蒙特利尔银行 (BMO) 首席执行官达里尔怀特在 2019年 第三季度业绩 - 收益电话会议记录

Bank of Montreal (NYSE:BMO) Q3 2019 Earnings Conference Call August 27, 2019 7:15 AM ET

蒙特利尔银行(纽约证券交易所代码:[BMO])2019年第3季度收益电话会议2019年8月27日美国东部时间上午7:15

公司参与者

Jill Homenuk - IR
Darryl White - CEO
Tom Flynn - CFO
Pat Cronin - Chief Risk Officer
Cam Fowler - President, North American Personal and Business Banking
Dave Casper - CEO, BMO Financial Group US
Joanna Rotenberg - Group Head, BMO Wealth Management

  • Jill Homenuk - IR
  • 达里尔怀特 - 首席执行官
  • Tom Flynn - 首席财务官
  • Pat Cronin - 首席风险官
  • Cam Fowler - 北美个人和商业银行总裁
  • Dave Casper - 美国BMO金融集团首席执行官
  • Joanna Rotenberg - BMO财富管理集团主管

电话会议参与者

Meny Grauman - Cormark Securities
Gabriel Dechaine - National Bank Financial
John Aiken - Barclays
Doug Young - Desjardins
Sumit Malhotra - Scotia Capital
Robert Sedran - CIBC Capital Markets
Mario Mendonca - TD Securities
Scott Chan - Canaccord Genuity
Darko Mihelic - RBC Capital Markets

  • Meny Grauman - Cormark证券
  • Gabriel Dechaine - 国家银行财务
  • 约翰艾肯 - 巴克莱
  • Doug Young - Desjardins
  • Sumit Malhotra - Scotia Capital
  • Robert Sedran - CIBC资本市场
  • Mario Mendonca - 道明证券
  • Scott Chan - Canaccord Genuity
  • Darko Mihelic - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场

会议主持员

Good morning and welcome to the BMO Financial Group's Q3 2019 Earnings Release and Conference Call for August 27, 2019.
Your host for today is Ms. Jill Homenuk, Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Homenuk, please go ahead.

早上好,欢迎参加BMO金融集团2019年第三季度的收益发布会和2019年8月27日的电话会议。

今天的主持人是投资者关系主管Jill Homenuk女士。 Homenuk女士,请继续。...

Jill Homenuk

Jill Homenuk

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. Our agenda for today's investor presentation is as follows. We will begin the call with remarks from Darryl White, BMO's CEO, followed by presentations from Tom Flynn, the Bank's Chief Financial Officer; and Pat Cronin, our Chief Risk Officer. We have with us today Cam Fowler from Canadian P&C and Dave Casper from U.S. P&C. Dan Barclay is here for BMO Capital Markets and Joanna Rotenberg is here for BMO Wealth Management.
After their presentations, we will have a question-and-answer period where we will take questions from prequalified analysts. To give everyone an opportunity to participate, please keep it to one question. Darryl will then close the call with concluding remarks.
On behalf of those speaking today, I note that forward-looking statements may be made during this call. Actual results could differ materially from forecasts, projections or conclusions in these statements.
I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results to assess and measure performance by business and the overall bank. Management assesses performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. Darryl and Tom will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks, unless otherwise noted as reported. Additional information on adjusting items, the bank's reported results and factors and assumptions related to forward-looking information can be found in our 2018 Annual Report and our third quarter 2019 report to shareholders.
With that said, I will hand things over to Darryl.

谢谢。大家早上好,感谢今天加入我们。我们今天投资者介绍的议程如下。我们将以BMO首席执行官达里尔怀特的言论开始这一呼吁,接着是银行首席财务官汤姆弗林的演讲。和我们的首席风险官Pat Cronin。我们今天和我们一起来自加拿大P&C的Cam Fowler和来自美国P&C的Dave Casper。 Dan Barclay来到BMO资本市场,Joanna Rotenberg来到BMO财富管理。

演讲结束后,我们将有一个问答环节,我们将向资格预审分析师提问。为了让每个人都有机会参与,请将其保留为一个问题。然后,达里尔将以结束语结束通话。

我代表今天发言的人,注意到在本次电话会议期间可能会做出前瞻性陈述。实际结果可能与这些陈述中的预测,预测或结论存在重大差异。

我还要提醒听众,银行使用非GAAP财务指标来达到调整后的结果,以评估和衡量业务和整个银行的业绩。管理层根据报告和调整后的基准评估业绩,并认为两者都有助于评估基础业务绩效。除非另有说明,否则Darryl和Tom将在其评论中提及调整后的结果。有关调整项目,银行报告结果以及与前瞻性信息相关的因素和假设的其他信息,请参阅我们的2018年度报告和2019年第三季度向股东提交的报告。

话虽如此,我会把事情交给达里尔。

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Thank you, Jill and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us this morning. Today, we announced earnings for the third quarter of $1.6 billion and earnings per share of $2.38. We delivered another quarter of strong operating performance that reflects the diversification and resilience of our businesses. Our core North American personal and commercial banking businesses continue to have strong momentum with pre-provision pre-tax earnings up 9% from last year and good operating leverage. In both Canada and the US, we're growing loans and deposits at above market rate and expanding our customer base. Balance growth is well diversified and driving good revenue performance.
Capital Markets continues to perform well with record investment in corporate banking revenue this quarter and strong momentum in our US business. Wealth results were impacted by lower insurance revenue. In Q4 of last year, we said we were reviewing ways to lower variability in our reinsurance business. In light of the environment and the reinsurance sector, performance is no longer meeting our risk return expectations and so we've made the strategic decision to exit the majority of this business.
We absorbed an increase in provisions for credit losses this quarter, as we continue to prudently build allowances for performing loans. At the same time, as Pat will explain, overall credit quality in our portfolio remains strong. As we guided last quarter, expense growth moderated this quarter, and we expect that to continue in Q4. Improving the bank's efficiency is a top priority. This quarter, the ratio improved to below 60%, driven by steady improvement in personal and commercial banking, and we are doing more to build on that momentum.
On a year to date basis, earnings per share were up 5% or 7%, excluding the impact of the severance charge in capital markets last quarter. Our capital position remained strong, with our CET1 ratio increasing to 11.4%, supporting strong organic growth.
Turning to slide 5, our US platform which is now contributing over a third of the bank's earnings continues to deliver strong results with good growth in each of our businesses. Year-to-date, US earnings were up 24% and efficiency is improving at an accelerated rate. We're growing our Midwest footprint, where we recently took over the number one position as the largest bank in Chicago by assets, a testament to the strength of our teams and differentiating BMO in a highly competitive market.
At the same time, we continue to accelerate organic growth outside our core footprint. For example, we recently expanded our presence in Texas, opening a new commercial office in Fort Worth. We have a long and successful history serving customers in the second largest US state, including our capital markets office in Houston, and our transportation finance team in Irving. We've also added wealth management capabilities to our rapidly growing Dallas office.
In personal and business banking, we're attracting new customers through our competitive digital capabilities. Just six months after launching our new mobile banking service, customers can open an account in minutes. And we've already gained market leading ranking for our mobile app in the United States, in line with the largest US banks and our leading Canadian app. We’re reaching customers across the country, having now opened accounts in all 50 states with two-thirds of new balances coming from outside of our branch footprint.

谢谢你,吉尔,大家早上好。感谢您今天早上加入我们。今天,我们宣布第三季度的收益为16亿美元,每股收益为2.38美元。我们提供了另外四分之一的强劲经营业绩,反映了我们业务的多元化和弹性。我们的核心北美个人和商业银行业务继续保持强劲势头,预先提供的税前收益比去年增加9%,并具有良好的经营杠杆。在加拿大和美国,我们以高于市场的速度增加贷款和存款,并扩大我们的客户群。平衡增长是多元化的,并带来良好的收入表现。

本季度资本市场继续表现良好,本季度公司银行业务收入创历史新高,美国业务增长强劲。财富业绩受到保险收入减少的影响。在去年的第四季度,我们说我们正在审查降低再保险业务可变性的方法。鉴于环境和再保险行业,业绩不再符合我们的风险回报预期,因此我们做出了退出大部分业务的战略决策。

我们在本季度吸收了信贷损失准备金的增加,因为我们继续谨慎地建立贷款准备金。与此同时,正如帕特所解释的那样,我们投资组合的整体信贷质量依然强劲。在我们上个季度的指导下,本季度费用增长放缓,我们预计第四季度将继续增长。提高银行效率是首要任务。本季度,由于个人和商业银行业务的稳步改善,该比率提升至60%以下,而且我们正在采取更多措施来巩固这一势头。

在年初至今的基础上,每股收益增长5%或7%,不包括上季度资本市场中遣散费的影响。我们的资本状况依然强劲,我们的CET1比率增加至11.4%,支持强劲的有机增长。

转向幻灯片5,我们的美国平台目前贡献了该银行三分之一以上的收益,继续带来强劲的业绩,并且每个业务都有良好的增长。年初至今,美国的收入增长了24%,效率正在加速提升。我们正在增加中西部的业务,我们最近以资产的形式成为芝加哥最大的银行,这证明了我们团队的实力以及在竞争激烈的市场中区分BMO。

与此同时,我们继续在核心足迹之外加速有机增长。例如,我们最近扩大了在德克萨斯州的业务,在沃斯堡开设了一个新的商业办公室。我们拥有悠久而成功的历史,为美国第二大州的客户提供服务,包括休斯顿的资本市场办事处和欧文的运输金融团队。我们还为快速发展的达拉斯办事处增加了财富管理能力。

在个人和商业银行业务中,我们通过具有竞争力的数字功能吸引新客户。在推出新的移动银行服务仅六个月后,客户可以在几分钟内开立账户。我们已经在美国的移动应用程序中获得了市场领先的排名,与美国最大的银行和我们领先的加拿大应用程序一致。我们正在覆盖全国各地的客户,现已在所有50个州开设账户,其中三分之二的新余额来自我们的分支机构。...

In US capital markets, momentum continues to build. We had strong M&A activity this quarter that included advising on three cross-border transactions and three deals completed in close partnership with commercial banking. With strategic investments we made in our US platform, together with the strength of our Canadian business, we expect continued good performance and strong operating leverage for the overall capital markets business going forward.
We're continuing to grow our bank by executing on strategies that leverage BMO’s unique strengths, including our collaborative approach to building customer relationships and loyalty, guided by our purpose to boldly grow the good in business and life in partnership with our customers. For example, this quarter, we launched a holistic healthcare banking program supported by BMO professionals with a deep understanding of practitioners’ needs. This integrated team provides trusted banking and wealth management advice through every stage of our customers’ journey from starting a practice to growing and innovating to succession planning and to retirement.
Our integrated approach recognizes the unique and evolving needs of our small business customers across industries. In agriculture, for example, we're proud to be the number one partner for Canadian farmers, where our scale and deep understanding of the industry enables our bankers to build long term relationships, as trusted advisors helping our clients navigate trade and climate challenges, including offering relief programs where needed.
Looking ahead, our diversification and earning strength positions us well for uncertainties in the environment. The core of our bank, our flagship personal and commercial businesses on both sides of the border, account for two-thirds of the bank's income and continue to demonstrate good earnings power. We're gaining share and we're not wavering from our disciplined risk and underwriting principles.
We have a strong foundation and we're executing on agile and sustainable business strategies designed to deliver good performance, even in a more challenging revenue environment. Operating leverage improved from last quarter and we expect that to continue. Our management team remains firmly committed to achieving our efficiency target of 58% by 2021. We're making strategic choices in each business to drive the profitability and the operating strength of the bank over the long term, such as the actions we've taken in capital markets and wealth to align resources with the market dynamics and revenue environment. Holding true to our purpose will shape our success and that of our customers, employees and communities.
And now, I'll turn it over to Tom to talk about the third quarter financial results.

在美国资本市场,势头继续增强。本季度我们进行了强大的并购活动,其中包括就三项跨境交易提供咨询服务,以及与商业银行业密切合作完成的三项交易。凭借我们在美国平台上进行的战略投资,加上我们加拿大业务的实力,我们预计未来整体资本市场业务将继续保持良好表现和强劲的经营杠杆。

我们通过执行利用BMO独特优势的战略继续发展我们的银行,包括我们建立客户关系和忠诚度的协作方法,以我们的目标为指导,与客户合作,大胆增加业务和生活的利益。例如,本季度,我们推出了由BMO专业人士支持的全面医疗保健银行计划,深入了解从业者的需求。这个整合的团队在客户从开始实践到成长和创新再到继任计划和退休的每一个阶段都提供值得信赖的银行和财富管理建议。

我们的综合方法可以满足各行各业小企业客户的独特需求和不断变化的需求。例如,在农业方面,我们很自豪能成为加拿大农民的头号合作伙伴,我们的规模和对行业的深刻理解使我们的银行家能够建立长期关系,作为值得信赖的顾问帮助我们的客户应对贸易和气候挑战,包括在需要时提供救济计划。

展望未来,我们的多元化和盈利能力使我们能够很好地应对环境的不确定性。我们银行的核心是我们在边境两边的旗舰个人和商业企业,占该银行收入的三分之二,并继续表现出良好的盈利能力。我们正在获得份额,我们并没有动摇我们的纪律风险和承保原则。

我们拥有坚实的基础,我们正在执行敏捷和可持续的业务战略,旨在提供良好的业绩,即使在更具挑战性的收入环境中也是如此。经营杠杆比上一季度有所改善,我们预计这种情况将持续我们的管理团队仍然坚定地致力于在2021年实现58%的效率目标。我们在每项业务中做出战略选择,以长期推动银行的盈利能力和运营实力,例如我们采取的行动资本市场和财富使资源与市场动态和收入环境保持一致。坚持我们的目标将塑造我们的成功以及我们的客户,员工和社区的成功。

而现在,我将把它交给汤姆谈谈第三季度的财务业绩。

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

Thank you, Darryl and good morning, everyone. My comments will start on slide 8. Q3 reported EPS was $2.34 cents and net income was 1.6 billion. Adjusted EPS was $2.38 and adjusted net income was 1.6 billion, both up 1%. Our operating results this quarter reflect good performance in our P&C and capital market businesses and positive operating leverage. Adjusting items are similar in character to past quarters and are shown on slide 24.
Net revenue of 5.8 billion was up 5% or 4%, excluding the impact of the stronger US dollar, reflecting good performance in our P&C businesses and to BMO capital markets, partially offset by a lower contribution from the insurance business. Expenses increased 4% or 3%, excluding the impact of the stronger US dollar, largely reflecting higher employee related expenses and technology costs. Operating leverage for the quarter was positive 0.5% at the all bank level.
Looking forward, we're on track to deliver positive operating leverage again in the fourth quarter. As we said on our second quarter earnings call, we expect expense growth for the second half of the year to be half the rate of the first half of the year and we're on track to deliver that.
Moving to slide 9 for capital, the common equity tier one ratio was 11.4%. The ratio is up 10 basis points from the prior quarter, driven by retained earnings growth and lower deductions, partially offset by higher risk weighted assets. The higher risk weighted assets were driven by commercial and corporate loan growth across our businesses, net of lower market [indiscernible].
Moving now to our operating groups and starting on slide 10. Canadian P&C net income was 649 million, up 1% from last year with strong pre-provision pre-tax earnings growth of 8%. Revenue growth was 6%, driven by higher balances, increased non-interest revenue and higher margins. Total loans were up 6% with commercial loans up a strong 16%. Mortgage growth through proprietary channels, including amortizing HELOCs was 4%. Deposit growth continued to be very good with personal balances up 12% and commercial up 9%.
NIM was up 4 basis points from the last quarter, reflecting improved lending spreads including the benefit of a widening prime to BA and favorable product mix changes. Expense growth was 4%, reflecting investment in the business. Operating leverage was good at 1.9% and efficiency improved 47.3%. The provision for credit losses was 204 million and includes a provision on performing loans of 30 million.
Moving to US P&C on slide 11, and my comments here will speak to the US dollar performance. Net income for the quarter was 285 million, down 1% from last year and pre-provision pre-tax earnings growth was strong at 9%. Revenue growth was good at 5%, reflecting higher loan and deposit balances, net of lower net interest margin. Average loan growth was 13%, with commercial loans up 16% and higher personal loans. Deposit growth continues to be good, up 14%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double digit growth in both personal and commercial deposits.

感谢Darryl,大家早上好。我的评论将从幻灯片8开始。第三季度每股盈利为2.34美分,净收入为16亿美元。调整后每股收益为2.38美元,调整后净收益为16亿美元,均上涨1%。本季度我们的经营业绩反映了我们的财险和资本市场业务的良好表现以及积极的经营杠杆。调整项目的特征与过去的季度类似,并显示在幻灯片24上。

除了美元走强的影响外,58亿美元的净收入增长了5%或4%,反映了我们的财产险业务和BMO资本市场的良好表现,部分被保险业务的贡献减少所抵消。除美元走强影响外,支出增加4%或3%,主要反映了员工相关费用和技术成本的上升。本季度的经营杠杆在所有银行层面均为正0.5%。

展望未来,我们有望在第四季度再次提供积极的经营杠杆。正如我们在第二季度财报电话会议上所说,我们预计今年下半年的费用增长率将是今年上半年的一半,我们有望实现这一目标。

转为第9轮资本,普通股一级比率为11.4%。由于留存收益增长和较低的扣除额,该比率较上一季度上升10个基点,部分被风险加权资产增加所抵消。风险加权资产较高的原因是我们业务的商业和公司贷款增长,扣除了较低的市场[音频不清晰]。

现在转到我们的运营团队并从幻灯片10开始。加拿大财产险的净收入为6.49亿美元,比去年增长1%,前期税前收益增长强劲,为8%。由于余额增加,非利息收入增加以及利润率提高,收入增长率为6%。贷款总额增长6%,商业贷款增长16%。通过专有渠道实现的抵押贷款增长,包括摊销HELOC,为4%。存款增长继续保持良好,个人余额增长12%,商业增长9%。

净息差比上一季度上升4个基点,反映出贷款利差有所改善,包括扩大对广管局的优势和有利的产品组合变化。费用增长率为4%,反映了对业务的投资。经营杠杆率为1.9%,效率提高47.3%。信贷损失准备金为2.04亿美元,其中包括履行3000万美元贷款的规定。

转到第11页的美国财险,我在这里的评论将谈到美元的表现。本季度净收入为2.85亿美元,比去年下降1%,预先提供的税前收益增长强劲,达到9%。收入增长良好,为5%,反映出贷款和存款余额增加,净利息率下降。平均贷款增长率为13%,商业贷款增长16%,个人贷款增加。存款增长继续良好,增长14%,这是个人和商业存款连续第四个季度实现两位数增长。

Net interest margin was down 15 basis points from last quarter due to higher deposit costs, including changes in mix, loans spread compression and the impact of loans growing faster than deposits. Expenses were well managed and up just 2%. Operating leverage was strong at 2.8% and the efficiency ratio improved to 57.9%. Provision for credit losses were 73 million and include a $28 million provision for credit losses on performing loans.
Moving now to slide 12, BMO capital markets’ net income was good at 318 million, up 5% from last year. The US business continued to perform very well, delivering net income of USD83 million and contributing 34% of capital markets earnings. Revenue growth was strong at 9% with investment in corporate banking revenue up 15% and trading products up 4%. Expenses increased 13% with the KGS acquisition accounting for almost half of that increase. The stronger US dollar contributed approximately 1% to each of revenue and expense growth. Provisions for credit losses were 10 million compared to 7 million in the prior year.
Moving to slide 13, Wealth Management net income was 257 million. Traditional wealth net income of 233 million was up 10% from last year, with higher revenue primarily due to the impact of a legal permission in the prior year and higher deposit and loan revenue. Average loan growth was strong at 16% and deposits grew 5%, as we continue to diversify our product mix. Insurance net income was 24 million, down from 89 million in the prior year and below the level of a typical quarter, largely due to lower reinsurance results, and the impact of lower interest rates.
On reinsurance, as Darryl mentioned, we have made the decision to wind down our property and casualty reinsurance business. This decision reflects returns in the business coming in at a level below our expectations, and a higher level of variability in results partially due to weather related claims. Expenses were well managed and up 1% from last year.
Turning now to slide 14 for corporate services. The net loss was 21 million and 34 million better than the net loss a year ago. Results were above trend and include items that had a positive impact on revenue and expenses in the current quarter, including a gain on the sale of an office building.
To conclude, the third quarter results demonstrate the benefits of our diversified business mix, good operating discipline and a positive trend on expenses as expected. We're focused on executing our strategy and continuing to generate positive operating leverage as we head into the fourth quarter and into next year.
And with that, I'll hand it over to Pat.

由于存款成本上升,包括组合变化,贷款利差压缩以及贷款增长快于存款的影响,净息差较上季度下降15个基点。费用管理良好,仅增长2%。经营杠杆率为2.8%,效率提升至57.9%。信贷损失准备金为7300万美元,其中包括2800万美元用于履行贷款的信贷损失准备金。

现在转向第12页,BMO资本市场的净收入为3.18亿美元,比去年增长5%。美国业务继续表现良好,净收入为8300万美元,占资本市场收入的34%。收入增长强劲,达到9%,公司银行业务收入增长15%,交易产品增长4%。 KGS收购的费用几乎增加了一半,费用增加了13%。美元走强对收入和费用增长的贡献率约为1%。信贷损失准备金为1000万,而去年为700万。

转向幻灯片13,财富管理净收入为2.57亿。传统财富净收入为2.33亿,比去年增长10%,收入增加主要是由于前一年法律许可的影响以及较高的存贷款收入。随着我们继续实现产品组合多元化,平均贷款增长强劲,达到16%,存款增长5%。保险净收入为2400万美元,低于上年同期的8900万美元,低于典型季度水平,主要原因是再保险业绩下降以及利率下降的影响。

关于再保险,正如达里尔所说,我们已经决定放弃我们的财产和伤亡再保险业务。该决定反映了业务中的回报率低于我们的预期,并且结果的可变性水平较高,部分原因是与天气相关的索赔。费用管理良好,比去年增加1%。

现在转到第14页的公司服务。净亏损为2100万,比一年前的净亏损高出3400万。结果高于趋势,包括对本季度收入和支出产生积极影响的项目,包括出售办公楼的收益。

总而言之,第三季度业绩证明了我们多元化业务组合,良好的经营纪律以及预期的费用积极趋势带来的好处。我们专注于执行我们的战略,并在我们进入第四季度和明年时继续产生积极的经营杠杆。

有了它,我会把它交给帕特。

Pat Cronin

Pat Cronin

Okay, thank you, Tom and good morning, everyone. Starting on slide 16, the total provision for credit losses was $306 million or 28 basis points, which is up from 16 basis points last quarter. As you may recall, last quarter’s PCL included a $40 million recovery on the US commercial loan. Adjusting for that significant recovery, the quarter-over-quarter increase was driven by three main factors.
First, higher Canadian consumer losses realized almost entirely as a result of implementation issues with a new consumer collections platform. Second, a single large loss in our Canadian commercial portfolio and third, a higher provision this quarter for performing loans. I will discuss each of these further in my subsequent comments.
Looking at the PCL for impaired loans, our provision this quarter was $243 million or 22 basis points, an increase of $93 million from the prior quarter. Adjusting for the $40 million recovery I referenced earlier, the balance of the increase this quarter was in Canadian P&C and came from two principal sources. First, consumer PCL increased $26 million to $133 million. This increase was primarily due to elevated delinquencies, which were driven by implementation issues associated with our new collections system. With these implementation issues largely behind us, we expect Canadian consumer losses to normalize over the next few quarters.
The second factor driving the overall increase this quarter was in the Canadian commercial business, where we had a $41 million impaired provision, an increase of $26 million from the prior quarter. This increase was mostly due to loss provisioning on one account. Apart from these two factors in Canadian P&C, the PCL on impaired loan results in the other businesses were good this quarter. US consumer provisions at $8 million were up from their very low level last quarter, but still remain at the lower end of the recent historical range.
US commercial PCL on impaired loans was $53 million compared to $16 million last quarter. Adjusting for last quarter’s $40 million recovery, commercial PCL was actually lower this quarter than in Q2. PCL on impaired loans for capital markets was also lower this quarter at $7 million, compared to a $12 million provision in Q2.
Now, turning to the performing loan provision, and the third of the three factors I referred to at the outset of my remarks, PCL on performing loans was $63 million, an increase of $37 million from last quarter. This increase was due to a combination of balanced growth, a modestly softer economic outlook and to a lesser extent credit migration. We view this increase as a prudent adjustment to our performing loan provision and not a reflection of concern with credit quality in any of our lending portfolios.
Turning to slide 17, formations decreased $62 million this quarter, with notable decreases in Canadian consumer as well as in commercial loans. While there were formations in the oil and gas sector, as with last quarter, we provisioned appropriately based on our expectation of relatively low ultimate losses on these formations. The ratio of gross impaired loans to total loans was 55 basis points this quarter, up 2 basis points compared to the prior quarter and well within recent historical levels.

好的,谢谢你,汤姆,大家早上好。从幻灯片16开始,信贷损失总额为3.06亿美元或28个基点,比上一季度的16个基点有所上升。您可能还记得,上一季度的PCL包括美国商业贷款的4000万美元复苏。针对这一重大复苏的调整,季度环比增长受三个主要因素的推动。

首先,由于新的消费者收集平台的实施问题,加拿大的消费者损失几乎全部增加。第二,我们的加拿大商业投资组合中出现单一的巨额亏损,第三是本季度提供贷款的较高拨备。我将在随后的评论中进一步讨论这些问题。

从PCL的减值贷款来看,本季度我们的拨备为2.43亿美元或22个基点,比上一季度增加了9300万美元。调整我前面提到的4000万美元的复苏,本季度的增长余额来自加拿大财险,来自两个主要来源。首先,消费者PCL增加了2600万美元,达到1.33亿美元。这一增长主要是由于拖欠率上升,这是由与我们新的收款系统相关的实施问题所驱动的。由于这些实施问题在很大程度上落后于我们,我们预计加拿大消费者的损失将在未来几个季度正常化。

推动本季度整体增长的第二个因素是加拿大商业业务,我们的减值拨备为4100万美元,比上一季度增加了2600万美元。这一增长主要是由于一个账户的损失准备金。除了加拿大财险中的这两个因素外,本季度其他业务的减值贷款业绩PCL也不错。美国800万美元的消费者拨备从上季度的非常低水平上涨,但仍然处于近期历史区间的较低水平。

美国商业PCL减值贷款为5300万美元,而上一季度为1600万美元。调整上一季度4000万美元的复苏,本季度商用PCL实际上低于第二季度。本季度资本市场减值贷款的PCL也较低,为700万美元,而第二季度为1200万美元。

现在,转向执行贷款,以及我在发言开始时提到的三个因素中的第三个,PCL在履行贷款方面是6300万美元,比上一季度增加了3700万美元。这种增长是由于经济增长平衡,经济前景略微疲软以及信贷迁移程度较小。我们认为这一增长是对我们履行贷款准备金的谨慎调整,而不是我们任何贷款组合中对信用质量的担忧。

转向幻灯片17,本季度编队减少了6200万美元,加拿大消费者和商业贷款显着减少。虽然石油和天然气行业有形成,但与上一季度一样,我们根据我们对这些地层相对较低的最终损失的预期进行了适当的配置。本季度总减值贷款占贷款总额的比例为55个基点,比上一季度增加2个基点,并且在近期历史水平之内。

In summary, we are not seeing any concerning systemic, thematic or sectoral trends in any of our credit books, which remain of strong and consistent credit quality. While this quarter’s loss rate is at the high end of recent guidance, based on the nature of this quarter's increases and our current economic outlook, we still expect to see losses in the low to mid-20 basis points going forward.
I will now turn the call over to the operator for the question-and-answer portion of today's presentation.

总之,我们在任何信用账簿中都没有看到任何涉及系统性,主题性或部门性的趋势,这些信用账簿仍具有强大且一致的信用质量。 虽然本季度的亏损率处于近期指引的高端,但基于本季度增长的性质以及我们当前的经济前景,我们仍然预计未来中低至20个基点将出现亏损。

我现在将把这个电话转到运营商处,查看今天演讲的问答部分。

问答环节

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Meny Grauman with Cormark Securities.

[操作员说明]我们的第一个问题来自Menmark Grauman和Cormark Securities。

Meny Grauman

We hear a lot about trade uncertainty these days and what that's causing to the overall business environment, given your position both in Canada and in the US. Can you comment on what you're seeing there on a ground level in terms of the impact that trade is having on your customers? And specifically, if you could talk about the ag business, are you seeing any signs of trouble there? If you could comment on that from a credit perspective in particular?

鉴于您在加拿大和美国的地位,我们现在听到很多关于贸易不确定性以及这对整个商业环境造成的影响。 您能否根据交易对客户的影响评论您在底层看到的内容? 具体而言,如果你能谈谈ag业务,你有没有看到任何麻烦的迹象? 如果您可以从信用角度对此进行评论?...

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Meny, it’s Darryl. Thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start and -- with respect to the ag business, Pat might have a comment on the credit question that you asked. In general, I would say, it's hard to ignore the fact that the trade tensions are creating, first of all, volatility in the markets, as you know well, but also some suppression of growth. If we look at it across all industries, if we look at across the US, our estimate is that including the late developments of late last week that we would see something in the order of a half a percentage point of US GDP impact as a result of the trade protectionist measures in aggregate, that's coming off of a fairly healthy level.
And unemployment, as we know, is still extraordinarily low by any historical standards. And we've got inflation around 2%. So it's not a catastrophe, but it is definitely a slowing environment from the perspective of GDP growth. Our customer base in Canada and the US continues to spend and continues to expand, I would say a little bit more prudently than perhaps they might have 6 or 12 months ago. So a slowing environment as a result of the trade measures for sure.
As far as credit is concerned, we do feel it in some portfolios more than others. The good news is you referenced ag in particular, the ag portfolio in the US in particular is under some stress partly related to trade. It's well covered by land value, so you don't see provisions necessarily, but there is some stress in that small portfolio for us. Would you add much to that, Pat?

梅西,这是达里尔。谢谢你的提问。也许我会开始 - 关于ag业务,Pat可能会对您提出的信用问题发表评论。总的来说,我想说,很难忽视这样一个事实,即贸易紧张局势正在创造,首先是市场的波动,正如你所知,但也有一些抑制增长。如果我们在所有行业中看一下,如果我们看看整个美国,我们的估计是包括上周末的后期发展,我们会看到美国国内生产总值影响的半个百分点的结果贸易保护主义措施的总体来说,这是相当健康的水平。

我们知道,失业率在任何历史标准下仍然非常低。我们的通货膨胀率约为2%。所以这不是灾难,但从GDP增长的角度来看,这绝对是一个放缓的环境。我们在加拿大和美国的客户群继续消费并继续扩大,我想比他们可能在6或12个月之前更谨慎一点。因此贸易措施肯定会导致环境放缓。

就信用而言,我们确实在某些投资组合中感受到的比其他投资组合更多。好消息是你尤其引用了ag,特别是美国的股票投资组合在某种程度上与贸易有关。土地价值很好地覆盖了它,所以你没有看到必要的条款,但是对于我们来说,这个小组合有一些压力。帕特,你会增加多少吗?

Pat Cronin

Pat Cronin

No, we're certainly seeing the signs of stress in the US ag portfolio. That has persisted actually for the better part of the last couple of years. So exacerbated probably mildly by some of the recent tariff issues. But it's been going on for a while. I would contrast that quite strongly though, with Canada, where we're seeing very little impact from issues and in fact, which is the bulk of our portfolio, roughly about 83% of the ag books that's in Canada. And at the moment anyway, the level of impairment in that portfolio is virtually nil.
And maybe Dave or Cam, if you want to make a broader comment on other sectors.

不,我们当然看到了美国农业投资组合的压力迹象。 这实际上持续了过去几年的大部分时间。 最近的一些关税问题可能会略微加剧。 但它已经持续了一段时间。 我对此表示强烈反对,与加拿大相比,我们看到问题影响很小,实际上,这是我们投资组合的主要部分,大约占加拿大农业书籍的83%。 目前无论如何,该投资组合的减值水平几乎为零。

也许Dave或Cam,如果你想对其他领域做出更广泛的评论。

Dave Casper

Dave Casper

I think you've covered it well.

我觉得你已经很好了。

Meny Grauman

Just as a follow up there, just in terms of your expectations for loan growth specifically or commercial loan growth on both sides of the border, it doesn't look like there is any impact, given the kind of numbers you're putting up. Would you expect that growth to slow materially over the next few quarters?

就像那里的后续行动一样,就你对贷款增长的预期或边境两边的商业贷款增长而言,考虑到你提出的数字,看起来并没有任何影响。 您是否预计未来几个季度的增长会大幅放缓?

Dave Casper

Dave Casper

This is Dave. I would say, I would expect it to moderate to some extent, not necessarily, due to any of the factors that we've discussed as far as trade. It's just, we've experienced good, strong, loan growth. And I think over time, it will moderate. That would be the general view.

这是戴夫。 我想说,由于我们在交易中讨论过的任何因素,我认为它会在一定程度上缓和,不一定。 只是,我们经历了良好,强劲的贷款增长。 而且我认为随着时间的推移,它会适度。 这将是一般观点。

Cam Fowler

Cam Fowler

It’s Cam. I’ll follow up on Dave's as well. In Canada, we're in the 16% zone on the commercial book, as you can see. Pipelines are -- the pipeline is more or less where it has been the last three or four quarters. I talked about diversification of that growth on this call. It's five industries that are at around that number, and it's five regions of the country that are double digits. So I do agree with Dave, there will be some moderation, but I wouldn't expect there to be too much in the near term.

这是Cam。 我也会跟进戴夫的。 在加拿大,正如你所看到的,我们在商业书籍的16%区域。 管道是 - 管道或多或少是过去三四个季度。 我谈到了这一增长的多样化。 这个数字大约是五个行业,而且这个国家的五个地区都是两位数。 所以我同意Dave,会有一些节制,但我不认为在短期内会有太多。

会议主持员

Our next question is from Gabriel Dechaine with National Bank Financial.

我们的下一个问题来自Gabriel Dechaine和National Bank Financial。

Gabriel Dechaine

Gabriel Dechaine

Good morning. Just a question for Pat and to clarify the issue with the Canadian consumer PCL, you implemented a new system. There were some delays in tracking or taking action on collections and that’s maybe created a backlog in your system and therefore a spike in PCL, so just kind of, is that correct and walk me through how this normalization trend is expected to develop?

早上好。 只是Pat的一个问题,为了澄清加拿大消费者PCL的问题,您实施了一个新系统。 跟踪或对集合采取行动有一些延迟,这可能会在您的系统中产生积压,因此PCL出现飙升,所以只有一点,这是正确的,并指导我预测这种正常化趋势会如何发展?

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Sure. So your description is accurate. And, yeah, there was just some implementation issues with the platform that we have largely sorted our way through. I think your best indication of any future impacts really comes from early stage delinquency. So you don't see it, but last quarter, we had a fairly large spike in early stage as you would expect as we fell behind on collections. That flowed through this quarter into the higher PCLs that you’re seeing. When I look at early stage delinquencies now across all of the consumer portfolio, we're seeing early stage delinquencies down in every single product category.
And actually, in terms of delinquency rates, pretty much back down to where they have been historically and so on that basis, that's why we're making a statement that we expect it to normalize. We're not seeing any of the same issues in those early stage delinquency numbers that we saw last quarter. So we think the issue is largely behind us. So from here on in, it will really depend on how the economy changes, more than anything else.

当然。所以你的描述是准确的。而且,是的,平台上只有一些实施问题,我们已经在很大程度上解决了这个问题。我认为你对未来任何影响的最好指示实际上来自早期阶段的违法行为。所以你没有看到它,但是上个季度,我们在早期阶段有一个相当大的峰值,正如你所期望的那样,我们落后于收藏品。这个季度流入你所看到的更高的PCL。当我查看所有消费者投资组合中的早期拖欠时,我们看到每个产品类别的早期违约率下降。

事实上,就拖欠率而言,几乎可以追溯到他们历史上的基础,以此为基础,这就是为什么我们要做出一个我们期望它正常化的声明。我们在上一季度看到的那些早期拖欠数字中没有看到任何相同的问题。所以我们认为问题在很大程度上落后于我们。因此,从现在开始,它将真正取决于经济如何变化,而不是其他任何事情。

Gabriel Dechaine

Gabriel Dechaine

Okay. And then just another one on the margin for the US business, a big drop there sequentially. Is there any timing issue there, your loans go down immediately and the deposits that you need to reprice those over time? And then, like, is there any need or appetite to take some other action? I know you've done it in the past where you've disposed of some low margin loan books because they just weren't making enough spread for you. Is there anything of that nature brewing?

好的。 然后又是美国业务利润率的另一个,顺序大幅下降。 那里是否有任何时间问题,您的贷款会立即下降,而您需要的存款会随着时间的推移重新定价? 然后,是否有任何需要或胃口采取其他行动? 我知道你在过去曾经处理过一些低利润的贷款账户,因为他们没有为你做足够的利差。 有没有那种自然酿造的东西?

Dave Casper

Dave Casper

So let me take the first -- it's Dave. The core drop this quarter was probably three things and all, you touched on them and all of them had a pretty similar impact. We did have, this quarter, stronger loan growth and deposit growth, so that in the quarter, that did make some of the difference. We also have rising deposit costs, as we continue to grow our customer base, more and more of our deposits are coming from our interest bearing deposits. So that has an impact as well and loan spreads to some extent and this will maybe get to your last question have come down a little bit, but I would say that is not due to any particular real strong diminution, it's more, we do have a higher credit quality today, we have most of our growth is coming from businesses where we have lower loss, given default. So that's had some impact. But I would not say there's any drastic action at all. We continue to grow our loans to good customers and also deposits. So that's probably the summary.

所以让我拿第一个 - 这是戴夫。本季度的核心跌幅可能是三件事,你触及它们,所有这些都有类似的影响。本季度,我们确实有更强劲的贷款增长和存款增长,因此在本季度,这确实产生了一些差异。我们的存款成本也在上升,随着我们的客户群不断增加,我们的存款越来越多来自我们的有息存款。所以这也有一定的影响和贷款利差在某种程度上,这可能会让你的最后一个问题有所下降,但我会说这不是由于任何特别真正的强烈减少,更多,我们确实有如今信用质量更高,我们的大部分增长来自于我们的亏损较低的业务,默认情况下。所以这有一些影响。但我不会说有任何激烈的行动。我们继续增加对优质客户和存款的贷款。所以这可能是摘要。

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

It’s Tom. Maybe I'll jump in on the trajectory and add the total bank perspective. So on the US P&C business, with the cuts that we've seen from the Fed, and the potential for ongoing very strong commercial loan growth, although a little moderated, likely to be some pressure in Q4 on the margin, that cut itself would be in the zone of 5 bps and there could be another 2 to 3 depending on the loan growth level and how strong it is in relation to deposits. So that's US P&C for Q4. The Canadian story is different and in Canada, we had a nice increase in margin in the current quarter. We think that will sustain for the fourth quarter. So Canadian margin should be flat to flattish in the fourth quarter.
And looking out to next year for the Canadian business, we think the margin will be again flattish, if the Bank of Canada moves, there's maybe a little bit of pressure but nothing significant from what we're seeing here today. And on the US side, if the Fed moves, again, there's a potential for some incremental pressure. And so at the total bank level, if you roll that up, Q4, with a little bit of pressure in the US, NIM is likely down ex trading in the zone of 1 to 3 bps. And out to next year, with Canada stable, bit of pressure in the US, there's the potential for another 1 to 2. So, big picture, Canada's pretty stable. US, with a strong loan growth and the Fed cutting bit of pressure, but not a really significant impact at the all bank level.

这是汤姆。也许我会跳进轨迹并添加银行总体视角。因此,在美国财产和意外业务方面,我们从美联储看到的削减,以及持续非常强劲的商业贷款增长的可能性,虽然有点放缓,可能会在第四季度出现一些压力,但这样做会减少在5个基点的区域内,可能还有2到3个区块,具体取决于贷款增长水平以及与存款相关的强度。这就是第四季度的美国财险。加拿大的情况有所不同,在加拿大,我们在本季度的利润率有了很大的提升。我们认为这将持续到第四季度。所以加拿大的利润率应该在第四季度保持平稳。

为了明年对加拿大企业的关注,我们认为利润率将再次持平,如果加拿大银行走势,可能会有一点点压力,但我们今天在这里看到的并不重要。而在美国方面,如果美联储再次走势,则可能会出现一些增量压力。因此,在整个银行层面,如果你在第四季度上涨,在美国受到一点压力,那么NIM可能在1至3个基点的区间内下跌。而到明年,随着加拿大稳定,在美国面临压力,还有可能再增加1比2.所以,从大局来看,加拿大相当稳定。美国贷款增长强劲,美联储减轻了压力,但并未对所有银行层面产生重大影响。

会议主持员

Our next question is from John Aiken with Barclays.

我们的下一个问题来自John Aiken和Barclays。

John Aiken

Tom, wanted to just get a little bit of more information on the reinsurance. What was the recurring level of earnings if you're going to go over a longer period of time, 3 to 5 years and with exiting the business, do you expect to see a material release of capital?

汤姆,想要获得关于再保险的更多信息。 如果你要经历更长的时间,3到5年并退出业务,那么经常性的收益水平是什么?你是否期望看到资本的重大释放?

Joanna Rotenberg

Joanna Rotenberg

Hi, this is Joanna. Thanks for your questions. So, as you described, and you saw, we did take a step to exit our business. Part of it was because of the consistency of earnings, and I would say over time, [indiscernible] by a few million dollars. I would say, overall, one of the reasons we've exited is because over the past two years in particular, because of some of the larger scale of events we've seen both in 2017 and 2018, it did give a lot more volatility to the business. And so, we have seen pricing improved, but not at the level we expected. And we are expecting and have continued concerns with climate change, we're just going to see more frequent and higher claims. And so we didn't feel like there was a good symmetry between risk and reward.
What I would describe is going forward, it won't have a material impact on our insurance earnings, partly because of the volatility we've seen in the business. What I would say though, is I do expect it to lower the volatility of our business, and even more importantly, improve the ROE for wealth.

嗨,这是乔安娜。谢谢你的问题。所以,正如你所描述的,你看到了,我们确实采取了一步退出我们的业务。部分原因是因为收益的一致性,而且我会说,随着时间的推移,[音频不清晰]将达到数百万美元。我要说的是,总的来说,我们退出的原因之一是因为过去两年特别是因为我们在2017年和2018年看到的一些较大规模的事件,它确实提供了更多的波动性对企业而言。因此,我们看到价格有所改善,但未达到我们预期的水平。我们期待并继续关注气候变化,我们只会看到更频繁和更高的声称。所以我们并不觉得风险与回报之间存在良好的对称性。

我将要描述的是,它不会对我们的保险收入产生重大影响,部分原因是我们在业务中看到的波动性。我想说的是,我确实希望它能降低我们业务的波动性,更重要的是,提高财富的净资产收益率。...

会议主持员

Our next question is from Doug Young with Desjardins.

我们的下一个问题来自Doug Young和Desjardins。

Doug Young

Good morning. Just maybe going to Pat, the 63 million PCL build and performing loans, hoping maybe you can just flesh that out a little bit and I know it's bounced around the last few quarters, just trying to get an idea of what if, for a normal quarter, if there is such a thing, what is a normal performing loan PCL build? Is it 2 basis points, 3 basis points?
And then just lastly, on credit, you talked about one large Canadian account that you provisioned for, was this something that was impaired in the quarter or was this something that was previously impaired and the provision was just updated?

早上好。 或许可以去Pat,6300万PCL构建和执行贷款,希望也许你可以稍微充实一点,我知道它在过去几个季度反弹,只是试图了解如果,对于正常情况 季度,如果有这样的事情,什么是正常表现贷款PCL建设? 是2个基点,3个基点?

然后最后,在信用方面,你谈到了你所配置的一个大型加拿大账户,这个问题在本季度是否有所损害,或者这是先前受损的情况,而且该条款刚刚更新了?

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Sure. I'll start with your first -- or your second question first. It was something that was impaired in the quarter where we took a provision on and it was in the services sector, in the healthcare sub sector. So I think you can see that in the disclosure.
In terms of the performing provision, unfortunately, I don't think there is such a thing really as a normal quarter. And I think you've seen that from all the banks over the course of the quarters. I can tell you in any given quarter, it's going to be driven first by loan growth, as you would imagine. And we had some of that this quarter, I would say that accounted for maybe something like a third of that number that you're seeing. Then it's going to depend on your forecast, that view of economic conditions out over the next 12 to 24 months.
And for us when we looked at the current data that we saw during the quarter, and particularly some softening and variables like corporate profit growth rates, and some modest adjustments to GDP, that added about another probably call it about a third to a half of the increase in the or the total provision, and then you're going to get credit migration in the portfolio as well and that credit migration can go up and down. It is somewhat asymmetric though, because credit migration, positive credit migration within stage 1 gives you a little bit of a benefit to ECL.
But negative migration from stage 1 to stage 2, when you trip over from 12 months to lifetime gives you quite a bit of an incremental bump to ECL. So even negative credit migration doesn't necessarily mean there's a lot of weakness in the portfolio. It -- sometimes it just results from that asymmetry to how things are moving around. And for us, that migration this quarter was about a quarter of the 63 million. And so, I can tell you going forward, as Dave said, and Cam would agree, we do expect to see continued loan growth.
So, to the extent that continues, you should expect to see a provision for that. And then I can tell you that our best guess for the outlook for the economic condition in the next 24 months is our current forecast. And so unless that changes on the basis of new data that's coming in over the course of the subsequent quarters, that likely won't change but again, to the extent that things get better or worse, we will move our economic forecast in light of the updated data.

当然。我先从你的第一个问题开始,或者先从你的第二个问题开始。在我们采取拨备的季度,它在服务业,医疗保健子行业中受到了损害。所以我认为你可以在披露中看到这一点。

不幸的是,在表演条款方面,我认为没有像普通季度这样的事情。而且我认为你已经看到了所有银行在整个过程中的情况。我可以在任何一个季度告诉你,它将首先由贷款增长推动,正如你想象的那样。我们在本季度有一些,我想说这可能是你所看到的那个数字的三分之一。然后它将取决于您的预测,即未来12到24个月的经济状况。

对我们来说,当我们查看本季度看到的当前数据时,特别是一些软化和变量,如企业利润增长率,以及对GDP的一些适度调整,这增加了另一个可能称之为约三分之一到一半增加或提供总额,然后您将在投资组合中获得信贷迁移,并且信贷迁移可以上下波动。虽然这有点不对称,因为信贷迁移,第一阶段的积极信贷迁移会给ECL带来一些好处。

但是从第1阶段到第2阶段的负面迁移,当你从12个月到终身旅行时,你会对ECL产生相当大的影响。因此,即使是负信用迁移也不一定意味着投资组合存在很多弱点。它 - 有时它只是由于事物如何移动的不对称性而产生的。对我们来说,本季度的迁移量约为6300万的四分之一。所以,我可以告诉你,正如Dave所说,而且Cam会同意,我们确实希望看到贷款继续增长。

因此,在持续的程度上,您应该期望看到一个规定。然后我可以告诉你,我们对未来24个月经济状况前景的最佳猜测是我们目前的预测。因此,除非根据随后几个季度出现的新数据而发生变化,否则这种变化可能不会再次发生变化,只要事情变得更好或更糟,我们将根据更新的数据。

会议主持员

Our next question is from Sumit Malhotra with Scotia Capital.

我们的下一个问题来自Sumit Malhotra和Scotia Capital。

Sumit Malhotra

Sumit Malhotra

Just to pick up on that, when you mentioned at the end of your prepared remarks that 20 to 25 basis points is still a reasonable level for the PCL ratio for the bank, is that inclusive of 2020? And are you looking only at the impaired portfolio or is that the total provision rate.

只是为了了解这一点,当你在准备好的评论结束时提到20至25个基点对于银行的PCL比率来说仍然是一个合理的水平时,是否包括2020年? 您是仅关注受损组合还是总提供率。

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

That would be the total provision rate. And, I think, we've been guiding to that number for a while now. So and I can give you a sense of how, why I'm thinking that way. If you look at the consumer portfolio, like I said, when we look at early stage delinquencies, both overall and regionally, we're seeing things returning pretty much to normal and so that was the origin of my earlier comment about why we think consumer PCLs will normalize over the course of the next couple of quarters, because we're just not seeing it in the early stage delinquency numbers.
On the wholesale side, we're seeing formation rates pretty much normally, you'll see them at 15 bps this quarter. That's pretty much exactly where they've been, on average over the last few years. Our gross impaired loan rate at 55. It's a little bit higher than what you saw last quarter and a year ago by a couple of basis points, but still, again, well, within the normal range. The weighted average probability default of the book is essentially flat to last quarter and almost flat to last year. And when I look across the diversification of the book, all of that tells me that, we're not seeing signs of stress that would cause that PCL rate to rise dramatically, other than the general upward trend from what we have highlighted as particularly low levels of loss rates in the last couple of years. And so that general trend, I think, will take us into the mid-20s. But based on what we're seeing in the credit quality of the book, both consumer and wholesale, we're not seeing that anything that would dramatically cause us to deviate from that number.

这将是总拨款率。而且,我认为,我们一直在指导这个数字。所以,我可以让你了解我为什么这么想。如果你看一下消费者投资组合,就像我说的那样,当我们看到整体和区域性的早期违约时,我们看到事情已经恢复正常,所以这就是我之前关于为何我们认为消费者的评论的起源PCL将在接下来的几个季度中正常化,因为我们只是在早期的拖欠数字中没有看到它。

在批发方面,我们看到形成率非常正常,你会在本季度以15个基点看到它们。这几乎就是他们过去几年的平均水平。我们的总减值贷款利率为55.它比你上一季度和一年前的几个基点高一点,但仍然,再次,在正常范围内。该书的加权平均概率违约率与上一季度基本持平,与去年基本持平。当我看到这本书的多样化时,所有这些都告诉我,我们没有看到压力的迹象会导致PCL率急剧上升,除了我们强调的特别低的总体上升趋势过去几年的损失率水平。因此,我认为这种趋势将使我们进入20世纪中期。但根据我们在书中的信用质量看到的消费者和批发品,我们没有看到任何会导致我们偏离这个数字的东西。

Sumit Malhotra

Sumit Malhotra

And candidly, I think you touched a bit on this in some of the remarks earlier, when you think about PCL ratios for the bank going forward to where they are now, it's fair to say one of the larger swing factors is, I would think, you're not expecting as much in the way of recoveries and just to be clear, when you talk about where provisions are going, do you embed any changes in the stage 1 and 2 provision or do you assume that to be zero unless model refinements are already being forecast?

坦率地说,我认为你在前面的一些评论中略微提到了这一点,当你考虑到银行的PCL比率前进到现在的位置时,可以说其中一个更大的波动因素是,我会想 ,你没有想到恢复的方式,只是要清楚,当你谈到条款的进展时,你是否在第1阶段和第2阶段的规定中嵌入了任何变化,或者你认为除非模型为零 正在预测改进?

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Yeah, the provision that we have right now reflects our best estimate of how the future is going to look for the performing provision. And then as you said, we don't really bake in recoveries into our forward look on PCLs. They do happen from time to time and it's not wildly unusual. As I said last quarter, we work recoveries pretty hard, consistent, pretty consistently. So, they're going to come in the future. I don't know when and how much, but, we certainly wouldn't bake them into our forward look.

是的,我们现在的条款反映了我们对未来如何寻找表演条款的最佳估计。 然后正如你所说的那样,我们并没有真正将恢复加入到PCL的前瞻性中。 它们确实不时发生,并不是非常不寻常。 正如我在上个季度所说的那样,我们的恢复非常努力,一致,非常一致。 所以,他们将来会来。 我不知道什么时候和多少,但是,我们当然不会把它们融入我们的前瞻性。

Sumit Malhotra

Sumit Malhotra

Last question is for Tom on capital. Just want to have the numbers right here, Tom, some of your counterparts had mentioned some adjustments that are coming in to start 2020 with IFRS16 and some of the other parameter updates. Do you have an estimate for the impact to BMO? And was there any pension liability hit for capital this quarter? It didn't look like it based on your number.

最后一个问题是汤姆的资本。 只想在这里找到数字,汤姆,你的一些同行已经提到了一些调整,这些调整将在2020年开始,IFRS16和其他一些参数更新。 您对BMO的影响有估计吗? 本季度资本是否有任何养老金责任? 它根据你的号码看起来不像。

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

Quick answer. So the Q1 impact from the IFRS 16 change and the change in some of the parameters is 15 to 20 basis points. And on the pension side, there was no meaningful impact in the current quarter. Our approach to managing the pension risk, looks to match the assets to the liabilities. It's not perfect. But it's a pretty good match. And we also have a pension asset. And so in the current quarter, that asset reduced and that's a deduction from capital. So that's actually a positive. And with that, the net impact from pension was de minimis in the quarter.

快速回答。 因此,IFRS 16的Q1影响发生变化,部分参数的变化为15至20个基点。 在养老金方面,本季度没有任何有意义的影响。 我们管理养老金风险的方法似乎使资产与负债相匹配。 这不完美。 但这是一个非常好的匹配。 我们还有养老金资产。 因此,在本季度,该资产减少,这是从资本中扣除的。 所以这实际上是积极的。 由此可见,养老金的净影响在本季度是微不足道的。

Sumit Malhotra

Sumit Malhotra

At this level of capital, do you anticipate once again becoming active on your NCIB?

在这个资本水平上,您是否预计会再次活跃在您的NCIB上?

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

Well, I'll stick to our normal story on that. We have felt very good about the loan growth that we've had in the business and the customer growth that comes with that, the commercial growth in particular in Canada and the US has been above market and we feel good about how the business is going. So that's our first and best use of capital. And if the ratio builds from the current level and moves above 11.50, we would expect to be active. So our normal guidance is for the ratio to grow by 10 to 15 basis points, we said last quarter that would be around the lower end of that range with strong growth. That's what played out this quarter. We've got the Q1 change coming as you asked about in your question. So bit of a long answer, but I'd expect activity with the ratio moving up from the current level. And we need to get through the Q1 adjustments that we've got coming.

好吧,我会坚持我们正常的故事。 我们对业务中的贷款增长以及随之而来的客户增长感到非常满意,特别是加拿大和美国的商业增长一直高于市场,我们对业务的发展方式感觉良好。 这是我们对资本的首次使用。 如果该比率从当前水平建立并超过11.50,我们预计会活跃。 因此,我们的正常指引是该比率增长10至15个基点,我们上个季度表示将在该范围的较低端附近且增长强劲。 这就是本季度的表现。 正如你在问题中提到的那样,我们已经有了Q1的变化。 这么长的答案,但我希望活动的比例从目前的水平上升。 我们需要完成我们即将到来的Q1调整。

会议主持员

Our next question is from Robert Sedran with CIBC Capital Markets.

我们的下一个问题来自Robert Sedran和CIBC Capital Markets。

Robert Sedran

罗伯特塞德兰

I’d like to try to combine, Tom, your outlook on the margin with some of Dave’s discussion on loan growth, to get a sense for revenues. It sounds like you’re still expecting a fairly robust top line as much as we try to forecast what the margin is going to do, I guess we're really trying to get at revenue. So the pre-provision earnings that we saw of around, I believe it was 9% in the US, is that a reasonable assumption even in this margin world, or should we expect that to slow?

我想把汤姆,你的利润前景与戴夫关于贷款增长的一些讨论结合起来,以了解收入。 听起来你仍然期待一个相当强劲的收入,就像我们试图预测利润将会做什么一样,我想我们真的想要获得收入。 因此,我们看到的预先提供的收益,我认为在美国是9%,即使在这个边际世界中也是一个合理的假设,或者我们应该预期这会减缓?

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

So let me start. It's a tough question to answer. Here's what I know. We will continue to grow our customer base probably faster than the market. It's still very good opportunities for us. That will lead to higher revenue, higher loan growth and higher deposit growth. The tougher part is just what happens with rate, so it's really hard for me to predict and what I can predict over the long term, we’ll continue to grow our US business on both the personal and commercial side. We've got some really strong momentum. And despite a lot of noise in the US economy, our clients are generally still pretty positive and I'm pretty positive about the long-term aspects of this business.

让我开始吧。 这是一个难以回答的问题。 这就是我所知道的。 我们将继续以比市场更快的速度扩大我们的客户群。 这对我们来说仍然是非常好的机会。 这将带来更高的收入,更高的贷款增长和更高的存款增长率。 更艰难的部分就是速率所发生的事情,因此我很难预测以及我可以长期预测的内容,我们将继续在个人和商业方面发展我们的美国业务。 我们有一些非常强劲的势头。 尽管美国经济中存在很多噪音,但我们的客户仍然非常积极,而且我对这项业务的长期方面非常乐观。

Robert Sedran

罗伯特塞德兰

So just to try to push a little bit further, I mean, we're -- so you're still expecting reasonable growth rates and with the margin contraction you had this quarter, you still put up some pretty strong top line, even with the rate moves. So, a pretty robust top line is still -- would still be the working assumption. I understand it's not guidance, but that's still what you're looking for.

所以只是为了试图进一步推进,我的意思是,我们 - 所以你仍然期待合理的增长率和你本季度的利润率收缩,你仍然会提出一些相当强劲的顶线,即使是 利率变动了。 所以,一个非常强大的顶线仍然 - 仍然是工作假设。 我知道这不是指导,但这仍然是你正在寻找的。

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

Well, I don't -- I think I pretty much said what I would say. I think it's -- again, I think the rates will have some impact. I just don't know what they'll be. But we're going to continue to grow customers. We're going to continue to grow deposits, loans and we'll see what happens. The 9% this quarter of PPPT was strong and -- that's a good number for us. I don't know what it is going to be next quarter.

嗯,我没有 - 我想我几乎会说我要说的。 我认为 - 再次,我认为利率会产生一些影响。 我只是不知道他们会是什么。 但我们将继续增加客户。 我们将继续增加存款和贷款,我们会看到会发生什么。 本季度PPPT的9%强劲,这对我们来说是一个很好的数字。 我不知道下个季度会发生什么。

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

And Rob, it’s Darryl. Let me see if I can come in on this. I think you've raised an important question and I thought you framed it well, in the sense that we think about the revenue growth of the business and we think about the overall returns of the business. The NIM is part of that equation. Of course, it's part of that equation. But when we look at our US businesses, plural, I talked about them earlier up 24% on earnings year to date, 14% in the quarter, the P&C business that you're quizzing Dave about just now, when we look at a compressing margin against an expanding customer base and top line growth, we also look at the fact that it does now have a double digit ROE and an efficiency ratio that is accretive to the rest of the bank's efficiency ratio.
So when I put all that together, that's an attractive package for the growth of the bank overall. And Tom talked earlier about the total bank NIM and when we look at total bank NIM and we don't get completely myopic into the margin in one of our business segments, at 167 basis points, we think it's quite competitive with respect to other investment opportunities. So when we put that into the mix, we like the trajectory, we can't control the rate environment, as Dave said, but our strategy is unchanged and we keep pumping with our customer base.

还有罗布,这是达里尔。让我看看我是否可以参与其中。我认为你已经提出了一个重要问题,我认为你很好地构建了它,因为我们考虑了业务的收入增长,我们考虑了业务的整体回报。净息差是该等式的一部分。当然,它是这个等式的一部分。但是,当我们看看我们的美国企业,复数时,我早些时候谈到他们的收益比去年同期增长24%,本季度增长14%,P&C业务就是你刚才问到Dave,当我们看一下压缩时对于不断扩大的客户群和收入增长的利润率,我们还看到它现在拥有两位数的净资产收益率和效率比率,从而增加了银行效率比的其余部分。

因此,当我把所有这些放在一起时,这对整个银行的发展来说是一个有吸引力的方案。汤姆早些时候谈到了银行净息差,当我们看到银行净息差时,我们并没有完全接近我们的一个业务部门的利润率,达到167个基点,我们认为它与其他投资相比具有相当的竞争力机会。因此,当我们把它放到混合中时,我们喜欢轨迹,我们无法控制费率环境,正如Dave所说,但我们的策略没有改变,我们不断向客户群提供支持。

Robert Sedran

罗伯特塞德兰

Okay, that may have been an unanswerable question. So I appreciate the attempt.

好吧,这可能是一个无法回答的问题。 所以我很欣赏这种尝试。

会议主持员

Our next question is from Mario Mendonca with TD Securities.

我们的下一个问题来自Mario Mendonca和道明证券。

Mario Mendonca

Mario Mendonca

Darryl, you made a -- you've emphasized the importance of continuing to manage expenses lower in this environment and I'm just observing a sort of different approach to this across banks in Canada and the US, so I'm taking a very aggressive approach with big restructuring charges and others sort of doing it at the margin. When you think about BMO in 2020 and 2021, how do you think BMO behaves a little more aggressively with perhaps some restructuring initiatives, meaningful restriction initiatives or just -- perhaps just let attrition take care of expenses, how do you envision BMO playing out?

达里尔,你做了 - 你已经强调了继续在这种环境下管理费用的重要性,而我只是在加拿大和美国的各个银行观察到一种不同的方法,所以我非常喜欢 采取大规模重组收费的积极做法和其他类似的做法。 当您在2020年和2021年考虑BMO时,您认为BMO如何更积极地进行一些重组计划,有意义的限制措施或者只是 - 或许只是让磨损来处理费用,您如何设想BMO的发挥?

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Yeah, so it's a good question. So, in order to answer that question, I'll take you back a bit. We talked a couple of years ago about working our efficiency ratio down and delivering it through operating leverage, the most important outcome is the forecast that we've given, holding ourselves accountable to the 58% in 2021. And if you see the trajectory, we're on our way there. We're at -- we're below 50 for the – 60, pardon me, for the first time in a very long time this quarter, and we're getting there by moderating our expense growth. Tom told you last quarter that we would start to moderate our expense growth in this quarter.
We've done that, we're telling you today we're going to moderate that even further in the fourth quarter. I think you're going to see us do that considerably. And then as we go out beyond that, we're working on our business plans. We're thinking about how we're going to manage through the course of 2020 and 2021. I think it would be very prudent to assume that we're going to -- we and others are going to have a reasonable, but lower revenue growth environment to work with them.
And in that context, we’ll make our decisions on how aggressive we’ll be with respect to restructuring, I would say as we launch into the first couple of quarters of 2020. So stay tuned on that, decisions aren't yet made, but it will be in the context of our assessment of the overall revenue environment and our ability to reach the commitment that we've made to 58%.

是的,所以这是一个很好的问题。所以,为了回答这个问题,我会带你回去。几年前我们谈到了降低效率并通过运营杠杆提供效率,最重要的结果是我们给出的预测,在2021年我们对自己负责58%。如果你看到了这个轨迹,我们正在那里。我们在 - - 60岁时我们已经低于50,原谅我,这是本季度很长一段时间以来的第一次,我们通过调节我们的费用增长来实现这一目标。汤姆上个季度告诉你,我们将在本季度开始减少费用增长。

我们已经这样做了,我们今天告诉你,我们将在第四季度进一步调整。我想你会看到我们这么做。然后,当我们超越它时,我们正在制定我们的业务计划。我们正在思考我们将如何管理整个2020年和2021年的过程。我认为假设我们将会采取这样做是非常谨慎的 - 我们和其他人将会有合理但收入较低的收入成长环境与他们合作。

在这种情况下,我们将决定我们在重组方面的积极性,我会说,当我们进入2020年的前几个季度时。所以请继续关注,尚未作出决定,但这将是我们对整体收入环境的评估以及我们达到58%承诺的能力。...

Mario Mendonca

Mario Mendonca

So at this point, it would not be appropriate for me to rule it out, like a meaningful restructuring charge?

所以在这一点上,我不适合排除它,就像有意义的重组费用一样?

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Yeah, I've said before, I think in a couple of your competitors’ conferences, in fact, that you shouldn't necessarily rule it out. But there will be a day that will come where we’ll say that story is behind us.

是的,我之前说过,我认为在你的几个竞争对手的会议中,你不一定要排除它。 但是有一天我们会说故事已经过去了。

Mario Mendonca

Mario Mendonca

And then maybe for Pat, looking back at other credit cycles, and I'm not suggesting that what we're seeing today is a credit cycle that appears to be normalization. Looking back at other cycles, PCLs got as high as 80, 90, 100 basis plus. As I start to model out a credit cycle today or what it might look like today, would it be your view that a credit cycle today could in fact be a lot less meaningful in terms of how high the PCL’s ratio gets than it has been in the past, because of things like mix or perhaps just underwriting standards? Is that conceivable or is that wishful thinking on my part?

然后也许对帕特来说,回顾其他信贷周期,我并不是说我们今天所看到的是一个看似正常化的信贷周期。 回顾其他周期,PCL高达80,90,100基数。 当我开始模拟今天的信贷周期或今天的情况时,您认为今天的信贷周期实际上可能在PCL的比率高于其所处的水平方面没那么有意义。 过去,因为混合或者只是承保标准之类的东西? 这是可以想象的还是我的那种一厢情愿的想法?

Pat Cronin

Pat Cronin

Sorry, I don't think that's wishful thinking at all. I do think the mix issue is an important one. I look at some of the more particularly volatile sectors like CRE, and I think about what our mix looks like in the CRE sector now, relative to what it looked like going into the last cycle. And when we start to decompose sectors like that, we actually feel much better about where we are now versus say the last cycle. And the diversification of the book has only gotten better since the last cycle, if you think about how we've diversified into the US, how we've diversified into multiple other sectors that weren't there in 2008. And I think diversification is a pretty powerful benefit when it comes to a change in the cycle.
But, I think I'm kind of with you with respect to the cycle. I'm not calling for a recession, either nor are we institutionally. When I look at forecast for GDP rates, for unemployment, for housing starts, for interest rates, all of that to us for 2020 looks pretty stable relative to 2019. And so while I think things will be softer relative to some really strong performance in ‘17, and ‘18, it doesn't feel recessionary. But if we do end up in that cycle, I think you're right. I think the mix of our business and the diversification profile is much better than what it was in 2008 and I think that'll serve us well.

对不起,我认为这根本不是一厢情愿的。我认为混合问题很重要。我看一下像CRE这样一些特别不稳定的部门,我想一下我们现在在CRE部门看起来的情况,相对于它进入最后一个周期的情况。当我们开始分解这样的行业时,我们实际上对现在的位置感觉好多了,而不是说最后一个周期。如果你想到我们如何多元化进入美国,我们如何多元化进入2008年不存在的其他多个行业,那么这本书的多样化自上一周期以来才变得更好。我认为多样化是当涉及到周期的变化时,这是一个非常强大的好处。

但是,我认为我对你的周期很满意。我不是要求经济衰退,也不是我们在制度上。当我看到GDP率,失业率,房屋开工率和利率的预测时,相对于2019年,我们对2020年的所有这些看起来都相当稳定。因此,虽然我认为相对于一些非常强劲的表现,情况将会更加平稳。 '17,'18,它不会感到经济衰退。但如果我们最终进入那个周期,我认为你是对的。我认为我们的业务和多元化形象的结合比2008年要好得多,我认为这对我们很有帮助。

会议主持员

Our next question is from Scott Chan with Canaccord Genuity.

我们的下一个问题来自Scott Chan和Canaccord Genuity。

Scott Chan

Good morning. Maybe going back Tom to the US NIM question, I think you commented that the initial Fed cut impacted US NIM by 5 bps. And if that kind of continues three or four times, say up until fiscal 2020, is that kind of a nice barometer for you on potential future impacts, just on that isolated item.

早上好。 也许汤姆回到美国的NIM问题,我认为你评论说美联储最初的削减对美国净息差影响了5个基点。 如果这种情况持续三到四次,比如直到2020财年,那么对于潜在的未来影响来说,这是一个很好的晴雨表,就在那个孤立的项目上。

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

So I guess two things. You heard correctly on the approximate impact of the first cut. And then, I would say, the answer to the second question about thinking about the impact of future cuts would be no. So typically, as rates move down, we'd expect less sensitivity in the margin to cuts and we saw that same dynamic playing out as rates moved up initially. Our deposit spreads widened significantly as rates started to move and that impact diminished in the last couple of cuts. And so we'd expect higher sensitivity in the first couple of cuts, then in cuts that would follow. So, direction would be similar, but the impact will become muted as the Fed moves add it up.

所以我猜两件事。 你听说过第一次切割的近似影响。 然后,我想说,关于考虑未来削减影响的第二个问题的答案是否定的。 因此,通常情况下,随着利率下降,我们预计削减利润的敏感度会降低,而且我们看到同样的动态在最初的利率上升。 随着利率开始上升,我们的存款利差大幅扩大,而且在最近几次削减中,这种影响减弱了。 因此,我们预计在前几次削减中会有更高的敏感度,然后是随后的削减。 因此,方向将是类似的,但随着美联储的加速推动,其影响将变得微弱。

会议主持员

For timing purposes, our last question is from Darko Mihelic with RBC Capital Markets.

为了计时目的,我们的最后一个问题是来自RBC Capital Markets的Darko Mihelic。

Darko Mihelic

Darko Mihelic

Just a quick question on the corporate. It looks like you had office building sale and some higher securities gains. Just to help with the modeling, I wonder if you can give us an idea of the size of that or maybe what corporate should really be losing every quarter?

只是一个关于企业的快速问题。 看起来你有办公楼出售和一些较高的证券收益。 只是为了帮助建模,我想知道你是否可以给我们一个关于它的大小的想法,或者也许每个季度企业应该失去什么?

Tom Flynn

汤姆弗林

Yeah, so it's Tom. So corporate had better than average performance in the quarter for the reasons I mentioned in my remarks, and you played back. The way I would look at corporate is our average loss over the last six quarters is about 60 million. And that's as good a number as any to work with. And the numbers move around quarter to quarter. And, we saw the benefit of that in the current quarter, but for modeling purposes, we think taking the last four quarters, the last six quarters is a reasonable approach. And again, the number is 62 million for the last six quarters.

是的,所以这是汤姆。 由于我在发言中提到的原因,公司在本季度的表现要好于平均水平,而且你回放了。 我看待企业的方式是我们过去六个季度的平均损失约为6000万。 这和任何合作的数字一样好。 这些数字每季度四分之一左右。 而且,我们在本季度看到了这一点的好处,但出于建模目的,我们认为在过去四个季度中,过去六个季度是合理的方法。 而且,过去六个季度的数字是6200万。

会议主持员

Thank you. There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to turn the meeting back over to you, Mr. White.

谢谢。 目前没有其他问题。 怀特先生,我想把会议转回给你。

Darryl White

达里尔怀特

Thank you, operator. As I said earlier, we continue to have strong operating performance in our businesses with good PPPT growth for the quarter and for the year to date, while credit losses increased from very low levels as we prudently added allowances for performing loans. As Pat explained, credit quality in the portfolio remains very high.
Going back to the beginning of fiscal 2018, we discussed with you two clear objectives. One, growing our US business at a faster rate than the rest of the bank and two, improving the overall bank's efficiency performance. Now, almost two years later, our update on each of these objectives remains very positive. We've increased the share of the bank's earnings from our US operations from roughly 25% then to roughly 35% today, and as we said earlier, our US segment’s earnings are up 24% year-to-date, and we've done this by prudently taking share in our core businesses and consistently delivering double digit PPPT growth in the United States.
On efficiency, in fiscal 2017, our adjusted efficiency ratio was 62.7% in the quarter that we announced today. We broke through 60% and delivered 59.9% efficiency. Going forward, as Tom said, we have a clear focus on managing expense growth, which moderated this quarter and will further moderate in Q4. We committed at our Investor Day last fall to 58% efficiency by 2021 and we are focused on delivering that outcome for our shareholders. So we feel good about our momentum on both of these objectives and will continue to have a sharp focus on them going forward, regardless of the environment we're operating in.
Overall, we're executing on our strategies, and they position the bank for sustainable performance going forward.
So thank you all for your time today and we look forward to speaking to you again on the Q4 call in December.

谢谢运营商。正如我之前所说,我们的业务继续保持强劲的经营业绩,本季度和今年的PPPT增长良好,而信贷损失从非常低的水平上升,因为我们谨慎地增加了履行贷款的准备金。正如Pat解释的那样,投资组合中的信用质量仍然很高。

回到2018财年初,我们与您讨论了两个明确的目标。第一,以比银行和其他银行更快的速度增长美国业务,提高整体银行的效率表现。现在,差不多两年后,我们对这些目标的更新仍然非常积极。我们将美国业务的银行收益份额从今天的大约25%提高到大约35%,正如我们之前所说,我们美国分部的收益今年迄今为止增长了24%,我们已经完成了通过谨慎地分享我们的核心业务,并在美国持续实现两位数的PPPT增长。

在效率方面,2017财年,我们调整后的效率比率在我们今天公布的季度中为62.7%。我们突破了60%并提供了59.9%的效率。展望未来,正如汤姆所说,我们明确关注管理费用增长,本季度将有所缓和,并将在第四季度进一步放缓。我们在去年秋天的投资者日承诺到2021年将效率提高到58%,我们专注于为股东提供这一结果。因此,我们对这两个目标的发展势头感到满意,并且无论我们在哪个环境运营,我们都将继续关注它们。

总的来说,我们正在执行我们的战略,并且他们将银行定位为可持续的业绩。

感谢大家今天的时间,我们期待在12月的Q4电话会议上再次与您交谈。

会议主持员

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.

谢谢。 会议现已结束。 请在此时断开您的线路,我们感谢您的参与。

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