户。更常见的是内衣 - 有人会在大学毕业后以更高的价格和更高的复杂程度。因此，这是两个领导者为正确分割和定位各自业务所做的良好，更好，最佳定价工作的另一个方面。
There are always in a big business like ours cost opportunities. With that said, they come with trade-offs, and the company has worked hard to be efficient over its long history and including at our -- in our record results for 2015, when we had an overall company 18% operating income rate, that, that one of the contributors to that was the highly efficient business. With that said, we've had a lot of sales pressure and margin rate pressure in the business. We have taken, what I'd call targeted actions to reduce expenses in connection with a lot of the change at Victoria's Secret. In 2016 and 2017, we have -- we took substantial home office cost reductions. And in more recent periods over the last year to 18 months, we've taken a lot of expense out of the business in terms of variable expenses and selling certain selling areas and in marketing as examples. But there is always more that you can do, but it comes with trade-offs. And you've got to be thoughtful about not getting into an ongoing cost cutting exercise that can hurt the near-term and longer-term prospects for the business. So we're trying to strike the right balance. And we'll continue to monitor that as time progresses. If retail selling trends don't improve, margin trends don't improve at Victoria's Secret, you would expect us to take another hard fundamental look at expenses and what we're focused on to the greatest extent right now is getting the results at retail in terms of sales and margin. But there are other things that we could look at, but they again come with trade-offs. Thanks.
像我们这样的大企业总有成本机会。话虽如此，他们还是有权衡，公司在其悠久的历史中努力提高效率，包括我们 - 在2015年的记录结果中，当时我们的整体公司的营业收入率为18％， ，其中一个贡献者是高效的业务。话虽如此，我们在业务中面临很大的销售压力和利润率压力。我们已经采取了，我称之为有针对性的行动，以减少与维多利亚秘密的大量变化有关的费用。在2016年和2017年，我们已经 - 我们减少了大量的家庭办公室成本。在最近一年到18个月的最近一段时间里，我们从可变费用和销售某些销售区域以及营销方面的业务中抽出了大量费用。但总有更多你可以做的，但它需要权衡利弊。而且你必须要考虑不进行持续的成本削减活动，这可能会损害企业的近期和长期前景。所以我们试图取得适当的平衡。随着时间的推移，我们将继续监控这一点。如果零售销售趋势没有改善，保证金秘密的保证金趋势没有改善，你会期望我们对费用采取另一种硬性基本看法，我们现在最关注的是在零售业取得成果在销售和保证金方面。但是还有其他一些我们可以看到的东西，但它们再次得到了权衡。谢谢。
Thanks, Jamie. Heidi, I think this will be our last question.
Okay. Your final question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
好的。 你的最后一个问题来自Michael Binetti与瑞士信贷的合作。 请继续。
Stuart, could you, I guess, two questions quickly. Could you -- I know you've talked about the outlook for promotions and how you're working on the mix of targeted versus more broad-based. Could you tell us how you thought about the expectation for the promotional environment outside of your business as we head into the fourth quarter? I'm trying to reconcile the guidance for inventories to be up in the mid-teens with the comp items that you baked in for fourth quarter and, I guess merch margins planned to be down a little bit, but since I know a lot of the year, a lot of the annual earnings happens in the fourth quarter. I'm trying to think about how much room you might have left yourself given what we've heard so far in second quarter is a fairly volatile outlook for the rest of the year as far as where the peer group thinks promotional levels would be for the holiday?
斯图尔特，我猜，你能快速提出两个问题。 你能否 - 我知道你已经谈到了促销活动的前景以及你是如何在有针对性的和更广泛的基础上进行合作的。 在我们进入第四季度时，您能否告诉我们您对业务以外的促销环境的期望？ 我正在努力调整青少年中期库存的指导与你在第四季度出炉的补偿项目，并且我认为商品利润率计划有所下降，但是因为我知道了很多 这一年，很多年度收益发生在第四季度。 考虑到我们在第二季度到目前为止所听到的情况，我认为你可能留下多少空间，对于今年剩余时间来说，只要同行团体认为促销水平为 假期？
Yes. So a couple of thoughts in reaction to your question, in response to your question. The first is in the lingerie part of Victoria's particularly the -- what we would call the initial markup or the inherent markup in the goods is substantially greater than what it had been. And so that provides the opportunity for higher margin rate results and more flexibility or room if needed to promote the business. Again, that's not our going-in plan, but as we talked about, we needed to balance volume with rate. And again the point I'm trying to register is there is higher markup in the goods in terms of their initial retails and their costs. So that gives us more flexibility than we've had over the last few years.
With respect to the promotional environment, there are others in the industry and in our company that have been doing this longer than I have, and I've been doing it for a while. And going into every holiday there's commentary about how it's going to be more promotional than ever. I'm aware that we're in our 10th year of an economic recovery and there is greater discussion understandably about the potential for a recession. But the truth is, absent a dramatic change in the environment like we saw in '08 and '09, we sell relatively affordable things. They are discretionary but they're relatively affordable. And I would say, as a close-to-home data point, we look at Bath & Body's results and what folks might say as a promotional retail environment and they're very strong results. And again what those come from is a compelling brand position, a compelling merchandise assortment, well executed in the most complete sense. And we think that Victoria's has that opportunity. So there is nothing about the promotional environment per se that I would say is uniquely different versus most typical years and it's really in our hands to deliver compelling assortments, again, well delivered in stores and online to get to a good result and we have higher inherent markup to work with. Thanks.
是。因此，在回答您的问题时，请回答您的问题。第一个是在维多利亚的内衣部分，特别是 - 我们称之为初始标记或货物中的固有标记远远大于以往。因此，如果需要促进业务，这将提供更高利润率结果的机会和更大的灵活性或空间。同样，这不是我们的计划，但正如我们所谈到的，我们需要平衡数量和利率。而我想要注册的一点是，货物的初始零售价格和成本都有较高的加价。因此，这给了我们比过去几年更多的灵活性。
Can I ask one follow-up on PINK, if it …
Go ahead, Michael.
Okay. Thanks. I know you're up on time. But on PINK, Stuart, it seems -- you seem to think some of the issues at the comp there were excluding swim, I guess, were isolated to single-category product issues. And I think there has been some variability on some of the product categories quarter-to-quarter as I look back over the last year. With the knowledge you have of where Vicky's has been over the last few years and looking at PINK, how do you isolate that this is contained to single products that we can always try to get right next season versus any metrics that you look at to gauge the longer-term health of the brand, whether there could be a longer-term issue that let you feel like, “This is okay. This really is just category-to-category issue. We’ll fix it up and we're not seeing issues with the brand that should cause a little bit more urgency here?”
好的。 谢谢。 我知道你准时到了。 但是在PINK上，斯图尔特，似乎 - 你似乎认为在那里排除游泳的一些问题，我猜，被孤立到单一类别的产品问题。 我认为，在回顾过去的一年中，某些产品类别的季度与季度存在一些差异。 根据Vicky过去几年所处的知识以及PINK的知识，您如何将其包含在单个产品中，这些产品我们总能在下个季节尝试获得，而不是您所关注的任何指标 这个品牌的长期健康状况，是否会有一个长期问题让你觉得，“这没关系。 这实际上只是类别到类别的问题。 我们会解决这个问题，而且我们没有看到该品牌的问题会导致这里的紧迫性增加吗？“
Well, it's hard for me to not react to clearly on the last part of your question. The urgency -- there couldn't be greater urgency on management. So if you don't feel urgency, then we're not communicating well. Okay. So we're about as urgent as we …
好吧，我很难在你问题的最后部分没有做出明确的反应。 紧迫性 - 管理层没有更大的紧迫性。 所以，如果你感觉不紧急，那么我们就不能很好地沟通。 好的。 所以我们和我们一样迫切......
I shouldn't have said urgency maybe ….
Yes. We're about as urgent as we could be. And what the merchant leaders are focused on, John and Amie, is improving the merchandise offerings, and then, again executing those well in terms of all the aspects of delivering that well to consumers in stores and online. We're aware of the time frame under which the Victoria's segment has had year-on-year declines in sales, it started in 2016. So this has been a multi-year situation.
With that said, we think that the assets that the business has in terms of brand awareness, brand regard, footfall in stores, visits online, sourcing and logistics capabilities strong management certainly on an overall basis that there is a lot of assets that this business has that went well lead and executed, we believe we're going to make substantial progress this fall and that there's a lot of opportunity for this business over the next several years. So -- and we're pursuing all that, trust me with a lot of urgency. Thanks.
是。 我们和我们一样紧急。 而商人领导者所关注的是John和Amie正在改进商品供应，然后再次在商店和网上为消费者提供良好服务的所有方面执行这些产品。 我们知道维多利亚分部的销售额同比下降的时间范围，始于2016年。所以这是一个多年的情况。
话虽如此，我们认为企业在品牌知名度，品牌关注度，店铺客流量，在线访问量，采购和物流能力方面的资产肯定在整体基础上有很多资产可用于此业务 我们相信我们将在今年秋季取得实质性进展，而且未来几年这项业务将有很多机会。 所以 - 我们正在追求这一切，非常紧迫地信任我。 谢谢。
Thanks, everyone. And that concludes our call today. Thank you for your continuing interest in L Brands.
感谢大家。 今天我们的电话结束了。 感谢您对L Brands的持续关注。
And this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
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